LOGICAL APPROACH
COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: BYU + 2 over Tcu - TCU is unbeaten and thinking BCS Bowl as they face their toughest test to date. TCU did win a hard fought 14-10 game at Clemson in a game between unfamiliar foes. Now they are battling for first place in the Mountain West and BYU has already been tested with their opening win over Oklahoma. Of course a few weeks later they lost badly to overrated Florida State. BYU has the better offense with TCU having the better defense. But BYU's defense is also pretty solid as is the TCU offense. This is revenge for BYU whose unbeaten season last year was ended at TCU in a one sided 32-7 loss. BYU now has a chance to turn the tables. Experienced QB Hall and RB Unga give the Cougars excellent balance and Provo has always been a hostile environment for visitors. These teams have split 4 meetings since TCU joined the MWC in 2005. The spot sets up well for the host. BYU wins 27-20.
Other Featured College Selections
Oregon - 8 over WASHINGTON - Oregon has reeled off 5 straight wins since their opening loss at still unbeaten Boise State. The last 3 have been by double digits including a road win at UCLA just before last week's Bye. Oregon's offense is primarily run oriented and Washington allows 5.1 yards per rush. The Husky defense also ranks # 100 against the pass. In fact the Washington defense overall ranks # 106 while the Oregon 'D' is # 15. It's clear that Washington is a much improved team and QB Locker is an NFL prospect. This series has been one sided in recent seasons with Oregon winning the last 5 by margins of 34, 24, 20. 24 and 25 points. That's too much of a gap to make up in just one season under a first year coach and while the gap has narrowed, Oregon is still the better program. The price is reasonable for an Oregon team that has designs on the Pac 10 title and a home game next week with USC. This would often be a look ahead spot for Oregon but the difference in the two defenses greatly reduces that possibility. Oregon wins 38-21.
NEVADA - 13 ½ over Idaho - This has been a dream season for Idaho which became Bowl eligible with last week's win over Hawaii. The program's only Bowl appearance was the 1998 Humanitarian Bowl so this is an exciting time for the Vandals and their fans. This will be their toughest test to date as Nevada is also unbeaten in WAC play and has been tested by Notre Dame and Missouri. The Wolfpack have long had a bully mentality at home and have dominated this series. Nevada has won all 4 meetings as WAC rivals by margins of 48, 38, 16 and 35 points the past 4 seasons. True, this is a much improved Idaho team and the Vandals are a perfect 7-0 ATS and that streak will ultimately end. Idaho will face the nation's top rushing attack, averaging 293 ypg. Nevada can also throw the ball. Both teams have weak pass defenses so this game could produce the week's highest total points. It's easy to understand why there will be support for Idaho given their great ATS record. But there could be a letdown after becoming Bowl eligible and Nevada is a very focused team after their rough start when stepping up in class. Nevada's ground game is decisive. Nevada wins 51-30.
MICHIGAN STATE + 1 over Iowa - They are not flashy on offense or have a dominating defense but Iowa just continues to win. The Hawkeyes have won 11 straight dating back to last season as they continue to climb in the polls and have taken control of the Big 10 race as its lone unbeaten team. Michigan State is one of a trio of teams with one conference loss. After an opening conference loss at Wisconsin the Spartans are playing with confidence after 3 straight Big 10 wins. MSU has the clearly better offense but also compares favorably with Iowa in many defensive stats which might surprise many. Example: State allows just 3.0 yards per rush (Iowa 3.9). Iowa's had several narrow escapes this season en route to 7-0. This has been one of the more pronounced homer series as the home team's won 9 straight. All good things must end and this week Iowa's ascension in the rankings is halted by a similarly well coached team. Michigan State wins 23-17.
Best of the Rest (Opinions)
UTEP + 8 over Tulsa (Wed)
NORTH CAROLINA - 2 ½ over Florida St (Thur)
Central Michigan - 7 over BOWLING GREEN
NORTHWESTERN - 4 ½ over Indiana
South Florida + 7 over PITTSBURGH
NEBRASKA - 18 over Iowa State
Ball State - 3 over EASTERN MICHIGAN
WESTERN MICHIGAN - 5 over Buffalo
UTAH STATE + 1 ½ over Louisiana Tech
ALABAMA - 16 over Tennessee
MICHIGAN + 5 over Penn State
Wake Forest + 3 over NAVY
CALIFORNIA - 36 over Washington State
TOLEDO - 3 over Temple
Arkansas + 5 over MISSISSIPPI
SOUTHERN MISS - 21 over Tulane
KANSAS STATE - 4 over Colorado
LSU - 7 ½ over AUBURN
NEW MEXICO + 3 over Unlv
USC - 21 over Oregon State
ARKANSAS ST - 11 over Florida International
KENTUCKY - 17 over UL Monroe
The Rest (Leans)
Rutgers - 10 over ARMY (Fri)
MARSHALL - 7 over Uab
SYRACUSE - 10 over Akron
Maryland + 5 over DUKE
VIRGINIA + 4 over Georgia Tech
Clemson + 6 ½ over MIAMI FLA
PURDUE - 10 over Illinois
OHIO STATE - 18 over Minnesota
WEST VIRGINIA - 7 over Connecticut
Vanderbilt + 13 over SOUTH CAROLINA
Northern Illinois - 10 over MIAMI OHIO
Oklahoma State - 10 over BAYLOR
OHIO U - 10 over Kent State
Boston College + 8 over NOTRE DAME
TEXAS TECH - 21 over Texas A&M
Oklahoma - 8 over KANSAS
Texas - 13 ½ over MISSOURI
San Diego State + 8 ½ over COLORADO STATE
UTAH - 10 over Air Force
ARIZONA - 8 over Ucla
Louisville + 18 over CINCINNATI
RICE + 10 ½ over Central Florida
Florida - 22 over MISSISSIPPI STATE
HOUSTON - 17 over Smu
Fresno State - 25 over NEW MEXICO STATE
STANFORD - 6 over Arizona State
Boise State - 24 over HAWAII
UL LAFAYETTE - 3 over Florida Atlantic
TROY - 14 * over North Texas
Western Kentucky + 18 over MIDDLE TENNESSEE
* Projected Line
NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: PITTSBURGH - 4 over Minnesota - 6-0 Minnesota is an underdog for the first time this season. Pittsburgh's been favored in all 6 of their games but is just 1-5 ATS. Both of their losses have been by just a FG. Pittsburgh should be well prepared as they have a Bye next week while QB Favre and his Vikings have a key Divisional and emotional rematch at Green Bay. The Steeler offense has started to emerge, averaging 461 ypg in their current 3 game winning streak. Both teams have solid wins over both Detroit and Cleveland. Overall Pittsburgh has the better stats on both sides of the football, gaining 56 more yards and allowing 67 yards less than the Vikes. But Pittsburgh's been less efficient than Minnesota in translating yards into points (the 'X' Factor). The Steeler passing game has been a strength while the Minny pass defense has been a weakness. This is also Minnesota's first game outdoors since Opening Day in Cleveland 6 weeks ago. Pittsburgh's defense will pose problems for Favre which should mean turnovers and good field position for the Pittsburgh offense. Pittsburgh wins 27-17.
Other Featured NFL Selections :
San Francisco + 3 over HOUSTON - The 49ers have an extra week to stew over their home blowout loss to Atlanta before their Bye. Coach Singletary will have run a number of hard practices to get the 49ers refocused and RB Gore is probable to return. Houston had a nice road win at Cincinnati to even their record at 3-3 which positions them for a run at a Wild Card. But their inability to run the ball is a concern and the 49ers are a solid defensive team notwithstanding the Atlanta debacle. Houston averages just 3.0 yards per rush while allowing 4.9. The 49ers average 4.2 while allowing 3.3. That should enable the 49ers to control line play on both sides of the football. Houston does have the overall better offense but defense usually trumps offense when two unfamiliar foes meet, especially when the team with the better offense relies more on the pass than the run. Look for a well prepared 49ers team to pull the upset. San Francisco win 23-20.
N Y Jets - 6 over OAKLAND - In their OT loss to Buffalo the Jets ran for an outstanding 318 yards. That's 3 straight losses for the Jets who are now 3-3. Oakland stunned the football world with their 13-9 win over Philadelphia, a win keyed by their defense that harassed Philly QB McNabb all game. The Oakland offense continues to struggle as the Raiders are averaging just 10 points per game. The Jets' defense has struggled to stop the run in their last 4 games and has now lost key run stopper Jenkins for the season. But Oakland's offense poses less of a threat to the Jets' defense than has any other foe this season. Two teams have rushed for over 200 yards against the Raider defense. Last week's results have kept this line under a TD but the Jets have shown they are a solid football team notwithstanding their 3 straight losses. They are stepping down in class here and with a home rematch with Miami up next they cannot afford to lose a very winnable game to a foe they clearly out-talent. Look for the Jets to wear down the Raiders. N Y Jets win 23-10.
N Y GIANTS - 7 over Arizona - Arizona played brilliantly in routing Seattle last week while the Giants got a reality check with their one sided loss at New Orleans. The Saints exposed some of the Giants' defensive vulnerability that the Cards would like to attack if QB Warner is given time. Problem is that Arizona's lack of a running game allows the Giants' defense to pressure Warner, which should lead to multiple turnovers. The Cards' defense does excel against the run (60 ypg, # 1) but that is at the expense of their #31 pass defense that Giants' QB Manning can exploit. The Giants actually have a higher average per pass attempt and completion than does Arizona. The Giants' 'D' ranks #1 against the pass while also playing above average run defense. The proven character of the Giants suggests they'll rebound nicely especially in front of the Sunday night tv audience. They also have most of the fundamental edges. N Y Giants win 31-16.
Best of the Rest (Recommendations)
KANSAS CITY + 5 over San Diego
Indianapolis - 13 over ST LOUIS
Atlanta + 4 over DALLAS
Philadelphia - 7 over WASHINGTON (Monday)
The Rest (Opinions)
Chicago + 1 ½ over CINCINNATI
Green Bay - 7 over CLEVELAND
New England - 14 ½ over Tampa Bay (London)
CAROLINA - 7 over Buffalo
MIAMI + 6 ½ over New Orleans
Byes:
Baltimore
Denver
Detroit
Jacksonville
Seattle
Tennessee
Best of the NFL Totals
Chicago/Cincinnati UNDER 42
Minnesota/Pittsburgh OVER 45 ½
New England/Tampa Bay OVER 45
N Y Jets/Oakland UNDER 35
New Orleans/Miami OVER 47
Philadelphia/Washington UNDER 38
Money Line Recommendations
College:
VIRGINIA
South Florida
MICHIGAN
NEW MEXICO
Pro:
KANSAS CITY
San Francisco
MIAMI
Atlanta
Power Sweep
College
4* Oklahoma over Kansas 34-17
3* Boise State over Hawaii 45-10
3* W. Michigan over Buffalo 34-20
2* SMU (+) over Houston 31-38
2* Notre Dame over Boston College 38-14
2* BYU (+) over TCU 27-17
Underdog play
Washington over Oregon 26-23
NFL
4* Dallas over Atlanta 35-16
3* Indy over St. Louis 38-14
2* New Orleans over Miami 30-13
2* New England over Tampa Bay 31-13
Totals
3* Atlanta/Dallas OVER
3* Chicago/Cincy OVER
3* San Diego/KC UNDER
2* Jets/Oakland UNDER
2* New Orleans/Miami UNDER
Red Sheet
Penn State 33 - MICHIGAN 17 - (3:30 EDT) -- Line opened at PennSt minus 4, and is now minus 5. After a
somewhat shaky start in which they failed to cover during the entire month of Sept, losing a
home game to Iowa, the Lions have returned to their normal dominating selves over the past
few weeks, completely controlling Illinois & Minnesota with a 977-531 yd edge. Sure, the
Wolves are a definite step above those 2, but Rodriguez' squad is still assimilating his intricate
offense, & have yet to face a defense of this caliber. Nits also healthier by the week, &
that "O" resembling recent juggernauts. Spot well within reach.
RATING: PENN STATE 89
Central Michigan 45 - BOWLING GREEN 24 - (12:00) -- Line opened at CentMichigan minus 8, and is now
minus 7. The Chips just continue their excellence of the past few years, behind the more
than steady hand of the redoubtable LeFevour, who yet again ranks among the nation's elite
QBs: 12th in passing efficiency (70% & 14/4). CM has won its last 6 games, after that
opening week loss at Arizona, & has covered 5-of-6, with its only miss by a scant 2 pts at
Buffalo. The Falcons can't run (1,204-399 RY deficit last 5 wks) & the visitor is 15-3 ATS in
BG games by an incredible 209½ pts! Play their best ball in MAC.
RATING: CENTRAL MICHIGAN 89
NEVADA 48 - Idaho 24 - (4:00) -- Line opened at Nevada minus 12½, and is now minus 13½. Everyone is
fully aware of the surprising success of the Vandals this season. They've bagged no less
than 5 upset wins, standing at 6-1 SU, & a perfect 7-0 ATS. And that after posting records of
1-10, 2-10, 3-9, 3-9, 2-9, 4-8, 1-11, 2-10 since 2001. Simply astounding. And they've done
it with a balanced "O", led by QB Enderle (65%). But all good things must come to an end,
& this is the spot. The 'Pack has been simply superb, with the trio of Kaepernick, Lippincott,
& Taua nearly unstoppable. Try a 16-3 ATS run as HDs. Romper!
RATING: NEVADA 88
Tcu 45 - BYU 24 - (7:30) -- Line opened at Pick, and is now TCU minus 2½. That Cougar offense sure can
move the ball, behind QB Hall. The fact that they've averaged 42.7 ppg in their last 6 outings,
with Hall ranking 8th in the nation in total offense (306 ypg) says it all. However, that BYU "D"
is more than vulnerable, as Coogs' earlier 54-28 home loss to 2-4 FloridaSt attests. And
that is where this one will be decided. The Frogs are simply masters of the "D", having
allowed more than 17 pts in just 1 of their last 18 lined games. Completely smothering that
Coog "D" is impossible, but irrepressible Frogs handle spread with ease.
RATING: TCU 88
SYRACUSE 37 - Akron 17 - (3:30) -- Line opened at Syracuse minus 9, and is now minus 9½. The 'Cuse
still suffers a bit from post-Robinson drainage, but their improvement under Marrone is indisputably
obvious. Sure, they've struggled, offensively, with the turnover killing them at
inopportune situations. But they've had an extra week to prepare for a hopeful "2nd season",
beginning with this Zip squad, which has managed but a single win, & that vs patsy MorganSt.
They've lost the services of their leader, QB Jacquemain (suspension), & RB Kennedy
(graduation). Will be put to the test by oncoming Orange "D". Revenge.
RATING: SYRACUSE 88
NEW YORK GIANTS 34 - Arizona 20 - (8:20 - NBC) -- Line opened at NY Giants minus 7, and is still minus
7. Previously perfect Giants took it on the chin at NewOrleans, where their super "D" allowed
28 FDs & nearly 500 yds, to say nothing of 34 first half pts! But the Cards, who are
in off unquestionably their best showing the season, in that rout of Seattle (21-7 FD, 344-128
yd, 42:50-17:10 time edges), give NY a quick shot at redemption, & Giants not about to let it
slip by. Yes, we are well aware of the fact that the Cards covered their last 3 RGs by 29½,
17, & 27 pts, but Giants 22-6 ATS vs all comers. Huge bouncebacker.
RATING: NEW YORK GIANTS 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Stanford, UtahSt, SoCarolina, ColoSt -- NFL: Packers, Niners, Eagles
SPORTS MEMO NEWSLETTER BEST BETS
TIM TRUSHEL
Best Bet: Toledo +1
Temple Toledo +1
Toledo 42 at Temple (+26) 17 - 2005 O/U 54.5 4 pm PT
Toledo’s loss to Western Michigan two weeks ago was a bit shocking but stud quarterback
Aaron Opelt left in the first quarter leaving a freshman in charge of a 20-0 deficit.
While Opelt could play in this game, we feel his understudy Austin Dantin will continue
to do just fine if he gets the nod (five returning offensive linemen). Toledo can
still run the ball as evident by the 157 yards they racked up against a very good rush
defense in NIU. As for Temple, they come in off its longest win streak in 24 years, winners
of four straight. The Owls beat Buffalo in a huge revenge angle, and then took
down Army, Eastern Michigan and Ball State. Those four teams are a combined 6-21
and 1-8 in league play. Temple was actually outgained in those four games 301-286
on average! While Temple’s defense is indeed strong, we’re talking about a team that
is averaging just over 300 ypg of total offense going on the road to face one of the
MAC’s most dynamic offenses. The last three years, Temple has four road wins. Of those
teams, three finished with 4-8, 3-9 and 2-10 records, while Eastern Michigan is currently
winless. Toledo is 4-3 with losses to Purdue and Ohio State. Take the home team.
BRENT CROW
Best Bet: UL-Monroe +16
UL-Monroe +16 Kentucky
UL-Monroe (+17.5) 40 at Kentucky 42 - 2006 O/U NL 4 pm PT
Here is a perfect example of a disinterested favorite. Kentucky has played four
straight SEC games against Florida, Alabama, South Carolina and Auburn, culminating
with their win at Auburn last week to snap a three-game losing skid. They played
without starting quarterback Mike Hartline as well, adding to the emotion and effort.
The Wildcats will shock me if they look at this game as anything other than a break
in their tough schedule, and their effort will likely show as much. On the other hand,
Louisiana-Monroe has won three straight games and has already played big-time
opponents, Texas and Arizona State. I’m sure that Kentucky will look at the 59-20 and
38-14 losses to those teams and worry even less about the War Hawks this week.
They probably won’t notice that ULM held Texas and Arizona State to 4.46 ypc on
78 rushing attempts and have allowed just 3.52 ypc in three Sun Belt games since.
ULM won at Alabama just two years ago late in the season and three years ago lost a
42-40 decision in Lexington. This could very easily be another upset win for the Sun
Belt and a money line wager is definitely worth a look as well as taking the points.
TEDDY COVERS
Best Bet: Air Force +10.5
Air Force +10.5 Utah
Utah 30 at Air Force (+9.5) 23 - 2008 O/U 41 1 pm PT
Last week, my clients and I cashed a ticket betting against Air Force as a favorite, despite
the fact that Wyoming didn’t score a single point. This week, I expect to cash a
ticket betting on Air Force with the exact same rationale – they are the underdogs,
catching double-digits. Air Force doesn’t lose games by margin. Their three losses
this season have all come by a touchdown or less. This year’s defense is better than
any Air Force stop unit in the last decade. Through seven games, Troy Calhoun’s
squad has yet to allow more than 20 points in any contest, shutting down potent offenses
like Navy and TCU in the process. The Falcons have hung tough with the Utes
repeatedly in over the last four seasons. They won outright on their last visit to Salt
Lake City and lost by three, seven and three in the other meetings. And Air Force
continues to win the turnover battle every single week, leading the nation in turnover
margin. The Falcons were +13 in turnovers last year and +10 the previous year
– Calhoun’s teams have an offense that doesn’t make mistakes and a defense that
has far more playmakers than we’re used to seeing. Expect another tight ball game.
DONNIE BLACK
Best Bet: Miami +7
New Orleans Miami +7
Miami 21 (+2.5) at New Orleans 6 - 2005 O/U 47 1 pm PT
Last week the Saints came out of the bye week and absolutely crushed the Giants.
Early season comparisons to the 1999 Rams or the 2007 Patriots have started to take
hold in the media. Currently New Orleans ranks as the best offensive team averaging
a touchdown more per game than any other team. Drew Brees has played as well as
any and the defense has shown tremendous improvement. Even with the extra week
to prepare, Miami will not have an easy task. During the bye week, the Dolphins needed
to shore up a weak secondary. They have been susceptible to the big play and have
failed at times to get consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks. We trust that the
talented and prepared coaching staff in Miami will have made some key adjustments
and that with the extra time to prepare; the Fins will play their best defensive game.
One of their best defensive weapons is their offense. The wildcat formation and the
dedication to the running game will chew up clock and give Miami an edge. We saw
this in home games against Indianapolis and the NY Jets and expect that same success
this week against the Saints. Take the big points with the live home underdog.
ERIN RYNNING
Best Bet: Indiana +4.5
Indiana +4.5 Northwestern
Northwestern 19 at Indiana (+7.5) 21 - 2008 O/U 54.5 9 am PT
Expected bottom feeders of the Big Ten will slug it out this weekend with the Hoosiers
paying a visit to suburban Chicago. It was a solid sign last week that the Hoosiers
took care of business with a 27-14 win over Illinois. Indiana was embarrassed
a week earlier in a trip to Virginia, and the bounce back was a clear indication they
haven’t given up on their season. Remember, had IU won at Michigan -- a game
they held nearly a 100-yard offensive advantage -- they would have broke into the
top 25. This is still a team that’s pretty solid along the offensive and defensive lines
by Indiana standards. Meanwhile, Northwestern took a tough loss to Michigan
State last week, and is clearly wearing down in the second half. This is one banged
up football team right now with as many as 15 players listed as questionable for
this game. Keep in mind the Wildcats simply don’t have the depth to withstand
their rash of injuries right now. They also can’t run the football, averaging a paltry
3.0 yards per carry this season -- a number that could continue to slide. In fact, their
longest rushing play on the season is just 25 yards. Play the Hoosier plus the points.
ROB VENO
Best Bet: Western Michigan -4.5
Buffalo Western Michigan -4.5
Western Michigan (+1.5) 34 at Buffalo 28 OT - 2008 O/U 49.5 11 am PT
Projected to contend for their respective division titles, these squads are now virtually
out of contention and barely clinging to postseason hopes. But I feel like Western is in a
position to make a move. The Broncos’ offense has come alive the last couple of weeks
registering 1,031 total yards in games versus Toledo and Central Michigan. The deep
and balanced wide receiving corps allows veteran quarterback Tim Hiller to spread the
wealth which will test this Buffalo back seven. Hiller went 42-of-63 for 345 yards against
this secondary in last year’s 34-28 OT victory and could very well duplicate those numbers.
WMU’s recent schedule, which has seen them face three of the West Division’s top
teams in consecutive weeks, figures to have them primed to take on a lower echelon East
division foe. Injuries have plagued Buffalo since last August and the latest blow was the
loss of senior center Andrew West, who was the anchor to this patched up offensive line.
Without him, the Bulls recorded their lowest yards per play average of the season at 4.3
last week against Akron. This is Buffalo’s first road game in a month and with a leaky offensive
line this price tag signals a play on the Broncos on Homecoming in Kalamazoo.
FAIRWAY JAY
Best Bet: San Diego State +9.5
San Diego State +9.5 Colorado State
Colorado State 38 at San Diego State (+8) 34 - 2008 O/U 52 1 pm PT
We cashed our college underdog Game of the Year winner last week when San
Diego State delivered the “green” and we’ll come right back with the improving
Aztecs again this week. SDSU sophomore quarterback Ryan Lindley threw for
a career high 298 yards and three TDs in the loss to BYU last week. The strongarmed
pro prospect is showing more confidence and looks more comfortable
in the West Coast offense installed by new OC Al Borges. He should have success
against a Colorado State defense that allows over 64% completions and
252 passing ypg. The Rams have now lost four straight games and have more
questions at quarterback after senior Grant Stucker struggled again last week.
Combined with deficiencies on defense and an ineffective running game, we
feel the Aztecs have ways to counter Colorado State. San Diego State rushed
for a season high 226 yards in last year’s 38-34 loss to CSU and dynamic freshman
Walter Kazee should be more involved this week as Lindley spreads the
ball and field against a weaker defense. Take SDSU as a solid underdog Saturday.
MARTY OTTO
Best Bet: Washington +7.5
Oregon Washington +7.5
Washington 10 at Oregon (-14) 44 - 2008 O/U 52 12:30 pm PT
The difference just a few plays in one particular ball game can make in a line is remarkable.
I believe three plays have influenced this week’s Washington spread by a
full three points: a 100-yard kickoff return TD, a 32-yard INT return TD and a 50-yard
TD pass with five seconds remaining. The first two plays were non-offensive scores
that allowed Oregon to beat UCLA as a field goal favorite on the road. The last play
was a Hail Mary given up by Washington to lose at Arizona State. The two Oregon
plays mask what was a sluggish effort at UCLA and the 50-yard Hail Mary masks
what was otherwise a brilliant performance from the Huskies. Had they not occurred
Washington would be, in my opinion, no worse than a four-point dog. And that’s cool
with me! Washington is 3-1 at home with the lone loss coming by just eight points
to a tough LSU team. They have beaten USC and Arizona and Jake Locker might be
the PAC-10’s MVP at this point. His passing and running prowess is something the
Ducks will likely to struggle with even with the extra prep time. And don’t forget,
the Ducks have a showdown with USC on deck and could be caught looking ahead.
HELMUT SPORTS
Best Bet: Under 51
Texas -13 Missouri
Missouri 31 at Texas (-3.5) 56 - 2008 O/U 51 5 pm PT (ABC)
It’s quite obvious that Texas’ offense has taken a step back this season. Last year they had
one of the best offenses around averaging 474 ypg in conference games. Against conference
opponents this season they have not come within 130 yards of last year’s average. The
main reason for the drop-off in offense productivity is due to a stagnant running game that
has been slowed down because of injuries and inexperience Texas managed just 46 yards
on 25 carries against Colorado, which entered the game with the worst defense in the Big
XII. In three conference games the Longhorns are averaging 108 yards per game on the
ground, which is a drop off of 55 yards from last year’s average. The Tigers got off to a nice
start this season but it came largely against weak defenses. As the schedule got tougher
and they moved into conference play things have gotten extremely tough. The Tigers have
had issues running the ball failing to break 100 yards in the last three games and it is likely to
be a struggle for them again as Texas supports the top rush defense in the nation. Quarterback
Blaine Gabbert has also struggled, failing to complete over 50% of his pass attempts
his last two game. With a total that projects in the 56-60 range the under is worth a look.
ANDREW LANGE
Best Bet: Oregon State +21
Oregon State +21 USC
USC 21 at Oregon State (+24) 27 - 2008 O/U 50.5 5 pm PT
At home, the Trojans are rarely priced less than two touchdowns and rightfully so considering
they’ve gone 49-7 SU and a respectable 29-23 ATS as a home favorite since
2000. But through six games, it appears the gap between the Trojans and the rest
of the nation may be closing. Consider the following; last year, USC beat Ohio State,
Notre Dame and Washington by a total of 129-6. This year, the total margin was seven
points, with the Trojans going 2-1 SU and 0-3 ATS in the process. Now all three games
were on the road whereas 2008’s games were in Los Angeles, but no amount of home
field advantage accounts for that big of a discrepancy. As for the Beavers, they look to
be the same as pretty much every edition under head coach Mike Riley, who by the
way has gone 14-2 SU off a bye. They are average in a lot of categories but can stop
the run (97.8 ypg allowed) and have a handful of players, most notably Jacquizz Rodgers,
who are on a level playing field with a USC team that lost 21 players to the draft
over the last two years. Since 2007, USC is 24-6 against PAC-10 teams. The second best
record during that span? Oregon State, at a very respectable 21-9. Take the points