Colts max buy
Saturday 1:05 p.m. ET: Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills
This AFC non-division grudge match is the first playoff game of Wildcard Weekend. The Colts (11-5 SU, 8-8 ATS) snuck into the playoffs as the 7th seed, needing a win against the Jaguars (28-14) in Week 17 and a loss from the Dolphins in order to punch their ticket to the postseason. Indianapolis won four of their last five games and finished with + 89 in point differential on the season. Meanwhile, the Bills (13-3, 11-5 ATS) posted the 2nd-best regular in the NFL during the regular season and enter the playoffs as the 2-seed. Buffalo has won six straight and just crushed Miami 56-26, winning outright as 3-point home dogs. The Bills won the AFC East and finished the regular season + 126 in point differential.
This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 7-point home favorite. The public is all over the Bills, who look like an unstoppable juggernaut. However, despite more than two-thirds of bets laying the points, we've seen this line drop to 6.5. This sharp reverse line movement signals pro money grabbing the Colts + 7. Wild Card dogs getting 7 points or less are roughly 58% ATS over the past decade. Playoff dogs that see the line stay the same or move in their favor are 57% ATS. Indianapolis is also one of the top contrarian plays of the weekend as the public is loading up on Buffalo. We've also seen some under liability. The public is hammering the over, yet the total has remained frozen at 52 or dipped slightly to 51.5. Both teams were profitable to the over during the regular season (Colts 9-7, Bills 11-4-1). But historically, outdoor playoff unders have cashed roughly 57% over the past decade.