Fiesta Bowl: Boise State Broncos vs. TCU Horned Frogs
The Boise State Broncos and the TCU Horned Frogs will both be trying to pick up a win when they battle at University of Phoenix Stadium in the Fiesta Bowl.
Oddsmakers currently have the Horned Frogs listed as 7-point favorites versus the Broncos, while the game's total is sitting at 53½.
Boise State finished its season undefeated, wrapping with a 42-7 win over New Mexico State at Bronco Stadium in Week 14.
New Mexico State covered as a 46-point road underdog in that game, while the final score played UNDER the 56-point total.
Andy Dalton threw for four touchdowns and ran in another to lead TCU to a 51-10 win over New Mexico in Week 13.
The Horned Frogs did not cover the 44.5-point spread, while the final score played OVER the posted total of 58.
Team records:
Boise State: 13-0 SU, 8-4 ATS
TCU: 12-0 SU, 8-3 ATS
Boise State most recently:
When playing in January are 1-0
When playing on grass are 8-2
After outgaining opponent are 10-0
When an underdog on the road are 4-6
TCU most recently:
When playing on grass are 10-0
After outgaining opponent are 10-0
When favored at home are 10-0
When playing outside the conference are 9-1
A few trends to consider:
Boise State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boise State's last 5 games
TCU is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
TCU is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of TCU's last 5 games
BOISE ST (13 - 0) vs. TCU (12 - 0)
Top Trends for this game.
TCU is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TCU is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TCU is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
TCU is 48-30 ATS (+15.0 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
TCU is 50-31 ATS (+15.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
BOISE ST is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOISE ST is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BOISE ST is 59-23 ATS (+33.7 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
BOISE ST is 54-32 ATS (+18.8 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
BOISE ST is 54-21 ATS (+30.9 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
BOISE ST is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.
BOISE ST is 31-12 ATS (+17.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
BOISE ST is 1-0 against the spread versus TCU over the last 3 seasons
TCU is 1-0 straight up against BOISE ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
BOISE STATE vs. TCU
Boise State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boise State's last 5 games
TCU is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
TCU is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Boise State vs. TCU
Boise State
29-9 ATS off 3 straight conference wins
57-19 ATS second half of season
TCU
9-0 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards
15-6 ATS as favorite
What Bettors Need To Know: Fiesta Bowl
By PATRICK GARBIN
Boise State Broncos vs. TCU Horned Frogs (-7.5, 55)
Many have discredited matching two non-BCS conference schools in a BCS bowl. Nevertheless, this year’s Fiesta Bowl pits two of just the four remaining undefeated FBS teams in a battle for possibly the runner-up spot in the final rankings.
Line movement
The line opened with TCU as a 9-point favorite but the betting public immediately jumped on Boise State, dropping the number to seven-and-a-half, where it has held constant. The total opened at 54 and slowly increased to 55 over the last few weeks.
The wagers are about dead even picking either team against the spread, whereas the over and especially Boise State’s moneyline (+250) are overwhelming selections by the public.
Significant injuries/suspensions
Boise State wide receiver Austin Pettis, who leads the team with 14 touchdown receptions, suffered an ankle injury in late November and is a game-time decision, according to head coach Chris Peterson.
Texas Christian All-MWC cornerback Rafael Priest injured his ankle less than two weeks ago. It looked then there was little hope of him appearing in the Fiesta Bowl but, according to Priest, “it’s [now] looking pretty good” for him to play.
Similar scheduling
One argument is that TCU is a legitimate national-title contender, and certainly more so than Boise State, is the Horned Frogs have played a somewhat challenging schedule. Supporters point to TCU’s games against Air Force and BYU in conference and non-conference foes Virginia and Clemson, all four on the road.
This stance is somewhat of a misconception, especially when compared to BSU, as both teams have faced similar schedules of difficulty. They have played the same number of teams (six) with winning records and nearly the same number (BSU five/TCU six) of bowl teams.
Running success
Texas Christian is known for its dominant defense, however, the Horned Frogs offense is just as successful, especially when running the ball.
Quarterback Andy Dalton had a record-breaking season passing and is one of four Frogs to rush for at least 500 yards. TCU finished the regular season ranked fifth in the nation in rushing offense, seventh in yards per carry and sixth in rushing touchdowns.
Boise State has shown to be susceptible to the run. Although the Broncos held seven opponents to under 100 yards rushing, Fresno State rushed for 320 against them, Nevada for 242 and Idaho for 209.
Very special teams
Boise State has arguably the best overall special teams unit in college football. The Broncos are averaging almost 39 yards net punting, 11 yards per punt return and 27.3 yards on kick returns—fifth best in the nation. They have also blocked four kicks while having none of their own kicks blocked.
Besides leading BSU in receiving, junior wideout Titus Young has returned two kickoffs for touchdowns. Whether running the football (he averaged more than 10 yards per carry and scored three touchdowns) receiving or returning kicks, Young is one of the best big-play players in the WAC.
"We missed [having big plays] last year - especially the TCU game [in the Poinsettia Bowl], with the type of players they had on the field," teammate Jeron Johnson told reporters. "You can't guard [Young] 1-on-1."
Key matchup
Boise State quarterback Kellen Moore is the FBS’ highest-rated passer but was fortunate to face some of the worst pass defenses in the nation, namely Idaho, Nevada, Hawaii and San Jose State. Only Oregon’s pass defense posed any threat to Moore.
Against TCU, Moore will face one of the best defenses against the pass in all of college football. Against a pass-happy schedule, led by Priest, Nick Sanders and receiver-turned-strong safety Tyler Luttrell, the Horned Frogs have allowed opponents to complete just 46 percent of their passes.
"[The Broncos] throw the ball all over the field," said Priest. “I look forward to covering Pettis or any other great receivers they have."
Trends
Boise State and TCU have faced one another twice in their histories. The Broncos won the 2003 Fort Worth Bowl 34-31 as 11-point favorites and the Frogs won last year’s Poinsettia Bowl 17-16 as 3-point favorites.
These teams are two of the best against the spread in the last several years. Boise State has won more than 63 percent of its games ATS since 1999. Texas Christian has won nearly 66 percent ATS since 2005.
The Horned Frogs are 11-13-1 all time in bowls, 6-4-2 ATS since 1984. The Broncos have a 5-4 bowl record, 6-3 ATS.
Unbeatens Collide in Desert Dual
By Doug Upstone
What is great about Monday nights Fiesta Bowl is that it makes for fascinating debate. Starting with the winner will be just one of two unbeaten teams in the country when the season is completed Thursday evening, and will likely end up rated second or third in the country, depending on several factors. If one team is dominant in Glendale, AZ they can raise the discussion point wondering how they might have done against Florida or either of the two participants in the BCS championship contest.
In reading, studying and breaking the two teams down, two elements arise, one for each team. TCU is the better team, period. Think about this for a second, if Cincinnati doesnt execute last minute touchdown drive against Pittsburgh and if the Texas kicker hits the ball one yard further to the left, the Horned Frogs are playing Alabama in a few days.
How good has TCU (12-0, 8-3 ATS) been, they won in Death Valley at Clemson, who almost made Orange Bowl trip and went to BYU and kicked some Cougar tail 38-7, who in turn blitzed Oregon State 44-20 in the Las Vegas Bowl. TCUs resume is further enhanced by the fact they beat all five bowl participants they played (4-1 ATS) and those same five squads each won their bowl matchup.
Coach Gary Pattersons team outscored last seven opponents by average of 47-10 and off their 51-10 nailing of New Mexico in late November, are 9-0 ATS after scoring 50 points or more last game. Heres the rub, they played Boise State in the Poinsettia Bowl last year, beating them 17-16 as three-point favorites, though dominated them in yardage 472-250. Most player quotes coming out of Fort Worth are similar to this, Yes we are excited to be playing in BCS game against Boise State who is a very good team .BUT we really would have liked to see how we would matchup against Florida or one of other BCS conferences teams.
This does not signify that TCU wont play an outstanding game, but you have to wonder at least a little about a club that is a seven-point favorite, facing a team in revenge mode, who feels they could be overlooked by opponent.
What does Boise State (13-0, 8-4 ATS) have to do to get beyond cute cousin status? Do they need to roll up the Smurf turf and maybe go to black turf instead and maybe change uniforms to more menacing colors to get street cred? What about quarterback Kellen Moore, who has 39 touchdowns and three interceptions, along with 65 percent throwing accuracy, having the nickname -The Assassin.
Alas, Boise isnt Miami, so no documentary about how this program arose from essentially nothing to a consistent Top 15 performer this past decade. Coach Chris Peterson looks more like the local high school track coach, not somebody who runs one of the top football programs in the country and lacks the Bobby Petrino and Brian Kelly mentality to win for the next better job.
Peterson may look gentlemanly, but coaches like him have the fire burning and the Broncos are 25-8 ATS after scoring 31 points or more in five straight games. Under Peterson, this is Boise States third unblemished regular season in the last four years and the schools fourth in the last six. They won a memorable game three years ago in same location over Oklahoma and the only team to stifle the Oregon Ducks offense as much as Ohio State did in the Rose Bowl was the Broncos in the first game of the year. They held the Ducks to 152 total yards.
BetUS.com sees this as a more offensive affair then a year ago, with the total at 54.5 compared to last years 46 points in San Diego contest. Well keep with our Monday night theme. Well provide reasons why either team should cover. In the Fiesta Bowl, when the line is 5.5 or higher, the underdog has emerged the spread winner seven of last nine. In regards to the total, when the number is 51 or higher, the results have been 6-2 UNDER in most recent matchups.
Boise State covers if they can match TCUs physicality. The offensive line is going to have to provide occasional creases against rugged Horned Frogs front for RBs Jeremy Avery and Doug Martin. The Broncos only allowed five sacks all season, they are bound to give up a few to DE Jerry Hughes and others from aggressive TCU defense, hopefully they can minimize the damage and Moore can find targets quickly as he has all season. That is why first and second down will be so important for Boise State, trying to stay out of third and longs. The Broncos cannot allow TCU ground game to churn, they must shed blocks and fill gaps, something they did struggle with at different times against better rushing teams. The Broncos are 24-6 ATS versus offensive teams averaging 425 yards a game and have revenge and possible disrespect card to play.
TCU covers if they come to make a statement. Though it is not always easy to tell against a variety of substandard competition, Coach Pattersons team appears capable of beating ANY team in the country on a given day. If TCU plays with the same purpose they have all season and doesnt have fascinations about Gators, Longhorns or a team from Tuscaloosa, they win by at least 10 points. Coach Pattersons crew has speed edge and can be disrupt any offensive. QB Andy Dalton matured into an accurate thrower as a senior (22 touchdowns and five interceptions) and truly does have a stable of running backs to run behind a punishing offensive line that could wear down Boise State. Its not an accident the Frogs are 13-4 ATS after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in consecutive games.
Bowl System - Play Under in any bowl game, in a non-conference game between two teams from second tier non-BCS conferences. (38-14, ATS L10Y)
(6) Boise State (13-0, 8-4 ATS) vs. (4) TCU (12-0, 8-4 ATS)
Two non-BCS squads hook up in the postseason for the second straight year, this time at University of Phoenix Stadium in the marquee Fiesta Bowl, as Boise State meets TCU in a battle of unbeatens.
The Broncos capped their fourth undefeated regular season in the last six years with a 42-7 rout of New Mexico State on Dec. 5, but came up short as a massive 46-point home chalk. Boise State rolled to its third straight Western Athletic Conference title by winning 12 of its 13 games by double digits, with nine wins of 17 points or more. Going back to the start of last season, coach Chris Petersen’s squad is 25-1 SU and 16-7-1 ATS, with the only blemish being a 17-16 loss to TCU in last year’s Poinsettia Bowl. Also, since September 2005, the Broncos are 57-6 SU, and this is their second BCS Bowl appearance, having stunned Oklahoma 43-42 in the Fiesta Bowl following the 2006 season to finish that year 13-0.
The Horned Frogs have been idle since Nov. 28, when they destroyed New Mexico 51-10 at home, though they fell just shy of covering the 44½-point spread, ending a 6-0 ATS run. En route to its first-ever Mountain West Conference championship, TCU notched 10 double-digit wins, including the last seven in a row by a combined score of 329-73, with victory margins of 38, 31, 41, 43, 27, 35 and 41 points. Coach Gary Patterson’s team is 26-2 over the past 28 games (18-8 ATS in lined action), with 24 of those victories by double digits. The only losses were on the road to Oklahoma (35-10) and Utah (13-10), two teams that finished last year ranked in the Top 5.
Although the Horned Frogs barely held off Boise State in last year’s Poinsettia Bowl, they dominated the game from a statistical standpoint, finishing with edges of 472-250 in total yards, 275-28 in rushing yards, 28-15 in first downs and 36-24 in time of possession. Still, TCU came up short as a 3½-point favorite. The only other recent meeting between these schools came in the 2003 Texas Bowl, with Boise State prevailing 34-31 but failing to cover as a 10-point favorite.
Since stunning Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl, Boise State has lost consecutive bowl games by a total of four points. Under Petersen the Broncos are just 1-4 in the postseason (the one victory over Oklahoma) but 3-2 ATS with the four defeats by a combined 14 points.
The Horned Frogs are in the postseason for the 11th time in the last 12 years, with this being their first BCS bowl contest. TCU is 5-3 SU and 4-3-1 ATS in the postseason since Patterson took over, including 4-1-1 ATS in the last six.
Boise State scored 42 points or more in nine of 13 games this year, including the last seven in a row, when the Broncos averaged 49.3 ppg. Led by QB Kellen Moore (64.6 completion rate, 3,325 yards, 39 TDs, 3 INTs), the Broncos lead the nation in scoring offense (44.2 ppg), rank eighth in total offense (460.5 ypg) and 20th in rushing offense (195.1 ypg). Defensively, Boise limited six opponents to 16 points or less and finished giving up 17.7 points and 299.6 total yards per outing (126.8 rushing ypg).
TCU scored 44, 38, 41, 55, 55, 45 and 51 points over its final seven weeks and enter this contest ranked in the Top 10 nationally in scoring offense (40.7 ppg, third), total offense (469.1 ypg, fourth) and rushing offense (256.5 ypg, fifth). Three-year starting QB Andy Dalton paces the attack, as he’s completed 62.4 percent of his passes for 2,484 yards with 22 TDs and five INTs, along with 516 rushing yards and three additional scores.
In addition to having a Top 10 offense, the Horned Frogs rank in the Top 10 in scoring defense (12.4 ppg, sixth), total defense (233.3 ypg, first), passing defense (152.8 ypg, tied for fourth) and rushing defense (80.5 ypg, third). The Frogs have surrendered 17 points or less in 20 of their last 22 games against Division I-A foes since the start of the 2008 season. Take away the 35-10 loss at Oklahoma last year, and they’ve yielded just 31 touchdowns since the beginning of 2008. Moreover, TCU has surrendered 10 points or less 14 times in 25 games going back to the beginning of last year.
Boise State is on a boatload of positive ATS runs, including 16-7-1 overall, 6-2 in bowl games, 4-1 as an underdog, 4-1 as a ‘dog in bowl games, 4-0 when catching 3½ to 10 points, 6-1 in non-conference play and 9-0 on grass. Likewise, the Horned Frogs also have been a moneymaking machine, currently on ATS upticks of 39-19-1 overall, 6-1 in the last six games (all as a favorite), 4-1 in bowls, 7-1 when coming off a non-cover and 37-18-1 when playing on grass.
The under is on runs of 5-1 for Boise in non-league action, 5-0 for Boise against Mountain West opponents, 6-2 for Boise as an underdog, 5-0-1 for TCU in bowl games, 6-1 for TCU against WAC foes, 6-0 when TCU is favored by 3½ to 10 points and 12-3-1 for TCU after a non-cover. On the flip side, the over is on streaks of 4-1 for the Broncos overall, 5-2 for the Broncos against winning teams and 4-0 for TCU overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Fiesta Bowl Preview
By Judd Hall
At first glance, this year’s Fiesta Bowl between Texas Christian (12-0 straight up, 8-3 against the spread) and Boise State (13-0 SU, 8-4 ATS) looked a lot like the college football version of Plessy v. Ferguson. When you look closer, you realize that this is one of the better matchups of the bowl season.
This showdown has already provided a couple of firsts as it’s the first BCS game that isn’t for the national title to have two unbeaten programs and first time that two teams from non-qualifying conferences to make it to the big party.
TCU was expecting to have a shot at making the national title game this year, but wound up falling behind the Bearcats in the final standings. Sportsbook.com isn’t expecting the Horned Frogs to suffer a let down in Glendale by making them 7½-point favorites with a total of 55.
While the line leans heavily towards the Horned Frogs, gamblers have split the money equally towards both sides when it comes to the spread. Bettors are taking a different approach for the money line wagers by siding with the Broncos for a plus-250 return (risk $100 to win $250).
How could you fault people from taking Boise State to pick up its second BCS victory? This is a team that has put up no fewer than 42 points over its last seven wins of the season. In that stretch, the Broncos were doing some heavy duty work at the betting shops by covering as 30-point favorites twice.
The Broncos have taken advantage of an offensive line that has given up the fewest in the nation (5) to lead the Football Bowl Subdivision in scoring (44.2 points per game). That type of protection has helped Kellen Moore turn into a legitimate Heisman contender for next season. All he’s done is complete 65 percent of his passes for 3,325 yards and has tossed for 39 touchdowns with only three interceptions. It’s no wonder that Moore leads all signal callers with a quarterback rating of 167.4.
That o-line and passing attack has also allowed the ground game to flourish as BSU is 20th in the country with 194.5 rushing yards per game this season. The Broncs have the benefit of having two solid running backs to choose from: Jeremy Avery has gained 1,131 yards and six scores, while Doug Martin has 723 yards and 14 touchdowns to his credit.
This offensive unit no doubt remembers the hurt that TCU put on them as a 3½-point underdog in last year’s Poinsettia Bowl 17-16 win. The Broncos were only able to pick up 250 of total offense, 28 of which came on the ground.
It’s going to take Boise State’s best performance of the year to avenge that postseason loss. Texas Christian has one of the elite defenses in the country. The Horned Frogs are within the Top 5 nationally against the run (3rd, 80.5 YPG) and defending the pass (4th, 152.8 YPG). And this stopping unit is averaging 2.7 sacks per game, so even Moore will have to be on his toes…especially with one of the nation’s best pass rushers in defensive end Jerry Hughes, who leads the nation with 11 ½ sacks this year.
We’re making a lot of the Broncos’ offense, but Texas Christian is definitely not a slouch when it comes to attacking the opposition. This team finished fourth in the country with 469.1 YPG this year. A big reason for the Horned Frogs’ success has been the play of QB Andy Dalton. The Mountain West Conference’s Offensive Player of the Year finished fourth in pass efficiency with a rating of 159.6. Dalton also completed 62 percent of his passes for 2,484 yards and 22 touchdowns.
Dalton is also an effective cog in a rushing assault that is fifth in the nation with 256.5 YPG on the ground. What’s particularly impressive about this group is that any one of four players can keep the ball for a run. Joseph Turner (732 rushing yards, 11 touchdowns) anchors the crew that has picked up no fewer than 522 yards.
The Broncos don’t find themselves listed as underdogs often, as it’s only happened seven times over the last five years. Boise State is 2-5 SU and 2-4-1 ATS in those meetings. The ‘under’ is 5-2 in that time frame.
Texas Christian has been exceptional as the “chalk” over the last five seasons under Gary Patterson, going 44-5 SU and 34-15 ATS. Bettors saw the ‘under’ go 26-20-3 in these tilts as well.
The Horned Frogs have done a great job in their recent postseason appearances by scoring a 5-2 SU and ATS mark since 2002. Boise State, in comparison, is just 1-4 SU and 3-2 ATS in its last five bowls.
TCU has been almost automatic when listed as a favorite against teams from the WAC. They’re a profitable 25-5 SU and 18-9 ATS dating back to 1996, when the Horned Frogs started their five-year affiliation with the WAC.
Boise State has gone 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in its four games against Mountain West competition as a pup. That record includes last year’s Poinsettia Bowl against the Horned Frogs.
vegasinsider.com
Fiesta Bowl Preview
Underdog is 6-2 vs spread in last eight Fiesta Bowls (5-2 in last seven SU) with Boise posting 43-42 upset of Oklahoma three years ago. MWC teams are 4-0 in bowls this season, winning all four SU as the dog. Boise is 48-4 the last four seasons, but they lost 17-16 (+3) to TCU LY in the Poinsettia Bowl. Horned Frogs won last four bowls; only one was by more than seven points; they're 53-10 the last five seasons. Surprising stat: Boise State has only four scholarship seniors on its team. TCU has six senior starters. WAC road dogs are 10-8 vs spread in non-divisional games. MWC favorites are 5-7 vs spread, 2-2 on road.
Tips and Trends
Boise St. Broncos at TCU Horned Frogs
Boise St: Boise St. has become the 1st team in the BCS era to get an at large bid from a non-qualifying conference. The Broncos finished their season with a perfect 13-0 SU record. The Broncos went 4-2 ATS on the road this season. Today represents the 1st time this season that the Broncos will be the listed underdog. Boise St. has scored at least 42 PTS in 7 consecutive games. This Broncos offense is so balanced, as they are ranked 14th in the nation both passing and rushing. Not surprisingly, the Broncos lead the nation in scoring at 44.2 PPG. QB Kellen Moore has 39 TD passes to only 3 INTs this year, and leads all starting QBs in QB Rating this season. Defensively, the Broncos need to improve their run defense, as they've allowed opponents to rush for an average of 175 YPG over their past 5 games. This Broncos defense has forced 12 turnovers over their past 4 games, as they've been an opportunistic defense all year long.
Boise St is 6-2 ATS last 8 bowl games.
Under is 6-2 last 8 games as an underdog.
Key Injuries - WR Austin Pettis (ankle) is questionable.
LB Derrell Acrey (leg) is probable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 21
TCU (-7.5, O/U 53.5): TCU has had an unbelievable season, going undefeated the entire season. TCU has been winning in blowout fashion, as they've won by at least 27 PTS in each of their past 7 games. TCU was 8-3 ATS this season, and 2-0 ATS when the point spread was single digits. The Horned Frogs were 5-1 ATS away from home this season, with the lone loss coming in brutal weather elements against Air Force. TCU has scored more than 50 PTS in 3 of their past 4 games, and have scored at least 40 PTS in 6 of their past 7 contests. QB Andy Dalton directs the 4th best offense in the country, as he has over 3,000 total YDS with 25 TDs against 5 INTs this season. 4 different Horned Frogs have rushed for at least 500 YDS this season. TCU has the best total defense in the nation, only allowing 233 YPG. The Horned Frogs also only allow 12.4 PPG this year. TCU has held 6 of their past 7 opponents to 12 PTS or less coming into tonight.
TCU is 6-1 ATS last 7 games as a favorite.
Under is 5-0-1 last 6 Bowl games.
Key Injuries - S Tekerrein Cuba (hamstring) is questionable.
CB Rafael Priest (ankle) is doubtful.
PROJECTED SCORE: 27 (UNDER - Total of the Day)
Fiesta Bowl Preview
By Chris Marakovitz
Psychology: Extremely complex psychological situation here- two undefeated teams from outside the BCS establishment seek revenge against the big boys by facing off against…each other? Hmmmm. How’s that supposed to work? Kind of a no-win situation for the mid-majors- the loser drops down a notch and the winner doesn’t really prove anything vis-à-vis the BCS system that excluded them. In looking for the psychological edge, let’s remember that, while TCU was at least considered a reasonable candidate for the BCS Championship game, equally undefeated Boise State wasn’t even in the conversation. This gives the Broncos a reason to hate TCU. TCU, on the other hand, is busy hating Texas. And therein lies the dilemma- they’re not playing Texas. Advantage Boise.
What to Expect from TCU: Perfection. At least that’s what’s they’ve delivered so far. This is a team seemingly without a weakness. They finished fifth in the nation in total offense. They finished first in the nation in defense (third against the run, fourth against the pass). Once again, that’s not in the conference, that’s not among non-BCS schools, that’s in the nation. They had the Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year in QB Andy Dalton and they had not only the Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year, but the winner of the Ted Hendricks Award given to the nation’s best defensive end in Jerry Hughes. The offense has great balance, with a stable of effective backs and receivers who all share a piece of the action due to the efficient execution and decision-making ability of Dalton (22 TD’s, 5 picks). The defense has incredible speed, which they used to hold every team on their schedule below their season averages with four teams relegated to their season-worst yardage output.
What to Expect from Boise State: Boise does almost everything well. Emphasis here on almost. Hard to argue with their offense, which led the nation with 44.2 points per game. While TCU’s Dalton is impressive for his efficiency on offense, Boise’s Kellen Moore is even better, with the nation’s best QB rating and a TD-INT ratio of 39-3. Defensively, on the other hand, Boise has shown some alarming vulnerabilities later in the season. After an outstanding early performance in the season-opening win over Oregon, the Broncos regressed. The only thing that saved them was their ability to force turnovers (21 in the last seven games). But can they expect to live off the turnover against TCU? It’s also worth noting that Boise is the less healthy team here, expected to be without a starter at fullback, another at middle linebacker, a top-four running back and a top-three receiver.
Prediction: Both teams are efficient and productive on offense, but TCU holds a significant advantage defensively. They key will be turnovers. While Dalton takes care of the ball, the Horned Frogs have shown a propensity for the fumble (six lost in the last three games). Considering Boise’s proven ability to create turnovers, this is a concern. Assuming TCU solves this problem, they pull away in the second half. TCU 34-24.