Favorites overpriced on Saturday Arena slate?
By Steve Makinen
Most teams are 10 games into the 2010 Arena Football season and chances are you haven’t been keeping as close of tabs on the betting action as you maybe should. Every week presents great opportunities and this week is no different, as several key pieces of FoxSheets information suggest there could be some line mistakes. One of them might be in the highlight game of the week, as Milwaukee visits Chicago, with the Midwest Division lead on the line.
The Milwaukee Iron pounded the Rush at home, 71-48, back in May, but surprisingly, the visitors were the 1.5-point favorites in that contest. Milwaukee is the road favorite this time around, having opened as a 2-point dog only to be bet way up to 3-point chalk. That line movement was not surprising considering the Rush will be without starting quarterback Russ Michna and leading receiver Samie Parker, as both will miss the game to attend a three-day mini-camp for the Las Vegas Locomotives of the United Football League. Michna will be replaced in the starting lineup by backup quarterback J.J. Raterink, who will be making his first career start.
Even still, perhaps bettors aren’t giving enough consideration to what has been very shaky play on the road all season by the Iron. They are just 1-3 away while yielding an ugly 65.7 PPG. Chicago has been much better defensively in 2010 as well, giving up just 52.9 PPG, 4th best in the league. According to FoxSheets, Milwaukee’s suspect defense could present a strong home dog opportunity:
# Play Against - Favorites (MILWAUKEE) - with a terrible defense - allowing 6.7 or more yards/play, after gaining 7 or more yards/play in their previous game. (69-35 over the last 10 seasons.) (66.3%, +30.5 units. Rating = 2*)
Incidentally, in the latest Arena Football Writers Association Power Poll, Milwaukee is ranked third, having received one first place vote, which Chicago checks in at #5.
There are two other games involving red-hot teams that might catch your eye on Saturday in the Arena Football League as well, as both seems to have gained the attention of oddsmakers, perhaps to the point where they are now being overvalued. In one of them, Tampa Bay, who has won four straight games, will be visiting Utah. The Storm are listed as 18-point road favorites, despite the fact that they are gauged as just the 6th best team in the AFLWA poll. They are also not one of the league’s big scoring clubs, averaging 55.4 PPG, only 9th best. However, this line could be built more against Utah and less behind Tampa. The Blaze have been downright awful in 2010, being outscored by 19.8 PPG while going -8. That said, Utah has turned the ball over 17 times in the last four games, and an improvement on that number could certainly make them more competitive on Saturday.
This game also boasts a nice FoxSheets system:
# Play Against - Any team (TAMPA BAY) - after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team. (124-74 since 1996.) (62.6%, +42.6 units. Rating = 2*)
The StatFox Power Line indicates the pointspread in this contest should only be Tampa Bay by 14.
The final game we want to look at finds Arizona, winners of its last four games, hosting Bossier-Shreveport. The Rattlers have reach ed a season-high 4th on the power poll, and at 6-3 trailed Spokane by a game in the West Division heading into Friday’s action. Arizona is a 9.5-point favorite, its biggest chalk line of the season by nearly 3-points. The Rattlers’ 4-game winning streak has a lot to do with that. However, AFL betting history suggests the value lies with the road dogs in this case:
# Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (BOSSIER-SHREVEPORT) - in June games. (72-33 since 1996.) (68.6%, +35.7 units. Rating = 3*)
Three games, three favorites that seem to be getting embraced by both public bettors and oddsmakers. Usually that pattern doesn’t last too long, especially when you can actually see the difference in the line. It will be interesting to see how the three underdogs in this over-priced games come to play.