Fade Alert - Week 2
By Bruce Marshall
If it looks like a duck, it probably is a duck.
So it goes for bad football teams, who are often easy to identify merely by the proverbial "eye" test. And early in any football season, it often takes the oddsmakers and wagering public a while to gauge the magnitude of the problems that often afflict these troubled entries.
Thus, when looking to catch point-spread streaks in their earliest stages, it’s never bad idea to look for struggling teams that appear as if they could reel off several losses in a row vs. the number. And even though the 2010 college season is only one week old, there are already a few prime candidates on the "go-against" list. Following are some of those squads we might want to "fade" this weekend.
MEMPHIS (Saturday, at East Carolina)...Nothing went right for the Tigers in their opening 49-7 loss at Mississippi State, which was the debut game for new HC Larry Porter. To say the Tigers have a long way to go would be an understatement, with Porter and his staff looking for new combinations in the secondary after it was torched by Bulldog QBs Chris Relf and Tyler Russell last week. Moreover, it doesn’t appear as if Memphis is ready to outscore anybody, with Porter likely to continue rotating his pair of inexperienced alternatives, soph Cannon Smith (son of FedEx founder Fred Smith; Porter might want to keep playing Cannon just to keep one of Memphis’ biggest boosters happy) and RS frosh Ryan Williams. Thus, it doesn’t appear as if a quick turnaround from Memphis’ recent woes (now 2-11 its last 13 vs. the spread) are imminent. Conversely, this week’s foe ECU hit the ground running under its new HC, Ruffin McNeill, last week vs. Tulsa, and remember that new Pirate QB Dominique Davis had previous starting experience at Boston College. The Pirates have also covered their last 8 vs. Memphis.
KANSAS (Saturday, vs. Georgia Tech)...The Jayhawks unraveled last season under HC Mark Mangino, who was rewarded by being dismissed from his job. In the meantime, KU finished ‘09 by losing its last seven games, and new HC Turner Gill wasn’t able to stop the bleeding in his first game, a startling 6-3 loss to North Dakota State. Making things more problematic for Gill is that neither of his QBs, Kale Pick nor Jordan Webb, looked remotely comfortable running the Jayhawk attack that for the past four years was piloted by the exciting and overachieving Todd Reesing. Keeping with earshot of a Georgia Tech team that was humming in its usual manner last week vs. South Carolina State (twelve different Yellow Jackets carried the ball en route to 372 rushing yards) and has covered 9 of 11 tries as a visitor since HC Paul Johnson arrived in 2008, might be a tall order.
SAN JOSE STATE (Saturday, at Wisconsin)...Whose idea was it for the Spartans to open their season at Alabama and Wisconsin in back-to-back weeks? Such is the life of a revenue-starved program at the bottom of the college football food chain. The Spartans will willing to sacrifice a lot of lumps, and a disruption of the long-running local series with peninsula neighbor Stanford, for these paydays at Tuscaloosa and Madison. The problem is that San Jose is not nearly as competitive as it was a few years ago, when Dick Tomey’s regime was flying rather high. The Spartans have regressed back to the sort of lowly status that marked the era of Tomey predecessor Fitz Hill, leaving little for new HC Mike MacIntyre. And this week, SJSU brings a 1-15 spread amrk in its last 16 games on the board to Camp Randall Stadium. This was certainly no season for San Jose to front-load its schedule, with not only the Crimson Tide and Badgers, but Utah and WAC heavyweights Boise State and Nevada all on the slate by mid-October. Will there be anything left of the Spartans after midseason?
NEW MEXICO (Saturday, vs. Texas Tech)...How could things have gotten any worse for the Lobos after a 1-11 mark in HC Mike Locksley first season that saw the head coach slapped with a sex and age discrimination complaint filed by a football administrative assistant, then get handed a 10-day suspension by AD Paul Krebs for becoming involved in fisticuffs with assistant coach J.B. Gerald? Well, maybe they have, as after last week’s 72-0 humiliation at the hands of Oregon, the cries for New Mexico to humanely end the regime of the overmatched Locksley are getting louder and louder in Albuquerque. Even with the Ducks sitting on the lead in the second half, New Mexico could not do any damage, barely reaching the 100-yard mark in the fiasco at Eugene. Things might not get any better this weekend when the Lobos host potent Texas Tech at University Stadium, and one has to wonder if Locksley will even be able to finish the month, much less the season, if New Mexico continues to absorb such beatings. Who would have ever thought the Lobo fans would be wishing for a return to the days of Rocky Long coaching the team?
UCLA (Saturday, vs. Stanford)...We’re getting close to panic time in Westwood, where the Bruins are staring down the barrel of an 0-4 September unless they can turn things around quickly. But that is no guarantee, with ascending Stanford a solid betting favorite Saturday at the Rose Bowl, with omnipotent Houston and highly-ranked Texas next in the queue. Unfortunately for HC Rick Neuheisel, the Bruins are getting hit with a spate of injuries while their season threatens to unravel, with OL woes hampering the forward wall while QB Kevin Prince (just 9 of 26 in the opener at Kansas State) now must have to deal with a sore shoulder on top of the balky balk that limited his number of reps in fall camp. At some point very soon, Neuheisel could begin to feel some real heat, although Pac-10 sources believe "Slick Rick" likely has at least through 2011 to get the Bruin ship turned in the right direction, barring a disastrous 2-10 or 3-9-type season in 2010.
COLORADO STATE (Saturday, at Nevada)...The bottom fell out of the Rams’ campaign after a quick break from the gate last season, as CSU closed 2009 with 9 straight defeats and a last place finish (behind even new Mexico) in the Mountain West. Now the Rams’ losing streak has mushroomed to 10 straight (including 7 straight losses vs. the number) after an ugly 24-3 opening-week loss vs. hated Colorado at Denver. The Ram offense, which bogged down as 2009 progressed, still looks to have a long way to go with true frosh QB Pete Thomas learning on the job, and apt to suffer more 3-interception efforts such as he did last week vs. the Buffs. A trip to revenge minded and explosive Nevada could be painful this week, and if the Rams can’t get a win in their subsequent two games vs. Miami-Ohio and Idaho, only a visit from Mike Locksley’s New Mexico Lobos (assuming Locksley is still on the job) might stand in the way of the first big donut in Fort Collins since noted taskmaster Sark Arslanian and Chester Caddas (who succeeded Arslanian after 6 games) combined for an 0-12 Rams mark in 1981.