Divisional Round Notebook
By The Gold Sheet
Having been around for 53 seasons, we at THE GOLD SHEET are often asked about our most-memorable pro football playoff games. We're a good candidate to stroll down that memory lane, too, because we began publishing ten years before the NFL adopted a multi-round playoff format in 1967. In prior years, "playoffs" in both the NFL and old AFL consisted of the league championship games, and nothing more. Indeed, in most years prior to the late '60s, those title contests were played in late December; the modern-day playoffs don't even begin until January. We really have seen 'em all!
And there have been plenty of interesting Division Round games since the 1970 merger, including an incredible pair of battles on the same day (December 23) in 1972, one contest that longtime Bay Area football fans have long wished they could forget. In the "early" kickoff that Saturday, Pittsburgh scored a miraculous 13-7 win over Oakland in the famed Franco Harris "Immaculate Reception" game that remains discussed to this day. By us, we still think Kenny Stabler's 30-yard TD scramble that preceded Franco's TD might have been just as miraculous, and still wonder if Harris' TD should have counted, given that Terry Bradshaw's pass might have been deflected Franco's way by teammate Frenchy Fuqua (which, at the time, would have been illegal) as he was blasted by Raider DB Jack Tatum. We have also long wondered if pro football history might have changed had Oakland won that game, as the Raiders would have been hosting Don Shula's unbeaten Miami in the AFC title game the next week, and would have probably been rated no worse than pick'em by the oddsmakers had that game taken place. Who knows...maybe the '72 Dolphins never would have gotten to 17-0? Meanwhile, in the "late" game that December 23 of '72, Dallas staged a remarkable comeback at San Francisco, rallying from a 28-13 deficit with two late TD drives engineered by Roger Staubach (the latter score after an onside kick recovery) to stun the 49ers at Candlestick Park, 30-28.
But our most memorable TGS "pre-title" playoff game actually came a couple of years before the NFL officially expanded its playoffs, in what was arguably one of the most influential games in pro football history. When the NFL's Western Conference race ended in a tie in 1965 between the Packers and Colts (both 10-3-1), the teams met in a playoff game at frigid Lambeau Field to determine who would face (and host) the defending champion Browns in the following week's NFL title game. The Colts went into Lambeau forced to utilize RB Tom Matte as their emergency QB after both Johnny Unitas and backup Gary Cuozzo had gone down with injuries late in the season. Matte, with help from veteran QB Ed Brown, had engineered a 20-17 road win over the hot L.A. Rams in the final week of the regular season (a Saturday game that I actually attended!), although the Colts needed help from the 49ers, who tied the Packers the following day, to force the playoff. Matte's gritty performance, in which he completed only 5 passes, vs. Green Bay has become part of gridiron lore (Matte's wristband, complete with a built-in play selection chart, is on display at the Hall of Fame in Canton), but it is also mostly forgotten that the Packers were without their starting QB, Bart Starr, for most of that game after he was KO'd, with backup Zeke Bratkowski called upon to rally the Packers from a 10-0 deficit. Which they eventually did, along with some help from the referees, who erred on PK Don Chandler's game-tying 22-yard FG that seemed to drift wide, but was ruled good. In overtime, Chandler connected legitimately from 25 yards out to give the Pack a 13-10 win.
The drama was certainly palpable that day in Green Bay, but it was the aftermath of the game that really caused the NFL to pause and reflect. The Western Conference playoff had generated so much attention that the league decided more such games might be a good idea, and by '67 the NFL had split the two conferences into four divisions (anyone remember the Coastal, Central, Capitol, and Century Divisions...all 7 letters and beginning with the letter C?), creating a round of playoffs before the title game. Chandler's controversial field goal also prompted the league to increase the height of the goalpost uprights to 20 feet for the '66 season, with the now-familiar "slingshot" goalposts standardized in '67.
Returning to the 49ers and Raiders, however, there's also been a Bay Area-like tectonic shift in the patterns of NFL Division Round pointspread results in recent years that have been as ground-shaking (in a gridiron sense, at least) as what the San Andreas, Hayward, and other earthquake faults have long been able to cause in California. Let us digress.
For most of their history, Division Round games have been the territory of home teams and favorites (almost always one and the same), but that certainly hasn't applied the past six seasons. Road underdogs have been getting the money consistently in Division Round games since 2003, covering 16 of 24 chances. Over the past three seasons, that success has been even more pronounced, with road dogs 10-2 vs. the number. And twice since 2003, the visiting underdog teams have covered all four Division Round games. That's all been quite a change from the success home favorites used to enjoy in this round as recently as from 1998-2002, and '04, when hosts were 16-7-1 vs. the line in Division Round action.
And there are some dynamics worth mentioning that are unique to this round that have likely helped home teams achieve pointspread success in the past. Since 1990, when the playoffs expanded from 10 teams to 12, all Division Round hosts have been off a "bye" and a week of rest. And almost all of the "powerhouse" NFL teams in recent memory are from that first-round "bye" group, including 49 of the last 62 Super Bowl participants since '78 (when the first-round "bye" was introduced). But the change theme reflected in the recent success of Division Round road dogs has made some wonder if that first-round "bye" is really worth it. In each of the past four seasons, a top seed in either the NFC (the Giants, losing 23-11 at home to the Eagles a year ago, and Dallas, defeated by the visiting Giants 21-17 two years ago) or AFC (San Diego bowing to New England, 24-21, in 2006 and Indianapolis falling to Pittsburgh, 21-18, in 2005) have bitten the dust after a "bye" week. Three of the past four Super Bowl winners (2005 Pittsburgh, 2006 Indy, and the 2007 Giants) each participated from the outset in the playoffs, beginning their postseason adventures in the wildcard round. The Saints, Vikings, Colts, and Chargers (this year's first-round "bye" teams) are thus forewarned.
Following are the pointspread results in various spread categories of NFL Division Round playoff games since 1975. Our "charting" begins with the '75 season because, prior to then, playoff home teams were predetermined in a divisional rotation, as opposed to the better won-loss record. A "margin of victory" chart for the games since 1975 is included as well.
CATEGORY... RESULT
Favorites vs. line...68-64-3 (1 pick)
Favorites straight up...94-41
Favored by 0-3 points...7-13-1
Favored by 3 ½-6 ½ points...24-22-1
Favored by 7-9 ½ points...24-18
Favored by 10-13 ½ points...10-8
Favored by 14 points or more...3-3-1
Home teams straight up...96-40
Home teams vs. spread...70-63-3
Home favorites vs. spread...66-61-3
Home underdogs vs. spread...3-2
Home picks vs. spread...1-0
Over/under (since 1986)...48-44
MARGINS OF VICTORY
1-3 points...33
4-6 points...11
7-10 points...23
11-13 points...10
14 points or more...59