Early Season Fades
By Joe Nelson
The college football season is kicking off in less than two weeks and it has been exciting time with the release of depth charts and the adjustments with the opening week lines. With a blank slate to start the season the statistics from last season play a prominent role in handicapping in the early weeks and often times there are teams that can be overvalued early in the year based on the previous year or based on projections for the full season that may not be relevant in the first few weeks. Here are three teams that should have very strong seasons but likely will open the year a bit overvalued and could be go-against teams in the first few weeks before getting on a roll later in the season.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Notre Dame is one of the most popular teams in the country and naturally they attract a bit more attention than other schools given the great tradition at the school. The Irish have been a pretty mediocre program in recent years however last season the Irish finished with some positive momentum with wins in the final four games including high profile wins at USC and over Miami in the Sun Bowl. Eight wins was the most in a season for the Irish since the strong 2006 season that resulted in a Sugar Bowl spot. Notre Dame had a couple of nice wins over Boston College, Pittsburgh, and Utah in the middle of the season but also lost to several less prominent teams, falling to Navy, Tulsa, and a Michigan team that did not turn out to be very good. Few wins came in convincing fashion with Notre Dame topping 33 points just once (44-20 win over Western Michigan) and statistically Notre Dame out-gained its opponents by just 23 yards on average for the season.
Notre Dame has not had a winning ATS record as home favorites in a season since 2002 and over the last two seasons the Irish are just 2-7-2 in that role. Notre Dame opens the season as a double-digit favorite at home against a talented South Florida team and it could be a much tougher game than the line suggests. The Irish struggled against mobile quarterbacks last season and they will have to face two extremely talented athletes in the first two games of the season in South Florida’s B.J. Daniels and facing Denard Robinson for Michigan. Dayne Crist had his moments last season but he completed less than 60 percent of his passes and the QB edge should be on the opposing sideline for many of the early season games. The late season improvement for Notre Dame was built on the improved numbers for the defense late in the year but the schedule played a big role with much less threatening offensive teams in the second half of the schedule. Notre Dame has the personnel and the schedule to have a fine season but it could be a struggle early in the year with four difficult games to start the season in September so value could be against the Irish early before a favorable late season schedule provides an opportunity for a strong finish.
Hawaii Warriors: The Warriors won ten games last season while posting nearly 40 points per game on offense. Most of the big statistics were posted against very poor competition however as Hawaii’s seven 40+ point efforts included a FCS team and five teams that combined to win just 15 games. QB Bryant Moniz posted over 5,000 yards passing last season with 39 touchdowns and he should be on pace for a huge senior season but there are some question marks on the roster. Moniz is one of just three returning starters on the offense and the defense that had its best season under Coach McMackin also looks quite thin with several top tacklers graduating. The WAC looks wide open and Hawaii deserves to be one of the favorites but two challenging non-conference games to open the season could be problematic and the valuation of Hawaii entering the year appears to be a bit inflated.
Last season Hawaii lost 31-13 at Colorado and the Warriors were held to their second lowest yardage total of the season in that match-up. Colorado rushed for over 250 yards in the game and this was a Buffaloes team mired with distractions that went just 5-7. Colorado has been one of the worst rushing teams in the nation the last few years yet ran for season best numbers in the match-up. Most of the grim predictions for the Buffaloes in 2011 center around a brutally difficult schedule as they enter the Pac-12 and the coaching change also can present some question marks. Colorado is the more experienced team by far however with 16 returning starters and given the higher profile of the program the talent level should surpass the quality of athletes that Hawaii features. Colorado will be dogged by over a touchdown in the opener however and Hawaii will also face a very tough second game at Washington. The Huskies also have a tough slate ahead but could figure into the Pac-12 mix after a breakthrough bowl season last year and a huge Holiday Bowl victory over Nebraska providing some momentum. Expect Hawaii to clean up in the bulk of the WAC schedule but the Warriors are not likely to post as big of numbers early in the year.
Wisconsin Badgers: Wisconsin has emerged as a national force with back-to-back double-digit win seasons as the Badgers look like one of the favorites in the Big Ten. Wisconsin put up huge numbers on offense last year which has not been the norm for the program, ending the year with over 41 points per game scored and 445 yards per game. Those statistics were inflated considerably with 201 points scored in the final three regular season games. Wisconsin had a pretty shaky start to the season however as they were stuck in a tight game at halftime in the opener against a UNLV team that eventually played out to be one of the worst in the nation. Wisconsin also struggled to pull away in a 27-14 win against a San Jose State team that finished 1-12. Wisconsin also easily could have lost to Arizona State, escaping with a 20-19 win on a blocked extra-point and then the Badgers lost their Big Ten opener against Michigan State. These early season struggles came with a veteran offensive line and a proven veteran QB. Wisconsin feels like they have that QB this season with Russell Wilson but it may take a little time for Wilson to get fully acquainted with his teammates and the new offense even though all has looked promising this summer. The offensive line has to replace two NFL draft picks and the defense was suspect at times last season and lost a few key playmakers.
Wisconsin has a similar schedule to open the season as last year, opening with UNLV before a challenging home test with Oregon State visiting Camp Randall. UNLV projects again as a team likely to only win a few games but the Badgers are favored by over two touchdowns more than last season in the match-up at UNLV last year. Wisconsin will also play a solid MAC contender in Northern Illinois at Soldier Field but the entire schedule will be looking forward to the huge October 1st game against Nebraska in the first Big Ten game for the Huskers. Last year Wisconsin had a similar schedule with a huge home date with Ohio State to look forward to and Wisconsin failed to cover in its first five lined games before getting on a late season roll starting in that big game. Wisconsin should be in position to win its first four games but the Badgers could struggle with some inflated spreads based on the big scoring numbers late last season and the high ranking in the polls that is not completely justified.