Thought this might be an interesting read. Phil Steele is usually ok, this year he is off so far. He might be due for a run.
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ESPN Betting Insiders
Every Thursday during the season, Bill Connelly, Preston Johnson, Doug Kezirian and Phil Steele will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for the second full week of the college football season:
Season ATS records:
Connelly: 10-2 (2-1 last week)
Kezirian: 15-7 (3-0 last week)
Johnson: 11-9 (3-1 last week)
Steele: 7-15 (1-4 last week)
Note: Picks from Caesars Sportsbook lines as of Wednesday night.
Saturday's games
New Mexico Lobos at Liberty Flames (-7)
Connelly: Seven points? Are we sure this is the right line? My SP+ ratings give Liberty an 18.6-point edge. The Flames have recently caught fire offensively, scoring 35 points in a surprising blowout of Buffalo and putting up 62 on Hampton. The run game is improving, and receiver Antonio Gandy-Golden is one of the best in the country.
New Mexico's defense is closer to Hampton's than Buffalo's. The Lobos are 129th in defensive SP+ after giving up 66 points to Notre Dame and 52 to New Mexico State. The UNM offense is fun and explosive. Quarterback Tevaka Tuioti is averaging 22 yards per completion, and the run game is solid enough to keep play-action opportunities open. If the Lobos cover, it'll be because they were able to keep up in a shootout. But I like Liberty quite a bit here.
Pick: Liberty (-7)
Texas Tech Red Raiders (+27) at Oklahoma Sooners
Connelly: Taking the over/under into account, oddsmakers are basically predicting a 49-22 or so win for the Sooners. SP+ says something more like 40-22. Tech quarterback Alan Bowman is out, but we'll consider this a test of the surprisingly effective Tech defense (22nd in defensive SP+).
The Red Raiders held Khalil Tate and Arizona to 28 points and only a handful of big plays, which isn't amazing ... but isn't bad. Jalen Hurts and the OU offense are ridiculous, but Tech could force the issue enough to at least cover. Even if the Sooners put up plenty of points, a 27-point spread will require quite a few stops, backup QB or no. OU's defense appears to be better than last year's version, but it is far from dominant.
Pick: Texas Tech +27
Johnson: I agree with Bill's analysis of the Texas Tech defense. Head coach Matt Wells took over this season and changed the identity of the program. At Utah State, Wells ranked top-40 nationally in defensive efficiency in all six seasons he coached (and top-five twice). On the other side of the ball, Bowman is out with an injury, and Wells has said the Raiders will use two backups regularly against the Sooners. I can't recall a time this has worked. It's difficult for one player to get in a rhythm if he's being substituted out every other drive. To make matters worse, the options are Jett Duffey (ask your favorite TTU fans how they feel about him) and Rice transfer Jackson Tyner. Tyner couldn't get on the field at Rice.
The Sooners' defense appears improved to this point as expected, but they certainly won't have issues against these quarterbacks and a Texas Tech offense that managed only 14 points against Arizona with Bowman under center. A bye week for the Red Raiders should help them prepare for Lincoln Riley's offense. My projection is 66.8, so I would grab an under at anything lined in the 70s.
Pick: Under 71
Houston Cougars at North Texas Mean Green (-7)
Connelly: This line feels like a trick. SP+, which doesn't take injuries or personnel changes directly into account (and therefore doesn't acknowledge that Houston star quarterback D'Eriq King is sitting the rest of the season), projects a 38-27 North Texas win.
King was, per ESPN Stats & Information, perhaps one of the most difficult players in college football to replace.
A seven-point line is massively disrespectful to North Texas, which has thumped two bad teams (Abilene Christian and UTSA) by a combined 62 points and probably should have beaten undefeated Cal two weeks ago in Berkeley (the Mean Green outgained the Bears by 51 yards and fell via turnover luck as much as anything). Maybe Houston shows some amazing spark in King's absence. More likely, the Coog defense continues to give up big plays, and UNT scores a comfortable in-state win.
Pick: North Texas -7
UCLA Bruins at Arizona Wildcats (-7.5)
Connelly: Consider this a head-over-heart pick. It would be amazing if last week's massive UCLA comeback over Washington State were the start of a new UCLA, if the Bruins used that as a catalyst to play high-level, explosive, fun-as-hell, Chip-Kelly-circa-2010 football for the rest of the season. It is at least conceivable that that will happen.
It's far more conceivable, however, that the 7.5-point line is an overreaction to a small sample and that UCLA falls back to earth. SP+ projects a 42-28 Arizona win, and if we're going to overreact to one game, we should at least consider overreacting to Arizona's win over Texas Tech instead. In that game, quarterback Khalil Tate was a massive difference-maker (he looked more like the 2017 version of Tate than we've seen so far under Kevin Sumlin), and the Wildcats' defense did an excellent job of preventing big Tech gains. Arizona isn't trustworthy by any stretch of the imagination -- just two games before Tech, the Wildcats gave up 45 points and lost to Hawaii -- but they're more trustworthy than Kelly's Bruins.
Pick: Arizona -7.5
NC State Wolfpack at Florida State Seminoles (-7)
Johnson: The Wolfpack are trending in the wrong direction. They followed a 17-point loss to West Virginia with a non-cover at home against Ball State. NC State hasn't had an impactful rushing attack, and it has proven costly, seeing as the Wolfpack had to replace their quarterback and the majority of their receivers this offseason. They haven't yet faced a team with the speed and athleticism that FSU brings to the field. West Virginia is the closest comparison, and it scored 44 on the Wolfpack after scoring just seven points against Missouri. Seminoles QB James Blackman was injured this past Saturday against Louisville, but Wisconsin transfer Alex Hornibrook was able to make the correct reads and run Kendal Briles' offense. Blackman is practicing this week, but I'm not too concerned about which QB starts.
I'm not sure if it's a Willie Taggart coaching adjustment blunder, but FSU is 4-0 ATS in the first half, yet until last week, the Seminoles hadn't covered a full-game spread this season. This was a trend for the Seminoles last year as well. Briles has scripted early-game drives brilliantly to this point, and against NC State, I don't see that changing. I'm laying the points with FSU in the first half.
Pick: Florida State 1H -4
Virginia Cavaliers at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-12.5)
Johnson: I have been waiting all week for the Notre Dame number to steam higher, and so far we have seen it move from -11 to -12.5. I'm going to be on UVA in both the first half and full game, but I will continue to wait this out until I feel like the market has peaked on the Irish.
While Notre Dame's defensive performance was strong this past Saturday against Georgia, I put some of the blame on Kirby Smart's ultra-conservative game plan. I also think that the Irish struggled more offensively than people realize at first glance. Virginia has a strong defense that will be able to keep this banged up Irish offense, potentially without its top two RBs, in check.
One angle that has been extremely profitable for me over the years is betting against young QBs seeing Bronco Mendenhall's defense that incorporates concepts from a 3-3-5 scheme for the first time. It isn't run by many coaches anymore, and quarterbacks don't grow up seeing it. Here are three fairly recent instances this stood out against NFL-level quarterbacks:
1. BYU traveled to UCLA in 2015 and faced freshman Josh Rosen. The Bruins were held to just three points in the first 35 minutes of the game despite being favored by as many as 17 points. BYU gave up back-to-back touchdowns late to lose 24-23.
2. Mendenhall took over a Virginia team that went 2-10 in 2016. However, when fifth-ranked Lousiville and future Heisman trophy winner Lamar Jackson visited Charlottesville as 34-point favorites, the Cavaliers held them to just seven points in the first half and led for the majority of the game. It took a long Jackson touchdown pass with 13 seconds left to avoid one of the biggest upsets in college football history.
3. In 2017 an improved Virginia team visited Boise State and QB Brett Rypien as 13.5- point underdogs and won the game outright by 19 points. Rypien threw for zero touchdowns and an INT before getting pulled in the fourth quarter trailing 42-14.
I went through the Irish schedule and double-checked, but Ian Book has never played against a 3-3-5 type defense. Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly said in the postgame conference following their loss to Georgia that it was one of the most physical games he has ever coached in. The timing and the spot line up, I expect the Xs and Os to be in the Cavaliers favor and we're getting an underappreciated price thanks to UVA's performance this past Saturday against Old Dominion. I'll be grabbing some +400 on the moneyline as well.
Pick: Virginia first half +7 and full game +12.5
BYU Cougars (-2.5) at Toledo Rockets
Johnson: There isn't much to this one for me besides my projections being quite a bit higher (BYU -5.4). Bettors were all over Colorado State against Toledo last week (Toledo -9 down to -5.5 on game day), but the Rockets wound up winning the game by six, so most of the action on the Rams came out ahead. BYU lost 45-19 at home to Washington in Week 4, so maybe that is the reason for some of the market reaction here, but it was a pretty difficult spot for the Cougars coming off exhausting OT wins against Tennessee and USC in back-to-back weeks.
Toledo QB Mitch Guadagni has been dealing with a shoulder injury suffered against Kentucky (and attempted only 11 passes against CSU this past Saturday). BYU is the better team, and getting under a field goal here in the current market is plenty of value for me to back the Cougars.
Pick: BYU -2.5
Ohio State Buckeyes (-17.5) at Nebraska Cornhuskers
Johnson: The Buckeyes haven't been tested yet, but it appears that I was wrong about them entering the season. It helps that Michigan hasn't performed to expectation, but Ohio State and Wisconsin are the two clear favorites now in the Big Ten.
Despite the positive adjustments that I've made on Ryan Day's squad, I still project this spread to be Nebraska +15. The final score this past Saturday for the Cornhuskers in Illinois was deceiving. Nebraska outgained the Illini 671 yards to 299 and converted 32 first downs to just 14 for Illinois. The Cornhuskers fumbled the ball four times -- and lost all four. The explosive rushing attack was alive and well outside of the turnovers (they scored 44 on a competent Northern Illinois program the week prior), and this was the Buckeyes' biggest weakness defensively last season. They'll truly be tested against Adrian Martinez & Co. in Lincoln, and I expect Nebraska to keep it within this number.
Pick: Nebraska +17.5
Buffalo Bulls (-1.5) at Miami Ohio Redhawks
Steele: Chuck Martin and Miami pick up their paycheck games in September and take their beatings this season, losing to the likes of Ohio State, Iowa and Cincinnati. Martin is now 3-22 in nonconference games. He flips the switch when MAC play begins, and Miami is 16-6 both straight-up and ATS in Martin's past 22 MAC games. Buffalo caught Temple in a sandwich game last week and pulled off an upset, but two weeks ago, it lost at Liberty 35-17. Miami doesn't look great statistically but has taken on the 14th-toughest schedule in the country, compared to Buffalo's 111th. Miami will get this must-win game at home.
ATS pick: Miami (OH) +1.5
Score: Miami Ohio 27, Buffalo 20
Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-7) at Boston College Eagles
Steele: Boston College has played well this season, except for that Kansas home loss, which has defined the Eagles' season. The Eagles beat Wake Forest on the road last year with a healthy AJ Dillon rushing for 185 yards. Dillon is again healthy, and Boston College is 4-0-2 ATS the past six times it has been a home underdog, including an upset of Virginia Tech in the opener this year. The Eagles have the offense to trade points with Wake Forest and will grab another upset win as a home 'dog.
ATS pick: Boston College +7
Score: Boston College 37, Wake Forest 34
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Purdue Boilermakers (PK)
Steele: Minnesota is 3-0 but could easily be 0-3, as the Golden Gophers have needed fourth-quarter comebacks in all three games against the likes of South Dakota State, Fresno State and Georgia Southern (with two of those at home). The Gophers have a massive offensive line and a bevy of talented running backs but are averaging just 124 rushing yards per game and 2.6 yards per carry. Purdue was minus-five in turnovers and lost on the road at Nevada, despite leading 24-7 at the half. QB Elijah Sindelar missed the home game versus a ranked TCU team, and the offense struggled against that top-notch Horned Frog defense. Sindelar should return this week, and Purdue's dangerous receiver unit led by Rondale Moore will get back on track. Minnesota is 1-10 straight-up in its past 11 Big Ten road games.
ATS pick: Purdue (PK)
Score: Purdue 34, Minnesota 27
UAB Blazers (-3) at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Steele: Two years ago, Bill Clark had a young squad that hadn't played football in two years. The Blazers opened slowly the first two games but went 7-1 ATS in their next eight games, covering by 14.3 points per game. Clark has a young team again this year but covered on the road against Akron and destroyed South Alabama at home last week 35-3. UAB is a complete team with a veteran QB in Tyler Johnson, a powerful running back in Spencer Brown and an offensive line that has allowed just one sack.
The Blazers also have a blitzing defense that has recorded 13 sacks and is allowing only 285 yards per game. Bill Clark is one of the most underrated coaches in the country and is 20-9-1 ATS the past three seasons. WKU has a first-year head coach, a first-time starter at QB and an offense averaging 119 yards per game less than what its opponents usually allow.
ATS pick: UAB -3
Score: UAB 28, Western Kentucky 20
UNLV Rebels at Wyoming Cowboys (-9.5)
Steele: Tony Sanchez is 15-7 ATS as an away 'dog and 10-19 ATS in all other situations. This season, the Rebels covered at Northwestern in a competitive game in which they led 14-10 and gave up a TD with 90 seconds left after being stopped on downs at their 7-yard line. UNLV is off a bye, and Sanchez is nearing must-win territory if the Rebels are going to make a bowl. The Rebels are 10-3 ATS when QB Armani Rogers starts and is able to play the majority of the game in his three years, and he is healthy.
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Wyoming might be 3-1, but it has been outgained by 99 yards per game, and that includes wins over Texas State and Idaho. Wyoming's defense held opponents to 99 yards per game below their season averages last season but this season is allowing opponents to gain 125 yards per game above their season averages. Cowboy QB Sean Chambers is completing just 38% of his passes, and Wyoming's offensive line is banged up. Wyoming's largest win has been by nine points, and the Cowboys are laying more than that here.
ATS Pick: UNLV +9.5
Score: Wyoming 27, UNLV 24
Arizona State Sun Devils at California Golden Bears (-4.5)
Kezirian: I have some mild concerns here about a flat spot for Cal, coming off the emotional road win over Ole Miss, but being undefeated instills confidence that the Bears will approach this game appropriately. Justin Wilcox has built the Bears into conference contenders, and they have a chance here to flex their muscles on national television in prime time. ASU true freshman quarterback Jayden Daniels has had his moments, but I anticipate a showing similar to what we saw against Michigan State. The Sun Devils mustered only one touchdown in East Lansing, and that entailed an unlikely conversion on fourth-and-13 in the fourth quarter. I anticipate a solid win for the Bears while limiting the Sun Devils on offense.
Pick: Cal -4.5 and Arizona State team total under 18 points (FanDuel)
Clemson Tigers (-27) at North Carolina Tar Heels
Kezirian: Clemson owns the nation's top defense and has yet to allow a touchdown in the first half. I expect that dominance to continue against a freshman quarterback. Meanwhile, the Tigers' offense finally experienced a breakthrough with 38 points before intermission last week. Dabo Swinney is willing to play backup quarterbacks and other reserves, so I will jump on the first-half line and hope to avoid sweating a backdoor cover with the rationale that Swinney might ease up against Mack Brown.
Pick: Clemson -14.5 (first half) (FanDuel)
UConn Huskies at UCF Knights (-43.5)
Kezirian: For the first time since 2016, we have to handicap UCF off a regular-season loss. Beyond that, it's a monster spread against one of the nation's worst teams. Obviously, this could play out a few ways, but I am going with a trend that has become fairly common in college football: When a school with undefeated aspirations suffers a loss during the regular season, you often see a deflated team in the next game. I think hosting a weak opponent such as the Huskies only compounds that flat spot. I will try to maximize the lack of intensity and back the underdog in the first half.
Pick: UConn +28 (first half) (FanDuel)
Ole Miss Rebels at Alabama Crimson Tide (-38)
Kezirian: Coaching against Nick Saban is hard enough. Coaching against a salty version is even more unpleasant. That's what's in store for the Rebels, as Saban will never forget how he lost back-to-back meetings in 2014 and 2015. I envision another dominant showing from a Bama offense that surpassed 60 points each of the past two years and a defense that seems to have this Ole Miss offense solved; the Rebels scored 10 total points the past two meetings. This week, Saban said he wanted to improve the run game. If that continues to struggle, perhaps we will see a more competitive game. But I think eventually Alabama will light up the scoreboard.
Pick: Alabama -38 and Alabama team total over 49.5 (FanDuel)
USC Trojans at Washington Huskies (-10.5)
Kezirian: USC answered the challenge and defeated a ranked Utah team as an underdog on Friday ... but that came at home and could have been a fluke, given that the Trojans mustered only 13 rushing yards. This is a much tougher situation.
You can never fully erase a game, but given the ridiculously extensive weather delay, I am willing to look past Washington's home loss to Cal. This is a potent offense and a defense that can be nasty, having allowed only three touchdown passes in four games. Can USC continue to find magic with whichever backup quarterback the Trojans choose? I suppose it can, but I'll take the Huskies and protect myself a bit on the team total because I think Jacob Eason will have his way with the Trojans' defense. Clay Helton is 3-11 ATS as an underdog, and I think Chris Petersen has the coaching advantage.
Pick: Washington -10.5 and Washington team total over 35.5 (FanDuel)