Elite Eight
When Arizona jumped out to a 17-0 lead over Green Bay, we were on the cusp of seeing the NFL’s most drama-less first-round action ever. The Packers politely came to the rescue, however, and we instead got to watch one of the best games in the league’s postseason history.
Trailing 24-10 at intermission and 31-10 early in the third quarter, Mike McCarthy’s team stormed back into a 38-38 tie with more than 14 minutes left. The Packers were sparked by an onside kick they perfectly executed after pulling to within 31-17. Moments later, Green Bay was within seven on the second of four touchdown passes by Aaron Rodgers in the second half.
Arizona would answer for a 38-24 lead when Larry Fitzgerald made a diving one-handed touchdown catch. However, the Packers responded again, pulling into a 38-38 tie at the 10:57 mark. The Cardinals went back ahead with 4:55 remaining thanks to Kurt Warner’s fifth touchdown pass of the day, a 17-yard strike to Steve Breaston.
But the Packers pulled into another tie at 45-45 with 1:52 left thanks to an 11-yard TD pass from Rodgers to Spencer Havner. The Cardinals quickly drove into field-goal range and had a chance to win, but they were denied the victory when Neil Rackers hooked a 34-yard field goal.
At that point, you had to figure the winner of the coin toss would be in serious business. And, once again, the overtime rules were going to come into serious question, right? Wrong.
Green Bay won the toss and it indeed was in business. Remember when the Packers went into overtime at Denver on Monday Night Football in 2007? On that night, they won the coin flip and elected to receive. Then on the first play from scrimmage, some dude named Brett Favre dropped back to pass and hit a streaking Greg Jennings down the sidelines for an 80-yard scoring strike.
Fast-forward ahead to this year’s playoffs and we had the exact same situation, just a different quarterback. This time, Jennings blew past the defenders for a potential game-winning bomb, only to be overthrown.
To be clear, we aren’t trying to take Rodgers to task. He was nothing short of sensational, completing 28-of-42 passes for 428 yards with four TD passes and a TD run. But he had Jennings for an easy TD and missed him. Two plays later, the season was over.
On third down Rodgers came under pressure and was stripped by Michael Adams. The ball bounced into the hands of Karlos Dansby, who raced 17 yards untouched into the end zone to give the Cardinals a stirring 51-45 win. They cashed tickets as three-point home underdogs, hooking up money-line backers with a plus-125 return.
Ken Whisenhunt's team will now go to New Orleans to face the NFC’s top seed Saturday at 4:30 p.m. Eastern on Fox. Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the Saints as 6½ point home favorites against Arizona. LVSC had the highest total we’ve seen all season (57½) on the send-out. As of early Monday morning, most books had New Orleans as a seven-point ‘chalk’ with the total in the 57-58 range.
VI’s Chris David tossed me several great stats to consider for this Saints-Cards’ total, the highest we’ve seen all year. For starters, the ‘under’ has a lucrative 13-2 record in 15 NFL games with a total in the 50s this season. For the Saints, the ‘under’ is 7-3 when the number is in the 50s. The ‘under’ is 2-0 for the Cards in a pair of games that closed the tally at 50.
Arizona has thrived in road underdog spots this season, going 4-1 straight up and 5-0 against the number. Meanwhile, Sean Payton’s club is 6-2 ATS as a single-digit favorite.
In the prime-time slot Saturday night, Indianapolis will face Baltimore as a 6½-point home favorite. As of early Monday morning, most spots had the total at 44½, while the Ravens were plus-220 to win outright (risk $100 to win $220).
These teams met in Baltimore on Nov. 22 with Indy capturing a 17-15 win as a one-point road favorite. Peyton Manning threw for 299 yards and one touchdown, but he was intercepted twice.
John Harbaugh’s team advanced to the second round by spanking New England 33-14 as a 3 ½-point road underdog. Ray Lewis and Co. forced Tom Brady into one of the worst performances of his career, certainly in terms of his postseason standards. Brady threw three interceptions and also lost a fumble.
Ray Rice set the tone for the winners by busting an 83-yard touchdown run on the first play from scrimmage. By the end of the first quarter, the Ravens led 24-0. Rice finished with 159 rushing yards and two TDs.
Dallas advanced to Round 2 with its first postseason win since 1996, a 34-14 victory over Philadelphia as a four-point home favorite. The Cowboys will bring a four-game winning streak to Minnesota to face the Vikings at 1:00 p.m. Eastern on Sunday.
LVSC opened the Vikings as three-point favorites at even-money with a 48-point total. As of early Monday morning, betting shops were either at 2½ or three, forcing gamblers to pay double juice for Dallas bets at three.
With the Ravens pulling the mild upset against the higher-seeded team, the Jets now go to San Diego instead of Indianapolis. The Chargers are 7 ½-point favorites with a total of 42 ½.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
Keep in mind that Baltimore and Arizona will be working on a short week of preparation, playing a day early on Saturday after advancing Sunday. On the other hand, the Jets and Cowboys get an extra day of rest after Saturday victories ahead of this Sunday’s games.
New Orleans is mired in a 0-5 ATS slide.
Joe Flacco has now led Baltimore to three wins in four career postseason starts that have all come on the road. He’s won at Miami, at Tennessee and now at New England.
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