Fade Alert - Ohio
By Lance Blankenship
VegasInsider.com
The Mid-American Conference has earned its stripes as a quality conference in college football. We’ve seen some great schools produce on the gridiron in the MAC and we’ve also had a handful of teams that have been automatic fades at the betting counter.
Ohio University has been a very consistent winner, earning a bowl trip each of the last five years. This season, instead of appearing in the "Beef ‘O' Brady's Bowl" or the "Idaho Potato Bowl", I’m predicting that the Bobcats will appear in the infamous toilet bowl.
Ohio UNDER 6½ (-175)
At 5Dimes.eu, the Bobcats have a win total of 6 ½ and the money is shaded to the ‘under’ (-175), which says something right off the bat. I don’t have any issues laying the extra juice because there is no way that Ohio wins seven games in the regular season.
I have been a huge Frank Solich backer for many years but I believe the head coach has lost it. During last season's late three-game losing streak in November, Solich looked like Humphrey Bogart in "The Caine Mutiny".
His assistants would run when he looked at them and the team fell into disarray. The late season free-fall was abated only by a visit by lowly Massachusetts, who Ohio easily hammered 58-23. In the Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl a few weeks later in December, East Carolina pounded the Bobcats 37-20 on the ground.
This season, I expect the Bobcats to lack scoring punch. They have zero talent at the offensive skill positions. Losing veteran quarterback Tyler Tettleton will be tough to replace, plus Ohio also needs to find a replacement for running back Beau Blankenship too.
From a schedule perspective, Ohio didn’t get any gifts this season.
The Bobcats play away from home in their first three contests (Kent State, Kentucky, Marshall). If Solich can't escape Kent with a win, he will return to Athens 0-3, rolling his ball bearings in his hand like Captain Quegg from the aforementioned “The Caine Mutiny.”
At 0-3, his seat may get hot in Athens.
Fortunately for Ohio it stays home for the next two games and most would believe the school could rebound with wins over Idaho and Eastern Illinois.
Soon after, Game 6 is at Central Michigan and this is dangerous. The Chippewas bring back 11 starters on offense and they will blow the Bobcats off the field. CMU has a big-time NFL WR in Titus Davis and he will excel against the Bobcats raw secondary.
Delving into the first six games further, the best case scenario for Ohio is 2-4 but I believe a 1-5 mark is very possible and 0-6 would not be surprising, especially if Idaho and Eastern Illinois bring their “A” game to Athens. Make a note that EIU is a quality squad and plays great football albeit at the lower level (1-AA).
The final six games get a little more interesting but based on my thoughts below, you can see why I’m still buying the ‘under’ 6 ½ for Ohio this regular season.
Game 7 vs. Bowling Green: This is a definite loss, and it could get ugly on homecoming for Ohio. Bowling Green is coming to town and they bring a future NFL starter at QB in Matt Johnson. The Falcons will rack up a big number and leave Ohio in the dust. Last year, the Falcons won 49-0 and nothing, except for the change in venue, leads me to believe that this contest will be any closer. Solich will be snapping at assistants and rolling his ball bearings compulsively one-handedly. The Bobcats drop to 2-5 or 3-4.
Game 8 vs. Akron: Terry Bowden will bring a rejuvenated Akron team to Athens. Akron plays Penn State, Marshall, and Pittsburgh during September so the Zips' record won’t be great and they could go off as slight underdogs here. That would be great because Akron is going to repay Solich for running up the score in last year's 43-3 win in the Rubber City. This will be another contest where the Bobcats' lack of offense allows an opponent to get loose and play "downhill" all game. Ohio University goes to 2-6 or 3-5.
Game 9 at Western Michigan: The Broncos should be improved but they are still a bottom class MAC squad. This is no gimme victory for the Bobcats. This game is at Western Michigan, the weather may be cold and windy, and as mentioned above Ohio University lacks a QB. Look for a close game between bad teams. I’d lean to Ohio winning a close game. They move to 3-6 or 4-5.
Game 10 vs. Buffalo: The Bulls has a winner behind center in Joe Licata. The loss of linebacker Khalil Mack will be felt all season for Buffalo’s defense but this is a spot where it won't matter. The Bulls will score 40 or more and beat Ohio as badly as they did last season (30-3). The Bobcats will drop to 3-7 or 4-6 and with NIU on deck, bettors will start to see this school pack it in.
Game 11 vs. Northern Illinois: The Huskies loses quarterback Jordan Lynch but little else. They will field a decent QB this fall and that is all they need to make it to the MAC Championship Game. The Huskies will have no trouble beating Ohio. The Bobcats will fall behind and their lack of QB play will make comebacks impossible this season. Ohio goes to 3-8 or 4-7.
Game 12 at Miami, Ohio: I believe the RedHakws are a beatable team for Solich and the Bobcats. However, I also believe that this Ohio team will have folded the tent by kickoff. Look for Miami to best the Bobcats as slight home underdogs on Senior Day. Ohio University finishes at 3-9 or 4-8.
Fade Alert - Ohio State
By Lance Blankenship
VegasInsider.com
Since head coach Urban Meyer became head coach of Ohio State in 2012, the Buckeyes have posted a 24-2 record and that includes back-to-back 12-0 marks in the regular season.
Oddsmakers at Sportsbook.ag have posted a win total of 10½ (-120) for the 2014 regular season. While a lot of experts believe Meyer and company should dominate the Big Ten this season, I’m not one of them.
I believe UNDER 10½ is a great play and I also believe this Buckeyes squad is incredibly overrated.
Before going over all 12 of the Buckeyes' games this upcoming season, I would like to make some general observations about the team.
Defensively, Ohio State will field their worst secondary in 20-25 years on opening day against Navy. OSU returns only one starter (Doran Grant) in the defensive backfield. The other three DBs are greenhorns and will get torched all year.
Another glaring weak point for Ohio State is their offensive line. Again, I believe the Buckeyes will feature their worst offensive line in 20 seasons. Taylor Decker is the only returning full-time starter. He is moving from RT to LT in order to give Miller time to work his magic. Teams will pour through OSU's blockers and force Miller to make mistakes. The Buckeyes lost three great linemen to graduation in Andrew Norwell, Corey Lindsey and All-American tackle Jack Mewhort. The drop-off in protection will be profound.
Ohio State will also feel the loss of four more great players, in particular Ryan Shazier, Bradley Roby, Carlos Hyde, and Corey "Philly" Brown. All four were winners, plus Drew Basil was a steady placekicker and he also departs.
Again, it’s hard to ignore the 24-2 record the last two seasons but we can’t forget that the Buckeyes ended last year’s season with a two-game skid.
Some novice bettors might’ve forgotten that Miller was injured last season and fortunately Ohio State had a stable backup in senior Kenny Guiton. He’s gone and there isn’t much experienced behind Braxton this fall. If Miller were to be injured early in the season and unable to return, OSU could finish 7-5 or 6-6.
Let's look at Ohio State's 12 opponents.
Game 1 vs. Navy (at Baltimore): Quarterback Keenan Reynolds will burn the young OSU secondary. Reynolds is fast and shifty on his feet and accurate when passing for short gains. The Midshipmen return 15 starters and this is essentially a home game for them. Navy's secondary features four returnees with starting experience. Their offensive line is also a seasoned strength. Ohio State opened as a 19-point favorite and I believe Navy is the play. Ohio State will probably wear down the Midshipmen late but they won't win by 20. If Keenan Reynolds is hot and Navy can get to Miller two or three times, an enormous upset could definitely happen.
Game 2 vs. Virginia Tech: The Hokies bring back 14 starters. They will feature an unknown at QB. I would grade their offensive line with a B+ but the strength of this roster is the secondary. They have two 1st round draft picks in the defensive backfield. VT will treat this game as if it were the National Championship. Ohio State will probably be an 11 to 13-point home favorite at kickoff. I have no opinion on the point-spread because VT could fold early. Or, Frank Beamer may call a sterling game and the Hokies may get a few lucky bounces and leave Columbus in victorious fashion.
Game 3 vs. Kent State: Kent State has a terrible QB and no chance of winning this game. Ohio State will be favored by five TDs, maybe a little more. Ohio State has not lost to an in-state foe in a century. Kent State will mount no offense while allowing Miller to rack up TDs. Ohio State should be 3-0 or 2-1 after this contest.
Game 4 vs. Cincinnati: Ohio State will benefit from a bye week in the lead up to Cincinnati. The Buckeyes will be heavily favored and with good reason. UC always has a shot to win games with a gambler like head coach Tommy Tuberville calling the shots. Cincinnati also has the #1 QB prospect from three years ago in Gunner Kiel, who originally signed with Notre Dame. Look for OSU to go to 3-1 or 4-0 after this contest. UC's lack of blocking power will allow Ohio State to stop them quickly and force plenty of 3-and-outs.
Game 5 at Maryland: I believe this is the key spot on the Buckeyes' schedule. Most pundits don’t have much faith in Maryland this season. I do. The Terrapins have a diamond in the rough in QB CJ Brown. In between injuries, he has shown moments of brilliance. Maryland also has three outstanding six-foot-plus WRs, all NFL prospects. Ohio State will not move the ball steadily against Maryland. The Terps have nine starters back on defense. Ohio State will go off as a slight road favorite here. Look for Maryland to beat OSU soundly by avoiding OSU's front four with quick slant passes. Randy Edsall will best Meyer here. Ohio State falls to 4-1 or 3-2.
Game 6 vs. Rutgers (Homecoming): Both teams will be coming off bye weeks. Rutgers returns 16 starters but they will be outclassed in Columbus on Homecoming. Nova, the unpredictable Rutgers QB, will not evade OSU front seven. Rutgers' front seven is very light for a Big Ten school. They will get pushed around all day. Take Ohio State here. The Buckeyes may be laying 23 at home but they'll cover. Ohio State moves to 5-1 or 4-2.
Game 7 at Penn State: This game will be played on Oct. 25 in Happy Valley. This could be an extremely tough spot for OSU and bad weather is always possible. A hostile crowd is guaranteed as OSU has excelled at PSU in its last three trips there. Ohio State scored 63 against PSU last year and this will motivate Penn State. Look for new head coach James Franklin to get his first signature win as PSU's boss in this contest. PSU gunslinger Christian Hackenberg will burn OSU's secondary. Ohio State goes to 5-2 or 4-3.
Game 8 vs. Illinois: Ohio State will put up a huge number against Illinois. The Buckeyes may not cover, but they will win this game easily. Last year Ohio State scored 60 but still didn't cover. (They won 60-35 as 34 point favorites). Ohio State goes to 6-2 or 5-3.
Game 9 at Michigan State: I believe Michigan State is going to beat Oregon on Sept. 6. This could very well make the Spartans front-runners for the college football playoff. A win over Ohio State will stamp the Spartans' ticket to the four-team playoff. Look for QB Connor Cook to outplay Braxton Miller and for the Spartans to beat Ohio State as soundly as they beat them in the Big Ten Championship Game last year. Ohio State goes to 6-3 or 5-4.
Game 10 at Minnesota: Urban Meyer will not allow his team to fold. They are four touchdowns better than Minnesota and will win this contest by roughly that margin. OSU goes to 7-3 or 6-4.
Game 11 vs. Indiana: Ohio State destroys Indiana on a yearly basis. This year's contest may be very high scoring. OSU will win by 15-20. The Sudfeld/Roberson duo at QB for Indiana will put up points but not enough to beat OSU. Ohio State moves to 8-3 or 7-4.
Game 12 vs. Michigan: Ohio State was favored by 16 in Ann Arbor last year and won by one point on the last play of the game. This Michigan club is better and they enter this game with revenge on its minds. Ohio State may be deflated by not having a shot at the playoff. They could be beaten at home. This game is a toss-up, leaving Ohio State either 9-3, 8-4, or 7-5 for the regular season.
My prediction is that Ohio State will win eight games, nine perhaps, at best, and that’s only if Braxton Miller doesn’t get hurt.
The only problem with this winning ticket is that you have to wait five months to cash it.
Fading WVU - Again
By Lance Blankenship
VegasInsider.com
Last season, I strongly believed that West Virginia would be lucky to win four games.
I received an incredible amount of angry responses from WVU fans and derision from local writers who said I was "reckless" and "irresponsible" for making such outlandish predictions.
West Virginia went 4-8.
This season in Morgantown, I’m not expecting an improvement and would advise bettors to invest in Under 4½ victories (+100), which can be purchased at 5Dimes.eu.
Here’s why I’m leaning to another ‘under’ ticket on WVU.
I had several chances to watch WVU's spring practices and make some general observations. The quarterback position spot will again be woeful and head coach Dana Holgorsen knows he doesn’t have a clear-cut starter.
Clint Trickett was recently named the starter but as he displayed last year, he stinks. A completion percentage in the fifties (52.8%) is very poor on the college level and his touchdown to interception (7/7) is just as worse.
At running back, the Mountaineers will need to replace a workhorse in Charles Sims, who is now in the NFL. This year's WVU backfield will be running back by committee and nobody has shown the talent of Sims.
Chemistry wise, Holgorsen and his system was praised and anticipated on his arrival. However, it’s evident that he doesn’t have the horses to improve on last year’s mark.
Let’s break down all 12 of the Mountaineers’ 12-game regular season schedule.
Game 1 vs. Alabama from Atlanta: The Tide opened as 25-point favorites and this line has jumped slightly. Alabama will beat WVU in colossal fashion. The Tide will score 8-9 touchdowns against WVU's hapless defense. I firmly believe this. WVU had the worst defense of any power conference team in the country last year. The two best players from that squad, Will Clarke and Shaq Rowell, are gone. They will be even more putrid this year. Safety Darwin Cook's departure makes WVU more vulnerable to deep balls also. Alabama will beat WVU by 45-50 points.
Game 2 vs. Towson State: Last year, WVU closed as 33- point favorites at home versus William and Mary. The Mountaineers escaped with a 24-17 win after trailing at halftime. An untimely and stupid personal foul on William and Mary's TE may have cost the Tribe a historic upset. Look for a similar result in this contest. WVU will be beaten physically and mentally from the Alabama slaughter. Towson is a solid FCS team. They score with a sharp passing attack. Look for WVU to lay heavy double digits here. Towson will most likely be overpowered down the stretch, but WVU won't come close to covering.
Game 3 at Maryland: Maryland crushed WVU 37-0 last year and this year's result will be similar. Randy Edsall has 17 starters back and he is worth a touchdown in coaching strategy over Holgorsen. Maryland quietly has a deadly WR corps with two NFL prospects. The Terrapins defense will allow very little to WVU. Maryland is not getting the attention I think they deserve. They are going to make noise in their inaugural season in the Big Ten.
Game 4 vs. Oklahoma: WVU was competitive in Norman last year as three touchdown underdogs, but weakened down the stretch. They won't be competitive this year at home. Bob Stoops has a loaded roster and a gunslinger behind center, Trevor Knight. He gained great confidence in his sterling performance against Alabama. Stoops will pulverize Holgorsen. WVU will be 1-3 after this contest with a bye week to follow. Holgorsen will surely be fired this season. Could it happen during this open week?
Game 5 vs. Kansas: Charlie Weis has a much improved club. Kansas demolished WVU last year. Look for this line to be WVU -4 at home. Kansas will win mainly due to the difference in coaching. Weis calls a great game while Holgorsen does not. Kansas has a scrambling QB who will impress against WVU's soft defense.
Game 6 at Texas Tech: Texas Tech will be a mediocre team this season. WVU could win this game as I believe Kliff Kingsbury is going to come back to life in his second season. Holgorsen spent 7 years with Texas Tech and could steal this game as this is not Rommel vs. Montgomery. This is bad coach vs. bad coach. WVU may get a "W" here to improve to 2-4 on the year but certainly not guaranteed.
Game 7 vs. Baylor: Baylor amassed 872 against WVU's defense last year. Bryce Petty is back at QB and the results will be similar. Baylor will be favored by 10 to 11 points and will cover easily. WVU will be 2-5 after this tilt.
Game 8 at Oklahoma State: WVU beat Oklahoma State last year as 19-point underdogs and it might surprise you but I expect WVU to beat the Cowboys again this year. Oklahoma State brings back only eight starters and Gundy is not a good X’s and O’s coach. WVU moves to 3-5.
Game 9 vs. TCU: TCU will have payback on its minds as this contest begins. WVU stole an overtime win in Fort Worth last year. TCU has 16 starters back and two good QBs. Look for the Horned Frogs to beat WVU by daylight. WVU goes to 3-6.
Game 10 at Texas: Texas will be much improved this year. The addition of Charlie Strong and the return of 15 starters will give the Longhorns a shot at the Big 12 Title. WVU will be outclassed here. Look for Texas to close as 20-point favorites or more. WVU goes to 3-7.
Game 11 vs. Kansas State: Kansas State and WVU will both be coming off bye weeks. The difference is KSU will be jockeying for bowl position while WVU's season will be meaningless at this point. Holgorsen will be either gone or he will be a lame duck. This is a Thursday night game which usually leads to a big crowd in Morgantown. It will be an empty stadium and WVU will be 3-8 as this game goes final.
Game 12 at Iowa State: Paul Rhoads is a great coach. Iowa State rarely has an abundance of talent but Rhoads gets the nod here. He beat WVU last year in Morgantown as a 7-point underdog. Iowa State will be favored by 7 at home and they will cover. WVU ends the season at 3-9.
I had under wvu last year as well