Early Bowl Projections
By Bruce Marshall
With mid-October just around the corner, it means that bowl talk can’t be far behind. So, we thought we’d beat most to the punch by offering the first bowl projections of the fall. As always, we reserve the right to make alterations to the list on a weekly basis through November. Here we go...
New Mexico (Dec. 18 at Albuquerque)... Idaho vs. UCLA. With the Mountain West having five guaranteed bowl slots this season, the loop might have a hard time filling them, especially with TCU (or perhaps Utah) gunning for a BCS at-large, and normal bowl regular BYU likely to be sitting out this December. So, we’re projecting two slots the MWC can’t fill, and one of them could go to UCLA for this battle in Albuquerque, with a spot in Shreveport’s Independence Bowl also likely opening up. Meanwhile, Idaho and Fresno State figure to be the last two in the bowl frame from the WAC. Although the Bulldogs might not be crazy about a third straight trip to Albuquerque, and the league could send them to Boise’s Humanitarian instead, likely landing the Vandals (in what would be back-to-back bowls for the first time ever) in Albuquerque.
Humanitarian (Dec. 18 at Boise)... Fresno State vs. Toledo. Remember when this bowl used to showcase hometown Boise State, before the Broncos got too big for it? Now, the Humanitarian has moved up on the calendar from its recent late December and even early January slots to the first day of bowl action in mid-December. We’re projecting the WAC to send Fresno State to make its third trip to this event in six years. The MAC could send Toledo for a rematch of one of the thrilling games of the 2008 regular season when Fresno topped the Rockets 55-54 at the Glass Bowl. Remember, this MAC-WAC matchup was also a heartstopper last December, when Idaho outscored Bowling Green 43-42 in the wildest finish of the last bowl season.
New Orleans (Dec. 18 at New Orleans)... Troy vs. Tulsa. Since Troy appears to be a heavy favorite to win the Sun Belt crown after this week’s trouncing of Middle Tennessee, we slot the Trojans back into the Superdome, which they have frequented often in recent postseasons. At the moment, Troy is also the only Belt team we are safely projecting to be bowl-eligible as well. A colorful matchup vs. high-octane C-USA rep Tulsa could produce the most fireworks of any game on the bowl slate.
St. Petersburg (Dec. 21 at St. Petersburg)... UCF vs. Pitt. This would be a return trip to the Trop for UCF, which didn’t find its regional edge of much use last December when losing this game to Rutgers. Pitt, which thus far hasn’t looked much like the BCS team it was expecting to be, figures to land somewhere in Big East’s pecking order of minor bowls.
Las Vegas (Dec. 22 at Las Vegas)... Utah vs. Cal. Does anyone realize how cold it gets at night in Las Vegas in late December? Find highlights of last year’s BYU-Oregon State game if you don’t believe us. Speaking of BYU, this would be the first time since 2004 that the Cougars would have missed this date at Sam Boyd Stadium, but at 1-4, it doesn’t look as if Bronco Mendenhall’s bunch will be eligible for any bowl this season. Utah would make a nice replacement at Sam Boyd Stadium, although the Utes are hopeful they can do much better than this slot (say, another BCS at-large). We think the MWC, which is supposed to send its champion to Las Vegas unless the reg.-season winner gets a BCS bid (as we expect TCU to earn once again), should find a better foe than a distant Pac-10 also ran such as Cal, which would nonetheless welcome this rematch and seek to atone last December’s 37-27 defeat at the Poinsettia Bowl.
Poinsettia (Dec. 23 at San Diego)... San Diego State vs. Navy. This would be an appealing matchup at Qualcomm Stadium between the hometown Aztecs and Navy, which has been a very good draw in past visits to San Diego, thanks to a west coast base stationed at nearby Coronado, and nearby Camp Pendleton, where several Annapolis grads are on the premises. Not to mention several Navy retirees in the area who love to cheer the Midshipmen whenever they can. Navy is slotted into this bowl as long as it becomes bowl-eligible, which we expect it to be for the eighth straight season. As for the Aztecs, this would mark quite an accomplishment for second-year HC Brady Hoke, and the first SDSU bowl bid since Ted Tollner’s 1998 team played in the Las Vegas Bowl.
Hawaii (Dec. 24 at Honolulu)... Hawaii vs. UTEP. This bowl always comes with a WAC caveat in that the hometown UH Warriors automatically qualify if they are bowl-eligible. And this year, we don’t have to worry about UH cracking the BCS as it did three years ago, either. The Warriors figure to be bowling again in December, so we safely slot them into Aloha Stadium on Christmas Eve. Mike Price’s UTEP are well on their way to securing bowl eligibility after a 4-year postseason absence. Interestingly, this would be a battle of former WAC rivals who were both left behind when the "defiant eight" bolted from the league to form the Mountain West in 1999.
Little Caesars (Dec. 26 at Detroit)... Temple vs. Indiana. This would actually be a pretty colorful matchup, with plenty of shades of red (cherry and crimson, to be exact). The Hoosiers should be able to find three more wins at the bottom of the Big Ten table to get them bowl eligible and probably send them to Detroit to perhaps face the exciting Owls, who would be going "bowling" in back-to-back years for the first time in their history. No wonder they’re calling him Al "Touch of" Golden in Philadelphia. (Although we also think he looks a bit like Rod Blagojevich). By the way, do you think Penn State might be weighing up alumnus Golden as a possible successor to Joe Paterno?
Independence (Dec. 27 at Shreveport)... Iowa State vs. Boston College. Here is the other of two spots (the first being the New Mexico Bowl) we project the Mountain West being unable to fill. And with the chance there might be more bowl-eligible teams than available postseason slots for the Big XII, Shreveport could become a nice landing spot for an entry such as Iowa State, which otherwise might be on the outside looking in. New Orleans is also probably going to get the last bowl-eligible ACC team; at the moment, we project that to be BC, although Maryland and Wake Forest could be involved as well.
Champs Sports (Dec. 28 at Orlando)... Clemson vs. USF. Let’s just hope we don’t get a wet track at the Citrus Bowl as we did for this one a year ago between Wisconsin and Miami, which chewed up the turf pretty well and helped make the Capital One Bowl a quagmire (with help from more rain) a few days later between LSU and Penn State. USF would add a nice regional touch to this battle, although both the Bulls and Clemson would be hoping for slightly more prestigious postseason assignments. As long as it doesn’t rain, however, Orlando is a pretty nice place to be in late December.
Insight (Dec. 28 at Tempe)... Penn State vs. Texas Tech. To this point in the season, neither of these two entries looks capable of doing much better in the postseason queue than this battle at Sun Devil Stadium. Might it end up as Joe Paterno’s final game?
Eagle Bank (Dec. 29 at Washington, D.C.)... North Carolina vs. Houston. After all of the trials and tribulations of the first month of the season, Butch Davis would probably be happy to settle for any sort of a bowl assignment with his North Carolina team. Houston’s far-fetched hopes of becoming an unlikely BCS Buster have already crashed with the September 18 loss at UCLA and season-ending knee injury to Heisman candidate QB Case Keenum.
Texas (Dec. 29 at Houston)... Baylor vs. Northwestern. It would be kind of neat to see these two schools, which have so often been at the bottom of the college football totem pole over the past 50 years, squaring off against one another in a bowl game. Although that is becoming somewhat routine these days for Northwestern. As for Baylor, Art Briles could have the Bears "bowling" for the first time since 1994, when the Bears lost 10-3 to Washington State in a painfully-dull Alamo Bowl.
Alamo (Dec. 29 at San Antonio)... Kansas State vs. Oregon State. The Alamo Bowl welcomes back the Pac-10, which was involved in the first few years of this bowl game back in the early and mid ‘90s. Oregon State has participated in a variety of second-tier bowls in recent seasons and a trip to San Antonio would fit that pattern. Bill Snyder’s Kansas State figures to be back in the postseason somewhere after being denied a year ago due to two of its six wins coming against FCS-level competition (Snyder’s normal scheduling pattern finally bit him in the rear! ).
Armed Forces (Dec. 30 at Dallas)... SMU vs. Air Force. This game temporarily moves across the Metroplex from Fort Worth to SMU’s Gerald J. Ford (not to be confused with President Gerald R. Ford) Stadium, due to renovation work at TCU’s Amon Carter Stadium, the normal home of this bowl game. Which would give SMU home-field edge if the Mustangs earn the bid to the hometown bowl. Meanwhile, Air Force could earn its fourth straight trip to this aptly-named event. Does anyone else remember how once upon a time these two opened the 1969 season at the Cotton Bowl in the ABC-TV national game to kick off that season, and won by the Falcons, who almost blew a 23-0 lead before hanging on for dear life to defeat QB Chuck Hixson’s SMU, 26-22?
Yankee Pinstripe (Dec. 30 at New York City)... Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M. The first bowl game to be played in New York City since the 1962 Gotham Bowl at the Polo Grounds! With Notre Dame eligible for one of the postseason slots allotted to the Big East, the Irish could prove irresistible to game organizers at the new Yankee Stadium, where Notre Dame will have already played once earlier this season, against Army. Any number of Big XII bowl eligibles could provide the opposition; Texas A&M has enough cachet to make for an inaugural bowl battle with a couple of historic links.
Music City (Dec. 30 at Nashville)... Kentucky vs. Georgia Tech. The Wildcats have spent part of the holidays in Nashville three of the last four years and could do so again as one of the likely lower-seeded SEC Bowl entries (we’re projecting the Wildcats to just squeeze in at 6-6). Meanwhile, Georgia Tech appears to be missing much of the pizzazz it displayed the past couple of years for HC Paul Johnson and appears likely due for a bowl downgrade after last year’s BCS appearance at the Orange Bowl.
Holiday (Dec. 30 at San Diego)... Stanford vs. Texas. The Cardinal are still hoping for better than this (such as the Rose), but have already stubbed their toe against Oregon, and another loss in the Pac-10 probably knocks them out of the BCS at-large equation. We’re guessing that Mack Brown would probably settle right now for this Holiday bid as Longhorns stare a third straight defeat in the face on October 16 at Nebraska.
Meineke Car Care (Dec. 31 at Charlotte)... NC State vs. UConn. The Wolfpack was dreaming about the BCS until last week’s loss vs. Virginia Tech, but Tom O’Brien figures to have NCS back at some postseason venue after a one-year absence. The Pack would make a nice regional fit in Charlotte, while UConn would be looking at its second appearance in this bowl after losing to Wake Forest on this field three years ago.
Sun (Dec. 31 at El Paso)... Virginia Tech vs. Arizona. Of course the Wildcats are still dreaming about the BCS and hoping for their first-ever Rose Bowl berth, but history has not been kind to the Wildcats and their Pasadena dreams. UA has at least been to El Paso before, way back in 1968 when it lost to Auburn, and again in 1992, when it lost to Baylor in Grant Teaff’s last game as Bears coach. This year also marks the debut of the ACC as the opponent of the Pac-10 in this game. Like UA, VPI is still thinking it can do better than this in the postseason, and maybe it can, but for now we think the Sun is a more-likely landing spot for the Hokies.
Liberty (Dec. 31 at Memphis)... Southern Miss vs. Mississippi State. As mentioned earlier, we liked this game a lot more when it pitted conference champions from C-USA and the Mountain West. But for gate purposes, taking a nearby SEC also-ran from the region makes a bit more sense. And wouldn’t this be an interesting all-Mississippi matchup, as these teams revive a heated rivalry that became dormant after 1990. The upstarts from Hattiesburg had done quite well, winning 10 of the last 14 meetings vs. the instate SEC rep, when the series stopped twenty years ago. By the way, MSU play-by-play man Jack Cristil was in his 37th year broadcasting the Bulldogs when they last played USM; he’s still in the booth today, in his 57th year behind the microphone.
Chick fil-A (Dec. 31 at Atlanta)... Florida State vs. Ole Miss. We remember when this game made its debut way back in December of 1968 at Georgia Tech’s Grant Field, when it was called the Peach Bowl. Over 35,000 fans turned out in the rain 42 years ago to watch LSU defeat Florida State in a 31-27 thriller. Those Seminoles featured QB Bill Cappleman and WR Ron Sellers. And it would be appropriate for FSU to return to Atlanta for the 43rd renewal of this event, as it would be appropriate for Ole Miss, which played in the first Peach Bowl away from Georgia Tech and at old Fulton-County Stadium in 1971, when QB Norris Weese led a 41-18 romp past hometown Georgia Tech. The Rebels seem to have stabilized after a shaky first few weeks and should be "bowling" again for HC Houston Nutt.
Dallas Classic (Jan. 1 at Dallas)... Wisconsin vs. Missouri. With the traditional Cotton Bowl game having moved to Jerry Jones’ Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, the old Cotton Bowl venue (which has been spruced up) welcomes a new game to Fair Park pitting Big Ten and Big XII foes. Wisconsin and Mizzou expect to fall somewhat short of their respective BCS goals and could well land in this new addition to the New Year’s day bowl TV lineup.
Outback (Jan. 1 at Tampa)... Michigan State vs. Arkansas. One of three Big Ten-SEC showdowns on New Year’s, both the Spartans and Razorbacks have shown enough early foot to expect each to land somewhere in Florida on New Year’s Day. This would also be the first meeting between these schools with long and proud traditions from different regions.
Capital One (Jan. 1 at Orlando)... Michigan vs. Auburn. Unlike last year, let’s hope for no rain and that the Champs Sports Bowl three nights prior doesn’t chew up the turf too much, as it did a year ago before LSU and Penn State slogged through a New Year’s downpour. Might Michigan’s QB Denard Robinson be walking on to the Citrus Bowl turf as this year’s Heisman winner?
Gator (Jan. 1 at Jacksonville)... Iowa vs. South Carolina. No longer an ACC-Big East battle, this one is now the latest addition to what now is a Big Ten-SEC trifecta on New Year’s Day. If the Hawkeyes and Gamecocks get together, they’ll be renewing hostilities from the Outback Bowl two years ago in which Iowa romped, 31-10.
Rose (Jan. 1 at Pasadena)... Oregon vs. Ohio State. This would be a rematch from last year’s Pasadena battle won by the Buckeyes, 26-17. By projecting this matchup, we’re assuming each of these teams probably tastes defeat somewhere along the way in the regular season, keeping them out of the BCS title game. Stay tuned.
Fiesta (Jan. 1 at Glendale)... Boise State vs. Oklahoma. The Broncos will make it to Glendale, but not quite where they want to be. So get ready for the controversy, because we’re projecting Boise to be undefeated and once again passed over for the BCS title game, qualifying once more as a BCS at-large for what this year is the preliminary at U of P Stadium. Maybe this will be the final straw and be cause to implement some sort of playoff, even the "plus one" scenario that has been discussed in recent years. Whatever, we aren’t going to hold our breath, because it wouldn’t happen for several years anyway. We will have to settle for a rematch of the unbelievable Fiesta Bowl four years ago that featured Boise and Oklahoma, and that wild 43-42 Broncos OT win.
Orange (Jan. 3 at Miami)... Miami vs. West Virginia. Here is another example of how the BCS has destroyed a once-proud bowl game. The non-title BCS bowls are now relatively meaningless affairs, which bowls the stature of the Sugar and Orange should not have to endure. Although this would be an intriguing matchup of old Big East foes Miami and West Virginia, it will lack much panache because it is not going to mean anything in the polls.
Sugar (Jan. 4 at New Orleans)...TCU vs. Florida. We’re projecting the Horned Frogs to remain unbeaten, just like Boise, but once again get pipped out of the BCS title game. At least this year we don’t project the BCS pitting Boise State and TCU against one another in what would be a third straight bowl matchup (the teams faced in the 2008 Poinsettia before meeting in last year’s Fiesta Bowl). We still think Flroida wins the SEC East, but didn’t see enough from the Gators last week at Tuscaloosa to suggest they could reverse the 31-6 loss to Alabama in a likely rematch at the SEC title game.
GMAC (Jan. 6 at Mobile)... Middle Tennessee vs. Northern Illinois. We admit this is a bit tricky at the moment, projecting a second Sun Belt team, outside of Troy, as bowl eligible. Despite its disappointing 2-3 mark, we still believe MTSU will rally to at least 7 wins and qualify it for this spot. We also don’t think any other Sun Belt entry will be bowl-eligible. As for NIU, it has been a MAC bowl regular in recent years and could easily slip into this spot in Mobile.
Cotton (Jan. 7 at Dallas)... Oklahoma State vs. LSU. We’ll try not to confuse things about the postseason calendar in Dallas, where the Cotton Bowl now hosts the Dallas Football Classic on New Year’s Day, and the Cotton Bowl game in now played almost a week later at Jerry Jones Stadium in Arlington. But OSU would know the way to the new Cowboys Stadium after participating in this game (and losing it) a year ago vs. Ole Miss. As for LSU, we’re not sure what to think, as we wonder if the Tigers can continue to win and look so bad in the process. As Al Davis used to say, "Just win, baby!"
Birmingham (Jan. 8 at Birmingham)... Cincinnati vs. Tennessee. At the moment, we can’t guarantee these two even project into the postseason, although we suspect they could both be 6-6 and qualify for this game at well-worn Legion Field, and the bowl looking for a sponsor after Papa John’s Pizza pulled out. By projecting Tennessee into this spot, it means we don’t expect Georgia to go bowling, which in a related development means that HC Mark Richt could find himself in a heap of trouble in Athens.
Kraft (Jan. 9 at San Francisco)... Nevada vs. Washington. The old Emerald Bowl has a new sponsor, but we can think of a lot of other places we would rather be on January 9 than China Basin on the shores of cold and windy San Francisco Bay. Of course, Nevada is dreaming about a longshot BCS bid that might actually be hanging in the balance November 26 vs. Boise State if the Pack can stay unbeaten until that showdown. More likely, however, Nevada lands in San Francisco. As for Washington, it would be happy for any sort of bowl bid after missing the postseason since 2002. These teams have met in recent memory, with the Wolf Pack (then coached by Chris Tormey) scoring a 28-17 upset at Seattle, a result that in retrospect began a downward spiral of Husky football for the remainder of the decade.
BCS title game (January 10 at Glendale)... Alabama vs. Nebraska. We don’t have to do much defending of our selection of the Crimson Tide as one of our projections for the title game. Nebraska might demand a bit more explanation. Simply, we think the Cornhuskers have the best chance of the other "Big Six" conference champs to remain unbeaten. And we suspect the mother of all debates to ensue if the Cornhuskers are picked ahead of Boise State or TCU to play in the title game. But until we see otherwise, we’re going to assume any unbeaten team from a Big Six league would get the nod for the title game over any unbeaten from a non-Big Six league. We’d love to see Boise State or TCU (or Utah, or heck, even Nevada) in the title game, but we doubt the system allows it to happen with another unbeaten from one of the BCS leagues.