Conference - USA Preview
By Marc Lawrence
‘Welcome Back’ is the theme in 2010 in the C-USA. Its 2009 Most Valuable Player (Houston QB Case Keenum), its 2009 Defensive Player of the Year (UCF DE Bruce Miller) and its 2009 Special Teams Player of the Year (East Carolina WR/KR Dwayne Harris), all seniors, are back,
In addition, former Memphis RB Larry Porter and former ECU DB Ruffin McNeill each return to their alma maters as new head coaches in 2010.
This up and coming loop has sent six teams to post-season in four of the past five seasons, while going 10-6 SU and 12-4 ATS against .666 or greater opposition in those games.
Southern Miss takes an eight-year bowl skein into this campaign.
SMU was the most-improved team in the FBS during the 2009 season. The Mustangs won seven more games last year than they did in 2008.
In closing, remember this about this never-say-die conference: since its inception, CUSA underdogs are 21-13 ATS in non-conference battles in which both teams are undefeated, including 17-8 ATS as a dog of seven or more points.
It’s like John Sebastian once said, “Yeah we tease him a lot cause we've hot him on the spot, welcome back, welcome back, welcome back…
Note: Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.
East Division
ALABAMA BIRMINGHAM – 8 / 9
TEAM THEME: BLAZING INFERNO
The Blazers have improved each year under HC Neil Callaway but the Birmingham brigade is clamoring for the 4th-year HC to bring home UAB’s first winning season (and bowl appearance) since 2004. It appears Callaway is starting to buckle under the pressure and is looking for the quick fix as he signed a nation-high 12 junior-college transfers. “We got a good mixture of people at every position,’ said Callaway. “I really think we helped ourselves at every spot and with the number of JC guys that we’ve signed, I think we got some immediate help.” Help is on the way in the form of nine returning starters for a defense that slipped a titch in 2009. The 22nd-ranked offense, which was boosted by the return of the entire unit last year, should once again be productive with the return of eight starters – though Callaway will have to replace versatile QB Joe Webb. The heat is on.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. East Carolina (11/13)
CENTRAL FLORIDA – 8 / 7
TEAM THEME: ODD OCCURRENCE
George O’Leary may want to turn the calendar ahead – say a year from now. The 7th-year HC has had terrific success in odd numbered years (26-14, three bowl appearances) while the even-numbered seasons have been brutal (8-27, zero bowls). If 2010 is going to show any promise, it will start with a rush defense that was tops in Conference USA and No. 4 nationally. C-USA defensive player of the year, Bruce Miller, returns for his senior season. The All-America candidate leads all active players nationally with 27 sacks and 44 tackles for a loss. Offensively, junior RB Byrnn Harvey (1,109 rushing yards, 14 TD’s) spearheads the Knights attack. Harvey actually had more yards in his sophomore season than highly-touted Kevin Smith had in his second year with the Knights. ‘Even’ though the calendar says 2010, the Knights ‘oddly’ enough should be competitive.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. UAB (10/6)
EAST CAROLINA – 5 / 2
TEAM THEME: ‘RUFFIN IT’
After escalating the ECU program to new heights, Skip Holtz couldn’t say no to a multi-million dollar offer from South Florida – his reward for putting the Pirates on the map. Enter former ECU defensive back and assistant, Ruffin McNeill. College football’s 13th minority head coach inherits a defense that led the nation in red-zone scoring defense (71.6%) and one that enjoyed the squad’s highest take-away total (34) since 1996. It may be awhile before Greenville sees those numbers again as McNeil also inherits a stop unit that returns just two starters and no linemen. While Holtz had the luxury of 52 returning letterman and 16 returning starters in 2009, Ruffin won’t enjoy the same – just 43 returnees and 7 total starters back for 2010. Early stops at Blacksburg and Chapel Hill will have us jumping ship before this voyage gets set for its September sail.
PLAY ON: vs. SMU (11/26)
MARSHALL – *7 / 7
TEAM THEME: THE DOCTOR IS IN
A native of Hurricane, WV and widely regarded as one of the country’s best recruiters, John ‘Doc’ Holliday brings an impressive resumé to Huntington. An associate head coach at West Virginia and Florida, Holliday will need to operate with the skill of a surgeon in order to escape the wrath of a brutal season-opening schedule that is laced with seven consecutive bowl teams – who combined for a 60-33 record. Fourteen returning starters, including a pair of QB’s that have started 24 games the past two seasons, should help in the procedure. So should a home field that has seen the Herd post a 118-19 record at Joan C. Edwards Stadium. Need some bar bet material? That .866 win percentage is No. 1 all-time in Division 1 football as Alabama (.825) and Bear Bryant Stadium rank a distant second. Holliday will like those house calls.
PLAY ON: vs. East Carolina (10/23)
MEMPHIS – 7 / 7
TEAM THEME: PORTER HOUSE
When Tommy West was pink-slipped in early November last season, he held a fiery press conference saying, “This is not a good day at the office. We’ve got to help this football program… or do away with it.” Help is on the way in the form of new coach Larry Porter, former MSU running back and most recently RB coach and chief recruiter at LSU. Asking every player to ‘Invest in the Helmet’, Porter contends all positions are open. Porter’s first priority will be patching up a defense that was over 100 YPG worse last season than in 2008.With only one QB on the roster that has taken a collegiate snap and rail-thin at WR where the top two receivers in school history are gone, it may be a while before dividends from his recruiting efforts are realized. Porter and the Tigers look to be raw in 2010.
PASS
SOUTHERN MISS – *4 / 9
TEAM THEME: HOLD ON TO YOUR HATS
We’re not quite ready to give another tip of the hat to Larry Fedora but the third-year head coach has kept one important Southern Miss tradition going – winning. Thanks to a season-ending five-game win streak in 2008 and season-opening hat trick in 2009, the Golden Eagles have recorded 16 straight winning campaigns… albeit, by the skin of their teeth. But 2009 saw the both sides of the ball take a slight step backwards. Nine returning starters should help the stop unit turn it around but improving an offense that loses record-setting RB Damion Fletcher and four offensive linemen will be Fedora’s main concern. The good news is there is plenty of experience at the QB position with the expected return of Austin Davis, who sat out most of last season after tearing a ligament in his foot. ‘Favre’ be it for us to say, but something could be amiss in Hattiesburg this season.
PLAY ON: vs. UAB (10/30)
West Division
HOUSTON – *9 / 7
TEAM THEME: A ‘CASE’ FOR THE HEISMAN
QB Case Keenum and his supporting cast are back and the Cougars are billing him as a legitimate Heisman candidate. And why not? His numbers speak for themselves as he is on the cusp of breaking every NCAA total offense and passing mark. With his top three wideouts all back (each with 85 or more catches), Keenum will likely become the first QB in college football history to throw for 5,000 yards three years in succession. How good has this offense been, you ask? Over the past two seasons, the Cougars have been held to under 28 points just three times while ringing up 40 or more points on 16 occasions! A couple of disappointing season-ending losses, including a throttling by Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl, should have Keenum and company on the offensive early – and quite often.
PLAY ON: vs. Central Florida (11/5)
RICE – 9 / 9
TEAM THEME: BABY OWLS
The biggest collapse of all FBS programs in 2009 (from 10-3 to 2-10) resulted in a major overhaul to David Bailiff’s coaching staff. In Bailiff’s defense (or lack of one last year), 75 starts were lost to injuries. As a result, 14 starters on the 2009 squad were either freshmen or sophomores on the two-deep roster, matching Louisiana Tech for the youngest starting lineup in the nation. In fact, 22 Owls made their first collegiate start last year. The owlets started to show a little maturity late in the season with a pair of home wins over Tulane and UTEP. The good news is 18 starters who experienced those victories are back. The bad news is they may have to wait an extra week as their 2010 opener finds them playing Texas. That may not be so bad because, like last year, there’s only one way to go – and that’s up!
PLAY ON: as dog vs. SMU (10/2) – *KEY
SMU – *8 / 7
TEAM THEME: PAROLED
Apparently there IS life after death. 2009 saw the Mustangs go bowling for the first time since 1984, two years prior to their infamous ‘death sentence.’ It didn’t take long for June Jones to put his stamp on the program as both the offense and defense took huge strides. After being outscored 458-202 in 2008, the Mustangs got the better of the opposition in 2009 by a 380-359 count – a 277-point turnaround! No wonder they improved a nation’s-best seven games last season. They were also the only team in the country to outgain Houston during the regular season and hold Nevada’s potent rushing attack to over 200 yards below their season average. All this, with the 4th youngest team in the nation as 29 off 44 players on the two-deep roster were either freshmen or sophomores. With a target squarely on their backs, can the Mustangs once again live to tell about it?
PLAY AGAINST: vs. UTEP (11/6)
TEXAS EL PASO – *7 / 4
TEAM THEME: DASHING AND DARING
It’s been five years since HC Mike Price has brought a winner to West Texas but there’s a lot to fall in love with in El Paso this year – and it’s not a Mexican girl. QB Trevor Vittatoe, who broke UTEP passing records with three 3,000-yard passing seasons, is back. So is RB Donald Buckram (1,594 rushing yards) – one of only two backs (Toby Gerhart) to rush for 200-plus yards in three separate contests last season. “I think he’ll be even better this year. He’s bigger. He could be 200 pounds by the time the season starts,” gushes Price of Buckram. Eight all-conference honorees also return to El Paso in 2010. The schedule lends support to a big year, as well, as the Miners face only one team in the first eight games that sported a winning record in 2009. If Price can figure out a way to win the close ones (lost five games by a TD or less), then this season could be as “wild as the West Texas wind.”
PLAY ON: as dog vs. UAB (10/16)
TULANE – *7 / 4
TEAM THEME: TOLEDO, TOO LATE
After three seasons and a 9-27 record, Bob Toledo has learned that coaching in New Orleans is not so easy. That is, if you’re the head man at Tulane. With the loss of leading rusher Andre Anderson, another big losing campaign is likely and it’s doubtful Toledo will be back to man the Green Wave sidelines for his wooden anniversary. While there are no ball carriers with any significant experience on the roster, QB Ryan Griffin is back after starting the final six games and putting up solid numbers (1,143 yards, 8 TD’s) as a freshman in 2009. Toledo will have to improve on a 1-7 conference mark in each of the last two seasons if he has any chance of staying Green. A four-game home stand late in the year may help his cause but the feeling here is it will be too little, too late. Wave goodbye, Bob.
PLAY ON: vs. Army (10/9)
TULSA – *9 / 5
TEAM THEME: MISSION: REVENGE
A 5-7 campaign, on the heels of four straight winning seasons in which they averaged 9.5 wins a year, makes the Hurricane a certified ‘Mission Team’ in 2010. The mission will be to rejuvenate an offense that dropped 160 YPG and 18 PPG. The mission leader is QB G.J. Kinne who passed for 2,732 yards and 22 TD’s, while also leading the team in rushing yards (393 yards) and TD’s (5). Kinne is the only player in school history to pass for 300 yards and rush for 100 yards in the same game. WR/KR Damaris Johnson, the nation’s 2009 leader in all-purpose yards with a 224 YPG, looks to make another statement in 2010. Three of the top five tacklers return to a defense that actually improved in points against but slipped in total yards allowed. Despite a road schedule that includes four winning teams and Notre Dame, a soft home schedule makes this mission entirely possible.
PLAY ON: vs. Southern Miss (11/27) – *Key as dog
C-USA Betting Preview
By Ben Burns
Houston is the consensus favorite in Conference USA.
That should tell you where CUSA sits on the nation’s totem pole, somewhere just above the WAC.
Yes, Houston has its hot-shot Heisman candidate quarterback in Case Keenum. But in case you forgot, he’s the same hot-shot that tossed nine picks in the final two games last season. Both were losses by the way, including getting blown out by Air Force in Armed Forces Bowl. Air Force’s vaunted defense intercepted Keenum six times en route to 37-20 rout.
For giggles, let’s give Keenum a pass and try to believe that he’ll use his awful finish to last season as motivation for this year. We’ll even give the nod to the Cougars as the conference’s best team. But then who? And, besides Keenum, how many big-name stars can name out of CUSA?
Southern Miss wide receiver DeAndre Brown’s a nice player, so is UTEP’s senior quarterback-running back combination of Trevor Vittatoe and Donald Buckram. But, overall, CUSA’s talent level seems to have dropped.
Will the questionable talent be evident when it’s time to step out of conference? CUSA teams went 4-24 against BCS competition last season, but were 17-9 against non-BCS opponents. The most impressive of those non-BCS wins may have been SMU’s 45-10 drubbing of a red-hot Nevada team in the Hawaii Bowl. The Mustangs were 12.5-point underdogs.
While June Jones has SMU on the rise, there are bunch of programs on the decline and a few that are having trouble finding their way out of rock bottom.
Two-time defending conference champion East Carolina must replace a ton of talent, including a proven coach in Skip Holtz with an unproven one in Ruffin McNeill. Marshall and Memphis also made coaching changes.
UAB stuck with Neil Callaway, despite his three-year 11-25 record. Tulane resided to keep Bob Toledo and his 9-27 mark for a fourth year. There have been exactly zero signs of either of those programs turning things around.
Some pundits are touting Tulsa, UTEP, Central Florida and even Rice as possible contenders. Again, when a program like Rice is believed to have enough talent to compete for a conference title, it really puts into perspective the league’s overall strength.
To summarize, CUSA is poised to take a step backwards this season. Handicappers who correctly gauge just how far the league’s teams will fall stand to make a profit.
Conference USA Odds & Ends
(ATS records from last three years)
Houston Cougars
ATS: 17-20 (Home: 8-5. Away: 7-12)
Thing to remember: Under coach Kevin Sumlin, the Cougs are starting to build a significant home-field advantage at Robertson Stadium. Houston is 7-1 ATS at home in Sumlin’s two seasons.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
ATS: 17-20-1 (Home: 9-8. Away: 6-12-1)
Thing to remember: In coach Todd Graham’s first two seasons, the Golden Hurricane were ultra-explosive. Tulsa averaged 47 points per game in 2009. But last year, trying to work in a new quarterback, the Golden Hurricane scored just under 30 a game.
Now, with a year under his belt, quarterback GJ Kinne, a Texas transfer, leads a versatile offense loaded with playmakers like wideout Damaris Johnson, who led the nation in total yardage last year.
UTEP Miners
ATS: 17-18 (Home: 8-9. Away: 8-9)
Thing to remember: Senior quarterback Trevor Vittatoe has an offensive line made up of five seniors. The Miners have averaged 31.8 points per game in Mike Price’s six seasons. But the defense has surrendered 34.7 in the last four seasons.
Rice Owls
ATS: 18-17-1 (Home: 9-8-1. Away: 8-10)
Thing to remember: A conference-high 18 starters, nine on each side, return for the Owls.
SMU Mustangs
ATS: 15-19-1 (Home: 4-11. Away: 10-7-1)
Thing to remember: June Jones really got things turned around in his third season at Hawaii. With time to adjust to Jones’ system, the Warriors went 9-3 straight up and 7-4 against the spread in his third year. Now, at SMU, Jones enters his third season with 15 returning starters, including his quarterback and four offensive linemen.
Tulane Green Wave
ATS: 13-21 (Home: 5-12. Away: 8-9)
Thing to remember: The Green Wave haven’t posted a winning ATS record in six years. With only four returning starters on defense and an offense severely lacking playmakers, breaking that streak will be difficult for coach Bob Toledo.
Central Florida Knights
ATS: 22-14-1 (Home: 11-6-1. Away: 11-6)
Thing to remember: Since joining Conference USA in 2005, coach George O’Leary’s program has been a cash cow for bettors. The Knights are 26-15-1 ATS in conference play the past five seasons, including a stellar 7-1 ATS mark last year.
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
ATS: 20-17 (Home: 7-9. Away: 11-7)
Thing to remember: The Eagles have averaged over 30 points per game in coach Larry Fedora’s two years. But this year, they return only three starters on offense. Only one starter returns on an offensive line that has by far the least amount of career starts in the conference at 26, according to Phil Steele.
UAB Blazers
ATS: 16-17-1 (Home: 7-5-1. Away: 9-12)
Thing to remember: UAB has had trouble competing with teams from BCS conferences in coach Neil Callaway’s three seasons. The Blazers are 0-7 against BCS conference teams under Calloway, losing by an average margin of 21 points in those contests.
Marshall Thundering Herd
ATS: 15-13-1 (Home: 6-8-1. Away: 8-10)
Thing to remember: The Herd’s top cornerback DeQuan Bembry was dismissed from the team after a July arrest, leaving new coach Doc Holliday with just four viable options at corner on the roster.
East Carolina Pirates
ATS: 20-19-1 (Home: 9-7-1. Away: 8-11)
Thing to remember: New coach Ruffin McNeill inherits a team with a conference-low eight returning starters, including just two on defense. McNeill, a former assistant under Mike Leach at Texas Tech, spent the offseason installing his version of Leach’s “Air Raid” offense. Walk-on Brad Wornick appears to be the favorite to start at quarterback, but Boston College-transfer Dominique Davis also will get a look.
Memphis Tigers
ATS: 13-20-1 (Home: 7-8. Away: 6-7-1)
Thing to remember: First-year coach Larry Porter has stressed that his defense will be the strength of his team. Filtering the coach speak out of that, it really means the offense could struggle mightily. During the offseason, he often talked in future tense when addressing the offense, stuff like “eventually our fans will be excited about our offense.” Eventually?
High-octane Houston the class of C-USA football
By: Steve Makinen
Conference USA has become widely known for its offensive prowess, or perhaps rather, its defensive ineptitude. There figures to be much of the same in 2010 as quite possibly the country’s best offense resides in this league, that of Kevin Sumlin and Houston. The Cougars, led by Heisman Trophy candidate Case Keenum will be tough to stop, albeit by their regular C-USA foes, or by two of its bigger non-conference opponents, UCLA and Texas Tech. There is a good chance that they could go unbeaten if the defense can shoulder more of its share of the load this season. In any case, they will be fun to watch and are the overwhelming favorite to take the title in this league, which could be down for 2010. In the East Division, two-time defending champion East Carolina is beginning anew under Ruffin McNeil, minus many major contributors. UCF is being recognized as the new favorite to represent that division in the league title game in December. Marshall can’t be overlooked though and Southern Miss is usually a threat as well. In the West, should Houston slip up, the top challengers will be SMU and to a lesser degree, Tulsa and UTEP. Other than at Houston and Tulsa, many of the real big offensive names from the last few years have left this conference, could this be the year that the defenses finally gain some ground?
2010 Predicted Finish
EAST DIVISION
1. UCF
2. Marshall
3. Southern Miss
4. UAB
5. East Carolina
6. Memphis
WEST DIVISION
1. Houston
2. SMU
3. Tulsa
4. UTEP
5. Rice
6. Tulane
EAST DIVISION
E CAROLINA PIRATES
Head Coach: Ruffin McNeill, 1st year (0-0 SU)
2009 Record: 9-5 SU, 7-6 ATS
Offense: Spread - Starters Returning: 5
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 2
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +5.1 (#45 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +6.1 (#39 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 38 (#58 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/5 - TULSA
9/11 - MEMPHIS
9/18 - at Virginia Tech
10/2 - at N Carolina
10/9 - at Southern Miss
10/16 - NC STATE
10/23 - MARSHALL
10/30 - at UCF
11/6 - NAVY
11/11 - at UAB
11/20 - at Rice
11/26 - SMU
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 9-5, 26-15 (63%)
Overall ATS: 7-6, 20-20 (50%)
at Home ATS: 3-3, 9-8 (53%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 4-3, 11-12 (48%)
vs Conference ATS: 6-3, 15-11 (58%)
as Favorite ATS: 4-3, 9-14 (39%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-3, 11-6 (65%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 32.57 (72)
Points Scored - Allowed: 27.0 (62) - 21.9 (36)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 369.4 (67) - 378.3 (72)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.27 (77) - 5.38 (57)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.02 (70) - 3.75 (45)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 6.73 (87) - 6.75 (44)
Turnover Differential: +0.8 (9)
2010 OUTLOOK
After leading East Carolina to back-to-back victories in the Conference USA Championship Game, coach Skip Holtz ended his five-year tenure by moving on to South Florida. Replacing Holtz is Ruffin McNeill, who for the past 10 years has been at Texas Tech, serving as defensive coordinator the last two seasons. McNeill has his work cut out, having to replace 28 seniors, including nine who were starters on defense…East Carolina will be switching from the multiple offense it ran under Holtz to a spread attack that new coordinator Lincoln Riley was familiar with at Texas Tech, with Riley having served as a receivers coach. The Pirates ranked just eighth in total offense in C-USA, averaging 369.4 YPG. Replacing multi-year starter Patrick Pinkney at quarterback is sophomore walk-on Brad Wornick, who didn’t see any game action in 2009. The most starting experience on the offense returns in the interior line, with a trio of senior starters…The defensive unit has been a key factor in the Pirates winning 18 games and a pair of C-USA titles over the past two seasons. In 2009, the Pirates led C-USA in scoring defense for the second straight year (21.9 PPG) and were third in total defense (378.3 YPG). The early part of the campaign could be bumpy, however, with McNeill switching from a multiple to a 4-3 alignment while finding nine new starters…A third straight C-USA championship isn’t in the cards for the Pirates, as they break in a new head coach and coaching staff and new systems on both offense and defense. How quickly the passing game and the inexperienced defense come together will determine if the Pirates can somehow snare another bowl bid.
STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* E CAROLINA is on a 18-4 ATS (+13.6 Units) run as road underdogs of 7 points or less . The Average Score was E CAROLINA 24.8, OPPONENT 23.6
MARSHALL THUNDERING HERD
Head Coach: John Holliday, 1st year (First Year SU)
2009 Record: 7-6 SU, 7-5 ATS
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 7
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 7
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -2.5 (#80 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -2.7 (#78 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 27 (#91 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/2 - at Ohio St
9/10 - W VIRGINIA
9/18 - at Bowling Green
9/25 - OHIO U
10/2 - at Southern Miss
10/13 - UCF
10/23 - at E Carolina
10/30 - UTEP
11/6 - at UAB
11/13 - MEMPHIS
11/20 - at SMU
11/27 - TULANE
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 7-6, 14-23 (38%)
Overall ATS: 7-5, 16-18 (47%)
at Home ATS: 2-3, 7-8 (47%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 5-2, 9-10 (47%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-4, 12-12 (50%)
as Favorite ATS: 2-1, 3-5 (38%)
as Underdog ATS: 5-4, 13-13 (50%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 30.23 (86)
Points Scored - Allowed: 21.8 (96) - 24.3 (54)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 349.1 (81) - 371.8 (66)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.19 (84) - 5.71 (80)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.94 (72) - 4.33 (83)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 6.64 (92) - 6.97 (54)
Turnover Differential: -0.3 (81)
2010 OUTLOOK
Marshall ended its string of four straight losing seasons under head coach Mark Snyder by going 6-6, but he resigned at the end of the regular season. The Thundering Herd finished on a high note, however, posting the school’s first bowl victory since 2002 by defeating Ohio, 21-17, in Detroit. Doc Holliday, the associate head coach at West Virginia the past two years and a 31-year sideline veteran, is the new head coach…Marshall continued to have its trouble on offense, going through a six-game stretch where it scored 17 points or fewer. The Thundering Herd were ninth in Conference USA in total offense (349.1 YPG) and 10th in scoring offense (21.8 PPG). As was the case in 2008, the running game proved to be more successful for the Herd, as they were fourth in rushing (142.7 yards per game) and just 10th in passing (206.4). However, leading rusher Darius Marshall declared early for the NFL Draft. Senior Brian Anderson, who started every game last season, is expected to retain his hold on the starting quarterback spot…Marshall’s stop unit fared much better on C-USA’s stat charts than did the offense, as the Herd were second in the conference in total defense, allowing 371.8 YPG, and third overall in scoring defense, giving up 24.3 PPG. The standout among the unit’s seven returning starters is junior linebacker Mario Harvey…Holliday has made numerous coaching stops is known as a skilled recruiter. He inherits a team that finally pushed over the .500 mark after a long dry spell, and one that has its sights set on returning to another bowl game. Expect Holliday to help Marshall continue its climb up the ladder in C-USA.
STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* MARSHALL is on a 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) skid on the road coming off a non-conference game . The Average Score was MARSHALL 23, OPPONENT 26.3
MEMPHIS TIGERS
Head Coach: Larry Porter, 1st year (First Year SU)
2009 Record: 2-10 SU, 3-9 ATS
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 7
Defense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 7
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -13.0 (#111 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -11.4 (#110 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 22 (#101 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 - at Mississippi St
9/11 - at E Carolina
9/18 - MIDDLE TENN ST
9/25 - at UTEP
10/2 - TULSA
10/9 - at Louisville
10/16 - SOUTHERN MISS
10/30 - HOUSTON
11/6 - TENNESSEE
11/13 - at Marshall
11/20 - at UAB
11/27 - UCF
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 2-10, 15-23 (39%)
Overall ATS: 3-9, 15-20 (43%)
at Home ATS: 2-4, 8-10 (44%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 1-5, 7-10 (41%)
vs Conference ATS: 2-6, 11-12 (48%)
as Favorite ATS: 0-1, 4-5 (44%)
as Underdog ATS: 2-8, 10-15 (40%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 33.42 (69)
Points Scored - Allowed: 21.8 (95) - 34.8 (110)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 374.3 (63) - 457.5 (116)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.35 (72) - 6.43 (109)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.39 (52) - 4.43 (90)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 6.38 (99) - 8.90 (116)
Turnover Differential: -0.8 (107)
2010 OUTLOOK
Larry Porter, who spent four years as a running back for Memphis in the early 1990s, has returned as the Tigers’ new head coach. Porter has spent the last five years at LSU, overseeing the running backs while also serving as assistant head coach and chief recruiter. He is replacing Tommy West, who did lead the Tigers to a pair of bowl wins during his nine years, but who was just 49-61 overall and 2-10 in 2009…The offense was all but gutted by the departure of several skill position players, including the top two receivers, the leading rusher and the starting quarterback. With those players in the lineup the Tigers were seventh in Conference USA in total offense (374.3 YPG) and ninth in scoring (21.8 PPG). Redshirt sophomore Tyler Bass is the most experienced quarterback returnee but will be pushed. The strength of the offense will no doubt be the line, where all five starters return… The Tigers gave up 249 points during a season-closing six-game losing streak, and that stretch sunk Memphis down to 11th in C-USA in total defense (457.5 YPG) and 10th in scoring defense (34.8 PPG). If the Tigers hope to avoid double digits in losses again those numbers will have to show a significant improvement. Seven starters are back…The Tigers have finished below the .500 mark in three of the past four seasons, and with a first-time head coach at the helm, and the loss of several key skill position players from the offensive unit, another difficult campaign is looming for Memphis. The odds appear too steep for the Tigers to be able to win more than three or four games.
STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* MEMPHIS is on a 10-0 ATS (+10 Units) run at home vs. teams scoring 31 or more PPG . The Average Score was MEMPHIS 26.6, OPPONENT 27.7
SOUTHERN MISS GOLDEN EAGLES
Head Coach: Larry Fedora, 3rd year (14-12 SU)
2009 Record: 7-6 SU, 6-6 ATS
Offense: Spread - Starters Returning: 4
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 9
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +7.1 (#35 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +1.4 (#63 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 36 (#62 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/2 - at S Carolina
9/11 - PRAIRIE VIEW
9/17 - KANSAS
9/25 - at Louisiana Tech
10/2 - MARSHALL
10/9 - E CAROLINA
10/16 - at Memphis
10/30 - UAB
11/6 - at Tulane
11/13 - at UCF
11/20 - HOUSTON
11/26 - at Tulsa
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 7-6, 21-18 (54%)
Overall ATS: 6-6, 20-17 (54%)
at Home ATS: 3-2, 7-9 (44%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-4, 13-8 (62%)
vs Conference ATS: 5-3, 14-10 (58%)
as Favorite ATS: 4-5, 14-12 (54%)
as Underdog ATS: 2-1, 6-5 (55%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 29.15 (99)
Points Scored - Allowed: 32.9 (18) - 25.8 (62)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 418.3 (30) - 392.5 (81)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 6.02 (29) - 5.38 (56)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.66 (30) - 3.64 (37)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 7.77 (30) - 7.07 (57)
Turnover Differential: +0.8 (10)
2010 OUTLOOK
Southern Miss wrapped up a 16th straight winning season in ‘09, but the Golden Eagles didn’t finish up the campaign the way they were hoping, losing their C-USA finale at East Carolina and then dropping a 42-32 decision to Middle Tennessee in the New Orleans Bowl, the school’s eighth consecutive bowl trip. Head coach Larry Fedora has put together back-to-back 7-6 campaigns, but with just four starters back on offense, producing a school record-tying 17th straight winning season could be a tough task…For the second consecutive season the Golden Eagles showcased a very effective run-pass balance, winding up second in C-USA in rushing (183.3 YPG) and fifth in passing (235.0). They placed fourth in total offense (418.3) and second in scoring (32.9 PPG). Offensive questions abound with a potential shared quarterback situation between Austin Davis and Martevious Young, as well as the departure of RB Damion Fletcher. The team’s leading receiver, junior DeAndre Brown does return. The loss of starting personnel on the line is not encouraging either, with only the center returning for action... A veteran defensive unit helped the Golden Eagles place fourth in conference in both scoring (25.8 PPG) and total defense (392.5 YPG). The good news is that the losses aren’t nearly as severe, and in fact nine starters return to the stop unit. The foundation of the defense will be at linebacker, with all four starters returning…Southern Miss usually has one of the better defensive units in the conference, and this year will prove no exception. But with the loss of so many productive players on offense, it may take a while for the Golden Eagles to recover.
STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* SOUTHERN MISS is on a 23-7 ATS (+15.3 Units) run on the road in the first month of the season . The Average Score was SOUTHERN MISS 17.8, OPPONENT 21.5
UAB BLAZERS
Head Coach: Neil Callaway, 4th year (11-25 SU)
2009 Record: 5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 8
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 9
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -4.6 (#87 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -6.1 (#90 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 30 (#85 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 - FLA ATLANTIC
9/11 - at SMU
9/18 - TROY
9/25 - at Tennessee
10/6 - at UCF
10/16 - UTEP
10/23 - at Mississippi St
10/30 - at Southern Miss
11/6 - MARSHALL
11/11 - E CAROLINA
11/20 - MEMPHIS
11/27 - at Rice
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 5-7, 11-25 (31%)
Overall ATS: 5-7, 17-16 (52%)
at Home ATS: 3-2, 7-5 (58%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-5, 10-11 (48%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-4, 12-11 (52%)
as Favorite ATS: 3-1, 4-1 (80%)
as Underdog ATS: 2-6, 13-15 (46%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 31.67 (79)
Points Scored - Allowed: 27.8 (59) - 32.3 (102)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 425.9 (22) - 453.3 (113)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 6.78 (6) - 6.36 (105)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 5.96 (2) - 4.19 (75)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 8.08 (20) - 8.35 (112)
Turnover Differential: +0.8 (12)
2010 OUTLOOK
Tough late season matchups with East Carolina and Central Florida left UAB shy of a winning season for the first time since ’04. However, this is head coach Neil Callaway’s fourth season at the school and he has improved the program each year. With 17 starters returning a winning season may be within reach…Led by the arm and legs of multi-talented quarterback Joe Webb, the Conference USA Offensive Player of the Year, the Blazers’ attack was ranked third in Conference USA, averaging 425.9 yards per game. UAB was sixth in scoring (27.8 PPG) and had C-USA’s best rushing attack, averaging just a shade under 230 YPG. Webb has departed, leaving a huge hole in the UAB offense, considering he passed for 2,229 yards and 21 touchdowns and was the team leader in rushing with 1,427 yards and 11 touchdowns. That kind of production is tough to replace but sophomore David Isabelle is looking to take over the quarterback job. UAB is well stocked with returning talent in the receiving corps, and four veteran starters return to the line…Giving up 71 points over the final two games ended any hopes of a bowl bid for the Blazers. Nine starters return to the field for a unit that was eighth in C-USA in scoring defense (32.3 PPG) and 10th in total defense (453.3 YPG). The pass defense was particularly weak…Webb was the offense, so without him in the lineup, the pressure will be on the other returning offensive players to step it up. A winning season will ride on Isabelle’s play and an improved defensive effort.
STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* UAB is on a 7-12 ATS slide as a underdog of a touchdown or more. The Average Score was UAB 18.5, OPPONENT 41.1
UCF GOLDEN KNIGHTS
Head Coach: George O’Leary, 5th year (34-41 SU)
2009 Record: 8-5 SU, 9-3 ATS
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 8
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 7
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +3.6 (#50 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +3.4 (#54 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 35 (#66 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 - S DAKOTA
9/11 - NC STATE
9/18 - at Buffalo
9/25 - at Kansas St
10/6 - UAB
10/13 - at Marshall
10/23 - RICE
10/30 - E CAROLINA
11/5 - at Houston
11/13 - SOUTHERN MISS
11/20 - at Tulane
11/27 - at Memphis
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 8-5, 22-17 (56%)
Overall ATS: 9-3, 23-14 (62%)
at Home ATS: 4-2, 12-6 (67%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 5-1, 11-8 (58%)
vs Conference ATS: 7-1, 17-8 (68%)
as Favorite ATS: 5-1, 11-8 (58%)
as Underdog ATS: 4-2, 12-6 (67%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 31.23 (80)
Points Scored - Allowed: 26.2 (67) - 22.5 (42)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 340.8 (87) - 352.5 (49)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.16 (88) - 5.26 (51)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.54 (99) - 2.66 (3)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 7.21 (57) - 7.62 (89)
Turnover Differential: +0.6 (17)
2010 OUTLOOK
There are two things that Central Florida has been unable to accomplish in George O’Leary’s six years as head coach—put together back-to-back winning seasons and win a bowl game. Last season the Knights placed second in the East Division of Conference USA with a 6-2 mark and finished 8-5 overall, but they were whipped by Rutgers, 45-24, in the St. Petersburg Bowl. UCF has 15 starters returning to try and give O’Leary consecutive winning campaigns… Things weren’t quite as bad on offense for UCF as they were in ’08, when the Knights finished last in C-USA in total offense. Last season the Knights showed some improvement, moving up to 10th in the conference with 340.8 YPG. As for scoring, the Knights were eighth, averaging 26.2 PPG. Rob Calabrese, who made three starts at QB, had only 260 yards passing and three touchdowns and entered spring camp with a hold on the starting job. He’ll be blessed with a good mix of skill position talent and four returning starting linemen… For the second straight season, UCF put forth an excellent defensive effort, leading C-USA in total defense (352.5 yards YPG), placing second in scoring defense (22.5 PPG) and topping the conference against the rush (84.7 YPG). Senior end Bruce Miller, the C-USA Defensive Player of the Year, is the leader of the unit that returns seven total starters…The Knights have enough returning talent to again be a factor in C-USA’s East Division race, and another winning campaign and bowl berth appear to be safe bets for the Knights.
STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* UCF is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) on grass fields since '07. The Average Score was UCF 28, OPPONENT 23
WEST DIVISION
HOUSTON COUGARS
Head Coach: Kevin Sumlin, 3rd year (18-9 SU)
2009 Record: 10-4 SU, 8-5 ATS
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 9
Defense: 3-4 - Starters Returning: 7
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +12.1 (#18 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +7.8 (#30 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 43 (#40 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 - TEXAS ST UNIV
9/10 - UTEP
9/18 - at UCLA
9/25 - TULANE
10/9 - MISSISSIPPI ST
10/16 - at Rice
10/23 - at SMU
10/30 - at Memphis
11/5 - UCF
11/13 - TULSA
11/20 - at Southern Miss
11/27 - at Texas Tech
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 10-4, 26-14 (65%)
Overall ATS: 8-5, 17-20 (46%)
at Home ATS: 5-0, 9-5 (64%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-5, 8-15 (35%)
vs Conference ATS: 5-4, 11-14 (44%)
as Favorite ATS: 5-5, 11-17 (39%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-0, 6-3 (67%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 31.07 (82)
Points Scored - Allowed: 42.2 (1) - 30.1 (95)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 563.2 (1) - 451.3 (111)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 6.86 (5) - 6.02 (99)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.56 (35) - 5.11 (108)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 8.11 (19) - 7.35 (78)
Turnover Differential: +0.3 (42)
2010 OUTLOOK
Charged by a lethal passing attack that shredded opposing secondaries for over 6,000 yards, Houston is coming off only its second 10-win season since 1991. The Cougars won Conference USA’s West Division title but were knocked off by East Carolina 38-32 in the championship game. The Cougars faced Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl, but they fell short of making it two in a row over the Falcons, losing 47-20. Most of the high-powered offense returns and the West Division should again be Houston’s… The Cougars scored 591 points, making the 2009 squad the most prolific in school history, as it easily led C-USA in scoring (42.2 PPG), total yardage (563.2 YPG) and passing offense (430.9 YPG). The total offense and passing numbers were also the top marks in the nation. The player at the controls is senior quarterback Case Keenum, the reigning C-USA MVP. The bad news for opposing defenses is that Keenum has his top three receivers back as well as four starters returning on the line…Houston ranked only ninth in C-USA in total defense, giving up 451.3 YPG, but that was due largely to a weak run defense, which surrendered a conference-high total of 3,172 yards, or 226.6 per game. New coordinator Brian Stewart has installed a 3-4 alignment and will strive to strengthen the unit’s run-stopping ability. Seven starters return…Keenum is looking to wrap up his career in record-breaking fashion, and if he and his wideouts can maintain their production, the Cougars should be able to capture the school’s second C-USA title in the past six years. If all goes really well, this team could go undefeated.
STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* Over the L2 seasons, HOUSTON is 2-10 ATS (-9 Units) as road favorites. The Average Score was HOUSTON 34.3, OPPONENT 38.3
RICE OWLS
Head Coach: David Bailiff, 4th year (15-22 SU)
2009 Record: 2-10 SU, 4-7-1 ATS
Offense: Spread - Starters Returning: 9
Defense: 4-2-5 - Starters Returning: 9
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -24.8 (#119 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -23.3 (#120 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 15 (#115 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 - TEXAS
9/11 - at North Texas
9/18 - NORTHWESTERN
9/25 - BAYLOR
10/2 - SMU
10/9 - at UTEP
10/16 - HOUSTON
10/23 - at UCF
11/6 - at Tulsa
11/13 - at Tulane
11/20 - E CAROLINA
11/27 - UAB
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 2-10, 15-22 (41%)
Overall ATS: 4-7, 18-17 (51%)
at Home ATS: 2-3, 9-7 (56%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-4, 9-10 (47%)
vs Conference ATS: 3-4, 15-8 (65%)
as Favorite ATS: 1-0, 10-3 (77%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-7, 8-14 (36%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 35.33 (57)
Points Scored - Allowed: 18.3 (110) - 43.1 (120)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 304.6 (111) - 464.0 (117)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 4.25 (117) - 6.60 (113)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.22 (107) - 4.73 (99)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 5.19 (117) - 9.09 (118)
Turnover Differential: -0.8 (107)
2010 OUTLOOK
Rice has experienced some wild swings, record-wise, in the three years that David Bailiff has served as head coach. In his first season, 2007, the Owls were just 3-9. But they rebounded the following year, winning 10 games .Last season, flying low again, dropping back to 2-10. There are 18 starters returning and they will look to get the program back on track…The Owls were held under 20 points in seven of their 10 losses, ranking 11th in Conference USA in scoring (18.3 PPG) and 12th in total offense (304.6 YPG). Junior Nick Fanuzzi will again be calling signals at quarterback. A year ago he played in 10 games and managed to throw for 1,598 yards, 11 touchdowns and eight picks, but those numbers were a big drop off from the ones that former starter Chase Clement generated. The two leading ground gainers return in the backfield and they will be looking to take some pressure off Fanuzzi. The interior returns intact, which should bode well for Fanuzzi’s improvement…From the opening-game loss to UAB, which resulted in 44 points for the Blazers to a season-closing 73-14 setback to Houston, the defense was pretty much shredded on a weekly basis, allowing a school-record number of points and finishing last in C-USA in scoring (43.1 PPG) and total defense (464.0 YPG). Nine starters return from the wreckage with an obvious collective chip on their shoulders…Injuries, inconsistency and mounting losses made for a seemingly endless 2009 for Rice. A large group of players who endured that adversity have returned to make amends, but huge improvements on both sides of the ball will be necessary for the Owls to make any progress.
STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* RICE is on a 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) run at home vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. The Average Score was RICE 34.2, OPPONENT 25.9
SMU MUSTANGS
Head Coach: June Jones, 3rd year (9-16 SU)
2009 Record: 8-5 SU, 7-5 ATS
Offense: Run-and-Shoot - Starters Returning: 8
Defense: 3-4 - Starters Returning: 7
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +1.6 (#61 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -0.5 (#71 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 30 (#85 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/5 - at Texas Tech
9/11 - UAB
9/18 - WASHINGTON ST
9/24 - TCU
10/2 - at Rice
10/9 - TULSA
10/16 - at Navy
10/23 - HOUSTON
10/30 - at Tulane
11/6 - at UTEP
11/20 - MARSHALL
11/26 - at E Carolina
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 8-5, 10-27 (27%)
Overall ATS: 7-5, 14-20 (41%)
at Home ATS: 2-3, 4-12 (25%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 5-2, 10-8 (56%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-4, 10-14 (42%)
as Favorite ATS: 0-4, 0-9 (0%)
as Underdog ATS: 7-1, 14-11 (56%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 29.08 (100)
Points Scored - Allowed: 29.2 (45) - 27.6 (80)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 391.8 (51) - 397.1 (85)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.99 (30) - 5.56 (71)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.78 (81) - 4.39 (87)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 7.77 (31) - 6.89 (51)
Turnover Differential: +0.2 (51)
2010 OUTLOOK
Head coach June Jones and his SMU squad entered last season in search of a little stability, having dropped 11 of 12 games the previous year and with the program going 11 straight seasons without posting a winning record. Not only did the Mustangs find stability, they flourished, winning six of eight C-USA games and advancing to a postseason game for the first time since 1984, whipping Nevada, 45-10, in the Hawaii Bowl to finish at 8-5. Jones will rely on 15 returning starters to try and put together back-to-back winning seasons...Although SMU’s Run-and-Shoot passing attack was not in the same galaxy as Houston’s potent air game, the Mustangs still finished second in C-USA, averaging 282.0 yards per game and producing 22 touchdowns. Overall the Ponies were sixth in the conference in total offense (391.8 YPG) and fifth in scoring (29.2 PPG). Sophomore Kyle Padron returns as the starter, after going 6-1 in that role. Although the receiving corps does return three starters, it will be without Emmanuel Sanders, who caught 98 balls. Four experienced linemen, all juniors, return to the interior to give Padron time in the pocket…SMU made huge strides on defense and that played a big part in the team’s turnaround. After finishing last in C-USA in total and scoring defense in 2008, the Mustangs made a strong recovery and moved up to fifth in total defense (397.1 YPG) and sixth in scoring defense (27.6 PPG). Seven starters are back… SMU had the biggest turnaround of any Division I-A team in the nation and now has the attention of every C-USA opponent. There’s a solid base of personnel returning, but challenges are ahead.
STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* SMU is on a 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) skid at home vs. teams giving up 31 or more PPG . The Average Score was SMU 23.5, OPPONENT 26.7
TULANE GREEN WAVE
Head Coach: Bob Toledo, 4th year (9-27 SU)
2009 Record: 3-9 SU, 4-8 ATS
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 7
Defense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 4
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -20.6 (#116 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -20.5 (#116 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 11 (#118 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 - SE LOUISIANA
9/11 - OLE MISS
9/25 - at Houston
10/2 - at Rutgers
10/9 - ARMY
10/16 - at Tulsa
10/23 - at UTEP
10/30 - SMU
11/6 - SOUTHERN MISS
11/13 - RICE
11/20 - UCF
11/27 - at Marshall
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 3-9, 9-27 (25%)
Overall ATS: 4-8, 14-21 (40%)
at Home ATS: 2-4, 6-12 (33%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-4, 8-9 (47%)
vs Conference ATS: 2-6, 7-17 (29%)
as Favorite ATS: 0-0, 1-5 (17%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-8, 12-16 (43%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 30 (89)
Points Scored - Allowed: 16.1 (115) - 36.7 (115)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 313.0 (105) - 422.8 (102)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 4.89 (103) - 6.31 (104)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.22 (108) - 4.94 (106)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 6.66 (89) - 8.63 (114)
Turnover Differential: -1.3 (119)
2010 OUTLOOK
Tulane’s 2009 season was nearly a carbon copy of 2008. Both times Tulane split the first four games to drum up some optimism but then fell off the cliff the rest of the way, losing eight straight in ’08 and seven of eight a year ago. After last season’s 2-2 start the Green Wave lost the next four games by a combined score of 160-32. The two biggest playmakers on offense have departed, so even with a schedule that has seven games in New Orleans, an eighth straight losing season is very likely…Tulane had the most anemic offense in Conference USA, scoring just 24 touchdowns and 193 points for an average of 16.1 per game, while being shut out twice. Head coach Bob Toledo used two quarterbacks to run the offense, Joe Kemp and Ryan Griffin. Griffin entered spring camp as the incumbent starter, after throwing for 1,382 yards and nine touchdowns, with six interceptions. Two big holes will need to be filled with the losses of RB Andre Anderson( 1,036 yards, 8 TD’s) and WR Jeremy Williams (84 catches, 1,113 yards, 7 TD’s). The line should be cohesive with four starters back...Rice was the only defense in C-USA that surrendered more than the 440 points that Tulane allowed, working out to an average of 36.7 PPG. Strangely enough the Green Wave were seventh in the conference in total defense, allowing 422.8 YPG. Only four of last year’s starters have returned…Combining the holes on defense and in the kicking game, with the loss of two of the biggest producers on offense, it’s shaping up as another tough year for the Green Wave. Back-to-back games against Mississippi and Houston may help damage team morale.
STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* TULANE is on a 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) skid on the road vs. good offensive teams - averaging >=425 YPG . The Average Score was TULANE 17.6, OPPONENT 43.8
TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE
Head Coach: Todd Graham, 4th year (26-14 SU)
2009 Record: 5-7 SU, 5-6-1 ATS
Offense: Spread No-Huddle - Starters Returning: 9
Defense: 3-3-5 - Starters Returning: 5
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +1.9 (#60 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -3.7 (#80 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 34 (#73 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/5 - at E Carolina
9/11 - BOWLING GREEN
9/18 - at Oklahoma St
9/25 - C ARKANSAS
10/2 - at Memphis
10/9 - at SMU
10/16 - TULANE
10/30 - at Notre Dame
11/6 - RICE
11/13 - at Houston
11/20 - UTEP
11/26 - SOUTHERN MISS
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 5-7, 26-14 (65%)
Overall ATS: 5-6, 18-20 (47%)
at Home ATS: 3-3, 10-8 (56%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-3, 8-12 (40%)
vs Conference ATS: 2-5, 9-16 (36%)
as Favorite ATS: 2-4, 13-15 (46%)
as Underdog ATS: 2-2, 4-5 (44%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 29.75 (94)
Points Scored - Allowed: 29.3 (44) - 27.3 (74)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 410.1 (35) - 397.0 (84)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.66 (56) - 5.61 (75)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.77 (82) - 3.86 (51)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 8.00 (23) - 7.65 (94)
Turnover Differential: -0.2 (72)
2010 OUTLOOK
During his first two seasons as Tulsa’s head coach, Todd Graham led the Golden Hurricane to an impressive 21-7 record and a pair of bowl victories. The program lost some momentum last year by suffering six losses over the final seven games to finish with a 5-7 mark, its first sub-.500 record since 2004. There is some rebuilding to do on defense with the loss of six starters, but with nine offensive starters back in the fold, the expectations are for Tulsa to return to its winning ways…The offensive attack was an absolute juggernaut in 2008, leading C-USA in scoring, total offense and rushing. The offense put in a respectable effort last season, but was not nearly as potent, ranking fourth in the conference in scoring (29.3 PPG) and fifth in total offense (410.1 YPG). G.J. Kinne returns as the starter at quarterback after winning the job as a sophomore while having to fill the huge shoes of David Johnson. Running back Jahmad Williams and WR Damaris Johnson are skilled positional players that should put up big numbers. Stability on the line shouldn’t be an issue with four starters returning... The stop unit placed fifth in C-USA in scoring (27.3 PPG) and sixth in total defense (397.0 YPG). Defense, however, was an issue during the six-game losing skein that sank the season as the unit allowed an average of 36.0 PPG…The offense fell off a notch last season, but Kinne should improve his numbers, as should the attack unit as a whole. The key will be establishing a running game. Provided there isn’t another defensive collapse, Tulsa should move back over the .500 mark.
STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* TULSA is on a 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) skid as home favorites of 7.5 to 14 points . The Average Score was TULSA 31.1, OPPONENT 24.9
UTEP MINERS
Head Coach: Mike Price, 7th year (34-38 SU)
2009 Record: 4-8 SU, 5-7 ATS
Offense: One-Back - Starters Returning: 7
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 4
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -3.7 (#86 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -7.5 (#96 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 29 (#89 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 - AK-PINE BLUFF
9/10 - at Houston
9/18 - NEW MEXICO ST
9/25 - MEMPHIS
10/2 - at New Mexico
10/9 - RICE
10/16 - at UAB
10/23 - TULANE
10/30 - at Marshall
11/6 - SMU
11/13 - at Arkansas
11/20 - at Tulsa
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 4-8, 13-23 (36%)
Overall ATS: 5-7, 16-19 (46%)
at Home ATS: 3-3, 8-9 (47%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-4, 8-10 (44%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-4, 12-12 (50%)
as Favorite ATS: 2-5, 3-10 (23%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-2, 13-9 (59%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 29.42 (96)
Points Scored - Allowed: 29.8 (35) - 33.5 (104)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 426.8 (21) - 446.9 (110)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 6.23 (19) - 6.09 (101)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.52 (42) - 5.03 (107)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 7.86 (26) - 7.36 (80)
Turnover Differential: -0.3 (77)
2010 OUTLOOK
The 2009 season was one of inconsistency for UTEP as the Miners were never able to tack together two wins in a row while also falling prey to losing streaks of two and four games. UTEP had its moments of overachieving in wins over Houston and Marshall and its moments of underachieving in losses to Memphis and Rice. Head coach Mike Price has been unable to lift the Miners over the .500 mark for four straight seasons but he’s hoping some offensive standouts and a reworked defense will help turn the tide…Led by two of the biggest stars in C-USA, the Miners placed second in total offense (426.8 YPG) and were third in scoring (29.8 PPG). Returning for a fourth consecutive season as quarterback is senior Trevor Vittatoe, whose career totals include 75 touchdowns and 29 interceptions. UTEP’s other stud on offense is senior running back Donald Buckram, who had a school-record 1,594 yards rushing and 18 touchdowns. The line lost two starters but returns a strong senior core to protect Vittatoe and spring Buckram loose… The stop unit has a new look, led by a new coordinator in Andre Patterson and moving from a 3-3-5 base defense to a 4-3. Throw in the fact that seven starters, including the top two tacklers, have departed, and Patterson has plenty of work to do. The Miners were eighth in the conference in total defense (446.9 YPG) and ninth in scoring defense (33.5 PPG)… It will take a while for the defense to jell, so the arm of Vittatoe and the legs of Buckram will have to carry this team for at least the first month. If the pair can have big years, UTEP could squeeze out six wins.
STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* UTEP is on a 1-10 ATS (-10 Units) skid as road favorites of 7 points or less . The Average Score was UTEP 25.5, OPPONENT 31.5