Fear the Sweater Vest

Fear the Sweater Vest
By Judd Hall

The Big Ten Conference might be one of the big power conferences in college football, but you wouldn’t know it by the treatment it gets in the media. A lot of that ill will is not only directed towards the quality of play in the league, but what the teams have done on the sport’s grandest stage.

No league that is a member of the Bowl Championship Series has more appearances than the 19 that the Big Ten can lay claim to right now. Yet they are a combined 8-11 in those games at the moment.

America’s favorite punching bag for the league has been Ohio State. It’s hard not to want to grab some rotten fruit and throw it at the Buckeyes for their recent performances in the BCS. Jim Tressel’s crew was the toast of the town when they won their first four BSC bowl games, but it has all gone downhill for them after getting waxed by Florida in the 2007 national title game. Now OSU has lost three straight BCS games, two of them for a national championship.

It all can’t be the Buckeyes fault though. During the last three seasons, the Big Ten is 0-6 in BCS bowl games.

Despite the shortcomings on the national level, our panel of experts believe that the Buckeyes are still the team to beat in the Big Ten.

Ohio State’s success will start where it almost always has during Tressel’s tenure in Columbus, the defense. The Bucks return eight starters on the stopping unit, three of which will be anchoring the front line. This group ranked 14th in the nation in total defense by giving up 293.8 yards per game.

What could prove problematic is losing linebackers like James Laurinaitis and Marcus Freeman from last year. That inexperienced second level will be baptized by fire when facing off against the option attack of Navy to open the season and hosting Southern Cal at the Horseshoe on Sept. 12. After those tests, I believe the schedule sets up nicely for OSU to win the Big Ten…and maybe a shot at the national title.

Chris David believes the Buckeyes have the goods to still run strong on offense thanks to something that many might have overlooked. “Not many people would know but Ohio State was tied for No. 1 nationally in red zone efficiency (95 percent) last season. The problem for them was getting inside the 20. If Terrelle Pryor improves, then expect the team to exceed the 27.7 points per game they averaged last year.”

There is reason for optimism with Pryor being the full time starter for the entire season under center. What could pose a problem is that Beanie Wells, Brian Robiskie and Brian Hartline are all playing on Sundays now. That is a lot of talent to lose in the skill positions, but they do have a strong offensive line to utilize at the start of the season.

The problem that has always plagued the Big Ten is it normally a battle of two teams (usually the Buckeyes and Wolverines) at the top, while the rest jockey for third place. That most likely will happen again this season, but there are some teams out there that could come out of nowhere.

Kevin Rogers believes that the Golden Gophers are ready to get some attention on the national level in 2009. “The Gophers improved from one win to seven victories in Tim Brewster’s second season. Minnesota was a solid ATS play off of a straight up win last season, going 5-1against the spread in that spot.” Rogers concluded, “Minnesota does have a rough two-week stretch in mid-October, travelling to Penn State and Ohio State. Besides that, they return nine starters on offense, including QB Adam Weber. This program has a great opportunity to win eight or nine games this season, and get themselves into a New Year’s Day bowl game.”

Minnesota certainly has the pieces that could make them dangerous during league play. I believe they’re going to win at least one of those games between the Bucks and Nittany Lions during that rough patch. What is going to be interesting to see is how the Golden Gophers handle playing at the brand new TCF Bank Stadium. This team had played at the Metrodome for the last 26 years. It’s going to be interesting to see how they handle playing in an open-air stadium for their home dates this season.

There is also a real possibility that we could see a return to dominance of a perennial power in Ann Arbor under Rich Rodriguez. Chris David explains, “Rodriguez went from 3-8 to 9-4 in his second year at West Virginia and he has the potential to do the same in Ann Arbor, if the ball bounces his way. It’s a big if, but Michigan coughed up the ball 30 times last year, which was tied for 104th nationally. One the attack gets a stable player under center, opponents might not be ready for the Wolverines. The defense didn’t have many highlights in 2008, yet most would expect an improvement under new coordinator Greg Robinson. The first four games of the year are at home, and three appear to be very winnable. How they respond off losses will determine their final outcome but doubling last year’s win total should be easy.”

Brian Edwards believes that the Spartans are ready to make that jump back to the top of the heap. “I like what I’ve seen from Michigan State in the first two years of Mark Dantonio’s tenure. The Spartans must replace workhorse running back Javon Ringer, but most of the nucleus of this squad returns intact. Michigan State doesn’t have to play Ohio State and gets Penn State at home in the regular season finale. Watch out for them.”

Penn State has been picked as one of the favorites to win the Big Ten, but Chris David doesn’t buy what the media is selling. “It’s hard for me to root against PSU and I don’t believe it’s going to finish 5-7 or 6-6 but no way will this team win the Big 10 or go unbeaten like some pundits have stated. Sure the schedule isn’t tough – on paper – but this squad has lost some key components. The offensive line is raw, plus they must retool the entire receiving corps, who made Daryll Clark look better than he is. Defensively, the secondary is decimated and even though Sean Lee returns, they need to replace their best pass rusher Aaron Maybin (NFL) and arguably their best overall linebacker, Mike Mauti (injury).”

Another team to avoid like the Black Death is the Boilermakers. Purdue may run a spread offense, but still only ranked seventh in scoring last year in the Big Ten in Joe Tiller’s last go round as head coach. Now new head coach Danny Hope has to deal with the fact that he has no Curtis Painter, Kory Sheets, Greg Orton and Desmond Tardy. So Hope will be running the exact same mediocre offense with none of the key ingredients that had great numbers last season.

Defensively, Purdue doesn’t have the look of a unit that will improve on being 61st in the nation in total defense (358.1 yards per game) in 2009. Don’t be surprised if this team doesn’t enter league play with a 1-3 mark this year.

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