Conference USA Football Preview
Steve Merril
Covers.com
Charlotte 49ers (2014: 5-6 SU, 0-0 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +50000
Season win total: 2
Why bet the 49ers: Charlotte will be in their third season under head coach Brad Lambert, and the 49ers return 17 starters from last year's team that went 5-6. Five of their six losses came by 8 points or less, so Charlotte was a competitive team in 2014. Close games tend to reverse the following season, and since the 49ers will likely be underdogs in the majority of their games, they could surprise some opponents in 2015.
Why not bet the 49ers: The team is transitioning from FCS to FBS in 2015. And in fact, Charlotte has never played an FBS opponent before, so the big step-up in class may prove to be too demanding for the 49ers. FBS teams are typically bigger, stronger, and faster than FCS teams, so it will be interesting to see how Charlotte matches-up with their opponents.
Season win total pick: Under 2
Florida Atlantic Owls (2014: 3-9 SU, 6-6 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +3200
Season win total: 5
Why bet the Owls: The team only won 3 games in 2014, but they played much better than their record indicates. Florida Atlantic lost an incredible four games in which they led with less than a minute left to play. With 12 starters returning for the second season under head coach Charlie Partridge, the Owls could surprise in 2015.
Why not bet the Owls: Florida Atlantic was terrible in road games last season. The Owls went 0-7 away from home while getting out-scored 255-96. They can't be trusted on the road until they show some competitiveness. The schedule is also tough as they'll face eight opponents that won 6 games or more last season.
Season win total pick: Over 5
Florida International Golden Panthers (2014: 4-8 SU, 8-4 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +30000
Season win total: 6
Why bet the Golden Panthers: Florida International was much better in head coach Ron Turner's second season despite only winning four games. The Panthers lost four games by 3 points or less, so they were a competitive team in 2014. With 15 returning starters, the Panthers should improve once again in 2015.
Why not bet the Golden Panthers: Ron Turner has only had three winning seasons in eleven years as a head coach. Florida International has had a losing season in eight of the last ten years, so coach and program have a long history of losing. Florida International faces a brutal schedule with seven road games, including four of their first five games coming away from home.
Season win total pick: Under 6
Marshall Thundering Herd (2014: 13-1 SU, 8-5-1 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +230
Season win total: 10
Why bet the Thundering Herd: Marshall is once again the favorite in C-USA East this season, and the favorites to win the overall conference championship. The Thundering Herd also get a favorable schedule as they -avoid the top two teams (LA Tech and Rice) from the West division. Marshall has the most talent in C-USA, so they are deserving of their high expectations.
Why not bet the Thundering Herd: The Thundering Herd only returns 11 starters, and they must replace quarterback Rakeem Cato who threw for 3,903 yards and 40 touchdown passes in 2014. Marshall's offense averaged 45.6 points per game in 2014, and it's highly unlikely they'll repeat that in 2015.
Season win total pick: Over 10
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (2014: 6-6 SU, 5-6-1 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +1400
Season win total: 7
Why bet the Blue Raiders: Middle Tennessee State returns 16 starters this season, and they've been excellent in conference play. The Blue Raiders are 11-5 SU against conference opponents over the last two years, and this year's team is more talented and more experienced.
Why not bet the Blue Raiders: MTSU's defense inexplicably had a bad season in 2014. The stop unit was projected to be one of the best in the conference, but they allowed 31.5 points and 452 yards per game. Middle Tennessee's season hinges on the play of their defense, and a repeat of 2014 will make them an average team in 2015.
Season win total pick: Under 7
Old Dominion Monarchs (2014: 6-6 SU, 4-8 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +5000
Season win total: 4
Why bet the Monarchs: Old Dominion went a respectable 6-6 in their first full year in the FBS. The Monarchs have a winning program; they are 52-20 SU over the last ten years. Head coach Bobby Wilder begins his 7th season, and he's built a potent offensive system that has averaged 32.7 points per game or more in all six of his years at Old Dominion.
Why not bet the Monarchs: Old Dominion's problem has been on the defensive side of the ball. The Monarchs have allowed an average of 36 points and 452 yards per game over the last two years. They only return 5 starters on defense this season, and there's nothing to suggest the stop unit will be improved.
Season win total pick: Over 4
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (2014: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +305
Season win total: 7
Why bet the Hilltoppers: Western Kentucky's offense projects to be explosive once again this season with 7 starters returning, including QB Brandon Doughty. The Hilltoppers averaged 44.4 points per game in 2014 under first-year head coach Jeff Brohm. Western Kentucky will be a tough team to stop in 2015.
Why not bet the Hilltoppers: The team returns 9 starters on defense, but numerous question marks still remain. The unit gave up 39.9 points on 510 yards per game last season, so major improvement is needed if Western Kentucky wants to take a step forward.
Season win total pick: Over 7
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (2014: 9-5 SU, 11-3 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +280
Season win total: 8
Why bet the Bulldogs: Louisiana Tech is in their third year under head coach Skip Holtz, and the Bulldogs are the clear-cut favorites to win the West. The Bulldogs will have Florida transfer Jeff Driskel at quarterback, so the offense shouldn't skip a beat after averaging 37.4 points per game in 2014.
Why not bet the Bulldogs: Last season, Louisiana Tech fielded a strong and opportunistic defense. They gave up just 24.7 points per game while forcing 42 turnovers, the most in the nation. However, only six starters return on the stop unit, so their numbers are quite likely to regress sharply in 2015.
Season win total pick: Over 8
North Texas Mean Green (2014: 4-8 SU, 4-8 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +8000
Season win total: 5
Why bet the Mean Green: North Texas has a pretty good defense based on C-USA standards. The Mean Green returns six starters from a unit that only allowed 29.8 points per game in 2014. They only had four defensive starters return last season, so they turned in a decent result considering the circumstances. Their ability to play solid defense may be enough to keep them competitive.
Why not bet the Mean Green: The team has a slew of question marks on the offensive side of the ball, especially along the line. North Texas must replace four starters on the line, and their quarterback situation remains in flux. The Mean Green also play a brutal schedule that includes seven true road games.
Season win total pick: Under 5
Rice Owls (2014: 8-5 SU, 9-4 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +700
Season win total: 7
Why bet the Owls: Rice is 18-9 over the last two seasons, so they come into the 2015 season with confidence and momentum. The Owls' best offensive attribute is their running game, and their ability to possess the ball and control the clock makes them very competitive in this conference.
Why not bet the Owls: Rice only returns three starters on defense, so they are basically starting over on that side of the ball. The Owls tend to get overwhelmed by strong offenses, and that will be the case once again this season, especially with little experience returning.
Season win total pick: Under 7
Southern Miss Golden Eagles (2014: 3-9 SU, 4-7-1 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +5000
Season win total: 4
Why bet the Golden Eagles: The Golden Eagles return 16 starters, and they will be in the third year of head coach Todd Monken's system. Improvement often occurs in the third year of a coach's tenure, especially when the offense and defense was better than the season before.
Why not bet the Golden Eagles: Southern Miss is an ugly 4-32 SU over the last three years. The offense returns ten starters, so they'll have no excuse in 2015, but we're still talking about a unit that only averaged 19 points per game last season. Southern Miss has been an underdog in 20 of their last 24 games, but they project to be favored in half of their games this season. Backing losing teams when laying points is not a winning strategy.
Season win total pick: Over 4
UTEP Miners (2014: 7-6 SU, 8-4-1 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +3200
Season win total: 6
Why bet the Miners: UTEP will be in the third year of head coach Sean Kugler's system. Kugler cleaned out the dead weight, and the team responded by going 7-6 in 2014. The team is built to be a physical running team, and their offensive line is one of the best in C-USA. The Miners can control the clock, and that alone can keep them competitive.
Why not bet the Miners: The Miners shocked everybody last year by making a bowl game. But UTEP only returns 11 starters in 2015, and their unexpected reversal of form sets them up to regress a bit. The Miners were actually out-scored 28.1-26.6 in 2014 despite having a winning record. UTEP will likely be a .500 team at best in 2015.
Season win total pick: Over 6
UTSA Roadrunners (2014: 4-8 SU, 4-8 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +10000
Season win total: 2
Why bet the Roadrunners: UTSA returned one of the most experienced teams in the country last year as 20 starters were back. Expectations were extremely high, but the team disappointed, going just 4-8 SU and ATS. The opposite is the case in 2015 as expectations are low with only six returning starters. The Roadrunners will be underdogs in just about every game, so they may be able to sneak inside the big numbers.
Why not bet the Roadrunners: The Roadrunners are one of the least experienced teams in all of college football this season. Their first four games are all extremely tough with road games at Arizona and Oklahoma State while hosting Kansas State and Colorado State. UTEP's confidence will be quite low after September, so tread lightly when backing this team in conference play.
Season win total pick: Over 2