Matt Foust
Baylor @ U Connecticut Over 50.5
The Baylor Bears will travel to Storrs, Connecticut this week for a Friday night, stand alone tilt with the Connecticut Huskies. We are going to go with over 50.5 for this ESPN 2 national game.
The Baylor Bears were anything but a prolific offensive team in 2007, averaging 18.2 points per game. Head Coach Art Briles no doubt made the offense a big priority in the off season as he headed into his first season at Baylor. So far the results would indicate that to be true. The Bears have averaged 36.33 points per game thus far in 2008; the only game that they did not break 20 was their opener against Wake Forest. Baylor also had five turnovers in that game which limited their ability to put points on the board.
True freshmen quarterback Robert Griffin has added a different dimension to the offense this season and he will certainly put the Huskies defense on notice. Last week against Washington State Griffin threw for 129 yards and rushed 11 times for 217 yards and two touchdowns.
Connecticut is averaging 30.67 points per game this season and they have rushed for an average of 297.7 per game. Last week, against Virginia, the Huskies posted 45 points, ran for 382 yards, and collected 25 first downs. They have a deep and talented group of running backs and a veteran quarterback in senior Tyler Lorenzen.
Connecticut has the better defense in this contest, but Baylor will be able to move the ball against them. The Huskies defensive line is very good but Griffin’s mobility will give them some trouble and his ability to run or pass will help Baylor keep the chains moving. While Baylor won the game on the ground versus Washington State, they still averaged 8.1 yards per pass and they have great speed at receiver as well as big play capability in David Gettis. The Huskies, on the other hand, will be able to run against Baylor’s front. Last week the Bears throttled Washington State’s rushing attack, but they will have a much more difficult time trying to stop Uconn. Look for the scoring to start early and happen often.
Pick: Take the OVER 50.5
Sports Advisors
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Baylor (2-1, 1-1 ATS) at Connecticut (3-0, 1-1 ATS)
Baylor looks to build off a blowout home win over Washington State when it travels to the Northeast to battle unbeaten Connecticut in a nationally televised non-conference affair.
With Hurricane Ike bearing down on Texas, Baylor was forced to move last week’s home game against Washington State from Saturday to Friday, but the home team was hardly affected, rolling to a 45-17 win as a three-point chalk. The Bears rushed for a staggering 426 yards, while the defense held the Cougars to just 77 yards on the ground and forced five turnovers. For the season, Baylor is averaging 36.3 points, 242.3 rushing yards and 205 passing yards per contest.
The Huskies are also coming off an impressive rushing performance, outgaining Virginia 382-31 on the ground en route to Saturday’s 45-10 rout, easily cashing as a 10½-point home favorite. Through three games, UConn is averaging 30.7 points and 445 yards per game (297.7 rushing ypg), while holding the opposition to 7.3 points and 229 total ypg (66.3 rushing ypg).
Baylor has followed a nine-game losing skid with consecutive victories, including a 51-6 rout of Division I-AA Northwestern State 51-6 two weeks ago. Despite last week’s easy spread-cover against Washington State, though, the Bears are just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 contests overall, 2-7 ATS in their last nine on the road, 3-14 ATS in their last 17 against winning teams and 9-24 ATS in their last 33 following a spread-cover.
Additionally, Baylor has lost six straight road games to BCS conference schools (2-4 ATS), and new coach Art Briles’ team is 1-6 (2-5 ATS) in its last seven road openers.
UConn carries a nine-game home winning streak into this contest, going 6-0 ATS in the last six. Additionally, the Huskies are on pointspread tears of 14-7 as a home favorite, 18-7-1 as a favorite regardless of venue since 2003 and 28-12-1 in non-conference action. On the downside, UConn has failed to cover in four straight games against winning teams.
For Baylor, the over is on streaks of 4-0 in non-conference games (2-0 this year) and 8-2 on the road. On the flip side, UConn sports under streaks of 7-3 overall, 13-5 in non-conference play, 5-2 on grass and 6-2 against winning squads.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CONNECTICUT
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Philadelphia (86-67) at Florida (80-72)
The two hottest teams in the National League kick off a three-game series at Dolphin Stadium, with the Phillies’ Brett Myers (10-11, 4.06 ERA) set to take the mound opposite the Marlins’ Josh Johnson (4-1, 3.30).
Philadelphia arrives in South Beach riding a seven-game winning streak after completing a three-game sweep in Atlanta with Thursday’s 4-3 victory. The Phillies, who lead the N.L. East by a half-game over the Mets and 5½ games over the Marlins, are on additional positive runs of 4-1 on the road, 18-8 on Fridays, 48-22 in series openers, 5-1 behind Myers overall and 4-1 with Myers working on the road.
Florida ran its major-league-best winning streak to eight in a row with an 8-1 home rout of the Astros on Thursday, yet the Fish still trail the Mets by five games in the wild-card race. During their eight-game winning streak, the Marlins are 6-0 at home, 5-0 against the N.L. East and 7-0 against right-handed starters.
Florida leads the season series against Philadelphia 9-6, winning six of the last eight meetings overall and six of the last eight at home.
Myers pitched a complete-game, two-hitter on Sunday at home, beating the Brewers 6-1. The veteran righthander has produced 10 quality starts in 11 outings since the All-Star break, with the Phillies going 8-3 during this stretch. However, Myers is just 3-7 with a 5.46 ERA in 15 road starts in 2007.
Johnson is coming off his eighth straight quality start, a 4-2 home victory over Washington as he gave up just two runs on six hits with nine strikeouts in six innings. The Marlins are 9-3 in the right-hander’s 12 starts this season and 7-0 in his last seven versus divisional rivals. At home this year, Johnson is 2-0 with a 4.02 ERA in five starts, four of which Florida has won.
Myers has enjoyed very little success against the Marlins in his career, going 6-9 with a 5.04 ERA. In fact, going back to 2006, the Phillies are 1-6 when Myers faces Florida, including 0-4 in Miami. Meanwhile, Johnson is 2-1 with a 3.62 ERA in six games (four starts) against Philadelphia, including 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA in two starts this year (both Florida victories).
The under is 8-1-1 in Myers’ last 10 starts overall, 4-0-1 in his last five on the road, 6-3 in his last nine against Florida and 5-0 in Johnson’s last five trips to the hill. The under is also on runs of 15-8-2 for the Marlins overall, 14-7-1 for the Marlins at home, 7-1-2 for the Marlins on Fridays, 2-0 for Philly overall and 5-0 for the Phillies on Fridays. Finally, the under is 5-1 in the six meetings between these teams in Florida this year.
ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Minnesota (83-70) at Tampa Bay (90-61)
The Twins, who are fighting for their playoff lives, go for back-to-back upset wins at Tropicana Field when they send rookie Nick Blackburn (10-9, 3.89) to the mound, while the Rays counter with Edwin Jackson (11-11, 4.33).
Minnesota snapped an untimely four-game slide with an 11-8 victory at Tampa Bay in last night’s series opener to move within 1½ games of the first-place White Sox in the A.L. Central. The Twins, who play their home games in a dome, are 31-13 in their last 44 games on artificial turf and 18-5 in their last 23 on Friday. However, they’re still mired in slumps of 5-12 against the A.L. East and 5-9 versus right-handed starters.
Despite Thursday’s setback, the Rays still lead the Red Sox by 1½ games in the A.L. East. They’re also on runs of 51-16 at home, 18-5 on Fridays and 22-10 against righty starters.
Minnesota has owned the Rays in recent years, winning 32 of the last 43 meetings overall (2-1 this year), including 12 of the last 17 in Tampa Bay.
Blackburn is coming off his worst outing since the end of June, allowing six runs on nine hits in four innings in Sunday’s 7-3 loss at Baltimore. The Twins are 1-6 in the right-hander’s last seven starts overall, including four straight losses on the road. In fact, Minnesota is just 5-12 when Blackburn toils on foreign turf this year, with the pitcher going 3-6 with a 4.72 ERA in those 17 outings.
Jackson is 0-3 with a 10.95 ERA in his last three trips the bump, and like Blackburn, he gave up six runs in his most recent start, lasting just two innings in Sunday’s 8-4 loss at the Yankees. At home this year, the right-hander is just 5-6 with a 4.83 ERA.
Blackburn has never faced the Rays in his young career, while Jackson is 0-2 with a horrid 18.90 ERA in five career appearances (two starts) against the Twins, allowing 17 runs (14 earned) in 6 2/3 innings.
For the Twins, the over is on runs of 12-4-1 overall, 9-2 on the road, 6-1 against the A.L. East, 4-0 on Friday, 5-0 when Blackburn faces a winning club and 4-1 when Blackburn faces the A.L. East. For Tampa Bay, the over is on runs of 5-1 overall, 9-1 at home, 10-2 on artificial turf, 5-1 versus the A.L. Central and 4-1 when Jackson pitches at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Brad Diamond Sports
Play on: Pittsburgh over Houston
Going into Thursday the Houston Astros are 0-4 since the Ike disaster hit the state of Texas. In addition, Pittsburgh is 5 of 6 with RHP Snell on the hill versus the deflated visitor. So, there is a solid lean to the Bucs tonight. Finally, in others games, there appears to be no reason for the Nationals (“the dark side of the force”) to be emotionally invested versus the Padres who insert Jake Peavy on the hill. Take the Padres. Lastly, one game that could be a major trap is the Dodgers and Giants battle. With lefty Barry Zito hurling for the Giants you can fully expect the public (check the prohibitive line) to back the Dodgers. However, having the chance to catch the LA and Pittsburgh encounter Thursday, it was noted that Joe Torre is starting to rest certain players without much advance warning, if you catch my inference.
Jimmy The Moose
Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics
Prediction: Oakland Athletics
The Mariners players and organization are counting down the days until this horrible season ends. Seattle is 20-44 in their last 64 road games. In their last 13 road games vs. a left-handed starter they are 4-9. Seattle comes into this one having lst 8 straight. The Mariners have dropped Hernandez's last 3 starts. Oakland has won 4 of their last 5 games. The A's are 9-3 in their last 12 games opening up a series. The A's have won 7 of their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The A's have won 4 of Eveland's last 5 starts. They are 5-1 in his last 6 home starts. Play on the Oakland A's -.
Winning Points Weekend Series
Houston at Pittsburgh (3) 19th, 20th, 21st
The Astros are the big story in baseball right now (80-67, +$2565) and a trip to PNC Park to take on the pitching poor Pirates (5.20 team ERA, worst in the NL) could not be coming at a better time. Houston’s starting pitching has been spectacular (1.79 ERA last 10 days), so they should take at least 2 out of 3. BEST BET: Astros in all games.
Philadelphia at Florida (3) 19th, 20th, 21st
The Marlins have made life miserable for the Phillies in 2008 (9-6, +$715 in head to head play) and they have a pair of starters in Josh Johnson (+$705, 3.30) and Brian Nolasco (+$1560, 3.67) who are both likely to see action this weekend. The Phillies have lost money vs. righthanders this season (-$810). BEST BET: Jo. Johnson/Nolasco.
Milwaukee at Cincinnati (3) 19th, 20th, 21st
The Brewers are floundering down the stretch once again (3-7, -$715 last 10 days with only 2.7 runs per game) and they are now in serious danger of blowing the wildcard. They’ve lost money to the Reds in head to head play (-$295) and their lefthanders could run into trouble here at Great American Ballpark, taking on a Cincinnati tram that has turned a profit at home against southpaws (+$450 with 5.4 runs per game). BEST BET: Reds vs. lefthanders.
N.Y. Mets at Atlanta (3) 19th, 20th, 21st
The Braves have been playing a bit better in recent days (6-4, +$305 last 10 days) and they could pose a problem to a New York team that has lost money in night games vs. righthanders (-$1260). Atlanta also holds an edge in head to head play with the Mets (9-6, +$590). BEST BET: Righthanders vs. the Mets in night games.
Chicago W. Sox at Kansas City (3) 19th, 20th, 21st
The White Sox have dominated the Royals in in head to head play (10-5, +$340) but we’ve cashed a number of tickets in the 2nd half with Kansas City vs. lefthanders (+$1780) in that situation). The Chicago rotation features a number of southpaws, at least one or two of whom should see action. BEST BET: Royals vs. lefthanders.
Marc Lawrence
Houston Astros @ Pittsburgh Pirates
PICK: Houston Astros
The Houston Astros look to get back on the winning track and back into the NL Wild Card race when they send Randy Wolf to the mound against the Pirates in Pittsburgh tonight.
Wolf has come up big for the Astros since coming over to Houston in late July, cashing 8 of his 10 team starts. With the Pirates 5-13 on Fridays, including 1-5 their last 6 at home on Fridays, look for Wolf to improve to 9-1 in his career team starts against Pittsburgh tonight.
We recommend a 1-unit play on Houston with Wolf.
Scott Ferrall
TORONTO -135 over Boston--AJ Burnett is too tough right now for Paul Byrd
Pavano -200 and the Yankees over Baltimore in the Boogie Down Bronx
Dodgers -185 over Giants--Zito isn't beating LA in the Revine--take Maddux and the BLUE bats
Arizona +105 at Colorado--D'Backs need it more--can't afford to lose right now with so few games left
Mets -145 at Turner Field over the Braves and Mike Hampton--Oly Perez is the choice
Milwaukee -125 at Cincy--Brewers have to win-simple as that
DUNKEL
Houston at Pittsburgh
The Astros bring a five-game losing streak into Pittsburgh to face a Pirates team that is 17-12 as a home underdog between +100 and +120. The Pirates are the underdog pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has Pittsburgh favored straight up by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+115). Here are all of today's games
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 19
Game 951-952: St. Louis at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 14.261; Cubs (Zambrano) 13.711
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-175); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+165); N/A
Game 953-954: Houston at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Wolf) 14.481; Pittsburgh (Snell) 16.140
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+115); Over
Game 955-956: Philadelphia at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Myers) 16.505; Florida (Johnson) 17.864
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+135); Over
Game 957-958: Milwaukee at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Suppan) 15.369; Cincinnati (Ramirez) 14.267
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 8
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 959-960: San Diego at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Peavy) 15.008; Washington (Balester) 13.460
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-140); Over
Game 961-962: NY Mets at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Perez) 16.808; Atlanta (Reyes) 15.302
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-150); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-150); Under
Game 963-964: Arizona at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Scherzer) 15.357; Colorado (De La Rosa) 14.405
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Colorado (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+110); Under
Game 965-966: San Francisco at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Zito) 14.612; LA Dodgers (Maddux) 16.890
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-185); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-185); Over
Game 967-968: Baltimore at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Liz) 14.964; NY Yankees (Pavano) 17.896
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 3; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-200); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-200); Over
Game 969-970: Boston at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Byrd) 17.137; Toronto (Burnett) 16.026
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston(+125); Under
Game 971-972: Detroit at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Galarraga) 13.943; Cleveland (Carmona) 15.464
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+105); Under
Game 973-974: Minnesota at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Blackburn) 16.010; Tampa Bay (Jackson) 14.737
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+125); Under
Game 975-976: LA Angels at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Garland) 14.966; Texas (Harrison) 15.397
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Texas (-115); 11
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-115); Under
Game 977-978: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Buehrle) 16.335; Kansas City (Bannister) 15.481
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-145); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-145); Under
Game 979-980: Seattle at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 15.073; Oakland (Eveland) 14.933
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+115); Over
NCAAF
Game 305-306: Baylor at Connecticut
Dunkel Ratings: Baylor 82.159; Connecticut 92.236
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 10; 48
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 13; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baylor (+13); Under
Bobby Maxwell
Philadelphia -135 at FLORIDA
The Phillies are riding high as they bring a seven-game winning streak to South Florida and lead the N.L. East by a half game over the Mets and by 5 1/2 games over the Marlins.
This series is Florida's chance to immediately get back into the race. But the young Marlins need a sweep to get back in and it's just not going to happen, especially against this red-hot team right now. The Phillies are on streaks of 4-1 on the road, 18-8 on Fridays, 48-22 in series openers, 5-1 when Brett Myers pitches and 4-1 when he pitches on the road.
Florida has won eight straight games but that will come to a close tonight when the Phillies get it done. Myers has been almost untouchable lately, throwing a complete-game two-hitter on Sunday at home, beating the Brewers 6-1. He has produced 10 quality starts in his last 11 outings and the Phillies are 8-3 in those 11 games.
This whole team is red-hot right now. And in this battle of winning streaks, we think Philadelphia is bringing more ammunition to the showdown. Play the Phillies.
2♦ PHILADELPHIA
Black Widow Sports
1* on Seattle Mariners +112
Seattle Ace Felix Hernandez is quietly having a very good season for the Mariners. He has a 3.42 ERA on the year and a 3.08 ERA in all road starts. With more run support, he would have a lot more than his 9 wins on the season. But Hernandez won’t need much run support against the Oakland A’s Friday to pick up the win. That’s because Hernandez is 7-3 with a 2.59 ERA in 11 career starts facing the A’s. Hernandez is 12-3 (+12.4 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons. He plays the role of the underdog very well as you can see. Take Seattle on the Money Line Friday.
Info Plays
3* on Minnesota Twins +120
Minnesota is coming off of a huge win where they can back from two runs down in the ninth inning to beat the Rays last night. We feel the Twins will build off of this momentum and beat Tampa again Friday. The Twins are 26-14 vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. Nick Blackburn will have his way with this Rays’ lineup. Blackburn brings a 3.89 ERA into play Friday. Edwin Jackson has really struggled against Minnesota. Jackson is 0-2 with a monstrous 16.63 ERA in two career starts against the Twins. Bet Minnesota on the road.
Black Magic Sports
1 Unit on New York Mets -136
The Mets seem to be stepping up to the plate much better this season, with Jose Reyes, Carlos Delgado and Carlos Beltran leading the way. Jerry Manuel has a great, relaxed attitude as their manager and this is helping the team to relax more down the stretch in ‘08. The Mets turn to Oliver Perez, who is 6-4 with a 3.39 ERA in 13 lifetime starts against Atlanta. Perez is a big-game pitcher who can handle the pressure. Jo-Jo Reyes has not fared so well against the Mets, losing both of his starts against New York this year with a 6.75 ERA to boot. Atlanta is 0-8 in home games vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game in the second half of the season this season. Cash in with the Mets as the favorite.
Great Lakers Sports
New York Mets at Washington
Play on: New York Mets with Perez
The New York Mets has a very solid 85-67 record this years, and is a strong 38-28 vs division opponents this year. The New York Mets is also 85-67 when playing on grass this year, and they are 24-12 when playing a team with a losing record the second half of the season. We look for the New York Mets to roll over the Washington Nationals in this National League Divisional showdown for the road win tonight.
Jim Feist
BOS Red Sox @ TOR Blue Jays
Play: TOR Blue Jays
When Paul Byrd joined the Red Sox last month, he met with pitching coach John Farrell and admitted to a little problem: He has a habit of tipping his pitches. "I told him to be conscious of it," said Byrd, confirming that he tipped some of his pitches in his last start against the Blue Jays in the first game of last Saturday.5?s doubleheader at Fenway Park. Byrd lasted only five-plus innings, allowing five runs in an 8-1 loss. He will face the Blue Jays again here, making it five of his last eight starts against the Jays, so they know him well. Byrd's ERA is 4.94 against the Jays this season. Toronto is motivated, as they are playing hard to bring back likeable manager Cito Gaston. The Jays showed more fight, trailing the Orioles 6-0 after 4 1/2 innings before rallying for another win. Toronto ace A.J. Burnett is 18-10 with 214 Ks in 206 innings. He's owned teh Red Sox, at 5-0 with a 2.37 ERA against them. Play the Blue Jays.
Dave Cokin
SD Padres @ WAS Nationals
Take WAS Nationals
Jake Peavy is a great pitcher, but he's on one awful baseball team. The Padres have no business laying even a moderate price on the road to anyone, even with Peavy on the mound. Washington played the Mets very hard, and could be a bit down off that exciting series. But with the rookie Balester pitching pretty well and the Padres making a long trip east for a series they'd probably rather not even play, I can't resist taking the Nationals at attractive home dog odds.