Divisional Playoff Trends
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com
Since the inception of the 12-team NFL playoff format in 1990, the top two seeds in each conference have enjoyed the luxury of an added week of rest while hosting Wild Card winners in the Divisional Round from the previous week.
Let’s see what history tells us about this round in the playoffs.
Resting On Their Laurels
Well-rested hosts in the NFL playoffs have pretty much taken full advantage of the situation, going 73-27 SU (straight up) collectively. However, they are only 50-48-2 ATS (against the spread). What started early on as a huge point-spread edge for home teams in previous years has diminished drastically over the past eight postseasons.
Consider: from 1990 through the 2005 playoffs, these well-rested hosts compiled a hefty 51-13 SU and 37-25-2 ATS mark. Since 2006, they have crashed back to earth in a dramatic way, going a dismal 22-14 SU and 13-23 ATS.
Hence, more losses (14) have occurred over the last nine postseasons as did during the first 16. It’s mind-boggling, to say the least.
While it appears that rest has turned to rust for these top two conference seeds, the main culprit appears to be the linesmaker, who has effectively adjusted the spreads on these home teams to the point where they’ve become money-burners.
Defense, Defense, Defense
It’s important to remember that 40 of the last 49 Super Bowl winners have owned a Top 10 ranked defense. And it would have been 41 had Pete Carroll ran the damn ball. That’s not good news for the Green Bay Packers or the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Remember, it’s not always the best team that wins in the NFL playoffs. It’s the hottest... and those sporting a rock-solid defense.
Bye And Large Top Seeds Up To Speed
Under the current playoff format, which was adapted in the 1990 season, each team is seeded from 1-6 based on their regular season performance.
No. 1 seeds in the NFC are 21-4 SU (.840) and 15-10 ATS (.600) in the Divisional Playoffs.
No. 1 seeds in the AFC are 15-10 SU (.600) and 10-15 ATS (.400) in this round.
No. 1 seeds off a SU loss (read; New England Patriots) are 15-4 SU and 12-7 ATS, while these same top seeds off a SU win are 21-10 SU and 12-19 ATS.
However, before knee-jerking and backing the good-news teams on the blind, one would be well served knowing that since the 2006 playoffs all No. 1 seeds are 10-8 SU and 4-14 ATS in divisional round games – thus reinforcing the recent demise of divisional round home teams as outlined above.
And speaking of No. 1 seeds, when the Seattle Seahawks went on to capture Super Bowl XLVIII, it marked the first time since 1999 that a top seed from the NFC had carried home the hardware.
Highway Blues
With all four road teams winning for the first time in the Wild Card Round last week, this record-setting foursome enter the Divisional Round knowing just 14 of the previous 44 visiting teams have managed to win again on the road, this time versus rested opposition, and advance to the Championship Round since 1990.
However, these well-traveled troops have actually rung the cash register if they were Wild Card Round road favorites, going 8-1 ATS the following game. Despite being an injured mass, the Kansas City Chiefs, Pittsburgh Steelers and Seattle Seahawks will look to continue the trend this weekend.
Stat Of The Week
Playoff teams in the Divisional Round, playing with same season loss revenge, are 1-7 both SU and ATS when coming off a Wild Card Round victory in which they scored 34 or more points.