ARIZONA (-6) Stanford 6:30 PM
There are not many ways to lose more painfully than Arizona did last week. The Wildcats
appeared to have a win locked up as they basically just needed to pick up one first down and
kill some clock or at worst could have punted and left Washington with very little time. A fluky
interception for a touchdown was the final result capping a blown 12-point lead in the final four
minutes. Stanford was down big at the half last week before late scoring disguised the loss as
a competitive effort. The Cardinal lost a three game winning streak and winning on the road
has been much tougher. Arizona has played one of the toughest schedules in the nation and
statistically has been the superior squad. The major concern will be surviving the emotional
fallout from a terribly tough loss. ARIZONA BY 13
Illinois (-3) INDIANA 6:00 PM
No matter how high the preseason projection, at a certain point you have to throw out the
perception and just look at what has happened on the field. That is the case with Illinois a
team expected to be a sleeper in the Big Ten. The changes in the offense have not gone
smoothly and a QB change last week met a similar result. Illinois has faced one of the
toughest schedules of Big Ten teams so far this season but the numbers are staggering as
Illinois has been out-gained by over 100 yards in every FBS match-up. Indiana started the
season 3-0 but now has lost three straight, the last in blowout fashion. Even with that 47-7
loss factored in the Hoosiers have better per game scoring and production numbers for the
season on both sides of the ball. Illinois clobbered the Hoosiers last season 55-13 which may
be why the Illini are road favorites here. Indiana has shown much more potential on offense
however and the ugly loss last week could bring better focus this week. INDIANA BY 7
SOUTHERN MISS (-11) Memphis 6:00 PM
Memphis won with relative ease and the Tigers got a strong game from QB Will Hudgens, one
of three QBs that have played significantly this season. With a back-up QB in last week
Southern Miss suffered its third straight loss and it came in a painful way as the Golden
Eagles took the lead with about two minutes to go but yielded a final drive for the gamewinning
field goal with seconds to go. Last week’s game was a third consecutive road contest
for Southern Miss after starting 3-0 at home. Southern Miss has just one ATS win on the
season however and given the injuries this may be a steep spread. Memphis has won outright
in four the of the past five meetings and the Tigers have been a perennial bowl team that has
typically started slow, opening 0-3 last year and 1-3 in 2007 before rallying for bowl seasons.
Southern Miss is just 5-10 in the last 15 games as home favorites and coming off a painful
loss with a back-up QB starting is not an ideal situation to lay double-digits. MEMPHIS BY 3
Northern Illinois (NL) TOLEDO 6:00 PM
Toledo QB Aaron Opelt who already has 14 touchdowns and nearly 1,800 passing yards is
likely out for this game with a shoulder injury. The Rockets were still productive without Opelt
and the main issues on this team still start with defense as Toledo is allowing 454 yards per
game. NIU crushed Toledo last season but the Rockets have been a historically strong home
team. The last game for each of these teams was against Western Michigan with the Huskies
winning big and the Rockets losing big. Northern Illinois is 4-1 ATS on the season and this
should be one of the top teams in the MAC. The Huskies rush for over 200 yards per game
and although Toledo has had great success in this series NIU appears to be the much better
team. There will be no lack of focus coming out of a bye week and this should be a
reasonable line even with the QB situation as the Rockets are one of the better known MAC
teams and have a reputation for putting up points. NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY 14
CONNECTICUT (-11½) over Louisville 11:00 AM
The Huskies blew a sizable lead last week but UConn is still perfect ATS on the year.
Connecticut had trouble tackling last week but the defense is allowing just 17 points per game
and only 283 yards per game. A narrow escape for Louisville avoided a four-game losing
streak and the Cardinals again played with a back-up QB. Connecticut has covered in four of
the last five meetings between these teams and the Huskies have been a formidable home
team. Connecticut is a solid rushing team that also is tough to run on and even in an atypical
role as a sizable favorite this should be a favorable situation. Louisville is 3-9 S/U on the road
under Coach Kragthorpe and the Cardinals have not played a difficult schedule. UConn QB
Cody Endres has not thrown an interception this season and he has capably filled in and the
Huskies should have an edge at QB and on the ground. CONNECTICUT BY 14
Kansas (-10) COLORADO 6:00 PM
The Jayhawks are 5-0 but the margins have been slimmer and slimmer the last few weeks.
Kansas is scoring 40 points per game but the defense is also allowing significant yardage.
Colorado is just 1-4 on the season for a very disappointing start but the Buffaloes have played
the toughest schedule of any Big XII team while Kansas has played the weakest slate. This
will be just the second road game of the season for KU and Colorado owns a solid track
record as a home underdog. This was a very tight match-up last season until two 4th quarter
Kansas scores led to some breathing room. Kansas owns a clear edge at QB but the early
season schedule and rising national ranking are quite suspect. Oklahoma is next on the
schedule and it would not be a surprise if Kansas got caught here. KANSAS BY 4
Miami, FL (-15½) CENTRAL FLORIDA 6:30 PM
The brutally tough schedule for the Hurricanes finally has softened a bit and the Hurricanes
won with relative ease last week against Florida A&M. Last season Miami beat UCF just 20-14
and this will be a much bigger game for the underdog taking a shot at one of the elite
programs in the state. Miami has a very long injury report following back-to-back games
against physical defenses in Oklahoma and Virginia Tech and the Hurricanes may still be
slightly overrated as the wins over Oklahoma and Florida State just are not as impressive as
expected at this point in the year even though they seemed like big wins at the time. Central
Florida has superior scoring defense numbers in this match-up and also has been far better
against the run. The schedules are obviously not comparable but UCF has had two weeks to
prepare for this game and Miami has Clemson next in line. UCF is 3-0 at home this season
and Miami is just 3-9 in the last twelve games as road favorites. Miami lost badly in its
toughest road game and easily could have lost the other road game. MIAMI BY 13
FLORIDA (-24) Arkansas 11:00 AM
Tim Tebow did play last week in case you missed the constant stream of updates throughout
the day about college football’s latest royalty. The offense stalled a bit for the Gators in a very
tough venue but Florida’s defense completely dominated. Arkansas is a team on the rise after
impressive wins the last two weeks over then undefeated squads. The Razors have played a
much tougher schedule than Florida and the experience of playing at Alabama already should
help the cause. Arkansas QB Ryan Mallet has nearly double the yards and touchdowns that
Tebow has this season and Arkansas will bring an aggressive game plan to the table. A
letdown after the LSU game could make this a tricky situation. FLORIDA BY 21
Navy (-7) SMU 7:00 PM
The Midshipmen clobbered Rice last week but now face a tricky second straight road game
back to Texas in the ultimate run versus pass match-up. Both teams are averaging 362 yards
per game on offense but through very different channels. Navy’s defense has been
substantially better statistically but SMU has played a slightly tougher schedule and the
Mustangs are 2-0 at home following a nice upset win over East Carolina last week. Last
season Navy won easily in this match-up but SMU has the potential to be one of the most
improved teams in the country, already having tripled the win total from 2008. The trends and
numbers add up to Navy controlling this game but this looks like a challenging situation and
this is a curious line that may suggest a dog winner. NAVY BY 3
ARIZONA STATE (-3½) Washington 9:15 PM
Washington has played the hardest schedule in the nation and the Huskies have somehow
managed to go 3-3 despite being winless in 2008. Last week’s win was a true magic act and
the Huskies are 0-2 S/U in road games this year. Arizona State has played the easiest
schedule in the Pac-10 by a wide margin and this is a tough team to gauge at this point. The
defensive statistics are outstanding, allowing almost half the yardage allowed by UW while
being just as productive on offense. ASU has a strong history in the home favorite role and the
Sun Devils have won and covered in five straight meetings between these teams. Although
there are some concerns as Washington is more battle tested ASU looks promising enough
that they could win catching Washington in a letdown and long travel. This was a team that
was projected highly last season and could still be under the radar. ARIZONA STATE BY 6
Utah (-16) UNLV 9:00 PM
These teams have combined to go 2-8 ATS on the season but Utah has been strong
statistical performer on both sides of the ball. This will be the fourth road game in five games
for the Utes and UNLV has been a decent home underdog historically. The Rebels have been
absolutely crushed against the run the past two weeks however and opponents are averaging
476 yards per game against UNLV. Turnovers have also been serious problem for the Rebels
and the offense is not explosive enough to play catch-up. Utah was lucky to win last week as
they were is serious trouble of snapping their conference win streak but the defense made
some big plays for a late rally. The narrow loss to Oregon does not look too bad at this point
and the Utes may not have dropped off as far as some expected. UNLV won 27-0 the last
time Utah visited but the Rebel defense can not be relied on. UTAH BY 17
FRESNO STATE (-19) San Jose State 9:00 PM
In past years Fresno State may have been overvalued early in the year but three early losses
may have the Bulldogs as a play -on team still. Fresno State has out-gained all five opponents
this season and that includes two undefeated top ten teams and three road games all
requiring extensive travel. A hangover from playing in Hawaii is possible but San Jose State
has really struggled to move the ball so far this season and the Bulldogs are averaging nearly
210 more rushing yards per game. Fresno has covered in five of the last six in this series and
although the Bulldogs have struggled in the home favorite role this should be a very favorable
match-up. San Jose State enters this game off a tough home loss and this is not a team that
often performs well on the road. FRESNO BY 24
Louisiana (-7½) WESTERN KENTUCKY 3:00 PM
Western Kentucky is 0-5 and the yardage numbers have been staggering, allowing over 280
rushing yards per game. Louisiana has not been a great force on the ground but the
opportunities should be there this week. The Ragin’ Cajuns have won all three games that
they realistically had a chance in including an upset over Kansas State and the defensive
numbers are skewed with lopsided losses to LSU and Nebraska. Western Kentucky is down
to QB #2 already and this is a team that has won ATS win at home since moving to the FBS
level. Louisiana is 4-0 the last four attempts as a road favorite. LOUISIANA BY 13
Troy (-9½) FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 6:00 PM
After a 0-2 start with two poor performances Troy appears back on track with three
consecutive wins and covers including knocking out the two chief rivals in the Sun Belt.
Florida International picked up its first win last week it has been a disappointing start for an
experienced Panthers team that looked poised to make a step forward after five wins in 2008.
FIU has been out-gained by over 140 yards per game and the Panthers have been thoroughly
out-rushed on the season. FIU has covered the last two years in this series but Troy has been
a sound road favorite and this will be a rested team that can’t letdown. TROY BY 16
NORTH TEXAS (-1½) Florida Atlantic 7:00 PM
Florida Atlantic is 0-4 on the season despite bowl trips the past two years and the Owls are
coming off back-to-back painfully close losses at home. Last season AFAU crushed North
Texas 46-13 but even though the Mean Green is just 1-4 they are a greatly improved squad.
North Texas has lost three games where they have out-gained the opponent and despite
facing Alabama UNT is still plus in net yardage for the year, something FAU is not even close
to. Interceptions were very costly for North Texas last week and although QB Riley Dodge has
shown a lot of potential he is still just a freshman and getting his first NCAA playing time.
Rusty Smith leads a veteran offense for the Owls and he has been efficient without making
too many mistakes. FAU should have a great opportunity to finally get in the win column as
North Texas has not been able to close out games. FLORIDA ATLANTIC BY 7
Mississippi State (-4) MID TENNESSEE STATE 11:30 AM
The Bulldogs are just 2-4 but there have been some painfully close losses against quality
teams. MSU out-gained LSU and Georgia Tech and also could have won against Houston last
week had a few key plays went differently. Last season the Bulldogs beat MTSU 31-22 in a
fairly even statistical game and the biggest issue this season has been turnovers. Mississippi
State has turned the ball over 18 times this year robbing what could have been a few solid
upsets and maybe a run at a bowl trip. Middle Tennessee has had two weeks to prepare for
this game and already has wins over Maryland and Memphis on the season. This will be just
the second home game for the Blue Raiders and the first home game was by far the best
effort of the season. MTSU BY 3
RATING 5 NEW ORLEANS (-3) over NY Giants
RATING 4 KANSAS CITY (+6½) over Washington
RATING 3 SEATTLE (-3) over Arizona
RATING 2 DETROIT (+11) over Green Bay
RATING 1 MINNESOTA (-3) over Baltimore
WASHINGTON (-6½) Kansas City (38) 12:00 PM
The Chiefs have actually been a significantly worse offensive team statistically than the
Redskins even though Kansas City has scored more points. Washington suffered a very tough
loss last week in a game they led nearly the entire way. Jason Campbell was efficient but
there have been so few big plays from this offense. Kansas City is winless but the Chiefs have
shown much more life than some of the other bottom feeders though an incredibly tough
schedule. Last week ’s OT loss was the first ATS win for Kansas City and this will complete a
brutal stretch of four consecutive games against the NFC East. Washington has covered just
once in the last nine games as a favorite and although Washington has excellent defensive
numbers they have been unable to pull away from opponents. REDSKINS BY 2
CINCINNATI (-4½) Houston (45) 12:00 PM
The Bengals moved to 4-1 and take over the AFC South lead with their third S/U win as an
underdog on the season. Carson Palmer suffered a hand injury in last week ’s win which is
why the line is slow to come out this week. Palmer has played well but the key for this team
has been Cedric Benson and a very solid running game. Cincinnati’s defense has fairly
average numbers but the Bengals have faced one of the tougher schedules in the league. The
Texans made a late charge last week but could not punch in the score, falling to 2-3. Houston
is allowing 24 points per game and 362 yards per game with exceptionally bad numbers
against the run. Houston’s two wins have come against teams that are a combined 1-9 but the
offense has proven capable. The Bengals are not accustomed to the favorite role but
Cincinnati is a fluke touchdown away from being 5-0. BENGALS BY 7
PITTSBURGH (-14) Cleveland (38) 12:00 PM
To say that Cleveland won ugly last week would be an extreme understatement but the
Browns need every win they can get. Derek Anderson won a game as QB in the NFL despite
completing two of 17 passes for 22 yards. While Anderson has posted terrible numbers, the
team has played better with him as the starter. The Browns are the worst rush defense in the
NFL however which makes Pittsburgh a tough match-up. The Super Bowl champions are 1-4
ATS on the year and the offense has arguably been better than the defense so far this
season. Pittsburgh is still very tough to run against which pins this game on Anderson which
could be problematic. The Steelers are doing enough to win but they have been an
underwhelming performer so far. The Browns have faced the toughest schedule in the league
and Pittsburgh is 5-13 as double-digit favorites since ’97. STEELERS BY 11
MINNESOTA (-3) Baltimore (43½) 12:00 PM
While the Vikings have not played a difficult schedule Minnesota has been thoroughly
impressive, particularly on defense of late. The Vikings are giving up some yardage but
Minnesota leads the league in sacks and is creating momentum changing plays every week.
The offense really has not been severely tested and RB Adrian Peterson is getting scores and
QB Brett Favre has been very efficient. Baltimore has been the more productive offensive
team but the Ravens have three wins against teams that are a combined 3-11. The Ravens
have failed against quality competition the last two weeks and many were a little quick to
anoint the Ravens as the team to beat in the AFC. Baltimore has been an average defensive
team and lost last week despite scoring a defensive touchdown. Minnesota may be untested
but the edge in almost every area should belong to the Vikings. VIKINGS BY 10
JACKSONVILLE (-10) St. Louis (42) 12:00 PM
The Rams have played a tough schedule but the offense has been embarrassingly bad. St.
Louis actually out-gained Minnesota last week but squandered so many opportunities and
could not overcome the turnovers. This is a team that does not play well from behind as the
passing attack has struggled and neither QB has had success. Jacksonville was shutout in
Seattle in one of the more shocking results last week. The Jags defense had been vulnerable
but the offense was posting solid production. Fumbles were costly and the long travel clearly
had an impact. Even with the stinker last week the Jaguars rate as one the better offensive
teams in the league although this is a tough team to trust laying double-digits. St. Louis has
only played within 19 points once this season. JAGUARS BY 17
NEW ORLEANS (-3) NY Giants (47½) 12:00 PM
An undefeated showdown in the NFC will be the game of the week as the rested Saints host a
Giants team that has been incredibly dominant. New York is allowing just 210 yards per game
and while averaging 417 yards per game on offense. New York has faced a weak schedule
however so keep in mind the statistics have been inflated the last three weeks against teams
that have combined to go 1-14. Against Washington and Dallas, two average teams at best,
the Giants won in close games. The Saints are one of the top offenses in the league and the
top scoring team in the league. Surprisingly the running game has been among the best in the
NFL and the defense has also delivered a big upgrade. The Saints have done it against a
better schedule as well and the extra week has to be an advantage. SAINTS BY 10
Carolina (-3) TAMPA BAY (39½) 12:00 PM
The Panthers pulled out a comeback win last week to prevent a match-up of winless teams.
The Bucs continue to struggle, allowing on average 95 more yards than they gain while giving
up double the amount of points scored. The QB change has provided a little hope but no
results as Johnson was mistake prone last week. Carolina has been a very easy team to rush
against so the Bucs could actually find some output opportunities and the Panthers offense
has been just as ineffective although through a slightly tougher schedule. Carolina has not
covered in a game all season which makes it tough to justify road favoritism. BUCS BY 1
GREEN BAY (-11) Detroit (48) 12:00 PM
Detroit held its own with Pittsburgh last week but the result was familiar. Detroit has played
one of the toughest schedules in the league and has been much more encouraging than many
of the other teams with bad records. Green Bay has been a very average team on both sides
of the ball and Detroit has actually been a more productive offensive team. The Green Bay
defense has allowed 20 sacks on the year while getting just five on defense so line play has
been a serious issue that will make it tough for the Packers to compete. Green Bay enters this
game off a bye week but the Packers have struggled as favorites at home although they have
had rec ent success in this series. It is too soon to say if the key offensive players for the Lions
will be back but last week the offense was still capable. PACKERS BY 4
Philadelphia (-14) OAKLAND (40½) 3:05 PM
Oakland has easily been the worst offensive team in the league with 191 yards per game on
average and less than ten points per game scored. The Raiders showed promise on defense
early in the season but the last two weeks have been ugly. The Eagles cruised to victory in
QB McNabb’s return and this is a team that has some of the best defensive yardage numbers
in the league despite allowing over 21 points per game. Oakland has been disastrous at home
but the Eagles have wins over three teams that are 1-13 and were blown out against the only
quality opponent. Backing Oakland is a huge risk but the two ugly losses the last two weeks
both came on the road. Philadelphia has only played one road game all season long and they
caught major turnover breaks in that game to win. Double-digit road favorites in the NFL are
rare and it too soon to give the Eagles that status. EAGLES BY 10
SEATTLE (-3) Arizona (47½) 3:05 PM
A lot of frustration was released by Seattle last week as everything that could have gone right
did in a 41-0 win. The Seahawks get another big home game this week and the 49ers have
come back to the pack in the NFC West after a 3-0 start. Injuries have been a serious issue
for the Seahawks but this is still a team covering at a dominant rate as home favorites.
Arizona held on to win last week but the defense has serious liabilities against the pas s. The
Cardinals are allowing 374 yards per game despite playing three of the first four at home.
Arizona continues to be overvalued based on the Super Bowl run last season but this team
remains what they were a year ago, an exciting but inconsistent offense and a defense with a
lot of holes. This is cheap price on a Seattle team that has been exceptional at home in recent
seasons and needs to get a big division win. SEAHAWKS BY 9
NY JETS (NL) Buffalo 3:15 PM
The Jets face a short week after a big Monday night games and the Jets have been incredibly
impressive so far this year with great statistics on both sides of the ball. The Bills run the ball
well but are scoring just 15 points per game and after last week ’s home loss to the Browns a
season that started with promise has faded fast. Buffalo has had success in this series and
although New York has been solid in the underdog role this will be a new situation. The three
teams that New York beat have also left some questions about the quality of the wins as
Houston, Tennessee, and New England have not lived up to expectations. JETS BY 4
NEW ENGLAND (-9½) Tennessee (43½) 3:15 PM
After frustrating narrow losses to open the season, it seemed that the Titans would get things
turned around. The last two weeks have been lopsided losses and this is simply not a very
good team even as good at the 13-3 team was last year. The one strong point has been
rushing the ball and stopping the run but that will not play favorably against New England. The
Titans have been a dangerous road underdog but the Patriots have typically responded well to
losses. Denver and New York must be recognized as quality opponents and New England
had chances to win both games and wins over Baltimore and Atlanta are looking even more
impressive at this point in the year. PATRIOTS BY 14
ATLANTA (-3½) Chicago (45½) 7:20 PM
Following the bye week the Falcons delivered an impressive blowout win against a good
defensive team while facing cross country travel. The Bears will seek to emulate that formula
after an early season bye and these teams rate very evenly both at 3-1. Statistically Atlanta
has been a bit better on offense while Chicago has been the stronger defensiveteam. Atlanta
has given up a lot of yards this season but not a lot of points and the Falcons should have a
big edge on the ground in this match-up. Atlanta is coming off huge win but the Bears will be
ready for this match-up. Chicago’s wins have been impressive, beating Pittsburgh and winning
at Seattle and the Bears easily could have won at Green Bay to open the year. Atlanta is yet
to beat a legitimate high quality team and the Falcons may be overrated coming of the 45-
point explosion in last week’s big win off the bye week. BEARS BY 3
MONDAY, OCTOBER 19, 2009
Denver (-4) SAN DIEGO (44) 7:35 PM
No one wants to believe that Denver is really this good but the Broncos looked like the far
superior team against New England, winning the yardage and overcoming early turnovers and
costly penalties. San Diego actually has some of the worst defensive numbers in the league
and shockingly has the worst rushing offense in the NFL. The Chargers have not played that
tough of a schedule which has been the knock on Denver but the Broncos have impressive
numbers on both sides of the ball and wins the last two weeks have legitimized the record.
The Chargers have owned this series but Denver has allowed just ten points in two road
games and the Broncos are still greatly undervalued based on what has actually happened on
the field this season and not any preseason predictions. BRONCOS BY 3
Kelso Sturgeon Newsletter
OKLAHOMA STATE by 10 over Missouri--It is difficult to understand all the Oklahoma State (4-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) that have come out of the woodwork to bash the Cowboys, taking an I-told-you-so attitude toward a team that at the beginning of the season appeared to have the talent to win a national championship. Oklahoma State showed its strength last week in winning 36-31 at Texas A&M without Dez Bryant (suspended), the best wide-receiver in the country, and without running back Kendall Hunter (injured). Senior running back Keith Toston stepped in and rushed for 130 yards on 26 carries--an example of just how much depth this team has. I had the opportunity to cash a ticket against Missouri this past Thursday night, taking Nebraska and laying the 3 1/2 and winning 27-12. Frankly Missouri (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) looked like the most under-rated team in the country. I believe OSU will prove that point in this one.
LOUISIANA TECH by 21 over New Mexico State--I will most certainly give New Mexico State (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) credit for its accomplishments this season but I am not on the bandwagon, despite its 20-17 win over a much better Utah State team last week. In that game, Utah State was 'homered' from the get go, out-yarding New Mexico State 429 to 230 but falling victim to 12 penalties--many of them at key times and very questionable--for 128 yards. It was hard to overcome and New Mexico State slipped in the backdoor. With that said, New Mexico State simply doesn't have the offense to keep it close in this game in Rustin, where Louisiana Tech (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) went 5-1 last season and is 2-0 this time around. Meantime, New Mexico State is 1-1 on the road this season, while going 5-31 the previous five years. Tech is much better that it looked in that 37-14 loss to an explosive Nevada team last week and this drop in class points to a big win.
Minnesota by 3 over PENN STATE--There is no average going against Penn State in Happy Valley but there is no 5-1 team in the country that is anymore suspect than are the Nittany Lions. In fact, Coach Joe Paterno (yes, I am a big fan) should be ashamed of himself for playing a cupcake non-conference schedule made up of Akron, Syracuse, Temple and Eastern Illinois. It is quite interesting that when Penn State played a legitimate football team, it lost at Iowa, 21-10. The Nittany Lions (2-4 ATS) come into this game off a 42-3 win over 1-AA Eastern Illinois and are facing a Minnesota (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) team with a slew of superior skill players that key an offense that can put the points on the board. Minnesota showed its true colors in two games this season--a 20-13 win over a very tough Air Force team and in a tough 31-28 loss to a very good Wisconsin team. The ambush of the day.
TEMPLE by 9 over Army--Kudos to Army's first-year coach Rich Ellerson--formerly of Cal-Poly--who has Army off to a 3-3 (2-4 ATS) start and fresh off a major upset win over Vanderbilt, 16-13, in overtime. However, that win over Vanderbilt was an early Christmas gift to the Cadets, as the Commodores had three touchdowns called back on penalties and failed to get a fourth when the running back dropped the ball inches short of the goal line as he was going in for the winning TD. Now it is back to reality and a Temple (3-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) that is playing outstanding football right now and showing the guts and grit it takes to win the close ones. These teams have played to common opponents--Ball State (0-6) and Eastern Michigan (0-5)--and have beaten them both. Temple beat Ball State last week, 24-19, and won at Eastern Michigan, 37-13 earlier. Army won at Eastern Michigan, 27-14, and at home against Ball State, 24-17. In the end it boils down to skill players and physical strength and Temple grades out on top in both.
Houston by 55 over TULANE--The only question I have in my mind is how did Houston (4-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) ever lose to Texas-El Paso--by a 58-41 score, no less? The Cougars are one of the best football teams in the country and last week won at Mississippi State, 31-24. They previously had knocked off nationally-ranked Oklahoma State, 45-35, in Stillwater, and edged Texas Tech, 29-28, in Houston. Not only is Houston an outstanding team, it has a potentially great passing quarterback in junior Case Keenum who last week completed 39-of-52 passes for 434 yards and two touchdowns in that win in Starkville. This appears to be the perfect storm mismatch. Tulane (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) does not have a defense that can slow down Houston and it certainly is not going to out-gun Keenum and company. For the record Tulane gives up 408.5 yards per game.
Navy by 21 over SMU--Coach June Jones certainly is turning around the SMU program but the team is not quite as good as its 3-2 (3-1 ATS) record and is certainly up against it against one of the best Navy (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS) teams of the decade. One need look no further than last week's stunning SMU upset of East Carolina, 28-21. A win--most certainly--but not quite as good as it looked. Three of the SMU touchdowns told the story. One came on a blocked field goal returned 63 yards for a touchdown. Another came on a 53-yard interception returned for a touchdown. One came on a 96-yard pass play. None of these things are likely to happen against a Navy team that crushed Rice, 63-14, last week and did that while trying to hold down the score. The Midshipmen have lost only at Ohio State (5-1), 31-27, and at Pittsburgh (5-1), 27-14. This is a good Navy team and should dominate in this spot.
CONNECTICUT by 17 over Louisville--Connecticut (3-2 SU, 5-0 ATS) remains one of the most under-rated football teams in the country and comes into this game ready to fire its best shot--and that should be good enough to get the money against a struggle Louisville (2-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) team. The host Huskies took their two losses by a total of 5 points, losing at home to North Carolina, 12-10, on a fluke safety and this past week at nationally-ranked Pittsburgh, 24-21, In other words, Connecticut could easily be undefeated. This is a team that plays great defense, giving up just 232.3 yards per game, and should be able to drop the hammer on Louisville. The Cardinals come into this game off a 25-23 home win over a crippled Southern Miss team, on the strength of a 32-yard field goal with 30 seconds left to play.
Best Of The Rest
BOSTON COLLEGE by 4 over N.C. State
Ohio State by 35 over PURDUE
BALL STATE by 3 over Bowling Green
MICHIGAN STATE by 24 over Northwestern
WISCONSIN by 7 over Iowa
Virginia by 13 over MARYLAND
Wake Forest by 3 over CLEMSON
IOWA STATE by 7 over Baylor
OLE MISS by 29 over UAB
Georgia by 14 over VANDERBILT
AUBURN by 7 over Kentucky
Central Michigan by 17 over WESTERN MICHIGAN
AIR FORCE by 21 over Wyoming
OHIO by 14 over Miami-OH
Nevada by 13 over UTAH STATE
WEST VIRGINIA by 14 over Marshall
UCLA by 6 over California
NEBRASKA by 7 over Texas Tech
KANSAS STATE by 3 over Texas A&M
EAST CAROLINA by 35 over Rice
BUFFALO by 7 over Akron
TCU by 17 over Colorado State
IDAHO by 10 over Hawaii
BYU by 28 over SAN DIEGO STATE
ARIZONA by 6 over Stanford
Illinois by 4 over INDIANA
COLORADO by 3 over Kansas
Washington by 4 over ARIZONA STATE
FRESNO STATE by 40 over San Jose State
UL-Lafayette by 24 over WESTERN KENTUCKY
Troy by 27 over FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Florida Atlantic by 7 over NORTH TEXAS
Mississippi State by 14 over MIDDLE TENNESSEE
LOGICAL APPROACH
NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: N Y Giants + 3 over NEW ORLEANS - This is the game of the week between a pair of unbeaten teams, one of which, New Orleans is rested following their Bye. The Saints have been solid on defense this season which makes them the balance they've lacked in recent seasons. The Giants have had that balance for several seasons. The Giants also have a remarkable road record, winning 19 of 24 road games straight up since 2007 including winning 3 straight wins on the road earlier this season. 5 of the wins have been as Underdogs - all in this pointspread range - including a win at Dallas in Week 2. QB Manning will be fresh after sitting out the second half of Sunday's rout of Oakland. New Orleans has shown great offensive balance with a strong running game to complement the passing of QB Brees. The Giants lead the league allowing just 211 yards per game and are second in points allowed. The Saints are clearly a legitimate threat to win it all, but so are the Giants who have been playing methodical football and play with great confidence on the road against elite teams. New York Giants win 23-17.
Other Featured NFL Selections :
Kansas City + 6 ½ over WASHINGTON - The Chiefs continue to play hard but come up short as they did in their OT home loss to Dallas. They now face a fourth straight NFC East team and it''s the weakest of the quartet. Washington faced yet another winless team last week and was unable to protect a 17-2 lead, losing at Carolina 20-17. In fact, the 'Skins are yet to face a team that has won a game when they played. Washington's 2 wins were by 3 over Tampa Bay and by 2 over St Louis while losing to Detroit. The Chiefs have played better than both the Buccs and Rams. It's hard to justify the Redskins as such large favorites considering their struggles against such a weak schedule. Washington does have the edge in the stats but the Chiefs have greater upside potential having a first year head coach and QB suggestive of improved play on a weekly basis, especially when playing mid to low level foes. Washington wins but by just 16-13.
CINCINNATI - 4 ½ over Houston - Cincinnati continues to make believers out of skeptics as their fine defensive play from the second half of last season has carried over to this season and has the Bengals atop the AFC North at 4-1. Houston remains one of this season's biggest disappointments as both their offense and defense have regressed from last season. The Bengals are playing with confidence. The Texans are playing with doubt. Although Cincy could be flat following 3 straight close wins over Division foes their strong team chemistry should keep them focused. Statistically the Bengals have most of the edges, especially in running the football (127 ypg vs 75) and in stopping the run (99 vs 141). Houston has a passing edge on offense that is offset by Cincy's edge in pass defense. Cincy has also played the tougher schedule as their 4 wins are against teams that are 9-6 vs the rest of the league while Houston's 2 wins have come against teams that are just 1-7 against the rest of the league. Cincinnati wins 27-17.
SEATTLE - 3 over Arizona - The return of QB Hasselbeck was evident last week as Seattle routed Jacksonville 41-0, their second home shutout this season. Arizona blew a 21-0 lead last week against Houston but rallied to win 28-21 on an INT return in the fourth quarter and a huge goal line stand in the game's waning moments. Arizona relies too much on the passing game and has not been able to establish much of a ground game. Arizona does lead the league in rush defense (71 ypg) but that may be due to their # 32 ranking in pass defense (303 ypg). Aside from a poor effort at San Francisco, Seattle has held their other 4 foes to 85 rushing yards or less. Seattle has a good history against the Cardinals and has historically been one of the best home teams in the league, aside from last season in which the 'Hawks were plagued by a well above average number of injuries. And recall that Arizona was just a 9-7 team in 2008 before getting hot in the Playoffs. And 6 of their 9 wins were against Division foes, a Division Seattle had dominated by winning 4 straight titles prior to last season. A healthy Seattle is still best in the West. Seattle wins 27-20.
Best of the Rest (Recommendations)
MINNESOTA - 2 ½ over Baltimore St Louis + 10 over JACKSONVILLE
Philadelphia - 14 over OAKLAND Chicago + 3 over ATLANTA
The Rest (Opinions)
PITTSBURGH - 14 over Cleveland TAMPA BAY + 3 ½ over Carolina
GREEN BAY - 13 ½ over Detroit Buffalo + 9 over N Y JETS
NEW ENGLAND - 9 over Tennessee SAN DIEGO - 4 over Denver (Monday)
Bye Weeks - Dallas, Indianapolis, Miami, San Francisco
Best of the NFL Totals
Kansas City/Washington UNDER 37 Baltimore/Minnesota UNDER 44
St Louis/Jacksonville UNDER 42 N Y Giants/New Orleans UNDER 47 ½
Carolina/Tampa Bay UNDER 40 Chicago/Atlanta UNDER 46
Money Line Recommendations
College: Wake Forest GEORGIA TECH Stanford Washington
Pro: CINCINNATI N Y Giants SEATTLE Chicago
Kelso's Newsletter
NFL BEST BETS
BENGALS by 14 over Texans--If there were any doubters that Cincinnati was back, the Bengals put that thought to rest when as an 8-point underdog went into Baltimore and upset the Ravens, 17-14, to take over first place in the AFC North. With quarterback Carson Palmer back and healthy, and with the defense playing lights out, Cincinnati has emerged as one of the 10 best teams in the NFL. There is no reason to think they are going to take anything for granted as they head into this home game with the Texans--and I expect them to again fire their best shot. Cincinnati is a team that is playing as if it wants it and, for sure, this edition is nothing like the one that went 4-11-1 last year.
STEELERS by 17 over Browns--Pittsburgh certainly does not look like a world-beater this time around but it does not take a genius to see the Steelers have every single edge--most of all the ability to score. Cleveland got its first win last week at Buffalo, 6-3, continuing a trend of being unable to put points on the board when away from the Dog Pound. In three road games this season, Cleveland lost 27-6 and at Denver, 34-3 at Baltimore before eking out the win at Buffalo last week. Pittsburgh's defense should put absolutely dominate and completely shutdown a Cleveland offense that is all but non-existent.
REDSKINS by 7 over Chiefs--I have not yet figured out whether Kansas City, which is 0-5 and which lost at home in overtime to Dallas, 26-20, last week can really compete. Dallas played a terrible game in KC and still managed to win, despite the fact the Chiefs fired their best shot. Washington lost at Carolina last week, 20-17, and, while being a bad football team, seems to have enough edges to get the job done in this one, regardless of how well KC might jump up and play.
Panthers by 10 over BUCCANEERS--The winless 0-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers are by no means as bad as are the Oakland Raiders but they are headed in that direction. The Bucs were basically non-competitive in their 33-14 loss at Philadelphia last week and there is no reason to think they will wake up and get it done against a Carolina team that got off the snide last week with a 20-17 win over Washington. Both these teams are offensively challenged, with Tampa Bay averaging 13.5 points and 279.5 yards per game and with Carolina putting up figures of 12.3 and 293.3. The difference is that Carolina has the horses to get it done, regardless of how poorly it has performed this season, and Tampa Bay does not.
JETS by 13 over Bills--The New York Jets take a dramatic drop in class in this game against the punchless Buffalo Bills and have the manpower to take charge from the opening kickoff and never look back. It is almost laughable that Buffalo head coach Dick Jauron fired his offensive coordinator earlier this season and, after the team averaging 28.5 points in its first two games, in the last three has scored 7, 10 and 3. Obviously that won't get it done and few teams are going to beat New York on the strength of its defense. New York may a bit over-rated but they should be able to grind out a solid win in this one.
Best Of The Rest
Ravens by 3 over VIKINGS
JAGUARS by 13 over Rams
PACKERS by 17 over Lions
Eagles by 45 over RAIDERS
Cardinals by 10 over SEAHAWKS
PATRIOTS by 4 over Titans