Five overrated college football teams
By DAVID PAYNE
Every year, the media falls in love with certain undeserving teams. The hype machine gets going and, before you know it, Vegas is forced to inflate odds on these media darlings.
Last year, it was Georgia, which landed on top of most preseason polls, but wasn’t competitive against Alabama or Florida and finished 3-7-1 ATS.
Which media darlings are getting overhyped this season? Here are five candidates.
Oregon Ducks
Do you really think Mike Bellotti would step down if the Ducks were loaded for a Rose Bowl run?
The longtime Oregon coach’s timing conjures up memories of Lloyd Carr’s departure at Michigan.
The Ducks won’t be as bad as last year’s Wolverines, but there are some major concerns about new coach Chip Kelly’s inexperienced team.
Dual-threat quarterback Jeremiah Masoli and running back LeGarrett Blount are a nice tandem, but who’s going to block for them? Only one starter returns on the offensive line.
Top receiver Chris Harper was one of 12 players to leave the program after the coaching change.
It’s not much prettier on the defensive line, where only one starter returns. The entire defense has just five starters back from a unit that allowed 28.2 points a game last season.
Yet, the Ducks can be found in most preseason top 25 polls and have the same odds (+300) to win the Pac-10 as a talented Cal team that returns 15 starters.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
You could put the Irish on this list annually.
The last time we saw Notre Dame, quarterback Jimmy Clausen was lighting up that mighty Hawaii defense in a bowl game. Nine starters return from that offense, including the core of the offensive line and a pair of star receivers.
But No. 7?!! That’s where Phil Steele has the Irish ranked in preseason magazine.
The Irish are 22-to-1 to win it all. LSU is 20-to-1.
That just seems dead wrong.
Oklahoma Sooners
You’ll find the Sooners in the top five of every preseason poll. They could very well finish there, but don’t expect them to blow people off the field every week like last year.
Oklahoma’s prolific offense led to a 10-2 mark against the spread, tied with Florida for the best ATS winning percentage in 2008.
With an ultra-fast-paced offense led by quarterback Sam Bradford and pair of 1,000-yard rusher in Chris Brown and DeMarco Murray, the Sooners overwhelmed defenses and oddsmakers, who couldn’t set lines high enough.
Oklahoma was favored by an average of 19 points a game, but won by average of 30.2.
Bradford, both running backs and All-American tight end Jermaine Gresham are back, so the Sooners won’t suddenly become impotent. But they won’t have a senior-laden offensive line full of NFL prospects leading the way either. Only one starter is back.
That’s OK, because Oklahoma’s defense, with nine returning starters and a dominant front, will be significantly better.
The combination of the untested offensive line and improved defense could lead to coach Bob Stoops easing back on the offensive tempo.
If that results in lower scoring games, it would make covering the large numbers the Sooners will be laying difficult.
Central Michigan Chippewas
The clear-cut favorites in the MAC, the Chippewas aren’t expected to be tested in conference.
By now, everybody knows about senior quarterback Dan LeFevour. He’s kind of a poor man’s Tim Tebow, who has started and put up big numbers for three years.
CMU has scored right at 30 points a game each of those seasons. But LeFevour will be playing behind an offensive line with a sophomore and redshirt freshman as starting tackles. The running back spot is a question mark too.
Luckily for the Chippewas, their defense, with 10 returning starters, should be vastly improved from last year’s unit, which yielded 30.2 points a game.
Central Michigan plays seven teams that were bowl eligible last season on the road. They are 1-4-1 ATS as road favorites (0-3 last year) under head coach Butch Jones.
Tennessee Volunteers
New coach Lane Kiffin has spent the offseason ruffling feathers throughout the SEC.
It garnered plenty of media attention, but does Kiffin have anything to back up his talk with on the field?
Not really.
Frankly, the rest of the SEC is glad to see senior quarterback Jonathan Crompton back under center. If this year’s anything like last, he’ll be splitting time with Nick Stephens, who didn’t exactly light it up either.
The quarterbacking was so bad the Vols attempted only 17 passes total in the final two games of the season.
To make things more difficult for the offense, top receiver Austin Rogers was lost for the season and projected starting running back Lennon
Creer was one of close to 15 players that left the program after the coaching change.
Even with those major question marks, the Vols are almost unanimously picked third in the SEC East, behind Florida and Georgia.
The Head Ball Coach and South Carolina might have something to say about that.
It won’t shock anyone to see an opposing SEC coach, say Urban Meyer, tack on a late touchdown to make sure Kiffin knows his place on the totem pole.