Had a pretty good run last year with totals with all of your help and feedback. At one point I there were 12 correct picks on a row, my personal best streak. I certainly do not expect to do that well this year but if we can get 60-70% that would be most excellent. The factors I like to use to decide my picks include stats, intuition, trends, line movement, public perception, injuries and weather (not in that order). Please feel free to agree or disagree but try to provide constructive information. I am going to try to keep this running from week 3 to week 15, the first and last two weeks of the season is too wacky. Good luck this season guys. - Dr Jake
Jacksonville @ Houston -3.5, 47
Where to begin here. Jacksonville has fallen from grace. Two seasons ago they were easy money on every Over. The offense was clicking and the defense was way over rated. Last year the offense fell flat and the public realized the poor defense which took the value out of the line. So far this season Jax has not had a TD in the first half. Jones-Drew has only one TD and 163 yards in the first two games. With Houston being last in rushing defense expect Jax to run the ball and burn up the clock especially with the conservative approach of Del Rio. After the crazy high scoring of the last game the Houston offense will come back down to earth. Jax secondary will be expecting the arial assault (having just played two of the better QBs in the league) so Houston should be able to dust off the running game and give Slaton some carries. Division rivals here drag this game into the trenches. Last three years the total was 3-3 over/under. The line has been pretty steady varying only half point from the opening line. I think this line was too high after last weeks scores. It should be down around 43. Houston has won 6-1 ATS @ home to Jax and this trend will probably continue. Weather is a non-factor. Jax 19 HOU 24
UNDER 47
Cleveland @ Baltimore -13.5, 38.5
As a personal rule I usually shy away from games with half points (I would rather lose by a point than a half point), but I predicted lots of Balt OVERS with the loss of there defensive coordinator and four of the starters on defense. The offense appears to be more of a juggernaut than last year. Good running and better passing with a scoring defense. My only worry is Cleveland holding up their end. If you analyze the line, the brains of Vegas predict a 13-26 game which seems very likely. So can Cleveland score 13? D. Anderson could.....B. Quinn would probably only score 9 but give Ed Reed a pick six to cover. Flacco is averaging over 2 TDs/game. The weather forecast is 70 degrees, 5 mph wind, cloudy with 20% chance of rain. Totals have been 4-1-1 last 3 years between these division rivals. Cle 13 Balt 33
OVER 38.5
Good luck Dr, thanks for posting.
Love starting out 0-2..... You should probably fade the next ten. I am mighty streaky.
Cin @ CLE +6, 38
Lets hope that DA can do better than Quinn. Last week the Browns burned me by only scoring 3 points (thanks to DA) when all I needed was 6 from them. With the weak defense of Cleveland and Palmer and Ocho should do well but not as well as the Cin running game. The weakness in Cin defense is the passing game, so hopefully a change of quarterback will help to push this total OVER. Injuries last game to the Cinnci defense (2 LB, 1 DT, 1 CB) should help Cleveland and the over. Beware the forecast for showers (40%) and wind 17mph. Could be sloppy. Cin 20 Cle 19. OVER 38
Det @ Chi -10, 39
I think that Cutler is starting to gel a little better with his recievers (comp % is up each game 47-71-77% and rating 43-104-126). Both defenses are banged up (Det lossed 2 D-line last game and Chi is plagued with linebacker injuries). Det may have a little fire in their tanks after their first win. Both teams should score 2 TDs before the first half, with at least one special teams touchdown. With a couple field goals this one goes over easy. Watching the line movement would confirm this as it has risen from 38 to 41 in places. The weather should not be an impact (10% chance of rain with a 12 mph cross-wind). As a quirky system I like to go over totals in the 30s when the favored team is in double digits.
Det keeps it real.... Det 20 Chi 28 OVER 39
Balt @ NE -1, 45
Even though Baltimore has been an over machine (barring last week), New England has a mad genius for a coach that can play defense even after losing key players. Like last year this game will be an epic defensive battle. As long as Brady and his receivers are not on the same page the under on NE games are money. Will this be the game he turns it around? Doubtful with Baltimore's stoic defense. Weather should be wet with a 60% chance of rain although the wind is forecasted at only 6 mph. This pick is against the line movement as it has risen from 43 to 45. The public is loving the Balt overs.Bal 20 NE 17
UNDER 45
Better last week 2-1. 2-3 season.
Cin @ Balt -9, 42
Baltimore picks are not agreeing with me. Lost both the previous weeks. Going with the OVER here. Cinci can score and has a solid comeback QB in Palmer and has a weak defense that is injured. Baltimore defense is a bend don't break style this year so far and they seem to build such a lead on offense that they don't need to be as stalwart as in the past. Weather should be nice with minimal wind. Good division rivalry keeps it close.
Cin 23 Balt 31
OVER 42
Min @ Stl +10, 40
This may be a let down spot here for Farve, but I think All Day can carry the load against the weak Rams defense. Rams find a way out of the scoring slump, getting some field position from Farve interceptions. Even if the Rams can't score more than a field goal the Vikings should be able to handle scoring 38. Dome conditions look mighty fine for the OVER 40
Ind @ Ten +3.5, 45
Fishy line here. I would think that the public love for P Manning should have this at least -7 against the winless Titans. Something smells like a Tennessee upset. In my mind the most likely way to get a Tennessee upset is to keep the battle in the trenches and keep it a field position battle. I have a hard time taking a winless team, and I don't like betting against really good QBs, but I nice UNDER on a rigged game sounds mighty fine. Trends support the UNDER (7-1 last 8) in Tennessee (3-1 last 4). Weather should not be a factor.
UNDER 45
I fixed it and got rid of that smiley for you jmaydc
here is a trend you might want to look at:
The Colts are 8-0 Over (+19.1 ppg) since 2001 when visiting a team that has passed the ball on at least 56% of their offensive plays season-to-date.
Tennessee has run 257 plays and passed on 153 of them for 59.5%.
That is an interesting stat Vegas. I like the angle. I think that Fisher usually runs a bit more against that weak Indy rush defense. This particular rivalry likes the under. Gotta weird feeling tenny and under....
I would like to add foolishly:
NE @ Den +3, 41
Mentor and pupil. In the cold snow. Windy, cold. Orton vs. Brady and the line is only 3? The line this close spells under. Denver defense seems to be the real deal. You would hope McDaniels would know Brady's tendencies. Champ Bailey is still got what it takes to shut down Moss. Cold and windy. Hard-ball. Mile-high. UNDER 41
season 5-4, last week 3-1
Damn that Balt total. Never get it right. Watch this week go Over. Bailout by ineffectiveness of the Titans.
Not a lot of stuff this week.
Cle @ Pit -14, 38
I like games with low totals and large spreads. Makes you want either over or the dog. As I have been told, never bet against the Steelers. OVER it is. The Steelers have been allowing Big Ben to chuck the ball downfield this year (2nd in passing behind Manning), and the emergence of a real running back (sorry Willie) spells lots of offense, especially at home. Last few weeks the Pit team has had the worst 4th quarter defense in the league. Will Polomalu make the difference? Or will Anderson throw a late TD to cover the OVER. I figure the Browns for at least 10 points and pit for 28.
OVER 38
season 6-4, last week 1-0
Didn't like the AM games very much. Here is the afternoon thoughts...
Chi @ Cin -1 (pk), 42
The play here is on the injuries, most of which are on the defensive side for both teams. The fact that Chicago loves to throw now they have their "franchise QB" (like a boy with a new toy) also leans toward the over. Cutler with his new contract should feel secure and sends the message to the team "this is our guy". Chicago should be able to fix the red zone mistakes (and re-tune the running game?). Carson Palmer is playing well this year and Benson is looking for some revenge. Both teams are equally matched with the stats. Weather looks insignificant 61F 7mph cloudy, and line movement leans toward the over. History says these teams play under. I like the OVER 42
Atl @ Dal -4.5, 48
Dallas with three runningbacks off a bye week, all rested should be able to runn the ball and grind out a game. I think the Dallas game plan will be shut down Ryan wich will leave them open to Turner up the gut. A gritty game, ends up in a field position battle and a clock managing game. Line movement shown the money in on the over. Big D shows up...... UNDER 48 (barely)
1-1 last week. 7-5 season.
Tough middle part of the seasons. With these high lines on favorites covering it has wacked out this weeks numbers. I know there are some weak lines, but I am having trouble discerning them.
Den @ Balt -3.5, 41.5
Every stat really tells me to take the under here but my gut says over. Baltimore plays better defense at home averaging seven points less, while Denver stats don't change while on the road and their second half defensive adjustments are the best in the league in almost every category. Denver is better statistically, but Baltimore is just gutsy, gritty, hungary and mean. Line movement is showing money landing on over as it has risen from 40.5 to 42 at some shops. If you like the under wait a bit till it hits 42.5. My gut keeps telling me it will be a 24-20 game where either team could win. Over is the bet. (Crap not another Baltimore total!)
Cle @ Chi -13, 40
This is like a repeat of the last pick: the stats say over as does history between these teams but my gut says over. With the Bears being so injured on defense and the Browns not having one it should not be hard for these two teams to score. Both like to score punt returns and kick returns, with Cribbs and Knox playing that should be good for extra 10-14 points. Look for the Bears to regain the run against one of the worst run defenses in the league. Chicago rolls 33-13. OVER 40
Mia @ NYJ -3.5, 40.5
This may be a close one, but the running styles played by both teams (170-185 ypg) makes me want to lean on the UNDER. They both manage the TOP very well (34 and 32 min respectively). Turnovers are a little high. Sanchez has been dialed back a little and Henne is still an unknown quantity. The loss of Washington is huge and can easily decrease the Jets score by 7-10. The defense is taking a personal interest in this one. I like Miami to steal one here even though the Jets are the better team in a low scoring nail-biter. Shop around and you might even get 41.
MIA UNDER 40.5
Jac @ TEN -3, 45
I love a winless team still giving points. The public perception strikes again? The one thing that Vince Young does is score points for one of the teams, either his team by using fast feet or deep bombs, or more likely the opposing team by turning over the ball deep in his own territory. Both teams turn the ball over a lot and that will spell points. When they met last month there were 4 turnovers and these teams average 4.7 per game. Tennessee's defensive secondary is horrid this year (due to injuries). Jacksonville matches up well with this team. I would hope that after a bye week Fisher will have his boys ready to play because both of these teams are the bottom of the barrel of the AFC South. One team 30s, other 20s. OVER 45
Car @ ARI -10 ,41
Like the previous pick I like the OVER due to the exorbitant amount of turnovers these team produce (3.5 + 2 = 5.5 per game). Arizona's corners are pick and strong much like their receivers, look what they did to the weak wideouts of NY. Carolina can defend the pass and Arizona can pass really well; that will be the matchup to watch. Carolina can run but Arizona shuts down the run with their excellent front line. The turnovers will make the difference and Arizona is running pretty hot right now. They might cover 41 by themselves. I think Smith might show up to this game. Hopefully with Delhome's new vote of confidence and the coaches job on the line they might pull one together. After all the Panthers have never lost in Arizona..... OVER 41
Week 9
Gone cold 1-4 last week, 8-9 season.
GB @ TB 10, 44
Under. GB should dominate this game, but historically have trouble in Tampa. Sloppy game that will go under. Tampa will be lucky to get 10 points. GB about 24. Lots of points to spare.
Mia @ NE -10.5, 47
After a bye week NE will come out early with the guns a blazing. Look for the game plan is to build a quick 2-3 score lead in the 1st quarter so Mia must abandon the run to try to catch up. After a mid game push, NE will put this one away. 20-37 (10-30 @ half)
OVER 47
Car @ NO -13.5, 52
I like Carolina to hold up defensively against this division rivalry. It will be like the NO Atlanta game last week but without the defensive scores. Low to mid 40s. 52 is to high.
SD @ NYG -4.5, 47.5
With the way the Giants secondary is playing this team seems to be playing catch up most of their games. Manning is more than capable of putting up yards and scores. And the running game could break one at any moment. Rivers is also a gifted QB. SD return game is also dangerous. Until the Giants pass rush wakes up take the Giants overs.
Over 47.5
Dal @ PHI -3, 48
Yes both teams can score but both know how each other plays. There both are capable of stout defense. The line has been over inflated based on these teams past performances against weaker teams. UNDER 48
Pit @ Den +3, 39.5
MNF is on a tear for overs as everybody knows. This game statistically has the numbers for a under. However this MNF trend is too strong (better then 70% since 06). I like the defenses to both score here as well as a few points form the offense. Pit has a tendency to give up a lot of points in the 4th quarter, while Denver's defense is stout the second half (excluding last week). I like Pit to build a solid 10-13 point lead into the 4th quarter and both teams to light it up in the 4th. Denver rallies to make it a one score game.
OVER 40
Week 10
Another dismal showing last week (2-4). Bringing the year to 10-13. Not acceptable. Time for the turn around.
NE @ Ind -1, 50
Even with 4 defensive starters out for Indy, these two high power offenses collide to only score in the mid 40s. With as much action on NE as there apparently should be with that much line movement, I have a feeling this will turn into a field position battle with both teams playing bend don't break defense. Give up the short passes not the big plays. Field goals and punts. UNDER 50
Dal @ GB +3, 48
With the Nor Easter coming down the chilly air and wind may be tough for the Cowboys to play in. The embarrassment of a game last week for Green Bays defense should rebound well in this spot. UNDER 48
Jac @ NYJ -7, 40.5
With as much rain as was dumped on the east coast this last week I expect this field to be muddy and slow. Jets defense is good. Sanchez makes a lot of mistakes, so they run and chew up the clock. I expect Jax to do the same. Clock and field position battle.
UNDER 40.5
TB @ Mia -10, 43.5
I think since Pennington went down the MIA over's have value. They have a good running game and a deep ball threat with Henne. Last week TB showed some guts and there rookie QB was putting some things together. Hopefully there will be some special team scores like last week... OVER 43.5
KC @ OAK -1, 36.5
Is anyone really going to watch this game? I had high hopes for both teams at the start of the season. Over 36.5
2-3 last week
12-16 for the year
Buf @ Jac -9, 42.5
What kind of offense can Buffalo really expect with a concussed QB and a 3rd stringer (Fitz) with a whinny WR (Owens). After firing their HC and their OC earlier this year they are down to the defensive coordinator as interim Head Coach. This should at least spicy up their defense. Jax loves to run and will do so eating up the field and the clock. Buffalo should use the ground game as well since it is there only effective weapon. Rain is expected (70-80%) with a light wind. Buf 16 Jac 20
UNDER 42.5 (shop around to get 43)
SF @ GB -6.5, 42
Another cold game at Green Bay. I know Aaron Rodgers is good, but he is getting physically hammered out there. GB O-line is a chiropractors best friend. Expect SF defense to be fired up for their coach, as he loves his aggressive hard hitting squad. Especially of ten days rest. I don't have a lot of faith in Smith yet. Davis and Gore are good and Crabtree has a lot to prove, but green bay's defense plays good at home. I don't expect Woodson to have another game like the last one, but someone else will step up.
UNDER 42
Ari @ Stl +9, 47
Division rivalry in a dome, expect the unexpected... Even though all of the Rams home games have been against great QBs (Brees, Manning, Farve, Rodgers) and have gone over the total, I see this game going under. The embolden Rams having almost upset the Saints, they D-up and give a heavy dose of Jackson. Spags busted out the bag of tricks for this one.
UNDER 47
SD @ Den +4.5, 43
Cold Denver afternoon for a rivalry game with the division title at stake. Questionable QB and a stellar defense. This one oozes UNDER 43.
Phi @ Chi +3, 45
Two banged up football teams here. Chicago's offense is anemic and the defense is tired form the bad spots the offense keeps presenting. Philly defense is aggressive. Missing Westbrook is like missing your right hand. Chicago is rested up and Philly is on a two game slide. I like a good defensive battle here. S-UNDER-NIGHT Football
Under 45
Leans:
Cle/Det UNDER
Pit/KC OVER
Ind/Balt UNDER
Atl/NYG OVER
Sea/Min UNDER
Was/Dal OVER
NO/TB UNDER
Cin/Oak OVER
NYJ/NE UNDER
Any thought out there?
three weeks ago: 4-1 On vacation last two weeks. Year: 16-17
NO @ Atl +10, 51
Plain and simple here, no offense for Atlanta. Division rival takes it easy on them. Pity game. UNDER 51 (NO 31 ATL 13)
Buf @ KC +1, 37.5
Both teams have been playing better. KC has put up at least 2 TD's last few games. Buf has injuries to defense. No weather to speak of. Last time they played both team covered the total (buf 54 kc 31). OVER 37.5
Back later with late games.