Early AFC Preview
By: Nelly's Sportsline
While it is a bit too early to make firm predictions for the NFL season it is time to start thinking about football. Here is an early glance at each AFC division and our rough projections at this point in the summer.
While it is a bit too early to make firm predictions for the NFL season it is time to start thinking about football. Here is an early glance at each AFC division and our rough projections at this point in the summer.
AFC EAST
The Jets made the most noise in the off-season but this division should still start with the New England Patriots. While there has been typical player turnover, the Patriots still have an explosive offensive team that was third in total yardage last season and fourth in point differential among all NFL teams. This season the toughest games will be at home for New England, where they were 8-0 until the playoffs. After going 10-6 last season with five of the six losses coming by seven points or less, another winning season should be in order for the Patriots. The New York Jets still have some work to do to establish itself as an elite contender. Rex Ryan was universally praised after his first season as coach, but he took a 9-7 team in 2008 and went just 9-7 last season. The Jets made a great playoff run but they caught some breaks down the stretch just to get into the playoffs. Statistically the Jets were the top defensive team as well as the top rushing team in the entire NFL and that formula should prove successful again, although second year QB Mark Sanchez is likely going to be inconsistent. The Jets will open with a brutal first six weeks of the schedule which could set the tone for the year. The Miami Dolphins will be a team that could make a move in 2010 after going 7-9 while struggling with turnovers last season. The schedule in 2010 is very tough in the first half so this is a team that will need the resolve to handle some early losses and position for a late season run. Mike Nolan has joined the staff to lead the defense and if he can produce the type of results he delivered in Denver last season Miami can be a playoff contender. After winning just six games last season and going through another coaching change the Buffalo Bills figure to be among the worst teams in the league this season. The Bills were nearly the least productive offensive team in the league in 2009 and also greatly struggled against the run on defense. The Bills add to the challenge by surrendering a home game to play in Toronto. The best opportunities for the Bills do come at home but matching the 2009 6-10 record would be a great accomplishment.
AFC NORTH
In a very competitive wild card race last season the Baltimore Ravens were able to make the playoffs as three teams in this division had winning records. The Ravens have won playoff games each of the last two years while still living up to their reputation as one of the top defensive teams, finishing 2009 as the top rush defense in the NFL and the third best in terms of yards allowed overall. Baltimore was also an above average offensive team last year and the schedule should allow the Ravens to finish the year strong. There were many negative headlines for the Pittsburgh Steelers in the off-season and Pittsburgh will open the season without QB Ben Roethlisberger. A key home division game with Baltimore is included in those first four weeks and that could be the difference in deciding this division. The Steelers were surprisingly a below average rushing team last season and the defense struggled against the pass. Look for Pittsburgh to get back to the basics this season but getting back into the playoffs will be a challenge. Statistically in 2009 the Cleveland Browns were likely a worse team than the 5-11 record indicated but Cleveland showed a lot of promise late in the year, winning the final four games of the season. The Browns will gamble with Jake Delhomme at QB and while he endured a disastrous 2009 season he has been an effective NFL QB for much of his career. There is potential on this defense, finishing with 40 sacks last year, and the biggest question marks will lie with the young secondary. While the schedule is by no means easy, the Browns could show a modest improvement in record. After narrowly squeaking out the division title last season, the Cincinnati Bengals could pay the price with a far tougher schedule than its division counterparts in 2010. Defensively the Bengals had some of the best numbers in the NFL last season but this team also won many close games and only out-scored foes by 14 points on the season despite finishing 10-6. With a very tough slate of road games, the Bengals are a candidate to take a big fall in the standings despite a talented roster.
AFC SOUTH
After flirting with perfection on a 14-0 start the Indianapolis Colts failed to achieve the ultimate goal with a Super Bowl loss. While the Colts remain one of the elite passing teams on offense, it was the attacking pass defense under Larry Coyer that put Indianapolis on top of the AFC. Indianapolis has made the playoffs eight straight seasons but this team will look a bit different this season and more of a rushing balance could occur. The Colts will face a difficult schedule in terms of travel but it would be difficult to envision this team not repeating as South champions. The dominance of the Colts last season made it tough for another team in this division to make the playoffs and it should be another competitive battle this season. The Tennessee Titans struggled out of the gate last season with a 0-6 start but this was a dangerous team for the balance of the schedule. This should be Vince Young's opportunity to establish as the clear starter and with record setting RB Chris Johnson the Titans will create difficult match-ups. Tennessee had terrible numbers against the pass last season but a few blowout losses skewed those figures and snagging a third place schedule should provide some advantage. It will be a make or break season for Jacksonville Jaguars and Jack Del Rio. The Jaguars will get a favorable schedule but like last season there appears to be weaknesses in the trenches for this team with limited depth and overall talent on both lines. Jacksonville was in playoff position most of the season in 2009 but lost the final four games of the season. A strong start may be critical to get some positive momentum going but the Jaguars do have a clear advantage over the rest of the division with this schedule. After narrowly missing the playoffs on a tiebreaker last season, the Houston Texans will likely be a trendy pick to get there this season. Unfortunately finishing second in this division in 2009 will create a brutal 2010 schedule as the only team in this division to play the Ravens and the Jets. Houston put up huge passing numbers last season but the defense has been below average and the running game was a huge disappointment. Houston may be the second best team in this division but the standings might not reflect that.
AFC WEST
The playoff failures will continue to haunt the San Diego Chargers but playing in this division should set-up another opportunity to enter the playoffs as one of the top seeds. The running game was the biggest weakness for the Chargers last season and moving on without legend LaDainian Tomlinson, while difficult, was the right move for the direction of the franchise. The Chargers have outstanding size in the receiving corps and Philip Rivers has established as one of the best deep passers in the league. The schedule sets up beautifully for the Chargers with no east coast trips and a remarkably light finish to the season. After winning just four games last season to finish in last place, the Kansas City Chiefs are a team likely to make a big move this year. The Chiefs lost many close games last year and there should be far more stability on the offense with QB Matt Cassel in his second season with team and Jamaal Charles leading as the clear starter at RB. With a pair of coordinators that have been Super Bowl champions added to the staff the Chiefs have the pieces to be very competitive. The schedule also jumps out as one of the more favorable paths in the entire NFL. After a surprising 6-0 start in 2009 a historic collapse led the Denver Broncos to finish 8-8. The defense that played so well early in the year struggled late in the season and there are many changes for 2010 starting with new defensive coordinator Don Martindale. The offense will also be without its best player from last year with Brandon Marshall moving to Miami. The QB situation is a bit blurry although Kyle Orton has proven to be a capable starter, as Brady Quinn and Tim Tebow will also be on the roster. 8-8 still meant second place for Denver last season and the scheduling draw is very challenging. The Oakland Raiders only won five games last season but four of those wins came against teams that finished at least .500. Jason Campbell will likely take over at QB though there are others in the mix. Statistically the Raiders were actually worse than their record indicated although better results will occur if the turnover margin bounces after finishing -13 in 2009. There is talent on this team but dysfunction is the norm and it will be tough to make a big move.