Fade These Favorites
By: Matt Baiungo
Matty B’s Coaching Blitz:
Missouri showed a lot of patience with Gary Pinkel. He was hired as the head coach going into the 2001 season. From 2001 through 2006, the Tigers went just 37-35. A win – loss record like that isn’t really tolerated in this modern era of “win now” college football. But the Missouri brass kept Pinkel around, and their faith in him paid off in spades as Pinkel’s team has gone 25-6 since 2007. Because of that, Missouri rewarded Pinkel with a new seven-year contract worth a whopping $2.3 million per year. Not too shabby of a paycheck for a coach who has only won more than 8 games twice over his 9-year tenure.
With Pinkel’s history out of the way, let’s show you how we can make some money by betting against his teams. Missouri figured to be down this season (3-0 so far) after losing their three best offensive players to the NFL; QB Chase Daniel, WR Jeremy Maclin, and TE Chase Coffman. Missouri also lost two defensive linemen to the NFL. That’s a ton of talent for any team to lose, let alone a team that won 22 games in 2007 and 2008 after only winning a total of 15 in their freshman and sophomore years.
Before the above quintet arrived in Columbia, Pinkel’s teams were not good against the spread when laying points on the road. In fact, from 2001 to 2004, Missouri went 2-5 straight-up and 1-5-1 against the spread as a road favorite. When Chase Daniel and the crew arrived in 2005, Missouri still struggled in the road favorite’s role by going just 1-4 against the spread while going 2-3 straight-up. But as the group matured in their junior and senior years, their losing ways were gone and they were almost perfect with a 5-1 mark to the spread while going 6-0 on the highway as a favorite.
So if we combine Gary Pinkel’s record as a road favorite while at Missouri, it shows a very misleading and unassuming 10-8 straight-up and 7-10-1 against the spread. But when we dig deeper and eliminate the numbers put-up by Missouri’s best players and team over the last two seasons, we come out with a money-making coaching spread pattern that shows Gary Pinkel at just 2-9-1 against the spread in the role of a road favorite. That’s a solid 81.8% play against Pinkel. On Friday night, Missouri is laying a touchdown at Nevada, a team they beat by 52 points (69-17) last year. Think twice before laying the points with Mizzou.
Matty B’s NFL Turnover Turnarounds:
In the NFL, the team that wins the turnover battle covers the spread at an astronomical rate, something like over 90%. But turnovers are random, and it’s impossible to predict them. If you could somehow accurately predict them, then you would be one very rich man sitting on your own island. However, there is no secret formula or some super system out there to predict turnovers in a game. It simply will never happen, but there is a way in which you can take turnovers and use them to make a profit.
Fumbles and interceptions happen in every game, so there’s nothing drastic seeing a team have 2 or 3 of them in a game. But when that number increases to 4 or 5, that team has virtually no chance to win and basically hands the game to their opponent. And here’s where we can take advantage of that winning team’s extreme good fortune.
When a team comes off a game in which they had a + 4, + 5, or higher turnover margin, they are a good bet-against in their next game. It’s a rare occurrence as it only happened in 44 games over the last two seasons. So let’s take a look at the results in those games:
NFL teams off a + 4, + 5, or higher turnover margin game have gone 22-20 straight-up and 15-27 against the spread in their next game over the last two years. We also see slightly higher scoring in those games as well with the over checking in at 23-19.
Favorites in this role have gone 17-12 straight-up, but a dismal 10-19 against the spread. So what we want to do is play-against any NFL team that is off a game in which they were + 4 or higher in turnover margin. Playing against these teams has cashed at a 64.3% clip since 2007. Playing against these teams when they are favored yields a 65.5% winning strategy over the same time frame.
We didn’t include these numbers above, but there have already been 3 games in 2009 where you could have taken advantage of this NFL turnover strategy. The Eagles, Falcons, and Packers all were a play-against last week after winning their opening week games with a + 4 or higher turnover margin. You would have gone 2-1 against the spread after the Saints crushed the Eagles 48-22 and the Bengals beat the Packers outright 31-24 as 9-point underdogs. The Panthers came up short losing 28-20 while getting 6 points from the Falcons. Also note that all three games went over the total rather easily.
There is one qualifying play this week. The Giants beat the Cowboys on Sunday night thanks to a + 4 turnover margin. The G-Men are laying over a touchdown in Tampa Bay on Sunday. Be careful if you like the road favorite in this spot because the above strategy tells you to take the Bucs and the points.