Dress Rehearsal Breakdown
By ASA
The NFL preseason can often be broken down into distinct week-to-week trends. The opening week historically is very low-scoring with the starters seeing little action. The second week produces a dramatic increase in scoring as the starters get more reps. The third week is typically the biggest week for the first-stringers as they receive their most playing time of the preseason. The final week sees starters’ playing time reduced considerably as the third- and fourth-stringers battle for the final roster spots.
The first two weekends have held true to these trends. The average total of Week 1 games was just 34.3 points per game, and increased to 36 points per game in Week 2. Oddly enough, the scores traditionally haven’t continued to increase in Week 3 despite more playing time for the starting offenses. The average third-week totals have actually gradually gone down as of late decreasing from 39.4 points per game in 2003, to 33.1 points in 2006, and back up slightly to 34 points in 2008.
This tradition should continue this year as starters around the league see their most playing time of the preseason in game three, with a few exceptions.
Carson Palmer again missed practice on Sunday, still recovering from a high ankle sprain that he suffered in a 17-7 loss to the Saints in week one of the pre-season. It is looking more and more likely that he will miss Thursday’s game against St. Louis.
The Eagles have a whole flock of injuries that they are dealing with. Trent Cole, Stacy and Shawn Andrews, Brian Westbrook, Sheldon Brown, Omar Gaither and Jason Peters are all battling injuries and could miss Thursday nights match-up with the Jaguars. Michael Vick will overshadow any injury news surrounding the Eagles as he will be making his first appearance of the season.
The Green Bay Packers have been one of the most impressive teams this pre-season, and Head Coach Mike McCarthy has the history of going against the norm and not playing his starters the usual three quarters. Expect the Pack’s first stringers less time than most teams against the Cardinals this weekend.
Brett Favre had a rather uneventful debut for the Vikings. He was 1-4 for four yards in very limited action. He will likely get more playing time for Minnesota on Monday. Tavaris Jackson played very well in relief of Favre, throwing for 202 yards on 12/15 pass attempts and two touchdowns.
Ben Roethlisberger didn’t play against the Redskins and remains questionable for the upcoming game against the Bills. Charlie Batch started against the Redskins and Dennis Dixon and Mike Reilly also played. All three combined to throw for just 148 yards on 15/35 pass attempts.
The Panthers defense took another hit last weekend as starting MLB Jon Beason went down with a knee injury. Carolina was already without regular starters Thomas Davis and Ma’ake Kemoeatu.
Other news and notes
Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn aren’t making life for Eric Mangini any easier these days. Mangini still hasn’t named a starting QB and says he’s “not any closer to a decision.” Anderson is 8 of 15 for 130 and two interceptions this pre-season and Quinn is 10/16 for 97 yards and 1 interception. Both have yet to throw for a touchdown. On a positive offensive note, the Browns actually scored a TD last weekend! It was their FIRST offensive TD in seven games dating back to last year’s regular season.
The Detroit Lions still haven’t named their starting QB, but Matthew Stafford did little to impress in his last outing. He completed just 5 of 13 passes for 34 yards and an interception. It doesn’t help Stafford’s cause that receivers Calvin Johnson, Dennis Northcutt, Bryant Johnson, and TE Brandon Pettigrew are all out with injuries.
Keep an eye on the Sunday night, nationally televised game between Chicago and Denver. Jay Cutler looks to get the most playing time of his pre-season and he will come in with a chip on his shoulder. He is obviously very upset by the way he was treated by the new regime in Denver. He will be out to prove a point which can be a positive or a negative. Trying too hard to prove someone wrong can sometimes backfire. It will be interesting to see how that game plays out.
NFL DRESS REHEARSAL WEEK
By:Marc Lawrence
Entering the halftime portion of the 2009 NFL Pre-Season, it’s critically important to be aware of coach’s tendencies and quarterback rotations. Without knowledge of either you are simply a pigeon waiting to shot down.
NFL Coaching Tendencies
As alluded to in previous NFL articles (see my NFL Pre-Season Primer article), coaches approach the pre-season differently.
Some choose to evaluate talent while others play to win, hoping to plant a seed during exhibition play prior to the regular season. Most, however, approach Week Three of the pre-season as ‘dress-rehearsal week’. For those that do, it means starters find more playing time.
Here is a list of current NFL coaches that ‘play to win’ during ‘dress-rehearsal week’ of the pre-season with a minimum of three years of results. (Note: ‘dress-rehearsal’ week becomes Week Four for teams playing five pre-season games). Pay close attention:
BUFFALO – Jauron: 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS
CAROLINA – Fox: 5-2 SU and 3-3-1 ATS
CHICAGO – Smith: 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS, the dog is 5-0 ATS in Smith’s ‘dress-rehearsal’ games.
CINCINNATI – Lewis: 1-5 SU and ATS
DALLAS – Phillips: 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS
GREEN BAY – McCarthy: 1-2 SU and ATS, 0-2 ATS off a win
HOUSTON – Kubiak: 1-2 SU and 3-0 ATS
JACKSONVILLE – Del Rio: 4-2 SU and ATS, 3-0 ATS away
MINNESOTA – Childress: 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS, 2-0 ATS home
NEW ENGLAND – Belichick: 8-6 SU and 8-5-1 ATS
NEW ORLEANS – Payton: 2-1 SU and ATS, 2-0 SU and ATS away
NY GIANTS – Coughlin: 8-5 SU and 8-4-1 ATS
PHILADELPHIA – Reid: 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS
SAN DIEGO – Turner: 6-5 SU and 3-8 ATS, 0-5 ATS off a loss, 0-4 ATS home
SEATTLE – Mora Jr: 3-0 SU and ATS
TENNESSEE – Fisher: 4-10 SU and 7-7 ATS, 6-2 ATS away.
NFLX WEEK 3 VS NFL WEEK 1 WHAT DOES IT MEAN?
By: Mr. East
It is often called the most important game, and the only important game of the entire NFLX. Some coaches may agree, or disagree, but the NFLX week 3 is a dress rehearsal for week 1, as the starters get a lot of minutes, and teams find out where they stand on both sides of the ball. I decided to take a look at 2 things, as it relates to what significance week 3 in the NFLX has on game one of the opening season, and also take a look at NFLX totals that are 40 or higher. First, let's start with week 3 of the NFLX, and if it is a predictor of what will happen in week 1 of the regular season. This is not a lot of data, but what it does show, is their is a negative correlation to winning ATS in week 3 of the NFLX, vs winning in week 1 ATS. Last year, in NFL week 1, there were 5 matchups, of teams that won ATS in week 3 of the NFLX, playing against teams that lost in week 3 of the NFLX ATS. The results show that the losers of week 3 of the NFLX ATS, that played against winners, won the ATS battle in week one by a 3-2 score or 60%. Going back to the 2007 season, losers prevailed once again in week 1, where they went 2-1 ATS, and similar results in 2006, as the losres prevailed 3-1 ATS. That shows 3 straight years, albeit very few games, where the losers came out in the money, with an overall win rate of 67% (8-4). This may be meaningless based on how few games, but something to watch going forward, and if nothing else, it says beware of putting a few sheckles on the week 3 NFLX ATS winner vs a loser in game 1. Looking at NFLX totals, it is not very often you see them set at 40 or higher, as scoring is usually minimized. So is there value on any given game when the oddsmakers reach up and touch the 40 marker in NFLX games? There is apparently something to look at here. Games with a posted total of 40 or higher since 1996 in NFLX games have gone 58-45 to the UNDER which is 56.3%. Looking at strictly week 3 games, when the oddsmakers treat these games more like a regular season game, which they are not, that under percentage jumps to 58.5%. Looks like something to put in your arsenal and at the very least, if you don't like the under in the totals set at 40+, it may be a good idea to stay away from the over!