Fins getting no respect
By Sportsbook.com
Oddsmakers allowing Dolphins to play respect card
Despite registering 11 wins last season, the oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com are unimpressed with last year’s performance as they have handicapped them at O/U 7.5 total wins for 2009 campaign.
After losing four of first six contests, Miami started to sizzle. The Dolphins won nine of last 10 regular season games (5-5 ATS), including their last five, of which four were on the road.
A closer look reveals that they played mostly beatable teams. In there last 10 contests, only the Patriots and the Jets had winning records at the end of the season.
This year’s schedule looks like a massive upgrade, starting with trading the NFC West for the much better NFC South. In the AFC, the West contingent of four teams has been exchanged for arguably the best division in football, the AFC South. This switch of divisions alone could account for two or three losses, even if Miami plays at the same level as last season.
New England is presumed to be better with Tom Brady back in control and Buffalo and the Jets are thought to be similar, with the Bills a touch better and the Flyboys a little worse.
Miami would not seem to have the same luxury of slow start, followed by big finish. The first three games are at Atlanta, home to Indianapolis on Monday night, followed by a short week cross-country journey to San Diego. The final six encounters read this way in exact order - @ Buffalo, New England, @ Jacksonville, @ Tennessee, Houston and Pittsburgh. Depending on various factors, the Dolphins might only be favored twice in last six tilts.
Last season QB Chad Pennington had a very solid season; however, health is always a concern with him. Since becoming a starter in the Big Apple in 2002, Pennington has averaged 15 starts in the even-numbered years, in the three odd-numbered years, less than seven.
Ronnie Brown should have greater offensive impact as running back and the offensive line should be even more cohesive with a year under their belts. The wide receivers are average, as Ted Ginn Jr. has shown little improvement as route runner. However tight end Anthony Fasano was a very pleasant surprise.
The Fins defense improved greatly last season to 15th in total defense and ninth in points allowed. With a schedule of much better offenses, linebacker Joey Porter will have to lead the younger players by example. Porter was revitalized in playing 3-4 defense again and Jason Ferguson has to be the anchor at nose tackle. The secondary allowed yards (227.5, ranked 25th), but had 18 interceptions.
Turnover margin is the single biggest influence on any team and Miami was No.1 last year at +17. It is infrequently teams come anywhere close to replicating high turnover figures the next season. Recent examples include the unbeaten Patriots going from +16 to +1, as record fell from 16-0 to 11-5. In 2006, Baltimore had 13-3 record and +15 in turnover margin. The following season that number plummeted to -17 in their 5-11 campaign. Seattle was a 10-6 division champion in 2007, with +10 on turnovers, last season, -7 and dismal 4-12 season.
Just after 2010 arrives, we’ll have clear idea how right or wrong Sportsbook.com odds-makers were on Miami, here is one vote for the Under, with 7-9 season for disappointed Dolphins fans.