PLAYBOOK CFB 2-MINUTE HANDICAP - WEEK 4
Marc Lawrence
(All results are preseason ATS, and most recent, unless noted otherwise - * check earlier this season for similar result. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of PLAYBOOK™ and the PLAYBOOK™ Database and may not be re-used or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.)
Thursday, Sept 18th
W Virginia 3-0 Game Three… 7-1 in 2nd of BB RG… 7-3 weekday RG… 1-4 off SU loss as favs 7 > pts… 2-5 aft E Carolina
COLORADO 5-0 in 2nd of BB HG… 5-1 vs opp off SU fav loss… 3-1 off unlined SU win… 0-3 Game Three… 3-8 home vs non conf opp
Saturday, Sept 20th
Temple 5-2 away off conf RG… 0-4 L4 vs Big 10 opp… 2-8 vs non conf off conf RG… *2-8 off 3+ ATS wins… 3-7 Game Four
PENN ST SERIES: 5-1 L6 / 6-17 L7 H… 4-1 in 1st of BB HG… 7-3 as non conf favs 27 > pts… 0-8 Game Four… 1-4 aft Syracuse… 1-3 bef Illinois
Wyoming 4-1 as dogs 15 > pts… 0-6-1 w/ conf rev… 1-5 away off BB HG
BYU SERIES: 4-0 L4… 6-2 as HF’s 15 > pts… 12-4 vs conf opp w/ rev… 3-1 Game Four… 3-13 in 2nd of BB HG… 1-4 aft UCLA
Lsu 11-2 off 3 straight HG… 5-1 Game Four… 4-1 bef Miss St… 4-1 in 1st RG… 2-9 vs conf opp w./rev
AUBURN SERIES: 3-0 L3… 3-0 aft Miss St… 5-1 as conf fav/dog 3 < pts… 4-2 w/ conf rev… 0-4 bef Tennessee… 2-6 Game Four
Alabama 11-0 in 1st of BB RG… 3-0 in 1st RG… 4-1 away vs conf opp w/ rev… 1-6 bef Georgia… 1-4 Game Four
ARKANSAS SERIES: 4-1 L5… 5-1 Game Four… 7-3 before week of rest… 0-5 home w/ conf rev… 2-5 bef Florida
Wake Forest SERIES: 4-0 L4 / 4-1 L5 A… 4-0 off SU W but ATS… 6-1 as conf dogs 7 < Pts… 6-2 vs conf opp w/ rev… 1-6 w/ rest… 1-6 Game Three
FLORIDA ST 7-1 home vs rested opp… 11-2 in 3rd straight HG… 3-1 Game Three… 2-8 as favs 7 pts… 0-7 in 1st RG… 0-2 Game Three… 1-4 off BB HG
OREGON 4-0 L4 vs WAC opp… 7-1 Game Four… 5-1 as non conf HF’s… 7-2 H bef conf RG… *1-3 off SU win vs Big 10 opp
Utah SERIES: 3-1 L4 A… 17-2 aft Utah St… 1-4 in 2nd of BB RG… 7-3 w/ conf rev… 13 Game Four… 2-5 as conf RF’s < 9 pts
AIR FORCE SERIES: 3-1 L4… 8-1 bef HG vs Navy… 5-1 in 1st lined HG… 8-2 as conf HD’s 8 21 pts
MISSOURI 6-0 as non conf favs 17 > pts… 6-2 Game Four… 0-4 bef Nebraska… 1-4 in 3rd straight HG
Fresno St 5-1 in 1st of BB RG… 6-2 Game Three… 0-8-1 off SU home loss… 0-4 as non conf RF’s… 0-4 bef UCLA…
TOLEDO 7-1 in 1st lined HG… 8-2 in 1st of BB HG
Rice 0-4 Game Four… 0-4 L4 vs Big 12 opp… 1-5 as dogs 24 > pts… 3-7 in 3rd straight RG
TEXAS SERIES: 3-1-1 L5… 12-2 as non conf favs… 6-2 Game Four… 6-2 vs non conf pp w/ rev… 2-5 in 2nd of BB HG
Florida SERIES: 3-1 L4 / 3-1 L4 A… 6-1 vs conf opp w/ rev… 4-1 aft Miami Fla… 7-3 w/ rest off HG… 0-3 away off non conf SU W 21 > pts… 3-9 as conf RF’s 4 > pts
TENNESSEE 5-1 in 2nd of BB HG… 4-1 Game Three… 4-1 off SU non conf W 15 > pts… 7-2-1 w/ conf rev… 2-6-1 in 1st conf gm… 2-5 bef Auburn
Georgia 5-0 as non conf fav/dog 4 pts vs opp off SU road L… 1-3 dogs in Game Four
OHIO ST 4-0 bef Minnesota.. 3-0 Game Four… 8-2 in 1st of BB HG… 4-10 off non conf SU L
S Florida 4-0 vs winless opp after Game Two… 5-2 Game Four… 0-3 as non conf DD RF’s… 1-3 off SUATS home W
FLORIDA INTL 0-3 off SU L vs non conf opp… 2-7 aft score 7 < pts… 2-6 off BB RG
PLAYBOOK NFL 2-MINUTE HANDICAP - WEEK 3
Marc Lawrence
(All results are preseason ATS, and most recent, unless noted otherwise - * check earlier this season for similar result. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of PLAYBOOK™ and the PLAYBOOK™ Database and may not be re-used or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.)
Sunday, Sept 20th
Kansas City SEPT: 6-0 A off SU loss vs opp off SU loss…13-2 Game Three…SEPT: 8-2 dogs vs opp off SU loss
ATLANTA SERIES: 1-4 L5H…1-4 Game Three
Oakland SERIES: 6-2 L8 / 4-1 L5 A… 4-16 A vs opp w/rev …9-2 O/U Game Three
BUFFALO 5-0 vs AFC opp off SU dog win…*SEPT: 9-1 w/rev vs vs non div opp… 0-5 Game Three
Houston SERIES: 0-4 L4… SEPT: 7-0 over vs opp off A… 7-1 w/rev vs .500 > opp off DD ATS win… KUBIAK: 0-7 A w/rev
TENNESSEE 4-1 Game Three…SEPT: 0-6 H vs div off non div game… 0-4 HF’s off BB SUATS wins vs div opp… SEPT: 1-6 favs vs div opp w/rev…2-10 favs off SU non div win vs opp off SU loss
Cincinnati 0-6 dogs 4 > pts bef Browns…2-18 A vs .700 > opp…2-17 < .500 RD’s aft scoring pts LG… SEPT: 7-1 H w/rev vs non div opp…6-3 Game Three… 0-11 H off SU A win vs opp off SUATS loss… 0-8 HF’s off non div vs home vs non div opp off SUATS loss… 2-11 H off SU win vs 2nd home game of season… 2-6 Game Three
Miami 6-0 DD RD’s… SEPT: 5-1 vs div opp off SU win… 8-2 div dogs 1st 3 games of season…10-5 Game Three… 0-8 vs div opp off dog role
NEW ENGLAND SERIES: 6-2 L8 H… 10-0 off SUATS win & BB UNDERS vs div opp… 6-0 DD favs off SUATS win vs opp off BB SU losses… 9-1 DD HF’s vs opp off BB SU losses… 15-2 off SU win vs div opp off BB SU losses… 4-1 Game Three… SEPT: 4-1 DD favs… 0-9 vs opp off non div game
Tampa Bay SERIES: 3-1 L4… SEPT: 6-0 .500 > A vs .500 > opp… 9-2 Game Three… 0-14 A off SU win vs non div opp
CHICAGO SEPT: 1-8 vs opp off SU win w/rev…1-5 Game Three… SMITH: 7-0 off SU non div loss vs opp off SU win
Carolina 21-1 RD’s vs .550 opp
St. Louis SEPT: 6-1 < .500 dogs w/rev… 1-10 < .500 vs div opp off SU fav loss… 1-8 < .500 vs div opp… 1-3 Game Three
SEATTLE SEPT: 11-0 vs opp off BB SU losses… 1-11 favs pts off BB SU losses of 8 > pts… 1-12 < .500 A off Packers vs non div opp…1-11 w/rev off Packers vs non div opp… SEPT: 1-5 < .500 A…2-8 Game Three… MARINELLI: 1-9 vs opp off div game
SAN FRANCISCO 6-0 off SU dog win vs opp off DD SU loss w/rev… SEPT: 7-1 H off div game vs opp w/rev… 1-7 H vs 3 pts off SU loss vs opp off SUATS win… PAYTON: 6-1 dog vs .500 > opp… 3-7 O/U Game Three
DENVER 0-8 off div vs non div and div game next…2-9 H off BB SUATS wins…1-4 O/U Game Three
Pittsburgh SEPT: 0-7 dogs off SU win vs .500 > opp… TOMLIN: 0-6 A off SU win
PHILADELPHIA 7-1 Game Three…*SEPT: 10-2 off SUATS loss vs opp off SU win…*0-10 favs off BB SU wins vs AFC opp… 0-5 .500 > favs w/rev vs non div opp…*2-18 as pick or favs off BB SU wins vs AFC opp…2-10 H vs AFC opp
Jacksonville SERIES: 5-2 L7 / 3-1 L4 A… 6-0 dogs vs opp off SU fav loss…5-0 off BB AFC games w/rev
INDIANAPOLIS 10-0 off SU NFC win vs opp off SU loss w/rev… 7-0 favs pts LG…*16-3 .500 > off SU Eagles win vs NFC opp… 4-1 Game Three…*1-13 W/L % 1.000 off BB SU wins vs opp w/rev…*SEPT: 2-10 favs vs .500 > opp
GREEN BAY *9-0 off DD SU div win vs opp off SU win 7 off SU win w/rev vs non div opp…3-0 Game Three…*10-1 H w/rev vs .600 > non div opp off SUATS win… *SEPT: 1-7 .500 > off ATS loss vs non div opp
Monday, Sept 21st
NY Jets SERIES: 4-0 L4 / 5-1 L6 A…4-0 Game Three…6-1 A Monday… SEPT: 1-7 vs opp off SU fav loss
SAN DIEGO SEPT: 1-10 H off SUATS loss… TURNER: 0-8 off BB SUATS losses vs .500 > opp…1-6 O/U Monday
Red Sheet
MINNESOTA 31 - Florida Atlantic 14 - (12 Noon EDT) -- Line opened at Minnesota minus 7, & is now minus 6½. No questioning the fact that the Gophers "stunk out the joint" year ago, in Brewster's first year, as Minny's normally overpowering running game wound up just 48th in the nation, en route to an unimaginable 1-11 campaign, coming directly on the heels of 5 consecutive bowl years. And one of those 11 setbacks came in a trip to Ft Lauderdale, to take on the Owls. Gophers entered off a pair of OT games, with BigTen play (Purdue) the following week. The result, a 42-39 loss, featuring 7 TOS, with FA QB Smith burning them for 463 yds. Minny (3-0) has improved on all phases, so we color this one payback. RATING: MINNESOTA 89
CINCINNATI 24 - Miami-Ohio 23 - (7:30) -- Line opened at Cincinnati minus 13, & is now minus 11½. Much like the above selection, the Redhawks of Miami have a score to settle, after being blasted 47-10 by the Bearcats a year ago. In '07, Cincy was the master of the takeaway, & didn't disappoint in their demolition of Miami, a the 'Hawks turned it over 4 times, & had a punt blocked to boot. But things have changed dramatically since that encounter, as Miami returns 17 starters from last year's team which eventually made it to the MAC title game. The 'Cats are knee deep in QB trouble, as they are without LY's standout Mauk, with his replacement Grutza, is out (ankle). Line is more than juicy for this circled contest.RATING: MIAMI-OHIO 89
MICHIGAN STATE 34 - Notre Dame 10 - (3:30) -- Line opened at MichiganSt minus 7, & is now minus 8½. Well, the Irish came through for us as a 3* Phone Play, in their 35-17 win over Michigan a week ago (19½ pt cover), but a closer look shows that they did it mainly by the big play, as no less than 6 Michigan TOs paved the way. Just 14 Irish FDs, along with 388-260 yd deficit. NotreDame is averaging only 3.2 ypr in the early going, including a 3.1 ypr effort the previous wk, vs a SnDiegoSt team which was mauled for 293 RYs the following week. The Spartans completely dominated the Irish a year ago, holding ND to just 9 FDs. Not only that but MSt is smoking behind Ringer (282 RYs LW), & QB Hoyer. Totally focused.
RATING: MICHIGAN STATE 88
SO MISSISSIPPI 47 - Marshall 17 - (3:30) -- Line opened at SoMiss minus 10, & is now minus 9½. The line movement on this one is puzzling, as the Eagles of SoMiss have opened impressively, standing at 3-0 ATS, behind the throwing of RS frosh Davis, & the running of the steady Fletcher, who is accustomed to burning the Herd (151 & 152 yds the past 2 yrs). So take note of the Eagles winning their last series hoster by a 42-7 count (28-pt cover). This is SoMiss' 2nd home game of the season, so check piling up 30 FDs, 427 RYs, & 633 Total Yards in their first hoster, a 20-pt cover. Marshall is improved, but was mauled by 37 in its only road game to date, & has allowed at least 35 pts in 4 of its last 6 lined tilts. RATING: SO MISSISSIPPI 88
Rutgers 45 - NAVY 31 - (3:30) -- Line opened at Rutgers minus 4, & is now minus 4½. This contest is a classic "must-win" setup for the Knights, who've been a genuine embarrassment in the early going. They lost only 7 starters from LY's bowl squad, with high hopes from the faithful. But things have been a genuine nightmare so far, with a combined 68-19 scoring deficit in their 0-2 start (minus 68 pts ATS). Are an amazing 122 pts behind the pts in 9 of their last 10 regular season games. The Middies never have trouble moving it, but haveallowed 44 ppg in 12 of their last 13 games. It's now-or-never for the Knights. Now! RATING: RUTGERS 88
NEW YORK GIANTS 31 - Cincinnati 10 - (1:00) -- Line opened at NYGiants minus 13½, & is now minus 13. That's right, we've gone against the defending champions in both of their games so far, figuring the losses of Strahan & Umenyiora on that defensive line would be a bit too much to overcome, in trying to match LY's splendid defense, which simply ruled the post season. But the 'Skins were completely stymied in their opener, with Manning & Co exploding in game 2. Sure, the Rams post the worst "D" in the NFL, but this Bengal squad is knee deep in problems, with team unity nowhere to be found. Palmer has led an "O" which has managed just 17 pts & 19 FDs in its 2 outings to date, & won't dent NY "D". RATING: NEW YORK GIANTS 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Connecticut, Missouri, PennSt, Oregon -- NFL: Seattle, Carolina, SanDiego
LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest moves): Missouri (-31 to -33½); Mississippi (-4½ to -6½); Tulane (-4½ to -6); Miami-Ohio (+13 to +11½); LSU (-1½ to -3); Alabama (-8 to -9½); MichiganSt (-7 to -8½); BoiseSt (+13½ to +12); Miami-Fla (-2½ to -4); SoFlorida (-26½ to -28) - NFL: Miami (+13½ to +12½). -- TIMECHANGES: Mississippi/Vanderbilt: now 7:00; GaTech/Mississippi: now 1:00; WakeForest/FloridaSt: now 7:00; Miami-Fla/TexasA&M: now 3:30; EastCaro/NCSt: now Noon -- KEY INJURIES: AirForce FB Newell (ankle) probable; Akron RB Allen (hip) questionable; Cincinnati QB Grutza (ankle) out; Eastern Michigan QB Schmitt questionable; GaTech RB Dwyer (back) probable; Maryland RB Scott (shoulder) questionable; Nevada RB Lippincott (ACL) out; OhioSt RB Wells (foot) questionable; Oregon QB Roper (knee) out; TexasA&M RB G d (k ) T A&M QB M G ( h ld ) i b
Marc Lawrence Playbook Best Bets
3*s: C. Michigan, NO Saints, Titans over
4*s: Georgia, Hou Texans, SF 49ers over
5*s: BC, Car Panthers, Redskins over
BEST BET
Disappointing start for both programs with BC dropping its ACC opener to Georgia Tech while UCF fell in overtime to bitter intrastate rival SouthFlorida. We’re not at all enamored with OT losers (see last week’s I’M A LOSER article for more on this)… especially when the defeated squad was outgained by a 504-226 margin! Since each team has had an extra week to prepare, they’ll probably spend most of the time trying to revive a pair of moribund offenses. A quick check of the ATS archives tells us the Eagles are the more likely choice to succeed. Boston College stands 16-6 with rest when taking on .500 > non-conference foes and Jeff Jagodzinski’s bunch has covered 15 of 19 opportunities when winning SU as chalk versus .500 > opponents. Central Florida’s George O’Leary does not fare well when taking to the highway off a loss, compiling a weak 6-16 ATS record (0-4 playing out of conference). THIS JUST IN:Game Three Bowlers off a SU favorite loss (like BC) are an outstanding 16-3-1 ATS versus a foe that was a dog of more than 8 points in its last game. With UCF leaving Orlando for the fi rst time this season and Boston College facing lowly Rhode Island the following week, we’ll look to fly like an eagle with the more-focused Beantown Boys.BOSTON COLLEGE over C Florida by 21
BEST BET
We’ll learn a lot about Joe Tiller and his Purdue team here. After ripping through Oregon for 300 fi rst quarter yards and a 20-3 lead, the Boilermaker offense inexplicably fi red blanks the rest of the way against the Ducks – and before you could say ‘Donald’, Oregon had caught up and forced overtime, eventually winning 32-26. That devastating loss puts the Boilers smack in the middle of our classic ‘Home Favorite Letdown Off An Overtime Loss’ scenario (see last week’s I’M A LOSER article). Central Michigan may not get much attention but the Chippewas have averaged 9 wins per season over the last two campaigns and went bowling both years. They also owe Purdue for a pair of SU defeats in 2007, a 23-point embarrassment on this fi eld in Game Three and a narrow 3-point loss in the Motor City Bowl. In a battle of top-notch quarterbacks, we expect CMU’s Dan LeFevour to outduel the Boilers’ Curtis Painter and walk way with a statement-making win.Central Michigan over PURDUE by 1
BEST BET
You’ve got to hand it to Mark Richt. Last week’s SEC opener against South Carolina looked like an after-hours parking lot brawl outside a redneck bar but somehow the Georgia coach guided his Dawgs to a crucial 14-7 win over the Gamecocks. Now comes the part of the schedule where Richt shines: he’s 32-2 SU versus non-conference foes – 27-0 during the regular season – plus he’s 26-4 SU and 19-11 ATS away from Athens. It doesn’t also doesn’t hurt that Preseason No. 1 teams are 26-2 SU and 18-9 ATS in Game Fours. Since Arizona State’s jackrabbit 8-0 SU start last year, the Sun Devils have cooled considerably, going just 4-4 SU and 1-6 ATS (shocked last week in OT by UNLV, 23-20, as 25-point favorites). We can sweeten the deal by telling you home teams off an overtime loss were just 24-41-3 ATS entering this season when taking on a foe off a SU win.The best of this week’s SMART BOX confi rms our choice – Dawgs rule in the desert tonight.Georgia over ARIZONA ST by 17
BEST BET
Thanks to Ike the Texans will tackle the Titans with the benefi t of an extra wink of rest. And if you are winless in the NFL, that’s a nice handicapping combination. That’s confi rmed by the fact that teams in this league that have yet to win a game are 32-19-1 ATS when taking points with the benefi t of an extra week to prepare. More important, Houston needs this game like blood given Tennessee’s 2-0 start to the season. Jeff Fisher wears a label as a good dog. When laying points against winless teams he is just 2-6 ATS in his NFL career, including 1-6 as a single-digit favorite.Titans drop to 1-7 ATS as September chalk against avenging division foes here today. Texans get back in the mix of things today.Houston over TENNESSEE by 7
BEST BET
Intent on making more than a point, the man on a mission stamped himself with a stirring two-point conversion to steal last week’s game away from San Diego. Mike Shanahan’s job this week will be to keep his team at the same level they were during the Charger game. That may be a problem considering the Broncos are in the middle of a season opening division sandwich. To that extent they are 0-8 ATS in this role (division games before and after with a non-division game in the middle). They are also just 2-9 ATS at home off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. The Saints will gladly comply, sporting a 7-0 ATS mark as road dogs of more than 3 points off a loss when taking on an opponent off a SU and ATS victory. With New Orleans boss Sean Payton 6-1 ATS in his NFL career as a dog against .500 or better opposition, look for venue to turn into Mile Sigh today.New Orleans over DENVER by 7
BEST BET
The Vikings were many a ‘Wise Guys’ choice to win the NFC North Division while making their way to the playoffs. A strengthened defense with a powerful running game made for solid reasoning. Missing from the equation, though, is a quarterback. When they go down this week it’s safe to say Tarvaris Jackson will be carrying a clipboard sooner than later. The Jackson experiment aside, the Panthers have capitalized on the return of QB Jake Delhomme, vaulting to a 2-0 start sans the services of his best WR Steven Smith. Like the Terminator, Smith’s back this week and these Cats are lovin’ it. The most mind-boggling stat of all is at work here as Carolina is 20-1 ATS as a non-division road dog against .550 or less opposition in their franchise history, including 20 wins in a row! With Game Three winless favorites of less than 5 points just 3-19-2 ATS since 1990, you’d be wise to join the guys who realize Carolina is a live Road Cat!
Carolina over MINNESOTA by 10
THE SPORTS MEMO
ROB VENO
CAROLINA AT MINNESOTA -3
Recommendation: Minnesota
With home games at such a premium in the NFL, expect the Vikings to place extreme emphasis on this one. The Vikes are in the second of back-to-back home games after allowing Indianapolis to steal one on this field last week. Minnesota is also in early desperation mode after a 0-2 start while 2-0 Carolina is on a cloud nine high after pulling off their second consecutive come-from-behind fourth quarter victory. With a pair of solid situationals pointing toward the host, expect the fundamentals to work for them as well. Carolina is predicated on running the football and Minnesota boasts one of the toughest run defenses in the league. Quarterback pressure has also been a forte of the Vikings the first couple of weeks and I believe they’ll overwhelm the good but not great Panthers front. Even with the return of WR Steve Smith, this does not appear to be a good fit for the Carolina passing game, which likely needs a week to get in a rhythm. This raucous venue isn’t the place for that to happen. Situational and fundamental indicators are all strongly in the Vikings favor here and this price provides great value
JARED KLEI
ST. LOUIS +10 AT SEATTLE
Recommendation: Rams
There is no way to sugarcoat it, the St. Louis Rams have been terrible through the first two games of the season. They’ve given up 966 yards of total offense and have been outscored 79-16. Now while all that looks terrible on paper, it must be noted that they played two very good teams in Philadelphia and the New York Giants. This week it gets easier for the Rams as they open divisional play against the extremely banged up Seattle Seahawks. I can honestly say that I don’t know who Matt Hasselbeck will be throwing to this weekend. Seattle lost both wide receivers, Logan Payne and Seneca Wallace, to injuries against the 49ers. The Seahawks are already without pass catchers Bobby Engram,Deion Branch, Nate Burleson and Ben Obomanu. This week they are left with unproven Courtney Taylor, Billy McMullen (signed earlier this week) and Michael Bumpus, who was signed off the practice squad last Saturday. The Rams certainly aren’t going to be in the playoff hunt let alone vying for a .500 record but not only is Seattle banged up, they are an aging team and one that is nowhere near as good as this line would indicate. Take the Rams
ERIN RYNNING
DETROIT AT SAN FRANCISCO -4
Recommendation: 49ers
The Lions take a trip to the West Coast as they challenge the 49ers Sunday afternoon. This is a tale of two teams going in different directions. The Lions are brutal from the front office to the field, and I don’t say this lightly as they might not win one game this season. The Lions were embarrassed in week one by an equally dreadful Atlanta team, while self-destructing once again last week against Green Bay. Last week’s loss had to hurt team morale further after battling back. Keep in mind this team was fighting among themselves on the sidelines against Atlanta. Meanwhile, the 49ers played much better than their opening week loss to Arizona would indicate (five turnovers). Last week, the ball didn’t bounce their way early as they were down 14-0 against Seattle early on but rebounded with a huge overtime win. Keep in mind, the 49ers’ new offensive coordinator Mike Martz knows the Detroit personnel and is smarter than anyone on the Detroit sideline. Finally, the caliber of these two in terms of defense and pure tackling ability is wide, and it strongly favors San Francisco. Looking to take advantage of a reasonable line here with the home favorite.
FAIRWAY JAY
OAKLAND AT BUFFALO O/U 37
Recommendation: Under
A year ago the Bills started 0-2 and suffered numerous injuries. Buffalo returns
home this week 2-0 following an impressive 20-16 road win at Jacksonville - an outright underdog winner for us. The Bills’ defense has held each of their opening two opponents to just 3.8 and 4.3 yards-per-play while allowing only 10 and 16 points, respectively. Buffalo will face a stronger running attack this week, and the Raiders are a one-dimensional offense that piled up 300 yards rushing last week in their win at Kansas City. While that was a dominating display, it must be noted that QB JaMarcus Russell was just 6-of-17 for 55 yards passing. He’s been shaky in the early going, and traveling to Buffalo is one of the toughest places to play as a visiting quarterback, especially one that has never made the trip and lacks experience. The Bills’ defense can load the box to slow what the Raiders do best, and while Buffalo’s running game has averaged just 3.3 ypr in two games, they’ll rely on Marshawn Lynch and a short passing game facing the Raiders’ solid secondary. Few big plays in this contest as defense, running games and the clock will be on display.
TEDDY COVERS
MARSHALL AT SOUTHERN MISS -9.5
Recommendation: Southern Miss
You’re not going to find a less hyped 3-0 ATS team than Southern Miss, way off the radar screen for most of the betting marketplace. Most preseason guides predicted a down season for the Golden Eagles. They haven’t been on TV, and they were beat up pretty good in their lone test against a BCS powerhouse, although they came back late to cover at Auburn. Make no mistake about it, however - this team is exceeding expectations and should be able to do so again here. In their lone home game, Southern Miss hung 51 points and 633 yards of offense on Louisiana-Lafayette. Redshirt frosh QB Austin Davis has been remarkably impressive in his first season as the starter. Junior running back Damion Fletcher will be playing on Sundays in a year or two. Frosh wide receiver DeAndre Brown will be the best playmaker on the field here. Marshall lost by nine at home to Southern Miss last year. The Thundering Herd lost 42-7 on their last trip to Hattiesburg. In four seasons under Mark Snyder, Marshall is a truly woeful 2-17 SU on the road, losing 14 of those games by double-digit margins,with a 4-13 ATS mark as a road underdog . That’s a trend worth betting!
BRENT CROW
EAST CAROLINA -7.5 AT NC STATE
Recommendation: East Carolina
After winning with East Carolina in its first two games, I passed last week as they nipped Tulane, 28-24. That was an obvious letdown spot for them and I didn’t expect them to play their best. This week they should have plenty of motivation for their in-state rivals from Raleigh. The Pirates have long hated NC State, and this is yet another chance to knock off a BCS school. Adding to the motivation for the Pirates is a 34-20 home loss to the Wolfpack last year. There is no doubt that East Carolina has the better team this year, and its defense should shut down a woeful NC State offense that has scored just three points in two games against I-A competition. State scored a touchdown on an interception return last week on the first play of the game, yet still lost to Clemson 27-9 and was shut out in their opener by South Carolina, 34-0. The East Carolina defense has allowed just 275 yards per game in their three wins over Virginia Tech, West Virginia and Tulane. The offense, led by Patrick Pinkney, has yet to really explode, but they have been solid and will face a young NC State defense that has allowed 4.75 ypc thus far. Pirates win this one easily.
MARTY OTTO
NAVY AT RUTGERS O/U 58
Recommendation: Over
Rutgers’ quarterback Mike Teel has looked terrible through two games but there isn’t much doubt that he’ll have a huge day here against Navy. The Midshipmen allowed opponents to connect at a 70% clip in the pass game last year and have already been torched twice this season by Ball State and Duke for over 640 yards and seven TDs through the air. Teel has lost his composure against two up and coming defenses but he still moved the ball. The difference this week is that they will finally turn the yardage into points. Kenny Britt and Tiquan Underwood will have a field day against this secondary. But Navy will have its fare share of success offensively as well. We have seen the Rutgers defense give up 160 yards and three scores to Ryan Matthews in week one and UNC had no trouble ripping off 4.1 yards per carry as a team. This is a tough system to prepare for and stop and I have no faith in the Scarlet Knights to keep Shun White, Kaipo, or Jarrod Bryant in check. After all, Navy has scored at least 23 points in 18 straight games. Over is the play this week.
TIM TRUSHEL
VIRGINIA TECH AT NORTH CAROLINA -1.5
Recommendation: North Carolina
We picked North Carolina to win the ACC Championship and part of the reasoning behind that selection was the fact that within their division, the powerhouse teams Virginia Tech and Miami-Florida, were down significantly. Head coach Butch Davis has a young but talented group of players. With 18 returning starters, the benefit of playing so many true freshmen and sophomores last year, would be realized this season. Brandon Tate is as a dynamic talent as we have seen all year long. Not only is he a solid receiver but he is the best return men in college football. Hakeem Nicks is somewhat overshadowed by Tate, but he makes for an explosive tandem. Quarterback TJ Yates is quite efficient and has a knack for making big plays. Their hard hitting defense is quick to the ball and has created turnovers regularly. Simply put this is a solid team. Virginia Tech perhaps telegraphed their intention on the season when Frank Beamer originally had decided to red-shirt quarterback Tyrod Taylor. Perhaps not convinced that the season would be a huge success,Beamer originally felt better served in playing for the future. As evidenced this is not a great Hokies team. They are skittish on offense and will not have any athletic edge on special teams. We clearly see that the better team is UNC and will lay the short price.
ED CASH
GEORGIA -6.5 AT ARIZONA STATE
Recommendation: Georgia
Georgia got a very stiff test last week in Columbia, South Carolina, surviving with a 14-7 win over the Gamecocks. This week they travel across the country to face an Arizona State team that lost at home to UNLV last week as a 24-point favorite. I am sure that the Sun Devils were probably thinking about Georgia last week, but I am not sure that is going to help them this week. The Bulldogs should be too tough and fast for the Sun Devils of the PAC-10, which went 0-4 against the Mountain West last week. Georgia faced a very physical South Carolina defense last week, but that won’t be the case in the desert. Look for Knowshon Moreno and the Georgia running game to have a big day, which will set up the passing game as well. Arizona State seems to still be a notch below the top level of college football teams as evidenced by their last three games as an underdog. They lost to Texas in last year’s Holiday Bowl, 52-34, and were beaten in the regular season by USC, 44-24 and Oregon, 35-23 and were outgained by an average of 461-358 in the three losses. Expect more of the same this week.
DONNIE BLACK
LSU AT AUBURN +3
Recommendation: Auburn
The Auburn offense in its win over Mississippi State looked about as poor as an SEC offensive unit has looked all year. Perhaps the only exception was Mississippi State as they could manage no offense scoring in the 3-2 (yes that’s right) defeat. Against MSU the Auburn offense struggled as it lost three more fumbles and committed 12 penalties for 94 yards. On the season they have committed eight turnovers, six of which are fumbles from skill position players. Yet while Auburn has struggled offensively, its defense has been positively dominant. This past weekend, the Bulldogs were held to 116 yards while going 0-for-14 on third-down conversions and 0-for-3 on fourth downs. They were forced to punt 10 times. On the season, Auburn has held the opposition to just 641 total yards of offense in three games. Auburn ranks third nationally in scoring defense (5.0), ninth in rushing defense (53.0) and 10th in total defense (213.7). They don’t miss tackles and they don’t allow extra yardage after contact. The opposition has been held to an incredible 3-of-46 on third down conversions. We expect improved play out of the offense as they eliminate the turnovers and we’ll call for the home team to win the ninth consecutive game in the series. Play the home underdog Tigers.
HQ Report Newsletter
5* FLORIDA (-7) over TENNESSEE by 18
3* BALL STATE (+4) over INDIANA
3* IOWA STATE (+3) over UNLV
3* SAN JOSE STATE (+10) over STANFORD
HQREPORT UNDERDOG PLAY of the WEEK
*BAYLOR (+14) over CONNECTICUT
HQREPORT TOTAL RECALL OVER / UNDER
*CENTRAL MICHIGAN vs PURDUE PLAY OVER
A.T.S. (Angles, Trends & Systems)
*TULSA (-10) over NEW MEXICO
Pointwise write-ups--college
LOUISVILLE 31 - Kansas State 30 - (8:00 - ESPN2) -- Don't like this one a bit.
The rebuilding Cards are just 7 pts from a 4-18 spread slide, & allowed at least 38
pts 7 times LY. Have turned it over 7 times in 2 games, so Cantwell & Co must
end that tendency. 'Cats have a 114-16 pt edge so far, with similar 471, 481 yds,
but they've allowed 47.5 ppg in their last 4 away games. Just too many negatives.
THURSDAY
West Virginia 37 - Colorado 27 - (8:30 - ESPN) -- Just 251 yds for Mounties in
loss to ECaro, along with a 35:91-24:19 time deficit, but White threw for 5 TDs
wk before, so not sold on WV demise (were at 41 ppg previous 32 games). No
rest for Buffs, who have FlaSt, Texas, & Kansas on deck. Came back from 21-17
deficit in 4th vs EWash, & have a decent run "D". Plenty of fireworks. WV vote.
FRIDAY
CONNECTICUT 41 - Baylor 14 - (8:00 - ESPN2) -- No questioning improvement
of Bears. Check 426 RYs (10.1 ypr) vs defenseless WashSt, after ranking 113th
in running LY. Check QB Griffin with 346 total yds in that one, & solid run "D" to
date. But Donald Brown (566 RYs, & 8 TDs) is smoking, with QB Lorenzen off a
13-of-15 outing, & UConn has allowed only 98 pts in its last 9 HGs. Lay the wood.
SATURDAY
PENN STATE 45 - Temple 10 - (12:00) -- Owls are reeling. From an OT loss to
a "Hail Mary" loss in the last 2 weeks. Ouch! Well aware of the fact that they
are a dream vs the line (+87½ pts last 13 games), & have allowed <17 pts in 4
of last 5 outings. But Lion spread "O" is picture perfect: 166-37 pt edge thus
far, with balanced 879 RYs & 819 PYs. And just 64 RYpg defensively. Romper!
BOSTON COLLEGE 28 - Central Florida 10 - (1:00) -- Realize that the dog is a
solid 33-17 ATS in Eagle games (+56 pts ATS in last 13), but BC is again a
defensive force. Held GaTech option to just 162 RYs (43 of which came on
winning TD, & should bottle up Knights, who just aren't the same without LY's
leading runner, Smith. Just 76 RYs vs SoFla, along with a 504-226 yd deficit.
NORTHWESTERN 27 - Ohio U 26 - (12:00) -- 'Cat "D" is up a few notches from
LY's 84th ranking vs pts, but Syracuse, Duke, & SoIllinois hardly represent
legitimate tests. Remember, they had a 144-yd deficit at Duke. Play their best
at home (6-1 ATS lately), as has OhioU, but OU covered its first 2 roadsters TY
by 10½ & 21½. And check QB Jackson's 365 yds & 3 TDs in LW's tight loss.
CINCINNATI 24 - Miami-Ohio 14 - (7:30) -- Bearcats never far from the spot, as
last 4 have been decided by cumulative 5½ pts ATS. Couldn't stay with Okla
(30 FDs, 592 yds), & now QB Grutza may be lost (ankle). Miami is motoring at
a mighty 82 RYpg, but QB Raudabaugh a good one. We steer clear of this one.
MISSISSIPPI 31 - Vanderbilt 30 - (12:30) -- Reb QB Snead has lived up to the
hype (6 TD throws last 2 games), & OleMiss could easily be unbeaten. Solid
run "D", & on a 5-0 ATS run, by 4, 2, 3½, 8½, & 5 pts. Have Fla up next, but
must contend with solid Vandy squad, which has covered its first 3 games by
49 pts, behind QB Nickson, RB Hawkins, & a super run "D" (<99 ypg). 'Dores.
GEORGIA TECH 20 - Mississippi State 13 - (1:00) -- Let's see. Only 6 FDs, 38
RYs, 78 PYs, & 2 pts for the Bulldogs LW, yet a 9-pt cover. Thus, MissSt has
held 6 of its last 8 foes under 15 pts. But the Jackets still clicking, overland:
278 RYs vs VaTech (QB Nesbitt 151 RYs), altho 3 key TOs killed 'em in that
tight setback. Dog is 13-2-1 in GT games, but MSt is in Arky/LSU sandwich.
BYU 48 - Wyoming 10 - (3:00) -- Coog streak now at 13. What a masterpiece
for Hall, who tied school-record with 7 TDs in 59-0 rout of decent Ucla. He now
has 1,095 PYs. Solid run "D", & have held 8 of last 12 foes 34 pts in 4 of last 5 lined games. So 115-7 pt balanced
start taken with grain of salt. Rested Wake took OleMiss on 41-yd FG in final
0:03. QB Skinner so far: 59-of-79, that run "D" again a force. Dominated LY.
MICHIGAN STATE 34 - Notre Dame 13 - (3:30 - ABC) -- Call this along lines of
year ago, when Hoyer & Ringer had their way with Irish (Wise Points). So note
Ringer in off career-high 282 RYs, with 7 TDs for the season. NoDame got the
win vs Michigan, but 6 Wolve TOs were key. Not much doing, overland (3.2
ypr this yr), with Clausen's 4 INTs nearly offsetting his 5 TDs. Methodical win.
OREGON 42 - Boise State 20 - (3:30) -- Unbeaten Ducks at 323 RYpg, having
piled up 1,687 yds in their 3 outings. Averaging 42.6 ppg in 15 of their last 16
games. Check 26 FDs, 503 yds in OT win at Purdue. But may have lost QB
Roper (ankle). Just 16 FDs & 340 yds for Broncos vs WMich, despite Johnson's
7.5 ypr. Averaging 43 ppg last 12 games, but the Ducks are "money" at home.
AIR FORCE 34 - Utah 33 - (4:00) -- Utes have a 100-31 pt edge last 2 wks, &
have allowed only 11, 15, & 8 FDs. Epitome of balance: 458 RYs, 428 PYs last
2, behind QB Johnson's leadership (missed LY's match). And check a 64
RYpg "D". Will need it, as they run smack into Falcon running machine (1,074
yds so far). AF 5-0 ATS home LY by 52 pts, & on a 9-1 spread run. Barnburner!
TULSA 51 - New Mexico 34 - (7:00) -- Love 'Cane "O" (45 & 51 pts, along with
601 & 555 yds): QB Johnson 9 TDs, 750 PYs, but check allowing 864 yds to
the likes of UAB & NoTex. Lobos' Ferguson has run for 135 & 158 yds last 2
wks, & visitor is 28-15 in NMex tilts, but note 37-0, 28-10 losses in last 2 RGs.
INDIANA 31- Ball State 30 - (7:00) -- This could be a classic. Cards off to 3-0
start, with finely balanced attack, behind RB Lewis & QB Davis, who has 9 TD
passes so far, & who blitzed Indy LY (Wise Points). Ditto Indy, with RB Thigpen,
& QB Lewis, who also had his way in their '07 meeting. Should go to the wire.
PURDUE 49 - Central Michigan 30 - (12:00) -- Boilers caught in Oregon/NoDame
sandwich here, but no looking past Chips who nailed 'em for 48 pts in '07 bowl
meeting. OT loss to Ducks hurt, but balanced attack behind Painter & Sheets
(180 RYs vs OU) should move it vs a Central team which has allowed 52, 45,
70, 51, & 56 pts in last 5 non-MAC RGs. LeFevour a prize, but no rushing "O".
Akron 38 - ARMY 17 - (1:00 - ESPNC) -- Have to go back to '06 season to find
last time Zips were a RF (35-20 loss to Toledo). Their "D" is scary, & check QB
Jacquemain's 4 INTs in loss to BallSt. But Cadets allowing 39.3 ppg in last 7
outings, losing 6 of those 7 by 166 pts. A 63-17 deficit to NewHamp & Temple.
MARYLAND 40 - Eastern Michigan 17 - (1:00) -- Well, Terps got off 14-pt schneid
in shocker vs Cal, holding the Bears (391 RYs previous wk), to just 38 RYs.
Are in Cal/Clemson sandwich, but Eagles have been blasted for 52, 39, 45, 42,
& 41 pts in last 5 lined games. Trailed Toledo 41-7 in 3rd LW. More of same.
Miami-Florida 17 - TEXAS A&M 16 - (7:00) -- Both had LW off. Ags still can't
run: 255-133 & 216-92 deficits thus far. Their win over NewMex was a direct
result of 4 takeaways. The host is 24-16 ATS in A&M games but note losing
their last HG by 22 pts ATS. 'Cane overland game was also exposed (1.6 ypr
vs Florida), altho solid run "D". But averaging just 7.8 ppg in last 4 lined tilts.
East Carolina 30 - NORTH CAROLINA STATE 10 - (7:00) -- Only TD scored by
Wolfpack in 1-pt cover vs Clemson came on an INT return on game's first play.
Ouch! So 3 pts over the final 59:53. Check a 136-27 pt deficit thus far. Evans
lit it up vs Pirates LY, but can't see repeat. ECU needed 24-yd Pinkney TD
pass (26-of-83 this yr) in final 1:41 to beat Tulane, so no looking past anyone.
MISSOURI 63 - Buffalo 13 - (2:00) -- Loved 26-pt cover with the irrepressible
Tigers, who've averaged 42.5 ppg over last 17 outings. Daniel: another 4 TD
passes in rout of Nevada. Check 549, 592, & 651 yds this yr. Upticking Bulls
beat Temple on a 35-yd Willy "Hail Mary" pass. He was 29-of-41, & has now
thrown for 8 TDs. Impressive, but not about to buck 14-3 spread run of Tigers!
Fresno State 38 - TOLEDO 20 - (8:10) -- Bulldogs let us down by a pt in tight
loss to Wisconsin, missing 3 FGs. Outstatted Badgers, & covered previous 2
games by 36 pts. Rockets: 3 TD passes from Opelt, & 168 RYs from Collins in
rout of EMich. But note 21 pts off TOs. Despite Ucla on deck for the Bulldogs.
TEXAS 55 - Rice 17 - (7:00) -- Check our Wise Points. Right, total Steer series
domination. No reason not to continue, as the 'Horns have scored 59, 52, 52,
& 42 pts in their last 4 SU wins, & McCoy has opened the year with a 44-of-58
showing. Just 122 RYs vs Utep may be cause for concern, but Owls allowing
42.2 ppg in last 14 lined affairs. Despite talents of Clement, Dillard, & Casey.
UTAH STATE 37 - Idaho 30 - (4:00) -- Chance for Ags to take out frustrations, as
they've suffered thru 66-24 & 58-10 losses the past 2 wks. Are now on a 2-19
SU slide. Vandals match it with 1-12 SU run, altho they did total 455 yds in loss
to WMich, with Enderle to Williams good for 191 yds. We don't get near this.
Tcu 51 - SMU 14 - (8:00) -- Jones finding going a bit rougher than at Hawaii. His
minions snuck under 36½ pt spot with only score vs TxTech coming in final
3:29. Mitchell: 5 INTs. Ponies have now allowed 43.4 ppg in last 9 lined games.
Total Frog domination vs Stanford LW, despite narrow cover. Tcu has a 73-29
FD edge thus far, allowing only 56, 3, & 71 RYs. Even with Oklahoma up next.
Florida 24 - TENNESSEE 22 - (3:30 - CBS) -- Nice bouncebacker for Vols in
rout of Uab, following Ucla loss. Perfect balance (443 RYs, 471 PYs) behind
QB Crompton & RB Foster. And check allowing only 68.5 RYpg. Dog was a
brilliant 43-20 ATS in Gator games, but worm has turned, with chalk 6-0 in last
6 regular season affairs. Just 17 FDs & 89 RYs vs Miami. Classic SEC war!
Georgia 31 - ARIZONA STATE 20 - (8:00 - ABC) -- First of 4 killers for Devils,
who are in off blowing 20-10 lead in 4th vs Unlv, as 24-pt chalks. Carpenter
has thrown for 975 yds for State, but virtually non-existent overland game. The
'Dawgs managed but a single offensive TD in SCaro escape, with a pair of key
takeaways, & a 1.1 ypr "D" vs 'Cocks. Simply a matter of backing better team.
Iowa State 27 - UNLV 17 - (9:00) -- Rebels sky-high off tying ArizSt in final 0:18,
& winning in OT as 24-pt dogs, so run smack into the "Blind Hog" theory. The
fact of the matter is that Vegas' bell has been rung for 32.7 ppg over its last 24
contests. Cyclones couldn't do much vs Iowa "D", but are on a 6-1 spread run,
covering those 6 by 80 pts. Rely mainly on QB Arnaud, but 3 INTs LW. Cycs.
STANFORD 30 - San Jose State 20 - (9:00) -- Loved Spartan rout of SDiegoSt
(19-pt cover), as Reed hit his first 12 passes, while tossing 3 TDs. Allowed no
offensive TDs, & rolled up a 293-6 RY edge. But SJSt has a 270-82 pt deficit
on the road since LY, & can't ignore series history (Wise Points) which is just
overwhelmingly in Cardinal column, & Stanford did cover its first HG by 10½.
UTEP 38 - New Mexico State 23 - (9:00) -- Well, Miners have allowed 42 & 42
pts so far, as well as 43.5 ppg in their last 11 games. But outstatted Texas (122
RYs "D"). Ags in off allowing 330 RYs to Nebraska's previously 119 RYpg "O".
Holbrook has tossed for >1,000 yds last 2 in series, & he will need it all in this.
UCLA 31 - Arizona 22 - (3:00) -- Bounceback time for 1 of these 2, who were
both humiliated LW. Check just 29 & 9 RYs for the Bruins so far (0.8 ypr), with
QB Craft shouldering the load. 'Cats turned it over 5 times at NewMex, with a
221-67 RY deficit. The host team is on a 24-8 spread run in Uclan games, as
well as scoring 31.3 ppg in last 35 games. 'Cat "D": 32.2 ppg "D" last 6 RGs.
ADDED GAMES
OHIO STATE 37 - Troy 20 ARKANSAS ST 42 - Middle Tenn St 30
TULANE 28 - La-Monroe 13 Florida Atlantic 27 - MINNESOTA 26
So Florida 45 - FLA INTERN'L 12 Kent State 20 - LA-LAFAYETTE 16
Pointwise NFL
MINNESOTA 23 - Carolina 22 - (1:00) -- Vikes must be in shock, letting a 15-0
lead over the Colts completely melt in the final 16½ minutes, losing in the last
0:03. Have run for 187 & 180 so far, with Peterson at 263 RYs, but just 1 TD
pass from Jackson. Panthers true heartstoppers thus far, taking SanDiego on
final play, & overcoming a 17-3 deficit vs Chicago, despite only 12 FDs & 216
yds. They covered their first RG by 10½, & the dog is 54-28 ATS when they
take the field. Not only that, but Carolina is 14-6 ATS as a Sept dog, & 22-12
ATS away vs <.500 opponents. Minny 1-7 ATS as fav vs foes off SU/ATS win.
SEATTLE 33 - St Louis 13 - (4:05) -- Well, we went with the Seahawks to come
storming back with a blowout win vs the Niners LW, & it not only didn't pan out,
but an outright loss to boot. Hasselbeck is now just 35-of-76 with just a single
TD, & 3 picks. And check 5 Seattle TOs to date, altho Jones did motor for 127
yds vs SF. But if Holmgren's troops are to shake the cobwebs, there is no
better spot, as the Rams are the pits. Check a 79-16 pt deficit, a 53-21 FD
deficit, a 967-367 yd deficit, along with a 3-14 ATS run. Rams are 9-17 ATS in
division play, while Seattle is 11-0 ATS in Sept vs a foe off a pair of SU losses.
Detroit 27 - SAN FRANCISCO 26 - (4:05) -- We don't get near this one, despite
the Niners breaking out of their doldrums, with LW's OT upset of the Seahawks.
Just 11 ppg in 12 of previous 14 outings for SanFran, before those 33 posted in
Seattle. Still on a 4-12 SU slide, with 2 of the 4 wins coming in OT. The Lions
are just as inept, allowing an amazing 36.8 ppg in their last 8 outings, & have a
nice 441-111 RY deficit, as well as a 1-9 SU run. Detroit is 14-1 ATS off a pair
of DD SU/ATS losses, while the Niners are 5-11 ATS off a pulling a SU upset.
DENVER 34 - New Orleans 24 - (4:05) -- Broncos stole one from us LW with
controversial win over the Chargers. Led 21-3, trailed 38-31, & won 39-38 in
the final 0:24, with TD & successful 2-pt try. Cutler has 6 TD passes already,
& the Broncos have a 58-35 FD advantage (34 vs the Chargers). Note the
host covering 8 of Denver's last 9 games. The Saints came from a 438-352 yd
edge, to a 455-250 deficit, & throw in a 295-156 RY deficit for the season. And
they lost 4 of their last 5 dog roles by 10, 25, 31, & 13 pts. Broncs keep it up.
PHILADELPHIA 23 - Pittsburgh 19 - (4:15) -- It didn't take the Steelers long to
come from impressive home wipeout of the Texans, to a squeaking road win
over the Browns, despite another 105 RYs from Parker (243 TY), & a 12-of-19
showing from Roethlisberger (25-of-33 TY). That one pushed the home edge
in Pittsburgh games to 13-5 ATS. Just the opposite with the Eagles, as the
host is just 2-10 ATS of late, but they covered their home opener by 25 pts. Pitt
is 15-3 ATS before a Monday Nighter, but Tomlin is 0-6 ATS away off a SU win.
INDIANAPOLIS 17 - Jacksonville 16 - (4:15) -- Colts avoided their first 0-2 start
in a decade with comeback win over the Vikings. Trailed 15-0 with 1:30 left in
the 3rd, winning 18-15. Still no running game for Indy, which has RY deficits of
183-53 & 180-25 thus far. That's 363-78, folks. Jags obviously not the same
with hurting offensive line, but they did come from a 137-33 RY deficit vs the
Titans, to a slight 98-75 edge vs the Bills. Garrard: 9 sacks already, with his 3
INTs matching his output for the entire '07 season. Jags 11-3 ATS on division
road, while Colts are only 15-23 ATS as Sept hosts, & 13-26 as division HFs.
Cleveland 20 - BALTIMORE 16 - (4:15) -- Browns are still winless, despite high
pre-season expectations. They improved dramatically, defensively, in tight loss
to the Steelers, on the heels of Cowboy embarrassment, in which they were on
the wrong end of 30-11 FD & 488-205 yd differentials. But still not clicking as
they did LY. So note just 8, 14, 20, 10, & 6 pts in their last 5 games (11.6 ppg).
Colts' impressive opening week rout of the Bengals has lost a bit of luster in
light of Cincy's obvious decline. And Baltimore is still on a 4-13-1 ATS slide.
Browns 5-0 ATS in series, & an 18-9 Sept dog. We'll call the mild upset here.
Dallas 33 - GREEN BAY 24 - (8:15 - NBC) -- Packers just keep on doing it, &
now have won 20-of-24 SU, prevailing LW, with no less than 3 TDs in the final
3:34 at Detroit (a pair of TDs on INTs thrown by Lions' Kitna). Rodgers has
filled in for Favre, more than adequately, as he is 18-of-22 & 24-of-38 with 4 TD
passes, & nary a pick. Check 3 TD tosses in the first 23 minutes vs Detroit.
The 'Boys are in off their Monday Nighter with the Eagles, but their opening
week destruction of the Browns serves fair warning as to their dedication off
LY's playoff flop. Dallas is 27-12 as a RF of <7½ pts, & 7-2 ATS vs GreenBay.
MONDAY
SAN DIEGO 31 - New York Jets 13 - (8:35 - ESPN) -- Rematch of '04 Wild Card
meeting. Not many would have imagined the Chargers getting off to an 0-2 start
(SU & ATS), but that's the case, with a pair of incredible losses (on final play, & in
last 0:24) their bane. Nothing wrong with that "O", behind 6 TD passes from
Rivers (377 PYs LW), & Sproles looking super (66-yd TD run, 103-yd KO return
LW). Chance to bust out before the nation, & should do it. Are 12-4 ATS off a SU
loss, 13-6 ATS as a HF, & 13-6 as Monday hosts. Jets are 5-12 ATS on the nondivision
road, & 1-7 ATS in Sept off being upset. Chargers, with plenty to spare.
ATLANTA 24 - Kansas City 16 - (1:00) -- A pair of teams in division sandwiches
here, but circumstances hardly bring that into play. A major drop in Falc output
in just a week, with Ryan going from 9-of-13 to 13-of-33 with 2 INTs in loss to
the Bucs. And check Turner from 220 RYs to just 42. But they did cover their
1st HG by 16 pts. Chiefs: Thigpen for Huard (head) for Croyle (shoulder), but
it makes little difference (13-of-33). And Johnson in off 1.8 ypr effort. Now
eleven straight losses. KC is 5-14 ATS on the NFL road, but 6-0 ATS on the
Sept road off loss vs foe off loss. Visitor 10-2 ATS in Chief contests. Forget it.
BUFFALO 31 - Oakland 17 - (1:00) -- Was it really 18 years ago, when these 2
met for the AFC title? Raiders seem to have gotten what they expected when
they drafted McFadden. Ran for 164 yds (7.8 ypr) at KC, in leading Oakland to
300-55 RY edge. And check 150 RYs in opener (41-14 loss to Denver). So
that Bill "D" can't look past this squad. Buffalo is on a 17-8 spread run, covering
their 1st HG by 21½ pts (Seattle), & sits atop the AFC East, along with the
Patriots. Just 3.8 ypr for Lynch at J'Ville, but QB Edwards a splendid 20-of-25
(39-of-55 for the season). Bills 6-1 ATS favs off a SU win over non-division foe.
TENNESSEE 26 - Houston 13 - (1:00) -- First of 3 division games for the Texans,
who had LW's game with the Ravens postponed. Didn't do much in opening
day slaughter at Pittsburgh, with a 183-75 RY deficit. Thus, Houston now has
a 31-17 ppg deficit in its last 8 RGs. The Titans continue to impress, no matter
the QB, as Collins was an efficient 14-of-21 (1 TD, no INTs), as he filled in for
Young LW. As we've stated many times, Tennessee is a streak team, & is just
15 pts from a 3-13 ATS slide, but 2-0 ATS this yr, with covers of 10 & 18 pts.
Houston is 1-5 ATS on the division road, & 0-4 vs the Titans. Good enuff for us.
NEW YORK GIANTS 31 - Cincinnati 13 - (1:00) -- Hardly seems the spread can
be too high here, as NY is off to a superb start, posting a combined 50-24 FD
edge in its routs of 'Skins & Rams. Now on an 8-0 ATS run. Eli LW: 20-of-29
for 260 yds & 3 TDs. And check Jacobs' 209 RYs to date. Bengals falling
apart. A 406-153 RY deficit, with Palmer just 26-of-52 for only 223 PYs in 2
games, leading Cincy to a total of 17 pts, along with 19 FDs. Now less than 20
pts in 6 of last 7 outings. Ugh! The dog is on 9-2 ATS run in Bengal games (all
upsets). But not here. NY is 10-0 ATS home off a DD cover & scoring 35+ pts.
WASHINGTON 24 - Arizona 23 - (1:00) -- 'Skins got their act together, following
opening week smothering by the Giants. Came from 11 FDs & 209 yds vs NY,
to 25 FDs & 455 yds vs the Saints. And check overcoming a 24-15 deficit after
3 (2 TDs in 2:21 span of 4th). Campbell: 24-of-36 for 321 yds, with Portis &
Moss contributing. But the Rams got another 3 TDs from Warner (all to Boldin),
who is now 38-of-54 for 361 yds & 4 TDs (no INTs). 'Zona on an 18-8 ATS run,
at 32.1 ppg in its last 10 outings, & check its 445-236 yd edge vs the Dolphins.
'Skins just 5-14 ATS HFs, & 8-16 ATS in the 2nd of 2 HGs. We'll take the FG.
NEW ENGLAND 27 - Miami 9 - (1:00) -- A year ago, the Pats were a pure terror,
yet won by just 28-7 here vs the lowly Fish. So, we'll call this somewhere near
that final, as NewEngland is on a mission, with its superior "D" winning the day
so far, allowing only 14 & 12 FDs to the Jets & Chiefs, so why not continue vs
the Dolphs, who've dropped 20-of-21 SU? Cassel is a very decent 29-of-41 in
filling in for Brady thus far (1/0), but Maroney is ailing a bit (shoulder). Miami is
pitiful, with just 60.5 RYpg, & now Henne for Pennington. Pats 16-2 ATS off a
SU win vs division foe off back-to-back losses. Dolphs 3-12 ATS division RDs.
CHICAGO 19 - Tampa Bay 13 - (1:00) -- First HG for the Bears, who've been a
pleasant surprise in the early going, despite blowing a 17-3 lead to the Panthers
LW. Routed the Colts on opening week, behind Forte (215 RYs so far), & QB
Orton, who has yet to toss an INT. Chicago is 4-0-1 ATS lately, with those 4
covers by a combined 74½ pts. Griese for Garcia in Tampa's win over the
Falcons, & check Graham with 207 RYs thus far (8.3 ypr). But the Bay lost its
last 3 RGs by a combined 25½ pts ATS, & is an anemic 3-20 ATS on the nondivision
road, while Chicago is 18-9 ATS as a non-division HF. We lay the FG.
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Football Cheat Sheet
by: Marc Lawrence
Week Four of the 2008 College Football season finds no less than seven undefeated teams that were losing teams last year. Headlining the list at 3-0 are Minnesota, Nebraska and Vanderbilt. Will all three continue their forward move and secure a bowl bid by season’s end, or is it just a mirage?
On the NFL front Baltimore, Buffalo, Carolina and Denver represent four losing teams last year that are spotless this season. Can they maintain their flawless play or will the law of averages come calling sooner than later?
With 5 of the Top 10 ranked teams in the nation residing in the SEC, let’s focus in on that conference in preview the top games on tap on this week’s college and pro football cards. Remember, Series History reflects results in head-to-head battles between the two teams. All results are ATS (Against The Spread) unless noted otherwise.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
LSU at Auburn
Series History: LSU beat Auburn, 28-25, on a 22-yard TD pass with one second remaining last year. Auburn Tigers have covered the three meetings against the LSU Tigers.
LSU Key Stat: Bengals are 2-9 vs SEC foes with revenge.
Auburn Key Stat: Tigers’ opponents have converted 3 third down tries in 46 attempts this season.
You Need To Know: Tuberville is 14-6 SU and 16-4 ATS as a head coach against undefeated SEC teams.
Florida at Tennessee
Series History: Gators gouged the Vols, 59-20 last year. Florida is 3-1 the last four games overall in the series and 3-1 the last four games in Knoxville.
Florida Key Stat: Gators are 1-11 as SEC road favorites off a win.
Tennessee Key Stat: Vols are 8-2-1 as SEC home dogs when playing off a win.
You Need To Know: Vols head coach Phil Fulmer is 12-25-1 when hosting a winning SEC opponent; 8-22 as a favorite and 4-3-1 as a dog.
Georgia at Arizona State
Series History: None between these two teams. Since 1980 the Bulldogs are 3-0-1 SU and 2-2 ATS versus the PAC 10. The Sun Devils are 0-1 SU and ATS versus the SEC.
Georgia Key Stat: Mark Richt is 32-2 SU versus non-conference teams, including 27-0 in regular season games.
Arizona State Key Stat: Overtime losers their previous game are just 24-41-3 ATS when taking on an opponent off a win.
You Need To Know: Preseason No.1 ranked teams are 26-2 SU and 18-9 ATS in Game Four of the season.
NATIONAL FOOBALL LEAGUE
Pittsburgh at Philadelphia
Series History: Eagles are 4-2 SU while the series host is 5-1 ATS. Steelers beat the Eagles, 16-10, in the preseason earlier this year.
Steelers Key Stat: 0-7 as dogs in September off a win versus a .500 or greater opponent.
Eagles Key Stat: Andy Reid is 8-2 in games after allowing more than 32 points, including 5-1 at home.
You Need To Know: Mike Tomlin is 0-6 away in games off a SU win.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis
Series History: Jax lost both game to the Colts last season but are 5-2 the last seven meetings, including 3-1 in its last four in Indy.
Jaguars Key Stat: Jags are 0-2 SU, and ITS (In The Stats) this season.
Colts Key Stat: Indianapolis is 22-1 SU during the first two months of the season.
You Need To Know: Jack Del Rio is 11-2 as a road dog when seeking revenge in his NFL career.
Dallas at Green Bay
Series History: Cowboys beat Packers, 37-27, at home last season. The home team is 9-0 SU and ATS the last nine meetings in this series.
Cowboys Key Stat: Dallas is 1-13 ATS in games when they are undefeated and playing off back-to-back wins against an avenging opponent.
Packers Key Stat: Green Bay has won six straight regular season home games.
You Need To Know: Wade Phillips is 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS on the road off back-to-back wins when facing a foe off a SU and ATS win in his NFL head coaching career.
Other Top Trends for this weekend: Arkansas’ Bobby Petrino is 24-1 SU at home in his college head coaching career…North Carolina and Notre Dame are 2-0 SU but 0-2 ITS (In The Stats) this season... Utah is 17-2 ATS in games after Utah State… The Seattle Seahawks are 11-0 ATS in September versus an opponent off back-to-back losses… The Detroit Lions are 15-2 ATS as dogs of 3 or more points when playing off successive losses of 8 or more points.
This Week’s Super System Says: PLAY ON any college road team in Game Four off their 1st loss of the season if they allowed 36 or more points in the defeat and allow 25 or less points per game on the season.
ATS W-L Record Since 1980: 24-5-1
Play On: Arizona
North Coast Sports
Early Bird GOW...BYU -26
4* Power Plays GOW...North Carolina
Comp Under Dog Pow...Kent State
# 2 Economy Club Play...Rutgers -6....(Last Week...Duke)
Big Dog Pow....Last Week....New Mexico
This Week...New Mexico +10'
PAC 10 Pow....UCLA +3
POWERSWEEP
4* San Francisco 31 over Detroit 20
3* Atlanta 20 over Kansas City 10
2* Miami 13 (+) over Patriots 20
2* Cleveland 14 over Baltimore 10
3* Texans/Titans Under 37'
3* Steelers/Eagles Over 43*
3* Lions/49ers Over 44
2* Browns/Ravens Under 38*
2* Cardinals/Redskins Over 42
Pro Angles: 3* Buffalo, Arizona, Carolina,
System: Tennessee
Statfox Platinum Sheet
NFL
KC +4
AZ +3
Carolina +3
Stl +10.5
Denver -4.5
KANSAS CITY at ATLANTA
The Chiefs look pretty bad this season, don’t they? Only 18 points in two games? A loss at home to the lowly Raiders? Well, there’s no proof at this point that Atlanta is any better. After all, the Falcons “big” win in Week 1 came against a franchise that has lost nine of its L10 games. I’ve seen this type of situation far too many times, where the so called experts will denounce a team only to see them come back with an unexpected strong effort. That is what I’m looking for in Week 3 from Kansas City, and I’m going to take the points to prove it. HC Herm Edwards’ team is backed by one of the better Super Situations that StatFox tracks. It is very successful and very consistent. It reads as follows: Play On - Road teams (KANSAS CITY) - off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite against opponent off a road loss. (27-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.8%, +20.4 units. Rating = 3*). This angle is also 17-4 over the last 2+ seasons. When everything seems to be going against a team, I’ve learned that’s when they most often cover.Play: Kansas City +4
ARIZONA at WASHINGTON
You’ll see from my article on Page 7 regarding unbeaten teams in Week 3 that road teams that are 2-0 and scoring over 25 PPG cover the spread at an 11-6 clip. Arizona fits into that angle this week as the Cardinals have put up 27.0 PPG in the first two wins. They are averaging a scintillating 9.6 yards per pass attempt and Kurt Warner has looked incredibly confident under center. Here they are the underdog at a Washington team that was being scorned for its lack of offense in Week 1. I’ll rarely pass up a chance to take a better offensive team as the underdog.Arizona will be looking for its 7th straight September ATS win in this game. Washington meanwhile, is known for its slow starts, particularly at home (8-21 ATS in home September games). I tend to only take underdogs that I believe can win games outright in the NFL. I’ll take emerging Arizona here.Play: Arizona +3
CAROLINA at MINNESOTA
In another one of the unique angles that a road unbeaten team qualifiesfor in the article on Page 7, Carolina is backed going to Minnesota. The angle indicates that road teams that are 2-0 and allowing more than 15.0 PPG are 14-7 ATS in Week 3. Why might this be? My educated guess is that the oddsmaker jury is still out on this team, since their early stats aren’t that eye catching. This is particularly the case with a team like Carolina, who needed 4th quarter comebacks in both of the first two games to win.However, I know how much confidence means in the NFL, and wins like that bolster momentum early in the season. Speaking of momentum and confidence, a team with NONE at this point is Minnesota. After being everyone’s preseason darling, the Vikings have opened with back-to-back losses, the latest one a painful 18-15 loss to the Colts in which they failed to reach the end zone and gave up a 15-0 lead. Still, they are favored over a 2-0 team. Carolina has always been one of the best road dogs in football (20-5 ATS under Fox), I’ll take my chances with the Panthers again here.Play: Carolina +3
ST LOUIS at SEATTLE
I’m dumbfounded why those making the pointspreads for the NFL still continue to treat Seattle as one of the elite teams in the league. This team has been AWFUL on defense. In fact, the Seahawks have allowed 33.4 PPG in their last five overall, dating back to last season. The last time I checked, teams that allow this many points aren’t worthy of double-digit pointspreads. This line is purely a matter of perception. EVERYONE is down on the Rams at this point, and for good reason,they are struggling on both sides of the ball.However, in games 1 & 2, they played solid clubs, two of the best in the NFC in fact. It is Seattle’s defense that gives them a chance to rebound: Play Against - Home favorites (SEATTLE) - after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games against opponent after gaining 4.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game. (51-22 since 1983.) (69.9%, +26.8 units. Rating = 2*). Don’t be surprised to see St. Louis look much better offensively this week, and put the Rams’ starters in your fantasy football lineup while you’re at it.Play: St Louis +10.5
NEW ORLEANS at DENVER
Turning back to the article on Page 7, the final system for this week,indicating to play on home teams averaging more than 33 PPG thus far, backs both Denver and Green Bay. Unfortunately, the line for the Packers indicating Cowboys game was not out as of presstime, but surely as the likely underdog, host Green Bay has to be considered. In any case, Denver was underdog, still available for me as a Best Bet. Quite frankly, New Orleans is being given far too much credit on this line. The Saints’ defense, which has allowed 28.8 PPG in its L5 and at least 20 points in each game of that stretch,cannot possibly hope to contain Denver’s red-hot offense. QB Jay Cutler is off to a phenomenal start, and riding the momentum of a gift-wrapped but huge victory over San Diego. Mile High is an intimidating place to play for unfamiliar opponents, especially when the hosts are playing well.Play: Denver -4.5
Statfox Platinum Sheet
NCAA
LSU -3
Pitt -1
Oregon -12
Tex A&M +3.5
Tenn +7
LSU at AUBURN
The line for the Auburn-LSU game started as a pick em’ and quickly shot up to LSU by a field goal, with sharp players obviously realizing the early mistake. Auburn won a game 3-2 last week against Mississippi State, and if you did miss it, the game was as awful as the final score indicates. The Tigers may have won, but I can’t see anything that happened to make me believe that they are ready for LSU this week, even on the home turf. Typically, this is a tight game, year in and year out, and it probably will be again this year. However, LSU is far more balanced than Auburn and has more playmakers on offense. Backed by this fabulous money line Super Situation, I’ll play LSU: Play On - A road team vs. the money line (LSU) - after 2 straight wins by 17 or more points against opponent after scoring 14 points or less last game. (28-3 over the last 5 seasons.) (90.3%, +31 units. Rating = 7*) Play: LSU -3
IOWA at PITTSBURGH
Iowa has put up good numbers in the early going while getting off to a 3-0 start. So far the Hawkeyes are outscoring opponents by a 35.0-2.7 average margin.However, this is typical for them as they tend to start the season fast against weak foes at home then stumble later on versus stronger opponents and on the road. This trend illustrates that: Ferentz is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after allowing 6 points or less last game as the coach of IOWA. The average score was IOWA 9.7, OPPONENT 25.2 - (Rating = 1*). In those road games, they are being outscored by over 15 PPG. This week’s game at Pittsburgh will easily be their toughest test to date. While off to a somewhat slow start, the Panthers boast high hopes for ’08 as well as one of the best running backs in the country in LeSean McCoy. Iowa will have its hands full. I’ll back the hosts.Play: Pittsburgh -1
BOISE ST at OREGON
Despite putting up 503 yards of offense last week, Oregon was fortunate to escape Purdue with its unblemished record in place.Anyone who read the Best Bets column was prepared for the Boilermakers to put up a fight though. The reaction to that game and the lack of early explosiveness from Boise State is what has me back on the Ducks this time around. First off, when Oregon’s offense gets rolling, it is difficult to beat: Bellotti is 30-15 ATS (+13.5 Units) after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game as the coach of OREGON. Secondly, this line sets up well for the Ducks: Bellotti is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points as the coach of OREGON. The Broncos didn’t look like their normal selves last week at home against Bowling Green and if not for three key turnovers, the Falcons might have walked off the blue turf with a win. I expect Oregon to parlay the momentum of the OT win at Purdue with another strong effort.Play: Oregon -12
MIAMI at TEXAS A&M
Despite the fact that Miami had its way with Texas A&M last yearat the Orange Bowl, there are two nice StatFox Super Situations that have me backing HC Mike Sherman’s team here as the home underdog: 1) Play On - Home underdogs (TEXAS A&M) - poor rushing team (100-140 RY/game) against a team with an excellent rushing defense (<=100 RY/game). (43-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.9%, +25.4 units. Rating = 3*). This is kind of a contrarian angle in concept, and the interesting thing about it is that A&M should be a better rushing team than it has been. 2) Play On - Home underdogs (TEXAS A&M) - off a road win, in the first half of the season. (50-20 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.4%, +28 units. Rating = 3*). A&M’s win at New Mexico was huge for no other reason than to get off the mat. Miami gained 140 yards of offense at Florida and is simply not ready at thispoint to be a road favorite in one of the toughest enviroments in college football,Kyle Field.Play: Texas A&M +3.5
FLORIDA at TENNESSEE
My esteemed colleague (and brother) Jeff alerted me a couple of weeks ago that home underdogs that go onto win six or more games in a season cover pointspreads at a rate of 64%. That would mean that home dogs that win five or fewer games are less than a 40% proposition. If you think about that conceptually, it basically means to never play home dogs that you don’t think are capable of being in a bowl game at the end of the season. If you stick to this,you’ll only find yourself on the side of competent home dogs, not mutts who are much more likely to get blown out as hosts. Well,you have to figure that Tennessee is going to be a bowl eligible club. Right off the bat that gives us a nearly 2/3 chance of covering the touchdown pointspread here. Add to that the motivation from a 59-20 shellacking by Florida a year ago, and this trend: 1) Meyer is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games off 2 consecutive home wins as the coach of FLORIDA. This might be the toughest game on Florida’s schedule this year. Don’t expect an easy win.Play: Tennessee +7