Falcons hope to buck trends
By Brian Edwards
There’s a first time for everything, right? That’s certainly what Atlanta Falcons fans are thinking going into the 2009 campaign. You see, the Falcons have never posted back-to-back winning seasons in the franchise’s wretched history.
But that’s about to change according to veteran VegasInsider.com handicapper Mark Franco, who is extremely bullish on Mike Smith’s squad.
“When it comes to season win totals, I rarely play ‘overs’ because there are just too many things that can go wrong in terms of injuries,” Franco said on a recent edition of the Power Hours on VI Radio. “But I’m definitely playing the Falcons ‘over’ this year. I just love Matt Ryan and really feel like the trade for Tony Gonzalez gave this team that final piece to the puzzle, at least on the offensive side of the ball.”
Sportsbook.com currently has Atlanta’s season win total at 8 ½ ‘over’ (minus-125). The offshore website has the Falcons and Saints as the plus-175 co-favorites to win the NFC South. Atlanta’s odds to win the Super Bowl are 30/1.
“I have already bought my ticket for the Falcons to win the Super Bowl at 30/1 odds at the Hilton,” Franco added. “It’s a small wager but with a lot of value. I think Roddy White is going to follow up on his breakout season and be a Pro-Bowler this year. I like what they did in the draft with their focus on a defense that was a little suspect last season.”
Franco continued, “The schedule is somewhat difficult. There are three really tough non-division road games at New England, at Dallas and at the Giants.”
Atlanta will open up with a pair of home games against the Dolphins and Panthers at the Georgia Dome. Most books are listing the Falcons as four-point favorites against Miami with the total in the 42-43 range.
In recent seasons when the Falcons had chances to get to the playoffs in consecutive seasons, something always goes wrong. Coming off a playoff win at Green Bay, expectations were high in 2003. However, star QB Michael Vick broke his leg in a pre-season game against the Ravens.
In 2005, one year removed from going to the NFC Championship Game before losing to the Eagles, Atlanta won five of its first seven games. But Jim Mora lost his team in the ensuing weeks as the team lost seven of nine and the head coach was sent packing.
What will go wrong this time around? Possibly the defense, which has had a lot of turnover since the playoff loss to the Cardinals. Gone are veterans Lawyer Milloy, Keith Brooking, Michael Boley and Domonique Foxworth. Brooking, who signed with Dallas, was the last remaining link to the ’98 team that made the franchise’s only appearance at the Super Bowl.
Jacksonville LB Mike Peterson, who fell out of favor with Jack Del Rio in 2008, was signed to replace Brooking. Peterson knows Smith’s system from the head coach’s days as defensive coordinator for the Jags.
I loved Atlanta’s first-round pick, All-SEC defensive tackle Peria Jerry from out of Ole Miss. Jerry is a playmaker who should start from the get-go. Missouri’s William Moore was the team’s second-round selection and he might also start as a rookie.
Smith limited the snaps for DE John Abraham last season and the maneuver paid huge dividends. Abraham was able to stay healthy all year and made more plays thanks to always being fresh.
As a rookie, LB Curtis Lofton more than held his own. The Falcons are hoping he becomes the next Jessie Tuggle.
The offense appears to be in good hands for the next decade with Ryan coming off an extremely impressive rookie campaign. He has a go-to wideout in Roddy White who always seems to be open and should thrive even more with Gonzalez’s presence over the middle of the field.
Michael Turner proved to be the best free-agent signing in the entire league in 2008. “The Burner” appears poised for another monster year and Jerious Norwood is a dynamic playmaker, especially for a back-up RB.
History tells us something will go wrong in Atlanta, but maybe this is the year that this moribund franchise takes a significant step and enters uncharted waters with a second straight winning season and playoff berth. We shall see.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--Athlon’s 2009 Pro Football Preview magazine has the Falcons finishing first in the NFC South and third in the NFC. The publication predicts an Atlanta win over the Saints in the wild-card round, but it has the Falcons being eliminated at Arizona (again).
--Five Best Players:
1-Roddy White (WR)
2-Michael Turner (RB)
3-John Abraham (DE)
4-Tony Gonzalez (TE)
5-Matt Ryan (QB)
--Most underrated player: RB Jerious Norwood.
--Atlanta’s open date falls in Week 4 between a pair of road games at New England and at San Francisco.
--The Falcons get four of their last six regular-season games at home, but they close the regular season at Tampa Bay.
vegasinsider.com