Divisional H2H Trends
By Bruce Marshall
Throughout the years, we’ve seen enough gridiron point-spread trends and angles to realize that none of them lasts forever. But some of them can endure for several years. And many of the more pronounced trends have often been featured in the various NFL divisional rivalries that are renewed twice each season. Following are some of the more interesting of those series angles, broken down by team, that have been worth following in recent campaigns and might bear watching again in 2010. The remaining dates of this season’s matchups vs. the division foe referenced will appear in ( ). Keep the following notes handy as these matchups arise throughout the 2010 NFL campaign!
Arizona...Cards have had the best of it lately vs. Seattle (Nov. 14, Dec. 5), winning and covering last 4, and 6 of last 7 clashes. Cards have also covered 5 of last 6 against opening-week victim St. Louis (Dec. 5), with the last five in that series "under" as well. Atlanta...Falcs have had some problems lately vs. Tampa Bay (Nov. 7, Dec. 5), dropping 5 of last 6 spread decisions. That series has also gone "under" the past four meetings. Baltimore...After dropping six spread decisions in a row vs. the Browns (Sept. 26, Dec. 26), the Ravens have bounced back to win and cover all four vs. Cleveland the past two seasons. Buffalo...The Bills haven’t beaten New England (Sept. 26, Dec. 26) SU since winning the opener back in ‘03, 31-0; the Patriots have now won 13 straight vs. Buffalo, covering 10 of those battles. Carolina...The Panthers have given the Saints (October 3, November 7) fits lately, covering the last 4, and 7 of the last 9 meetings. The Panthers are also "over" 3 of their last 4 vs. Tampa Bay (Nov. 14). Chicago...No pointspread luck lately for Lovie Smith’s men against Green Bay (Sept. 27, Jan. 2), losing the last four against the number vs. the Pack. All four of those games "under" as well. The Bears have also covered just one of their last five trips to Minnesota (Nov. 14, at Minn. Dec. 20). Cincinnati...The Bengals managed wins and covers in both meetings last season vs. Pittsburgh (Nov. 8, Dec. 12), but over the past decade have covered only 7 of 21 vs. the Steelers. Cleveland...The Browns have played rival Pittsburgh (Oct. 17, Jan. 2) pretty tough lately, covering four of the last five meetings.
Dallas...Note that Cowboys won and covered three times last season vs. Philly (Dec. 12, Jan. 2) after dropping five of six previous spread decisions vs. the Birds. Denver...The Broncos have failed to cover their last four at home against Oakland (Oct. 24 at Denver, Dec. 19), a series in which the road team has covered 10 of the last 14 meetings. Denver is also "over" 6 of its last 8 vs. San Diego (Nov. 22, Jan. 2). Detroit...No success for the Lions lately vs. Green Bay (Oct. 3, Dec. 12), which has covered 7 of the last 8 meetings. Green Bay...Note "unders" in 5 of the last 6 vs. the Lions, but recent "totals" vs. Minnesota (Oct. 24, Nov. 21) have trended "over" the last 4, and 5 of the last 6. Houston...Although the Texans won SU for only the second time in 17 meetings vs. the Colts (Nov. 1) on opening day, note that the Texans are now 9-5-1 vs. the line the last 15 vs. Indy. Ten of their last 11 vs. the Colts are "over" as well. Indianapolis...Note the streaky nature of the series vs. Tennessee (Dec. 9, Jan. 2), with the Colts covering the last 3, the Titans covering the prior 5, and the Colts covering the previous 6. Indy also "under" 9-1 last 10 against Tennessee. Jacksonville...The underdog side is 9-4 vs. the number the last 13 games vs. Tennessee (Oct. 18, Dec. 5). The Jags have also covered 5 of their last 6 at Indy (Oct. 3, Dec. 19 at Indy). Kansas City...Note "overs" in 13 of last 17 vs. Denver (Nov. 14, Dec. 5).
Miami...After failing to cover 10 straight vs. the Jets (Sept. 26, Dec. 12), the Dolphins have now won and covered the last 3. Miami also had failed to cover 8 straight vs. the Bills a few years back, but has now covered 4 of its last 5 vs. Buffalo (Dec. 19) after that opening-day success. Minnesota...Note "unders" the last four, and five of the last six vs. Detroit (Sept. 26, Jan. 2). New England...Bill Belichick only 1-4 vs. line last 5, and 3-7-1 the last 11 vs. Miami (Oct. 4, Jan. 2). New Orleans...Saints "over" 4-1 last 5 vs. Atlanta (Sept. 26, Dec. 27). NY Giants...G-Men 4-1 vs. line last 5 and 8-3-2 last 13 vs. Dallas (Oct. 25, Nov. 14). Giants also 6-1-1 vs. points last 8 against Washington (Dec. 5, Jan. 2). NY Jets...Road team 8-2 vs. line last 10 vs. New England (Dec. 6). Oakland...Raiders have dropped last 7 spread decisions at Coliseum vs. Kansas City (Nov. 7 at Oakland, Jan. 2). "Unders" also 9-1 last 10 vs. Chiefs. Philadelphia...Eagles have won and covered last four vs. Giants (Nov. 21, Dec. 19).
Pittsburgh...Note "overs" in 6 of last 8 meetings vs. Baltimore (Oct. 3, Dec. 5). San Diego...Chargers have covered 7 of their last 8 at Oakland (Oct. 10 at Oakland, Dec. 5). They had also covered 11 of 12 since ‘03 vs. Raiders before LY, when Oakland covered both meetings. San Francisco...49ers have covered 9 of their last 11 vs. St. Louis (Nov. 14, Dec. 26), with 7 of the last 8 "under" against the Rams. Seattle...Seahawks "under" 6-2-1 last 9 vs. opening-week victim 49ers (Dec. 12). St. Louis...Rams have had their problems lately vs. Seattle (Oct. 3, Jan. 2), dropping the last 6 SU and against the number vs. the Seahawks. Tampa Bay...Streaky "totals" pattern lately vs. New Orleans (Oct. 17, Jan. 2), "under" 5 straight in 2003-05, then "over" 6 straight through first ‘08 meeting, and now "under" last three. Tennessee...Titans now 6-2 both vs. line and "over" last 8 vs. Houston (Nov. 28, Dec. 19). Washington...Opening Sunday night win over Dallas (Dec. 19) marked the Skins’ sixth spread win their last 8 vs. the Cowboys. Washington also 7-3-1 vs. number last 11 vs. Eagles (Oct. 3, Nov. 15).