Early NCAAF Top 25
By The Gold Sheet
1-BOISE STATE...We'll know by the end of the opening week if we've stuck our necks out too far on this one. But if Boise can survive a tricky test vs. Virginia Tech at FedEx Field on Labor Day night, there's no reason the Broncos can't be on their way to their fifth unbeaten regular season since 2004. After all, 21 of 22 starters are back from last year's unblemished team that dominated Pac-10 champ Oregon and beat TCU in the Fiesta Bowl. And on a short list of serious Heisman contenders, jr. QB Kellen Moore deserves mention after his spectacular 39-TDP, 3-pick performance a year ago. Staying ahead of any "Big Six" unbeatens through the duration of the regular season is doubtful, but if there aren't at least two of those unblemished sorts this season, the Boise brand probably now has enough poll cachet to stay ahead of any 1-loss entries in the title game queue.
2-ALABAMA...It's not easy to win back-to-back BCS crowns (ask Florida), but the Tide will give it a shot. After all, they only return a Heisman-winning RB (Mark Ingram), a back some think is better than Ingram (Trent Richardson), and a title-winning QB (Greg McElroy). Sure, Nick Saban loses nine starters from last year's defense, but they're in pass-the-baton mode in Tuscaloosa these days, and rest assured there will be no shortage of playmakers on the stop unit (DT Marcell Dareus and LB Dont'a Hightower likely to be mentioned a lot by Mel Kiper Jr. if they come out early for next April's NFL Draft). Although if Sandra Bullock couldn't get Saban to crack a smile in The Blind Side, we're not sure he ever will.
3-OHIO STATE...Okay, now the Buckeyes have that recent BCS monkey off of their backs after the Rose Bowl win over Oregon. To take the next step and go the whole way will require QB Terrelle Pryor to smooth out some of the remaining rough patches in his game and minimize the chance of the Buckeyes getting ambushed when they least expect it (such as last year at Purdue). The schedule is no picnic, with the Miami Hurricanes paying a non-conference visit to the Big Horseshoe, and Big Ten showdowns vs. Wisconsin and Iowa are both on the road. But sixteen starters return, the TB position goes five deep, and of many who could have declared early for the NFL Draft, only DE Thad Gibson decided to make the jump.
4-NEBRASKA...Oh, for Jerry Tagge or David Humm or Vince Ferragamo. Even Turner Gill (though he's unlikely to offer much help in his new job as Kansas HC). What Bo Pelini would do for a reincarnation of one of Nebraska's top QBs from the past, which is all that might stand between the Huskers and a legit title run. Big XII sources believe a "D" that led the nation in fewest points allowed in '09 and when last seen was throwing Arizona around like a bunch of rag dolls in the Holiday Bowl could be even better than last year despite the departure of DT Ndamukong Suh. If one QB from among holdovers Zac Lee (off arm surgery) and Cody Green (erratic as a frosh in '09) or perhaps mobile RS frosh (and spring sensation) Taylor Martinez can emerge, look out.
5-TCU...If the Frogs were only about 8 inches (the distance Texas PK Hunter Lawrence's last-second FG went inside the upright in the Big XII championship tilt) from a berth in last season's BCS title game, there's no reason they can't get close again, not with almost everyone back from last year's school record-setting attack featuring sr. QB Andy Dalton. Sure, elite defenders Jerry Hughes and Daryl Washington will instead be working on Sundays this fall, but shrewd d.c. Dick Bumpas has been fielding voracious stop units for years. If TCU can deal with Oregon State in the opener at Jerry Jones' stadium, it might be full steam ahead until a likely Mountain west showdown at Utah in November. What will it take to lure HC Gary Patterson from Fort Worth, anyway?
6-IOWA...Who knows, were it not for that ankle injury QB Ricky Stanzi suffered in November against Northwestern, maybe the Hawkeyes would have made it into last January's title game (no consolation to Georgia Tech, which was manhandled by Norm Parker's Iowa defense in the Orange Bowl). Now, with a healthy Stanzi, most of the pieces seem to be in place for another run at least into Rose Bowl contention, with a deep combo of TBs featuring Adam Robinson, Brandon Wegher, and a now-healthy Jewel Hampton, perhaps the best DL in the Big Ten, and maybe the country's best ball-hawking safety in Tyler Sash; all Kirk Ferentz is really worried about is plugging a few gaps along his OL. The schedule is BCS-friendly, with a manageable non-conference slate and Big Ten showdowns vs. Wisconsin and Ohio State both at Iowa City.
7-VIRGINIA TECH...That Labor Day opener at FedEx Field isn't only big to Boise State's BCS hopes; it could catapult VPI in that direction as well. A win over the Broncos puts the Hokies on course for eventual bang-bang-bang November showdowns vs. Georgia Tech, North Carolina, and Miami that could put Frank Beamer in position for his first BCS title game in 11 years. The best news for Beamer and Tech fans in the offseason was the decision of respected d.c. Bud Foster to stay put after Georgia nearly lured him away, which should ensure another nasty VT stop unit. The offense, with sr. QB Tyrod Taylor having matured into an effective leader and a now-healthy RB Darren Evans joining '09's frosh revelation Ryan Williams in the backfield, could be as dynamic as the old Michael Vick days in Blacksburg.
8-FLORIDA...So much for Urban Meyer's leave of absence, which quickly turned into one of the biggest non-stories of the year. Meyer is back but we're not quite sure about his Gators, who enter a season for the first time since Meyer's 2005 debut year in Gainesville without Tim Tebow on the roster. Still, as long as successor John Brantley doesn't become distracted or overwhelmed (or both) , Florida should be fine, with the passing game potentially upgraded if soph WR Frankie Hammond Jr. is as good as he looked in spring. Meyer lost d.c. Charlie Strong to Louisville as well as nine of LY's Gators who were taken in the NFL Draft, but when was the last time the talent reservoir wasn't full in Gainesville?
9-TEXAS...If there were any blessing to QB Colt McCoy getting KO'd in the BCS title game vs. Bama, it was that successor Garrett Gilbert got a test run piloting the Longhorn attack in the most pressure-packed of situations. And if Gilbert can improve as much over the course of this season as he did from one half to the next against the Crimson Tide, Mack Brown's bunch should at least be able to stay in control of the Big XII South. Making a serious run at a return to the BCS title game, however, will require the infantry to pick up the pace and for several inexperienced (though well-regarded) defenders to adapt quickly to d.c. Will Muschamp's aggressive schemes.
10-OREGON...The Ducks would have been a slam-bang Top Five pick until rock star QB Jeremiah Masoli decided to steal a computer and a guitar (does he think he's Elvis?) from a campus dorm this past winter. Masoli's subsequent season-long suspension and brushes with the law involving other Ducks thus made for a very uncomfortable offseason in Eugene. So much for that Top Five stuff...at least for the moment. With a gaggle of returning playmakers including homerun soph RB LaMichael James (fortunate not to receive the Masoli suspension treatment for his own transgressions), Oregon could still be the team to beat in the Pac-10 if the remaining QB options (sr. Nate Costa or RS Soph Darron Thomas) don't blink in the spotlight Masoli left behind.
11-WISCONSIN...We can envision AD Barry Alvarez grinning from ear-to-ear in his private box this fall at Camp Randall Stadium as the Badgers go about business in the Alvarez style, with a big, physical, veteran OL bulldozing enemy defenses as north-south blaster RBs deluxe John Clay (expected to be fully recovered from ankle surgeries that kept him out of spring work) & Montee Ball do their best Ron Dayne imitations for HC Bret Bielema, who will probably be smiling just like his boss. An extra bonus is QB Scott Tolzien, who matured into a dynamic force as '09 progressed and paced the Big Ten's highest-scoring attack at 32 ppg. With 10 starters back from that platoon and 8 more on defense (including soph sensation LB Chris Borland), plus a manageable slate, the Badgers loom as a darkhorse BCS title game threat.
12-ARKANSAS...Now, if we could only match the Razorbacks' offense with Nebraska's defense. Since that's not going to happen, we'll have to take our chances with Arkansas outscoring everybody, which might be possible with rocket-armed QB Ryan Mallett (expected by fall to be fully recovered from the foot injury that kept him out of spring work) piloting Bobby Petrino's explosive attack. But any improvement from last year's "D" that ranked 99th vs. the pass will be much appreciated. The schedule is favorable, with alum Jerry Jones hosting the only potentially-tricky non-conference game in his Cowboys Stadium vs. Texas A&M, and SEC West heavies Alabama, Ole Miss, and LSU all visiting Fayetteville or Little Rock.
13-CINCINNATI...It's hard to fly under the radar off an undefeated regular season and second straight BCS appearance, but that's what can happen when losing your head coach to Notre Dame and graduating some marquee weapons. Fortunately, however, Brian Kelly left the Cincy cupboard far from bare for successor Butch Jones, who has already proven he can successfully follow Kelly while winning the past few years at Central Michigan. Remember, the Bearcats didn't lose a beat in '09 when the more mobile Zach Collaros stepped in when the now-graduated Tony Pike was injured, and USC transfer WR Vidal Hazelton could fill Mardy Gilyard's big-play role. The defense needs some re-tooling, but until further notice, the Big East title goes through Nippert Stadium.
14-GEORGIA TECH...The schedule is nasty (trips to Kansas, Clemson, Virginia Tech, and Georgia). And Tech loses first-round picks WR Demaryius Thomas & DE Derrick Morgan, plus star RB Jonathan Dwyer, to the NFL. But Paul Johnson's shrewd game management skills that were a great equalizer at Navy have turned into definable edge with more talent to work with in Atlanta. And since the ACC still can't seem to figure out how to deal with Johnson's spread option, don't expect much dropoff from last year's Orange Bowl team that returns electric jr. Josh Nesbitt at QB. Meanwhile, Al Groh appears a perfect fit as the new d.c.; he certainly knows the league after coaching the past 9 years at Virginia.
15-SOUTHERN CAL...We're not sure what Lane Kiffin has done to keep landing these big-time coaching jobs without having accomplished much besides leaving an incendiary trail in his wake. And we don't know if Pete Carroll left him a crumbling dynasty or a program that needs a new shot of adrenaline after last year's Trojans slipped to their worst mark (9-4) since Carroll's first year on the job in 2001. We do know that soph QB Matt Barkley hardly looked like the second coming of John Elway as a frosh and loses plenty of supporting weaponry from a year ago. Although the talent cupboard is never bare at Troy, and Lane's dad Monte might have a lot of fun coordinating a stop unit with one of the best DLs in the land. Whatever, rest assured SC foes will be getting some unexpected long-distance support in Knoxville this fall.
16-UTAH...Mountain West teams are making a habit of crashing the BCS party and the Utes want back in that shindig after relinquishing their slot to TCU last fall. And the good news for Kyle Whittingham's troops is that the league schedule breaks favorably for them in 2010, with the Frogs and hated (no, h-a-a-a-a-ted) BYU both visiting Salt Lake City. When coupled with non-conference dates vs. Pitt (in a tasty ESPN Thursday-night home opener) and first-ever trip to Notre Dame late in the year, Utah has the sort of schedule to get the notice it desires. And the sort of team to handle it with soph QB Jordan Wynn now an experienced on-field pilot after leading the Utes to yet another bowl win (over Cal in the Poinsettia), their ninth straight, last December.
17-PITTSBURGH...Beware the 'stache! Dave Wannstedt appears on the verge of something special at Pitt, with one of the nation's top pass rushers (Greg Romeus), top runners (Dion Lewis), and top receivers (Jonathan Baldwin). But despite arriving a year ahead of schedule season when narrowly missing out on a BCS berth, the Panthers are going to have to attack an aggressive non-conference schedule (Utah, Miami-Florida, and old nemesis Brian Kelly, now at Notre Dame) and an improved Big East with a green soph QB, Tino Sunseri, who was mostly kept under wraps in spring. Who thought the Panthers might end up missing QB Bill Stull?
18-LSU...Three years removed from a BCS title, and worried about his job? No matter, demanding Baton Rouge folk are neither pleased with the recent direction of Tiger football nor the manner in which LSU has succumbed in most of its defeats under HC Les Miles, whose game-management skills have justifiably come under some fire. And confidence is not exactly sky-high in Tigerland after jr. QB Jordan Jefferson was so unimpressive in spring work that Miles announced that the demoted Jarrett Lee might have a chance to win back his old job in the fall. Still, plenty of playmakers abound, as RS frosh RB Michael Ford and dual-threat soph Russell Shepard figure to spice things up for the strike force, and CB Patrick Patterson might be the nation's best.
19-NORTH CAROLINA...If we were convinced the Tar Heels were going to be any better than a year ago we might rate them a bit higher. But until sr. QB T.J. Yates (14 TDP and 15 picks LY) displays something beyond mere serviceable status, we can't get excited about an attack that has continued to suffer from his shortcomings and spotty work along the OL. Butch Davis' "D," however, remains nasty, and with srs. DT Marvin Austin, LB Quin Sturdivant, and WR Greg Little bypassing the NFL Draft for one more shot in Chapel Hill, there are enough impact performers on hand to once more make UNC appear irresistible on occasion. But there are enough roadblocks on the schedule (such as the opener vs. LSU at the Georgia Dome) to punish any recurring inconsistencies.
20-OKLAHOMA...Bob Stoops was dealt a bad hand last fall, with offensive linchpins QB Sam Bradford & TE Jermaine Gresham KO'd early in the season, while the Sooners were also eventually forced to rotate four different centers due to injuries. The upside of Bradford's injury was that Landry Jones got an early baptism and now has a bowl win (last year's Sun) under his belt. And RB DeMarco Murray could be poised for a breakout campaign. But losing so much prime-cut talent to the NFL (including three of the top four picks) has to hurt just a bit, and there is increasing chatter in Norman that Stoops is paying a bit more attention to potential suitors (Jerry Jones reportedly has him on speed-dial in Dallas ).
21-MIAMI-FLORIDA...Since when did the Hurricanes enlist Fresno State's Pat Hill to make their schedule? Consecutive road trips to Ohio State, Pitt, and Clemson in the first month is the sort of thing Hill's Bulldogs or Sun Belt schools do, not ranked programs such as Miami. But we're beginning to wonder just where the Canes fit in the big-time mix if extending the contract of HC Randy Shannon (who was at the bottom of the ACC pay scale along with BC's Frank Spaziani) proved to be such a sticky issue in the offseason. The rehabilitation of the program likely continues continue as long as QB Jacory Harris (after thumb ligament surgery) and RB Graig Cooper (off ACL surgery) are ready to go this fall.
22-PENN STATE...Those shocked to see Joe Paterno challenging Alabama in pre-league play after facing a steady diet of stiffs in recent years should remember that once upon a time "Shades" took on all comers as he built the Nittany Lions into a national brand. Despite needing to replace his LBs as well as DT Jared Odrick, Paterno's defense should be representative as usual, but this could be a bad year for Penn State to face the Crimson Tide as well as travel to Iowa and Ohio State in Big Ten showdowns because the offense appeared in need of lots more work in spring as the successors to QB Daryll Clark all struggled, while a rebuilt OL looked as if it might need time to jell.
23-NAVY...The Mids are getting so used to visiting the White House as a reward for their Commander-in-Chief Trophies (now seven straight and counting) that sr. QB Ricky Dobbs has decided he wants to return one day to work full-time in the Oval Office. Before then, however, Dobbs could emerge as Annapolis' first Heisman winner since Roger Staubach if he can replicate some of his big numbers from last season that included a staggering 27 rushing TDs out of Navy's familiar spread option that hasn't lost a beat since Ken Niumatalolo succeeded Paul Johnson on the sidelines. And an early look at the schedule suggests the Mids (who last year took Ohio State to the limit, beat Notre Dame for the second time in three seasons, and routed Missouri in the Texas Bowl) don't figure to be prohibitive underdogs in any game for the first time in recent memory.
24-GEORGIA...With Tim Tebow finally leaving Florida, Tennessee in an adjustment phase, South Carolina still seeking traction for Steve Spurrier, Joker Phillips taking over for Rich Brooks at Kentucky, and Vanderbilt being, well, Vanderbilt, the SEC East looks more wide open than it has in recent years. Georgia has admittedly underachieved a bit the past couple of years (which Bulldog Nation has let HC Mark Richt know about), but the Dawgs could be a surprise package this fall if RS frosh QB Aaron Murray continues impressive work that allowed him to win the job in spring and the "D" quickly adapts to new d.c. Todd Grantham's aggressive 3-4 schemes.
25-HOUSTON...Looking for a longshot BCS buster? Try Houston, which starts off behind Boise, TCU and Utah in that queue but will have a puncher's chance in expected shootouts vs. anybody on its schedule (non-league foes UCLA & Mississippi State beware) with QB sr. Case Keenum poised to break almost every NCAA career passing mark after passing for 5671 yards and 44 TDs in '09. Eight other starters return from an irresistible "O" that scored a nation's-best 42 ppg. But the problem area is defense, which allowed 35 or more seven different times last season and forced HC Kevin Sumlin to author sweeping offseason changes, hoping some jucos can fill gaps as new d.c. Brian Stewart rolls the dice with an altered 3-4 alignment.