Football Newsletters 10/13- 10/19

THE GOLD SHEET

KEY RELEASES

SEATTLE by 14 over Arizona
NEW ENGLAND by 23 over Tennessee
UNDER THE TOTAL in the Denver-San Diego game

WASHINGTON 17 - Kansas City 16—It’s difficult to pick the spot where
Kansas City finally breaks into the win column if Larry Johnson’s rush stats
continue to be measured by inches (84) rather than yards (2.3) per carry. But
QB Matt Cassel (who could sure use an effective diversion provided by L.J.)
finally made some plays last week vs. Dallas. Certainly not eager to lay points
with the choppy Redskin offense (14.6 ppg) in front of the FedEx Field boo birds.
Note that underdog has covered the number in first five Washington games.
(05-KANSAS CITY -6 28-21...SR: Kansas City 6-1)

Houston 27 - CINCINNATI 24—Okay, maybe it’s time to take Cincy seriously
after last week’s win at Baltimore, when the Bengals and their improved OL
played a little smashmouth (Cedric Benson 120 YR) vs. NFL’s best rush
defense. But we also know the nature of the NFL, where teams such as
Houston develop zig-zag W-L patterns that often endure (by that trend, Texans
due to cover this week). Sure, Chad Ochocinco a good bet to appear on ESPN
Game Day highlights against Houston secondary still running through
combinations. But Matt Schaub already has a trio of 300-yard games, and note
that underdog has covered in first 5 Cincy contests.
(08-HOU. 35-Cincy 6...H.23-16 H.31/109 C.22/105 H.24/28/0/275 C.20/32/2/148 H.0 C.1)
(08-HOUSTON -9' 35-6...SR: Cincinnati 3-1)

PITTSBURGH 33 - Cleveland 10—With Derek Anderson (2 for 17 passing at
Buffalo!) posting stats that would make even the Navy Midshipmen QBs cringe,
hard to envision Cleveland reaching end zone enough to stay within range at
Heinz Field. Remember, failing to score offensive TDs (now 9 of last 11 games!)
nothing new in Brownsland. With Steelers enjoying RB Rashard Mendenhall’s
recent contributions (243 YR last 2) and emergence of Ole Miss rookie WR
Mike Wallace (47-yard TD last week) as a big-play threat, hard to envision champs
breaking a sweat. Note Pittsburgh “over” 48-23 since early ‘01 at home.
(08-Pitt 10-CLE. 6...C.17-14 P.31/117 C.25/53 P.12/19/0/164 C.18/32/2/155 P.0 C.0)
(08-PITT 31-Cle. 0...P.20-8 P.35/176 C.29/106 P.17/27/1/193 C.6/18/2/20 P.0 C.0)
(08-Pittsburgh -6' 10-6, PITTSBURGH -11 31-0...SR: Pittsburgh 59-55)

Baltimore 19 - MINNESOTA 17—Joe Flacco was six years old when Brett
Favre broke into the NFL with Atlanta way back in 1991. But in 2009, the now
24-year-old can battle the 40-year-old Favre on somewhat equal terms, thanks
in part to the robust Baltimore defense (stinging after allowing an
uncharacteristic 120 YR to Cincy’s Cedric Benson last week) that figures to load
up in the box against Adrian Peterson and make Favre beat it through the air.
True, Vikings still unbeaten, but they’re hardly an automatic “go with” at the
Metrodome, where they’ve covered only 4 of their last 13 (1-1 TY).
(05-BALTIMORE -3 30-23...SR: Baltimore 2-1)

JACKSONVILLE 34 - St. Louis 16—While we ponder the possibility that
Rush Limbaugh might become part of the St. Louis ownership group (can you
imagine Keith Olbermann maintaining objectivity when reviewing Ram
highlights on NBC’s Sunday night show?), we also ponder the possibility that
the horned helmets (now 15 losses and counting) might potentially equal John
McKay’s 1976-77 Bucs and their all-time 26-game losing streak in St. Louis’
Jan. 3 finale vs. the 49ers. Marc Bulger (led only St. Louis TD drive last week)
might be back to start and take his shots against the leaky Jag pass defense.
But David Garrard & Co. loaded for bear (Ram?) after last week’s blanking at
Seattle. (05-ST. LOUIS +3' 24-21...SR: St. Louis 2-0)

NEW ORLEANS 27 - New York Giants 23—Arguments abound for both of
these undefeated teams. So, put down your money and take your choice. Here
are some arguments for N.O. in a contest that might have playoff implications
down the road. The Saints have had some extra prep time (although being a
bye home favorite is usually not a great edge). Their QB, Drew Brees, has been
uncanny TY in his fourth season in the offense of clever HC Sean Payton (a
former NYG assistant). Eli Manning has missed some practice because of his
foot. His WRs are young. And the Giant secondary hasn’t been healthy, while
the Saints’ is improved. But Tom Coughlin is 10-1 last 11 as a dog and 15-2 vs.
the number on the road! (06-New Orleans +3 30-7...SR: NY Giants 14-10)

TAMPA BAY 20 - Carolina 17—lf there’s a pony somewhere in Tampa Bay’s
recent pile of manure, perhaps it’s the fact that young QB Josh Johnson is
getting a chance to cut his teeth against regular-season competition. The
quick, talented Johnson (3 TDs, 4 ints. in two starts, both on the road) is getting
used to big-time targets such as Kellen Winslow and Antonio Bryant (combined
14 catches last week vs. Philly). Meanwhile, Jake Delhomme (3 TDs, 8 ints.)
continues to labor, and Carolina can’t seem to get DeAngelo Williams and
Jonathan Stewart established on the ground. So, Panthers (0-4 vs. the line)
provide the Bucs their best chance yet to break debilitating 9-game losing streak.
(08-T. BAY 27-Car. 3...T.17-14 T.37/142 C.20/40 C.20/39/3/242 T.15/20/0/173 T.0 C.0)
(08-CAR. 38-T. Bay 23...C.26-21 C.37/299 T.24/86 T.24/38/0/298 C.14/20/2/165 C.0 T.0)
(08-TAMPA BAY -1' 27-3, CAROLINA -3 38-23...SR: Carolina 10-7)

GREEN BAY 35 - Detroit 17—Through its first four games, G.B. and its
injured OL had given up a league-leading 20 sacks. The Pack hopes LT Chad
Clifton (ankle injury in second game) can return, and there is talk G.B. might resign
former RT Mart Tauscher before long. More importantly, Detroit’s defense
is certainly not Minnesota’s (nor even Chicago’s or Cincy’s). So, with a week for
the Packers to scheme and to drill on protections, must anticipate the rocketarmed
Aaron Rodgers (6 TDs, 1 int.) having a big day. Packers “over” 21 of last
29; Lions “over” 12 of 14 away.
(08-G. Bay 48-DET. 25...G.19-15 G.30/123 D.12/49 G.24/38/0/324 D.23/45/3/262 G.1 D.0)
(08-G. BAY 31-Det. 21...G.20-19 G.27/211 D.29/96 G.21/31/0/273 D.22/42/2/220 G.1 D.0)
(08-Green Bay -3 48-25, GREEN BAY -10' 31-21...SR: Green Bay 88-64-7)

Philadelphia 27 - OAKLAND 9—Raiders’ super-struggling offense has been
outgained 1593-632 since its Monday night opener, with Oakland and QB
JaMarcus Russell (40%) drawing some infamous comparisons. No. 1 draft
pick, WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, has contributed two recs. so far. Meanwhile,
Philly loaded with playmakers at the skill positions, including being three-deep
at QB (Donovan McNabb 3 TDP last week in his return).
(05-PHILADELPHIA -8' 23-20...SR: EVEN 5-5)

SEATTLE 27 - Arizona 13—Prior to last week’s game vs. Jacksonville,
HC Jim Mora Jr. of then 1-3 Seattle, vowed an all-out effort to salvage the
team’s 2009 season, setting a goal of winning its next two games and going into
its much-needed bye week at 3-3. Usually playing with 7-8 starters out, the
Seahawks got their best news last week with the return of QB Matt Hasselbeck
(4 TDP vs. Jacksonville) from a cracked rib. He can ignite Seattle’s improved
WR corps at home and give help to the ground game and defense to outscore
the visiting defending NFC West champs.
(08-Ariz. 26-SEA. 20...A.24-18 A.24/76 S.22/43 A.32/44/1/382 S.17/29/3/153 A.2 S.1)
(08-ARIZ. 34-Sea. 21...S.24-19 A.19/111 S.28/87 A.24/38/1/346 S.24/43/2/243 A.1 S.1)
(08-Arizona -3 26-20, ARIZONA -6' 34-21...SR: Arizona 11-9)

NY JETS 27 - Buffalo 13—It’s difficult these days to find the silver lining in
the dark cloud over the Bills (0-3 SU & vs. the spread last 3 games; held to 20
total points). Their no-huddle attack is being easily defended, and Buffalo’s
young OL (two rookies and one near-rookie generally start) figure to be in for a
long day vs. Rex Ryan’s overloads and blitzes. Last week, the Bills faced
Cleveland defensive coordinator Rob Ryan. Do you think they talk? (They do.)
Braylon Edwards’ home debut in New York.
(08-NY Jets 26-BUF. 17...B.18-16 N.25/96 B.17/30 B.24/35/2/262 N.19/28/1/201 N.0 B.1)
(08-NY JETS 31-Buf. 27...B.23-18 B.32/187 N.24/165 N.17/30/2/207 B.24/39/3/119 N.0 B.1)
(08-NY Jets +5' 26-17, NY JETS -7' 31-27...SR: Buffalo 53-44)

NEW ENGLAND 33 - Tennessee 10—A hot team, the cold weather,
and stubborn defense got the best of the Patriots last week in Denver. None of
those roadblocks exist this week, as Tennessee is now 3-10 SU (4-7 vs. spread)
since LY’s 10-0 start. The Titans’ pass rush has disappeared, the DBs are
injured, the WRs are non-scary, and opposing defenses are ganging up on
Chris Johnson. All that is bad news vs. a N.E. team off a loss, and with Tom
Brady getting in a groove again with Wes Welker. Pats 4-1 vs. the spread off
a SU loss the last 1+Ys. (06-New England +3 40-23...SR: New England 21-16-1)

*Chicago 23 - ATLANTA 20—LY’s game helped fashion the nickname of
Atlanta QB Matt “Matty Ice” Ryan. Chicago had kicked a FG to take a 20-19 lead
with 11 seconds left. But a 10-yard return of a squib kick and a clutch 26-yard
bullet pass to the sideline at the Chicago 30 set up the winning FG for the Falcs.
Atlanta is 7-3 vs. the spread at home for Mike Smith. But Bears are more
experienced on defense than the rebuilding Falcon unit. And Chicago now has
gunslinging QB Jay Cutler and an improved cast of receivers. TV—NBC
(08-ATL. 22-Chi. 20...C.22-18 C.23/79 A.30/75 A.22/30/0/301 C.26/43/0/282 A.1 C.1)
(08-ATLANTA +3 22-20...SR: Chicago 12-11)

MONDAY, OCTOBER 19

UNDER THE TOTAL *Denver 17 - SAN DIEGO 16—After seeing his
S.D. team out-rushed 177-16 in Pittsburgh and trail 28-0 in the third Q, GM A.J.
Smith termed the performance “absolutely embarrassing.” He was right, of
course, even though some of his players, including OLB Shawne Merriman (0
sacks TY) took umbrage. The biggest culprits have been key injuries in the OL
and losses in the DL (injured DT Jamal Williams & departed DE Igor
Olshansky). Chargers trail the league in rush offense (54 ypg). But they have
done well vs. Denver, winning & covering last three meetings in S.D., including
LY’s AFC West-deciding finale. However, is it not true that in 2009, the Broncos
run better and defend much better (8.6 ppg) than S.D.? QB Orton has only one
int.! If Denver can overcome those throwback uniforms of last week, it can win
this game. TV—ESPN
(08-DEN. 39-S. Diego 38...D.34/19 D.24/145 S.18/80 S.21/33/1/376 D.36/50/1/341 D.0 S.0)
(08-S. DIEGO 52-Den. 21...S.28-25 S.42/289 D.10/90 D.33/49/2/316 S.15/20/0/202 S.0 D.0)
(08-DENVER P 39-38, SAN DIEGO -7' 52-21...SR: Denver 53-44-1)

Denver and San Diego on Monday Night
Denver are 6-21 straight-up and 9-17-1 vs. the pointspread on the road
on Monday Night Football; 19-10-1 straight-up and 12-17-1 vs. the
pointspread at home on Monday Night Football. San Diego is 12-8
straight-up and 14-6 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night
Football; 6-6 straight-up and 5-7 vs. the pointspread on the road on
Monday Night Football.

COLLEGE ANALYSIS

OHIO STATE by 24 over Purdue
WAKE FOREST by 5 over Clemson
STANFORD by 4 over Arizona
TROY by 21 over Florida International
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 15

*Cincinnati 27 - SOUTH FLORIDA 20—Substantial home-field edge for
South Florida in battle between top Big East contenders. And dual-threat RS
frosh QB Daniels has already led Bulls to road victories at Fla. State & Syracuse
since taking over for injured star Grothe. But doubt the raw Daniels ready to
prevail in showdown vs. Cincy’s pinpoint sr. gunslinger Pike (1493 YP & 13 TDP
on 67%). Early predictions concerning the demise of rebuilt Bearcat defense (10
sacks vs. Miami-Ohio!) have proved greatly exaggerated. CABLE TV—ESPN
(08-CINCY 24-S. Fla. 10...C.23-19 S.39/182 C.37/115 C.20/28/1/281 S.13/31/3/174 C.2 S.0)
(08-CINCY +2' 24-10 07-Cincy +5 38-33 06-CINCY +1' 23-6...SR: Cincinnati 4-2)

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 16

*Pittsburgh 30 - RUTGERS 23—Panther sr. Bill Stull (13 TDP vs. only 3 ints.
TY; 9 TDP vs. 10 ints. in 2008) isn’t the same QB he was last season. With
talented soph WR Jonathan Baldwin (20 ypc!) making the most of his touches,
Stull’s versatile roommate sr. TE Dickerson (7 TDC; recruited as RB, also
played WR & LB prior to TY) finally flourishing, and true frosh RB Lewis (738 YR
& 8 TDs) ranking among nation’s top newcomers, Pitt offense likely to strike
paydirt more often than limited Rutgers’ attack behind still-learning true frosh
QB Savage. CABLE TV—ESPN
(08-Rutgers 54-PITT 34...20-20 P.34/138 R.30/71 R.15/24/1/371 P.22/34/1/348 R.0 P.1)
(08-Rutgers +9' 54-34 07-RUTGERS -12 20-16 06-Rutgers +6' 20-10...SR: Pittsburgh 19-7)

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 17

Texas 26 - Oklahoma 20—Payback for both teams—OU for LY’s loss vs.
UT, and the Longhorns for then having to watch the Sooners still advance to the
BCS title game! Oklahoma has a big edge on the ground TY with its veteran
DeMarco Murray (381 YR) & Chris Brown (363 YR) RB duo vs. a Texas team
that mushed for only 46 YR last week vs. Colorado. But the Sooner offense
lacks its usual dynamite with TE Jermaine Gresham out, WR Ryan Broyles
(shoulder) likely out, and QB Sam Bradford (shoulder) reaching for LY’s
Heisman form. (at Dallas, Tx) TV—ABC
(08-Texas 45-Okla. 35...T.23-20 T.35/161 O.26/48 O.28/41/2/387 T.28/35/0/277 T.0 O.0)
(08-Texas +6' 45-35 07-Okla. -12 28-21 06-Texas -3' 28-10 all at Dallas...SR: Texas 58-40-5)

BOSTON COLLEGE 34 - North Carolina State 26—While Eagles were
plucked, stuffed & roasted in road trips to Clemson & Virginia Tech TY, they’ve
soared to 9 victories in their last 10 at home. N.C. State secondary, which has
been strafed by 820YP & 8 TDP in just last two games, too vulnerable to
envision happy homecoming for former BC mentor & current Wolfpack HC
O’Brien. TV-ABC
(08-Bos. Col. 38-NCS 31...B.28-15 B.30/150 N.22/35 B.34/51/1/428 N.19/33/0/218 B.2 N.0)
(08-Bc -8 38-31 07-BC -13' 37-17 06-NCS +6' 17-15...SR: Boston College 4-2)

Ohio State 41 - PURDUE 17—Purdue continued its comedy of errors
last week against Minnesota, as 3 more turnovers spelled doom once again for
the Boilermakers. Conversely, Ohio State has covered 5 straight games and
has allowed just 9 ppg in the last 4, and Buckeyes have fought through injuries
along the way. Purdue attack has mustered just 10 pts. last 2 in series, and
OSU’s 7th-ranked defense will be Boiler QB Elliott’s toughest test to date.
Listing Purdue has dropped 5 straight.
(08-OHIO ST. 16-Purdue 3...P.18-14 O.42/125 P.26/70 P.23/51/1/228 O.10/14/0/97 O.0 P.1)
(08-OHIO ST. -19 16-3 07-Ohio St. -7 23-7...SR: Ohio State 37-12-2)

Bowling Green 38 - BALL STATE 27—Despite eking out a win last week at
Kent, can’t hide fact that shoddy Falcon defense and the worst ground attack in
the country have spurred a 4-game BG spread losing streak. However, Falcon
QB Sheehan has thrown for 895 yards and 6 TDs with just 1 int. in last two
games, and Ball State HC Stan Parrish has now lost 36 straight games overall
as a head coach! Need double digits to back Cardinal side relying heavily on
production from frosh QB Page (471 YP, 4 TDP L2).
(DNP...SR: Bowling Green 19-8-1)

MICHIGAN STATE 28 - Northwestern 27—MSU fortunes clouded by
injuries to both QBs (Cousins, ankle injury vs. Michigan; Nichol, elbow vs.
Illinois), as Spartans used Cousins only in the last series as an emergency
measure. The dog is undefeated in Northwestern’s games this season, and
Wildcats have covered last 4 in East Lansing. Emergence of sr. WR
Markshausen (30 catches last 4 games) gives NU QB Kafka a quality target. If
Wildcat RB Simmons can regain his form after returning to limited duty last
week, look for Northwestern to hang around. TV—ESPN2
(08-Msu 37-NSTRN. 20...N.27-18 N.32/176 M.43/128 N.34/61/2/283 M.14/20/0/169 M.0 N.1)
(08-Msu -2 37-20 07-Nwu +16 48-41 (OT) 06-Msu -8 41-38...SR: Michigan State 33-16)

WISCONSIN 24 - Iowa 20—Revenge game for Wisconsin, and Badgers will
be in front of a raucous homecoming crowd. No shame in Wiscy stubbing its toe
at Ohio State, and if QB Tolzien can avoid interceptions that cost him in
Columbus (2 returned for scores), Badgers capable of bouncing back. Iowa off
to 6-0 start, but Hawkeye QB Stanzi has had turnover problems of his own,
throwing at least 1 int. in five straight games. Wisconsin power running game
might find going a bit easier this week. TV-ESPN
(08-IOWA 38-Wis. 16...W.19-17 I.34/254 W.34/158 W.21/41/3/251 I.12/20/0/121 I.0 W.0)
(08-IOWA -4 38-16 07-WIS. -7' 17-13 06-Wis. -1' 24-21...SR: EVEN 41-41-2)

*Virginia 31 - MARYLAND 22—With pieces apparently starting to fall into
place for new Virginia o.c. Brandon (former Bowling Green HC) and his spread
attack, Cav mentor Groh feeling a little less heat in Charlottesville. Can’t say
same for besieged Maryland HC Friedgen, whose Terps (allowed at least 32
points in 5 of first 6 games) trailed by 25 after 3 Qs at Wake last week before
sneaking in “back door.” TV-ESPN
(08-VA. 31-Mary. 0...V.26-13 V.41/201 M.21/79 V.25/34/0/226 M.20/34/1/223 V.0 M.1)
(08-VA. +13 31-0 07-Va. +4 18-17 06-Mary. -3' 28-26...SR: Maryland 41-30-2)

Wake Forest 26 - CLEMSON 21—Substantial edge to Clemson’s
speedy, swarming stop unit. But Wake has an even bigger advantage at QB,
as Tigers’ RS frosh Parker (only 49%) literally & figuratively not in same class
as Deacons’ sizzling sr. signal-caller Skinner, a 4-year starter who has 1364 YP
& 12 TDP in just last 4 games! Well-prepared Wake HC Grobe a solid 16-9 vs.
spread last 25 as dog.
(08-W. FOR. 12-Clem. 7...W.21-10 W.46/156 C.23/21 W.22/36/0/186 C.15/35/1/177 W.0 C.0)
(08-WFU -1' 12-7 07-CLEM. -9' 44-10 06-Clem. -16 27-17...SR: Clemson 56-17-1)

*IOWA STATE 25 - Baylor 17—Bear in mind that ISU is only 2-7 its last 9
when favored, and that Cyclones have lost 11 straight Big XII games. However,
the ISU offense—led by fourth-year QB Austen Arnaud & emerging jr. RB Alex
Robinson (654 YR)—is developing nicely under o.c. Tom Sherman (directed
Rice’s prolific attack the L2Ys). Baylor a different team without the sprinter
speed of injured QB Robert Griffin.
(08-BAYLOR 38-Iowa St. 10...B.27-16 B.50/147 I.18/81 B.22/26/0/288 I.21/41/1/176 B.0 I.0)
(08-BAYLOR -4' 38-10...SR: EVEN 4-4)

*MISSISSIPPI 37 - Uab 7—After getting booed by some of the school-record
62,657 fans in sloppy (5 TOs) 22-3 Oxford loss vs. Bama, expect Ole Miss to
vent frustration vs. beatable, one-dimensional UAB, outscored 38-6 in 1st H of
its two non-covering road losses TY. Rebel QB Snead (career-high 4 ints. vs.
Tide) should quickly regain his mojo vs. soft Blazer 2ndary allowing 309 ypg
passing, while run-happy QB Webb (570 YR) gets tangled up by Ole Miss’
tenacious front 7 (13 ppg, only 3 rush TDs). (FIRST MEETING)

Georgia 19 - VANDERBILT 16—While both SEC East squads
disappointing, would lean to defensively-superior Vandy (16 ppg; 14 takeways),
which has played UGA tough last few seasons (3 straight covers). Bulldogs
frustrated QB Cox says, “It’s embarrassing. We are not doing the things we
need to do as players.” Not good. If ‘Dores erratic QB L. Smith can hit some
timely passes vs. UGA’s soft 2ndary (11th in SEC), Vandy’s competent ground
game (190 ypg) maintains some ball control vs. yielding Dawg defense (31 ppg)
still forcing few mistakes (only 5 takeways TY).
(08-GA. 24-Vandy 14...G.25-14 G.40/231 V.26/114 G.13/23/2/194 V.16/32/2/131 G.0 V.0)
(08-GA. -15 24-14 07-Ga. -7 20-17 06-Vandy +14 24-22...SR: Georgia 49-18-2)

*AUBURN 38 - Kentucky 17—Though highly-flying Auburn returned to earth
with a thud in 44-23 setback at Arkansas, expect chemistry-rich Tigers to roar
back vs. hurting UK (0-3 in East), which might be missing injured vet QB
Hartline (see Special Ticker). Doubt Hartline or jr. backup Fidler keeps pace
with Auburn’s inventive, well-balanced attack (38 ppg; 13 rushing, 13 passing
TDs) exploiting a banged-up UK 2ndary. Watch Tigers dynamic RB duo of Tate
(724 YR, 6.1 ypc) & McCalebb (439 YR, 6.0 ypc) run wild vs. Cats permissive
run defense (SEC-worst 178 ypg.) TV-ESPN (DNP...SR: Auburn 24-5-1)

TEMPLE 26- Army 12—Army finally beat a BCS squad for the 1st time since
2006 in ugly 16-13 OT victory vs. Vandy in West Point. But doubt Cadets’ upset
win has much carry-over effect vs. seasoned Temple, whose stout, disciplined
front 7 well-equipped to keep Army’s mistake-prone option (20 fumbles, only 5
lost) in check once again. Meanwhile, frosh sensation RB Pierce (421 YR last
3 weeks!) continues to shine on ascending Owl squad (3-1 vs. spread) that led
24-13 before Ball State scored on final play week ago.
(08-Temple 35-ARMY 7...A.17-16 A.58/210 T.30/84 T.16/23/1/166 A.6/15/1/74 T.1 A.2)
(08-Temple -7 35-7 07-ARMY -6 37-21...SR: Army 4-2)

Central Michigan 42 - WESTERN MICHIGAN 31—CMU hitting on all
cylinders, as Chippewas have won 5 straight and their defensive line
manhandled the EMU OL last week. CMU QB LeFevour has averaged 355 yds.
total offense the last 3 games while throwing 9 TD passes. Respect Western
Michigan counterpart QB Hiller, but CMU defense (15th in scoring) is much
better than Broncos’ (97th in total “D”).
(08-C. MICH. 38-W. Mich. 28...W.28-22 C.41/176 W.23/49 W.38/53/0/471 C.21/29/1/348 C.0 W.0)
(08-CMU +1' 38-28 07-Cmu -3 34-31 06-CMU -6 31-7...SR: Western Michigan 43-34-2)

AIR FORCE 23 - Wyoming 19—With Wyo’s impressive true frosh QB
Austyn Carta-Samuels (now 3-0 as starter!) performing like a Mountain West
rookie version of Joe Flacco, no reason why coagulating Cowboys can’t trade
points with the Force. Falcon HC Calhoun short of playmakers in his spread
option if exciting soph QB Jefferson remains out or otherwise compromised by
sore ankle (backup Dietz efficient but not explosive in relief).
(08-A. Force 23-WYO. 3...A.12-10 A.63/261 W.33/140 W.8/22/1/76 A.3/4/1/15 A.0 W.4)
(08-Afa +3 23-3 07-AFA -2' 20-12 06-Afa P 31-24...SR: Air Force 25-20-2)

OHIO 32 - Miami-Ohio 10—Ready to lay some points with Ohio, as Bobcats
off back-to-back wins at BGSU and Akron. RedHawk frosh QB Dysert making
errors typical of a first-year player (7 ints. in 3 starts), while well-coached
Bobcats avoiding mistakes and playing solid pass defense (17th in pass
efficiency “D”), while steady QB Theo Scott has 7 TDPs & only 2 ints. in last 4
games. Miami ranks among the worst teams in the country in turnovers, special
teams, and pass protection.
(08-Ohio 41-MIAMI 26...23-23 O.39/326 M.28/92 M.27/43/2/274 O.15/20/1/190 O.1 M.0)
(08-Ohio -2 41-26 07-OHIO -1 38-29 06-Ohio -3 34-24...SR: Miami-Ohio 51-32-2)

Nevada 39 - UTAH STATE 23—Now that Chris Ault’s Nevada Pistol firing
live ammunition once again, Wolf Pack likely to continue embracing longformful
chalk role (24-13 since ‘04). Fire-drill USU attack can possibly convert
some of QB Borel’s busted plays into long-gainers vs. often-reckless Nevada
stop unit, but doubt unrefined Aggies can trade punches for long with notorious
WAC bully now firing on all cylinders.
(08-NEV. 44-Utah St. 17...N.22-16 N.42/284 U.37/71 U.19/39/1/262 N.14/28/2/239 N.2 U.1)
(08-NEVADA -21' 44-17 07-Nevada -7 31-28 06-NEVADA -29 42-0...SR: Nevada 15-4)

PENN STATE 30 - Minnesota 21—Penn State has underachieved this
season at home, dropping 4 spread decisions as chalk. Stats look good for
Nittany Lions (rank 8th defensively; lead Big Ten in total offense), but killer
instinct is missing, as Paterno’s crew has given the ball away a bit more than
past few seasons and the STs have missed graduated speedsters (119th in KO
returns; 99th in punt returns). Minny capable of giving Penn State a scare,
especially if running game can continue to develop. TV-ABC
(06-Penn State -2' 28-27 (OT)...SR: Penn State 6-4)

WEST VIRGINIA 38 - Marshall 16—Improved Thundering Herd has been
mostly overmatched last few meetings against would-be instate rival West
Virginia. Since Mountaineers still possess much more overall speed, look for
recent series history to hold.
(08-W. VA. 27-Marsh. 3...W.26-13 W.42/319 M.25/39 W.22/28/1/174 M.15/37/1/119 W.1 M.2)
(08-WVA -15' 27-3 07-Wva -24' 48-23 06-WVA -22 42-10...SR: West Virginia 8-0)

ALABAMA 29 - South Carolina 16—Though flawless Bama seems to be on
a collision course with Florida for the SEC title, still interested in taking lofty
number with highly-combative 5-1 USC squad (3-0 as dog) that has suffered
only one loss by more than 3 TDs since Oct 1, 2005. Bama QB McElroy not
making many downfield plays, and doubt Bama RBs erupt vs. ‘Cocks
aggressive front 7 (just 129 ypg rushing; 14 sacks). Meanwhile, USC’s mobile
pilot Garcia (61%, 9 TDs, 3 ints.) able to roll out to evade Tide pass rush. Tide
just 9-16 as DD home chalk since ‘04. (DNP...SR: Alabama 11-2)

Southern Cal 27 - NOTRE DAME 10—Wishful Domers suggest this might
be Charlie Weis’ best chance to upend SC since his first Notre Dame edition
came within a whisker of KOing Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush & Co. in 2005. Then
again, Irish won’t have to do much to fare better than Weis’ last three editions,
which haven’t been within earshot of Trojans, who haven’t allowed as much as
a TD vs. ND since the GOP controlled both the House and Senate. Midwest
scouts believe Jimmy Clausen’s early successes have come vs. modest (at
best) stop units, and wonder how he’ll react (especially minus WR Michael
Floyd) to the pressure Pete Carroll’s defense likely to bring. And while SC “O”
still a work in progress, Irish’s poor tackling a real problem if Joe McKnight gets
loose (ask Cal & Ohio State). TV—NBC
(08-S. CAL 38-N. Dame 3...S.22-4 S.33/175 N.27/50 S.23/33/3/274 N.11/22/2/41 S.0 N.1)
(08-USC -32' 38-3 07-Usc -17' 38-0 06-USC -8' 44-24...SR: Notre Dame 42-33-5)

California 18 - UCLA 12—Frankly, we’re not sure either of these two is
capable of escaping the gravity pull of the other. But we’ve at least seen
evidence that recently-misfiring Cal attack (no TDs last 2 games) can do some
serious damage if Jahvid Best can find some room to run and if QB Riley avoids
self-destruct mode. Meanwhile, PK Forbath (13 FGs already) UCLA’s only
consistent threat, and Rick Neuheisel might be back to the drawing board after
pulling RS frosh QB Prince vs. Oregon.
(08-CAL. 41-Ucla 20...C.18-11 C.42/232 U.22/16 U.19/41/4/237 C.11/22/0/153 C.0 U.0)
(08-CAL. -19 41-20 07-UCLA +2' 30-21 06-CAL. -17' 38-24...SR: UCLA 49-29-1)

Houston 49 - TULANE 21—Potent Houston has won & covered 6 straight
meetings with Green Wave, and Tulane just 1-7 vs. spread in its last 8 lined
games overall.
(08-HOU. 42-Tulane 14...H.31-18 H.37/299 T.27/61 H.30/43/1/394 T.20/44/0/207 H.2 T.0)
(08-HOU. -16' 42-14 07-Hou. -14' 34-10 06-HOU. -14 45-7...SR: Houston 10-4)

NEBRASKA 33 - Texas Tech 23—Following backup Steven Sheffield’s
performance in last week’s 66-14 destruction of Kansas State, TT now has two
QBs who have thrown seven TD passes in a game TY (Taylor Potts 7 vs. Rice).
However, the Huskers have one of tougher defenses in the country (second in
points allowed, 13th in total yards), led by a boy named Suh (A-A DT
Ndamukong). HC Pelini says RB Helu’s shoulder injury not serious. TV-ABC
(08-TEX. TECH 37-Neb. 31 (OT)...N.29-16 T.23/137 N.35/114 N.37/45/1/357 T.20/25/0/284 T.0 N.0)
(08-TEXAS TECH -20' 37-31 (OT)...SR: Nebraska 7-3)

*Texas A&M 34 - KANSAS STATE 24—A&M, led by QB Jerrod Johnson (14
TDs, no ints. last 228 throws), has been able to out-score lesser opposition, but
is 0-2 vs. quality foes. Can humiliated K-State (off 66-14 blasting in Lubbock)
steady itself and match points with superior attack? Aggies 4th in nation in total
offense & K-St. pass rush is minimal.
(08-Kansas St. 44-TEX. A&M 30...K.30-25 K.47/215 T.33/125 T.29/41/0/419 K.21/26/0/234 K.1 T.1)
(08-Kansas State -3' 44-30...SR: Texas A&M 8-5)

*GEORGIA TECH 26 - Virginia Tech 24—Go-with vs. go-with. Moneymaking
Ga. Tech mentor Paul Johnson now 11-5 vs. spread since taking over
Yellow Jackets, while venerable Va. Tech HC Beamer and his Hokies have
ripped off 5 straight victories since opening loss to Alabama. In a battle of
ground-oriented contenders, will shade home dog and its more-experienced
backfield, but must note that blossoming VT QB Taylor has 5 first-half TDP in
his last 3 games. TV-ESPN2
(08-VA. TECH 20-Ga. Tech 17...G.19-17 G.50/278 V.46/199 G.5/9/1/109 V.9/15/0/48 V.0 G.2)
(08-VTU -7 20-17 07-Vtu +2' 27-3 06-Gtu +9' 38-27...SR: Virginia Tech 4-2)

*OKLAHOMA STATE 31 - Missouri 26—Absence of suspended big-play
WR Dez Bryant a big relief to the rebuilt Missouri defense, which already has its
hands full with QB Zac Robinson and OSU’s plethora of quality RBs. If the
Cowboy defense (11 sacks TY) can’t put pressure on Tiger QB Gabbert (11 TDs
overall; two key ints. in the rain vs. Nebraska last week), this one could be a
shootout. TV-ESPN2
(08-Okla. St. 28-MO. 23...M.28-23 O.44/187 M.18/64 M.39/52/3/390 O.19/28/1/215 O.2 M.0)
(08-Oklahoma State +14 28-23...SR: Missouri 27-22)

EAST CAROLINA 37 - Rice 13—Owls’ once-dangerous offense (17 points
or fewer in 4 of last 5 games) now as feckless as their downtrodden defense.
Far from eager to lay big points with East Carolina (4-13 last 17 vs. spread!),
however, although Pirates at least able to move ball on ground a little bit with sr.
RB Lindsay (144 YR last week).
(06-RICE +2' 18-17...SR: EVEN 1-1)

BUFFALO 30 - Akron 13—Would rather trust dynamic Buffalo HC Gill’s
ability to rally his Bulls down the stretch than ask slumping Akron (lost 3 straight
vs. number) to get off the mat. Bulls have covered 4 straight in the series, and
Buffalo attack has gotten a major boost from jr. RB Ike Nduka (303 YR, 2 scores
last 2 games).
(08-Buf. 43-AKRON 40 (OT)...B.27-20 B.57/224 A.34/179 A.20/38/0/295 B.27/39/0/252 B.0 A.2)
(08-Buf. +3' 43-40 (OT) 07-BUF. -1 26-10 06-AKRON -17 31-16...SR: Akron 8-2)

TCU 34 - Colorado State 10—Can’t fault CSU’s effort in current 3-game
losing streak. But if Rams lose their edge even slightly, consequences could be
grim vs. TCU bunch that’s still very much in “BCS Buster” frame. Dick Bumpas’
4-2-5 Frog stop units have stonewalled CSU in recent meetings, and revved-up
TCU pass rush might be a bad match for gutsy but slow-footed Ram QB
Stucker. Note Frogs 21-5 last 26 as Fort Worth chalk.
(08-Tcu 13-COLO. ST. 7...T.15-14 T.46/151 C.28/11 C.17/35/2/188 T.16/26/1/166 T.1 C.1)
(08-Tcu -16 13-7 07-TCU -10 24-12 06-Tcu -9' 45-14...SR: TCU 5-1)

LOUISIANA TECH 38 - New Mexico State 13—Style points not likely to get
NMSU invited to a gridiron version of Dancing With The Stars, although HC
Walker’s near-suicidal resolve to establish punishing infantry diversion paying
occasional dividends for Ags. Still, offensive competence has to count for
something, and, if so, much prefer better-balanced La Tech. Bulldogs 5-1 vs.
line last 6 at Joe Aillet Stadium.
(08-La. Tech 35-NMS 31...N.27-15 L.35/226 N.24/37 N.45/60/0/486 L.12/20/0/132 L.0 N.1)
(08-Tech -6' 35-31 07-TECH -7' 22-21 06-NMS -12' 50-23...SR: EVEN 4-4)

Kent State 27 - EASTERN MICHIGAN 19—EMU has dropped 10 of last 11
SU, and the way Eagles got pushed around against rival Central Michigan last
week, want no part of Ron English’s winless crew unless getting more than a
few points. Kent at least knows what a win looks like, and if Flashes can pick
themselves up off the floor after blowing 2-TD lead in final 5 minutes against
Bowling Green last week, they should record first MAC road win of the season
(had 2 LY). (06-KENT STATE -11' 14-6...SR: Kent State 14-13)

IDAHO 36 - Hawaii 17—We’re not sure Greg McMackin is ready to call iconic
play-by-play man Jim Leahey (whose eligibility is probably exhausted anyway)
out of broadcast booth to help Hawaii QB situation that has turned into crisis spot
with starter Alexander sidelined for year and next-best option Rausch (thumb)
likely on shelf another week. But expect no sympathy from red-hot (5-1SU, 6-
0 vs. line!) Idaho bunch itching to atone for series of one-sided beatings vs. much
better Warrior teams in recent years.
(08-HAWAII 49-Idaho 17...H.18-16 H.28/70 I.40/49 H.17/29/0/286 I.20/33/3/170 H.1 I.1)
(08-HAWAII -24 49-17 07-Hawaii -24' 48-20 06-HAWAII -26' 68-10...SR: Hawaii 8-1)

Byu 45 - SAN DIEGO STATE 17—Since BYU (already scored 54 at Tulane
and 59 at UNLV) has displayed an unmistakable mean streak this season, not
too concerned about laying hefty price at Qualcomm. SDSU rebuilding project
progressing slowly under Brady Hoke, and Aztec “O” can’t trade points with Max
Hall, especially after Cougs treated LY’s meeting at Provo like a scrimmage
when Hall completed 25 of 30 in 41-12 BYU romp.
(08-BYU 41-Sdsu 12...18-18 S.28/120 B.37/104 B.25/30/0/317 S.21/37/1/160 B.1 S.3)
(08-BYU -36' 41-12 07-Byu -16 48-27 06-BYU -28 47-17...SR: BYU 25-7-1)

*Stanford 26 - ARIZONA 22—We wouldn’t have wished upon our
worst enemy a seat next to uberintense Arizona HC Mike Stoops on the flight
home from Seattle after his Cats gifted a last-minute win to U-Dub last week.
But series history suggests Stanford should provide good value in Tucson,
where the Tree has covered last four visits. Don’t expect Cardinal to fall way
behind early as it did last week at Corvallis. Powerful RB Gerhart provides
proper complement for quickly-maturing RS frosh QB Luck.
(08-STAN. 24-Ariz. 23...S.21-16 S.48/286 A.23/77 A.22/34/0/259 S.16/24/2/152 S.1 A.0)
(08-STAN. +6' 24-23 07-Stan. +13 21-20 06-Ariz. -3' 20-7...SR: Arizona 13-11)

*INDIANA 28 - Illinois 20—Although Indiana’s defense has been leaking
last three games (116 pts. allowed), it’s homecoming in Bloomington, and the
Hoosiers have covered 5 straight such affairs. Illinois one of the big
disappointments of the season, as pass attack has gone from tops in the Big
Ten last season to 10th in ‘09. Ron Zook’s attempt to shake things up offensively
against Mich. St. by moving to backup Eddie McGee didn’t work. Illini 0-4 SU
& vs. spread in games vs. BCS teams, outscored 126-40!
(08-ILL. 55-Ind. 13...Il.27-18 Il.44/292 In.44/141 Il.16/22/0/271 In.12/29/0/172 Il.1 In.2)
(08-ILL. -15' 55-13 07-Ill. -2' 27-14 06-Ind. +8 34-32...SR: Illinois 43-20-3)

*SOUTHERN MISS 37 - Memphis 19—Much-maligned Memphis mentor
West was able to a coax winning home effort out of Tigers vs. UTEP last week.
Still, while USM offense not as dynamic without injured spread wizard Austin
Davis at trigger, Golden Eagle defense capable of slowing Memphis star RB
Steele (240 YR in win over Miners).
(08-MEMP. 36-S. Miss 30...M.30-19 M.51/285 S.28/230 M.18/28/1/231 S.21/40/1/186 M.1 S.0)
(08-MEMP. +4 36-30 07-Memp. +16' 29-26 06-Usm -7 42-21...SR: Southern Miss 37-21-1)

TOLEDO 34 - Northern Illinois 27—If UT’s vet QB Opelt available (shoulder
injury vs. WMU; check status), would shade resilient Rockets, who’ve covered
4 straight following SU loss. Embarrassed UT not only out atone for
emotionally-flat 58-26 thrashing vs. WMU last week, but Rockets itching to
avenge 38-7 debacle at DeKalb LY. Believe UT’s 6-2 frosh QB Dantin (17 of 28
for 160 no. ints.) capable of hurting Huskies youthful 2ndary.
(08-N. ILL. 38-Toledo 7...N.24-13 N.45/220 T.22/80 N.12/16/0/173 T.17/24/1/149 N.0 T.2)
(08-NIU -8' 38-7 07-TOLEDO -3' 70-21 06-Toledo +12 17-13...SR: Toledo 28-8)

CONNECTICUT 30 - Louisville 10—Besieged Louisville HC Kragthorpe &
his Cards feeling better about themselves after home win over Southern Miss.
But, as long as well-coached UConn can shrug off last week’s disappointing
come-from-ahead loss at Pitt, Huskies have run game & “D” to hammer out
convincing victory at the Rentsch.
(08-Conn. 26-LVL. 21...L.23-18 L.41/261 C.42/157 L.17/30/2/247 C.10/20/0/122 C.1 L.1)
(08-Conn. +3' 26-21 07-CONN. +3 21-17 06-LVL. -28' 48-17...SR: Louisville 3-2)

*Kansas 24 - COLORADO 19—Have few doubts about the KU offense (40.6
ppg), led by QB Todd Reesing (69.3%, 13 TDs, 3 ints.). But defense (32 ppg
last two) a concern. And it should be noted that 1-4 Colorado has faced a pretty
tough schedule (three on the road, two of them at West Virginia, Texas). QB
change to soph Tyler Hansen imminent in Boulder. Longhorns needed three
return TDs to put away Buffs last week.
(08-KANSAS 30-Colo. 14...K.22-16 K.40/151 C.37/86 K.27/34/0/256 C.13/30/2/147 K.0 C.0)
(08-KANSAS -14 30-14 07-Kansas -3' 19-14 06-KANSAS -2 20-15...SR: Colorado 41-24-3)

*Miami-Florida 28 - UCF 19—Resurgent Golden Knights are 4-0 vs. spread
TY, and rabid home crowd sure to be in full froth for Miami’s visit to Bright House
Networks Stadium, where ambitious UCF is 9-4-1 vs. spread since that oncampus
facility opened in 2007. Hurricanes’ scintillating soph signal-caller Harris is top gun
on the field (by far), but Knight attack now more productive with Wake transfer sr. Hodges at QB.
(08-MIAMI 20-Ucf 14...M.12-10 M.43/128 U.27/4 M.12/25/3/88 U.11/37/0/74 M.0 U.1)
(08-MIAMI-FLORIDA -17 20-14...SR: Miami-Florida 1-0)

FLORIDA 41 - Arkansas 10—With Arkansas gaining the attention of topranked
Florida (and the oddsmakers) following 44-23 romp vs. Auburn,
compelled to “lay it” with defensively-smothering Gator squad (microscopic 6.4
ppg), now 12-1 vs spread last 13 games. Hogs strong-armed, lanky 6-7 QB
Mallett, who struggled vs. Bama 2ndary (16 of 41, 1 TD), has similar stats vs.
Gators, who excel in man-to-man coverage (only 1 TDP, 7 ints.). Even if he’s not
100%, UF’s “spiritual” leader Tebow figures to shred permissive Arkansas “D”
(SEC-worst 399 ypg). TV-CBS
(08-Fla. 38-ARK. 7...F.25-20 F.38/278 A.25/141 F.19/29/1/236 A.24/38/1/220 F.0 A.1)
(08-Fla. -25' 38-7 06-Fla. -2' 38-28 at Atlanta...SR: Florida 7-1)

*Navy 38 - SMU 24—Middies a reliable road warrior, and they love playing in
Texas, covering 8 of their last 9 regular-season trips to Lone Star State. Navy
completely eschewed the pass in easy victory over Mustangs at Annapolis last
season, and see little reason to believe Mids can’t once again simply batter SMU
into submission with their relentless ground onslaught.
(08-NAVY 34-Smu 7...N.23-8 N.77/404 S.11/M13 S.16/28/1/157 N.0/0/0/0 N.1 S.0)
(08-NAVY -12' 34-7...SR: SMU 7-6)

*Washington 31- ARIZONA STATE 27—We’ll assume Dennis Erickson will
remind his ASU troops that sleepwalking as they did last week at Wazzu (when
guilty of 6 TOs and allowing a 99-yard TD pass!) will have more serious
consequences vs. U-Dub squad that’s in revenge mode after losing and failing
to cover last 5 in series. Huskies a meaner canine these days, especially with
Jake Locker “coached up” nicely by new HC Sarkisian.
(08-Asu 39-WASH. 19...A.19-16 A.40/182 W.28/52 W.15/42/2/227 A.22/31/0/218 A.1 W.1)
(08-Asu -14 39-19 07-ASU -11' 44-20 06-Asu -1' 26-23 (OT)...SR: Washington 15-13)

*Utah 38 - UNLV 16—Unless the Nobel Foundation steps in with an
unexpected award, Mike Sanford’s long-term job prospects not looking too good
in Vegas. Especially with Rebels qualifying for FEMA relief after allowing almost
three-quarters of a mile in recent losses vs. Nevada & BYU. Utah’s slashing jr.
RB Wide (231 YR last 2) appears serviceable in absence of workhorse RB
Asiata, and playmaking juco QB Cain becoming more comfy piloting Ute attack.
(08-UTA. 42-Unlv 21...Ut.22-15 Ut.36/225 Un.35/129 Ut.16/25/1/215 Un.19/30/0/159 Ut.0 Un.0)
(08-UTAH -21' 42-21 07-UNLV +8 27-0 06-UTAH -21' 45-23...SR: Utah 12-2)

*FRESNO STATE 36 - San Jose State 11—With prospects of uncovering an
effective infantry diversion about as unlikely as Keith Olbermann moving to the
Fox News Channel, not encouraged with immediate prospects of onedimensional
San Jose. Especially against now-confident Fresno and nation’s
leading rusher Matthews (148 ypg), licking his chops in anticipation of
bludgeoning soft Spartan rush “D” allowing hefty 6.4 ypc. Note San Jose on 1-
8 spread fade last 9 on board.
(08-Fresno St. 24-SJS 10...F.17-16 F.43/171 S.31/M5 S.21/37/0/205 F.5/18/1/71 F.2 S.1)
(08-Fsu -3' 24-10 07-FSU -13 30-0 06-SJS -4 24-14...SR: Fresno State 37-33-3)

ADDED GAMES

*La.-Lafayette 32 - WESTERN KENTUCKY 28—With Ragin’ Cajuns off
draining come-from-behind home win over North Texas, points might work with
desperate Hilltopper squad seeking to snap 13-game losing streak. WKU
offense more formidable since RS frosh QB Jakes took helm of attack.
(FIRST MEETING)

*Troy 35 - FLORIDA INTL. 14—FIU’s comfy win at WKU certainly not
a “buy” signal after Hilltoppers gouged Golden Panther “D” for 263 YR. But
Troy’s “buy” flashing more brightly after three straight wins and covers vs.
competent foes, and FIU’s chronic sloppy tackling likely to be exploited by
smooth-functioning Trojan spread now diversifying (RB Parker 2 TDs out of
“Wildcat” vs. MTSU!).
(08-TROY 33-Fla. Intl. 23...T.20-15 T.40/137 F.36/83 F.22/34/1/266 T.19/29/0/255 T.0 F.2)
(08-TROY -10 33-23 07-Troy -18' 34-16 06-Troy -10' 26-13...SR: Troy 5-0)

*Florida Atlantic 30 - NORTH TEXAS 27—After watching a succession of
hair-raisers between mid-level Sun Belt entries, compelled to take any available
points with Schnellenberger’s win-hungry FAU. Chalk role still foreign to UNT,
and last week’s 3 picks vs. ULL indicate Mean Green RS frosh QB Dodge not a
finished product. FAU QB Rusty Smith capable of firing deciding scoring shots.
(08-FAU 46-N. Texas 13...F.24-15 F.41/256 N.37/122 F.17/28/2/251 N.14/24/2/133 F.1 N.2)
(08-FAU -22' 46-13 07-Fau -6' 30-20 06-Fau +5 17-16...SR: Florida Atlantic 5-0)

Mississippi State 28 - MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE 20—With developing
MSU dramatically dropping in class, support Bulldog squad owning huge RB
edge with slashing Dixon (561 YR, 5.2 ypc) & speedy Ducre. Blue Raider o.c.
Franklin familiar with MSU as Auburn o.c. LY, but he failed to reach paydirt in
ugly 3-2 win. Sure, Sun Belt rep MTSU jacked-up to be hosting an SEC foe for
the 1st time, but Raiders just 3-18 vs. the talent-rich conference (and all 3 wins
vs. nearby Vandy). TV-ESPNU
(08-MSU 31-Mts 22...Mt.18-17 Ms.39/169 Mt.29/80 Mt.25/43/0/268 Ms.17/25/0/197 Ms.0 Mt.0)
(08-MISSISSIPPI STATE -11' 31-22...SR: Mississippi State 3-0)

TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK

COLLEGE RELEASES

IDAHO
Can you guess the best-performing pointspread team in the
nation this season? It’s Idaho, on a thundering 6-game cover
streak out of the blocks in ‘09 and looking to extend that mark to 7
when hosting a compromised Hawaii at the hostile Kibbie Dome in
Saturday WAC action. The Vandals’ pointspread uptick actually
goes back to late last season, with Idaho now having covered an
impressive 9 of its last 10 on the board. Meanwhile, the fading
Warriors have been popped in their last two outings, outscored by
a whopping 46 points in those two defeats combined, contributing
to their poor current -15.50 “AFS” (Away from Spread) mark.

NAVY
There’s no place like...Texas for the Navy Midshipmen in
recent years. Indeed, the Annapolis bunch has covered 8 of its last
9 regular-season visits to the Lone Star State, and looks to make it
9 of 10 when traveling to the swanky area of Dallas for a Saturday
night date vs. SMU. The Mids, a lopsided 63-14 winner in Houston
last Saturday night against Rice, have also been flourishing for
several years as a road favorite, taking care of business to the tune
of a 12-4 spread mark their last 16 as road chalk. Navy also
currently owns one of the nation’s top “AFS” (Away From
Spread) marks at an impressive +19.25 its last two games. Also
note that the Mustangs have dropped 10 of their last 17 spread
decisions at Ford Stadium and have covered just 1 of their last 7 on
the heels of a straight-up win.

FRESNO STATE
Series trends paint a pretty bleak picture for San Jose State as it
motors down the Central Valley for a Saturday night WAC clash at
Bulldog Stadium vs. hot Fresno State. It’s been wins and covers
in five of the last six series meetings for the Bulldogs, who have
really battered the Spartans lately at the “Dog House,” crushing the
Spartans in their last three visits by a combined 116-14 score.
Fresno has also posted a solid +11.75 “AFS” (Away From
Spread) number its last two games. Note that San Jose’s
pointspread fortunes have also taken a turn for the worse, with the
Spartans just 1-8 vs. the number their last nine on the board.

TROY
The “Beast of the Belt” is back, and Troy looks to continue its
recent march through the conference in its Saturday night date in
Miami at Florida International. Note that the Trojans continue to offer
excellent pointspread value, now standing 25-14 vs. the number
their last 39 in the board. Troy has also won and covered
impressively its last three outings, and has covered 9 of its last 11
on the Sun Belt trail. The Trojans have also posted a notable +11.75
“AFS” (Away From Spread) mark their last two games.

POINTWISE

COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
FRESNO STATE over San Jose State RATING: 1
SO CALIFORNIA over Notre Dame RATING: 1
ALABAMA over South Carolina RATING: 2
AIR FORCE over Wyoming RATING: 3
PENN STATE over Minnesota RATING: 4
LA TECH over New Mexico State RATING: 4
TEXAS A&M over Kansas State RATING: 5
WAKE FOREST over Clemson RATING: 5

WEDNESDAY

Boise State 38 - TULSA 30 - (8:00 - ESPN) -- Don't like this one. Broncos seem
invincible, behind QB Moore (12/2), & a defense which ranks 14th in scoring. Are
+88½ pts ATS away in '08 & '09, to boot. But 'Canes have scored 56, 56, 63, 77,
49, 56 pts in their last 6 lined HGs, & QB Kinne is one of the better signalcallers.

THURSDAY

Cincinnati 22 - SOUTH FLORIDA 20 - (7:45 - ESPN) -- Pair of perfect squads
here. First lined HG for Bulls, who have played superbly, following the loss of QB
Grothe. Have been killed by the TO in series (Wise Points), & with Cincy in off 10
sack showing, can't afford repeat. 'Cat QB Pike at 67% (13/3), & Cincy "D solid.

FRIDAY

Pittsburgh 33 - RUTGERS 24 - (8:00 - ESPN) -- Pitt LW: largest comeback win
in Wannstedt's 5 seasons. Down 15, with 0:12 left in 3rd, winning on final play vs
UConn. Panthers nicely balanced (Lewis: 158 RYs LW), led by QB Stull. RU QB
Savage is back, but check just 139 RYpg in lined gms for Knights. Guest series.

SATURDAY

Oklahoma 34 - Texas 31 - (12:00 - ABC - @ Dallas) -- Can anyone explain just
46 RYs for 'Horns vs Colo's 101st run "D"? Anyway, McCoy still brilliant (70%
for the yr): 32-of-39 LW. Bradford back for Okies (27-of-47 with 6 drops vs
Baylor) & Sooners have 7th best run "D" in land. A quadruple OU revenge call.
North Carolina State 24 - BOSTON COLLEGE 22 - (3:30) -- We steer clear of
this one. Just 10 FDs (none in 1st half) & 45 RYs for Eagles at VaTech. Own
93rd rated "O". 'Pack in off 49-28 loss to Duke (Imps' 1st ACC road win in 21
games), but has allowed only 56 RYpg last 3 wks, & at 28 ppg last 9 ACC tilts.

Ohio State 33 - PURDUE 15 - (12:00) -- No, the stats of LW's OhioSt/Wisky gm
not a misprint. Completely dominated by Badgers (8 FDs), only to score 3 TDs
off 2 INTs & a KO return. Still a 799-231 RY edge last 4 outings. Boilers off 5
wrenching losses (120-yd edge LW). Can't run, but QB Elliott: 612 PYs last 2.

Bowling Green 36 - BALL STATE 24 - (12:00) -- Six straight losses for BallSt.
Can't run, nor contain the run. BG can't take advantage, with its 931-230 RY
deficit last 4 wks, but note QB Sheehan off school-record 44-of-63 for 505 yds.

MICHIGAN STATE 33 - Northwestern 30 - (12:00 - ESPN2) -- Nice balance for
Spartans last 2 wks: 195 RYpg, 200 PYpg (21st ranked "O"). 'Cats, as usual,
not about to be trusted in fav role, needing 4 takeaways to get by hapless (0-6)
Miami-Ohio. No running, but QB Kafka at 69%, & dog is 24-8 ATS in NW tilts.

WISCONSIN 31 - Iowa 27 - (12:00) -- Oh, what a horrible setback for Badgers
LW: 42:47-17:13 time, 22-8 FD, & 368-184 TY edges, but 31-13 loss. Surely
move it behind Tolzien & Clay, & if not completely deflated, revenge here is far
from impossible. Iowa has won 10 straight, but yet to reach 200 RYs. Upset.

Virginia 30 - MARYLAND 20 - (4:00) -- Cavs in off largest output in 5 yrs: 536
yds, after entering at just 272 ypg. And check a 2.3 ypr "D" last 2 wks. Terps
trailed Wake 42-17 in 4th, but somehow covered. Ceding 35.1 ppg last 8 LGs.

Wake Forest 27 - CLEMSON 22 - (12:00) -- Just 2 offensive TDs for Tigers in
their last 3 games, ranking lowly 102nd in total "O". Check mere 81 RYs in loss
to MD (missed 2 late FGs). Deacon QB Skinner: 360 PYs & career-best 4 TD
passes vs Terps (TDs in first 5 possessions). Dog 26-16 ATS in Wake games.

IOWA STATE 34 - Baylor 24 - (7:00) -- Just 6 RYs for Bears, without Griffin,
altho his replacement (Florence) was decent (220 PYs). Cycs allowing 35 ppg
in last 14 LGs, but slowly becoming an overland force (219 RYs vs Kansas' #3
rushing "D") topping 200 RYs 5-of-6 gms thus far (Robinson: 652 yds). Cycs.

MISSISSIPPI 38 - Uab 10 - (7:00) -- Reb fall continues. Snead: 7 INTs last 2 wks
& just 46-of-102 last 3 games, with McCuster a non-factor. Chance to finally
do something, despite Uabs' upset of SoMiss (222-111 RY edge & 23-pt cover).

Georgia 19 - VANDERBILT 16 - (12:20) -- Talk about sinking. No "O" TDs for
'Dawgs in 45-19 loss at Tenn, 12 FDpg last 2 wks, & 450 yd deficit vs TexTech), & should be 0-4 SU in
lined affairs. Ag QB Johnson: another 273 PYs in tight loss to OklaSt, & now
at 1,578 for the season (14 TDs, no INTs): 228 straight without a pick. Lay it!

GEORGIA TECH 27 - Virginia Tech 25 - (6:00) -- Jackets never punted in their
barnburning win at FlaSt (401 RYs), behind Nesbitt & Dwyer. Have now topped
300 RYs 4 times TY. Contrast that with Hokies allowing 59, 38, & 45 RYs last
3 wks, while averaging 219. And check Taylor at 8/1 for the season. To wire.

Missouri 24 - OKLAHOMA STATE 22 - (9:15) -- Have to wonder how far 'Pokes
can go without services of Bryant & Hunter. Winning, but minus 52½ pts ATS
last 3 LGs. Tigs in off 1st loss, with that 27-0 4th quarter deficit vs Nebraska.
Gabbert was 11/0 entering that one, but 0/2, with 'Husker TDs off both. Tight.

EAST CAROLINA 33 - Rice 24 - (3:30) -- Pirates had 5-game C-USA run snapped
at Smu, but run "O" bit improved, with 144 yds from Lindsay vs Ponies. Owls
allowing 44.3 ppg TY, & in off 471-21 RY deficit. But Pirates not to be trusted.

BUFFALO 45 - Akron 24 - (3:30) -- Without QB Jacquemain, Zips are 0-3 both
SU & ATS (by 41 pts), altho they did outstat OhioU LW. Bull RB Nduka: 303
yds in his first 2 starts. Nicely complemented by QB Maynard. UB is the play.

TCU 41 - Colorado State 13 - (4:00) -- Have high regard for Rams, who could
easily be 5-1 SU. Off pair of wrenching losses, with 2-of-3 Stucker INTs turned
into TDs in loss to Utah. Frogs turned it over twice inside AF 10 LW, failing to
cover on final play, despite 23-14 FD edge. Still +134½ pts ATS in last 21 tilts.

LOUISIANA TECH 45 - New Mexico State 14 - (4:00) -- From a 359-RY edge to
a 218-RY deficit in a wk, for Tech, moving the host to 14-2 ATS (by 11, 11, 16,
12½ TY). Ags got by UtahSt, but were totally dominated. Are #105 in run "O".

Kent State 31 - EASTERN MICHIGAN 24 - (4:00) -- Pair of solid squads here.
Entered LW tied at 111th in scoring "O". Kent allowed 505 PYs in loss to BG
(most ever ceded by Flashes), while EM allowing 39 ppg in last 19 LGs. Pass.

IDAHO 34 - Hawaii 13 - (5:00) -- Nicely balanced Vandals (>200 RYs & PYs 2 of
last 3), have posted 5 upsets TY, & perfect 6-0 ATS. 'Bows down to 3rd string
QBing (Moniz). Trailed Fresno 42-3 in 4th, ranking 118 & 102 in run "O" & "D".

Byu 47 - SAN DIEGO STATE 20 - (6:00) -- Coogs have scored 136 pts in their 3
gms since loss to FlaSt, & despite TCU on deck, with be fully focused behind
leadership of Hall & Unga (320 PYs & 149 RYs LW). Aztecs check in at just
60.3 RYpg in LGs, & QB Lindley just 7-of-27 vs NMexSt. Coogs are smoking.

ARIZONA 31 - Stanford 21 - (7:30) -- 'Cats in off pair of road heartstoppers. Led
Washington, 33-21, with 3 minutes left, but lost on deflected INT return. QB
Foles LW: 384 PYs, altho 'Zona overland game worse by week. Card never in
OregSt game. Gerhart: 143 RYpg last 3, but host is 16-3 ATS in Stanford gms.

Illinois 23 - INDIANA 22 - (7:00) -- Don't like this one even a little. Improved Indy
suddenly floundering. A 536-272 yd deficit vs Virginia's 118th ranked offense,
& allowing 58 FDs the past 2 wks. Illini benched Juice in loss to MichSt, but
eventually played. Minus 90 pts ATS last 7 games, & have #105 "D". Skip it.

SO MISSISSIPPI 27 - Memphis 20 - (7:00) -- Time for Eags to stop the bleeding
(3 straight losses). Lost to L'Ville, despite return of Fletcher. Dog 6-0 ATS in
SM games by 56½ pts. Finally some "O" from Tigs, behind 240 Steele RYs.

Northern Illinois 38 - TOLEDO 33 - (7:00) -- Rockets defenseless: 41 ppg last 7
LGs. Trailed WMich 41-12 at the half LW. Still a 26-12 home spread play, but
NIU more consistent, topping 240 RYs 3 of last 4 gms (Spann: 132 RYs LW).

CONNECTICUT 36 - Louisville 17 - (12:00) -- Cards in off 1st win over an FBS
team in a year (FG in final 0:30), with QB Froman sacked just twice (8 time vs
Pitt). Huskies blew 15-pt lead at Pitt, with 147-6 yd deficit in the 4th. Entered
with #4 "D", but allowed nearly 500 in that one. L'Ville: 33 ppg "D" last 18 LGs.

Kansas 37 - COLORADO 20 - (7:00) -- Jays off 3 HGs, with Oklahoma up next,
so nice spot for the Buffs, who held Texas to just 2 offensive TDs in that decent
effort. But KU QB Reesing is in off a 442 PY, 4 TD effort in narrow escape vs
IowaSt, & is at 75% last 2 vs CU. And Buffs are not the best of avenging dogs.

Miami 30 - CENTRAL FLORIDA 23 - (7:30 - CBSC) -- 'Cane QB Harris getting
help from RB Berry, who ran for 162 yds in his 1st start LW (FlaA&M). But UM
lost its last RG by 26½ pt ATS, & UCF just keeps on covering. Check 219 RYs
from Harvey (career-high) in rout of Memphis. Host & dog way to go with both.

FLORIDA 52 - Arkansas 17 - (7:30) -- Tebow back for Gators (11-of-16, plus 18
carries), in win at LSU. Fifteen straight wins, with a 573-147 pt edge, along
with best "D" in nation. Arkies seem unstoppable at times, behind Mallett (6 TD
passes last 2) & Smith (led Auburn 34-3 in 3rd), but Florida in a class by itself.

Navy 45 - SMU 24 - (8:00) -- Called for 17-pt Middie cover LW, but never stepped
out, in 63-14 creaming of Rice (450-RY edge), behind 7 Dobbs TDs. Smu TDs
vs ECaro: blocked FG, INT return, 94-yd pass. Running for just 6 ypg last 2.

ARIZONA STATE 31 - Washington 24 - (10:15) -- Unbelievable! Six TOs for ASt
LW, with only TDs allowed on 99-yd pass & 23-yd pass on 4th down. And try
10 sacks for 'Devil "D". Huskies in off miracle win & cover (15 pts in final 2:55),
but note >200-yd deficit. Chalk is 25-14 ATS in Sun contests, but tread lightly.

Utah 41 - UNLV 17 - (10:00) -- Quite a defense the Rebels have unveiled this yr.
Check allowing 1,384 yds & 122 pts the past 2 weeks! And note a 68 pt deficit
vs the line over their last 3 games. Utes needed 3 key picks to pull comeback
win over ColoSt, & not up to LY's standards, by any means. But #20 rated "O".

FRESNO STATE 42 - San Jose State 7 - (10:00) -- Can see no way Spartans
can stay near in this contest. Field worst "O" in nation, along with 3rd worst
rushing "D", & 5th worst rushing "O". Compare that to Aztecs, who've run for
887 yds last 3 wks, with Mathews at 741 for the season. First HG in a month.

WEDNESDAY
Tulsa 45 - UTEP 27 - (8:00 - ESPN) -- 'Canes bookend this issue, so altho this
should be solidly in their corner, cannot step out. Tulsa owns Miners (Wise Points)
& the chalk has a 153-33 pt edge in 'Cane RGs so far. Utep has been stung for
596.3 ypg & 99 FDs in its last 3 games, so containing this foe seems impossible.

ADDED GAMES
La-Lafayette 24 - WESTERN KY 10 Troy 38 - FLA-INTERN'AL 16
NORTH TEXAS 33 - Fla Atlantic 27 Mississippi St 24 - MID TENN ST 17

NFL KEY RELEASES
GREEN BAY over Detroit RATING: 2
SEATTLE over Arizona RATING: 3
PITTSBURGH over Cleveland RATING: 4
ATLANTA over Chicago RATING: 4
DENVER over San Diego RATING: 5

WASHINGTON 20 - Kansas City 19 - (1:00) -- Fourth straight NFC East game
for Chiefs, & they're getting closer, losing to the Cowboys in OT LW, after tying
it on a Cassel pass in final 0:24. First cover since LY, but still tied with Rams,
Titans, Bucs for worst record in NFL (0-5). 'Skins blew 17-2 lead at Carolina,
but note Wash TD drives of 13 & 1 yd. Averaging just 14.6 ppg TY, & have yet
to outrush an opponent. That one moves visitor to 11-4 ATS in 'Skin games.
Washington is just 3-10-2 ATS LA, as well as 1-8 ATS hosting an AFC squad,
& 1-8 ATS as fav vs .333 or less foe. And Zorn 0-4 ATS vs AFC. This a take.

Houston 26 - CINCINNATI 23 - (1:00) -- Three straight last-minute wins for the
Bengals, this time on a 20-yd Palmer TD pass in final 0:22 at Baltimore. And
it's not all Carson, as Benson checks in with 487 RYs, including 120 LY, as he
became the first 100-yd rusher allowed by the Ravens in 40 games! Cincy
sits atop the AFC North, & rightly so. Texans in off excruciating loss, coming
all the way back from a 21-0 deficit at Arizona, only to lose on a Schaub INT,
followed by failing to cash in from the 'Zona 1 on 3 plays. Texans 13-5 ATS as
RDs in 2nd straight RG, while Bengals 1-8 ATS at home in Oct off a SU win.

PITTSBURGH 31 - Cleveland 0 - (1:00) -- Why not? We'll try the exact same
score of when these 2 met here a year ago. Browns in off snapping 10-game
losing skein, & what a steamrolling performance it was: 9 FDs, with Anderson
a solid 2-of-17, altho Lewis did motor for 113 RYs. Still a 121-55 pt deficit for
the year. Steelers now in stride, despite their 1-4 spread log. Have scored 8
TDs in last 8 drives inside the red zone, with Ben at 74% for the year (23-of-30
LW), & Mendenhall at 242 RYs last 2 wks. Browns are 4-13 ATS off yielding
<10 pts, & have been outscored by 150 pts in their last 9 games. Steeler rout!

MINNESOTA 27 - Baltimore 26 - (1:00) -- What a sweet thing it is. Favre is now
5-0 for the first time in his illustrious career. Seems hard to believe. And he is
42-of-55 the past 2 wks, with a 9/2 TD to INT record for the year. Vikes were
actually outstatted by the Rams in that 38-10 romper, which pushed the visitor
in Minny games to 8-1 ATS. Two straight losses for the Ravens, who seemed
so invincible a couple of wks ago. Note a 22-12 FD deficit vs Cincy, while
allowing a 100-yd runner for 1st time in 40 games. But Flacco still at 64%, &
Ravens are 12-6 ATS off loss of 9 pts.

MONDAY

Denver 23 - SAN DIEGO 20 - (8:35 - ESPN) -- Amazing! Broncs were figured
somewhere near the dregs TY, but McDaniels has them at 5-0 for the 1st time
since their '98 SuperBowl season. Denver allowing just 8.6 ppg, holding the Pats
scoreless in the 2nd half LW, after shutting out Dallas over the final 3 quarters 2
wks ago. Orton is now 8-1 SU in his last 9 starts, with Marshall a "money" target,
& Moreno doing it, overland. Chargers won 52-21 here LY, but had 32-17 FD &
497-251 yd deficits in their last game (Pittsburgh), while ranking last in overland
production. Broncos remember that bitter '08 loss, keeping them from playoffs.

Marc Lawrence Playbook

Thursday, October 15

SOUTH FLORIDA over Cincinnati by 3
Think Cincinnati HC Brian Kelly is keeping that resume shiny and nice… and
checking it twice? BK is a whopping 26-6 SU since his arrival by the Ohio River
and the Bearcats’ faithful realize they’ll probably have to lock Kelly in a freezer
to keep him around. Cincinnati has erased any doubt that they’re a one-hit
wonder, thanks to the best QB nobody has heard of (Tony Pike) leading them
up the charts each passing week. However, despite going 5-0 ATS the last fi ve
in this series and 5-0-2 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games, not all
is perfect in the Queen City. The Cats, you see, are just 2-17 SU away against
an undefeated opponent this decade. Enter South Florida, a team that refused
to buckle after knocking out Florida State. The Bulls can score some more BCS
brownie points at home in this spot, where they are 45-11 SU this decade,
including 9-1 ATS when they own a win percentage of greater than .750 on
the season. Our powerful database also serves up this juicy tidbit: In a matchup
of 5-0 squads, Game Six dogs are 11-5 ATS, including 7-1 ATS if the favored foe
is off a 24-point or more win. You won’t have to chew on that long to decide.

Friday, October 16

RUTGERS over Pittsburgh by 1
Brent Musberger would open with... “You are looking live at the Butch Davis
Kids Bowl.” It’s been quite a while since Rutgers HC Greg Schiano, and Davis’
Manolo in Coral Gables, was getting love letters at the Hecht Center for
shooting down opposing offenses. And it might not be long before he brings
some angry scribes out of their shells in Piscataway. Schiano, 11-1-1 ATS as a
dog off a win of 20 or more points, has shown the Scarlet Knights the way to
the bowling alley fi ve times in eight years but might have set the bar a little
too high after an 11-win season in 2006. Tied for third in the Big East, here’s
a chance for Rutgers to jump up and bite the mustache off the conference
leader. Pittsburgh is 9-0 ATS away with revenge but has lost four straight to the
Knights, including 54-34 last year despite eating up the stat sheet 486-442. A
lot of power trends tripping over each other here. We’ll stand up straight with
the home dog and its strong rush defense.

Saturday, October 17

4* BEST BET
Oklahoma over Texas by 10

Sam Bradford knows a big stage, huh? The possibility of surgery has
gone the way of dial-up and the bum shoulder looked mighty well last
week. Guess it must be rivalry week, and more importantly to Bradford’s
fi nancial well-being, a matchup of last year’s Heisman Trophy 1-2 fi nishers.
Oklahoma piled up 592 yards of offense against Baylor, the third time this
season the Sooners have surpassed the 500-yard mark (39th time under
HC Bob Stoops) and now must get to work on the rest of the Big 12. The
Sooners are 15-5 SU with a winning record against an undefeated team
under Stoops and 5-0 SU and ATS as a conference dog of three points
or less, with every win by double-digits. The Longhorns, 5-15 ATS off a SU
conference home win of 24 or more points under HC Mack Brown, slipped
in the polls despite their victory over Colorado. Texas is also a poor 3-13-1
ATS as a conference road or neutral site favorite of seven or more points.
The clincher: Bevo is a less-than-bullish 3-9 SU and 0-12 ATS with a win
percentage of more than .800 when favored by less than 10 points versus
an opponent with a winning record against the Knife (Mack, that is). Try
that on for size while the Sooners head for home and score

NC State over BOSTON COLLEGE by 3
Crucial battle between two shell-shocked teams still trying to fi gure out what
hit ‘em last week. BC fell behind 34-0 at Virginia Tech before realizing the game
had started while the Wolfpack ‘D’ was picked apart to the beat of 502 yards
as the Blue Devils (DEVILS!) marched up and down the fi eld without the help
of a Bobby Hurley assist or a Grant Hill dunk. The Pack, averaging 33.8 PPG, can
put it in the end zone with Russell Wilson leading the break and are 6-0 ATS
as a dog off back-to-back losses. In addition, NCSU is 9-1 ATS as a road dog
seeking revenge, including 6-0 ATS off a loss. It’s the old-school Alex English
defense that makes NC State a scary proposition. Boston College, 1-5 ATS off
a double-digit loss, isn’t sleeping too comfortably after being held to two fi rst
downs and 28 yards through three quarters against the Hokies. The Eagles stay
down for the count here.

Ohio St over PURDUE by 10
Inadequate offensive playbook and all – come on, Jim, turn ‘em loose – Ohio
State is just one bad defensive series removed from serious national title talk.
The Buckeyes, 0-3 ATS after the Badgers, have visits to Penn State and Michigan
remaining as their most serious roadblocks but an offense that was outstatted
368-184 in last week’s victory over Wisconsin needs to start displaying a lot
more consistency in order for Ohio State to reach a major bowling alley this
season. Purdue, 4-1 ATS the last fi ve in the series, is 5-0 ATS before Illinois and
4-1 ATS at home with conference revenge. And speaking of outstatting, the
Boilers outgained the Buckeyes (292-222) in a 13-point loss at the ‘Shoe last
year. If it fi ts, then wear it.

Bowling Green over BALL ST by 7
Just in case you’ve been too busy salivating over your bedroom posters of Tim,
Colt or Jimmy while making reservations for New York, here’s another name
everybody should keep handy: Freddy Barnes. The Falcons’ speedy WR just
fried Kent State’s secondary for 250 yards and is making a strong case for an
invite of his own to the Big Apple. The Falcons, 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS away vs.
sub .500 opponents, return home next week to face the well-oiled arm of Dan
LeFevour and the Chips, so being on their best behavior might be smart. The
Cardinals, 0-6 SU and ATS at home vs. sub .500 opposition off a win, have found
a different way to lose each week and are tumbling fast under fi rst-year HC
Stan Parrish. Ball State is winless since last December and ‘Stan The Ban’ is on a
31-game Div I losing skid. Can’t be trusted. Next...

UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET

Northwestern over MICHIGAN ST by 6
Surprising Wildcats, searching for a second straight nine-win season under
H(its) C(ollector) Pat Fitzgerald, have rediscovered their offense, averaging
29.1 PPG to match a serviceable defensive unit. Northwestern, 4-0 ATS
in the series at East Lansing, outgained Sparty 459-297 in a 37-20 home
loss last year and is 4-4 SU against Michigan State since 1999. With some
manageable games left on the schedule (Indiana and Illinois), this could
be another perfect situation for the Purple Cats to add some weight to
the left-side of the ledger and start thinking pins-and-shoes for a second
straight year. Michigan State, 3-11-1 ATS as a home favorite of 24 points
or less off a win, have been as erratic as a night out with Lindsey Lohan,
scaring the Irish, falling fl at against the Cheeseheads and then sneaking
up on the Allen Iverson Foundation. Sparty just might be peeking ahead
a little with Iowa on the serving plate next week. Another homecoming
favorite bites the dust.

5* BEST BET
CLEMSON over Wake Forest by 17
Dabo Swinney might want to set an extra alarm clock Saturday morning.
After a hectic September, the Tigers have had a couple of weeks to
heal their wounds, mostly on an unstable offensive side of the ball.
All hope is not lost for the Tigers to jump back over .500 and make a
late-season run (Coastal Carolina, Florida State and Virginia) towards
a fi fth straight bowling date. Aside from being 6-0 SU and ATS at
home with a losing record, Clemson is the best of this week’s ‘Deep
Six’ SMART BOX. ACC Atlantic-leading Wake Forest is riding the arm
of Riley Skinner… but put on the brakes and take a look at what our
PLAYBOOK.com database has to offer. The fi nd: teams playing their
second road game of the season in Game Seven are 1-10 SU and 3-8
ATS vs. a conference opponent, including 0-5 SU and ATS when the
foe owns a win percentage of .600 or less. With the visitor 0-4 ATS in
this series, it’s just another reason to like the well-rested Tigers to get
off the deck. The clock is ringing.

WISCONSIN over Iowa by 1
Wisky coach Bret Bielema is still trying to fi gure out how his Badgers came
up on the short end of a 33-14 score against Ohio State last week. Wisconsin
dominated the entire game, beating the Buckeyes 22-8 in fi rst downs, 368-184
in total yards and – most amazing of all – held a 42:47 to 17:13 edge in time of
possession! Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes, 6-1 ATS in the last seven games of the
series, including 3-0 ATS away, continue moving up the ladder with QB Ricky
Stanzi and a corn-fed OL in tow. It may not look so pretty – like last week’s
narrow escape against the Wolverines – but the Hawks continue to fi nd their
way under HC Kirk Ferentz. Warning: even though Ferentz is 10-2 ATS as a
road favorite of more than seven points, the last time Hawkeyes laid points
in Madison (1997) they lost the game SU. Wisconsin is 0-4 ATS at home and
coming off a second straight loss to Ohio State – and the dreaded ‘Bubble
Burst’ might be in effect if the Badgers continue to be favored. All the trends
beg taking Iowa. We’ll turn the cheek only if the Badgers are dogging it.

MARYLAND over Virginia by 3
Jeez, who lit a fi re under the Wahoos? After a dreadful 0-3 start that included
a loss to William & Mary, the Cavs have regrouped to win two straight games,
outscoring North Carolina and Indiana by a combined margin of 63-10. Hey,
putting the ball in Mikell Simpson’s belly isn’t too hard to fi gure, right?
Virginia, 0-4 ATS in this spot off a SU and ATS win, enters this rivalry tilt
with a chance to get back to .500 and win a third straight game but Groh
is 0-6 ATS as a road favorite off a SU and ATS win. Maryland, 7-1 ATS as a
host in the series, has allowed a conference-high 216 points and is fresh off
a shredding courtesy of Wake Forest QB Riley Skinner. There is a ray of light,
though. Maryland HC Ralph Friedgen is a solid 15-5 SU and 12-6 ATS at home
off a loss, including 6-1 ATS as a dog. It doesn’t smell too good but we’ll play
it by the book.

Baylor over IOWA ST by 3
Art Briles for president? Nobody in Waco would argue. Baylor’s commanderin-
chief is a win away – hell, forget the mulling in Oklahoma last week – from
a fourth season victory for the second straight year, an accomplishment his
predecessor could only manage twice in fi ve seasons. Baylor, 3-0 SU and ATS in
the last three games in the series, is 7-2 ATS in its last nine lined games dating
back to last year. Iowa State, rendered defenseless by the Jayhawks last week,
is 2-13 SU in its last 15 lined games and 2-7 ATS in its last nine tries as Big 12
chalk. It’s your vote that’s really going to count.

OLE MISS over Uab by 21
Those whom praise has been bestowed upon are expected to show their worth
before too long. Ole Miss cover boy Jevan Snead hasn’t exactly lived up to
his billing, though wearing out the Blazers might get him back on track. The
Rebels, 0-5 ATS after Alabama and 0-4 ATS as a favorite vs. a rested opponent,
tend to bounce back from a double-digit loss and return home nicely under
HC Houston Nutt, who is 8-1 ATS in this role. UAB is 5-1 ATS vs. the SEC when
Blazers are not off a double-digit beat. Bottom-line: nobody should be jumping
at the chance of laying doubles with homecoming chalk. Pass it already!

Georgia over VANDERBILT by 3
The Dawgs can’t be – and shouldn’t be – feeling too good about themselves
for having been the victims of Tennessee QB Jonathan Crompton’s coming out
party last Saturday. Georgia has been exposed defensively on more than one
occasion this season and sports a 1-6 ATS mark after allowing 37 or more points.
Despite last week’s loss, Dawgs HC Mark Richt is still 25-5 SU as a conference
visitor, including 11-1 ATS against an opponent off a loss – but this number
leaves plenty of room for the Commies to hang around. Vandy is fodder for the
database as a team with 17 retuning starters as dogs off back-to-back ATS losses
are 48-18-1 ATS when facing an opponent off a loss. Toss in UGA’s recent 0-3
ATS series and we’ll watch Richt’s road genius gets scratched again.

AUBURN over Kentucky by 6
If there are any balloons bursting over Jordan-Hare Stadium on Saturday, the
Tigers might not bat an eye. Auburn, averaging 41 PPG entering last week’s
battle with Arkansas, fell into a 27-3 hole that eventually proved too deep to
crawl out of. After smooth sailing the fi rst month-plus, here comes the fi rst
reality check for Tigers HC Gene Chizik as he now has the task of righting a
squad that is 1-4 ATS as a conference favorite of 15 or more points. The Wildcats,
7-0 ATS vs. the SEC before a non-conference game and 6-0 ATS after visiting
South Carolina, aren’t exactly doing a victory dance after being turned away
in the fi nal seconds by the Gamecocks. But the Bluegrass Cats are 6-1 ATS as
dogs vs. an opponent off back-to-back road games and Auburn fi ts this week’s
Awesome Angle ‘BUBBLE BURST’. Despite UK QB Mike Hartline’s season-ending
knee injury, it still makes us a bit hungry for Ashley... um Kentucky, that is.

TEMPLE over Army by 3
Hurry, somebody get Temple HC Al Golden and his Owls a GPS map because
they’ve ventured into uncharted territory. Temple leads the East Division of
the MAC and is gunning for a fourth straight win overall. Thanks to a rush
defense that’s allowed less than 3.0 Yards Per Carry, the Owls have won three
straight games just twice since 1980. Problem is, they’ve gone 0-2 SU and ATS
when trying to win four in a row. To make matters worse, the visitor in a Cadets
vs. MAC matchup this decade is 9-3 ATS this decade. Call the Philadelphia city
switchboard and let them know not to spend it all on the Phillies… the Owls
just might deserve some confetti of their own by season’s end. However, in this
spot, we’re betting the Cadets put a major scare into those plans.

C Michigan over W MICHIGAN by 13
Has anybody asked Dan LeFevour what color suit he might want to wear to the
Big Apple? The Chips, averaging 40 PPG in their last fi ve games, haven’t missed
a beat – or an open receiver in LeFevour’s case – since a season-opening loss
in the desert. With LeFevour (1,311 passing yards, 12 TD passes) and the rest
of the offense in gear, the Chips are storming towards a fourth consecutive
bowl game – three straight road games, starting this week, not withstanding.
Central Michigan is 9-2 ATS after scoring 35 or more points in a conference
game. The Broncos, 1-7 ATS as home dogs with revenge vs. an opponent off
a double-digit win, are 2-9 ATS as home dogs of more than three points. Lay
the Chips if you must.

AIR FORCE over Wyoming by 18
Get the Falcons a razor and some shaving cream. Air Force, 3-0 ATS in the
last three games of the series, is coming off two straight defeats (including
last week’s three-point loss to TCU) and has suffered three losses by seven
points or less. The Cowboys, 1-14 ATS in their last 15 conference road games
(INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK – PART I) are searching for their fi rst fourgame
winning streak and initial win over Air Force since 2005. The other half
of our INCREDIBLE STAT bill fi nds that Air Force is a near-perfect 13-1 ATS at
home of a loss of three points or less. Let it snow… we’ll settle in at home with
the Flyboys.

OHIO U over Miami Ohio by 6
Lincoln’s leftover has become a treasure in Athens. Ohio U HC Frank Solich has
already matched last season’s four-win total and the Bobcats are in position to
go pin-dropping for the fi rst time in three years. A warning,though: Ohio is -32
net YPG this season having faced a weak schedule, including lined opponents
with a combined 6-17 record. The well-traveled ‘Hawks, who have played only
one game at Oxford this season, have been outscored 220-61 and are on an
11-game losing skid dating back to last October. Still, Miami of Ohio is only -55
net YPG despite their winless ways. We wouldn’t be surprised to see another
double-digit homecoming chalk-layer bite the dust. We’ll fl y with the ‘Hawks.

Nevada over UTAH ST by 10
Priorities have certainly changed a bit in Reno. Despite a two-game win streak,
the ‘Pack is now entertaining thoughts about just winning the WAC title after
a dismal 0-3 SU and ATS start. Nevada has won six or more games over the last
four years but even fi nishing at .500 seems a distant possibility with four road
dates remaining. Utah State, 4-0 ATS as a host, is back in its comfort zone in the
double-digit dog role where the Aggies are 3-0 ATS this season. Caution: USU
outgained their fellow Aggies 459-230 in a 20-17 loss at New Mexico State last
week. With Nevada beginning to get a bit too pricey for our blood, we’ll beg
out of this one.

PENN ST over Minnesota by 18
Joe Pa apparently is mad as hell and he isn’t going to take it anymore. Not one
to particularly bury his opponent’s face in the mud, the Lions scored 28 points
in the last 7:00 of the second quarter last week before running and hiding.
Penn State’s strength is its defense, one that has held fi ve of its six opponents
this season to season-low yardage totals. Granted, the Gophers are 4-1 ATS in
the last fi ve games of the series and 4-0 ATS as conference dogs of 13 or more
points. But while the trends point heavily to the visitors, do you feel anything
less than 270 yards by Minnesota (their season low) will be enough to deliver
the bacon? We really didn’t think so. Lions roar!

WEST VIRGINIA over Marshall by 16
West Virginia HC Bill Stewart literally had to beg for some love in Morgantown
after the departure of the nightstalker, Rich ‘Keep ‘Em After Dark’ Rodriguez.
The Mountaineers stumbled out of the gate at 1-2 before qualifying – and
winning – a seventh straight bowl game last season. At 4-1 this season, West
Virginia, who is 1-8 ATS as a home favorite off a double-digit ATS win, fi nds
itself in the middle of a Big East sandwich. Marshall is looking for a second
straight road win and third this season. Don’t discount the ‘In-bred Rivalry’
factor with ‘The Herd’. This one means much more to the little guy than big
brother.

ALABAMA over South Carolina by 13
Just when you thought the frosting had come off the visor. South Carolina
HC Steve Spurrier has the Cocks headed north in the polls with fi ve out of six
wins this season to put a two-year, 7-11 skid on the boiler and give the folks
in Columbia some hope. The Gamecocks are 8-2 ATS away off three straight
home games and 6-2 ATS as a road dog vs. an undefeated conference opponent
in Game Four and beyond. Spurrier is also 5-3 SU ATS against the Tide, though
South Carolina last beat Alabama in 2004 under Lou Holtz. More importantly,
South Carolina is 6-0 ITS (In The Stats) this season. Alabama is breathing down
Florida’s neck in the polls again and hasn’t lost a regular season game since
late 2007. Now the bad: The Tide is 0-4 ATS in Game Seven, 0-4 ATS before
facing Tennessee and 2-7 ATS as a conference home favorite of 15 points or
more. Chew on more? Tide HC Nick Saban is 4-7-1 ATS at home vs. conference
opponent with a win percentage of .833 or greater, including 0-3 ATS when
laying more than three points. No visor, no problem. SC is feeling rather cocky
and we like them that way.

Usc over NOTRE DAME by 3
Two weeks should have been enough for Notre Dame HC Charlie Weiss to
make sure his health is intact. It would be hard to blame him for checking into
the clinic after watching the Irish over the last month. It’s never easy to watch
a nail-biter from the sidelines but four in a row could send anybody to the
emergency room. Notre Dame is 11-1-1 ATS as home dogs off a win of seven
points or more and 8-1 ATS as a dog with rest. Line value comes from the fact
that the Irish are 0-4 ATS in their last four games, but still 4-1 ITS this season.
The Trojans, also coming off a two-week hiatus, are a rancid 1-6 ATS in their
last seven as double-digit road chalk. Even though USC manhandled the Irish,
449-91 yards, in a 38-3 win last year, this is a bad spot for the Trojans as they are
off the victory at Cal and have a big-time revenger with Oregon State up next.
Common thread: Notre Dame defeated Washington while the Trojans came up
short in Seattle. Ah, the Irish eyes are beaming.

UCLA over California by 3
It lasted for all of a month but the roses have slowly begun to wither and die.
After a 3-0 SU and ATS start in September, ‘Dog’ Master and UCLA HC Rick
Neuheisel had a lot of people in Hollywood thinking Cubbies rather than
Trojans for a change. The only concern now is righting the ship before the
Bruins sink out of sight. There are strong indicators that it will happen. UCLA
is 21-7 ATS as a home dog and 10-3 SU and 11-2 ATS at home off a home
loss. California, 0-4 SU and 0-3-1 ATS in the last four in the series, has been
treated rather rudely in the PAC 10 after snacking on lesser competition
to start the season. Riding high themselves after a 3-0 start, the Bear have
begun their annual mid-season hibernation. And we don’t see their slumber
being interrupted this week. Obey the ‘Dog’ Master and chase the bone at
home

Houston over TULANE by 24
If anybody saw a job wanted ad in the papers in New Orleans recently begging
for an extra scoreboard operator for Saturday’s Tulane game, it probably wasn’t
a mistake. Houston, giving up an average of 497-yards on defense against lined
opposition this season, has gained season-high yards vs. every 2009 opponent
and is averaging over 40 PPG (making a not-so-tasteful defensive unit easier to
stomach). The Green Wave is inching towards respectability after snapping a
10-game losing skid dating back to last season in September. Only problem is
that Tulane is 0-6 ATS in the series and 2-8 ATS as a conference home dog off
a double-digit ATS loss. Plus, the Greenies have fi ve road games remaining on
their schedule, including three straight to end the regular season. Lay it.

NEBRASKA over Texas Tech by 1
We don’t use the word ‘miraculous’ that often but if you saw Nebraska sleepwalk
through a Missouri monsoon for three quarters last week while sinking into a
12-0 defi cit and then emerge with a “how did that happen?” 27-12 win over
the stunned Tigers, well… let’s just say it was tent revival stuff at the very least.
Down in Lubbock, the TTRR offensive machine is fi nally starting to hum again
after being derailed in consecutive losses to Texas and Houston. Mike Leach
and company have rolled up 48 and 66 points in two straight wins and backup
QB Sheffi eld threw for 490 yards and 7 TD’s in Saturday’s demolition of Kansas
State. Bo Pelini’s Huskers would be unbeaten right now if not for a last-second
meltdown at Virginia Tech but our ATS archives tell us that this is not the spot
to shuck some corn. Big Red is just 1-5 ATS at Lincoln off a DD conference road
win, 1-3-1 ATS after tackling Mizzou and 2-6 ATS home when looking to avenge
a previous defeat against a Big 12 foe (lost 37-31 to Tech last year). With the
series dog grabbing the bone in three of the last four get-togethers, we’ll go
with the red-and-black over the red-and-white.

KANSAS ST over Texas A&M by 3
Those making their way into Bill Snyder Family Stadium Saturday night might
want to hold their collective noses. The return of Coach Snyder to the sidelines
in Manhattan has played to mixed reviews so far with two of K-State’s three
wins coming against UMass and Tennessee Tech (sounds like Snyder and KSU
basketball coach Frank Martin switched schedules). However, not all is doom
and gloom. KSU stands 34-3 SU and 26-7 ATS at home vs. an opponent they
defeated in their most recent meeting under Snyder. Bill is also 11-5 ATS as a
home dog, including 4-0 SU and ATS loss. Texas A&M has been sleeping in its
own bed most of the season and hits the road for its fi rst true road game time
this season. The Aggies, 7-15 ATS against a lined opponent, play three of the
next four away from College Station. Put out the bonfi re. We can’t trust this
group in their maiden voyage.

OKLAHOMA ST over Missouri by 8
A perfect season gone bust is the latest entry in the Cowboys diary this
year. Expected by many to challenge the big boys (Oklahoma and Texas)
for conference honors, OSU will do well to land a New Year’s day bowl bid.
The suspension of star WR Dez Bryant takes a major weapon away from Zac
Robinson. Still, the ‘Boys are 6-1 ATS as home favorites against an avenging
Big 12 foe but 0-4 ATS as a host in this series. With Missouri QB Blaine Gabbert
wobbly, the Striped Cats will need all they’ve got and more to settle a score
from 5-point defeat suffered as 14.5-point home chalk last year, the Tigers only
home loss in 2008. Tough call, y’all.

EAST CAROLINA over Rice by 20
Alright, so hitting the road recently hasn’t been to Skip Holtz’s liking. Sitting
at .500 for the season, East Carolina is 0-3 away from Greenville. But get them
home and it’s a different story. ECU has won nine of their last 10 games at
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium and is 3-1 ATS at home off a SU favorite loss under
the Skipper. Only true concern here is the Pirates’ 4-13 ATS log in their last 17
lined games. Rice, 2-5 ATS as a road dog of four or more points off a SU favorite
loss, has gone a full 180 on us in 2009. Less than a year removed from a 10-win
season, the winless Owls are sinking and sinking fast. We’ll pass.

BUFFALO over Akron by 10
The Bulls aren’t feeling quite the same love this time around. A bowler for
the fi rst time ever in 2008 under two-time MAC Coach of the Year Turner Gill,
Buffalo was getting fl owers left at their doorstep and Gill was getting tugged
on the arm by countless suitors. Turner stayed and although they haven’t
been so bullish this year, Buffalo has outstatted their last three opponents and
appears to be turning the corner. Akron has been favored in nine out of 10
games in this series but the Tiremakers are 0-4 ATS of late against the Bulls and
are just 1-6 ATS in last seven lined games since last year. The Zips are down but
it’s hard to back Buffalo laying this kind of wood. We’re defi nitely in the mood
to run a deep post out of here.

TCU over Colorado St by 20
Might want to have the resident carpenter cover all visible holes on the Fort
Worth campus this week. One of the remaining unbeaten teams in the nation
– and still hoping to go BCS door-knocking – TCU is 4-1 ATS in the last fi ve in
the series and 7-0 ATS at home with conference revenge. The Horned Frogs are
also an appetizing 7-1 ATS as conference favorites of 15 or more points. The
problem is they look up and see a monster collision awaiting them at BYU next.
Colorado State HC Steve Fairchild is 8-4-1 ATS as a dog, including 5-0-1 ATS in
the last six. We’d take the wood before laying it in this spot.

LA TECH over New Mexico St by 16
Another team that is probably glad to be back home, Louisiana Tech has
lost seven of nine on the road since last year, including all three in 2009. The
Techsters have proven to be quite the stat phony, too, getting outscored 116-
125 for the season. And speaking of phony, the Bulldogs lost the stats (523-356)
in a 35-31 victory over the Aggies last year. New Mexico State is 3-0 ATS in the
series but lost the stat battle (459-230) in a 20-17 win over Utah State last week.
No interest here in either of these fakes.

Kent St over E MICHIGAN by 3
Can’t be smelling very good around Kent, Ohio when your HC has won only 21
games since 2004 and two of those wins this year have come against Coastal
Carolina and Miami of Ohio. Such is the mess Kent State HC Doug Martin is
trying to clean up these days. On a two-game skid, the Golden Flashes are 2-8
ATS as a road favorite, including 0-5 ATS in the last fi ve. Eastern Michigan is 3-1
ATS in the last four series games but 0-5 SU and ITS the season. No mas.

IDAHO over Hawaii by 6
It’s safe to say the Rainbows haven’t been victimized by anything the Vandals
have thrown their way in recent years. Hawaii is 5-0 SU and ATS in the series
since 2004 and the mark includes all wins by two-dozen or more points each.
In fact, the Warriors have been favored by 24, 25 and 26 points the last three
years! The loss of starting QB Greg Alexander (knee) for the season does put a
fourth straight trip to the bowling alley in serious jeopardy. But facing Idaho
can’t hurt, no matter who’s behind center. The Vandals, 0-9 ATS as favorites of
three or more points this decade, have been a dog all six times this season and
our database reminds us that favorites off three SU underdog wins are just 4-19
ATS. Translation: fade the Potato Skins this week.

Byu over SAN DIEGO ST by 10
Things seem to work much better when your opponent is of equal or less
speed. Just ask the Cougars. Made to resemble piano-carrying dwarfs by much
maligned Bobby Bowden last month, BYU has rebounded after being upset
by Bobby’s Dysfunctional Gang. The Cougars, 1-6-1 ATS against a conference
revenger and 3-7 ATS as a road favorite off an away game, have not scored
less than 35 points in running off three consecutive wins since their only pinkslip
of the season. However, BYU is just 1-3 ATS before facing TCU. Think San
Diego State HC Brady Hoke – the answer to this week’s TRIVIA TEASER – likes
the view from the bottom of the WAC? Well-rested SDSU is 6-2 ATS off backto-
back home games and might be primed to surprise a team looking ahead
towards a big revenge game next week. We’ll gladly accept any and all chalk.

ARIZONA over Stanford by 3
With all the hugs and kisses usually pointed the Trojans’ way, it might be time
for Stanford HC Jim Harbaugh to start getting his share of love. Stanford, 5-1
SU and ATS in the series – including having won the last two as a SU dog
– sits right behind Oregon for the PAC-10 lead and has already knocked off
Trojan-killer Washington and sexy UCLA. The negative: Stanford is 0-4 SU and
ATS away off an away game under Harbaugh. Arizona returns home after two
roadies, including a crushing 36-33 defeat at Washington despite cashing the
stat sheet 461-256. Take it if you play it.

INDIANA over Illinois by 3
How bad did Indiana look last week it’s 47-7 no-show against Virginia? Bad
enough for the linemaker to install Ilinois – one of the most underachieving,
incompetent teams in the land – as road chalk over the Hoosiers. Already at last
year’s win total, the 3-3 Hoosiers are on a three-game losing skid after opening
the season with a trifecta of W’s on the left-side of the ledger. Indiana is 4-0 SU
and ATS at home when coming off a loss. “Please don’t let Ron Zook anywhere
near Gainesville” is the chorus in Gator Nation these days. Illinois, 0-3 SU and
ATS as a road favorite since last year, is 0-4 SU, ATS and ITS (all losses of more
than 100 yards by the way) vs. lined opposition this season. Not exactly a tasty
recipe when cooking up a case for road chalk. They may be singing the same
tune in Champagne sometime soon.

SOUTHERN MISS over Memphis by 7
The Golden Eagles should be in celebratory mood for just being home.
Southern Miss has lost three straight – all on the road, albeit to a boatload of
injuries – and have dropped two games SU as a favorite. The Tigers are 3-1 SU
and ATS, all as dogs, and woke up, at least for the moment, with a SU home
dog win over UTEP last week. Move forward carefully. You’re on your own.

No Illinois over TOLEDO by 7
Northern Illinois HC Jerry Kill promised his team would play defense and play
it well after taking over before the 2008 season. Well so far, so good. The Huskies
didn’t allow more than 14 points in any of their six wins of a year ago and
have held steady this season. Northern Illinois, 6-1 ATS with rest, has only two
losses this season and those came against teams that are a combined 10-2.
Toledo is 4-1 ATS in the series here but the loss of four-year starting QB Aaron
Opelt is devastating for an offense that is used to scoring in bunches. Don’t
look for the Rockets take off without him anytime soon.

CONNECTICUT over Louisville by 8
On the swings sit two third-place Big East outfi ts teams in a key conference
game for both. The Huskies are 4-1 ATS in the last fi ve series games but might
be running on an empty tank considering they’re coming off a revenger
against Pittsburgh and staring at two more in West Virginia and Rutgers up
next. Louisville, who outstatted the Huskies 508-279 in a gut-wrenching fi vepoint
loss at home last year, just snapped a three-game skid but look up to see
a trip to Top 10 Cincinnati next. A victory in this spot puts them back in bowl
contention. We like the mix.

3* BEST BET
GEORGIA TECH over Virginia Tech by 10
If Ann Bowden isn’t getting any of her coupons accepted at the local
shops in Tallahassee these days she just might want to call the men that
buried her husband. (Editor’s note: No, Bobby’s not dead… just yet.)
Meanwhile, Georgia Tech star RB Jonathan Dwyer and QB Josh Nesbitt
combined for 242 rushing yards as the Jackets ran the Seminoles’ defense
ragged. So much for the Jackets’ offense being labled one-dimensional
after hitting a bump in Miami! Georgia Tech, 7-1-1 ATS with conference
revenge, shows up knowing HC Paul Johnson is 24-12-2 ATS as a dog in
his career and 9-1 SU home with the Ramblin’ Wreck. Va Tech QB Tyrod
Taylor isn’t acting like a kid on the fi eld anymore and as a result, the
Hokies are smack in the middle of some national title talk. To that we
say, “bring it on.” The Gobblers are a very pedestrian 2-10 ATS after
Boston College and 3-7 ATS in Game Seven. That pile of ashes you see? It’s
courtesy of another Top-5 team going up in smoke this week.

Kansas over COLORADO by 6
What was that about ‘only hoops’ in Lawrence? The Big 12 leading Jayhawks
have won 13 of 18 and could be sitting unblemished and waiting when the
Sooners roll into town next week. Kansas, 2-5 ATS before playing Oklahoma,
has allowed 1301 yards to the likes of Iowa State, Southern Miss and Duke
in their last three games – not very impressive numbers for a potential BCS
bowler. Colorado, 7-2 ATS as a double-digit conference home dog, has a little
home-wrecking in progress with the benching of QB baby boy Hawkins by big
daddy H. Still, we have no choice but to fade the ‘5-0 Fat Cats’ with Oklahoma
and Texas Tech revenge games on deck. We’ll order the Buffalo burger today.

Miami Fla over C FLORIDA by 11
The dancing and prancing has returned to Coral Gables. The Hurricanes have
whipped up a potent offense and with little in the way, could be a serious BCS
contender by the end of the season. However, there is business to tend to before
the gifts start arriving under the tree. Miami is 1-6 ATS vs. C-USA opposition
and just 1-5 ATS off back-to-back home games. The Canes are also 1-3-1 ATS off
a SU home win of 14 points or more but did outstat the Knights, 216-78, in a
six-point home win a year ago. Central Florida is 3-0 ATS as a home dog of 10
points or more and 4-1 ATS against the ACC. The trends say Knights.

FLORIDA over Arkansas by 21
In the aftermath of Tim’s trauma and an impressive win in Death Valley over
LSU last week, the best team in the land turns its focus to Bobby Petrino’s highpowered
Razorbacks. Florida will need its top-ranked defense to step up in
the Swamp once again today as the Hogs have scored more than 40 points in
all but one contest this season. The Pigs are 4-0 ATS in games after battling
Auburn and also 7-2 ATS on the SEC road with revenge. While the money has
gone over to the Gators in each of the last seven meetings in this series, the
fact of the matter is they are just 2-6 ATS as conference home chalk of 24 or
more points. With teams just 13-26-1 ATS in games after physical fi ghts with
the Bengals – including 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS this season – the points become
the play here today.

Navy over SMU by 10
Always thought the Navy was about letting it fl y. Don’t tell Midshipmen HC Ken
Niumatalolo. Navy defeated Rice last week despite while completing just two
passes. It kind of helps when you have the Rice Owls on the other side of the
line of scrimmage to open the doors for a 471-yard day on the ground, doesn’t
it? The Mustangs, 1-5 ATS in the last six and 0-3 ATS in last three here, scored
as a SU ‘inside-out’ home dog win over ECU (won the game but lost the stats).
We’re going to hit the ground running with the Middies.

ARIZONA ST over Washington by 6
Arizona State hasn’t been witness to this kind of hitting since Barry Bonds was
knocking them over the wall over two-plus decades ago. The Sun Devils are fast
and physical on defense, which could spell trouble for the ‘Jake of all Trades’. ASU
is 5-0 ATS in the last fi ve in the series and scored a 20-point win at Washington
last year as a 13.5 favorite. Washington, 0-3 SU and ATS off a SU dog win, must
be thinking “what have we done to deserve this?” Already having battled LSU
deep into the night and knocked off USC, the Huskies have faced opposition with
a combined 24-7 mark. Consequently, the Huskies have also been outstatted in
each of the last fi ve games. Look for Dennis Erickson’s team to pick themselves up
and continue their winning ways.

Utah over UNLV by 20
Those giant footsteps we hear belong to the Utes. Last year’s Sugar Bowl
sweetie, Utah has won two straight games and has the look of a team ready
to challenge for the MWC championship. Utah, 9-1 ATS as a double-digit
conference favorite vs. sub .500 opposition, has developed a power ground
game that is operating at 5.0 YPR while UNLV is allowing 6.0 YPR on defense.
The Runnin’ Rebels are 1-7 ATS under HC Mike Sanford off a loss vs. a .750 or
better opponent. We don’t want any of that.

FRESNO ST over San Jose St by 21
Fresno State HC Pat Hill has developed a habit of fi nding a way to take his kids
bowling at the end of the season nine of the last 10 years. But still under .500
through fi ve games and with three road games remaining, getting back to the
alley might be a little much to ask. Fresno State is 5-1 ATS in the last six games,
including 3-0 ATS in the three here. San Jose St is 0-4 SU and has lost each game
by over 150 yards in the ITS against a lined opponent. Ouch! Too steep a hill for
the Spartans to climb here.

WASHINGTON over Kansas City by 3
Jim Zorn might want to read up on the 1876 Battle of the Little Big Horn as this
may very well be his last stand. His Redskins are fi nishing up the soft part of
their schedule with more battle scars than expected, managing only a 2-2 SU
record against the Rams, Lions, Bucs and Panthers – teams that have combined
for an 0-13 mark outside of Washington affairs. In fact, his embattled warriors
were actually outscored in those contests by a 59-56 count. While most consider
this a must win for Zorn, we just can’t lay points with an offense this inept. Our
powerful PLAYBOOK.com database comes with arrows-a-blazing, noting the
‘Skins are a pathetic 0-9-1 ATS in their last 10 non-conference frays and 0-5-1
ATS their last 6 as chalk. They also check in with a 1-7 ATS log as favorites versus
.333 or less competition, including 0-2 ATS this year. With the Chiefs 4-0 ATS in
this series and no longer spread virgins after their OT loss against the Cowboys,
we’ll look for another close fi nish and another reason for Daniel Snyder to add
one more coach’s scalp to his mantle.

CINCINNATI over Houston by 3
Let’s hope these ‘Cardiac Cats’ do have 9 lives because it appears they may
need all of them to make it through this season. Their 3rd straight 4th-quarter
comeback against a division foe has them sitting alone at the top of the AFC
North perch and the Vegas boys have made them a solid 4.5-point choice to
stay there for at least one more week. These are the same oddsmakers who
installed them as 9-point dogs last year in Houston when they were blown
out 35-6. The presence of Carson Palmer certainly sways the line, but a 13.5-
point adjustment is just too much, especially considering that the favorite in
Cincy games this season is a tame 0-5 ATS. Marvin’s Bengals have also been
kitten-like at home in the month of October off a SU win, posting a 1-8 ATS
mark and a not so frisky 1-11 ATS log off a division game versus a less than .500
opponent. Houston wasted a ferocious 2nd-half rally thanks to a Pick Six and an
improbable Arizona goal-line stand and now looks to get back to the.500 mark
for the third time this season. While the hosts do have a handful of lives left,
our trusty database thinks they might have to use another one as it reminds us
that the Texans are a perfect 7-0 ATS as dogs of 4 or more points of a SU loss,
including 1-0 this year, and a steady 4-1 ATS away versus an opponent off a SU
dog win. You make the call ‘cause we’re feeling a little fi nicky about this one.

PITTSBURGH over Cleveland by 14
Has Mike Tomlin been spending time with Joe Paterno? His usually reliable
defense almost fell prey to a late Lions’ rally and the defending champs have
now been outscored 55-13 in the 4th quarter this season. Tomlin’s stop unit
should receive an instant cure in the form of the Brown’s offense as Mangini’s
squad arrives in the Steel City off yet another non-offensive performance.
Despite the win over Buffalo, Cleveland was held without a TD for the 3rd
time this season and has scored 10 or less points in 9 of their last 11 contests.
We don’t think Derek Anderson’s 2-of-17, 23-yard outing will put much fear
into the Steel Curtain, nor will their 1-10 ATS mark off a SU win when facing a
division opponent, for that matter. While the Steelers have owned this series to
the tune of 9-2 ATS over the last 11 and 4-1 ATS the last 5 at home – and have
been a Trump-like 12-0 ATS as favorites versus less than .500 division foes off a
SU non division win – they have only been installed as a two-TD choice once in
this long series rivalry and that resulted in a SU loss. Though our eyes tell us that
the Browns’ anemic offense won’t put together a 4th-quarter scare of their
own this week, Mangini’s 8-2 ATS road mark versus division opponents has us
looking in another direction.

5* BEST BET
Baltimore over MINNESOTA by 11
You can bet Ray Lewis and company will be looking for someone to hit
hard after falling victim to another penalty-aided 4th-quarter rally…
and especially after allowing Cedric Benson (120 yards) to become the
fi rst RB to top the 100-yard mark in 39 games. The Vikings now hold the
distinction of limiting an opposing rusher to under 100 yards (28 games) in
consecutive games but their defense will be also looking to make amends
for a lackluster effort which saw the punch-less Rams scorch them for 400
yards of total offense. Four turnovers in the red zone assured the Vikings of
a 5th-straight win, the fi rst time in Favre’s 19-year career that he has started
a season 5-0. Our veteran database, with its own distinguished 29-year
career, tells us that Favre’s streak stops here, pointing out that the Ravens
are 5-1 ATS off BB SU losses versus an opponent off a SU and ATS win and
a relentless 8-2 ATS as dogs off a SU favorite loss versus non-conference
opponents. Meanwhile, the Vikings are 1-7 ATS after allowing 10 or less
points and a money-burning 0-5 ATS versus an opponent of a SU favorite
loss. Look for the ball-hawking Ed Reed to cash in on a Pick-Six Favre
specialty as the Ravens make up for a couple of weeks of frustration.

JACKSONVILLE over St. Louis by 7
The Rams certainly have been the ‘Ugly Pigs’ that we made them out to be
this season but they may very well be holding the glass slipper this week in
Jacksonville after the performance the Jekyll-and-Hyde Jaguars turned in
against the Seahawks. As ugly as the Rams have looked, they have actually
improved their net stats each week, outgaining Minnesota 400 to 377 last
Sunday, while the Jaguars were downright Hyde-like in that embarrassing noshow
trip to Seattle. And according to our database, it looks like Jekyll is at
least another week away as Del Rio’s crew is a winless 0-5 ATS as favorites of
7 or more points off a SU and ATS loss while St. Louis is a Ram-tough 7-0 ATS
versus less than .500 opposition off a double-digit SU loss. If need be, drink that
potion (or a whole lot of alcohol) before backing the winless Rams. Grab the
double digits. Trust me – I’m a doctor.

NEW ORLEANS over NY Giants by 6
As you would expect, good numbers abound everywhere as these two unbeatens
collide in the Big Easy. The 5-0 Giants lead the NFL in point differential at +80
while the 4-0 Saints are right behind at +78. While Coughlin’s ‘Kings of the
Road’ are a brilliant 10-1 ATS away off back-to-back SU and ATS wins and 11-1
ATS versus .666 or greater opposition, look for them to get their fi rst real test
of the season against a rested New Orleans squad that is a Saint-like 9-1 ATS at
home versus .666 or greater non-division conference foes. Like we said earlier,
a case can be made for either side but our PLAYBOOK.com database jumps in
with this tie-breaker: undefeated home teams playing with a week of rest are
28-8-1 ATS during the regular season! While we respect the G-Men’s incredible
road record, this is one stat we have no interesting in fading. If you play it, lay
it – as the forecast calls for a light “Brees” this afternoon in the Superdome.

3* BEST BET
Carolina over TAMPA BAY by 13
Don’t look now but Raheem Morris’ Bucs may join Tampa’s 1976 edition and
last year’s Lions as the only teams to go winless in the modern era. They’ll
be underdogs in all remaining games this season and have not shown any
sure signs of improvement, losing the stats battle in every contest. They’re
certainly a welcome sight for the struggling Carolina Panthers who started
the season 0-3 before rallying from a 17-2 2nd-half home defi cit against
the Redskins to pull out a must-have 20-17 win. This is another must-have
and we’ll look for that rally, along with the Panthers’ 10-2 ATS mark in
October versus a less than .500 opponent with revenge, to serve as catalysts
for John Fox’s crew as they try to keep pace with the Saints and Falcons in
the NFC South. Tampa’s 2-6 ATS log versus .333 or less seals the deal. And
as for the bumbling Bucs’ offensive and defensive execution? Like John
McKay before him, we’re sure Raheem Morris is entirely in favor of it.

GREEN BAY over Detroit by 8
The Packers face the daunting task of trying to get back up off the mat after
outplaying the Vikings in “Brett’s game” only to come up on the short end
of the scoreboard. It’s never easy getting psyched-up to play the lowly Lions.
Confi rmation comes from the fact that NFL teams who won zero or one game
the previous season are now a retirement fund in good standing, going 25-
13-1 ATS when taking more than 10 points. In fact, the Lions themselves are
13-2 ATS in their last fi fteen games when taking the same. Green Bay adds
to the party with a 2-12-1 ATS mark in its last fi fteen tries laying more than
10, including 0-6 ATS in division duels. If Mike McCarthy can get his team over
hurdles like these, he’s a better coach than most. We’re betting he’s not.

Philadelphia over OAKLAND by 10
Talk about ineptness… Al Davis should report immediately to the incompetent
owners society. Like Twelve-Step programs, there are meetings round the clock
and he would certainly be a welcome guest. After somehow making it to the
Super Bowl in 2003, his teams are 25-77 since, including six straight losing
seasons and counting. And speaking of counting, this year’s edition is the fi rst
team in the NFL since 1960 to gain less than 200 yards in four straight games.
How then is it, you ask, that we are considering taking them against the highfl
ying Eagles today? For openers, check out this week’s DARLIN’ BE HOME
SOON article on page 2. It seems that teams playing in the role Philadelphia
fi nds itself in today are fodder even for the likes of the Raiders. With doubledigit
road favorites off a win just 17-36-1 ATS against sub .220 opposition, it
looks as if even Al can’t get in the way of this hanging dog.

SEATTLE over Arizona by 6
How important is QB Matt Hasselbeck to the Seattle lineup? A 41-0 victory last
week says it all. Enter the defending Super Bowl losers – the Cardinals, a team
having problems of its own. Arizona managed to stave off Houston at home
last week, despite being outgained 416-340 in the contest. They take to the
road today knowing that defending Super Bowl losers are just 20-44-3 ATS on
the road off a win of seven or more points when going into revenge. Add to
that Zona’s 0-5-1 ATS log in games off a win when facing a division foe playing
with double revenge-exact and suddenly the Cardinals REALLY wish they would
have won SB XLIII, if you know what we mean…

NY JETS over Buffalo by 4
What a difference a year makes. After winning NFL Assistant Coach of the
Year honors with the Ravens in 2006, Jets head coach Rex Ryan was still toiling
on the sidelines in Baltimore. On the fl ip side, Bills boss Dick Jauron had been
commended on bringing Buffalo back to respectability. Here we are one
season later and Ryan is being hailed as a savior in the Big Apple while Jauron
is being treated like a philanderer. It’s amazing what a good – or poor – start
to a season can mean to one’s credibility. Good news for the Bills is the success
of the visitor in this series (5-1 ATS last six). That fi ts nicely into the Flyboys’
dismal 2-8 ATS mark in games after they have gone Fishing. Look for Buffi e
to make it six straight spread wins as dogs of more than six points. We’ll roam
with the herd here.

NEW ENGLAND over Tennessee by 7
A pairing of two dejected teams, one completely devastated – the other
disappointed – fi nds the Pats playing host to the Titans. You remember the
Titans, a 13-win playoff team last year and a card-carrying member of the
hero-to-zero club in 2009. The best news for this bunch is a Bye Week up next
(Tennessee is 6-2 ATS before the Bye Week). We also remember the Titans as a
team that is 20-6 ATS as a road dog against an opponent off a loss under head
coach Jeff Fisher, including 6-0 ATS if the foe was favored in the defeat. Then
there’s Bill Belichick, he of the amazing 14-1 ATS record as a home favorite
against an opponent off a division loss in his NFL career. Just when it looked
like we might fi nally remember the Titans, along comes Bill to snap us back
to reality

4* BEST BET
ATLANTA over Chicago by 14
A pairing of two NFC playoff hopefuls fi nds the Falcons returning home
off their destruction of a pretender (Niners) to host a contender (Bears)
under the Sunday night lights. A quick glance of Chicago’s log shows
a team riding a 3-0 SU and ATS win skein, despite the fact they were
outgained in all three contests. That’s never a good thing. According
to our database, rested teams off three exact wins and covers, the last
versus a division opponent, are 0-7 ATS against an opponent off a win
since 1990. To compound matters, the Windy City warriors are 0-7-1 ATS
in games off back-to-back SU and ATS wins, if the last win was by double
digits. The Falcons add fuel, having swept all four games last season
under head coach Mike Smith against the NFC North, going 4-0 SU and
ATS. Atlanta shows who the real contender is here tonight.

Monday, October 19

SAN DIEGO over Denver by 4
As badly as we want to snap the rubber band and lay the wood with the
Chargers in this ‘must-win’ Monday night affair against the 5-0 division-leading
Broncos, we must pay heed to the stat sheet. It’s there where we fi nd a Denver
running game and defense (over 100 yards) that owns the superior numbers.
Yes, San Diego fi ts the bill as a Monday Night ‘switcher’ (MNF home teams off a
road game playing an opponent off a home game) and they are 5-0 ATS in this
series (3-0 ATS here) and 3-0 ATS their last three Monday night appearances.
The Bolts are also 11-1 ATS against division foes off a SU underdog win while
the bucking Broncs are 1-12 ATS in division games off a SU dog win. If Denver
didn’t own the superior stat sheet and a 6-0 ATS mark as dogs against rested
AFC opponents, we’d be all over Diego like white on rice. It’s a good thing
we’re counting our carbs.

Red Sheet

Troy 38 - FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 16 - (7:00 EDT) -- Line opened at Troy minus 11, and is now minus
9½. Always dangerous Trojans (3 bowls in past 5 yrs), are finally clicking, after getting off to
a horrendous start, losing their first 2 games by a combined 87-20 score. Three straight
wins & covers, including last week's 31-7 wipeout (19-pt cover) of a decent Middle Tenn
squad, which had posted earlier wins over Memphis & Maryland. As far as the Panthers are
concerned, they've managed just 1 win, over winless WesternKy (entered that one with the
worst defense in the nation). Spread is more than reasonable for streaking Troy.
RATING: TROY 89

ALABAMA 41 - South Carolina 13 - (7:45) -- Line opened at Alabama minus 17, and is still minus 17. The
line in this one is certainly a bit scary, especially in light of the fact that the Gamecocks have
held 4-of-6 foes to 16 pts or less, ranking 14th in the land, defensively, before being stung for
26 pts by Kentucky. But this Tide squad is another matter, altogether. Not only the 3rdranked
defense (holding OleMiss to a single FD, along with a mere 19 total yds in the 1st half
of last week's showing), but an offense which checks in at number 14. Fully expect Spurrier
to have his troops ready, but the fact is, they are totally overmatched hr.
RATING: ALABAMA 89

Georgia 19 - VANDERBILT 16 - (12:20) -- Line opened at Georgia minus 8, and is now minus 7½. Repeat
of predicted score posted earlier on Pointwise. The Bulldogs are slipping by the week, with
their debacle at Tennessee (45-19 loss, 25-pt spread setback; no offensive TDs) dropping
them to just 3-3 for the season. They've averaged a mere 12 FDs the past 2 weeks, have
reached 100 RYs just twice all year, & are caught in a Vol/Gator sandwich. The 'Dores are
hardly anything to write home about, with this season nowhere near the quick starts of '07 &
'08. But they own a decent defense, & are rarely blown away. Tite.
RATING: VANDERBILT 88

Navy 48 - SMU 24 - (8:00) -- Line opened at Navy minus 8, and is now minus 7½. Still kicking ourselves for
not stepping out with the Middies a week ago, after calling for them, not only to win, but to
cover by 17 pts. Well their 63-14 rout of Rice (38-pt cover), along with their 450 RY edge
certainly lights the "Buy Sign" when taking on foes of this nature. They are led by jr QB
Dobbs (7 TDs last week: 4 running, 3 passing), & should continue vs a Mustang team which
not only fields the 95th "D" in the land, but ranks 117th in rushing (6 RYpg last 2 weeks).
Check allowing 30 pts to WashingtonSt's 115th ranked scoring "O". Romper!
RATING: NAVY 88

So California 45 - NOTRE DAME 20 - (3:30) -- Line opened at USC minus 11½, and is now minus 10. The
Irish have certainly been put to the test, in their last 4 contests. Note the scores of those 4:
38-34, 33-30, 24-21, & 37-30. So moving the ball behind Clausen (top-rated passer in the
nation: 68%, 1,544 yds, 12 TDs, & only 2 INTs) hasn't been a problem. It is that "D" (96th in
the land) which has enabled the opposition to stay with 'em. Well, the Trojans have no such
problem with their stop unit, as it ranks 5th best in the land (3rd in scoring). Total domination
at Cal in their last outing, allowing just 3 pt, an omen for this..
RATING: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 88

NEW ENGLAND 34 - Tennessee 13 - (4:15) -- Line opened at NewEngland minus 9, and is still minus 9.
Well, the Titans just continue with their collapse. Not only have they dropped all 5 games
this season, but their defense has been carved up to the tune of 34, 24, 37, & 31 pts the past
4 weeks. As we've written many times, they had held 18 of 21 opponents to 17 pts or less,
before the above failures. The defection of Haynesworth, along with a hurting secondary
has resulted in the dreaded word, "vulnerable". And no one better to exploit that lacking unit
than Brady & Co. And catching the Pats off a loss is pure poison. Lay it!
RATING: NEW ENGLAND 89

NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Fresno, Northwestern, Missouri, BYU -- NFL: Packers, Giants, Broncos

Nelly's Greensheet

RATING 5 PENN STATE (-16½) over Minnesota
RATING 4 IOWA STATE (-3) over Baylor
RATING 3 MEMPHIS (+11) over Southern Miss
RATING 2 NEBRASKA (-7) over Texas Tech
RATING 2 COLORADO (+10) over Kansas
RATING 1 BUFFALO (-10) over Akron
RATING 1 MIAMI, OH (+12½) over Ohio

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 16, 2009

Pittsburgh (-3) RUTGERS 6:30 PM
Pitt looked like completely different team late in last week’s game, rallying from a 15-point
deficit to win. Although Pittsburgh has not faced a heavyweight opponent this season they
have played four consecutive solid foes and could still be undefeated as they had a significant
lead in the lone loss at NC State. Rutgers was picked by many to win the Big East but they
opened the season with an embarrassing 47-15 home loss. Through an incredibly weak
stretch of games the Scarlet Knights are now 4-1 but the schedule played ranks 170th in the
nation by the Sagarin numbers. In the two toughest games faced by Rutgers, QB play has
been a serious problem and Pittsburgh should have the edge with veteran Bill Stull, even
though he can be turnover prone. Pittsburgh has nearly as strong rushing numbers for the
season despite a much tougher slate of games. The Panthers should get a boost from last
week’s impressive comeback win and Rutgers has been a marginal performer at home with
six S/U losses at Rutgers Stadium since 2007. PITTSBURGH BY 7

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 17, 2009

Texas (-3) Oklahoma at Dallas, TX 11:00 AM
As if Texas needed any extra motivation for this match-up but the Longhorns were passed in
the polls last week despite a solid 24-point win. The move was justified as the Longhorns have
just wins over Texas Tech and Colorado on the resume, both games came at home and
neither was overwhelmingly impressive. Oklahoma has played a significantly tougher
schedule and has two one-point losses to show for it. Last week Sam Bradford returned to
action and passed for 389 yards though some rust was evident. The Oklahoma defense has
been thoroughly impressive, giving up an average of just over eight points per game and
featuring some of the best numbers against the run in the nation. Texas technically has the
best rush defense in the nation but the schedule has provided little resistance and several
passing teams. This game will be played through the air and two big-name QBs will be on
display. Texas has covered in each of the last four meetings, winning three of those games
S/U but the Longhorns had a big turnover edge in last year’s game and also benefited from
injuries on the Sooner side. Oklahoma will certainly be undervalued with the two losses but
the Sooners have been more impressive and battled through tougher games. Texas has
typically come out flat in games this season and they won’t be able to simply turn it on against
the Sooners if they fall behind early. OKLAHOMA BY 7

BOSTON COLLEGE (-3) NC State 2:30 PM
Coach O’Brien’s move to NC State has not produced a lot of wins now in year three. Last
week’s lopsided home loss to Duke does not help the cause and two of the three wins on the
year came against FCS competition. Boston College has won both meetings since the
coaching swap and the Eagles are 7-1 ATS in the last eight lined home games. Coming off a
huge win over Florida State the Eagles clearly fell flat last week with a blowout loss to Virginia
Tech. Statistically the Eagles have been a horrible offensive team and the QB struggles have
been well documented. Freshmen Mike Marscovetra came on in relief and had some success
last week but the game was well out of hand at that point. Turnovers certainly were part of the
problem last week for State but the pass defense is a glaring issue after back-to-back games
of allowing huge numbers through the air. Boston College has had two disastrous road
performances this season but the Eagles are 4-0 at home although both ACC wins came by
slim margins. Boston College is not a team anyone should feel comfortable laying points with
and NC State is more likely to rebound this week. NC STATE BY 4

Ohio State (-13½) PURDUE 11:00 AM
The Buckeyes have won by essentially the same margin the past two weeks to narrowly cover
in Big Ten games but the games could not have been more different as the Buckeyes
dominated Indiana and could have won by a much wider margin while Wisconsin severely outgained
the Buckeyes but Ohio State scored two defensive touchdowns and also had a kickoff
return touchdown. QB Terrelle Pryor completed just five passes last week and the Buckeyes
only had 97 rushing yards. Purdue is 1-5 but the Boilermakers have faced a challenging
schedule and last week’s 15-point loss was by far the largest margin of defeat. Three
turnovers played a vital role in that game as Purdue looked like the superior squad in the first
half against Minnesota. Purdue has covered in four of the last five meetings in this series as
this has been a very low scoring series in recent years. The Boilers have out-gained
opponents in four of six games on the year but Purdue has lost 20 turnovers through six
games for one of the worst turnover margins in the nation. Both teams have played quality
schedules and given the series history and likely undervaluation of a 1-5 Purdue squad the
underdog mak es some sense here. OHIO STATE BY 10

Bowling Green (-5) BALL STATE 11:00 AM
A late rally gave Bowling Green its second win last week but the Falcons have played one of
the toughest schedules of all the MAC teams. Ball State is 0-6 a year after a 12-0 regular
season. The Cardinals have some of the worst rushing numbers in football with only 278
yards per game. Through a rather weak schedule Ball State is also giving up over 30 points
and over 400 yards per game. Ball State has struggled to run the ball and freshmen QB Kelly
Page has been erratic. Bowling Green features one of the top passing offenses in the nation
and the Falcons have scored 24 points per game despite a challenging schedule. Ball State
has been solid in the underdog role and now has covered in three of the last four games.
Meanwhile Bowling Green has failed to cover in four in a row. Each of Ball State’s home
losses came by seven or fewer points. BOWLING GREEN BY 4

MICHIGAN STATE (NL) Northwestern 11:00 AM
After three consecutive losses Michigan State has rebounded with back-to-back wins beating
Michigan and avoiding a letdown with a win at Illinois. Turnovers have been a problem for the
Spartans but this is a team that has out-gained opponents by nearly 100 yards per game on
average despite a 3-3 record. Michigan State is among the nation’s leaders in sacks but they
have had protection problems of their own. Northwestern is 4-2 with two narrow losses but the
schedule has rated far easier than Michigan State’s. The road team has actually won four in a
row in this series in what has meant very high scoring games the past few years. Despite a
fairly soft schedule Northwestern has seen its rushing yards drop substantially from last
season and the Wildcats have also struggled on special teams. Michigan State appears to be
the better team but Northwestern can score points and could be a dangerous underdog in this
match-up. Michigan State has made plenty of mistakes on offense and the defense has not
held leads well so far this season. MICHIGAN STATE BY 7

Iowa (-1) WISCONSIN 11:00 AM
The Hawkeyes are still undefeated after another escape last week. Turnovers were a big help
for the Hawkeyes last week as the offense had shaky production. Iowa has had great recent
success in this series covering in six of the last seven with five S/U wins in that span. The
Badgers could have easily fared better last week as they had plenty of production against
Ohio State’s stingy defense but two interceptions were returned for touchdowns and another
score came against the UW special teams. Iowa is going to be a road favorite here with a 6-0
record while carrying the banner for the Big Ten. Wisconsin has the best rushing offense in
the conference and they could be an attractive home underdog in this match-up. The Badgers
have out-rushed every opponent this season and Iowa has not been the great rushing team
they were a year ago, so far averaging about 60 fewer yards per game. Turnovers have been
killer for the Badgers however and they may not be able to close out this game. IOWA BY 3

Virginia (-4) MARYLAND 3:00 PM
Maryland scored late to make last week’s loss look more respectable but the Terrapins were
dominated in every way in that game. While Virginia had a disastrous 0-3 start to the season
including a loss to FCS William & Mary the Cavaliers have stormed back with back-to-back
wins. Over the last two weeks Virginia has out-scored opponents 63-10 and last week’s effort
was completely dominant. Last season Virginia shut out Maryland 31-0 but the Cavs also won
just one road game all of last season. This will be the homecoming match-up and a critical
game for Maryland after an ugly loss last week. Maryland is actually getting more efficient QB
play then Virginia although the Cavalier rushing attack has been superior. Through fairly
similar quality schedules Virginia’s defense has been much more successful and Virginia has
done a much better job of taking care of the ball. Although this could be a tricky road game as
Maryland should give one of its best efforts of the year Virginia may be able to sneak by and
keep the winning streak alive. Maryland may have another upset in them at some point but the
rushing and defensive edges will be too much. VIRGINIA BY 7

CLEMSON (-6½) Wake Forest 11:00 AM
The Tigers have had two weeks to sort through a stunning loss to Maryland in its last game. A
popular ACC favorite for the second straight year Clemson is now 2-3 and some of the
toughest games on the schedule still lie ahead. At 4-2 Wake Forest has been a bit of a
surprise contender in the ACC and both losses came by just three points. In contrast to past
Deacon squads this is a pass-first team and veteran QB Riley Skinner has put together a fine
season. Clemson still owns excellent defensive numbers and three losses came by a
combined total of ten points. The offense has struggled for the Tigers but the Tigers have
faced one of the tougher schedules in the country with several strong defenses included.
Wake Forest has covered in six of the last seven meetings but Clemson is the far superior
defensive team with great numbers against the pass. QB Kyle Parker is completing less than
50 percent of his passes but there should be a great game plan this week. CLEMSON BY 10

IOWA STATE (-3) Baylor 6:00 PM
The Cyclones have taken narrow defeats the last two weeks but some confidence should be
gained from a strong effort at Kansas last week. Iowa State is not often a favorite and they
have not played well in the role but Baylor is not the same team with the loss of QB Robert
Griffin. Baylor’s defense has been very marginal against the run and Iowa State is rushing for
209 yards per game. Defensively the Cyclones have had trouble getting key stops but this is
an improving team. Baylor won easily in this match-up last season but Griffin accounted for
three touchdowns and had a near perfect passing day. ISU QB Austin Arnaud has seven
touchdowns and no interceptions in his last four games and the Cyclones should have the
edge in this match-up. Baylor has been a dangerous underdog the last two years but this is
also a team with just six S/U road wins since 2001. IOWA STATE BY 10

MISSISSIPPI (-22) Uab 6:00 PM
This is really a tough spot on the schedule for Ole Miss. All the season goals were wiped
away with last week’s loss and they now must face a UAB squad that has shown some punch.
Injuries and turnovers helped the cause but the Blazers are coming off a big win over
Southern Miss in the last game and they have had over two weeks to foc us on this game.
Mississippi QB Jevan Snead has really struggled this season with a 46% completion
percentage and nine interceptions. The Ole Miss defense has shown greatness at times but is
still bending more than it needs to. The three wins for Ole Miss have come against Memphis,
SE Louisiana, and Vanderbilt so in reality this is a team that has really proven nothing despite
the expectations. UAB is rushing for nearly 230 yards per game and although the defense has
been easy to score on, Ole Miss has not proven capable of putting up a big number and the
Rebels figure to be in a problematic emotional state this week. OLE MISS BY 16

Georgia (-7½) VANDERBILT 11:20 AM
The Bulldogs defense has disappeared, allowing over 30 points per game and hitting a low -
point last week with a 45-19 loss to a Tennessee squad that had been struggling to score.
Georgia is now just 3-3 and this is a team that is getting few stops, struggling to run the ball
and producing tons of turnovers on offense. Vanderbilt is coming off a v ery disturbing loss to
Army and after a breakout bowl season in 2008 it would be surprising if the Commodores won
another game. This may actually be the best shot. Vandy’s defense has done a nice job this
season but the offense has scored just 19 points in three SEC games. Last year Vanderbilt
lost by just ten in Athens and the Commodores have covered in each of the last three
meetings in this series. QB Larry Smith has had some costly mistakes this season and he has
three times as many interceptions as touchdown passes. Georgia is not a team that should
not be trusted and the Bulldogs are overvalued here. GEORGIA BY 4

AUBURN (-13) Kentucky 6:30 PM
As it goes in the SEC, Kentucky has faced a brutally tough schedule and three straight losses
are the result. In a very even game the Wildcats ended up just short last week against South
Carolina. Kentucky is doing an excellent job rushing the ball but Auburn has been even better
on the ground this season. Fumbles were a big problem for Auburn last week as the Tigers
got behind early and suffered its first loss of the season. After facing three consecutive
outstanding defenses Kentucky will have more opportunities this week as Auburn has been
very average on defense, allowing 370 yards per game. Auburn has been lousy in the favorite
role in recent years and the 5-0 start may have been a bit phony as the Tigers were fortunate
to sneak out wins in two of the games. Kentucky could benefit from playing against the top two
SEC teams early in the year and will be a bit undervalued given the record. AUBURN BY 7

TEMPLE (-10) Army 12:00 PM
Army delivered a big upset win last week and at 3-3 it has already been a successful season
for Coach Ellerson in his first year at West Point. Army has won just three games each of the
last three seasons and there should be opportunities to surpass that number the rest of the
way. Temple has quietly won three consecutive games and the Owls have not allowed more
than 19 points in any of those games. Temple has enjoyed a significant turnover edge for the
year but the ground game has carried the team to success the past three games. Temple has
played often as favorites in recent years and for good reason but the Owls did beat Army 35-7
last season. It was an odd game however as the Owls had just 250 yards of offense as two
non-offensive touchdowns were included in the score. Although Army has been out-gained the
last four games, none of the margins have been large and this is a team that could be a threat
in the underdog role with a capable defense and a consistent rushing attack. TEMPLE BY 6

Central Michigan (-7) WESTERN MICHIGAN 2:30 PM
The Chippewas are on a five-game winning streak and Central has won three consecutive
games in this series. Surprisingly given the typical strong defense, Western Michigan has
struggled ATS at home in recent years and the Broncos will be back at home after splitting on
the road the last two weeks. Western has battled through a tougher schedule and the last
home meetings between these teams was a very tough and questionable loss for the Broncos
as the calls did not go their way. Central Michigan is allowing less than 15 points per game but
the schedule has inflated the statistics in this match-up. Central did not exactly dominate in its
lone conference road game so far and this will be a tough rivalry battle. CENTRAL BY 6

AIR FORCE (-10½) Wyoming 1:00 PM
The Falcons lost by just three against TCU last week but some breaks were caught to keep
the game that close. Air Force did rush for 229 yards against a very good defense in tough
weather conditions and statistically for the season Air Force has been excellent on both sides
of the ball while also benefiting from the top turnover margin in the nation. It may be a bit of
surprise to see Wyoming at 4-2 following a 4-win 2008 season but the Cowboys have scored
30 points in three straight games and are also 2-0 in Mountain West play. The schedule is
tough from here on out but one more upset could land the Cowboys in a bowl game. While
Wyoming has faced two Big XII teams the wins have come against weak competition for the
most part. Wyoming has also been well plus in turnovers for the year. Historically the location
has made a huge difference but this has been a competitive series. AIR FORCE BY 9

OHIO (-12½) Miami, OH 1:00 PM
Miami is now 0-6 on the year but the Redhawks have covered the last two weeks against
major conference foes. Miami has faced the toughest schedule of any MAC team and this
team has turned the ball over 22 times on the year featuring the worst turnov er margin in the
nation. Opponents are scoring nearly 37 points per game against Miami and Ohio can move
to 5-2 and 3-0 conference play with a win at home. The Bobcats have caught some breaks in
the wins this season and despite the winning record this team has been severely out-gained
on average for the year with the win over FCS Cal-Poly the only game where the yardage
battle was won. Ohio has won three consecutive games this series but Miami may be getting
too many points here as the team is showing some signs of improvement. Statistically through
a tougher schedule Miami has posted more yards than Ohio despite the drastically different
scoring numbers and the Bobcats might letdown a bit after a big win. OHIO BY 3

Nevada (-10) UTAH STATE 2:00 PM
After a 0-3 start, Nevada has exploded the last two weeks with huge numbers in back-to-back
wins. Both games came at home however and this is not a team that has played well away
from home. Utah State lost to New Mexico State last week despite a nearly 200 yard
advantage. Turnovers were not the issue but the Aggies continually failed on third down plays.
Last season at home Nevada won 44-17 but won by just three against a much worse Utah
State team on the road in 2007. Utah State is just 1-4 but the schedule has been very difficult.
Going against the top rushing team in the nation is dangerous but Nevada is 2-6 the last three
years as a road favorite and there have been some ugly performances from this team while
turnovers have been a serious problem. Utah State has an experienced team and the losses
have been respectable until last week and this could be a fired up squad. NEVADA BY 7

PENN STATE (-16½) Minnesota 2:30 PM
The Gophers moved to 4-2 with a big 3rd quarter last week and Minnesota finally had some
success on the ground although much of the yardage came late in the game. Statistically
Minnesota has been out-gained in five consecutive games while Penn State has won the
yardage battle every week. The last meeting between these teams was an excruciating loss
for Minnesota as the Gophers scored first in overtime but missed the extra-point to set up a
Penn State 1-point win. Both QBs came into the season with high praise but neither has
delivered a great start at the midway point as they have combined for 15 interceptions. The
Nittany Lions have played an embarrassingly easy schedule but they did dominate Illinois on
the road and the loss to Iowa was built on turnovers in tough conditions. The Gophers have
been a bit fortunate in all four wins and they could get taken out this week as the Penn State
defense will be tough to run against and the Lions should have opportunities. PENN ST BY 27

WEST VIRGINIA (-19½) Marshall 2:30 PM
The Thundering Herd should fare well in conference play but this will be a difficult match-up.
West Virginia does a lot of the things that Marshall does well a bit better and the Herd offense
could struggle to keep up. Both teams run the ball well and play solid defense but West
Virginia has never lost to Marshall. The Herd has also not typically been a strong road team
despite two wins this season. Marshall has been out-gained by about 60 yards per game on
the year and West Virginia has been a dominant statistical team and would be undefeated still
if not for turnovers. Last season West Virginia won 27-3 and Marshall was blown out in its first
major conference test. West Virginia is poised to crack the top 25 with a win so there should
be a solid focus. Marshall would normally be an underdog worth backing with a strong ground
game but West Virginia has an even better rushing attack. WEST VIRGINIA BY 27

ALABAMA (-17) South Carolina 12:00 PM
South Carolina struggled a bit last week but found a way to win and the Gamecocks are now
5-1 and appear a much bigger threat in the SEC than some of the more heralded programs.
Alabama won with relative ease last week despite settling often for field goals but the offense
has enjoyed a big yardage margin in every game this season. Despite several large spreads
the Tide are also 5-1 ATS and have looked every bit as one of the best teams in the nation
through a very tough schedule. Nick Saban has never beat Steve Spurrier and the coaches
will grab a lot of attention in this match-up. On defense Alabama is allowing just 220 yards per
game but there could be a bit of a letdown for this game even in a homecoming week as so
much attention was placed on the Ole Miss match-up as a division title type game. Alabama is
getting great all-around play but South Carolina ha typically risen up to play its best in the
biggest games. The Tide stay perfect but it could be a closer game. ALABAMA BY 10

Usc (-11½) NOTRE DAME 2:30 PM
Both teams are 4-1 through challenging schedules but this is not considered an even matchup.
Notre Dame has needed a narrow escape each of the last three games and the off week
should help a team that has battled injuries. QB Jimmy Clausen has delivered a great season
with some of the best numbers in the nation so the Irish should have a QB edge as Matt
Barkley may not be 100 percent and has completed just 58 percent of his passes with only
three touchdowns. USC dominated its last game at Cal but the running game was less
impressive. On defense USC is allowing just over eight points per game compared with nearly
24 from Notre Dame. USC has covered in six of the last seven games in this series but this
could be a game where Notre Dame is able to keep up. USC BY 10

California (-3½) UCLA 2:30 PM
The home team has won nine in a row in this series and UCLA has been a very impressive
ATS team at home in recent years. The Bears were off last week but it may be hard to
recapture the focus for this team after back-to-back losses. UCLA lost to Oregon last week,
playing much more respectably than the Bears did in the match-up. UCLA led 3-0 at the half
before a stunning 3rd quarter explosion from the Ducks. QB Kevin Prince returned for UCLA
but he was mainly ineffective and was eventually replaced. The UCLA defense has
outstanding numbers and Cal QB Kevin Riley has not had a strong season and the running
game has also disappeared the last two weeks. The underdog has had great success in this
series and the trends are tough to ignore. Although Cal is rested the Bears have been a fragile
and streaky team in recent years and the psyche of the team could be problematic in another
tough game. A lot of people lost on UCLA last week but another dog shot is here. UCLA BY 3

Houston (-19½) TULANE 2:30 PM
The quality of the three non-conference wins for Houston is impressive but the loss to UTEP is
a serious stain that will not be easy to get past. QB Case Keenum has ridiculous numbers and
the Cougars beat Tulane 42-14 last season with a 425 yard edge. After a rough start to the
year Tulane has given better performances the last three weeks and last week’s loss was a bit
misleading as Tulane was productive. Houston’s defense is allowing 39 points per game but
the Cougars can post huge numbers on offense to make up for it. Coming off another big nonconference
win Houston can win again but this will be the third consecutive week away from
home. Houston has covered in six straight in this series and Tulane is a lousy home underdog
which could mean big numbers for the Cougars. HOUSTON BY 24

NEBRASKA (-7) Texas Tech 2:30 PM
A fourth quarter wake-up gave Nebraska a big win last week and the Cornhuskers appear to
be the top team in the Big XII North. This will be a challenging game as Texas Tech can still
post big numbers and back-up QB Steven Sheffield has filled in smoothly, already with eleven
touchdown passes on 75 percent completions. Nebraska has out-gained every opponent and
covered in every game and the sizable rushing edge in this match-up should pay dividends.
Nebraska is only allowing eight points per game and the Texas Tech defense has been
marginal as usual. Last season a much better Tech team needed overtime to get by the
Cornhuskers so this will be a key revenge game and Texas Tech is 0-2 on the road this
season. This line is kept in check with Tech’s reputation but in terms of what has actually
happened on the field this season the Huskers rate as the much stronger squad. The better
defense and running game should prevail in Lincoln. NEBRASKA BY 17

Texas A&M (-5) KANSAS STATE 6:00 PM
After a 4-0 start, the Aggies have dropped back-to-back games but they faced quality teams.
A&M has posted huge yardage numbers for the season with 512 yards per game but the
defense has proven to be unreliable. Kansas State is 3-3 but this is a team that has not
posted great offensive numbers even against a fairly weak group of opposing defenses. Last
season Kansas State won 44-30 in game that Texas A&M had a significant yardage
advantage as Jerrod Johnson passed for 419 yards. Both teams have three wins through
weak schedules but A&M has shown much more promise with an offense that moves the ball
consistently. The Aggies have not had much success as a road team and this will be just the
second away game of the year. Kansas State is 2-0 at home with a surprisingly road heavy
early season schedule. The numbers don’t add up for the Wildcats and A&M is coming off
back-to-back tough losses and should rebound. TEXAS A&M BY 13

Virginia Tech (-3) GEORGIA TECH 5:00 PM
Tech has climbed high in the rankings with a blowout win over Miami, the one team that
Georgia Tech lost to and the Hokies dominated last week against Boston College. Virginia
Tech has failed to cover in both away games this season and last year this was a very tight
game with Georgia Tech winning the yardage battle but losing the game. Both teams have
much better defenses than the numbers suggest but the schedules have been among the
toughest in the nation so far this year. Virginia Tech has played well in the road favorite role
but GT is a strong home underdog. Given the great rush attack for the Yellow Jackets there
could an advantage with the home underdog, even coming off a big win. While the Hokies
clearly have the ability to justify the top 5 ranking this is a team that has shown inconsistency
and the Jackets are dangerous as underdogs. GEORGIA TECH BY 3

OKLAHOMA STATE (NL) Missouri 8:15 PM
These teams do not play every year but this has been a tightly contested match-up the last
few times they have locked up. Both teams have one loss and Missouri’s loss came last week
despite not allowing a point through three quarters. Oklahoma State has lost its star WR and
leading rusher Kendall Hunter did not play last week but the Cowboys still did enough to
sneak out with a victory. Missouri QB Blaine Gabbert has enjoyed a strong season but his
ankle could be a problem this week and his loss w ould be critical for the Tigers. Statistically
Missouri has been a little stronger on defense while OSU has been a bit more productive on
offense but the Tigers have played the tougher schedule. Injuries make a serious call on this
game tough but the Cowboys will be tough to beat at home and Missouri could face a tough
bounce back week after a brutal primetime loss last week. OKLAHOMA STATE BY 14

EAST CAROLINA (-20) Rice 2:30 PM
Rice is 0-6 on the season but the Owls have had to use three different QBs and none has had
great success. East Carolina is just 3-3 and last week’s loss to SMU was frustrating as the
Pirates had 24 first downs but big plays surrendered doomed the cause. ECU is scoring just
21 points per game and posting around 308 yards per game while allowing significantly more.
Rice has earned a few covers but the Owls have been allowing 44 points per game. All three
of East Carolina’s wins have come by five points or less and even last season’s championship
squad had just one blowout win of more than 20 points. Rice has endured a stronger schedule
and the Owls scored in double-digits in every game which will add to the difficulty of covering
a 20-point spread. East Carolina is just 3-9 ATS in the last twelve games as favorites and this
will be a tough figure to surpass. EAST CAROLINA BY 10

BUFFALO (-11) Akron 2:30 PM
Akron scored just seven points last week and the QB situation has been a mess since the
suspension of senior Chris Jacquemain who the Zips were expected to be a MAC contender
with. Akron covered in both games before the suspension but is 0-3 S/U and ATS since as
back-up Matt Rodgers had one touchdown and six interceptions before being injured. True
freshman Patrick Nicely is expected to be under center this week. Buffalo QB Zach May nard
has filled the role capably though the Bulls are just 2-4. Buffalo has out-gained four of the last
five opponents despite just one win. Through comparable schedules the Bulls have posted far
more impressive numbers on offense, averaging 405 yards per game and Buffalo has been
slightly better on defense as well. Last season Buffalo needed OT to get by the Zips but the
task appears less difficult this season and even though Buffalo has not been a great ATS
team at home with two covers in the past seven games . BUFFALO BY 20

TCU (-19½) Colorado State 3:00 PM
Out first true glimpse of winter football emerged last week in the Rocky Mountain state as
Colorado was on the verge of an upset over Utah before a late collapse at home and TCU
survived several key mistakes in Colorado Springs against Air Force. Last season these
teams played a tight game with TCU winning by just six points but it was a game that TCU
starting QB Andy Dalton missed. This season Dalton has been efficient but far from prolific as
TCU is a team carried by its defense, currently allowing just 15 points and 250 yards per
game. A big game at BYU is up next for the Horned Frogs but there should be no overlooking
the Rams even despite a three-game CSU losing streak. TCU is 14-4 in the last 18 games as
home favorites and the Frogs should pull away if they avoid the costly red zone turnovers from
last week. Colorado State could be without confidence after blowing a big lead mainly due to
three consecutive possessions ending in interceptions to clos e the game. TCU BY 24

LOUISIANA TECH (-17) New Mexico State 3:00 PM
New Mexico State has been out-gained in every single game but first year Coach Walker has
matched last season’s win total already with three 3-point victories. The Aggies have played
an exceptionally weak schedule but they have pounced on a few early season opportunities.
Defensively the numbers have been much better this season for New Mexico State and the
offense is starting to show small steps of progress. Louisiana Tech failed in primetime last
week but the Bulldogs are 2-0 S/U and ATS at home this season. These teams have played
exceptionally close games the last two years however and this line is significantly higher than
either of those match-ups. Louisiana Tech’s defense has allowed over 400 yards per game
and RB Daniel Porter may be unable to go this week. LA TECH BY 10

Kent State (-4) EASTERN MICHIGAN 3:00 PM
The Flashes have wins over a FCS school and Miami, OH which appears to be one of the
worst FBS teams in the nation. Still Kent has won twice which is more than can be said for
Eastern Michigan. The Eagles lost their starting QB early in the year and the defense has
been discouraging, with over 500 yards allowed last week in a big rivalry game. Kent enters
this game off a v ery tough loss as the Flashes were out-scored 19-7 in the fourth quarter to
lose by one last week. Kent will now play as a road favorite which has not been a favorable
position. Eastern Michigan has been soundly out-gained in every game but the Eagles have
played a far tougher schedule. The opportunities for wins are limited for Eastern Michigan and
this should be one of the best shots. EASTERN MICHIGAN BY 3

IDAHO (-12) Hawaii 4:00 PM
Idaho is 5-1 S/U and 6-0 ATS on the season and with five S/U wins as underdogs the
adjustment has been made. The Vandals will play as double-digit favorites against a team that
has out-scored them 165-47 in the past three meetings and Hawaii has won and covered
each of the last five games in this series. Hawaii was forced to go with a back-up QB last
week and despite the lopsided margin the Warriors did compete in the match-up statistically
after falling behind. Fresno State and Louisiana Tech should be two of the better teams in the
WAC so the losses may not be as bad as they currently look. Idaho is just 7-16 as favorites
since ’99 and although substantial improvement has been shown the lines have caught on
and each of the last four wins for the Vandals came by four points or less. Idaho will have a
great opportunity to become bowl eligible after going 3-21 the last two seasons but covering a
double-digit spot may not be in the works yet. Idaho has been relatively easy to pass against
and Hawaii could have some opportunities in the air. IDAHO BY 4

Byu (-17½) SAN DIEGO STATE 5:00 PM
The Cougars improved to 2-0 in conference play with a lopsided win last week and BYU will
face a second straight road game although this is a team that is 3-0 S/U and ATS away from
home this season. San Diego State has just two wins to show for it but the Aztecs have shown
improvement this season. SDSU won just twice all of last year and the losses came in
competitive games against three likely bowl bound teams, all on the road. SDSU has won
both home games and redeeming a 41-12 blowout form last season will be a big priority,
especially with two weeks to prepare for this game. BYU may be the top team in the Mountain
West but this could be a tough spot as a homecoming match-up with TCU is up next week.
That game in all likelihood will decide the conference champion and the Cougars will be
looking to make sure no one can go undefeated in this league. The trends are not promising
for SDSU but the staff seems to have this team headed in the right direction. BYU BY 14