Football Newsletters Oct. 21 -26

NEBRASKA (NL) Iowa State 12:30 PM
The scoreboard was ugly for Nebraska as they were smoked as a solid home favorite last
week. Despite losing 31-10, Nebraska out-gained Texas Tech and held the high-powered Red
Raiders offense to only 259 yards. A fumble return for a touchdown was a key play early in the
game but the Nebraska offense was ineffective much of the game and QB Zac Lee was
eventually pulled. Iow a State has covered in four of the last five games and the Cyclones have
been very competitive in their losses as well. Iowa State has actually been a more productive
offensive team for the season although Nebraska has faced a more difficult schedule. Iowa
State has been an excellent ATS team in the role as a large underdog and assuming QB
Austen Arnaud is able to go for the Cyclones this could be a favorable match-up going against
a reeling Cornhusker offense. Nebraska has out-gained every opponent this season but
against quality Big XII offenses the defense can’t carry the team. NEBRASKA BY 7

Ball State (-3½) EASTERN MICHIGAN 12:00 PM
The Cardinals will play as a 0-7 road favorite in this match-up of winless teams. Eastern
Michigan has actually played the tougher schedule and has been a slightly stronger defensive
team so the favoritism may not be justified. That said, Ball State has been a quality ATS road
team in recent years while Eastern is 3-13 ATS in the last 16 home games. Since QB Schmitt
went down to injury the Eagle offense has taken a big hit but Ball State may also be dealing
with the loss of a QB this week. Back-up QB Tanner Justice completed just 6 of 21 passes in
relief last week so the offense could struggle. Eastern Michigan is a tough team to back as
they have put together very few positive efforts in recent years but Ball State may be in a bad
situation even though the Cardinals hav e been the more competitive team . EASTERN BY 3

Northern Illinois (-11½) MIAMI, OH 12:00 PM
Miami is scoring just ten points a game, now sitting at 0-7 on the year. The defense
meanwhile has allowed over 35 points per game and they will face Northern Illinois coming off
a very tough loss. The Huskies are just 1-9 ATS in the past ten road contests so this could be
an opportunity for the Redhawks. NIU has won the last four meetings between these teams
but Miami has covered in close games the past two years. By a wide margin Miami has had to
play the toughest schedule of any MAC team and this will be the first home game for the
Redhawks that is not against a BCS conference school. Northern Illinois has rebounded nicely
from past losses however and though the trends for NIU are not strong, the scoring numbers
present a huge edge. Much of Miami’s production has come late in games after a big deficit
has been established and the Huskies should be in position to continue the misery for a once
proud Miami program that is currently in rough shape. NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY 17

Oklahoma State (-10) BAYLOR 11:30 AM
While Oklahoma State has now won four in a row and continues to climb in the national
rankings this has not been a terribly impressive team. The Cowboys have played one of the
easiest schedules of any major conference team and the acclaimed offense is only outgaining
foes by about 50 yards per game. Key players have been absent but this is also a
team that has only had to play one road game so far. Injuries have derailed a once promising
season for Baylor and the Bears have scored just 17 points the last two weeks. Oklahoma
State has covered in eight of the last ten meetings and the Bears have not been a successful
home underdog. The Cowboys are due to get caught at some point this season but this
match-up should be favorable. OKLAHOMA STATE BY 14

OHIO (-9½) Kent State 1:00 PM
The Bobcats can become bowl eligible with one more win as Ohio has quietly won five of the
last six games. Ohio is allowing more yards than they gain and the team has been out-gained
three of the last four weeks despite covers in all four games. At 3-0 in conference play the
Bobcats are in control of the East division currently but there is little margin for error. Kent is
quietly on a four-game ATS winning streak but through a softer schedule the Flashes are
allowing significantly more yards per game. Both of Kent’s FBS wins came against teams that
are currently winless so there are some suspect numbers on the resume. This is the steepest
line in this series since ’02 but Ohio has taken care of business in conference play and the
Bobcats are 12-6 ATS in the past 18 home games. OHIO BY 14

WESTERN MICHIGAN (-4½) Buffalo 1:00 PM
The Broncos are normally a MAC contender but two early season conference losses leave
Western Michigan in a tough spot in the standings. Normally led by defense, Western
Michigan is allowing over 400 yards per game and the offense has not been consistent. Last
year’s MAC champion has had a much tougher go this season but Buffalo has wins the last
two weeks and on average the Bulls have out-gained foes by over 50 yards per game. Buffalo
lost in overtime against Western Michigan last season as the Broncos completed a significant
comeback so there should some motivation in this match-up for the Bulls. Western also enters
this game off a state rivalry loss last week in a critical conference home game. Western
Michigan has not lived up to expectations so far this season and they have also been a poor
ATS home team in recent years. BUFFALO BY 3

Louisiana Tech (-1½) UTAH STATE 2:00 PM
Utah State may be 1-5 but this will be a dangerous team in WAC play. The Aggies have had
to play four of six games on the road and back at home they nearly beat a Nevada team
projected by many to be one of the better teams in the conference. A loss to New Mexico
State looks bad but Utah State had a nearly 200 yard advantage in that game. Louisiana Tech
won by just seven at home in this series last season and the Bulldogs are 1-10 ATS in the last
eleven road games while Utah State has covered in six in a row as home underdogs. Utah
State has had to endure a muc h tougher schedule in the first half of the season and Louisiana
Tech has been out-gained by over 200 yards in all three road games this season. Utah State
QB Diondre Borel has nine touchdown passes and only one interception on the season
despite facing several quality defenses so this is an Aggies team that should have a good
chance to win playing in a favorable home venue. UTAH STATE BY 6

NOTRE DAME (-9) Boston College 2:30 PM
There will be talk of a letdown possibility for Notre Dame but the Irish were not really expected
to compete by most last week and they should be encouraged by the late rally. Notre Dame
has had limited recent success in this series or as a home favorite but Boston College has
endured disastrous results on the road this season. Boston College has actually won six in a
row S/U against the Irish but the Eagles may be in more of a letdown spot following a big win
over NC State and the former BC coach. Notre Dame has been by far the superior offensive
team and although the defensive numbers are not strong, the schedule has been very difficult.
The Irish will have a big edge at QB in this match-up as the Eagles have had atrocious play
under center and the running game is not likely to explode for as great of success this week
as RB Montel Harris had five touchdowns last week. NOTRE DAME BY 14

ALABAMA (-16) Tennessee 2:30 PM
Tennessee has had two weeks to prepare for this game and Alabama could be a bit
overvalued after eclipsing Florida in the polls last week. The Tide have been exceptionally
impressive this season but this is still a team that is 10-21 ATS as a home favorite since ’04
and the line will be inflated this week. These teams have played similar caliber schedules and
the Volunteers played well in their biggest game against Florida this season so a strong effort
should be in order here. In its last game, against Georgia, Tennessee also had its best
offensive effort since the opening week. Although Alabama’s defense has been better
Tennessee does feature a stingy unit as well and the offensive production between these two
teams has actually been quite similar. Against quality defenses the last two weeks Alabama
has been forced to settle for a lot of field goals, scoring just 42 points in two games.
Tennessee could keep Alabama’s scoring numbers down which makes this inflated spread
even more attractive for the underdog Volunteers. ALABAMA BY 10

Oregon (-7½) WASHINGTON 2:30 PM
Two weeks ago Washington stole a win from Arizona late in the game but last week a tie
game was finished the wrong way in the closing seconds against the Huskies. Washington
has endured a season of dramatic games through one of the toughest schedules in the nation.
Oregon has reeled off four-straight impressive wins to move to 5-1 and the Ducks will be a
serious national player if they can keep winning. Oregon has won and covered each of the last
four meetings in this series and the Ducks are allowing 144 fewer yards per game on the year.
Washington has excelled in the home underdog role but slowing down an Oregon offense that
has been on a roll will be a very difficult challenge. With two weeks to get ready for this matchup
Oregon should deliver another impressive showing. Washington has been a fun team to
watch but the defense could really have a lot of problems in this match-up as Oregon has
been posting huge numbers on the ground. OREGON BY 13

TEXAS TECH (-21) Texas A&M 6:00 PM
After two early season losses Texas Tech has cruised to wins each of the last three weeks.
The offense has not been quite as productive as expected but the defense has surprisingly
strong. After a promising 3-0 start Texas A&M has dropped three straight and last week’s loss
came in blowout fashion. Tech has completely dominated this series in recent years and the
Red Raiders have not been a team to go-against at home with outstanding spread numbers.
Texas Tech has played a higher quality schedule and the only road game that A&M has
played was last week’s disastrous loss. There won’t be any value with the Red Raiders but the
A&M sec ondary is banged up and Texas Tech continues to prove it is a program that intends
to stay towards the top even with significant roster turnover. TEXAS TECH BY 28

Penn State (-4½) MICHIGAN 2:30 PM
The Nittany Lions dominated in the snow last week and on the year Penn State has outgained
every opponent. They face Michigan squad that has been just as productive on
offense, posting 37 points and 426 yards per game. The Penn State defense is allowing just
over eight points per game but the team has faced a rather weak schedule. Michigan has
actually been out-gained in four of seven games as the defense is allowing 363 yards per
game. Historically Michigan has had a lot of success in this series and the Wolverines have
been very adept home underdogs. Last seas on Penn State won 46-17 in this series but a
much closer affair should be expected this season. Turnovers have been a problem for
Michigan but at home the Wolverines should play a close game. Both Michigan losses came
in very competitive games and the Wolv erines can score quickly to keep pace and have also
shown the ability to come back if falling behind early. PENN STATE BY 3

Oklahoma (-6½) KANSAS 12:00 PM
Kansas fell behind early and rallied to take the lead last week at Colorado but ultimately fell
short for the first loss of the season. Amazingly Oklahoma has already lost three times this
season but BYU, Miami, and Texas figure to be highly ranked teams all season. Injuries have
taken a toll for the Sooners but the defense is capable of carrying the team. Even through a
very tough schedule Oklahoma is allowing less than ten points per game and nearly 85 fewer
yards per game than Kansas gives up. Kansas is unlikely to be able to run the ball against the
Sooners and when Colorado stopped the run last week the Jayhawks struggled. Kansas has
had a productive offensive team but the schedule has been incredibly weak. Oklahoma
bounced back for a dominant win after each of the last two losses even with back-up QB
Landry Jones. The Sooners have lost three games but by a combined total of five points so
this is a still a team to be reckoned with in the Big XII but Kansas could be capable of a
bounce back effort on a tough home field. . OKLAHOMA BY 4

Texas (-13½) MISSOURI 12:00 PM
Missouri QB Blaine Gabbert was not a 100 percent last week and it showed with several
turnovers as Missouri lost despite a yardage advantage. Texas held on for a big win last week
against Oklahoma but it was hardly an impressive showing and the Longhorns could be
vulnerable in upcoming conference games. Texas has only covered once this season and this
will continue to be an overvalued team as long as they stay undefeated. Texas has been a
very difficult team to run against but Missouri has had success in games where they have
been forced exclusively through the air as there is great size and talent in the receiving corps.
Texas won big in last year’s meeting but so far this year Gabbert has actually out-played Colt
McCoy in several statistical categories. This could be a letdown game for the Longhorns and
Missouri needs to bounce back after tough losses in two games they could have won. Texas
is undefeated and highly ranked but this has not looked like a national title contender yet this
season and playing in Columbia as a solid road favorite is a tough order. TEXAS BY 10

NAVY (-2½) Wake Forest 2:30 PM
These teams played twice last season with Navy winning in the regular season and Wake
Forest winning the bowl game match-up. Wake Forest enters this game off an ugly road
performance and the Deacons have lost both road games this season. Navy is now a winner
of four consecutive games but the competition has been quite weak and two wins required
overtime. Navy should enjoy a significant rushing edge in this match-up and through
somewhat comparable quality schedules the Navy defense has been quite a bit stronger.
Wake Forest has scored just 13 points per game on the road and this should be a much
bigger game for Navy. In nearly every measure Navy looks like the superior team and this is a
short price on what should be the better team. Wake Forest is certainly better than they
looked last week but this is not any easier of a situation. NAVY BY 7

COLORADO STATE (-9½) San Diego State 3:00 PM
After a very promising start to the season Colorado State has now dropped four consecutive
games and the Rams have lost ATS in four straight meetings in this series. Despite the losing
streak Colorado State has covered in each of the last eight lined home games and the Rams
have been the much better rushing team. Colorado State has also faced a significantly more
challenging schedule. Although San Diego State is in a rebuilding mode the Aztecs have
posted a few very respectable efforts in recent weeks. The last two games have come at
home however and this is not a program that has had a lot of recent road success. Although
Colorado State has allowed more yards, these teams are giving up a similar amount of points
per game. Colorado State has a solid home field edge and the Rams have played against
better competition. COLORADO STATE BY 14

UTAH (-10) Air Force 3:00 PM
The Utes are not getting a lot of attention this season but this is a team with only one loss in
the past two seasons. The loss came on the road in a close game with Oregon and since Utah
has rebounded with three consecutive wins including the last two on the road. Utah is 10-5
ATS in the past 15 home games but Air Force has covered in nine of the last twelve meetings.
The Air Force defense is allowing just eleven points per game but the caliber of schedule has
not been remotely close. This series has been very tight the last four years and although Utah
should have a few advantages Air Force is likely to hang around and get on the scoreboard.
Amazingly the underdog is 10-0-1 the last eleven meetings in this series as the statistics can
often be thrown out between these teams. UTAH BY 7

NEVADA (-13) Idaho 3:05 PM
One of the best stories of the season has been Idaho as the Vandals are 6-1 and bowl
eligible. Idaho is 7-0 ATS on the season yet will play as nearly two touchdown underdogs this
week. After a slow start Nevada has put together three straight wins and the Wolf Pack remain
a dominant team at home with a 17-6-1 record in the last 24 games in Reno. Idaho has
covered in nine of the last ten as underdogs however. Nevada is the top rushing team in the
nation and the relentless attack may wipe out the great start to the season for Nevada. After
starting 0-3 Nevada was counted out by most but this is a team that is battle tested and could
play a vital role in the WAC standings. NEVADA BY 11

ARIZONA (-9) Ucla 5:30 PM
Historically UCLA has been on an excellent run as an underdog but the Bruins are the losers
of three straight games S/U and ATS, all as slight underdogs. Through a tougher schedule
Arizona has posted nine points and 133 more yards per game on offense while only being
marginally worse defensively. The Wildcats have two losses but one came against
Washington in a game they controlled the whole way and the other was a respectable road
loss at Iowa that is looking fine at this point in the season. Arizona has controlled this series
with large yardage margins the past two years and Arizona is 8-2 ATS at home in the past ten
home games. The season has spiraled out of control for UCLA and getting things back
together against a very solid team will be difficult. In every Pac -10 game Arizona has scored
at least as many points as the most UCLA has scored all season in a game. Look for Arizona
to step forward from the middle of the pack with this win. ARIZONA BY 14

CALIFORNIA (-36) Washington State 3:30 PM
After two terrible performances Cal got back in the win column in a big way, crushing UCLA.
Washington State has had two weeks to prepare for this game but the Cougars have been
out-gained by at leas t 130 yards in every game. California has covered in eight straight home
games but Washington State has had some success in this series with covers in six of the last
eight meetings. Last season Cal won 66-3 on the road but in 2007 the Bears barely escaped
at home 20-17. Statistically there is no comparison between these teams but Washington
State has had to face one of the more difficult slates in the nation. Cal has been a streaky
team but this line has been adjusted way too high as the Bear defense is allowing over 23
points per game and will allow a few scores in this game. CALIFORNIA BY 28

Temple (-1) TOLEDO 6:00 PM
The Rockets held on for a win last week but Toledo could be down to QB #3 this week as
injuries continue to be a problem. Historically Toledo has been a very difficult team to beat at
home and the Rockets have been an incredibly productive team on offense, averaging 458
yards per game. Temple has been a bit better on defense but the Owls have played a weaker
schedule so far this season. Temple is quietly 3-0 in conference play and the Owls have been
solid ATS road performers. Temple now has won four straight games but that includes two
wins over winless teams and even with a back-up QB Toledo can rely on its running game to
move the ball. Temple faces an upgrade in competition this week and It could prove costly in
the first conference loss for the Owls. Temple is 10-5 in the last 15 road games but this is a
tough venue for an opponent to win at. TOLEDO BY 7

MISSISSIPPI (-5½) Arkansas 11:30 AM
The Razorbacks appeared on the verge of a huge upset last week but fell just short. It will be
difficult for the same focus to come this week following such a stretch of big games. Arkansas
has proven worthy against solid competition this season but the defense is allowing nearly
400 yards per game. Mississippi has allowed just 13 points per game but the Rebels have
faced a dramatically easier schedule than Arkansas. Last season Mississippi won at Arkansas
23-21 in a game that was very even statistically. Arkansas has covered in eleven of the last 15
meetings in this series but this may be a better situation for Ole Miss. The Rebels lack an
impressive win and have done little to justify a high preseason ranking but a letdown could be
in effect for the Razorbacks. Arkansas will likely be overvalued coming off the impressive
effort against Florida but this team could be out of gas. MISSISSIPPI BY 10

CINCINNATI (-17) Louisville 2:30 PM
The Bearcats moved to 6-0 with a big primetime win last week but appeared to lose QB Tony
Pike in the process. Some reports say that Pike actually could be back this week despite dire
early scenarios. For the season Cincinnati is scoring over 40 points per game and while
allowing just 14 per game and the Bearcats are gaining some degree of respect for the Big
East. Cincinnati is just 1-5 in the last six games as home favorites however but Louisville is a
team that seems to be doing just enough to lose. The Cardinals are 2-4 on the season and a
coaching change appears eminent. This series has been very tight the past three years but
the favorite has covered in nine of the past twelve meetings. Even if Pike is unable to play,
back-up Zach Collaros proved capable last week, making plays in the air and on the ground.
This will be the second straight week on the road for Louisville and Cincinnati looks like an
elite team showing no signs of letting up. CINCINNATI BY 24

SOUTHERN MISS (-20½) Tulane 6:00 PM
The Golden Eagles were out-gained last week but still found a way to win and cover. Back-up
QB Martevious Young showed his inexperience but for the most part avoided costly mistakes
in the win over Memphis. It has been a weak schedule but with four wins the Golden Eagles
appear to be in good position for another bowl trip. Tulane is scoring about half as many
points as Southern Miss while allowing almost 36 points per game. A one-point win over Army
is the lone FBS win for the Green Wave and the defense is allowing 192 yards per game on
the ground. Southern Miss is just 3-11 in the last 14 games as double-digit favorites and with
marginal QB play it will be tough to cover this big number. Tulane has not provided a lot of
reasons for optimism but QB Joe Kemp has been fairly efficient and Southern Miss has
actually been out-gained in four of the last five games. SOUTHERN MISS BY 13

Central Florida (-10½) RICE 2:30 PM
Rice is now 0-7 on the season including three home losses. The Owls are scoring just 16
points per game while allowing 45 points and 470 yards per game. Central Florida has not
been much better on offense but the Golden Knights are a strong defensive team. Central
Florida played respectably close with an elite Miami team last week and UCF is 4-1 ATS on
the season. The Knights lost both road games in close games however so expecting this team
to win in a blowout may be asking too much. UCF is just 1-8-1 the last ten games as road
favorites while Rice is on a 17-11 run as a home underdog. Central Florida has been an
excellent defensive team against the run but Rice is not a team that tries to run the ball often
and the passing game can be productive if turnovers are avoided. After playing Miami very
tough this could be a tough spot on the schedule and long travel is required for this game. It is
certainly risky to back Rice but this looks like too many points. UCF BY 6

KANSAS STATE (-3) Colorado 12:00 PM
Both of these struggling Big XII teams came up big wins last week to rectify postseason
hopes. Kansas State dominated Texas A&M for a 62-14 blowout, taking advantage of
interceptions and big plays on special teams. Colorado required a tense finish to hang on but
built a big lead to end an undefeated run for Kansas. Every team in the Big XII North has a
loss and Kansas State technically leads the division currently at 2-1. Colorado has played a
much tougher schedule on the year and the statistics have shown it as the Buffaloes are
allowing over 80 more yards than they gain each game. Last season Colorado won 14-13 at
home in a fairly even statistical game but Kansas State has covered in each of the last four
meetings. Colorado is just 6-14 in the last 20 road games but this is a team that has covered
in four straight games and has been playing significantly better since early in the year. K-State
has played a weak home schedule and this could be a problematic match-up as Colorado has
been very tough against the run in recent games. COLORADO BY 6

Iowa (-2) MICHIGAN STATE 6:05 PM
Iowa has not been overly impressive but the Hawkeyes play fundamental football and don’t
make many mistakes. As a result this is an undefeated team that is climbing the rankings and
the last hope for the Big Ten to make a national splash. Iowa has one of the best turnover
margins in the nation and also one of the best defenses against the pass. Opponents can rush
on Iowa and the Hawkeyes have not featured a great rushing attack of their own however
which could cause problems at some point. Michigan State did not play a great game last
week but rallied late for a win over Northwestern, making for three cons ecutive wins. The
Spartans have out-gained its opponent in all but one game this year. The home team has won
S/U in each of the last nine meetings in this series and Michigan State QB Kirk Cousins has
been the more efficient passer in this match-up. Through a fairly similar schedule Michigan
State has been the more productive team and if the Spartans avoid costly mistakes an upset
is very possible although Iowa is tough to go-against right now . IOWA BY 1

BYU (PK) Tcu 6:30 PM
Most assume this game will decide the Mountain West champion and a potential BCS buster
although Utah may have something to say about that still. TCU grades as the far better team
at this point in the season and the Horned Frogs have not lost while BYU has. Last season
TCU won 32-7 with a huge rushing advantage and though he has not been as prolific, TCU
QB Andy Dalton has been much more efficient than the more acclaimed BYU starter Max Hall.
Through a tougher schedule TCU is allowing 100 fewer yards per game and nine fewer points
per game while TCU has also featured the stronger rushing attack on offense. Surprisingly
BYU has failed to cover in each of the last six home games and the win over Oklahoma and
the loss to Florida State both look much worse at this point in the year. TCU’s wins at Virginia
and at Clemson look much better right now and the Frogs have proven the ability to control a
game away from home. This is certainly a huge game for both teams and TCU simply has
been more impressive at this point in the year. TCU BY 6

Florida (-22) MISSISSIPPI STATE 6:30 PM
The Gators have covered in eleven straight road games but this is a series the team has
struggled with covering just once in the last six meetings. Florida narrowly escaped at home
against Arkans as last week and the Gators have really accomplished little this season as they
have been held to 23 or fewer points in three of four SEC games. Mississippi State has
struggled with turnovers but statistically has been an impressive team. The Bulldogs have outgained
five of seven foes this season despite a 3-4 record and all but one loss has been a
very competitive effort against a quality opponent. Believe it or not but Mississippi State has
won S/U each of the last three meetings in this series in Starkville though the last win was in
’04. Georgia is on deck for the Gators and Mississippi State is rushing for 219 yards per game
through a schedule that has been just as tough as Florida’s. FLORIDA BY 10

HOUSTON (-17½) Smu 6:30 PM
The spread is greatly inflated as the Cougars are getting a strong backing with their 4-1 ATS
record and the ability to score a lot of points. SMU sits ahead of Houston in the C-USA
standings however and despite being out-gained in all but one game this season the
Mustangs have covered in four of the last five contests. SMU has also covered in four of the
last five meetings with Houston and this series has been decided by ten points or less five
straight years. Both teams are terrible defensively but Houston is actually allowing 55 more
yards per game. The Cougars are also on a 10-22-1 ATS run as a double-digit favorite. Much
has been made of Houston’s quality schedule with three major conference wins but SMU’s
schedule grades far tougher overall despite fewer big-name programs. This has been a tight
series and few realize how quickly SMU has improved. HOUSTON BY 10

Fresno State (-25) NEW MEXICO STATE 9:20 PM
Fresno State delivered a strong win last week led by a relentless rushing attack but the
Bulldogs do call off the dogs late which has made them vulnerable to a backdoor cover as
some ended up pushing last week as San Jose State had the final score. New Mexico State
has been out-gained in every game this season yet has managed to win three games. The
Aggies have averaged just 14 points and 250 yards per game as Fresno has nearly doubled
those figures. On defense these teams have similar overall numbers but NMS is allowing 198
yards per game on the ground and the highly rated Fresno rushing attack should enjoy a big
day on the way to another convincing win. FRESNO BY 31

LSU (-8) Auburn 6:30 PM
Back-to-back losses as favorites have calmed a promising start for Auburn but the offensive
edges in this match-up should be significant. LSU has only allowed 14 points per game but
they have allowed a lot of yards and this is a team that is likely still overrated. Auburn has
covered in three of the last four in this series and LSU is just 2-12-1 ATS in the last 15 home
games. LSU has played a little bit tougher schedule and will enter off a bye week but this has
not been a team that looks trustworthy as a favorite. Auburn’s running game should keep
them alive in this match-up and this is a team capable of bouncing back after two tough losses
in SEC play the last two weeks. LSU BY 4

Unlv (-3½) NEW MEXICO 7:00 PM
The Runnin’ Rebels were projected by most to be a serious bowl contender but this is a team
that has now lost four in a row and has only covered in one game all year. New Mexico is 0-6
with only one spread win as well but the Lobos might be in a good position this week at home
and coming off a bye week. New Mexico has covered in seven of the last ten in this series and
UNLV can hardly be relied on laying points on the road even if the Lobos have turned in
several ugly performances this season. UNLV is 6-20-2 ATS in the last 28 road games and as
bad as New Mexico has been on defense, UNLV has allowed similar yardage totals. It is
tough to come up with reasons to justify backing New Mexico but the Lobos should take
advantage of a bye week to get a great game plan in order. NEW MEXICO BY 3

USC (-20½) Oregon State 7:00 PM
The Beavers are a team that has continually given USC problems and catching the Trojans off
long travel in a hyped game at Notre Dame could be a favorable situation. The losses for
Oregon State this season both came in competitivegames against Arizona and Cincinnati and
once again this looks like an overlooked team that will finish with a solid record. The scoring
numbers on offense are nearly identical for these teams and USC is just 1-4 ATS in the past
five games as this is not a team that is blowing out opponents with huge outbursts. Oregon
State is 2-0 S/U on the road this season while USC is 3-9 ATS the last twelve years following
the Notre Dame game. Oregon State QB Sean Canfield has far better numbers than USC’s
Matt Barkley and overall Oregon State is on an 11-4 ATS run. USC BY 13

STANFORD (-7) Arizona State 9:15 PM
Both teams have four wins already this season and this will be a critical swing game in the
middle of the Pac-10. Arizona State is coming off a narrow win in the closing seconds while
Stanford is coming off back-to-back losses following a promising start to the year. Arizona
State is just 2-8-1 the last eleven games as underdogs and Stanford has covered in nine
straight home games. ASU has also played far and away the weakest schedule of any Pac -10
team and Stanford has been the much more productive offensive team. The Cardinal rush for
over 200 yards per game and the worse defensive numbers can be partly attributed to the
much tougher schedule. Arizona State QB Danny Sullivan is completing just 54 percent of his
passes with just as many picks as touchdowns and Stanford should be able to pull away in
this match-up, hungry for a win after two tough losses. STANFORD BY 17

Boise State (-24) HAWAII 11:00 PM
Hawaii has covered in the las t four meetings with Boise and the Warriors still had decent
production last week despite playing with a #3 QB. Hawaii has allowed over 400 yards per
game however, equally bad against the rush and the pass. Boise State has been a bit
lackluster in the last two games so a convincing road win might be nice to keep the Broncos in
the national conversation. QB Kellen Moore has a 16:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio and
Boise State has covered in seven of the last nine road games. Going against Boise is not a
good long-term investment strategy and even on the road the Broncos should keep the foot on
the gas for a convincing win as therewill be plenty of opportunities. BOISE BY 28

LOUISIANA (-3) Florida Atlantic 4:00 PM
Florida Atlantic is 1-4 and Louisiana is 4-2 but these teams rate very closely and the Owls
have played a far tougher schedule. FAU has covered each of the last four years in this
series . Louisiana is 2-0 in Sun Belt play but they have faced two of the weaker teams in the
league and neither win was thoroughly impressive. Louisiana has actually been out-gained in
four of the last five games despite taking three wins in that span. The Cajuns suffered several
injuries in last week ’s game and FAU could be a solid play as a dog. FAU BY 3

ARKANSAS STATE (-10½) Florida International 6:00 PM
These teams each have just one win despite elevated expectations for the year. Last year
Florida International won 22-21 with a late score and Arkansas State is 2-10 ATS in the past
twelve lined games. Through similar schedules Arkansas State has posted far better
defensive numbers but International has been a game underdog and a lot of the yardage
deficit came against major conference foes including an underdog cover against Alabama.
FIU has scored 30 plus four straight weeks and this will be a tough team to cover up by
double-digits in what will be a critical game for both teams. ARKANSAS STATE BY 4

TROY (NL) North Texas 2:30 PM
North Texas lost a very even game last week to fall to 1-5 and the Mean Green may be again
without their QB. Troy is the team to beat in the Sun Belt and the Trojans have won and
covered in four straight games with sizable yardage edges. Statistically these teams are
actually quite close despite the great contrast in the records but Troy did have to play Florida
and the Trojans have played a tougher overall schedule. Troy has won and covered easily the
past two years in this series but North Texas may give a fight here with a line that likely will be
inflated based on the S/U records. TROY BY 13

KENTUCKY (-15½) UL-Monroe 6:00 PM
Monroe is 5-1 ATS on the season and 4-2 S/U as they currently lead the Sun Belt at 3-0.
Monroe would be wise to expend its energy getting ready for Troy next week rather than trying
to hang with Kentucky. The Wildcats are just 3-3 but they have had to face three of the top
SEC teams already this season. Outside of lopsided losses to the top two ranked teams in the
nation the Wildcats have acquitted themselves well and could make a surprising bowl run.
Kentucky won with a back-up QB at Auburn last week and the Wildcats have become a very
good rushing team. KENTUCKY BY 24

MID TENN STATE (-17) Western Kentucky 2:30 PM
Western Kentucky is on a 14-game losing streak but Middle Tennessee has also been a loser
the past two weeks despite a very promising start to the season. The Blue Raiders have been
solid in the favorite role even though they have not come close the last two games as small
underdogs. Western Kentucky has been out-gained in every game this season and the
numbers do not look promising for the Hilltoppers in this match-up. Western Kentucky is 3-2
ATS in the last five road games but the losing streak likely continues in a big way as MTSU
has proven to be a very solid team if properly motivated. MTSU BY 21

RATING 5 SAN FRANCISCO (+3) over Houston
RATING 4 DALLAS (-3½) over Atlanta
RATING 3 NY JETS (-6) over Oakland
RATING 2 CHICAGO (+2½) over Cincinnati
RATING 1 INDIANAPOLIS (-13) over St. Louis

San Diego (NL) KANSAS CITY 12:00 PM
The Chargers faced a make-or-break game Monday night last week and that result could
greatly impact how the team plays the rest of the way. The Chargers have been the worst
rushing team in the NFL by a wide margin but the offense has produced big numbers in the
passing game to dwarf what Kansas City has done. The biggest problems for both teams
have come on defense. Through six games Kansas City has allowed 24 points per game and
coming off finally getting a win could be a letdown situation for the Chiefs. San Diego has
been a solid road favorite in recent history and though the Chiefs were once always a play -onteam
as a home underdog, that rule has changed as the recent results have been marginal.
The Chargers could be a team that continues to fade if they lose to Denver and are buried in
the AFC West so be careful here as the Chiefs have some life. CHARGERS BY 7

Indianapolis (-13) ST. LOUIS (46) 12:00 PM
The winless versus the undefeated should greatly favor a rested Colts squad playing in a
friendly dome environment. The Colts have risen to the top of the NFL thanks to QB Manning
and although St. Louis has put together stronger efforts of late the Rams will not be able to
keep pace in this match-up. This is a steep line on the road but St. Louis is 3-11 the last 14
games as home underdogs and last week ’s OT loss was especially painful. The Colts would
be an average team without Manning but the Colts have been pouring on the points even late
with big leads and this is a team to continue to play on as Indianapolis has already won three
road games this season. While the Colts offense has been one of the best in the NFL as
expected, the defense has been very solid as well. COLTS BY 17

CINCINNATI (-2½) Chicago (42½) 3:15 PM
The Bears severely out-gained Atlanta last week but came up empty in three red zone trips
with a fumble, interception, and a loss on downs to end the game. Chicago has viable
receivers and a good defense but an area that has let the team down is special teams as a big
return allowed was a key play to set-up Atlanta’s winning drive. Cincinnati came back to earth
after a couple of big wins and the Bengals are just 1-6 ATS in the last seven home games.
Cincinnati’s defense is getting a bit of publicity but the team has allowed 45 more yards per
game than Chicago. The Bears have also not been the running team that many expected and
it has hurt them in goal line and 3rd and short situations as the Bears failed in several
opportunities last week. Cincinnati was exposed last week and the Bears will be in need of a
win following a very tough loss. Chicago has been tough against the run and the Bengals
have struggled when too reliant on the passing game. BEARS BY 3

Green Bay (-7) CLEVELAND (42½) 12:00 PM
The Browns have covered in three straight games and now will be a home underdog against a
suspect Packers team. Green Bay had a 26-0 win last week but the Packers have faced one
of the easier schedules in the league while Cleveland has faced the #1 schedule and the
Browns may be better than most realize. Cleveland continues to post ugly offensive numbers
but the defense has been solid and Green Bay has some serious protection issues having
allowed 25 sacks in five games. Statistically there is little support for Cleveland here but the
Browns are 10-5 in the last 15 games as home underdogs and the Packers will be facing a
tricky spot with the big Minnesota game on deck. PACKERS BY 3

PITTSBURGH (-4) Minnesota (45) 12:00 PM
The Steelers make some sense as a team to back at first glance as Minnesota has had a few
narrow wins in the 6-0 start and in terms of yardage the Vikings have not been that
impressive. Consider that the last three weeks Minnesota has had sizable leads late in the
games and the opponents have put up big numbers in the 4th quarter trying to catch up.
Baltimore did catch up last week in a near disaster but Minnesota was able to withstand that
to keep the win streak alive. Pittsburgh posted big passing yards last week against Cleveland
last week but the Steelers have not beaten a winning team this season. Undefeated
underdogs in game 7 or later are 5-1 ATS since 1980 and Minnesota seems to have
everything going its way even if there appears to be vulnerability. STEELERS BY 3

New England (-14) Tampa Bay (45) London, England 12:00 PM
The Bucs are 0-6 but there has been some promise shown with competitive efforts the past
two weeks. Tampa Bay has been a strong ATS performer as a double-digit underdog and the
Patriots will be overvalued coming of the snow blowout last week against winless Tennessee.
New England has endured a difficult schedule and this could be a taxing situation in a brand
new environment while facing steep expectations. New England benefited from five turnovers
last week which could leave them in a negative situation this week. The Patriots have not
been as strong away from home and the elements may not be as helpful this week. Tampa
Bay is getting much more solid QB play and the Bucs should actually be the superior rushing
team in this match-up. Defensively New England has been a far better team but this could be
a solid spot for an underdog on an inflated spread. PATRIOTS BY 10

HOUSTON (-3) San Francisco (44) 12:00 PM
The Texans scored a big win last week to move to 3-3 but this is not a team that is likely to
make the next step. The 49ers have had two weeks to prepare for this game coming off an
ugly loss and a sharp performance will be delivered. Houston’s defense has shown some
improvement in recent weeks but is still allowing over 350 yards per game. The Texans have
also featured a very marginal running game on the year and this could be a bad situation
playing as a home favorite against an intense defensive team. The 49ers are 5-0 in the last
five games as underdogs while Houston has not performed well when expected to win. Look
for a great effort from San Francisco as the Texans continue to take one step forward but then
another step back. San Francisco is a team that will be well prepared with the extra time off
and a big day on both sides could be expected. 49ERS BY 6

NY Jets (-6) OAKLAND (35) 3:05 PM
The Raiders are considered the worst team in the league by most but Oakland now has two
wins and last week ’s win was a true shocker taking out one of the NFC favorites. The Jets are
just 1-6 in the last seven games as road favorites and New York will face long travel this
week. QB Sanchez appeared to be in shock and with his normal confident charisma
evacuated after last week’s dreadful performance and the Jets have fallen back to earth after
a 3-0 start. The Raiders were able to run the ball well last week but Philadelphia quickly
shifted into pass only mode which played into the advantage for Oakland. The Jets are likely
to stick to the ground following a 318-yard rushing game and the Sanchez mistakes. New
York should still be the superior team in this match-up and Oakland has not been able to put
together back-to-back solid efforts. JETS BY 10

CAROLINA (NL) Buffalo 3:05 PM
Both struggling teams pulled out wins last week and the Bills did so with back-up QB Ryan
Fitzpatrick. Buffalo took advantage of six turnovers but still needed most of the overtime
period to get the win while the Panthers needed a late score to break a tie against winless
Tampa Bay. Carolina’s struggles have been played through one of the easiest schedules in
the league but the Panthers did show some promise by finally getting a big day from the
talented group of running backs. A big part of that is not falling behind early and the Bills have
not been a quick strikesquad. Carolina has been the vastly superior defensive team and the
holes in the Buffalo defense appear to be a great match-up advantage for Carolina’s running
game. The Panthers have been a decent home team and with back-to-back wins this is a
team that has a little momentum going and can catch the Bills in a tough situation facing a
second straight road game following a long OT game. PANTHERS BY 13

New Orleans (-6) MIAMI (46½) 3:15 PM
The Saints delivered in a big way in last week ’s undefeated showdown but there could be a
letdown facing a much different climate in Miami. The Saints have delivered a strong record
as a road favorite but Miami is a team on the rise coming off back-to-back wins and well
prepared off the bye week. Miami has faced one of the toughest schedules in the NFL as only
one opponent currently has a losing record. The Saints have great statistics on both sides of
the ball but the schedule has been fairly weak and they are built on a dome environment. New
Orleans has been much less productive away from home and the Saints have caught a lot of
breaks with turnovers this season. A close call might be coming for New Orleans as this
should be a favorable underdog situation for Miami. SAINTS BY 3

DALLAS (-3½) Atlanta (47) 3:15 PM
The Cowboys have been the second most productive offensive team in terms of yardage but
the numbers have not added up as well on the scoreboard. Atlanta is now 4-1 after a big
Sunday night win but the Falcons caught tons of breaks in the last two games and this looks
like one of the more phony contenders at this point in the season. The running game is not
close to as strong as last season and the defense has been there for the taking, allowing 360
yards per game. Atlanta has only allowed 15 points per game but those numbers will catch up
as the Falcons have seen several opponents miss on scoring opportunities. One big game
against the 49ers is skewing the season statistics for the Falcons and this should be a
challenging road environment. COWBOYS BY 7

NY GIANTS (-7) Arizona (46½) 7:20 PM
Most have viewed the Cardinals as a fluke with last year’s Super Bowl run as the results have
been marginal this season but look no further than the schedule as Arizona has had a tough
slate early in the year. In contrast the Giants had faced the weakest schedule in the league
before last week ’s game. The big showdown with the Saints turned into a laugher as New
York was horribly exposed on both sides of the ball. The Giants have been a tough home
team but Arizona has covered in four consecutive games as underdogs. Arizona has a limited
running game which will be a major disadvantage in this match-up but the Cardinal defense
has been much better than most assume. This is an inflated line as the Cardinals are still an
explosive offensive team that will be a favorable team to back catching more than seven
points. The Giants are yet to have an impressive win as wins over the Cowboys and Redskins
are not even valuable at this point in the year. GIANTS BY 3

MONDAY, OCTOBER 26, 2009

Philadelphia (-6½) WASHINGTON 7:35 PM
Changing the QB and the play -calling is not likely to be a magic fix for the Redskins who are
on the way to a disastrous season that is likely to have many casualties. The Redskins can
not be trusted to score points and even though this has been a decent defensive team the
Eagles should have an excellent plan of attack following an embarrassing loss to the Raiders
last week. Philadelphia has great numbers on both sides of the ball even though it did not add
up to success last week and a veteran club will get prepared in a much more effective fashion
this week. Washington has a shot at redemption but the Redskins can not be trusted given the
inability to score and the losses to some of the worst teams in the league through the #32
rated schedule. There is plenty of history in this match-up be solving the disarray for the
Redskins with a few shake-up moves is not going to happen. EAGLES BY 10

CKO CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF

11 *N.Y. GIANTS over Arizona
*N.Y. Giants 34 - Arizona 13

10 RUTGERS over *Army
RUTGERS 33 - *Army 13

10 WAKE FOREST over *Navy
WAKE FOREST 34 - *Navy 26

10 *SOUTH CAROLINA over Vanderbilt
*SOUTH CAROLINA 31 - Vanderbilt 7

10 *STANFORD over Arizona State
*STANFORD 33 - Arizona State 17

New York took a bad beating in New Orleans on Sunday, but Tom Coughlin’s Giants have been extremely resilient crew since Eli Manning took over starting duties late in 2004. N.Y. has a 19-6 pointspread record after its last 25 straight-up losses and has compiled a 19-8 record as a favorite in its last 27 regular season games. The Giants also own fundamental edges over the Cards. New York ranks 5th in the NFL in rushing, while Arizona is 31st. The Card defense is the best in the league against the run, but that stat is somewhat misleading, as just one of Arizona’s previous foes ranks in the top half of the league in rushing. The Giant pass defense is ranked first in the league, while the Cardinals are 31st. Eli Manning was hampered somewhat by the plantar fasciitis problem, but the normal recovery period with proper treatment is two weeks, and he should be back close to 100% by Sunday night. Card QB Kurt Warner won’t be at the top of his game in windy Giants Stadium (he had 6 turnovers & was sacked 5 times vs. the Jets there LY). Look for focused effort from Giant team that is at its best after a defeat. Rutgers pleased as punch to be stepping down in class to face Army, a team it has dominated by a score of 71-9 the last two years. Scarlet Knights had their problems last Friday vs. an improved Pittsburgh team with a sr. QB, physical and experienced defense, and one of the top freshmen in the country in darting RB Dion Lewis (918 YR). No such problems present themselves this week, with Army not exactly stable at QB, undersized overall on defense, and lacking star power on offense. Greg Schiano’s quick, penetrating defense has easily disrupted the Black Knight offense the last two years. Meanwhile, Schiano’s key freshmen—6-5 QB Tom Savage (23 of 39, 248 YP vs. Pitt) and WR/PR/wildcat QB Mohamed Sanu—earning their spurs game by game. Rutgers (4-2) might very well be Army’s toughest foe to date. Much of the “novelty advantage” of Navy’s triple-option spread is lost when the Midshipmen face Wake Forest, as this will be the fourth meeting between the two teams in the last 1+ seasons (once in 2007, once in 2008, once in the 2008 EagleBank Bowl). The Demon Deacons are big enough up the middle to contain Navy’s bread-and-butter dive plays, and experienced enough on the edges to prevent many long gainers on the outside, forcing the Middies to the air more than they like. And, with more throwing, the clear edge goes to WF sr. QB Riley Skinner. He had a rough time last week vs. Clemson’s athletic back seven, but should do much better vs. the smaller, slower Navy defense that has yielded 90 points in the three previous meetings vs. the Deacons. Savvy SEC scouts tell us they are surprised that 5-2 South Carolina is laying less than 2 TDs, considering that regressing Vanderbilt (winless in SEC) has 4 DD losses and has managed only 29 points in three conference games. ‘Dores HC Bobby Johnson’s desperate move of DB Graham to WR didn’t help at all in 34-10 home loss vs. previouslystruggling Georgia. And with Vandy’s scatter-armed QB L. Smith (only 49 of 115 vs. conference foes) lacking playmakers and operating behing a nicked-up OL, offensive woes continue vs. gang-tackling ‘Cock defense (18.6 ppg), spearheaded by head-hunting LB Norwood (SEC-leading 6 sacks). Meanwhile, look for USC’s productive QB Garcia (58%, 9 TDs) and his better-balanced attack to thrive vs. a banged-up, overworked Vandy defense severely gashed by Dawgs last week (allowed a season-high 399 yds.). Moreover, Johnson is complaining about his poor STs play (last in SEC in punt coverage), and ‘Cocks own the kicking edge with accurate PK Lanning (10 of 12 FGs). Double-revenge works.The “form chart” has certainly held up well this season for Stanford, which has continued its overachieving ways on the Farm by stretching its home cover streak to nine. And now that Cardinal (with Oregon, USC, Cal, and Notre Dame on deck) facing a near must-win situation after a pair of bitter losses on the Pac-10 trail, expect Jim Harbaugh’s bunch to bounce back. Regional scouts remain unconvinced about ASU, which despite Saturday’s miracle last-second win over U-Dub has continued to misfire on attack end behind limited sr. QB Sullivan (only 5 TDP) and often-sloppy “O” guilty of nine giveaways the past three weeks. Meanwhile, rapidly-maturing Cardinal RS frosh QB Luck (off careerbest 423 YP at Arizona) now has full grasp of Harbaugh’s expansive playbook, while slamming sr. RB Gerhart continues to provide hard-nosed infantry force.

GOLD SHEET

CENTRAL MICHIGAN by 18 over Bowling Green
AIR FORCE by 1 over Utah
ARKANSAS by 6 over Mississippi
FLORIDA ATLANTIC by 9 over Louisiana-Lafayette

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 22

*NORTH CAROLINA 27 - Florida State 22—True, Tar Heels (just 111 ypg
rushing) can’t run a lick, which is a big reason why sputtering UNC attack
produced just 22 total points in 3 of first 4 games vs. FBS foes. Still, 2-4 Florida
State is fielding its weakest defense (allowing 427 ypg!) in recent memory, while
athletic Heel stoppers (just 238 ypg) rank among nation’s top platoons. Won’t
dismiss possibility of Seminoles rallying down stretch for beleaguered HC
Bowden; just wouldn’t bet on it. CABLE TV—ESPN
DNP...SR: Florida State 14-1-1)

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 23

*Rutgers 30 - ARMY 13—Certainly not enamored of laying substantial
points on road with Rutgers and its limited offense under direction of true frosh
QB Savage. But Scarlet Knights have easily throttled Army in last couple
meetings, and their swarming defense (permitting only 92 ypg rushing)
matches up well against one-dimensional Black Knights (nation’s-worst 66 ypg
passing). CABLE TV—ESPN2
(08-RUTGERS 30-Army 3...R.25-9 A.47/217 R.30/162 R.23/34/0/359 A.2/4/0/2 R.2 A.2)
(08-RUTGERS -18' 30-3 07-Rutgers -19' 41-6...SR: Army 18-17)

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 24

MARSHALL 35 - Uab 20—See a lot more promise in Marshall, which has
demonstrated an ability to pound the rock on ground vs. foes on its own level.
UAB sr. QB Webb (only 72 ypg passing last 4) lacks many (any?) quality
weapons, so Herd should thunder to comfortable home victory behind aptlynamed
star RB Marshall (137 ypg rushing—second in nation) and their
improved defense (allowed only 16 ppg last 5).
(08-UAB 23-Mar. 21...U.23-18 U.47/215 M.30/82 M.17/28/1/285 U.15/28/2/217 U.1 M.1)
(08-UAB +3 23-21 07-MAR. -14' 46-39 06-Mar. +6 31-24...SR: Marshall 3-1)

SYRACUSE 28 - Akron 14—Since Akron offense (21 points or fewer in last
4 games) down to third-string QB, true frosh Nicely, reluctantly lay fair price with
rested, revenge-minded Orange...even with reckless QB Paulus (benched in
home loss vs. West Virginia).
(08-Akron 42-SYR. 28...A.29-20 S.43/218 A.46/218 A.20/26/1/260 S.13/20/1/135 A.0 S.1)
(08-Akron +4' 42-28...SR: Akron 1-0)

DUKE 41 - Maryland 28—It’s certainly a brave new world when longsuffering
Duke is laying substantial points in a conference game. But current
reality finds Blue Devils on the upswing under clever second-year HC Cutcliffe
and his cagey sr. QB Lewis (818 YP & 7 TDP in last 2 games), while Maryland
scouts predicting pink slip coming for tepid Terps’ mentor Friedgen.
(DNP...SR: Maryland 30-18)

Georgia Tech 29 - VIRGINIA 20—Go-with vs. go-with. Money-making
Jacket mentor Paul Johnson is 12-5 vs. spread since taking over at Tech, and
Cavalier HC Groh has quieted many of his critics (for now) with 9 covers in last
13 on board. Side with visiting Jackets (282 ypg rushing), whose triple-option
attack is much further along than UVa’s nascent spread, although Groh was
dynamite home dog early in tenure at Charlottesville.
(08-Va. 24-GA. TECH 17...V.23-17 G.41/156 V.36/126 V.29/39/2/270 G.7/15/1/103 V.1 G.2)
(08-Va. +14 24-17 07-VA. +3' 28-23 06-TECH -17 24-7...SR: Virginia 16-14-1)

MIAMI-FLORIDA 24 - Clemson 23—We’re unabashed admirers of Miami
soph QB Harris, perhaps as much for his imperturbability as his pinpoint
passing. But even Harris will find it tough to maintain his composure against
gnarly Tiger defense that’s permitting just 148 ypg through the air. Star
Clemson sr. RB/return man Spiller almost always good for a big play or two (or
three), so Canes hard-pressed to escape with SU win.
(DNP...SR: Miami-Florida 5-2)

PURDUE 34 - Illinois 19—llinois offense couldn’t convert yards into points
against Indiana once again, as Illini HC Zook gave the starting QB job back to
Juice Williams. Purdue coming off emotional upset of Ohio State, and
Boilermakers benefited from 5 Buckeye giveaways, a 281-yd., 2-TDP
performance from QB Elliott, and a rejuvenated defense that held the Buckeyes
to just 66 YR. Illini score fewer than 17 ppg (112th). TV—ESPN2
(06-Purdue +3 42-31...SR: Illinois 44-37-4)

Central Michigan 35 - BOWLING GREEN 17—QB matchup between
CMU’s LeFevour and BG’s Sheehan (4th in total offense) will dominate the
talking points, but the defenses will decide the winner. Chippewa version allows
fewer than 16 ppg, while Falcons give up 29, rank 109th in sacks and 105th in
sacks allowed, and they suspended their best defensive player in September.
CMU owns big ST edge & is 19-7-1 vs. spread last 27 in MAC play.
(06-CMU -7' 31-14...SR: Bowling Green 21-17)

NORTHWESTERN 22 - Indiana 23—The underdog is 5-0 in Northwestern’s
games, so Indiana worth a look. Respect Wildcat attack, as QB Kafka milking
WRs Marshausen (31 catches last 3 games) & Brewer (8 recs. vs. Michigan
State) in underneath zones. However, NU has trouble stretching defenses and
in pass protection. Hoosier DEs Middleton & Kirlew bring lots of pressure, and
QB Chappell is off the best game of his career (333 YP, 3 TDs vs. Illini).
(08-IND. 21-North. 19...N.23-17 N.47/152 I.36/72 I.22/35/0/247 N.22/35/2/164 I.0 N.3)
(08-IND. +8 21-19 07-NWU +2' 31-28...SR: Northwestern 42-34-1)

OHIO STATE 34 - Minnesota 10—Ohio State’s turnover-fueled loss at
Purdue pretty much takes the Buckeyes out of title consideration, and HC
Tressel has to be concerned about Buckeye running game (just 3 ypc last 2
games). Minny attack (114th nationally) having problems, however, as Gopher
QB Weber has thrown for a total of just 175 yds., 0 TDs, with 3 ints. in last 2
games. OSU defense (just 27 total points allowed in 4 games prior to Purdue
debacle) should be in a surly mood. TV-ESPN
(08-OHIO ST. 34-Minn. 21...O.21-18 O.37/279 M.28/81 M.23/36/1/187 O.13/22/0/135 O.1 M.2)
(08-OSU -19' 34-21 07-Osu -23' 30-7 06-OSU -27 44-0...SR: Ohio State 41-7)

PITTSBURGH 30 - South Florida 19—Big edge for well-balanced Pitt
offense (212 ypg passing, 175 rushing), as raw, scrambling USF RS frosh QB
Daniels’ frequent improvisations resulting in a few big plays, but not enough first
downs. “Technicals” (Panthers just 3-9 last 12 as home chalk; Bulls covered 4
straight as road dog) do not support fundamental case, however.
(08-Pitt 26-S. FLA. 21...P.24-14 P.45/146 S.35/116 P.17/28/0/228 S.11/21/1/129 P.2 S.0)
(08-Pitt +13' 26-21 07-Usf -10 48-37 06-USF +4' 22-12...SR: EVEN 3-3)

WEST VIRGINIA 35 - Connecticut 21—Tough to gauge Huskies’ frame of
mind heading into this clash, as UConn is mourning loss of recently-murdered
starting CB Howard. While Huskies would surely love to honor their fallen
comrade with winning road effort, recent meetings against much more athletic
West Virginia (won & covered last 5 in series by average 43-15 score) have
been no contest. CABLE TV—ESPNU
(08-W. Va. 35-CONN. 13...17-17 W.51/216 C.25/119 C.17/37/3/166 W.11/18/0/121 W.0 C.2)
(08-Wva -3' 35-13 07-WVA -19 66-21 06-Wva -23 37-11...SR: West Virginia 5-0)

*SOUTH CAROLINA 29 - Vanderbilt 10—Vandy has been an attractive
road dog, but don’t expect trend to continue vs. double-revenged minded South
Carolina, which has nothing to be ashamed of following 20-6 loss at Bama
(‘Cocks forced 4 TOs). USC’s mobile QB Garcia welcomes a banged-up ‘Dore
defense (allowed season-high 399 yds. vs. Georgia) after facing Tide’s
ferocious stop unit. Doubt lifeless ‘Dore attack (woeful 29 pts. in 4 SEC games)
shows a pulse vs. stingy ‘Cock defense (just 18 ppg). TV—ESPNU
(08-VANDY 24-S. Car. 17...S.18-15 V.41/135 S.29/92 S.23/39/2/233 V.8/13/0/90 V.1 S.1)
(08-VANDY +9' 24-17 07-Vandy +13' 17-6 06-Usc -3' 31-13...SR: South Carolina 14-4)

NEBRASKA 33 - Iowa State 10—NU coach Bo Pelini was greatly
displeased with his team’s effort in last week’s sloppy, 31-10 home loss vs.
Texas Tech. The Cornhuskers have previously responded well under such
circumstances, covering their last three after a defeat. Iowa State (4-3)
improved, but has had problems stepping up in class. And sr. QB Austen
Arnaud dealing with a hand injury (check status).
(08-Neb. 35-IOWA ST. 7...N.29-11 N.41/220 I.25/105 N.27/37/0/328 I.16/29/0/113 N.3 I.2)
(08-Neb. -7' 35-7 07-NEB. -21 35-17 06-Neb. -7 28-14...SR: Nebraska 85-16-2)

EASTERN MICHIGAN 23 - Ball State 20—These two are a combined 0-13
SU, as EMU’s season essentially ended with injury to QB Schmitt Sept. 19,
while Ball State has suffered a series of injuries, including one last week to QB
Page (thumb) which forced 5th-year sr. Justice into action (6 of 21 vs. BG).
Cards’ Stan Parrish has lost 37 straight as a HC!
(08-BALL ST. 38-Emu 16...E.22-21 B.24/163 E.29/67 E.28/50/2/309 B.18/32/1/245 B.0 E.0)
(08-BSU -26 38-16 07-Bsu -4 38-16 06-BSU -5 38-20...SR: Ball State 28-20-2)

Northern Illinois 31 - MIAMI-OHIO 10—Miami is 0-7 SU and on a 6-16
spread run, and RedHawks have the nation’s least-productive offense (10 ppg)
and one of the worst defenses (allowing 36 ppg, ranking 112th). Nice combo.
NIU RB Meco Brown (5.6 ypc) and QB Harnish manage to put up points (30 ppg)
and take care of the ball (3rd in TO margin).
(08-N. ILL. 17-Miami 13...16-16 N.37/215 M.30/135 M.19/35/0/149 N.11/21/0/111 N.0 M.0)
(08-NIU -10' 17-13 06-Niu -13' 28-25...SR: Miami-Ohio 7-6)

Oklahoma State 34 - BAYLOR 13—Baylor sr. backup QB Blake Syzmanski
was picked off three times last week at Iowa State. So, find it hard to go-against
OSU’s underrated Zac Robinson, well-protected by the veteran Cowboy OL that
has allowed a nation-leading only two sacks! OSU’s skill performers (soph WR
Hubert Anyiam 10 recs. last week) stepping in well for injured stars.
(08-OKLA. ST. 34-Bay. 6...O.25-14 O.58/219 B.31/42 O.13/20/0/238 B.15/27/0/162 O.1 B.1)
(08-OSU -17 34-6 07-Osu -14 45-14 06-OSU -16' 66-24...SR: Oklahoma State 15-12)

OHIO 27 - Kent State 10—Kent State can catch Ohio in the MAC East
standings, but that won’t happen unless Flash frosh QB Keith reverses form
(completed just 20 of 44 passes last 2 games). Ohio has won last 3, covered
last 4, and has reversed last season’s propensity for TOs under respected HC
Solich, who has Bobcats thinking MAC East title.
(08-Ohio 26-KENT ST. 19...23-23 K.37/192 O.46/176 O.16/26/1/203 K.15/25/2/200 O.1 K.1)
(08-Ohio -1 26-19 07-Ksu -2' 33-25 06-Ohio +6' 17-7...SR: Ohio 38-21-2)

WESTERN MICHIGAN 31 - Buffalo 19—Buffalo soph QB Maynard has
thrown 7 ints. vs. just 3 TDs in 3 MAC contests, while WMU counterpart Hiller
has thrown for 5 scores and 680 yds. in last 2. Bulls were getting a boost on the
ground from jr. RB Ike Nduka until he injured his ankle last Saturday vs. Akron.
Bronco RB West has run for 111 ypg & scored 6 TDs in last 5 games. He and
Hiller too much for Turner Gill’s defense to stop.
(08-W. Mich. 34-BUF. 28 (OT)...W.23-20 B.38/158 W.17/52 W.42/63/1/345 B.18/35/1/164 W.2 B.0)
(08-Western Michigan +1' 34-28 (OT)...SR: Western Michigan 4-0)

UTAH STATE 31 - Louisiana Tech 24—Often-awkward travel to remote
WAC outposts (try booking that Ruston-to-Logan journey with your travel
agent) has proven hard for La Tech to digest, evidenced by Bulldogs’ mere 1
cover in last 11 as a visitor. Livewire USU QB Borel (353 YP in last week’s
narrow loss vs. Nevada) capable of firing deciding scoring shots for Utags (now
on 8-1-1 spread upswing).
(08-LA. TECH 45-Utah St. 38...L.22-18 L.52/200 U.39/164 U.12/18/3/204 L.12/18/2/145 L.1 U.0)
(08-TECH -14 45-38 07-Tech -2' 31-21 06-TECH -6 48-35...SR: Louisiana Tech 4-2)

NOTRE DAME 27 - Boston College 26—Although Eagles are spotless at
home, they’ve been annihilated in their only two road games so far. Suspect
Domer defense (allowing 420 ypg) certainly not the equal of stout Clemson &
Va. Tech stop units that limited visiting BC to just 1 total first-half yard (!),
however. Irish might manage to snap vexing six-game losing streak to their
Catholic rival, but it’s likely to take all 60 minutes to dispatch Eagles & soph RB
Harris (school-record 264 YR & 5 TDs vs. NCS last week). TV—NBC
(08-BOS. COL. 17-N. Dame 0...N.16-13 B.41/167 N.21/66 N.26/46/4/226 B.9/22/0/79 B.0 N.1)
(08-BC -3' 17-0 07-Bc -13' 27-14...SR: EVEN 9-9)

ALABAMA 31 - Tennessee 9—Since UT QB Crompton’s career-best
performance came vs. defensively-permissive Georgia, unconvinced Vols
hang with Bama bunch better focused after season-high 4 TOs & 10 penalties
in ugly 20-6 win vs. South Carolina. Sans ground support, Crompton reverts
back to his erratic ways vs. overpowering Tide defense (12 ppg, 2.3 ypc; 10 ints.).
Meanwhile, look for Bama’s recently-stagnating aerial game (only 246 YP last 2
games) to provide greater diversion for scintillating RB Ingram (569 YR last 3
games). Saban’s squad 10-2 vs. spread last 12 reg.-season games. TV—CBS
(08-Ala. 29-TENN. 9...A.23-10 A.43/178 T.21/36 A.17/24/0/188 T.16/28/0/137 A.1 T.0)
(08-Ala. -5' 29-9 07-ALA. +1 41-17 06-TENN. -11 16-13...SR: Alabama 46-38-7)

WASHINGTON 31 - Oregon 30—U-Dub fans could be excused for loading
up on sedatives to calm nerves caused by Huskies’ tendency to leave it very
late each week. But with Steve Sarkisian “coaching up” QB Jake Locker into
first-round territory, new-look UW has proven it can trade points with almost
anyone. Oregon could be missing a little quack if QB Masoli compromised by
sore knee that kept him out of recent win at UCLA. TV—ABC
(08-ORE. 44-Wash. 10...O.23-18 O.44/256 W.43/95 O.16/28/1/240 W.17/35/0/147 O.0 W.1)
(08-ORE. -13' 44-10 07-Ore. -12' 55-34 06-ORE. -14' 34-14...SR: Washington 58-38-4)

*TEXAS TECH 49 - Texas A&M 23—A&M found out the hard way last week
(62-14 loss at K-State) what happens when a team counting on so many
freshmen plays a super-motivated opponent on the road. Aggies can’t count on
much relief in Lubbock, as the Red Raiders view this matchup as a “hate rivalry”
and have covered 7 straight vs. A&M. TT’s defense (23 sacks) has plenty of
bite; Aggie OL leaky.
(08-Tex. Tech 43-TEX. A&M 25...T.33-19 T.23/111 A.23/20 T.44/56/2/450 A.27/40/0/286 T.1 A.1)
(08-Tech -21 43-25 07-TECH -9' 35-7 06-Tech +2' 31-27...SR: Texas A&M 34-32-1)

MICHIGAN 24 - Penn State 21—Michigan has been tough in “The Big
House” this season (5-0 SU; 3-1 vs. number), and it’s been a house of horrors
for Penn State (lost 5 straight in Ann Arbor). Nittany Lion QB Clark heating up
(529 YP, 4 TDP, 2 rushing scores last 2 games), but Michigan represents a
formidable foe for Penn State team that’s feasted on cupcakes. Wolverine
spread offense can keep Nittany Lions off balance. TV—ABC
(08-PENN ST. 46-Mich. 17...P.22-15 P.38/231 M.46/202 P.19/33/0/251 M.12/22/0/89 P.1 M.1)
(08-PSU -24' 46-17 07-MICH. +2' 14-9 06-Mich. -5 17-10...SR: Michigan 10-4)

Oklahoma 26 - KANSAS 24—Injuries taking a toll on OU (3 losses by a total
of 5 points). Sooners defensive superiority and ground game should allow OU
to eventually prevail. But not before sr. QB Todd Reesing (67%, 15 TDs, 4 ints.)
hits deluxe WRs Kerry Meier & Dezmon Briscoe (92 combined recs., 10 TDs
already) often enough to make things interesting. Quick RB Jake Sharp back
for KU. TV—ABC
(08-OKLA. 45-Kansas 31...O.36-26 O.44/206 K.30/134 O.36/53/0/468 K.25/42/2/357 O.0 K.0)
(08-OKLAHOMA -19' 45-31...SR: Oklahoma 67-27-6)

*Texas 23 - MISSOURI 16—Mizzou’s NFL-sized soph QB Blaine Gabbert (5
ints. the last two games) must grow up in a hurry vs. the up-the-field Texas
defense. But bear in mind UT has covered only 3 of its last 12 games, and QB
Colt McCoy is dealing with a thumbnail injury. Tigers had Nebraska on the
ropes in last home game. TV—ABC
(08-TEXAS 56-Mo. 31...T.32-24 T.40/203 M.19/30 T.30/33/0/388 M.31/41/1/318 T.0 M.0)
(08-TEXAS -4' 56-31...SR: Texas 16-5)

Wake Forest 26 - NAVY 24—Have nothing but respect for well-coached,
industrious Midshipmen. But Deacons have been a righteous road warrior
under respected mentor Grobe (16-9 vs. spread last 25 away from home), so
might shade savvy Wake sr. QB Skinner, with these familiar foes meeting for
fourth time in just last two years!
(08-Navy 24-W. FOR. 17...W.16-14 N.59/292 W.31/43 W.26/40/4/270 N.3/4/0/51 N.2 W.2)
(08-W. For. 29-Navy 19...W.18-12 W.48/239 N.48/221 W.11/11/0/166 N.2/7/1/32 W.1 N.1)
(08-Navy +16' 24-17, Wfu -3 29-19 (Eagle Bank Bowl) 07-Wfu -3 44-24...SR: WFU 6-4)

COLORADO STATE 27 - San Diego State 23—Like a clever boxer who
relies on ring savvy instead of a big punch, CSU more likely to prevail via
decision than a KO these days. Meanwhile, improving SDSU can take this the
full 12 rounds if soph QB Lindley (3 TDP vs. BYU) continues recent upswing.
(08-Csu 38-SDSU 34...C.25-23 S.34/226 C.33/211 C.25/34/0/296 S.24/33/1/166 C.0 S.0)
(08-Csu -8' 38-34 07-Sds +13' 24-20 06-SDS +1 17-6...SR: San Diego State 15-13)

Air Force 20 - UTAH 19—AF has made a habit of playing Utes tough
(Falcons have covered 6 straight at Salt Lake City!). Falcons’ savvy HC
Calhoun continues to praise his stout defensive unit (16 ppg). And recall, Utah
needed TD with :58 left to pull out 30-23 win in Colorado Springs LY, despite a
paltry 53 YR for AF. With nifty QB Jefferson back, opportunistic service
academy (+13 TO margin) covers again.
(08-Utah 30-A. FORCE 23...U.24-9 U.53/197 A.42/53 U.16/24/1/243 A.7/13/2/138 U.2 A.0)
(08-Utah -9' 30-23 07-Afa +7' 20-12 06-Utah -1 17-14...SR: Air Force 14-11)

NEVADA 46 - Idaho 29—Anyone outside of the Kibbie Dome who predicted
Idaho (also 7-0 vs. line!) would be bowl-eligible by mid-October should win a
lifetime supply of potatoes. But revved-up Wolf Pack Pistol a historically bad
matchup for undersized Idaho “D,” and Chris Ault has been regularly covering
games as Reno chalk (2-0 TY; 17-3 in role) since returning to sidelines in 2004.
(08-Nev. 49-IDAHO 14...N.27-17 N.47/264 I.28/24 I.22/47/1/292 N.19/24/0/243 N.2 I.0)
(08-Nevada -24 49-14 07-NEVADA -17' 37-21 06-Nevada -10 45-7...SR: Nevada 17-9)

ARIZONA 37 - Ucla 22—Like a fading movie star from nearby Hollywood,
UCLA (just 7-11 SU for Rick neuheisel) an afterthought these days. And trading
points with Arizona’s suddenly-percolating spread and hot QB Foles (75%
completions & 1053 YP last 3 starts) will be a tall order for Bruin “O” still to
settling for too many FGs (17 of ‘em already by PK Forbath!) in red zone.
(08-Arizona 31-UCLA 10...A.15-11 U.28/115 A.35/111 A.16/29/0/222 U.15/31/0/81 A.1 U.1)
(08-Arizona -3 31-10 07-ARIZONA +1 34-27 06-UCLA -12 27-7...SR: UCLA 19-12-2)

CALIFORNIA 52 - Washington State 5—Now that confidence properly
restored to Cal “O” after last week’s fireworks display at UCLA, Bears up to
serious wood-chopping duties vs. outmanned Wazzu (which only lost by 63 vs.
Cal LY in Pullman). Jeff Tedford’s team has covered last 8 as Berkeley chalk
(08-Cal. 66-WASH. 3...C.20-9 C.40/391 W.35/57 C.14/24/0/114 W.13/30/4/110 C.1 W.0)
(08-Cal. -13' 66-3 07-CAL. -14' 20-17 06-Cal. -9 21-3...SR: California 40-25-5)

*TOLEDO 28 - Temple 23—Since Temple’s poised frosh QB Dantin (34 of
52 for 362 yds. last two games) has effectively replaced injured vet leader
Opelt, willing to support resurgent, bowl-seeking Rockets, who’ve faced a much
tougher slate than Temple. Owls’ primary weapon RB Pierce injured (see
Special Ticker), while Toledo’s blazing frosh phenom WR Page (51 catches) a
candidate for MAC newcomer of year. (DNP...SR: Toledo 6-2)

Arkansas 26 - MISSISSIPPI 20—Coming Arkansas has played
“lights-out” ever since 35-7 loss at Bama (3 straight covers, near upset at “The
Swamp”), so compelled to take Hog squad getting solid play on both lines.
Believe Arkansas’ rifle-armed QB Mallett (224 YP, no ints. vs Gators) makes a
few more vertical plays than Ole Miss’ up-and-down counterpart Snead. And
with elusive 5-9 soph RB D. Johnson (107 YR vs. UF) picking up for injured M.
Smith, Arkansas defeats former mentor Houston Nutt after near miss LY.
(08-Miss. 23-ARK. 21...M.21-17 M.45/160 A.25/104 A.20/38/1/282 M.14/27/1/209 M.0 A.0)
(08-Miss. -6' 23-21 07-Ark. -5' 44-8 06-ARK. -20' 38-3...SR: Arkansas 30-24-1)

CINCINNATI 37 - Louisville 16—Last three meetings in bitter Ohio River
rivalry decided by total of only 18 points, and Cincy’s star sr. QB Pike likely
sidelined with wrist injury. Still, Bearcat backup QB soph Collaros (good runner)
impressed with a strong relief effort at South Florida. And Cincy HC Kelly’s
rising reputation stands in stark contrast to plummeting stock of once highlyregarded
Card mentor Kragthorpe. TV-ESPNU
(08-Cincy 28-LVL. 20...17-17 C.31/131 L.37/120 C.20/36/1/274 L.19/35/1/204 C.1 L.1)
(08-Cincy -4 28-20 07-Lvl. +9' 28-24 06-LVL. -25 23-17...SR: Cincinnati 27-21-1)

*SOUTHERN MISS 42 - Tulane 17—Want no part of terrible Tulane (3-11
vs. spread last 14 on board), although, be advised, Southern Miss has failed to
cover its last eight tries as double-digit chalk at Hattiesburg.
(06-S. Miss -6 31-3...SR: Southern Miss 21-7)

Ucf 34 - RICE 16—C-USA scouts also advising us to stay away...far
away...from woeful Rice. UCF’s 1-6 spread mark last 7 as road chalk prevents
unequivocal support for offensively-limited Golden Knights, however.
(06-Rice +6 40-29...SR: EVEN 1-1)

Colorado 22 - KANSAS STATE 20—Both teams improving while still in
developmental stages. But Colorado (four straight covers) got a boost last
week from soph QB Tyler Hansen, who now reads defenses better and has the
valuable speed to allow the Buffs to run spread-option plays. Can K-State deal
with its unexpectedly easy blowout (62-14!!!) of A&M?
(08-COLO. 14-Kan. St. 13...C.24-15 C.57/247 K.23/112 K.20/41/0/237 C.13/25/1/106 C.1 K.2)
(08-COLO. -3' 14-13 07-KSU -5 47-20 06-Ksu +3' 34-21...SR: Colorado 44-19-1)

*Iowa 23 - MICHIGAN STATE 17—Technicals all point to Iowa, which has
won 11 straight, covered 6 of last 7 vs. MSU, and is 8-1-1 last 10 on the road,
while Michigan State is just 9-18-2 vs. the number last 29 chances at home.
The Hawkeyes also own the superior defense led by LB Angerer (only 15 ppg)
and rank 4th in TO margin. Iowa’s deep, experienced 2ndary capable of keeping
Spartan pass game in check.
(08-MICH. ST. 16-Iowa 13...I.19-15 I.39/151 M.34/91 M.13/24/1/184 I.15/22/1/158 M.0 I.2)
(08-MSU -6' 16-13 07-IOWA +3 34-27 (OT)...SR: Iowa 20-18-2)

*Tcu 24 - BYU 19—Not sure fundamentals any better for BYU than they
were LY when getting popped in Fort Worth. Big but slow Cougar OL will again
have a hard time shielding Max Hall (who’s been more pick-prone TY) from DE
Jerry Hughes and the revved-up TCU pass rush that dictated matters in LY’s
32-7 Frog romp. TCU has already survived at Clemson & Air Force, and Frogs
used to winning with sr. QB Dalton (17-2 SU as starter since LY).
(08-TCU 32-Byu 7...T.29-19 T.51/240 B.28/23 B.22/42/2/274 T.12/19/0/170 T.1 B.2)
(08-TCU +1 32-7 07-BYU -7 27-22 06-Byu +5' 31-17...SR: BYU 5-3)

*Florida 37 - MISSISSIPPI STATE 10—Sure, the UF attack misses LY’s
explosiveness, but still inclined to lay lumber with road-loving Gators, who’ve
covered 9 straight SEC games away from Gainesville. Bulldogs primary
weapon RB Dixon gets stuffed by UF’s smothering front 7 (2.8 ypc, just 2
TDRs), giving extra possessions to healthier QB Tebow (accounted for 324 yds.
vs. Arkansas), who did throw downfield more frequently to TE Hernandez & WR
Cooper (combined 13 catches) last week. Teacher (Meyer) soundly beats pupil
(Mullen). CABLE TV—ESPN
(DNP...SR: Florida 32-18-2)

*HOUSTON 45 - Smu 32—Mustangs are one of C-USA’s most improved
squads under respected second-year HC June Jones. If last week’s draining
OT home loss to Navy doesn’t linger AND maturing soph QB Mitchell (no ints.
last two games) continues to avoid giveaways, SMU should be able to trade
points for a while with potent Houston.
(08-Hou. 44-SMU 38...H.30-26 H.38/131 S.23/48 H.28/37/1/404 S.29/40/2/365 H.1 S.1)
(08-Hou. -13 44-38 07-HOU. -19' 38-28 06-Hou. -3' 37-27...SR: Houston 14-9-1)

*Fresno State 39 - NEW MEXICO STATE 10—Perhaps DeWayne Walker’s
suicidal resolve to establish a ground diversion gives NMSU a chance to hang
within generous number. But Fresno getting back into bowl mix, and Ags not
likely to impede Fresno’s rampaging Ryan Matthews (nation’s leading rusher
with 162 ypg!). CABLE TV—ESPNU
(08-FSU 24-Nmsu 17...F.20-11 F.50/189 N.15/M9 N.27/38/0/192 F.14/20/0/146 F.1 N.1)
(08-FSU -16' 24-17 07-Fsu -13 30-23 06-FSU -12' 23-18...SR: Fresno State 15-0)

*LSU 21 - Auburn 17—With higher spread following back-to-back losses for
Auburn, recommend bucking overpriced LSU, on an incredulous 0-12 spread
run as SEC host. Though Auburn QB Todd (12 TDs, 2 ints.) has cooled, still
give edge to diversified Auburn attack over choppy LSU offense (19 ppg vs.
conference foes), ranked near bottom of SEC in all major categories (dead last
in sack differential). CABLE TV—ESPN2
(08-Lsu 26-AUBURN 21...L.20-16 L.38/178 A.36/70 A.17/32/2/250 L.14/29/1/220 L.0 A.0)
(08-Lsu -2' 26-21 07-LSU -10 30-24 06-AUBURN -3' 7-3...SR: LSU 23-19-1)

*Unlv 31 - NEW MEXICO 20—UNLV’s version of the spread has
demonstrated some competence at times, and Rebels at least came out
swinging last week vs. Utah. Perhaps the absence of suspended HC Mike
Locksley might actually spur winless UNM, but oddsmakers need to throw in a
date with Megan Fox before we’ll get interested in Lobos.
08-UNLV 27-N. Mex. 20...N.23-14 N.48/232 U.32/55 U.17/34/0/203 N.12/27/2/148 U.1 N.0)
(08-UNLV +5 27-20 07-UNM -11' 27-6 06-Unm -2' 39-36 (OT)...SR: New Mexico 9-7)

*SOUTHERN CAL 27 - Oregon State 15—Although SC has climbed back
into BCS title game discussion, Trojans (with only one cover in last five) cutting
it awfully close most weeks. And since oddsmakers likely to inflate number due
to SC’s revenge motivation, don’t mind giving giant-killer OSU a look. Beavs
(24-5 SU from October onward since ‘06) apparently in midst of another lateseason
uptick for Mike Riley, who jiggled the “O” in last game vs. Stanford by
going “Wildcat” with Quizz Rodgers at the controls. TV—ABC
(08-OSU 27-S. Cal 21...O.22-16 O.45/176 S.22/86 S.18/29/1/227 O.18/28/0/167 O.0 S.1)
(08-OSU +25 27-21 07-USC -16' 24-3 06-OSU +10' 33-31...SR: Southern Cal 58-10-4)

*STANFORD 29 - Arizona State 17—Farm venue should be a welcome
sight for Stanford after dropping last two on treacherous Pac-10 trail. And since
the Tree on 9-game Palo Alto win and cover streak for Jim Harbaugh, don’t mind
backing Cardinal vs. ASU bunch that continues to operate in a choppy manner
on attack with embatteld QB Sullivan (only 5 TDP in 6 starts).
(08-ASU 41-Stan. 17...A.28-17 A.36/127 S.30/113 A.27/36/1/345 S.14/31/3/120 A.1 S.0)
(08-ASU -14 41-17 07-Asu -14' 41-3 06-ASU -23' 38-3...SR: Arizona State 16-9)

*Boise State 48 - HAWAII 17—Since Chris Petersen will surely remind his
Boise troops how they lost twice (once vs. Hawaii, and then in bowl game vs.
ECU) on this field two years ago, doubt this will be a flat spot for BCS-hoping
Broncos. Hawaii Red Gun operating in lower-wattage fashion since injury to QB
Alexander (new starter Moniz not exactly the second coming of John Elway).
(08-BOISE ST. 27-Hi. 7...H.20-18 B.31/111 H.35/56 B.25/34/0/256 H.20/38/5/232 B.2 H.0)
(08-BSU -24' 27-7 07-HI. -3 39-27 06-BSU -14' 41-34...SR: Boise State 7-3)

ADDED GAMES

*Florida Atlantic 35 - LA.-LAFAYETTE 26—Since form chart holding
up so well in this year’s Sun Belt, don’t mind respecting recent trends that
support argument for FAU, which has covered last 4 vs. ULL and 11 of its last 14
on Belt road. Owls starting to convert yards into points with sr. QB R. Smith now
complemented by infantry diversion of RB Morris (104 ypg).
(08-FAU 40-La.-Laf. 29...L.26-24 L.47/228 F.33/216 F.18/28/0/307 L.24/33/3/204 F.1 L.1)
(08-FAU +1' 40-29 07-Fau -6' 39-32 (OT) 06-Ull -8' 6-0...SR: Fla. Atlantic 3-1)

*ARKANSAS STATE 31 - Florida Intl. 27—Since depressed ASU now likely
out of bowl contention and rumblings beginning to surface about HC Roberts’
future, not sure we want to lay meaningful points vs. QB McCall and capable FIU
weaponry tallying 35 ppg last three outings.
(08-FIU 22-Ark. St. 21...A.22-16 A.49/222 F.22/48 F.16/34/0/359 A.13/26/1/149 F.0 A.0)
(08-FIU +2' 22-21 07-ASU -17 27-24 06-Asu +7' 31-6...SR: Arkansas State 3-1)

TROY 45 - North Texas 20—Though UNT no longer the laughingstock of the
Sun Belt, still prefer to “lay it” with dominating Troy squad that led 42-20 before
reserves gave up 13 answered vs. FIU week ago. Trojans accomplished
triggerman Levi Brown (63%, 391 YP vs. Panthers) surgically dissects
scrambling Mean Green 2ndary with a meager 2 ints. all season.
(08-Troy 45-N. TEXAS 17...T.29-22 T.28/108 N.33/92 T.41/51/0/439 N.31/52/3/246 T.0 N.1)
(08-Troy -24 45-17 07-TROY -22' 45-7 06-TROY -10' 14-6...SR: Troy 5-1)

*KENTUCKY 29 - La.-Monroe 19—With UK coming off celebratory 21-14
upset at Auburn, don’t mind taking inflated number with surging ULM, which is
a 19-8 last 27 as a road dog. Warhawks’ improved rush “D” (6.0 ypc LY down
to 3.8 TY!) might not get bowled-over by Wildcats run-dominated attack sans
injured QB Hartline.
(06-KENTUCKY -19' 42-40...SR: Kentucky 1-0)

MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE 33 - Western Kentucky 21—MTSU spread
“guru” Tony Franklin not providing quite the elixir Blue Raiders (only 13 points
last 2) envisioned. Reluctant to lay big points vs. scrappy Tops (covers vs. Navy
& USF) and livewire QB Jakes.
(08-Mtsu 21-WKU 10...M.18-17 M.41/101 W.33/68 W.18/30/1/213 M.19/30/1/212 M.1 W.1)
(08-Mts -2' 21-10 07-Wku (NL) 20-17...SR: Middle Tennessee State 30-28-1)

LOOKING FOR AN ANGLE

Tennessee at ALABAMA...Bama has covered 3 straight in series, and Tide
HC Saban has romped in last two by an avg. 35-13 score.

Louisville at CINCINNATI...In battle for the Keg of Nails (schools just 107
miles apart), the favorite has covered 9 of the past 12 meetings.

San Diego State at COLORADO STATE...Though CSU eked out 38-34 win
at Qualcomm LY, Rams geeked after back-to-back losses vs. SDS at Fort
Collins.

Maryland at DUKE...First meeting since ‘04, but Duke eager to snap 5-game
series losing streak. Scheduling dynamics favor rested Blue Devils, coming off
bye week. Maryland playing its 8th game TY without a break.

Oklahoma at KANSAS...OU’s Heisman Trophy winner Bradford had schoolrecord
468 YP in 45-31 series victory in Norman LY. KU mentor Mangino
served as Stoops’ assistant for a couple seasons before taking over at
Lawrence in ‘02. Sooners 9-3 vs. spread off SU loss in reg.-season since 2000.

Auburn at LSU...Believe it or not, LSU is on 12-game spread losing streak vs.
SEC foes in Baton Rouge’s not so deadly “Death Valley.”

Clemson at MIAMI-FLORIDA...Homecoming of sorts for Clemson’s big-time
weapons RB Spiller (from Lake Butler, Fla.) & WR Ford (Royal Palm Beach),
who get the chance to play in front of family and friends.

Iowa at MICHIGAN STATE...Iowa has covered 6 of last 7 in series, beating
spread as 6-pt. dog in 16-13 loss at East Lansing LY.

Arkansas at OLE MISS...Rebel mentor Houston Nutt, who beat his former
employer in emotionally-charged 23-21 win in Fayetteville LY, has now taken 5
in a row in series (first 4 as Hog honcho).

Florida at MISSISSIPPI STATE...Teacher vs. pupil. MSU’s new HC Dan
Mullen served as an assistant under Urban Meyer at Bowling Green, Utah and
Florida before taking over in Starkville TY. UF on 8-game road cover streak.

Texas at MISSOURI...Mizzou eager for another chance vs. UT at Columbia
following 56-31 setback at Austin LY. In that contest, Horn QB McCoy set a
school-record with 17 straight completions (29 of 32 for 337, 2 TDs).

Iowa State at NEBRASKA...Nebraska has covered 7 of past 10 in series, and
Huskers are 12-5 vs. number on homecoming since ‘92. Pelini’s squad 8-2 vs.
spread last 10 on board (5-1 TY).

Indiana at NORTHWESTERN...Last 5 in tightly-contested series decided by
total of just 22 pts. (widest margin of 7). NW committed a season-high 5 TOs
(to none for Hoosiers) in 21-19 setback in Bloomington LY.

Boston College at NOTRE DAME...In battle between Catholic institutions,
ND is sky high to snap frustrating 6-game series losing streak. Irish’s fiery QB
Clausen has circled this one after “4-pick” performance (including one returned
for TD) in 17-0 whitewash at Chestnut Hill LY.

Kent State at OHIO...Visitor has covered 4 straight in this MAC series.

South Florida at PITT...USF eager for this trip to Pitt. Bulls were ranked in
the Top 10 with a 5-0 mark when they suffered painful 26-21 home loss vs.
Panthers LY. Visitor has covered 4 of last 6 in series.

Illinois at PURDUE...Illini continues to slide, with no covers last 8 on board.

Texas A&M at TEXAS TECH...TT has covered 6 of last 8 in series (7-1 SU).
Red Raiders cranky HC Leach gave inspirational halftime talk, as his squad
outscored A&M 23-2 in final 3- mins. of 43-25 victory in College Station LY.

Air Force at UTAH....AF has covered 7 straight as a dog in hotly-contested
series (8 of last 9 in series decided by total of 28 pts.—widest margin of 8!).

Louisiana Tech at UTAH STATE...USU on spread roll, posting 9-1 spread
mark last 10, including near upset in 45-38 loss at La Tech LY (Bulldogs scored
last 10 pts. over final 8 mins.). La Tech just 4-16 as an away dog since ‘06 (0-
3 TY), and Aggies excited to end 4-game series losing streak.

Georgia Tech at VIRGINIA...UVA 5-0-1 vs. spread last 6 in series (5-1 SU),
and Cavs have covered 5 straight vs. GT in Charlottesville. Cavs effectively
defended Yellow Jacket triple-option in come-from-behind 24-17 victory at
Atlanta LY, holding Tech to 156 YR in 41 tries.

Oregon at WASHINGTON...Revived U-Dub psyched-up to snap 5-game
losing streak vs. old rival UO. Huskies’ star QB Locker especially eager after
completing only 12 of 28 for 103 yds. in opening 44-10 defeat at Eugene LY.

BALL STATE...Starting RS frosh QB Kelly Page left in 2nd Q vs. Bowling
Green after hurting thumb on his throwing hand. Lightly-experienced sr. Tanner
Justice was just 6 of 21 for 92 yards in home loss to Falcons.

BUFFALO...Emerging jr. RB Ike Nduka, who had 303 YR in previous two
games, and No. 2 RB Brandon Thermilus both sprained an ankle early in home
win over Akron. CINCINNATI...Although at TGS press time doctors had not yet
determined whether pinpoint star sr. QB Tony Pike will need surgery, he’s likely
to be held out vs. Louisville after re-injuring his left (non-throwing) wrist at South
Florida. Less accurate but more mobile soph Zach Collaros had 132 YR
(including a 75-yard TD scamper) during road win over Bulls. COLORADO
STATE...Jr. RB Leonard Mason (team-best 511 YR) left in 1st Q at TCU with rib
injury. Sr. SS Klint Kubiak (pectoral), Rams’ leading tackler, missed blowout
loss to Frogs and is through for season, and starting jr. MLB Alex Williams
(knee) didn’t make trip to Fort Worth. EAST CAROLINA...Oft-injured top RB sr.
Dominique Lindsay left early in 2nd Q of last week’s home romp over Rice after
hurting his ankle. EASTERN MICHIGAN...Two of Eagles’ top RBs—jr. Dwayne
Priest (team-best 336 YR & 3 TDs) and soph Corey Welch—have been nursing
injuries recently. FLORIDA...A-A sr. MLB Brandon Spikes, who leads Gators in
tackles & sacks, hurt his groin in 1st Q vs. Arkansas and is questionable for this
week’s trip to Miss. State. HAWAII...Impact juco WR Rodney Bradley (18 ypc
& 5 TDs on 31 receptions) broke his leg early in 2nd Q of loss at Idaho.
HOUSTON...RS frosh OLB Kris Johnston, who was elevated to starting lineup
when sr. Matt Nicholson suffered season-ending knee injury earlier in
campaign, sustained his own season-ending knee injury in road win at Miss.
State Oct. 10. Starting RS frosh LT Jacolby Ashworth (ankle) will also miss rest
of campaign. IOWA STATE...Starting jr. QB Austen Arnaud left in 3rd Q vs.
Baylor due to bruised throwing hand, but he’s expected to be available this week
at Nebraska. Jr. RB Alexander Robinson (Big XII-best 737 YR) also left early
in 2nd half of home win over Bears after re-aggravating lingering groin injury and
is questionable for Huskers. LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE...Top RB sr. Undrea
Sails broke his leg in 2nd Q at Western Kentucky. Starting soph CB Dwight
Bentley (ankle; 3 ints.) was also hurt during 1st half of road victory over
Hilltoppers. LOUISIANA-MONROE...Starting jr. QB Trey Revell is expected to
miss about a month after breaking thumb on his throwing hand in 2nd Q of home
win over Ark. State. Starting sr. S & team captain James Truxillo hurt his knee
in 3rd Q vs. Red Wolves and is questionable for trip to Kentucky. MIAMIOHIO...
Top RB sr. Andre Bratton (toe) did not play at Ohio, jr. WR/punt returner
Eugene Harris hurt his hamstring in 2nd Q of loss to Bobcats, and sr. WR/punt
returner Dustin Woods has missed last two games with hamstring injury of his
own. MINNESOTA...Gophers were down to third-string C jr. D.J. Burris at Penn
State, as soph Trey Adams, who was promoted to starting lineup when sr. Jeff
Tow-Arnett broke his leg a few weeks ago, sat out loss to Nittany Lions with
sprained ankle. NORTH TEXAS...Starting RS frosh QB Riley Dodge left during
2nd Q vs. Florida Atlantic after hurting his ankle. Jr. Nathan Tune, who started
at Alabama earlier in campaign when Dodge was sidelined, completed 13 of 17
for 129 yards with 1 TDP during home loss to Owls. OKLAHOMA...Star jr. QB
Sam Bradford re-injured his throwing shoulder early in 1st Q vs. Texas and is
out indefinitely. SOUTH CAROLINA...Starting soph QB Stephen Garcia was
limping noticeably following loss at Alabama. True frosh RB Jarvis Giles (245
YR on 5.8 ypc) should be back in action against Vandy after serving one-game
suspension vs. Tide, but top WR sr. Moe Brown is very doubtful for
Commodores due to concussion suffered late in 1st half at Tuscaloosa.
STANFORD...Star sr. RB Toby Gerhart (869 YR & 12 TDs) turned his ankle late
in last week’s loss at Arizona. TEMPLE...True frosh RB Bernard Pierce, a
blossoming star who ran for 521 yards & 5 TDs in previous three games, left late
in 2nd Q of last week’s home win over Army after hurting his shoulder.
TOLEDO...Starting sr. QB Aaron Opelt (shoulder) didn’t play vs. Northern
Illinois, and true frosh backup QB Austin Dantin hurt his ankle in 4th Q of home
win over Huskies. UCF...Sr. QB Brett Hodges, a Wake Forest transfer who had
somewhat stabilized Golden Knights’ shaky offense, sat out 4th Q vs. Miami
after taking a hard hit. Former starter soph Rob Calabrese completed just 1 of
4 for 13 yards in home loss to Hurricanes. VIRGINIA...Starting sr. QB Jameel
Sewell sat out 4th Q at Maryland after hurting his leg, and top RB sr. Mikell
Simpson (neck/head) did not play in win over Terps. WEST
VIRGINIA...Starting sr. QB Jarrett Brown suffered concussion on first series vs.
Marshall. Touted true frosh Geno Smith was 15 of 21 for 147 yards with a TDP
in home victory over Herd. WESTERN MICHIGAN...Broncos’ top two WRs—
jrs. Nunez & White (combined 63 catches for 848 yards & 9 TDs—both sprained
ankles vs C. Michigan.

TECHNICIAN'S CORNER

FLORIDA STATE at NORTH CAROLINA (Thursday, October
22)...FSU 0-4 as chalk TY. Butch, however, just 1-3 vs. line TY,
although Heels are 9-4 as home dog since ‘04. Tech edge-slight
to UNC, based on team trends.

RUTGERS at ARMY (Friday, October 23)...Ugh! Rutgers has
won and covered last four meetings since ‘02. Schiano 14-6 line
last 20 away, and 10-4 as DD chalk since ‘06. Tech edge-
Rutgers, based on series and team trends.

UAB at MARSHALL...Note that dog side has covered in the last
4 meetings (UAB doing honors the last two). Herd 1-0 as chalk TY
but 1-4 last 5 in role. Blazers have covered 4 of last 6 as CUSA
road dog. Tech edge-UAB, based on series dog trends.

AKRON at SYRACUSE...Orange have cooled with no covers last
2 after 3 straight Ws to begin season. Marrone’s first game as
chalk, note Robinson was surprising 4-1 in role between ‘06-08.
Tech edge-slight to ‘Cuse, based on team trends.

MARYLAND at DUKE...Duke 3-1 as chalk for Cutcliffe, also 9-5
overall vs. number since he arrived LY. Ralph 5-10 vs. line away
from home since ‘07. Tech edge-Duke, based on team trends.

GEORGIA TECH at VIRGINIA...Groh has enjoyed great spread
success in series, he’s 5-0-1 vs. number last 6 meetings. Paul
Johnson, however, now 12-5 vs. number overall since moving to
GT, 7-3 as chalk that span (2-0 as visiting chalk). Tech edgeslight
to Virginia, based on series marks.

CLEMSON at MIAMI-FLORIDA...Canes have won and covered
first 2 as host TY after dropping 8 of previous 9 vs. line in role.
Clemson 12-4 as dog since ‘06, however (1-0 TY), and Dabo has
covered 7 of last 10 on board. Tech edge-slight to Clemson,
based on team trends.

ILLINOIS at PURDUE...Zook no covers last 8 on board since late
LY. Zook also no covers last 6 away. Purdue 4-2 vs. line in ‘09.
Tech edge-Purdue, based on Illini negatives.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN at BOWLING GREEN...Falcs now 3-14 vs.
line last 17 at Doyt Perry. Tech edge-CMU, based on BGSU
negatives.

INDIANA at NORTHWESTERN...Revenge for NU after shocking
21-19 loss LY. IU 2-1 vs. line away TY but extended road mark not
good (9-21 last 30 away). Fitzgerald, however, 0-3 as chalk TY
and 2-8 in role at Evanston since ‘06. Tech edge-Indiana, based
on team trends.

MINNESOTA at OHIO STATE...Buckeyes have now covered
their last 3 at Big Horseshoe after dropping 7 of previous 8 vs. line
at home. OSU also 5-1 vs. line after last 6 SU losses. Tech edgeslight
to OSU, based on team trends.

SOUTH FLORIDA at PITT...Leavitt 4-1 vs. line last 5 as dog (1-1
TY). ‘Stache just 3-9 vs. line last 12 as home chalk. Tech edgeslight
to USF, based on team trends.

UCONN at WEST VIRGINIA...Ugh! WCU has dominated, winning
and covering last 5 in series. Although UConn 3-0 vs. line away TY
and 5-0 vs. number overall. Tech edge-WVU, based on series
trends.

VANDERBILT at SOUTH CAROLINA...Dores have played these
guys pretty tough lately, winning last two as dog and 2-0-1 vs. line
last 3 trips to Williams-Brice. Vandy 15-4-1 as dog away from home
since ‘05. Tech edge-Vandy, based on team and series
trends.

IOWA STATE at NEBRASKA...Huskers have won handily last
three meetings, although road team also 3-0 vs. line in those games.
Huskers 3-0 as DD home chalk already TY. Last three also “under”
in series. Tech edge-Nebraska, based on team trends.

BALL STATE at EASTERN MICHIGAN...Something’s got to give
here. EMU no covers last 6 at Ypsilanti, and just 5-12 vs. number
last 17 on board. Tech edge-slight to Ball State, based on EMU
negatives.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS at MIAMI-OHIO...NIU 8-2 vs. line last 10 as
visitor. RedHawks 6-16 last 22 vs. line. Tech edge-NIU, based
on team trends.

OKLAHOMA STATE at BAYLOR...OSU has won and covered
big the last three seasons (wins by 42, 31, and 28 points). Tech
edge-OSU, based on series trends.

KENT STATE at OHIO...Note that road team has covered the
last 4 and 8 of last 9 in this MAC series. Both on current 4-game
cover streaks. Tech edge-slight to Kent State, based on
series road trend.

BUFFALO at WESTERN MICHIGAN...Turner Gill has dropped last
2 on road but was 10-1 vs. line previous 11 away from UB Stadium.
Bulls only 2-3 as dog TY after 7-1 mark in role LY. Cubit 4-2 last 6
as MAC home chalk. Tech edge-slight to UB, based on
extended trends.

LA TECH at UTAH STATE...USU 17-7 vs. line last 24 on board,
and Bulldogs just 1-9-1 vs. number last 11 as visitor. Tech edge-
USU, based on team trends.

BOSTON COLLEGE at NOTRE DAME...BC has won last 3 and 4
of last 5 trips to South Bend. Note that visiting team has covered 5
of last 6 in series, only non-cover was BC falling short by a hook at
South Bend in ‘07. BC, however, 0-4 SU and vs. line last 4 on road
since late LY. Charlie no covers last 4 as chalk in ‘09. Tech edge-
BC, based on series trends.

TENNESSEE at ALABAMA... Bama has won SU last 4 meetings and
is 4-0-1 vs. line last 5 in series. Vols, however, are 5-1 last 6 as road
dog. Tide 10-2 vs. spread last 12 reg.-season games. Tech edgeslight
to Bama, based on team and recent series trends.

OREGON at WASHINGTON...Ducks really dominated U-Dub
during the Ty years, and UO has now won and covered last 5 in
series. All of those wins by 20 points or more. Ducks now have
covered last 4 in ‘09. Sark 3-0 as home dog already TY, however.
Tech edge-slight to Oregon, based on series trends.

TEXAS A&M at TEXAS TECH...A&M has lost and failed to cover
last 7 at Jones Stadium since last win in ‘93. Tech 6-2 vs. line
overall last 8 in series and 12-3 vs. spread last 15 meetings.
Sherman 2-6 vs. line away from Kyle Field since LY. Tech edge-
Texas Tech, based on series trends.

PENN STATE at MICHIGAN...Shades has lost SU last 5 trips to
Ann Arbor, last win at Big House back in ‘06. Rodriguez 4-2 vs. line
TY. Tech edge-slight to Michigan, based on series trends.

OKLAHOMA at KANSAS...Mangino has failed to cover last 2 as
home dog but is 5-2 in his last 7 tries in role at Lawrence since ‘04.
Stoops just 1-4 vs. line last 5 on board since late LY. OU also just
2-4 vs. number last 6 after facing Texas. Tech edge-slight to
Kansas, based on team trends.

TEXAS at MISSOURI...Mack just 3-9 his last 12 on board and just
1-4 vs. spread his last 5 away from home. Horns have also
covered last 4 years in game following OU. Pinkel, however, just 1-
5 his last 6 as dog and just 2-7 vs. number last 9 at Columbia. Tech
edge-slight to Texas, based on team trends.

WAKE FOREST at NAVY...Teams split two meetings last season
(including bowl game in D.C.). Road team has covered last 4 reg.-
season meetings. and 4 of last 5 in series. Tech edge-slight to
Wake, based on series road and team trends.

SAN DIEGO STATE at COLORADO STATE...Since Fairchild
arrived, CSU now 7-0 vs. line at Fort Collins (Rams 8-0 in role dating
back to late ‘07). Although please note that Aztecs have actually
covered last 4 in series. Tech edge-CSU, based on Rams’
home mark.

AIR FORCE at UTAH...Force has played Utes tough, covering 4
of last 5 meetings, as well as last 6 at Salt Lake City. Falcs 6-3 vs.
line on MWC road under Calhoun. Tech edge-Air Force, based
on team and series trends.

IDAHO at NEVADA...Ugh! Rugged Vandals have covered first 7
TY and are now 10-1 vs. line last 11 on board. But Ault now 17-3
vs. line as home chalk since returning to Pack sidelines in ‘04, and
Pack 22-9 overall vs. number last 31 at home. Tech edge-slight
to Nevada, based on extended team and series trends.

UCLA at ARIZONA...Cats have won and covered last 2 and 3 of
last 4 meetings. Cats have also covered last 3 vs. Bruins in Tucson.
Mike Stoops 9-2 vs. line last 11 as Pac-10 host. Tech edge-
Arizona, based on team and series trends.

WASHINGTON STATE at CAL...Tedford still 8-1 vs. line at
Berkeley since LY, and Cal won 66-3 at Pullman LY. Cougs just 3-
7 vs. line away from home under Wulff. Tech edge-Cal, based
on team trends.

TEMPLE at TOLEDO...Ugh! Owls 12-5 vs. line since LY, Al
Golden also 6-2 as dog since LY. Tech edge-Temple, based on
recent trends.

ARKANSAS at OLE MISS...Razorbacks have won last 4 and
covered last 5 in series. Tech edge-Arkansas, based on
series trends.

LOUISVILLE at CINCINNATI...Note that the road team has
covered the last 4 and 7 of the last 8 in series. Cincy, however, 12-
5 vs. line at Nippert since ‘06. Kragthorpe just 2-6 vs. line last 8 on
road. Tech edge-slight to Cincy, based on team trends.

TULANE at SOUTHERN MISS...Bob Toledo just 1-8 vs. number
last 9 on board since late ‘08. But USM no covers last 8 as DD
Hattiesburg chalk. Tech edge-slight to Tulane, based on
extended trends.

UCF at RICE...Owls slumping, no covers last 4 or 6 of first 7 TY.
O’Leary, however, 1-6 last 7 as road chalk. Tech edge-slight to
UCF, based on recent trends.

COLORADO at KANSAS STATE...Ugh! Both kind of horseshoe.
KSU, however, has covered last 3 meetings at Manhattan and last
4 in series overall. Buffs on a surprising 3-game cover streak, and
Cats on 5-13 spread slide since late ‘07 (1-2 for Snyder TY). Tech
edge-slight to CU, based on recent trends.

IOWA at MICHIGAN STATE...Iowa has covered last 3 and 6 of
last 7 in series, although MSU won outright by 16-13 margin LY.
Hawkeyes 6-1 vs. line last 7 away from home. If Ferentz a dog note 5-
1 spread mark last 6 in role. Spartans just 9-18 last 27 vs. line at East
Lansing. Tech edge-Iowa, based on team and series trends.

TCU at BYU...TCU has covered 3 of 4 meetings since joining
MWC in ‘05, including 32-7 thumping LY at Fort Worth. Cougs
however only 4-7 vs. line last 11 at Provo. Tech edge-TCU,
based on team trends.

FLORIDA at MISSISSIPPI STATE...Dan Mullen vs. old boss
Urban Meyer. Teams haven’t met since ‘05. MSU just 7-16 vs.
spread last 23 at Starkville (almost all of that on Sly Croom’s watch).
Urban Meyer on 8-0 spread run away from Swamp. Tech edge-
Florida, based on team trends.

SMU at HOUSTON...SMU has covered the last 2 vs. UH in highscoring
affairs. UH only 4-7 as chalk under Sumlin since LY.
Mustangs have covered first 2 TY as road dog for June Jones.
Tech edge-SMU, based on team and recent series trends.

FRESNO STATE at NEW MEXICO STATE...NMSU has covered
last 3 meetings, and last 4 in series “under” as well. Fresno,
however, 3-0 vs. line away TY. NMSU 2-6 vs. line as host since
LY. Tech edge-slight to FSU, based on recent trends.

AUBURN at LSU...LSU now 1-10 vs. line last 11 at Baton Rouge,
2-13 last 15 as host. LSU also on 0-12 spread run as SEC host!
Tech edge-Auburn, based on LSU spread woes.

UNLV at NEW MEXICO...Ugh! Lobos on 1-7 spread run last 8 on
board. Rebs 2-10 as chalk under Sanford since ‘05 and 5-17 last 22
vs. number on road. Tech edge-slight to UNLV, based on
recent trends.

OREGON SATTE at SOUTHERN CAL...Revenge for Pete after
27-21 loss LY at Corvallis. Pete just 2-3 vs. line last 5 in rare
revenge roles, however. Home team has covered last 6 in series
since ‘02. Pete just 3-7 vs. line last 10 reg.-season games, just 3-3
last 6 laying DD at Coliseum. Beavs 9-4 vs. line last 13 away, 11-4
last 15 as dog. Also 25-9 after covering first game from 3rd week
forward since ‘04. Tech edge-OSU, based on team trends.

ARIZONA STATE at STANFORD...ASU dominant lately, winning
and covering last 3 by big margins vs. lesser Tree teams. But
Harbaugh has covered last 9 on Farm. Erickson just 3-7 as dog
since ‘07 (1-0 TY). Tech edge-slight to Stanford, based on
home mark.

BOISE STATE at HAWAII...Leahey has actually covered last 4 in
series but not sure UH is up to it this year after bad losses and noncovers
last 3. Broncos no covers last 3 at Aloha Stadium if counting
‘07 Hawaii Bowl. Boise still 8-2 vs. line last 10 away. Tech edge-
Boise, based on team trends.

FLORIDA ATLANTIC at UL-LAFAYETTE...FAU has covered
last 4 in series. Owls 11-3 vs. line last 14 Belt games away from
home. Tech edge-FAU, based on team and series trends.

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL at ARKANSAS STATE...FIU has
covered last 2 in series and is actually a decent 11-6 vs. line its last
17 on board. ASU only 4-11 last 15 and 6-15 last 21 on board.
Tech edge-FIU, based on team and recent series trends.

NORTH TEXAS at TROY...Troy on a nice roll, now 23-10 last 33
on board. Trojans have won and covered last 2 vs. UNT by 90-24
total score. Last three also “under” in series. Tech edge-Troy,
based on team and recent series trends.

UK-MONROE at KENTUCKY...UK now 1-6 vs. line last 7 as
favorite at Commonwealth Stadium. ULM actually 7-4 vs. line its last
11 vs. SEC. Weatherbie also 19-8 last 27 as road dog. Tech
edge-ULM, based on team trends.

WESTERN KENTUCKY at MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WKU 1-6 vs.
line against Belt teams since LY. Tech edge-slight to MTSU,
based on team trends.

SAN DIEGO at KANSAS CITY... Chiefs played Bolts tough LY,
losing by 1 point in both games but covering both. Chiefs have actually
covered 5 of last 7 meetings and 3 of last 4 at Arrowhead. Norv 1-4 as
road chalk since LY. Bolts “over” 21-8 last 29 away. Tech edge-
Chiefs and “over,” based on series and “totals” trends.

INDIANAPOLIS at ST. LOUIS...Colts have also won and covered
last 4 in ‘09, and last 3 on road. Rams now on 4-11 spread run last
15 at home. Tech edge-Colts, based on team trends.

CHICAGO at CINCINNATI...Note that dog side has covered in
Cincy’s first 6 games, and that Bengals now 2-9 their last 11 as
chalk (0-3 TY). Note Cincy “under” 10-3 last 13 as host. Tech
edge-Bears and slight to “under,” based on team and
“totals” trends.

GREEN BAY at CLEVELAND...Note that Browns actually “over”
first 2 at home TY. But Pack “over” 3-1 TY and now “over’ 21-8 last
29 on board. Pack 18-8 vs. line away since ‘06 (1-1 T). Tech
edge-slight to Pack and “over,” based on team and “totals”
trends.

MINNESOTA at PITTSBURGH...Vikings have covered first 3
away TY, now “over” 10-2 last 12 as visitor. Steel “over” 49-23
since early ‘01 at Heinz Field, Vikes “over” 5-1 TY. Favre teams 8-
3 as dog since ‘07. Tech edge-“Over” and slight to Vikes,
based on “totals” and Favre trends.

NEW ENGLAND vs. TAMPA BAY (at Wembley Stadium,
London)...Bucs 1-5 vs. line TY, 1-7 last 8 and 2-9 last 11 on board.
Tech edge-Patriots, based on extended trends.

SAN FRANCISCO at HOUSTON... Texans zig-zagging vs. line
TY (L-W-L-W-L-W) thru first 5 weeks. If Singletary a dog note that
he’s covered last 5 in role. Tech edge-49ers, especially if dog,
based on team trends.

NY JETS at OAKLAND...Raiders on 15-35-1 spread run at home
since ‘03 (2-1 TY). Jets, however, just 1-4 as road chalk since LY
(0-1 TY), and have covered just 1 of last 5 on road. Tech edgeslight
to Jets, based on Raider negatives.

BUFFALO at CAROLINA...Note Panthers “under” 20-10 their last 30 as
host. Tech edge-slight to “under,” based on “totals” trends.

NEW ORLEANS at MIAMI...Saints off quick with wins and
covers first 6 TY. Dolphins recovering from slow start with covers
last 2 at home; Sparano 2-8 vs. line prior as host. Saints “over” 18-8
since late ‘07. Sean Payton 8-1 vs. line as road chalk since ‘06. Tech
edge-Saints and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

ATLANTA at DALLAS...Surprisingly, Falcs only 4-6 as road dog
since Mike Smith took over LY. But Dallas only 2-5 vs. line last 7 on
board. Tech edge-slight to Falcons, based on team trends.

ARIZONA at NY GIANTS...Giants 12-5 as chalk since LY and 30-11
last 41 on board. Tech edge-Giants, based on team trends.

PHILADELPHIA at WASHINGTON (Monday, October 26)...Note
that dog team has covered in Skins’ first five games, and Skins 0-3 vs.
line at home and now 1-8 vs. number last 9 at FedEx Field. “Unders” 9-
2 last 11 meetings. Zorn “under” 5-1 TY and 17-4-1 since LY. Tech
edge-“Under” and Eagles, based on “totals” and team trends.

PLAYBOOK

Wednesday, October 21

Tulsa over UTEP by 6

The leading offense in the nation the last two years sent the home folks into
a frenzy with a quick strike that forced Boise State to play from behind for
the fi rst time this season. Unfortunately for the Golden Hurricane, getting
their mitts on the ball in the second half was another story as the Broncos kept
Tulsa’s defense on the fi eld for all but 2:48 of the third quarter. That inability
to sustain offensive drives (the Hurricane offense had four three-and-outs in
the second half, including in the fi nal 2:00) was simply too much for the hosts
to overcome. Now comes the hard part… picking up the pieces and putting it
all back together for a less-than-stellar UTEP squad. Tulsa, 3-15 ATS away vs. a
conference opponent off a DD loss, is 3-2 SU and ATS against the Miners in the
last fi ve series games, including a 77-35 drilling last season. UTEP is 4-1 ATS as
a dog in the series and HC Mike Price is a sexy 15-8 ATS as a HD with revenge.
In a swing game in the C-USA West Division where the Miners could pull into a
4-way tie atop the division with an upset, the number looks right on to us.

Thursday, October 22

N CAROLINA over Florida St by 2
The Living Legend is probably already getting dirty looks in the Winn-Dixie
checkout line. What next? His golf cart running out of gas? Jimbo’s Future Kids
In Tallahassee have been quite charitable on defense lately and with three road
games remaining after today, they could be headed for the worst season in
school history. Hold that thought: HC Bobby Bowden is 4-0 SU and 2-0 ATS
off three straight losses, 5-1 ATS in the favorite role after allowing 35 or more
points and he’s NEVER lost four games in a row. North Carolina is looking up
at the rest of the ACC Coastal after disheartening losses to Georgia Tech and
Virginia but HC Butch Davis is 11-0 SU and ATS at home off a win in the playfor-
no-play league vs. an opponent off a SU and ATS loss. Something has to give
but since we’re not in a giving mood, how about you make the call?

Friday, October 23

Rutgers over ARMY by 11
The Black Knights are still dreaming about going bowling for the fi rst time
since 1996 but the alley must seem 100 miles away right about now. Army just
fi nished played victim to Temple, extending the Owls’ current winning streak
to four games, their longest in 24 years. OUCH! Army fell behind 13-0 and was
fl agged 14 times for 100 yards. Did we actually mention the word ‘bowl’? Still,
the Black Knights are 6-1 ATS as dogs before Air Force and a win here gets
them a little closer postseason play. Rutgers is under the Friday night lights
for the second straight week and just might be going over the 101’s of proper
tackling technique after going jello last week versus Pitt RB Dion Lewis. The
Scarlet Ones are 6-0 ATS and 3-0 ATS away in the series and have won 13 of
16 against military outfi ts. Rutgers also owns a 6-2 ATS mark vs. non-conference
favorites of seven points or more. We’ll point our swords in another direction

Saturday, October 24

MARSHALL over Uab by 3
Hard to make a case for the Thundering Herd or the Blazers helping us score
at this party… unless we like going home empty-handed. Marshall is -21 (140-
161) on the points ledger although, in the name of fairness, they have dropped
games to Virginia Tech, East Carolina and most recently to intra-state-rival West
Virginia (not exactly a cupcake factory, eh?). But what the hell, let’s pour it
on: Marshall is a Colin Cowherd-ly 0-9 ATS off a non-conference game vs. an
opponent off a DD loss. The Herd – Marshall’s, not Colin’s – has also disappeared
the last two years in their game after West Virginia, losing to New Hampshire in
‘07 and Cincinnati in ‘08 at Huntington. The Blazers have been outscored, 153-
207, and have allowed 33 points or more three times this season. However, UAB
is 4-0 ATS and 3-1 SU as a series dog. Let’s go rescue Michelle Beadle from the
loud-mouthed Cowherd and take the points along the way.

SYRACUSE over Akron by 7
Excuse the Orange if they’re walking around campus a bit cautiously this week.
After losing two straight and with Halloween on the way, it’s starting to look
like the ghost of Greg Robinson may still be haunting the Syracuse football
program. The ‘Cuse does own wins over Maine and Northwestern this year but
they’re only 8-12 ATS in their last 20 games in the role of favorite. Akron is 4-1-1
ATS vs. the Big East, including a 45-28 victory over these guys in the Carrier
Dome last year. The Zips have dropped four in a row but this Orange outfi t
is short – very short – on pulp. Grab the points with the Zippers and adjust
carefully.

DUKE over Maryland by 3
“There’s a steal by Hurley... outlet to Laettner… inside to Hill … blocked
by Chris Wilcox…” Oh, sorry; we were shuffl ing through the all-time ACC
basketball library fi le and dreaming about hardwood. We’re probably not the
only ones, either. Maryland takes the fl oor, err fi eld, 3-1 ATS in the last four
in the series and 3-1 ATS in the last four here. The Terps are also 11-1 ATS
following back-to-back losses (fi ts here with the Turtles throwing up against
Wake Forest and Virginia). The new and improved .500 Devils are 4-9 SU and
2-11 ATS as favorites vs. an opponent coming off consecutive losses and could
go bowling with another three wins in the fi nal six. Uh oh… there’s Steve Blake
for a threeeeeeeeee!

Ga Tech over VIRGINIA by 1
Off an upset victory over Virginia Tech, the Jackets are a legit BCS attendee and
a serious threat against anybody thanks to their optional ways on the ground.
Georgia Tech is 5-0 ATS away with conference revenge and 7-1-1 ATS in Game
Eight. However, our ‘Ugly Stat of the Week’ screams that teams who upset
Virginia Tech are a woeful 1-12 ATS as a favorite against an opponent of .333
or better in the next game. ACC Coastal Division leader Virginia, 5-0 ATS in
the last fi ve in the series, including winning all at home, is 11-2 ATS as a home
dog of 7 or less points. ‘The Sweater Guy’ (Al Groh) is also 14-6 ATS as a home
dog (see, not everything about Al is a BIG negative). With good trends on both
sides, we’ll note the big role change for Tech from SU home dog winner to road
chalk. That strong smell we’re picking up could be another upset brewing.

GAME OF THE UPSET THE WEEK UPSET

Illinois over PURDUE by 6
Here’s hoping Fighting Illini HC Ron Zook hasn’t invested too heavily in real
estate in Champaign. Despite several top-notch recruiting classes, Illinois
has dropped four in a row and looks headed towards a fourth losing season
in fi ve years under the Zooker. The fact of the matter is Illinois would
have been favored in this spot if the game was being played to open the
schedule but now they’re double-digit dogs to a 2-5 squad off a monster
upset! Boiler QB Joey Elliott got a call from a former Purdue QB and then
decided to turn into... would you believe Drew Brees? Elliott burned Ohio
State for 281 passing yards and two TD passes in last week’s shocker over
the Buckeyes. Unfortunately for Boiler backers, Purdue is 1-7 ATS after
Ohio State against an opponent off a double-digit loss. The Boilermakers
don’t do well as chalk either, losing to Northwestern (-6.5) and Northern
Illinois (-12.5) as favorites this season. Illinois is 7-0 ATS as a road dog off a
SU favorite loss and may have a little more Juice than usual this week.

MIAMI FLA over Clemson by 3
Nothing like locking yourself up in a room to wash some dirty laundry.
Embarrassed by Maryland several weeks ago, Clemson got off the deck with a
complete trashing of Wake Forest and sent C.J. off to the races. The Tigers are
2-0 ATS in the series and 6-1 ATS after Wake Forest. You can also throw in a 4-1
ATS record as a dog vs. an opponent of .800 or better. Ranked No. 10 in the justreleased
BCS poll, Miami is still only 1-4 ATS at home off a non-conference and a
weak 3-10 ATS as a conference favorite, including 0-5 ATS vs. an opponent of
.500 or less under head coach Randy Shannon. Tigers look like a take here.

C Michigan over BOWLING GREEN by 4
News Bulletin: Central Michigan HC Butch Jones is already buying the tools
necessary to bolt Dan LeFevour to a chair and prevent his departure. The star QB
continues to assault the record books on his way to the Heisman show in the Big
Apple – and CMU continues to win. On a six-game winning streak, the Chips, 11-
3-1 ATS in conference games after scoring 34 points or more in their previous
outing, are averaging over 34 PPG on this season. But gaudy stats and all, the
damage has been done against lined opponents with a combined mark of just
10-24 this season. For all their offensive prowess Central Michigan allowed 497
yards to Western Michigan in an 11-point win last week and looks up to see a
very important date at Boston College. Bowling Green is 3-0 SU as a series host
and 11-4 ATS as a home dog (the Falcons are also scoring 32 PPG). The Chips had
better keep an eye on WR Freddy Barnes on the fi eld today. We will.

NORTHWESTERN over Indiana by 8
The Hoosiers took a feel-good dose of cold medicine last week (who doesn’t
wave goodbye to chest pains after playing Illinois these days?) but remember,
they hadn’t tasted a victory since opening up with wins over Eastern Kentucky,
Western Michigan and Akron way back in September. Indiana, 0-5 SU and 1-4
ATS away in the series, is an unattractive 2-18 ATS off a SU loss after a SU win
as a dog. The ‘Cats have taken advantage of a Charmin-soft schedule (lined
opponents are a combined 10-28) and need to add another victory in order to
stay on track for a trip to Don Carter’s palace, especially with Penn St, Iowa and
Wisconsin on the tab. Terrible spill in aisle No. 7... we need something softer.

OHIO ST over Minnesota by 21
Is it still a secret anywhere but Columbus or has everybody else fi gured out that
Terrell Pryor’s progress on the football fi eld is still at a baby-step level? Sorry,
Buckeye fans, but Pryor has proved to be merely human – not Superman – as
evidenced by his lackluster performance in last week’s stunning loss at Purdue.
Pryor aside, the Buckeyes are 3-0 ATS after battling the Boilers, 5-1 ATS in Game
Eight of the season and OSU Professor Tressel sports a very stylish 9-1 ATS
record off a loss vs. an opponent that is not undefeated. Minnesota may need
a map to fi nd their way back into the end zone after being blanked by Penn
State and being held to 281 total yards in a win over Purdue, a game where the
Gophers’ offense was perfectly positioned by their defense on more than one
occasion. Look for another baby step from the QB in red as the Buckeyes roll.

PITTSBURGH over South Florida by 7
It’s not always the case this time of year but apparently Jan Wannstedt hasn’t
had to stock up on the shaving cream… not yet, anyway. The Panthers have
run off three straight wins since a late rally fell short at North Carolina State
and kept them from being undefeated and ranked in the Top 10. That last
sentence is correct: a Dave Wannstedt team HAS rallied back after being faced
with some adversity. Wannstedt, 1-6 ATS as a home favorite vs. a greater than
.600 opponent, has an outside shot at surpassing last year’s 9-win total. South
Florida has started the last two seasons at 5-0 only to fi nish up 6-9 SU and
the Bulls become a ‘Bubble Burster’ off their fi rst loss of the season against
Cincinnati. We’ll ‘stache this one away today.

W VIRGINIA over UConn by 6
The Mountaineers clearly enjoy this backyard stuff. West Virginia plays its fi fth
home game of the season – with two more remaining – trying to make it 11-1
SU at home since the start of ‘08. West Virginia, 5-0 SU and ATS in the series
(each win coming in double-digits), has scored 30 or more points in fi ve of six
games this season. UConn HC Randy Edsall is 5-1 ATS as a dog of 10 points or
less vs. an opponent with a .800 or greater win percentage. The tragic loss of
CB Jasper Howard at a weekend victory celebration could amp the Huskies even
more. We’ll play this by ear for now.

S CAROLINA over Vanderbilt by 14
The clock goes tick-tock on how long it will take before the Ol’ Ball Coach strips
off his shirt and inserts himself into the lineup to replace erratic QB Stephen
Garcia. South Carolina continues to struggle on offense and it’s driving Steve
Spurrier up his visor. Harmless on offense against Alabama last week, the
Gamecocks are still 12-1 ATS as a double-digit home favorite vs. an opponent
off a double-digit loss. They’re also looking for revenge from a touchdown loss
as a 9.5-point road favorite a year ago in which SC won the statboard by 110
yards. Vanderbilt, 4-1-1 ATS as a visitor in the series and 9-1 ATS as a conference
road dog of 9 points or more, has lost three straight and eight consecutive
conference games dating back to last year. A look into our database offers a
‘stay-away-from-the-Commies’ nugget that tells us Game Eight road dogs off
three straight losses are just 68-115-4 ATS. Not very appetizing. Lay the chalk
if anything at all.

NEBRASKA over Iowa St by 21
Nebraska continues to bang heads on defense: they held a potent Texas Tech
offense to 263 yards below its total average per game last Saturday. Problem is,
the Cornhuskers’ offense hasn’t really caught up to the ‘D’ and Bo Pelini’s crew
came out on the short end of a 31-10 home loss to the Red Raiders. Nebraska,
7-1 ATS in the eight series games at home and 5-0 ATS after Texas Tech, is 9-1
ATS at home in Game Seven of the season. The Cornhuskers are also 6-1 ATS
before Baylor and 6-0 ITS this season. Key Stat of the Week: Nebraska is 21-3
ATS in SU wins off a loss vs. an opponent off a win. The Cyclones ended an
11-game conference-play losing skid against Baylor last week but their wellbalanced
offensive unit (214 RYPG and 195 PYPG) could be ready for a spill
thanks to the questionable status of QB Austen Arnaud (hand) and star RB
Alexander Robinson (groin). Our AWESOME ANGLE on page 2 offers up even
more corn.

E MICHIGAN over Ball St by 3
Which locker room smells worse right now is a toss-up. Ball State just lost again
and is STILL searching for a victory under HC Stan Parrish. Remember him? And
as incredulous as it may seem, the Cardinals are installed as road favorites in
this spot. Ball State is prime ‘Play Against’ material in this week’s SMART BOX
and can claim the dubious honor of also appearing in this week’s INCREDIBLE
STAT (see page 3 for both). Eastern Michigan is also database material: winless
home teams playing with revenge in Game Seven are a stout 16-5 ATS. Reach
for the Lysol and grab the points.

No Illinois over MIAMI OHIO by 10
The Huskies have been pretty experienced at weaving in and out of
traffi c in Dekalb. After starting 2-2 in September, Northern Illinois has
subsequently dropped two of three. NIU has been gone 4-2 SU in this
series but none of those wins came by more than 11 points (the sled dogs
are also a harmless 0-5 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games).
NIU returns home next week to continue a three-game stretch at Huskie
Stadium and a push at a second straight bowl under HC Jerry Kill. The
winless RedHawks are 3-0 ATS as double-digit home dogs but lead the
nation in turnovers with a -20 net differential this season, ending up on
the negative side in each game this year. Still, we tabbed them as a ‘Big
Ugly Dog’ last week and the ‘Hawks were true to form. Once again we go
for the kill with BUD.

Oklahoma St over Baylor by 14
Think anybody has questions for Oklahoma State HC Mike Gundy on the
maturity of these Cowboys? Winners of four straight and 11 of 13 at Boone
Pickens Stadium, Oklahoma State stands 3-0 ATS in the last three games in the
series. They are also 7-1 ATS as a double-digit conference favorite and 8-2
ATS as a conference road favorite of 3 points or more. Baylor, 0-3 ITS since
losing star QB Robert Griffi n to a knee injury, doesn’t look quite the same these
days. Worse, the Bears are 1-7 ATS in the fi rst of back-to-back home games
and 3-8 ATS at home with conference revenge. The Cowboys could already be
rehearsing for a bigger dance against Texas next week. Remember, though…
we’re talking about grown men here.

OHIO U over Kent St by 10
No matter the time of year, Bobcats HC Frank Solich apparently likes the feel of
warmth. Ohio University has dropped only two of its last nine games and those
losses came against quality teams UConn and Tennessee. The Bobbies were also
a strong 13-7-2 ATS entering this season and have continued to cash with a 4-2
ATS mark in ‘09. However, the Golden Flashes, 4-0 ATS the last four in the series,
are also on a 4-game ATS roll. Hmmm… looks like no jelly here.

W MICHIGAN over Buffalo by 3
Expectations were for lots of confetti in Kalamazoo entering 2009 off a
career year for Western Michigan fi fth-year HC Bill Cubit. But the defection
of 11 starters from last year’s squad has clearly reared its head. Western
Michigan, 1-9-1 ATS at home off a loss vs. an opponent off a win, has dropped
two of three after appearing to be on a roll with victories over Hofstra and
Miami of Ohio to bring the curtain down on September. Buffalo, 10-3 ATS
away vs. a conference opponent, including 6-0 ATS off a win, is in the same
boat as the Bulldogs after Turner’s Kids turned up the expectations-o-meter
with an 8-5 season that ended in the bowling alley. Nothing to get excited
about here.

UTAH ST over La Tech by 1
The Bulldogs should get a ticket for doing a quick reverse. USU, 0-5 ATS
as favorites after scoring 35 or more points, have added to the left side of
the ledger after opening the season with road losses at Auburn and Navy.
Warning: Louisiana Tech is 0-3 on the road this season and has been outscored
106-41 away from home. Utah State, off back-to-back three-point losses, has
averaged two wins per season the last three years. This spot could be their best
opportunity at a second ‘W’ in ‘09. The Aggies get it.

NOTRE DAME over Boston College by 4
Charlie Weis must cry himself to sleep at night going over that schedule
and having nothing to defend it with. Notre Dame, 1-7 SU and ATS after
facing USC vs. an opponent off a win, continues to have major problems
defending the pass (CHECK THE MIDDLE OF THE FIELD, BOYS!) and fi lling
gaps up front. Other than that, the Irish look just like the 85’ Bears! Now
after a down-to-the-wire loss against the Trojans, the Fighting Irish must
pick up and get ready for a Boston College team that has defeated the
Golden Ones six straight times. Boston College is 16-2 ATS as a nonconference
road dog of less than 10 points BUT the visitor is 0-6 ATS in
Eagles’ games with HC Frank Spaziani on the sidelines. The Eagles woke
up on offense against NC State last week and rolled up a school-record
264 rushing yards and fi ve TD runs from Montell Harris. Great… another
sleepless night for Charlie.

ALABAMA over Tennessee by 14
Is there such thing as a recount in the BCS? Those in charge might want
to push for one, or Alabama HC Nick Saban should start gathering signed
petitions. One of only two 7-0 teams in the land, the Crimson Tide sure
looks fi t for No. 1 after a month and a half. Just ask Houston Nutt and Steve
Spurrier. Alabama, 2-8 ATS as conference favorites of 17 or more points with
revenge, has run through and over the opposition courtesy of a physical
(AND PHAT!) offensive line opening the way for Mark Ingram and others.
Oh, and the Sabanator just also happens to have the No. 1 defense in the
land. Tennessee, 7-1 ATS in the last eight series games away, is 5-0 ATS as
a DD conference dog, a key number considering the Vols have saved faced
in league and are coming off a win over Georgia with rest. Tennessee, 7-1
ATS away with conference revenge, will step off the bus at Bryant-Denny
Stadium with the No.13 overall defense in the country. Looks like the
equipment managers will be busy painting helmets this week – especially
the one residing in Knoxville.

4* BEST BET

MICHIGAN over Penn St by 11
Quick, what’s the best thing for a little remedy after bumpy trips to
Michigan State and Iowa? If you answered a piece of Delaware State
cake then you are correct. The Wolverines took the little boys for a long
ride themselves last week and felt much better as a result. Michigan, 9-1
SU and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 series games – including FIVE WINS IN
A ROW AT THE BIG HOUSE against the Lions – will be out to avenge a
46-17 loss last season. The Wolves, 3-0 ATS as dogs off a double-digit SU
non-conference win and 5-1 ATS in Game Eight, are 4-0 SU at home this
season with both of their losses coming on the road. Penn State, off a
blanking of the Mini-Gophers, is 0-5 ATS vs. an opponent with revenge
off a SU win and 3-9 ATS vs. conference revenge. The Nits are also a notso-
great 0-6 ATS off a shutout win vs. a conference opponent. We love
coaches who work their kids really hard.

Oregon over WASHINGTON by 11
So it wasn’t the best way to display your disappointment but it apparently has
done wonders for team spirit in Eugene. The Pac-10 leading Ducks have won
fi ve straight games, including three in-conference, since swinging away at the
Smurfs in September. Oregon, 5-0 SU and ATS in the last fi ve games in this
series – with each win by 20 points or more – has allowed a combined 19 points
in its last three games. The Ducks are also 4-0 ATS before USC and 7-1 ATS with
rest. Washington has lost some of the frosting from the cake after shocking USC
and keeping Notre Dame late after school. The Huskies, 0-5 ATS after Arizona
State and 1-8 ATS before UCLA, have dropped three of four overall and with
upcoming dates against UCLA and Oregon State, are in danger of sliding off
the map. Washington is 1-7 ATS as a dog of fi ve points or more with conference
revenge and 1-6 ATS in Game Eight in addition to a smelly 0-6 ITS in the last six
contests. Stay away from this dog!

TEXAS TECH over Texas A&M by 24
Nothing like some friction to add steam to an already boiling pot by rubbing
the Aggies’ noses in it. Tech HC Mike Leach added fuel to the fi re last season
by defeating Texas A&M and questioning Mike Sherman’s handling of then-
QB Stephen McGee. Well, at least he backs up his words. The Red Raiders are
7-0 ATS in the last seven games of the series and show up as 20-plus point
home favorites off a double-digit dog appearance in their last game, a healthy
18-3 ATS proposition. And even though road dogs (Texas A&M) off a SU road
favorite loss are 14-7-1 ATS vs. a foe off a SU underdog win, we ain’t interested.
No need for Jose Feliciano here. Leach will put out the fi re he started

Oklahoma over KANSAS by 4
The combination of Todd Reesing and Mark Mangino has sent scoreboards
all over America spinning out of control the last three seasons. The Jayhawks
quarterback entered the ‘09 campaign with 7,000 passing yards and 60
touchdown passes for his career while HC Mangino draws them up in the
cafeteria. Kansas, 8-1 ATS with conference revenge, is 5-0 ATS after Colorado
and 6-1 ATS before Texas Tech. Only problem with the Jayhawks is a dripping
defense that has allowed 98 points the last three games, including 34 to Colorado
in last week’s late meltdown. Oklahoma, 3-1 ATS in the last four games of the
series, including wins of 14 or more points throughout this decade, is 4-1 ATS
on the road after Texas and 7-2 ATS with conference revenge. Sooners HC Bob
Stoops is 16-4 SU when his overall record is an even .500. The Sooners were too
sloppy last week (fi ve turnovers) to overcome the Longhorns and the re-injury
to QB Sam Bradford (shoulder) didn’t make matters any better. Dirty Sanchez?
Dirty Landry? No thanks.

Texas over MISSOURI by 10
Good Ol’ Mack and the boys can dream national championship for another
week – though a closer inspection fi nds that Texas was outstatted (311-269)
despite holding Oklahoma to -16 rushing yards on 22 carries. Problems in the
secondary for Texas, perhaps? The Longhorns, 10-0 ATS in Game Seven and
9-1 ATS after Oklahoma, have allowed 29 total rushing yards in the last four
games but don’t forget that last week’s victory was one of the ‘Inside-Out’ kind.
Missouri is 6-2 ATS as a series host and 5-1 ATS at home in Game Seven. The
last-place Tigers, looking to rebound from consecutive conference losses, are
4-0 SU at home coming off a previous home loss. Missouri won the stats but
lost the game to Oklahoma State last week. With confl icting trends pulling us
both ways, we’ll side with the homies while the Horns feel even more pressure
to live up to their clippings.

NAVY over Wake Forest by 6
Oh, life in the ACC. Rolling off two consecutive league wins, Wake Forest
arrived at Clemson 4-1 in the last fi ve games. Unfortunately for the
Demon Deacons, C.J. Spiller was on the Tigers’ team bus to the stadium
and Wake Forest fell victim to another of the speedster’s 100-yard rushing
performances. But the road doesn’t end there. Wake Forest, 0-5 SU and
ATS in the last fi ve road games, packs up for the second straight week to
face a Navy team they’ve dropped two times in a row, including in the
bowling alley last year. This also marks the fourth game in the last three
years between these two non-conference schools. Navy is 33-8 ATS with
revenge vs. an opponent off a loss, including 12-0 ATS the last 12 games.
And that’s like music to our ears.

COLORADO ST over San Diego St by 6
Where have you gone, Sonny Lubick? The unraveling Rams haven’t
wagged the index fi ngers since late September and are at -68 points in
the scoring margin during a current four-game losing skid. After a 7-win
season a year ago, the about-face has been such that Colorado State was
installed a favorite at Idaho earlier in the year and fell fl at as a pancake.
The good thing is San Diego State isn’t much better. The Aztecs are 4-0 ATS
in the last four series games, including 4-1 ATS in this spot, and have also
dropped three of four in conference. We’ll go for a short ride with the Sun
Worshippers.

UTAH over Air Force by 7
The Utes enter today’s Mountain West battle with Air Force winners in 19 of
their last 20 games on the playing fi eld. While that sounds impressive, Utah
has disappointed its backers fi nancially this season, going just 2-4 ATS. The
Falcons arrive with good numbers, going 4-1 ATS the last fi ve games in this
series and 6-0 ATS the last six games at Rice-Eccles Stadium. While there are
good numbers for both sides we prefer the running dog that has enjoyed great
success on this fi eld in the past. May the Force be with you.

NEVADA over Idaho by 17
Something’s gotta give in this battle of HOT vs. WHITE HOT. The Vandals are the
ATS darlings of the 2009 season, sporting a spotless 7-0 ATS mark. Meanwhile,
the Wolf Pack is back on track after a puzzling 0-3 SU and ATS start, gaining
more than 500 yards in each of their last three games. Considering Nevada head
coach Chris Ault’s glitzy 14-1 SU and ATS record as home chalk of 16 or less
points and the Spuds looking more and more like a potato too-long-in-themicrowave,
expect Idaho to fall to 2-11 ATS in conference games after scoring
35 or more points here today. This looks like a classic case of smashed potatoes.

ARIZONA over Ucla by 8
If this were a boxing match, it would be a pairing between sluggers that are
reeling. The Bruins are 0-3 SU, ATS and ITS in their last three contests, ruining
a 3-0 SU and ATS start to the season. Meanwhile, the Wildcats enter with wins
in two of their last three contests in which they were outpunched in both
victories, surrendering 584 yards to Stanford in last week’s 43-28 win. No need
to take this to the judges. This bout ends in a draw.

CALIFORNIA over Wash St by 34
The Bears awoke from a mid-season hibernation with last week’s 45-26 clawing
of UCLA, entering the PAC 10 win column for the fi rst time in 2009. While Cal
may have put themselves back on the bowl map, laying this kind of lumber is
not to our liking. Bear backers in the past would agree as the Boys from Berkeley
are just 1-6 ATS as favorites of 28 or more points. The Cougars were humiliated,
66-3, at home by California last season and have won the money in each of their
last four visits to Memorial Stadium, going 2-2 SU. Still, that was then and this is
now. Besides, Wazzu is like a football team with Alzheimer’s these days.

TOLEDO over Temple by 7
Al Golden’s Owls are on a course to go where no Temple team has gone before
– or a least for a very long time – as the boys from Philly are looking for their
fi rst 5-game winning streak since 1979. The problem for these Owls is two-fold.
They haven’t won two straight on the road since 1994 and they’re facing a
team who has outscored them 120-41 in the last three meetings, including a
42-17 drubbing in 2005 as 26-point dogs. With all systems go for star Toledo QB
Aaron Opelt, and Temple’s top RB, Bernard Pierce, doubtful for this one, we’ll
soar with the Rockets this evening in the Glass Bowl.

OLE MISS over Arkansas by 6
Arkansas has gone hog wild in this series, winning four of the last fi ve SU and
all fi ve on the ATS scorecard, but how much does Petrino’s crew have left after
that heart-breaking loss in Gainesville? They have never fared well after facing
the Gators, posting a putrid 1-5 ATS mark, and we wouldn’t fault them this
afternoon for showing up in Oxford a little fl at. The Bulldogs are coming off a
48-13 shellacking of outmanned UAB and are a profi table 8-2 ATS after scoring
35 or more points but we’re still not sure disappointing QB Jevan Snead and the
Ole Miss offense, averaging just 12 PPG in SEC play, could go toe-to-toe with
the potent Razorbacks. We’ll learn more after this one.

CINCINNATI over Louisville by 13
It looks like it’s Bearcat hunting season in the East as Brian Kelly’s 5th-ranked
BCS club has some large stripes on their backs. The Cardinals get fi rst crack to
tame the ‘Cats and it’s been happy hunting in the Queen City for the visitors
as they have won and covered the last fi ve on this fi eld. In fact, the series
host is a woeful 1-7 ATS the last eight gatherings. With Cincy just 1-4 ATS as
conference favorites of 13 or more points and star QB Tony Pike questionable
(non-throwing arm injury) after recovering from surgery, we’ll look for the
Cardinals to once again hit the Bullseye in Nippert Stadium.

SOUTHERN MISS over Tulane by 17
Expect the injury-riddled Golden Eagles to keep the wings clipped tonight in
Hattiesburg as they eye a showdown with Houston up next. They have dropped
four of the last fi ve ‘In The Stats’ and have been anything but golden as doubledigit
home favorites versus an opponent off a SU and ATS loss, posting a fl ightless
0-8 ATS mark. With the series visitor a profi table 4-0 ATS the last four
meetings, we’ll ride the Wave and grab the points.

C Florida over RICE by 16
One couldn’t blame the Knights for coming up fl at in this spot today, especially
after tackling big-brother Miami at home last week. However, the SMART BOX
proves to be the perfect pick-me-up for UCF. Sure, the Owls own a sterling
home dog log (20-2-2 ATS in conference play) and the Knights are just 1-8 ATS
laying points on the conference road, but when the Sagacious Square speaks,
we listen! There’s no sugar-coating the Krispies this season. They are barefoot
and can’t play.

KANSAS ST over Colorado by 7
When is it time for the next Bill Snyder pay bump? Oh, didn’t he just get one?
The legendary one is on his way to a second bust in Manhattan at this rate.
Kansas State, 16-6 ATS at home off a double-digit ATS win vs. an opponent
off a win, has already blown past last year’s win total at 4-3 overall. And with
the Wildcats winning three of their last four games, they’re a serious bet to
match previous HC Ron Prince’s high of seven victories in 2006. Colorado, 1-15
SU and 5-10-1 ATS in its last 16 as a road dog, appears to have solved a QB
dilemma – at least for now – but Daddy Hawkins benching his QB son made for
an uncomfortable dinner table, despite last week’s upset win over Kansas. The
Buffs are 1-5 ITS this season and lost the statsheet by 100 yards Saturday vs. KU.
In Bill We Trust.

MICHIGAN ST over Iowa by 3
Welcome to the land of discomfort, Kirk Ferentz. Another of the 7-0 club
members, the Hawkeyes have already knocked off Penn State and Wisconsin in
sleeping bag fashion. Sporting a 3-7 SU road record entering this season, Iowa
has turned the tide with four straight victories away from home in ‘09 and
shoots for a second consecutive road win in this spot. The Hawkeyes are 6-1
ATS in the last seven series games and 9-2 ATS in the second of back-to-back
road games. Iowa adds a 4-1 ATS away record with conference revenge and 8-2
ATS as a road favorite of four or more points. Sparty rolls in on a three-game
win streak, stands 6-2 ATS at home with conference revenge and Michigan
State HC Mark Dantonio is 10-3-1 ATS as a dog of seven points or less. Another
one of those ‘good arguments on both sides’ affairs but we’ll side with the
Spartans as the pressure gets turned up a notch on the Hawkeyes.

BYU over Tcu by 3
All is well in the land of heights after the Seminoles forced the Cougars into
their skates way back in September. BYU, 20-1 SU at home the last three-plus
seasons, including 13-0 in the Mountain West Conference, is 2-2 SU against the
Horned Frogs in the last four head-to-head tilts and 3-0 ATS after San Diego
State. The Cougars are 9-3 ATS with conference revenge and have gained
a season-high in yards against four of their last seven opponents. TCU is 1-4
ATS as a conference road favorite of nine or less points and 3-9 ATS away
vs. conference revenge. The unblemished Horned Frogs have held their last
four opponents to 17 points or less and have surrendered season-low yardage
against three of six foes this season. Bottom line is the Mormons don’t lose very
often when eating at the ‘Y’.

5* BEST BET

USC over Oregon St by 31

Auburn over LSU by 7
Roaring animals of the same kind go at it in a cat fi ght in Baton Rouge.
Auburn, 3-1 ATS in the last four games in the series and 5-0 ATS after
Kentucky, showed little punch in being upset by the Wildcats in a
classic ‘Bubble Burster’ role last week. This week, though, Auburn is a
‘Mission Dog’ (see Marc’s DON’T ASK ME WHY article in Issue 6 of this
year’s PLAYBOOK Football Newsletter for a bit more info.) On the other
side of the coin, LSU, 0-12 ATS as a conference home favorite of 25 points
or less points and 1-6 ATS after hosting Florida, is a ‘Bubble Burster’
this week. In addition, the Bengals are 1-6 ATS in the second of back-toback
home games. The kicker: HC Les Miles is 1-13-1 ATS as a conference
home favorite with the Tigers. We have a thing for Tigers from Alabama.
You should, too.

5* BEST BET

USC over Oregon St by 31
Beavers HC Mike Riley could do the smart thing and warn his team
that an earthquake is quickly approaching. Or something close to it.
Southern Cal, 3-0 ATS in the last three series games at home, is 9-2 ATS
as double-digit favorites with conference revenge and 4-1 ATS before
Oregon. The only negative: USC is 0-5 ATS after playing Notre Dame but
there’s a strong feeling – courtesy of PLAYBOOK.com – that the Trojans
will be nice and loose all night long. USC is looking to avenge one of
three road losses since 2007 and HC Pete Carroll is the answer to this
week’s TRIVIA TEASER (See Page 2). The Beavers, 24-point home dogs
in last year’s sneak attack on the Trojans, are 0-4 ATS after Stanford and
a mind-boggling 1-17 ATS in SU losses against opponents with revenge.
Payback is a bitch…

Florida over MISSISSIPPI ST by 17
The poll that really matters says the Gators are No. 1. Are they really? Despite
owning the nation’s longest winning streak in the nation (16) and not having
lost since late September last year, Florida just doesn’t appear to have their
heads on straight. Not having Percy Harvin or Louis Murphy around has
handcuffed the Gators’ passing attack and had an obvious effect on their
Golden Child QB. Thank God for that defense! Florida, 1-5-1 ATS off a SU win
and 1-4 ATS as a favorite of 24 or more points before Georgia, is also just 2-7
ATS as a conference road favorite of 12 or more points off a SU win. And
perhaps Urban Meyer wants to stop circulation of the USA Today on campus as
sports columnist Mike LoPresti notes that of the Top Six teams in the country
heading into last week, two lost (Va Tech and Ohio State), two escaped by a
FG (Florida and Texas), two won by a TD (USC and Boise State) and the lone
runaway winner (Alabama) put their opponent to sleep later than sooner. And
shockingly the Gators are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four visits to Davis Wade
Stadium with the last win coming in 1985. Mississippi State is 4-0 ATS off a
non-conference road game and the Bulldogs should be jumping for the sky at
home with former Florida OC Dan Mullen watching over the sidelines. And the
Gators? G ators? They just don’t look the part right now. Be careful here.

HOUSTON over Smu by 14
Some things in life come at a heavy price. Just ask the athletic brass at SMU. The
suits and white collars reached into their pockets and convinced June Jones that
coming to work in cowboy boots is a lot more fashionable than showing up at
the offi ce in a Hawaiian shirt. Well at $2 million per season Jones has delivered
all of four wins in 18 games, including tight escapes against Stephen F. Austin,
UAB and East Carolina. Hey, nobody said this was going to come cheap! The
Mustangs, 4-1 ATS in the last fi ve series games, including 3-0 ATS here, have
been part of some juicy chalk-talk with the dog 5-0 ATS in SMU games this year.
Houston, with a league-high 245 points and averaging 40.8 PPG, is 5-16 ATS
as a double-digit home favorite. Must we send out another warning? Here’s
a nother disdainful homecoming double-digit favorite.

Fresno St over NEW MEXICO ST by 20
Bulldogs HC Pat Hill might want to kiss his wife a little longer. Fresno State is
on the road for the fourth time this season and third in the last four weeks. The
Dogs are 0-3 ATS in the last three games of this series with no win coming by
more than seven points and are just 5-22-1 ATS as a favorite since 2005. The
Aggies have already cashed at the window against New Mexico and Utah State
as SU double-digit dogs this season so rest assured they will have plenty of bark
as a homecoming puppy. And no way are we going to lay four touchdowns on
the road. Take the points or leave it alone.

NEW MEXICO over Unlv by 1
The losing streak is rising in Albuquerque and the Lobos are doing everything
possible to fi ght out of it. New Mexico, 10-1 ATS in Game Seven and outstatted
380-258 in a seven-point loss as six-point road favorites last year at UNLV, is
winless the last 10 times out and will have to snap the skid without HC Mike
Locksley, who was suspended by the school for punching out an assistant. The
Runnin’ Rebels are 2-11 ATS in the fi rst of back-to-back road games and 0-9
ATS as favorites vs. 333 opposition or less. Major concern is how wild will the
Rebels run for soon-to-be unemployed HC Mike Sanford. The Lobos, by a jab.

STANFORD over Arizona St by 3
Outside of Los Angeles, a dominating defense and the Pac 10 are about as
odd as Brad Pitt and Roseanne Barr walking hand-in-hand down Beverly Hills.
But times are changing with the rise of a Sun Devils defense that leads the
conference in virtually every defensive category. Arizona State, 3-0 SU and ATS
in the last three in the series – with every win coming by 24 points or more – has
been favored in the last seven games, including the previous fi ve as double-digit
woodlayers. The Sun Devils are 5-1 ITS this season and whipped up on Stanford
41-3 as 14.5 road favorites in 2007. Locked out of the bowling alley since 2001,
Stanford is 0-2 SU and ATS in its last two games after knocking off conference
darlings Washington and UCLA earlier. Give us a piece of this puppy.

Boise St over HAWAII by 20
Anybody ever think the Smurfs would be this popular in 2009? The Blue Turf
bullies are No. 4 in the BCS poll after surviving at Tulsa last week and gaining
respect with each passing game. The Broncos, 5-0 ATS on Saturday after a
weekday contest and 6-1 ATS before San Jose State, have won 28 of 30 regular
season games since 2007 and are 4-1 SU against Hawaii in the last fi ve in the
series. Boise State is also 6-1-1 ATS off a SU win but ATS defeat, 8-2-1 ATS in the
second of back-to-back road games and 7-2 ATS in Game Seven. However, the
Broncos are 2-5 ATS as double-digit conference favorites and the pressure of
moving the way of the Jeffersons might be a little too much to overcome. The
Rainbows are 4-0 ATS the last four in the series and 4-1 ATS with conference
revenge. Shuffl e the deck and pull out another.

ADDED GAMES

Fla Atlantic over LA-LAFAYETTE by 3
The Owls were on the verge of extinction last week in Texas when Superman
came to the rescue. QB Rusty Smith threw for 309 yards and three touchdowns
in addition to a 17-yard scoring run to help FAU rally to their fi rst victory
despite a dreadful defensive showing. The Owls, 4-0 ATS in the series, could be
ready to make a move. Cajuns star RB Undrea Sails is out with a broken leg and
top CB Dwight Bentley is out with sprained ankle. The Ragin’ Cajuns are 2-10
ATS as conference favorites of four or less points. Wash away the homecoming
favorite in this spot.

ARKANSAS ST over Florida Int’l by 10
Remember that Lysol can we pulled out earlier? We might need a whole box to
get rid of the stench here. The Red Wolves haven’t walked off the fi eld wagging
their index fi ngers since defeating Jerry’s Kids in the opener and enter here as
double-digit favorites. The Golden Panthers are walking around wounded (see
below) and have a mountain to climb to match last year’s win total. Again, can’t
p ossibly lay double digits with a homecoming favorite.

TROY over North Texas by 13
The Trojans promised to be physical and rough against Florida International in
Miami last week. Well by the time Troy left town, they had totaled 565 yards of
offense, 174 of those on the ground, knocked out half of the Golden Panthers
starting secondary and a wide receiver, and extended their longest winning
streak since 2007 to four games. After starting the season 0-2 SU and ATS,
Troy is one of three conference unbeatens. North Texas has lost fi ve straight
games after beating lowly Ball State in the opener. But if you have been paying
attention, laying double digits with a homecoming favorite is taboo around
h ere. Take ‘em or leave ‘em.

KENTUCKY over La-Monroe by 10
Kentucky may still having some catching up to do in the Supermen Elite
Conference to be considered one of the big boys. Still, the Wildcats have
proved to be resilient and steady under seventh-year HC Rich Brooks. The
middle-of-the-pack ‘Cats have won 27 games since 2006 and gone bowling the
last three years. More recent proof is last week’s off-the-deck upset win over
Auburn as a double-digit dog a week after falling to South Carolina on a failed
two-point conversion. The Wildcats, in the middle of an SEC sandwich, are 0-9
ATS at home off conference game vs. an opponent with a greater than .400
win percentage with revenge. The Sun Belt Conference-leading Warhawks,
who lost a 42-40 nail-biter to Kentucky in 2006, step out of league to begin a
three-game stretch away from home. ‘Cats laying double-digits after an upset
w in taking a couple handfuls of chalk… we’ll dust off somewhere else.

MID TENN ST over W Kentucky by 13
The Blue Raiders should take a fi eld trip with us. At the very worst, we might
end up in the end zone. Middle Tennessee was intercepted four times last
week, held to two FGs and managed just 42 rushing yards in a very nonoffensive
performance at home against Mississippi State. Middle Tennessee
State is 1-5 ITS this season. Surprisingly, Western Kentucky is 2-0 SU in the
series, including a 20-17 road win over the Blue Raiders in 2007. Repeat after
us. No way we’re laying doubles with a HOMECOMING favorite.

San Diego over KANSAS CITY by 1
Like last year, the Chargers once again fi nd themselves in a big division hole
trailing Denver by three games in the loss column. But unlike last year, Josh
McDaniel’s much-improved Broncos are showing no signs of slipping. And it
doesn’t look like things will be getting any easier for Norv’s underachieving
bunch as they travel to KC on short rest to take on a Chiefs’ squad coming off
their fi rst win of the season – and looking to avenge a pair of 1-point losses
at the hands of these same Chargers last season. They have the full support
of our PLAYBOOK.com database as it notes that ‘Ugly Pigs’ off their fi rst
win of the season are 18-9 ATS as division dogs in their next game. Let’s not
forget that the Chiefs are also a perfect 4-0 ATS as home dogs off a SU dog
win and a powerful 14-1 ATS as .500 or less division dogs off a non-division
game. With the Chargers a paltry 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS after battling the
Broncos and just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 visits to Arrowhead, an outright
ambush would come as no surprise. Love those home dogs.

4* BEST BET

San Francisco over HOUSTON by 7
You can bet Mike Singletary is eager to make amends for that
embarrassing 35-point home loss his Niners suffered to Atlanta two week
ago. He has had plenty of time to stew and our powerful database tells
us that stewing usually pays off as rested dogs off a loss of more than 30
points are 7-3-1 ATS, including a stress-free 4-0-1 ATS away. Where else
can you fi nd this stuff? That stat also ties in nicely with Houston’s 1-5
ATS mark versus non-conference opponents off a double-digit SU loss.
Following their upset win in Cincy last week, the Texans are once again at
the .500 mark for the 3rd time this season but Gary Kubiak’s crew has not
enjoyed the fruits of their labor. They’re an oil-leaking 0-10 ATS when
they are .500 or greater taking on opponents off a SU loss, including
0-2 this year. They’re also a winless 0-5 ATS as home favorites versus an
opponent off a road game. With San Fran 4-0 ATS off a SU favorite loss,
expect Singletary to keeps his pants on and enjoy the best night of sleep
he’s had in weeks

5* BEST BET

CAROLINA over Buffalo by 17
Slowly but surely you get the sense the Panthers are making their way
back. And before they get there, we’ll jump in and ride them while the
value is still there. The perfect fodder arrives this week in the person of
the Bills, fresh off their OT win over the Jets – a game in which they were
outyarded by over 100 yards. Not only is Buffalo 0-7 ATS as a road dog in
games off a double-digit ATS division win, our PLAYBOOK.com database
sends this nugget our way: non-division road dogs, off a SU division road
dog win, are 19-39-1 ATS when playing off one win exact. Couple that
with Carolina’s 7-0 ATS mark off a division game when taking on sub
.500 opposition and we have the makings of a bunch of Bills that don’t
fi gure to get paid this week. Panthers stay on the prowl.

3* BEST BET

PITTSBURGH over Minnesota by 13
Through six games, Mike Tomlin’s defense has certainly not looked like
the dominating bunch that we have grown accustomed to watching.
The Steel Curtain is allowing 5 PPG more than last season and that, along
with a turnover bug, are big reasons why they have rewarded their
backers with just one ATS win this season. That’s also the reason why
we are getting tremendous line value with the defending Super Bowl
champs as they have been installed as a very reasonable 4-point home
favorite. All of which sets up this dominating scenario that only our
database could unravel: since 1986, defending Super Bowl champions
off back-to-back SU wins and no covers are 9-3-1 ATS including 4-0 ATS
if not favored by more than 7 points! Unlike the Steelers, the Vikings are
a money-making 4-2 on the ATS scorecard but they have lost the stats
battle in each of their last three games thanks to a defense that has
been torched for 400 or more yards in all of those contests. Favre and
company have been living on borrowed time and their 0-6 ATS Game
Seven log along with Pitt’s 8-1 ATS mark in the 2nd of back-to-back
home games versus non division opponents clearly says it’s pay-back
time – and we’re collecting.

NY Jets over OAKLAND by 10
Welcome to the NFL, Mark Sanchez. All it took was some fi lm study for
tendencies and a turn of luck the other way and, just like that, he’s no longer
the new Joe Namath on Broadway. Six interceptions did the heavily favored
Jets in last week while on the fl ip side the Raiders were busy upending the
Eagles as 14-point underdogs. FYI: The eleven teams that won SU as 14-point or
larger dogs since went 2-8-1 ATS in their next game, including 0-5-1 ATS when
facing a non-division opponent. Sure, the Jets bring some pretty lousy numbers
into this fray (0-7 ATS as non-division favorites of more than three points; 0-4
ATS when favored off a SU favorite loss, etc.) but the fact of the matter is
the Raiders are 2-9 ATS in games off a SU underdog win facing an opponent
off back-to-back losses. He might not be ‘Broadway’ just yet but we’re betting
‘X-Marks’ the spot here today.

New England over Tampa Bay by 10
We guess rumors of the demise of Tom Brady and the New England offense
have been greatly exaggerated. Five TD passes and 300 yards – not a bad
game. How about in one quarter… in the snow! Are you kidding? The
Pats took out fi ve weeks of frustration in one half resulting in the largest
margin of victory in the NFL in 42 years. They now take their show on
the road to Wembley Stadium in London where the previous two games
played resulted in close encounters. The Saints beat the Chargers last year
in a shootout, 37-32, and the Giants defeated Miami, 13-10, in 2007 as
double-digit chalk. While the British betting parlors are expecting a bloody
win from Belichick’s boys, our database tells us this might be closer than
expected as Brady and company are just 1-8 ATS their last 9 as double-digit
favorites including 0-5 ATS off a double-digit SU win. Blimey, the winless
Bucs get the cover!

Indianapolis over ST. LOUIS by 10
One of eight non-conference matchups on this Week 7 NFL schedule fi nds
the AFC with the clear upper hand as the unbeaten Colts travel to St. Louis
to toy with the winless Rams. Peyton Manning spent part of his of Bye
Week at the Red River Rivalry and he could probably send Landry Jones in
his place to get the job done against these ‘Ugly Pig’ hosts. While it’s hard
to fade the streaking visitors, the week of rest may have done more harm
than good from a momentum standpoint and we can’t see them getting
up for a bunch of lambs that were dominated ‘In The Stats’ in their OT
loss at Jacksonville. Peyton’s crew hasn’t performed well off a Bye versus
an opponent with revenge, producing just a 1-4 ATS mark and they are
a winless 0-5 ATS in games preceding the Titans. In their only trip to St.
Louis (Manning’s 4th season as a pro) the Colts were throttled 42-17 in
2001 as… get this… 12.5 point dogs! Now it’s the hosts who are getting
the big number with an even bigger odor. If you must, do it with clothes
pin in hand.

Chicago over CINCINNATI by 3
This is our type of game. Though the Bears let one get away Sunday night
in Atlanta, they dominated the well-balanced Falcons ‘In The Stats’ to the
tune of 373-253, and arrive in Cincy as dogs with the better defense. Hmm,
dogs with the better “D” – now you’ve got our attention. There was no 4thquarter
magic for the Bengals in last week’s home loss to the Texans and the
Cardiac Cats may have lost one of their lives as NFL sack leader, DE Antwan
Odom, was carted off the fi eld with a season-ending Achilles injury. It looks
like it’s back to reality for Marvin’s group and the reality of it is they are a
‘purr-fect’ 0-5 ATS in Game Seven of the season and a kitten-like 1-5 ATS
before facing the Ravens. Meanwhile, the Bears are a solid 4-1 ATS in the
2nd of back-to-back road games when allowing less than 35 points in the
fi rst one. No crowd surfi ng once again this week for Ochocinco as HC Marvin
Lewis drops to 1-8 ATS at home versus a .500 or greater opponent when he
owns a .500 or greater record. Da Bears!

Green Bay over CLEVELAND by 7
It looks like the visiting Packers will chalk up one for the NFC side as they
take on an inept Cleveland squad that couldn’t fi nd the end zone if they
put Miss Marple in charge. If the Pack stop-unit thought they had it easy
against a Lions team that was missing QB Matthew Stafford and WR Calvin
Johnson, wait until they get a load of this group. Outside of Josh Cribbs, the
Browns only excitement is when K Billy Cundiff steps onto the fi eld as the
offense has been held to 200 yards or less in four of six games this season.
The Packers have been money on the road when tackling a non-division
opponent off a SU loss, posting a brilliant 6-0 ATS log. They have also fared
well in games before hooking up with Vikings checking in with a solid 7-1
ATS mark, including 1-0 this year. However our PLAYBOOK.com database
checks in with this little ditty: Game Six .600 teams off one-win exact are 12-
25-2 ATS, including a pathetic 1-12-2 ATS off a double-digit win. With the
bumbling Brownies just 1-8 ATS in October off a SU loss versus an opponent
off a double-digit SU win, we’ll just sit back and watch this one. Or maybe
just catch the lowlights on Primetime

MIAMI over New Orleans by 1
In baseball parlance, the Saints tossed a no-hitter last week. Better yet, they
hit the ball out of the park in their 48-27 win over the Giants in a battle of
unbeatens. Bourbon Street’s reward this week is to journey to South Beach to
take on the well-rested Dolphins. Not only does Marc’s ENOUGH IS ENOUGH
article on page 2 come calling, so does the fact that AFC dogs off a Bye Week
versus an NFC foe off a win are 12-4-1 ATS, including 7-0 ATS when taking 6 or
more points. Not to say the Saints’ waistline is growing with each passing week,
but they were last seen celebrating Sunday’s victory devouring a Vegas-style
buffet. Don’t look now but Miami is about to steal home.

DALLAS over Atlanta by 10
Rest can be a good thing for most teams. For the Cowboys it’s proven to be
a treasure. That’s confi rmed by Dallas’ 16-5 SU and 14-7 ATS mark in games
off a Bye Week, including 5-0 SU and ATS the last fi ve years and 8-0 SU and
ATS when playing off a win of six or more points. They are also 5-0 ATS as
home chalk of less than 10 points when taking on a non-division opponent
they defeated in their most recent meeting. Meanwhile, the Falcons check in
sporting a putrid 0-10 SU and ATS mark in games off back-to-back SU and ATS
wins. No abacus needed here. The numbers speak for themselves.

NY GIANTS over Arizona by 11
After making a living crushing teams on the highway, the G-Men were last seen
hitchhiking home from New Orleans after missing their fl ight last Sunday. (That,
or they were in no hurry to get back home after the thumping they received.)
They host the defending Super Bowl losers Sunday night knowing they are 9-1
ATS in games against the NFC West, which ties nicely into the Cardinals’ 1-7
ATS mark on the AFC East road. ‘Zona has had its problems during October
when playing off a win against opponents off a loss, going 2-12 ATS this time
of the season. That being said, it’s two thumbs up for the Giants as they get
their groove back at the expense of the Red Birds here tonight.

Monday, October 26

Philadelphia over WASHINGTON by 10
We know a lot about Andy Reid and if there are roles in which Reid shines,
it’s here. For openers Andy is dandy on the division road when playing with
revenge, going 13-3 ATS, including 8-0 ATS when he is off a loss. In addition,
Reid is 8-2 ATS in his career on the Monday night road, including 5-0 ATS in
division games. Washington has been skinned at home on Mondays, going 0-7
SU and ATS of late. With the Redskins having made the mistake of beating the
Eagles twice last year they fi gure to pay the price this season. Oh yeah… after
starting his career 4-1 SU and ATS in his fi rst fi ve games with Washington last
season, Skins’ HC Jim Zorn is just 6-11 SU and 4-11-2 ATS since, including 1-8
ATS at home. It’s no wonder Dan the Man is texting FJZ to any and all friends.