KEVIN O’NEILL’S -THE MAX
NCAA
Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill
@Auburn (+3) over LSU
It was one ugly game in Starkville Saturday night. Auburn escaped with a 3-2 win (really, it was 3-2). Auburn’s defense was tremendous, but obviously they struggled against Mississippi State’s stout defense. The Tigers gained only 315 yards, missed a pair of field goals, and blew two opportunities in the red zone. It was just one of those nights, and Auburn fans are surely lighting up the talk shows and message boards with vitriol toward new offensive coordinator Tony Franklin. But the Tigers will learn a lot from that contest and move forward. Auburn will not be the only team to play a lowscoring brutal war with Mississippi State this season, and MSU’s stop unit will be one of the better defenses in college football. It was just one of those games, and they got out of their alive. Franklin indicated on Sunday that he would rely more on his instinct in his play calling and will refer less to a prepared script. Look for more of a contribution from backup QB Kodi Burns and more time on the field (and potential home run calls) for WR Terrell Zachery as the Tigers open things up a little bit. LSU has scored only 7, 9, and 3 points on their last three visits here. And they really haven’t even started playing yet this season. A home postponement against Troy sandwiched between home “friendlies” against Appalachian State and North Texas is all that LSU has been involved in this season. Of course, they are the defending national champions, and it isn’t like their 12 returning starters haven’t been around the block a time or two. And it isn’t as if LSU lacks talent. But Auburn’s defensive ability (holding Mississippi State to 116 total yards), and the intensity that can only be found in big SEC night games will be a major culture shock for the inexperienced LSU quarterbacks. Neither Andrew Hatch nor Jarrett Lee has experience in an environment like this one. They are completely unproven. Darry Beckwith’s knee injury leaves the LSU linebacking corps very inexperienced, as he was the only returning starter on that unit. Home dogs that allowed a conference opponent 2.1 yards per play in their last game are probably a pretty good play when hosting teams led by inexperienced quarterbacks, don’t you think? Take the points as Auburn finds a way to win in a brutal, hard-hitting contest. Auburn by 3.
Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill
@North Carolina (-1½) over Virginia Tech
North Carolina rolled Rutgers 40-12 on Thursday night, and we got there with them on our phone service. As you know from reading our annual, we think highly of the Tar Heels chances this season. They have some formidable young talent, have tremendous receiving talents for emerging QB TJ Yates to connect with, and while ex-NFL coaches are failing from coast to coast, Butch Davis was a success in college before he tanked with the Cleveland Browns. UNC struggled in their first game against McNeese State (a team that lost only once last year and runs a highly effective spread offense) but really came together in their win over Rutgers. This is a team to watch. Virginia Tech is really struggling offensively. They were very fortunate to beat Georgia Tech. The Hokies were outgained 388-247 and needed a couple of questionable penalties after 3rd and long plays to keep their scoring drive alive. If it wasn’t for the 3-0 Gobbler turnover edge the Yellow Jackets would likely have returned to Atlanta with a victory. You’re aware of their struggles in their loss vs. East Carolina as well. This is the first game that the Hokies will play in hostile territory, as ECU’s “home game” in Charlotte was actually played much closer to Blacksburg than Greenville and took place in front of mostly Hokie partisans. While UNC will never be accused of having the most intense crowd in college football, there is an escalating interest in the Heels football program and they’ll enjoy a legit home field edge here. Virginia Tech’s offense is really struggling, leading to a radio call in show mini-controversy where Frank Beamer passionately defended his program and his offensive coordinator. But there’s no getting around the fact that the VT can’t move the ball right now. 58 plays for 244 yards against East Carolina and a nearly identical 61 plays for 247 yards against Georgia Tech. That’s 4.2 yards per play against their two 1-A opponents, with a different starting QB in each game. Virginia Tech has the better defense, but how do they score? Defense and specialteams? Maybe. But an athletic edge was not evident against East Carolina and Georgia Tech. In his first start against a 1-A opponent this year, QB Tyrod Taylor passed only 15 times; wile the coaches called 46 running plays. If Frank Beamer doesn’t trust Taylor, why should we? North Carolina by 7.
Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik
Wake Forest (+4½) @ Florida St.
Florida State has gotten fat and happy (and somehow ranked?) off of two blowout wins against 1AA squads Chattanooga and Western Carolina, and are now somehow laying points to a team that has beaten them two straight seasons and won 5 more conference game than the Seminoles during that span. Sure, recruiting ratings keep telling us that FSU is bringing in top talent, but it surely is not showing it on the field, as they are off back-to-back 7-6 seasons, and have not won 10 games in a season since 2003. On the opposite side of the spectrum is Jim Grobe and Wake Forest, who supposedly bring in average talent, but obviously know what to do with it. This is Grobe’s most talented team yet, especially on the defensive side of the ball, and we know he and his staff know how to coach players up. FSU sophomore QB Christian Ponder somehow beat out senior Drew Weatherford, and is the starter for this one. He may be in for a rude awakening against a Demon Deacons defense that returns its entire back 7 after leading the NCAA with 8 defensive touchdowns last season. That defense is off to a fast start already this season, forcing 8 turnovers in two games. The other question I have with the ‘Noles is leadership. They have, on paper, an all-star coaching staff, but they often look poorly coached and locker room problems have surfaced the last couple of seasons. Offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher is supposed to take over when Bobby Bowden retires, but one gets the feeling that has led to a bit of an awkward situation among the staff and players. The two question marks I just listed for FSU are areas of strength for Wake Forest. Grobe is one of college football’s best head coaches, and crafty QB Skinner is an extension of him. Skinner makes play after play with excellent football IQ and accuracy, if not a big arm. He has now started 25 games at Wake (compared to two for FSU’s Ponder, both against 1AA teams), and as smart and poised as he was as a freshman, he is tough as nails now. The final advantage for Wake is their ace special teams, led by NFL caliber K/P Sam Swank. FSU, on the other hand, lost SR. specialist Graham Gano to injury, and his replacement, sophomore Zach Hobby, has missed two field goals and two extra points thus far. The punting is handled by a true frosh as well, and he obviously has not had many chances in the first two games. Expect Wake to win the battle of special teams by even a bigger margin than they usually do. Wake Forest is one of college football’s top underdogs at 28-14-2 ATS when taking points under Grobe. The Noles, on the other hand, continue to be overrated by the betting public, as evidenced by their 15-24 ATS record as a home favorite since 2001. Make FSU with Ponder beat us before we believe the hype. Wake Forest by 3
Selection and analysis by Matty Baiungo
Utah (-7½) over @Air Force
Perception meets reality here. Both teams enter without a loss (yet), which makes this line much shorter than it should be. Utah is a legit top 15 team. They’ve got a very good quarterback in Brian Johnson, one of the toughest defenses in the country, and a veteran group of guys that know how to win. On the other hand, Air Force is living off last year’s reputation, when in fact the talent is lesser. Head coach Troy Calhoun took over for the legendary Fisher DeBerry last year, and he inherited a good team with a talented quarterback (Shaun Carney) that led the Falcons to a bowl game. But Carney has graduated, and this year’s team is made up of different parts, not equal to last year. And their 3-0 start may be giving them a false sense of security, but they’ll get a reality check in this game. It’s no secret that Air Force is a one trick pony to the run, even though Calhoun’s plans were to switch to more of a passing attack upon his hire. The triple option is tough to stop even with the defense knowing what’s coming. But you have to mix in a pass every now and then just to keep opposing defenses honest, something Air Force did effectively last year. That hasn’t been the case over their first three games so far with 210 rushing attempts to just 23 passing attempts. And last week at Houston, quarterback Shea Smith was 0 for 7 throwing the ball. That’s not a misprint. Smith did not complete a single pass, which is just unfathomable for a major college football team. Houston also out-yarded the Force by 154 yards (534-380) and made 9 more first downs yet still lost. That box score is simply wacky, and a repeat of that performance here gets Air Force smoked in this game. Utah is loaded with offensive firepower, and all of the skill positions are filled with seniors. The Utes have been waiting for this game after losing 20-12 as a 7-point home favorite to Air Force last year. QB Brian Johnson did not play in that game because of a separated shoulder, and his presence alone will make the outcome much different. Johnson loves where his team is at: "I love the attitude of this team," he said. "I love the edge we are practicing with every day." Utah is focused on this conference game and there are no look ahead worries with Weber St on deck. With this line in the single digits, the perception is that Air Force is as good as their 3- 0 record indicates. But the reality is just the opposite, they are not that good. They’ve beaten three bad teams and are taking a huge step up in class here. Utah by 14.
Selection and analysis by Matty Baiungo
@Tennessee (+7½) over Florida
Knee jerking to SEC home underdogs is not a bad strategy, and that’s exactly what I did when I first saw the line for this game. Taking a full touchdown with a team that has won 85% (85-16) of their home games over the last 16 years is simply way too good to pass up. Now I do not care for head coach Phil Fulmer all that much. Much of Fulmer’s success can certainly be credited to his good friend, former offensive coordinator David Cutcliffe (now at Duke). It was Cutcliffe, not Fulmer who was responsible for the potent Tennessee offenses of the late 90’s. And when things went sour in 2005, Fulmer lured Cutcliffe back to Knoxville in order to save his job. But Tennessee has no shot to win this game in a shootout, so Cutcliffe’s absence shouldn’t matter much. So we’ll lean on one of the best defensive coordinators in the country, John Chavis, to come up with a nice game plan to try and contain Florida. Tennessee opened their season by handing UCLA an undeserving win. The Vols out-played the Bruins at the line of scrimmage holding them to just 29 yards on the ground while forcing four turnovers yet they still couldn’t get the win. And one might see that as a negative, especially after UCLA got waxed last week by BYU (59-0). But I really liked how Tennessee bounced back off their bye and drilled UAB on Saturday. The Vols erased the LA fiasco by doubling the Blazers in yardage and totally shutting them down with their defense. And the stop unit will have to come up big once again here against the Gators, which is quite possible considering Florida’s tendencies. Since Urban Meyer took over Florida in 2005, the Gators are just 7-5 straight up on the road with the seven wins coming by 21, 1, 6, 7, 6, 8 and 20 points. And they haven’t played nearly as good on the road as they have at home. Their offensive and defensive numbers both drop dramatically to the tune of double digits. They score 16 points per game less on the road and they allow close to 12 points per game more on the road. And that’s the main reason why they’ve struggled when laying points away from Gainesville. In twelve true road games under Meyer, Florida is just 4-8 against the spread including a miserable 2-8 as a road favorite. That also includes a 2-7 spread mark in SEC road games when laying points. Aside from the above, there are really no negatives on Florida. But they embarrassed Tennessee last year by 39 points (59- 20), and it was Fulmer’s biggest margin of defeat.Neyland Stadium will be packed with over 100,000 fans clad in burnt orange looking to return the favor. Game comes down to the wire. Florida by only 1.
Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare
Georgia (–7) over @Arizona State
The Georgia Bulldogs are a very good football team. They didn't even have to show up in Tempe and they beat Arizona State. How else to explain ASU's shocking, inexplicable 23-20 overtime loss to a bad UNLV team on Saturday? The Sun Devils insisted all week they weren't overlooking the Rebels and taking a sneak peek at the Georgia game, to a national television audience, to the ESPN "College GameDay" crew coming to town. That might be a pretty good handicapping idea right there: find out where the GameDay crew is going to be next week and bet against that school. College kids are emotionally charged animals. When facing nationally prominent teams like Georgia, young men need something to convince themselves either that winning is possible or that the opponent deserves their opprobrium. Shutout revenge is a good example of the latter; Notre Dame used this effectively last weekend against Michigan. But Arizona State hasn't played Georgia before. So they need something else. Unfortunately any good feeling the Sun Devils might have had coming into this game were extinguished last week. Losing at home as a 24-point favorite does not boost but deflates the ego. The Sun Devils apply to a 49-117 ATS system based on this principle. Teams in this spot went 2-8 ATS in 2007 and failed to cover by more than a touchdown per game.You might think last week's grueling 14-7 win over conference rival South Carolina would take some of the wind out of Georgia's sails. Actually low scoring wins are usually a boost to the morale, both at the college and pro level. A 187-112 ATS system applies to Georgia based on this idea. I'm often skeptical of coaching-based systems. The sample size is very small, and handicappers never take into account the average cover margin on these things. But Marc Richt has an ATS personality active here that is powerful on both counts. Under Richt the Bulldogs are 18-8 ATS as a road dog or fave up to -7.5. That is good, but what is better is the average cover margin; over 7 points per game. That kind of number is rare in coaching trends with any kind of sample size at all. And it fits nicely with Richt's overall personality. He is just 40% ATS at home as a double-digit favorite. Richt prefers to lighten up on the gas at home when the game looks to be easy, and saves his motivational motor for the competitive road games. Under Marc Richt's tenure, Georgia’s straight up records are 32-2 against non-conference teams and 26-4 in an opponent's stadium. I'll side with the betting public and lay the points with Georgia. Georgia by 13.
Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Arkansas State (-5) over MTSU
The Sun Belt is the worst conference in Division 1-A. But they’ve been making some noise this season, thanks to these two clubs. Both have already beaten BCS conference opponents, with Arkansas State winning at Texas A&M and Middle Tennessee State notching a home upset over Maryland. And then they both came up just short against bigger name opposition this week. But how they come out of those games is completely different.After Arkansas State tossed an interception while driving in an evenly played 27-24 loss to Southern Miss, ASU’s fine head coach Steve Roberts was proud of his team. “We played very, very well and I’m not disappointed in our kids’ effort. I thought we played very hard and showed a lot of maturity and resiliency during the course of the ball game. We fought back from 10 down and 14 down...we came back and got ourselves and the crowd back into the game.” MTSU, with a bad home loss against Troy before that home win over Maryland, went up to Lexington and took Kentucky to the wire, completing a deflected 61-yard Hail Mary pass that saw WR Eldred King dragged down on the one-yard line as time expired in a 20-14 loss. Disappointed at a penalty that negated a long returned FG block and emotional over the near miss, MTSU coach Rick Stockstill asked reporters “how would you feel if you just had your guts ripped out?” So in consecutive weeks, MTSU has had their biggest win in program history, and then followed that up with a heartbreaking loss. Now Stockstill is supposed to get his team up for a trip to Jonesboro,Arkansas to take on a team that they’ve beaten by a combined 152-41 in the last four years. Arkansas State, who has already won at Texas A&M this season, was a very popular play against Southern Missisippi. Oftentimes it pays to go with the teams that were failed “wise guy” move from the week before. And why was ASU so supported by professional bettors? The Red Wolves (formerly Indians) running game is extraordinary. ASU gains 7.1 yards per rush, and if you take away their game against Texas Southern and look just at A&M and Southern Miss, they average 5.2 yards per rush.MTSU was outrushed 102-31 at Kentucky.ASU is playing a strong brand of football, is off a respectable loss they can build from, and will likely be able to control the line of scrimmage against a team that will have trouble getting up for this game for a multitude of reasons. Lay the points with the Red Wolves. ASU by 11.
KEVIN O’NEILL’S -THE MAX
NFL
Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare
Chiefs (+4½) over @Falcons
About the only reason a sane handicapper could like the Chiefs here is technical. The Falcons own most every edge possible in the stats for this game. QB Brodie Croyle is out for 3-4 weeks with a separated shoulder. So KC trotted out retread Damon Huard to play last Sunday. Huard suffered an apparent neck injury (questionable for this week) and was replaced by the anonymous Tyler Thigpen. KC went 3-andout on their first three series under Thigpen. It got so bad the Chiefs tried an option attack with former practice squad receiver Marques Hagans at QB. It didn't work either. Overall the KC air attack is averaging well under 5 yards per attempt. The Chiefs D gave up 300 yards on the ground to Oakland last week even though the Raiders' had to rely mostly on their 2nd and 3rd string tailbacks. Off its miserable start the Chiefs pop from an 81-37 ATS road team bounceback system that already had its first winner of the season (and an LTS winner too!) on Oakland over Kansas City last Sunday. As a general rule I've learned to stay away from systems involving NFL teams at the 0.500 mark like Atlanta. They seem to be inherently unpredictable teams. Much of a team's self-identity is dependent on their record and at 0.500 their self-image is unclear. But I do have a couple of time-tested systems that work well with these teams and the Falcons apply to one of them. Teams out of this system are 95-156 ATS including 3-7 ATS in 2007. I also have the Falcons in a 34-84 ATS system that plays against teams in a role reversal: Atlanta is lined here as a favorite after being an underdog in its first two games. Even though they are 1-1 on the season the Falcons like the Chiefs are mired in their division's basement position. And a big reason I like the Chiefs here is a 94-48 ATS system that picks a side in games where both teams are divisional cellar dwellers. This system went 9-1 ATS in 2007. Without my technical material I would agree with the early betting action on this game - heavily tilted towards Atlanta. But that is precisely why I rely on my technical approach. It gives me the historical support I need to take truly ugly teams like Kansas City. Take the points. Kansas City by 3
Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Cardinals (+3) over @Redskins
Both of these teams are off of similarly statistically dominating wins. Cardinals won yardage 445-236 over the Dolphins. Redskins won yardage 455-250 over a Saints team that threw in a clunker. But it was a nice comeback win for the Redskins, trailing 24-15 midway through the 4th and winning. Santana Moss had a rookie on him much of the day, and the result was 164 yards receiving (he also had a 27 yard run). Jason Campbell hit two-thirds of his passes for nearly 9 yards per completion. But really, how impressed are we supposed to be when you beat a soft team like New Orleans on your home field? Shouldn’t it be expected? And you certainly should expect to beat a Saints team when in Week 2 of the season injuries have New Orleans finishing the game with three rookies and a couple of more no-accounters on the field on defense. And Charles Grant didn’t feel like playing all that hard after excelling in the opener. The Saints offensive line played poorly as well. Obviously some of these shortcomings had to do with the prowess of the Redskins. But Washington was playing with great desperation (and extra rest) off of their opening Thursday night disaster at the Giants. It was a good spot for them against a soft team but they still needed a comeback, despite the 205-yard edge and the 3-1 turnover advantage. The Cardinals needed no comebacks, dominating a subpar Miami team. The Cards led 31-3 after 3 quarters, and none of their scores were fluky. Arizona enjoyed TD drives of 69, 92, 71, and 80 yards, with a 60-yard FG drive sandwiched in between. Amidst all the Sunday afternoon dramatics, Kurt Warner’s performance was lost in the shuffle. Bothered by hand problems for so long, you have to think that Warner is feeling well again. After two games he’s completing 70% of his passes, averaging over 10 yards per attempt, and has 4 TD passes and no interceptions. Importantly, he also has no fumbles, a critical stat for him due to his past fumbling problems (49 fumbles in his previous 36 starts over 6 seasons). With both teams off of satisfying wins, neither holds a real mental edge. The thought here is that the Cardinals have more weapons than the Redskins, and will also benefit from the poor special teams play of Washington (botched hold on FG, punt return for TD allowed, fumbled punt, poor punting overall on Sunday). Arizona has been a poor traveling dog in recent years (actually, more than just recent years) but in most of those games have had the inferior team. That’s not the case here. Take the points with the better club. Cardinals by 3.
Selection and analysis by Matty Baiungo
Panthers (+3½) over @Vikings
Year in, and year out, one particular NFL team seems to get a lot of hype over the summer as being the “sleeper” Super Bowl contender. This year’s sexy pick was Minnesota. The Vikings were a consensus pick to win the NFC North, and many had their reservations made for Tampa. But isn’t it funny how things all of a sudden change once the actual playing on the field begins? The Vikings sit at 0-2 after losing their opener at divisional rival Green Bay and giving away their latest with Sunday’s choke job at the hands of Peyton Manning and the Colts. Holding a 15-0 lead with 16:24 to play, the Vikes were on cruise control looking to even their record at one. But playing not to lose did them in. The play calling became predictive. Hand off to Peterson on first and second down, rollout pass on 3rd, and then punt on 4th down. Instead of putting the game away, head coach Brad Childress elected to be conservative which allowed the Colts to hang around long enough to steal the win. And after such a deflating loss, how does Minnesota recover? Don’t think they can mentally, and if last week’s box score is any indication, they can’t on the football field either. Ryan Longwell was responsible for all of their points; he kicked 5 field goals. They had less than 300 yards of total offense and quarterback Tarvaris Jackson was again dreadful in the passing game. He completed 14 of 24 for an anemic 119 yards, just 4.4 yards per pass. Overall, the Vikings offense gained only 4.8 yards per play. Defensively, they were once again solid against the run holding the Colts to a laughable 25 yards on the ground. But their weak secondary gave up big chunks of yardage to the tune of 296 yards on 6.7 yards per pass play. Minnesota has a great rushing attack with Adrian Peterson, but their passing game is awful, and the way to win NFL games recently is through the air. Unless the passing game improves, they’ll be in for a long, long season. Carolina’s win two games back at San Diego came as no surprise to us. We used the Panthers in this space, and a touchdown on the last play of the game gave them the 26-24 win. They turned in another gutsy win on Sunday, once again coming back (down 17-3) to beat the Bears 20-17. And if you remember back to their Super Bowl year of 2003, the Panthers won a lot of close games. They are finally healthy on offense, and they’ll welcome back Steve Smith who returns from his suspension. While this game means a lot more to Minnesota as far as the big picture goes, they just do not look good on the field. Adding their questionable mental state to the equation makes them an even dicer proposition knowing Carolina is 32-15 when getting points under John Fox. Panthers by 3.
Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Jaguars (+5½) over @Colts
The Jaguars had big plans for this season, and deservedly so, as they were a very good team last year (average yardage 357-314), won a playoff game at Pittsburgh, and gave the Patriots a good game before failing in Foxborough the following week. But the Jags have gotten off to a rotten start, losing a pair of winnable games to get off to an 0-2 beginning. Like their opening loss in Nashville, this one was frustrating. After tossing an interception in the end zone to end the half, the Jags controlled the third quarter, holding the ball for all but four plays and taking a 13-10 lead. But they lacked explosiveness, with no gain from scrimmage of longer than 15 yards and no passes being thrown further than 25 yards downfield (that one fell incomplete in the end zone). Look for a more aggressive offense from the Jags this week. The Colts won impressively in comeback fashion despite a complete inability to run the ball due to a beat up offensive line. They finished the game Sunday with a backup, two rookies, and a guard playing tackle who had practiced at tackle for only three snaps all week. And then cap it all off with the fact that their offensive line coach wasn’t there as he recovers from knee replacement surgery. With only 25 yards on 19 carries, it was all on Peyton Manning and he came through in dramatic fashion, willing Indy back from a 15-0 deficit late in the third quarter. That was a satisfying win, but Indianapolis is obviously far from the dominating club that they’ve been in the past. Word in Indy is that the new building, while nice as can be, is far from intimidating. The RCA Dome provided more impact from the fans and a lot more noise. One team that hasn’t been terribly bothered by the noise has been these Jaguars, as they are a half-point away from being undefeated to the pointspread in their previous four visits to the Circle City, with all of those games against Colts teams that seemed more impressive than this one. The Jaguars will be aggressive, and poised to play their absolute best to avoid a season-killing 0-3 start. This is a lot of points to take from a Colts team with problems with their offensive line, running game, run defense, and their typical abominable special teams (they’re a favorite to have the worst combined kick and punt coverage teams in the league, both offensively and defensively). Jaguars by 1.
Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik
Browns @ Ravens Under 38.5
The league seems to have caught up to the Browns offense this season, and although a lot of that can be attributed to the fact that they have faced two very good defenses thus far in Pittsburgh and Dallas, there is certainly no reprieve this week against the Ravens stop unit. Baltimore has had a couple of days of extra preparation time here after holding Cincinnati to 220 yards and 3 offensive points in the opener. The Ravens’ defense can see the weakness in this division and will be on a mission after finally proving to be human last season. Their veterans know that they are picked to be among the worst teams in this league, and I expect that to add fuel to their fire. Many of Baltimore’s problems last season were due to injuries and fatigue down the stretch. They were on the field constantly due to such poor offensive play. That may again be the case later this season, but for now I expect them to be flying to the ball and making an impact when they get there. They know they have to carry this team again, and they have won a lot of games the past decade despite having an unproductive offense. Rookie QB Joe Flacco has impressed a lot of people, but this will be his second game removed from NCAA 1AA. Baltimore will continue to ease him in with a run-based attack trying to win games with their defense and special teams. There are not a lot of weapons for him to begin with, so they are not going to force things. Their only two touchdowns against the hapless, poor-tackling Bengals D in the opener came on a long reverse and a long scramble by Flacco. Even against a questionable defense like Cleveland, expect a lot of 3 and outs as the Ravens play for field position.The Browns offense, one of the league’s best last season, has produced 413 yards and 16 points in two games. The magic has worn off for last year’s miracle man, Derek Anderson, and the Ravens with the extra time to prepare, certainly will give him some different looks. Anderson’s accuracy has never been his strength, but you only need to be so accurate when throwing to Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow. Although the same weapons are there from last season, Anderson’s play has been worse. Cleveland’s D was torched by Dallas in the opener, but played well against Pittsburgh, and gets a break against the weak Raven offense today. Anything on the other side of key numbers 37 and 38 looks safe in any Baltimore game, at least for the first half of the season. Play UNDER
THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA!!!
TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK
BYU That was a real warning shot fired by BYU a week ago vs. UCLA, but we didn’t need any extra convincing to give the Cougars a solid recommendation at Provo for their Saturday battle vs. struggling Wyoming. BYU has owned this series since losing to HC Joe Glenn’s first Cowboy team in 2003, winning and covering the last 4 meetings, all by double-digit margins. And the Cougs have been reliable as home chalk lately, too, covering 9 of their last 12 in that role. Meanwhile, Wyo continues on an extended pointspread slide, standing 0-10-1 vs. the number its last 11 on the board, and 2-15-1 its last 18 against the spread.
HOUSTON There are several “go against” situations in college football, and Colorado State certainly seems one of those stragglers. The Rams have been laboring lately, especially vs. the line at home, covering just 4 of their last 12 at Fort Collins, and are in tough again Saturday afternoon when potent Houston comes calling. And since 2003, the Rams have covered only 1 of 5 as a home dog, and overall stand a subpar 19-30 vs. the number their last 49 on the board. As for the Cougars, they’ve capitalized on most of their recent chances as road chalk, covering 5 of their last 7 in that role.
SAN JOSE STATE About this time each season, we want to begin paying special attention to a couple of weekly calculations highlighted in our Systems Spotlight feature, those being Pointspread Streaks and “AFS” (Away from Spread). And each of those identify San Jose State as a team to watch as the Spartans make the short trip up the Bayshore Freeway for their annual battle with nearby Stanford Saturday night. San Jose could be in the early stages of an extending pointspread uptick, covering its first 2 games on the board this season, and the Spartans have recorded a noteworthy +11.50 “AFS” mark their last two games. Meanwhile, the Cardinal has long underachieved vs. the number at home, dropping 14 of its last 21 vs. the line on the Farm since mid ’04.
ARIZONA Last week’s disappointing loss at New Mexico might be a temporary blip on the Arizona radar screen, as the Wildcats look to get back to their winning ways Saturday at the Rose Bowl vs. shellshocked UCLA. Remember, UA had covered 6 straight before its slip-up vs. the Lobos. And if the Cats are getting any points this wwek, they’ll be a featured recommendation under HC Mike Stoops in the College Coach as Underdog system (thanks to their 16-7-1 spread mark their last 24 as the “short”). As for the reeling Bruins, note their poor –20.00 “AFS” mark the last two games after that shellacking absorbed vs. BYU.
N.Y. GIANTS It’s about time we start showing a bit of respect to the world champs! After all, the New York Giants haven’t failed to cover a pointspread since early last December, covering 8 in a row since. Taking it back a bit further, the G-Men are now 10-1 vs. the number their last 11 on the board, and 16-4 their last 20 against the line. So, why not recommend them Sunday at the Meadowlands vs. struggling Cincinnati? For the Bengals, it’s been a nightmarish beginning to the campaign,failing to cover their first 2 out of the chute, and their spread mark is a poor 4-11 their last 15 against the number dating to early last season.
N.O.-DENVER “OVER” There’s no secret about the “totals” patterns of New Orleans and Denver lately. They’ve both been going “over” a lot, which figures to happen again in Sunday’s encounter at Invesco Field. As for the Saints, they’re “over” 15 of their last 21 overall, while the Broncos are “over” 18 of their last 23. Denver is also “over” 13-5 its last 18 as host.
TECHNICIAN'S CORNER
WEST VIRGINIA at COLORADO (Thursday, September 18)…WVU had been good visiting chalk for Rodriguez (9-3-1 last 3 years), but Stewart failed his first chance in role miserably vs.ECU. Tech edge-slight to WVU, based on extended trends. BAYLOR at UCONN (Friday, September 19)…Art Briles was 5-2 as visiting dog the past three years with UH. Edsall’s extended chalk marks are good (7-2 since ’06, 10-3 since ’05, 18-7-1 since ’03).Tech edge-slight to UConn, based on extended trends.
TEMPLE at PENN STATE…Shades has had a few close calls in career vs. Owls but not the last 2 years, winning and covering by a combined 78-0. Vicious Shades 12-3 vs. line last 15 as DD chalk.But Owls off to 2-0 start vs. line TY as gradual improvement continues under Al Golden. Tech edge-slight to Shades, based on DD chalk mark.
UCF at BOSTON COLLEGE…O’Leary now 5-1 vs. line his last 6 as dog. BC on 4-9 spread run last 13 as chalk and 2-6 last 8 on board for Jags after quick break from gate last season. Tech edge-UCF, based on team trends.
OHIO at NORTHWESTERN… Cats covered opener as home chalk vs. Cuse but NU still just 3-9 laying points at Evanston since ’03. Solich has now covered last 3 as road dog after getting W in pair of those to open campaign, and 7-3 as road dog since ’06.Tech edge-Solich, based on team trends.
MIAMI-OHIO at CINCINNATI…Local rivals. Edge the past two years to Cincy with decisive wins and covers, and Cincy has also covered 4 of last 5 meetings. RedHawks, however, 7-1 vs. line last 8 as road dog. Tech edge-slight to Miami-O, team trends.
VANDY at OLE MISS…Vandy has covered 6 of last 7 in series,and Bobby Johnson covered both vs. Houston Nutt (when at Arkansas) in ’05 & ’06. Dores 11-3 as road dog since ’05, 16-7 since ’03, and 9-3 last 10 as SEC road dog. Tech edge-Vandy,based on team and series trends.
MISSISSIPPI STATE at GEORGIA TECH…Sly Croom 7-2-1 vs.line last 10 as road dog and 9-3-1 vs. line last 13 away.. Tech edge-slight to Sly Croom, based on team trends.
WYOMING at BYU…BYU has dominated matters since losing to Joe Glenn’s first Wyo team back in ’03. Since then, Cougs have won and covered last 4, all by DD margins. Bronco 9-3 vs. line as home chalk since ’06. Cowboys on 0-10-1 spread run dating to early ’07 and 2-15-1 vs. number last 18 on board! Tech edge-BYU, based on series and team trends.
LSU at AUBURN…Brutally close series of late, the last 4 all decided by 6 or fewer, and that 30-24 LSU win LY was decided on TD with 1 second left in game! Auburn has covered the last 3 meetings and has beaten LSU the last four times these two have tussled at Jordan-Hare. Les Miles only 2-6-1 vs. line as visitor the last two seasons. Tech edge-Auburn, especially if dog,based on team and recent series trends.
ALABAMA at ARKANSAS…Close series the last couple of years, the last 2 decided by 4 points total. Road team has covered last 3 meetings, though Arkansas has covered 4 of last 5 in series.Bama 2-7 as chalk for Nick since LY, 6-20 overall last 26 as chalk dating to late ’04. Tech edge-Arkansas, based on Bama chalk negatives.
MARSHALL at SOUTHERN MISS…Herd road woes continue,just 4-19 vs. line last 23 away from Huntington. Tech edge-USM,based on team trends.
HOUSTON at COLORADO STATE…CSU only 3-7 vs. line last 10 at Fort Collins, 1-3 as home dog since ’06. Tech edge-UH, based on recent CSU negatives.
RUTGERS at NAVY…Rutgers own edge lately, winning and covering last 3 and 6 of last 7 in series. Mids only 1-4 vs. line at Annapolis LY, 2-7 since ’06, although Navy still 16-7-1 as dog since ’03 (but 0-2 in dog role vs. Scarlet Knights that span). Schiano was 3-0 as chalk away from home LY. Tech edge-Rutgers, based on team and series trends.
VIRGINIA TECH at NORTH CAROLINA…Hokies have won and covered last 6 as ACC visitor. Tech edge-Beamer, based on team trends.
IOWA at PITTSBURGH…Hawkeyes just 2-8 vs. line as visitor since ’06, 4-11 vs. number as visitor since ’05. If Wannstedt chalk,note 1-8 spread mark last 9 in role. Tech edge-slight to Iowa,based on Wannstedt chalk woes.
WAKE FOREST at FLORIDA STATE…Wake has won last 2 SU vs. FSU and has covered last 4 and 8 of last 10 in series. Grobe 14- 6 as short since ’05, 22-12 since ’03. Bowden 4-8 vs. line as Tallahassee chalk since ’06, 5-11 in role since ’05. Tech edge- Wake, based on team and series trends.
NOTRE DAME at MICHIGAN STATE…Road team 6-0-1 vs. line last 7 in series. Tech edge-slight to ND, based on series trends.
BOISE STATE at OREGON…Ducks 7-1 vs. line as Autzen Stadium chalk since ’07, 14-3 as home chalk since ’05. Boise 6-10-1 vs. spread as visitor since ’05. Tech edge-Oregon, based on team trends.
UTAH at AIR FORCE…Road team has covered last 6 and 8 of last 9 in series. Force, however, 5-0 vs. line at home under Calhoun and 11-3 vs. line since he took over LY. Tech edge-slight to AFA, based on team trends.
NEW MEXICO at TULSA…Golden Hurricane has won and covered big its first 2 TY and has covered last 3 since the end of ’07. Tulsa has covered first 2 as DD chalk in ’08 but was 0-5 in role LY. Lobos 3-7 vs. line last 10 on board. Tech edge-Tulsa, based on recent trends.
BALL STATE at INDIANA…Home team has covered the last 2 years in series, and Hoosiers 7–1 as home chalk since ’03 (0-1 TY,however). But Cards 13-3 vs. line last 16 away, 7-2 as visiting dog since ’06. Tech edge-slight to Ball State, based on team trends.
CENTRAL MICHIGAN at PURDUE…These two getting used to one another, with their third meeting since last season. Purdue won both LY but only covered the first meeting, as Chips covered wild bowl game. Chips now 1-4 as visiting dog since LY. Tiller was 3-2 as Ross-Ade chalk LY but is only 4-9 vs. line in role since ’05. Tech edge-slight to Purdue, based on team trends.
AKRON at ARMY…Army 3-7 as dog for Stan Brock, 4-10 vs. number at West Point since ’05. Black Knights also a mere 7-17 vs. number last 24 on board. Tech edge-Akron, based on team trends.
EASTERN MICHIGAN at MARYLAND…EMU only 4-10 vs. linelast 14 as dog. Ralph, however, just 1-7 vs. line as home chalk since ’05, and a mere 5-12 vs. line last 17 on board. Tech edgeslight to EMU, based on Fridge negatives.
MIAMI-FLORIDA at TEXAS A&M…Shannon just 4-9 vs. line since taking over at Miami LY, although one of those covers was easy home win over A&M LY. If Canes road chalk note 1-6 mark in role since ’05. Tech edge-slight to A&M, based on extended Miami negatives.
EAST CAROLINA at NC STATE…Dog has won and covered the last two seasons. But Skip 28-12 overall vs. line at ECU since ‘05.Wolfpack and just 9-23 last 32 vs. line at Raleigh. Tech edge-ECU,based on team trends.
BUFFALO at MISSOURI…Tigers have covered their last 8 vs.non-Big XII opposition. Tigers 10-2 vs. line as chalk since. Tech edge-Mizzou, based on team trends.
FRESNO STATE at TOLEDO…FSU 2-8 as DD chalk since ’06 (1-3 LY), 0-3 as DD road chalk since ’06. Toledo has been better at Glass Bowl lately for Amstutz, at least opposed to road mark, and home team 19-7 vs. line last 25 Rocket games on board. Tech edge-slight to Toledo, based on team trends.
RICE at TEXAS…Texas has punished Rice the last 3 years,scoring 51 or more on each occasion and covering all of those, covering 34-point-or-more lines in each. Mack has covered first 2 in ’08 laying 20+. Tech edge-Texas, based on series trends.
IDAHO at UTAH STATE…Idaho only 1-10 vs. line last 11 on board, however, and mere 6-14 last 20 as dog. Utags in rare chalk role (0-1 since ’06) and just 3-10 vs. line last 13 at Logan. Tech edge-slight to USU, based on team trends.
TCU at SMU… SMU has covered last 2 and 4 of last 5 in series,covering last 2 vs. Frogs at Gerald Ford Stadium. TCU on 6-1 spread run dating to late LY. Ponies were 0-6 vs. line at home LY.Tech edge-slight to TCU, based on recent team trends.
FLORIDA at TENNESSEE…Urban Meyer 3-0 SU vs. Vols, although home team has covered last 3 meetings (2 of those by Gators). Urban Meyer 1-3 as road chalk LY, however, and just 2- 8 as visiting chalk since ’05. Vols 5-1-1 vs. line at home LY, 9-4-1 as host since ’06, and 4-0 as home dog since ’06. Tech edge-Tennessee, based on extended team trends.
GEORGIA at ARIZONA STATE…Richt 12-7 vs. line last 19 away from Athens. Richt also has covered all 5 chances as nonconference visitors (most of those vs. GT) since taking over Dawgs in ’01. Note Sun Devils 0-3 as dog for Erickson LY (0-1 as home dog), and ASU 7-16 last 23 as dog dating to late ’03. Tech edge-Georgia, based on team trends.
IOWA STATE at UNLV…If Rebs dog note 3-1 mark in role LY at Sam Boyd Stadium, 9-4 in role under Sanford since ’05. Tech edge-UNLV, if dog, based on team trends.
SAN JOSE STATE at STANFORD…Tree only 7-14 vs. line as host since mid ’04. Tech edge-San Jose, based on Tree home negatives.
NEW MEXICO STATE at UTEP…Mumme 1-6 vs. line on road since LY and 5-13 vs. line on road since taking over NMSU in ‘05. Also just 4-13 vs. line as road dog since ’05. Price, however, just 1-8 as chalk since ’06, and no covers last 2 vs. Aggies. Tech edgeslight to NMSU, based on UTEP chalk negatives.
ARIZONA at UCLA…Stoops 16-7-1 vs. line last 24 as dog., andCats have covered 6 of last 7 on board since late ’07 (including 34-27 win over UCLA LY). Neuheisel, however, just 5-16-2 his last 23 as chalk when at U-Dub. Tech edge-Arizona, based on team trends.
TROY at OHIO STATE…Trojans 7-3 as dog since ’06 and 4-2 that span getting DDs away. Trojans also 16-8 vs. number last 24 overall on board and 11-4 vs. spread last 15 away from Movie Gallery Stadium. Tech edge-Troy, based on team trends.
MIDDLE TENNESSEE at ARKANSAS STATE…Ugghhh! MTSU has owned this series, winning and covering last 5, all by DD margins! Red Wolves starting hot in ’08 but only 3-6 as chalk since ’06. Tech edge-MTSU, based on series trends.
UL-MONROE at TULANE…Weatherbie 13-6-1 vs. line as road dog since ’05, 17-8-1 as dog overall that span. Warhawks 9-2 as singledigit dog that span. Tech edge-ULM, based on team trends.
FLORIDA ATLANTIC at MINNESOTA…Ugh! Revenge for Gophers after losing 42-39 at Dolphin Stadium LY. Brewster, however, 0-4 as chalk since arriving at UM in ’07. But Howard no cover last 11 as non-conference visitor, and FAU just 4-9 as road dog since ’06. Tech edge-slight to Minnesota, based on team trends.
SOUTH FLORIDA at FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL…Cristobal was 3-1 as home dog LY and 2-0 getting DDs at FIU Stadium. Tech edge-slight to FIU, based on team trends.
KENT STATE at LOUISIANA…Golden Flashes just 2-13 vs.number last 15 on board. If Kent State favored note 2-10 mark in role since ’05. Tech edge-Louisiana, based on KSU negatives.
NFL
KANSAS CITY at ATLANTA…Falcs “over” 7-2 last 9 as host.Herm now 7-2 vs. line away since LY after opening road cover at NE. Tech edge-slight to “over” and Chiefs, based on “totals” and team trends.
OAKLAND at BUFFALO…Bills now 11-3 vs. line for Dick Jauron
their last 14 at home. Tech edge-Bills, based on team trends.
HOUSTON at TENNESSEE…Titans have won and covered last 4 meetings (all competitive affairs), and the last four in series are “over” as well. Texans “over” 8-2-1 their last 11 on road. Although Titans now “under” 13-6 since ’07. Tech edge-slight to “over,” based on “totals” trends.
CINCINNATI at NY GIANTS…Giants have covered last 8 and 10 of last 11 since a year ago. Coughlin “under” 9-3 last 12 as host.Tech edge-Giants and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.
ARIZONA at WASHINGTON…Cards “over” 23-7-1 last 31 on road. Tech edge-“Over,” based on team trends.
MIAMI at NEW ENGLAND…”Unders” 6-3-1 last 10 in series.Pats also “under” 7-2 last 9 on board. Tech edge-“Under,” based on “totals” trends.
TAMPA BAY at CHICAGO…Bears “over” 15-4 last 19 at Soldier Field. Lovie just 2-7 last 9 as home chalk. Tech edge-“Over,” based on Bears’ “totals” trends.
CAROLINA at MINNESOTA…If Carolina a dog, note 26-11-2 mark for Fox in role since late ’02. Vikes “over” 7-2 last 9 at Metrodome. Tech edge-Carolina, especially if dog, and “over” based on team and “totals” trends.
ST. LOUIS at SEATTLE… Rams 5-13 vs. number since LY, 2-6 last 8 as road dog. Rams also “under” 14-5 last 19 on road. Tech edge-Seahawks and “under,” based on Rams and “totals” trends.
DETROIT at SAN FRANCISCO…Lions very poor value lately on road, just 4-13 vs. points as visitor since ’06. And they’re “over” 14-4 last 18 on road! Tech edge-slight to 49ers and “over,” based on Lions’ extended road and “totals” trends enver “over” 18-5 last 23 on board! Broncos also 12-5 “over” last 17 at home. Tech edge-“Over,” based on “totals” trends of each.
PITTSBURGH at PHILADELPHIA…Birds “under” 11-6-1 at Linc since ’06. Andy only 5-10 as home chalk the past two seasons but won easily in role vs. Rams in opener. Tech edge-slight to “under,” based on “totals” trends.
JACKSONVILLE at INDIANAPOLIS…Colts have won SU 5 of last 6 meetings, but only 2-3-1 vs. line in those games. Jags “over” 10-2 last 12 on road. Tech edge-slight to “over,” based on “totals” trends.
CLEVELAND at BALTIMORE…Cleveland has covered last 5 in series (Brownies only 3-2 SU in those games, however). Romeo “over” 10-6 on road since ’06, however. Tech edge-slight to Brownies and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.
DALLAS at GREEN BAY…Dallas won 37-27 at Texas Stadium LY. Cowboys “over” 17-9-1 last 27 away, Pack “over” 16-4 since ’07. Tech edge-“Over,” based on “totals” trends.NY JETS at SAN DIEGO (Monday, September 22)…Jets 9-5 vs. line as regular-season road dog for Mangini. Tech edgeslightto Jets, based on team trends.
COLLEGE SYSTEM PLAYS THIS WEEK
COACH & POINTSPREAD-ARKANSAS over Alabama, AUBURN over Lsu@, BALL STATE over Indiana, BYU over Wyoming, CINCINNATI over Miami-Ohio@, EAST CAROLINA over NC State@, GEORGIA TECH over Mississippi State, UL-MONROE obver Tulane, MICHIGAN STATE over Notre Dame@, MISSOURI over Buffalo, OHIO STATE over Troy, OREGON over Boise State@, SOUTH FLORIDA over Florida International, TCU over Smu@, VIRGINIA TECH over North Carolina.
COLLEGE COACH AS UNDERDOG-AUBURN* over Lsu, UL-MONROE over Tulane, MEW MEXICO over Tulsa, NC State over East Carolina@, VIRGINIA TECH* over North Carolina, WAKE FOREST over Florida State, and dog in ARIZONA-UCLA game.
RIVALRY DOGS-MIAMI-OHIO over Cincinanti@, SMU over Tcu@.
POWER UNDERDOGS-ARIZONA STATE over Georgia, BOISE STATE over Oregon@, IOWA over Pitt, NEW MEXICO over Tulsa,TENNESSEE over Florida, VIRGINIA TECH* over North Carolina, WAKE FOREST over Florida State, and dog in AUBURN-LSU game.
PAINFUL MEMORY-UTAH over Air Force, TENNESSEE over Florida.
POWER REVENGE-AUBURN over Lsu@, TENNESSEE over Florida.
RESTED HOME WINNERS-COLORADO over West Virginia (Thursday,September 18), ARKANSAS over Alabama.
IMPOTENT FAVORITES-IDAHO over Utah State, SAN JOSE STATE over Stanford.
"AFS" (Away from spread last two decisions): PLUS (+)...SoCal +23.00, BYU 21.75,, MTSU 16.75, Penn St 14.75, AFA 14.25, UNLV 13.50, Cal 13.25, Minn 12.75, Tulane 12.75, Vandy 12.50, Okla 12.25,SJSU 11.50, Utah 11.50, Okla. St 11.00, UConn 10.00, Fresno 10.00,TCU 10.00, Texas 10.00; MINUS (-)...WSU -32.25, Ida 29.00, Rut 29.00, Va 24.40, Ohio St 21,50, UCLA 20.00, Haw 19.00, EMU 18.25,Wyo 17.25, Syr 15.50, USU 14.75, BGSU 13.0, Pitt 13.00, SMU 12.50
POINTSPREAD STREAKS: Wins...3-Ohio, USM, Temple, Vandy;2-AFA, Ball, Duke, Fla, GT, ISU, MTSU, Ole Miss, Mizzou, NIU, Okla,Okla St, Penn St, SJSU, SoCal, TCU, Tex, Tulane, Tulsa, UNLV, Wisc.Losses...3-Mich, Syr, UAB, WSU; 2-Aub, BGSU, CMU, EMU, Haw,Hou, Ida, Ill, Kent St, Marsh, Navy, Nev, NCS, Pitt, Rut, Stan, Utah St,UYTEP, Va, VT, Wyo.
NFL SYSTEM PLAYS THIS WEEK
NFL COACH AS UNDERDOG-CAROLINA over Minnesota, GREEN BAY over Dallas, JACKSONVILLE over Indy, NEW ORLEANS over Denver.
FAMILIARITY-BALTIMORE over Cleveland.
NFL BLOWOUT BOUNCEBACK-No plays this week.
NFL BLOWOUT LETDOWN-No plays this week.
*-If underdog. #-If dog, pick, or 1-point favorite. @-May conflict with other tech system(s). For preferred TGS EXTRA!!! recommendation, consult Technician’s Corner and/or Tech Plays of Week. Line moves after Sunday night can alter selections in certain systems.
Nelly's Sportsline
NFL KEY SELECTIONS
RATING 5 WASHINGTON (-3) over Arizona
RATING 4 MIAMI (+13½) over New England
RATING 3 SAN FRANCISCO (-3½) over Detroit
RATING 2 JACKSONVILLE (+6) over Indianapolis
RATING 1 TAMPA BAY (+3) over Chicago
ATLANTA (-4) Kansas City (36)
Matt Ryan learned what it is like to play quarterback on the road in the NFL with a pair of picks last week that dug too big of a hole for the Falcons. The Chiefs fell to 0-2 with an embarrassing loss at home to Oakland and Kansas City has just 157 rushing yards through two games and will be relying on Tyler Thigpen at QB for much of the action in a bizarre QB shuffle. Kansas City’s commendable opening game performance against New England was certainly aided by the shock of the Brady injury but the Chiefs defense can perform well enough to stay in games. Atlanta has looked decent on defense this season but consider the competition before assuming the Falcons will be much more competitive than most preseason projections. CHIEFS BY 3
BUFFALO (-9½) Oakland (37½)
The Bills are 2-0 with impressive wins over ’07 playoff teams but this might actually be a tricky spot for the Bills, now expected to win big. The Raiders have compiled massive rushing yards this season and the opening loss was a more competitive game vs. Denver than the final score indicated. QB Russell is going struggle on the road against the Bills defense but Buffalo has caught some breaks in the two games so far this season. Although the Raiders are intriguing as an underdog with a great running game this will be a second straight road game, now requiring cross c ountry travel and the Bills have historically had great numbers at home. BILLS BY 14
TENNESSEE (-5) Houston (37½)
This line looks a bit sneaky as the Titans are off to a strong 2-0 start and Houston was trounc ed in week one and now has to deal with the Hurricane aftermath and all the hectic changes in their schedule the past week. Houston has not had success in this series of late but the Texans were a quality team last year that simply had a bad game in the opening week. that was actually much closer than the final score indicated. Houston has an excellent pass rush that may give QB Collins problems and the Titans will have to play in the favorite role now, which has been a much less favorable proposition. Houston has obvious distractions to deal with but the Titans will also have the Vince Young situation creating a stir. Expect a close game in this key division match-up as Houston needs a win. TITANS BY 3
NY GIANTS (-13½) Cincinnati (42)
The defending Super Bowl champions are playing with great confidence right now but beating St. Louis should not bring them too much credit. The Bengals have allowed big rushing totals the last two weeks and New York has dominated its first two opponents on the ground. Cincinnati has not been able to move the ball with embarrassing yardage totals through two games but the defense has been better than expected as neither opponent had big numbers against them. Laying double-digits in the NFL is dangerous but Cincinnati can not be backed right now and the Giants should not be doubted until the win streak comes to an end. GIANTS BY 17
WASHINGTON (-3) Arizona (42)
Arizona is off to a great 2-0 start but the Cardinals will face long travel here and consider that the wins have come against bad teams. Arizona received five turnovers in an opening win and this is a still a team that has a horrible history of delivering when expectations are high. Washington won a critical game last week to stay afloat in the ultra-tough NFC East and the offense delivered huge numbers. There is little reason to expect the Arizona defense to make many stops and Washington has done a fine job against the pass this season. Arizona has not proven it can run the ball against a quality opponent and this looks like a tough road spot. REDSKINS BY 13
NEW ENGLAND (-13½) Miami (34½)
The Patriots are 2-0 and QB Cassel passed his first test last week with a controlled game. The Patriots are averaging just 18 points per game despite facing two teams that won just four games last season and now the team will be expected to lay double-digits. This will be a key game for the Dolphins given the history between Parcells and Belichick and it makes sense that Miami had a tough game last week facing long travel and coming off an emotional opening loss. The Dolphins played close in several games last season despite the poor record and with the injuries, the Patriots offense can not be expected to produce big numbers. Miami is still going to be a losing team but there has been improvement. PATRIOTS BY 4
CHICAGO (-3) Tampa Bay (35½)
The Bears blew a golden opportunity to move to 2-0 last week and it will likely be a loss that stays with the team into this week. Chicago had a great start to the game and the defense dominated early but the momentum shifted dramatically on a couple of big plays. Tampa Bay rebounded nicely with Griese at QB and the Bucs used a solid rushing attack to deliver a solid win.Chicago has run the ball effectively this season but the team has been fortunate with defensive touchdowns in both games this year. BUCS BY 3
MINNESOTA (-3) Carolina (36½)
The Panthers have certainly caught some breaks to deliver two comeback victories but the team has shown great resolve and is also putting a lot pressure on opposing QBs. Minnesota has plenty of talent but the emotional toll of last week’s loss could be a season-killer as the Vikings now sit 0-2 despite being considered NFC contenders. Minnesota has played two tough opponents respectably this season but this is still a team that will be vulnerable to the pass and that will have trouble scoring. PANTHERS BY 3
SEATTLE (-10½) St. Louis (44)
The Seahawks suffered a brutal loss last week and sitting 0-2 this becomes a critical game. The Rams have not been able to do anything on the ground offensively this season but also consider that they have faced off with two likely elite teams in the league. Seattle still owns a great home field record despite the loss last week and the Seahawks actually have a great record as a significant favorite the last few seasons. SEAHWAKS BY 14
SAN FRANCISCO (-3½) Detroit (45)
Some things just do not change and the problems for Detroit are severe after falling behind by three touchdowns early in back-to-back weeks. The Lions have been able to get back into both games but the plan to develop the running game has been turned upside down due to the early defensive breakdowns. The 49ers got a breakout game from QB O’Sullivan last week and momentum should carry into this week. Until Detroit makes some stops early in a game they have to be played against. 49ERS BY 10
DENVER (-4) New Orleans (51)
The Broncos certainly got lucky last week on two key calls but the offensive numbers posted were still remarkable with 34 first downs against a good San Diego team. Denver is 2-0 and playing with a lot of confidence and judging by what the Saints have done on defense the past two weeks this could be a real match-up problem for New Orleans. The Saints are also facing a tough travel situation having played out East last week and now on the road again in a tough venue. Expect more big numbers. BRONCOS BY 10
PHILADELPHIA (NL) Pittsburgh
A huge Pennsylvania battle that rarely occurs in the regular season features two teams with high hopes. The Eagles face a tough Monday night game but the situation is not much better for Pittsburgh playing the second straight week on the road coming off a big Sunday night win. The Steelers have caught breaks so far this year and could get caught here. EAGLES BY 10
INDIANAPOLIS (-6) Jacksonville (42)
The Colts scored an improbable comeback victory to avoid starting 0-2 but Jacksonville could not do the same. The Jaguars have had ATS success in this series and the Colts have still not looked sharp on offense with no running game and much worse pass protection than has been typical for this team. Jacksonville has also struggled to run the ball but consider that Jacksonville’s opponents are both 2-0 while the Colts struggled against two NFC North teams that did not make the playoffs last year. JAGS BY 4
Cleveland (NL) BALTIMORE
The Browns have been very sloppy this season with loads of mistakes from players and coaches. Baltimore delivered a solid opening win but it was a struggle against a Cincinnati team with major issues. The Browns have faced two high quality opponents so far this season and fallen behind early.Baltimore is unlikely to get off to a fast start with a conservative offense and the Browns may finally put up some numbers. BROWNS BY 10
Dallas (NL) GREEN BAY
The Cowboys do have the advantage of having played against QB Rodgers before and although he has looked sharp he has also faced two poor pass defenses. The Cowboys will face a hangover risk after the big Monday night game and this is a big revenge spot for the Packers. Dallas should be the superior team but Green Bay is not a team to go against given how well this team seems to have adjusted. The Cowboys have had success in this series but this could be a tough spot on the road. PACKERS BY 3
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 22, 2008
SAN DIEGO (-9½) NY Jets (42½)
The Chargers have had two devastatingly narrow losses this season and they definitely can have legitimate complaints about last week’s loss with questionable officiating decisions. New York could not knock off the Patriots and move into the AFC East lead but New York has looked sharp on defense. This is a nightmare scenario for the Chargers but the offense has not put a complete game together so far this season and the defense has struggled. The Jets might have some Monday magic. CHARGERS BY 6
Cajun-Sports "Gator Report" Newsletter for Saturday
News & Notes:
Saturday’s Gator Report includes our “Underdog” Game of the Week, SEC GOW, ACC GOW, Big Easy GOW and our 2* CFB “Tech” GOW. PLUS our 70% Super Situation Play of the Week which has posted a record of 25-2 since 1992 and it’s a 3* Selection!
Sunday’s Gator Report will be sent late Saturday afternoon or early evening. Have a great weekend and as always good luck!
>Selections in the Gator Report are always 1-Unit selections unless otherwise noted. (*) 1-Unit, (**) 2-Units and () 3-Units.
NCAA “Tech” Game of the Week:
2 STAR SELECTION
Kent State +2½ over LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE
The Ragin' Cajuns seek their first win of the season when they host the Golden Flashes in a MAC vs. Sun Belt Conference clash Saturday night. Akron did get their first win of the season last week over 1-AA Delaware, 24-3. They opened the 2008 season with back-to-back losses to Boston College and Iowa State. Meanwhile, Louisiana-Lafayette opened the 2008 campaign with an embarrassing, 51-21 setback to Southern Mississippi, and followed that game with a tough, 20-17 loss at Illinois.
The Cajuns have not enjoyed much of a home field advantage, as they lost 5 of 6 Cajun Field and will now try to stop a Kent State team coming off its best offensive effort of the year. The defense for ULL has been unable to stop the run, as the opposition is pounding the Cajuns for a whopping 300+ rushing ypg. Overall the defense is allowing 487 total ypg, and that has led to a whopping 35.5 ppg.
The opening line of this game certainly caught our eye, as we look to play AGAINST a team that opened as a favorite a half-point lower than a “key number”, such as a 2', or 6'-point favorite, especially the 2'.
Three and seven are the top 2 key numbers in college football, meaning more games end with those 2 margins than any others. Oddsmakers try to use numbers a half-point below the keys against the player, hoping the bettor will think "oh, the favorite 'only' has to win by a FG, TD, or double-digits (the key number in question) and still cover the spread." This can be a trap as the underdog will often cover easily and sometimes win outright.
This certainly has not been a good price range for Louisiana-Lafayette, as they are 0-5-1 ATS (-13.1 ppg) with a line between -3 and +1. These inter-conference meetings have not been kind to the Cajun’s conference as well. Sun Belt teams are 0-7 SU (-13.4 ppg) & 0-6-1 ATS (-9 ppg) vs. the Mid-American Conference when not favored by 8+ points since 2004.
Actually, Sun Belt Conference teams have done very poorly since the league’s existence in games with very tight lines in all non-conference games. This is documented by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which states:
Play AGAINST a Sun Belt Conference team (not a favorite of more than 3 points or underdog of 3+ points) vs. a non-conference opponent.
The Sun Belt teams in this spot are 0-10 SU & ATS, losing outright and failing to cover by an average of 2 TDs per game on each count. Last year, it was Louisiana-Lafayette hosting Ohio of the MAC and lost 31-23 as a 1-point home dog. The Cajuns qualify again as the PLAY AGAINST team, so we’ll take all the points we can get back the over looked Golden Flashes.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: KENT STATE 28 LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE 24
NCAA 70% Super Situations:
>NCAA Saturday: Play Under CFB team against the total after gaining 150 or less total yards in their previous game against opponent after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game, 25-2 Under since 1992 (92.6%) PLAY: Mississippi State / Georgia Tech UNDER 36.5
Gator Report NCAA Games of the Week:
>SEC GOW (1-1 -10): AUBURN +2½ over LSU
LSU is:
0-4 SU & 0-3-1 ATS at Auburn
0-7 ATS as a conference favorite with less than 13 days rest last season.
0-7-1 as a Saturday conference favorite of less than 16 points with less than 13 days rest under Les Miles.
Auburn is:
9-0 ATS (+16.4 ppg) as an underdog before Game 8 vs. opponents off 2 SU wins.
8-0 ATS since 2004 off scoring less than 21 points and not favored by 41+ points.
>Big 10 GOW (0-0-1 0.0): no play for this week
>CUSA GOW (1-0 +100): no play for this week
>PAC 10 GOW (1-0 +100): no play for this week
>ACC GOW (0-0): Wake Forest +5 over FLORIDA STATE
Wake Forest is:
4-0 ATS vs. Florida State, winning the last 2 outright as underdogs, including 30-0 shutout in last trip to Tallahassee.
Florida State is:
0-4 ATS with double revenge since 1999
Off 2 non-lined SU wins; however, playing 2 1-AA teams has not prepared teams well for the role of small favorite. Favorites of 8 points or less off 2 non-lined games vs. opponents not off an underdog SU loss of 6+ points are 0-8 SU (-21.2 ppg) & 0-8 ATS (-23.4 ppg) since at least 1980.
>“BIG EASY” GOW (3-0 +300): OREGON -10 over Boise State
Boise State has NEVER beat a BCS school on the road, while Oregon is 20-1-1 ATS in home SU wins, including 8-0 ATS the last 89
Oregon has scored 34+ points in every non-conference home game since the start of the 2004 season, which is bad news for Boise State, as they are 0-11-1 ATS when allowing more than 28 points on the road.
>Underdog GOW (1-1 -10): TOLEDO +7 over Fresno State
The 25th-ranked Bulldogs are still hurting after losing a tough home game to No. 8-ranked Wisconsin. Now, the Bulldogs find themselves the hunted instead of the hunter, as they are forced to travel to a tough environment to play a hungry team looking for a program-building victory.
Fresno State entered the season with the highest of hopes - a Bowl Championship Series berth. After the 13-10 loss to Wisconsin in which there were missed three field goals, the Bulldogs' BCS dream is certainly a long shot.
The biggest question around the program is how the team responds to the adversity of losing to Wisconsin and effectively ending those hopes. In the past the Bulldogs have let down after tough losses.
Fresno State is:
0-12-1 ATS (-12.8 ppg) off a SU loss in which they did not beat the spread by more than 11 points.
0-11-1 ATS (-13 ppg) on the road off a SU loss
0-8-1 ATS (-10 ppg) off a home SU loss
Toledo is:
11-0 SU (+24.6 ppg) & 11-0 ATS (+15 ppg) at home off scoring 35+ points and allowing less than 35 points in its last game and not favored by 32+ points.
6-0 SU (+8.7 ppg) & 6-0 ATS (+12.8 ppg) as a home underdog under Amstutz with less than 14 days rest off their previous game.
4-0 SU & ATS at home with revenge vs. non-conference opponents under Amstutz.
Football Newsletter Report
(Top 2 Star Ratings Plays and Special Plays)
Northcoast Power Sweep
NCAA Power Sweep 4* (1-2, 33%)
UTAH -7.5
NFL Power Sweep 4* (1-0-1, 100%)
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS -4
Dog of the Week (1-1, 50%)
TOLEDO +7
Early Bird Play (1-0, 100%)
BYU -26 ( NOW -29 )
Winning Points
NCAA Best Bet (4-2, 67%)
MICHIGAN STATE -8.5
RUTGERS -5
NFL Best Bet (1-3, 25%)
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS +5.5
WASHINGTON REDSKINS -3
NCAA Preferred (6-8, 43%)
BOSTON COLLEGE -10.5
NORTH CAROLINA -2
UTAH -7.5
GEORGIA -7
NFL Preferred (0-2, 0%)
BUFFALO BILLS -9
CAROLINA PANTHERS +3.5
Northcoast Power Plays
NCAA Power Plays 4* (21-15-1, 58%)
PENN STATE -28
BYU -29
AUBURN +2.5
ALABAMA -9.5
HOUSTON -6.5
NORTH CAROLINA -2
UTAH -7.5
PURDUE -10.5
MARYLAND -21
FLORIDA -7.5
OHIO STATE -21
NFL Power Plays 4* (1-3, 33%)
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS -4
Pointwise
NCAA Pointwise 1 (3-3, 50%)
MICHIGAN STATE -8.5
MISSOURI -34
NFL Pointwise 1 (0-0, 0%)
NCAA Pointwise 2 (0-4, 0%)
EAST CAROLINA -7.5
NFL Pointwise 2 (0-1, 0%)
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -10
Confidential Kick Off
NCAA CKO 11 (1-1-1, 50%)
MINNESOTA -7
NFL CKO 11 (0-0, 0%)
NCAA CKO 10 (7-3, 70%)
RUTGERS -5
VANDERBILT +6.5
MIAMI OHIO +12
NFL CKO 10 (1-1, 50%)
ATLANTA FALCONS -5
The Goldsheet
NCAA Key Releases (7-6, 54%)
OHIO +10.5
SO MISSISSIPPI -9.5
MINNESOTA -7
NFL Key Releases (2-4, 33%)
HOUSTON TEXANS +5
CAROLINA PANTHERS +3.5
NEW YORK JETS/SAN DIEGO CHARGERS OVER 44
The Goldsheet Extra
NCAA Technical Plays of the Week (2-2, 50%)
BYU -29
HOUSTON -6.5
SAN JOSE STATE +9
ARIZONA -2.5
NFL Technical Plays of the Week (0-0, 0%)
NEW YORK GIANTS -13.5
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS / DENVER BRONCOS OVER 51.5
Red Sheet
NCAA Red Sheet 90 (1-0, 100%)
NFL Red Sheet 90 (0-0, 0%)
NCAA Red Sheet 89 (2-3-1, 40%)
MINNESOTA -7
MIAMI OHIO +12
NFL Red Sheet 89 (0-0, 0%)
NCAA Red Sheet 88 (4-4-1, 50%)
MICHIGAN STATE -8.5
SO MISSISSIPPI -9.5
RUTGERS -5
NFL Red Sheet 88 (1-1, 50%)
NEW YORK GIANTS -13.5
Sports Reporter
NCAA Super Best Bet (1-0, 100%)
MIAMI OHIO +12
NFL Super Best Bet (1-0, 100%)
NCAA Best Bet (4-6-1, 40%)
ARIZONA STATE +7
NOTRE DAME +8.5
CENTRAL FLORIDA +10.5
NFL Best Bet (4-1, 80%)
ARIZONA CARDINALS +3
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS +5.5
BALTIMORE RAVENS -2
NCAA Recommended (7-3-1, 70%)
UL – MONROE +6
MISSISSIPPI -6.5
NFL Recommended (0-3, 0%)
NEW YORK GIANTS -13.5
Kevin O’Neill The Max
Erik Scheponik NCAA (1-1, 50%)
WAKE FOREST +4.5
Erik Scheponik NFL (1-0, 100%)
CLEVELAND BROWNS/BALTIMORE RAVENS UNDER 38.5
Dave Fobare NCAA (2-0, 100%)
GEORGIA -7
Dave Fobare NFL (0-1, 0%)
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +4.5
Kevin O’Neill NCAA (4-2, 67%)
AUBURN +3
NORTH CAROLINA -1.5
ARKANSAS STATE -5
Kevin O’Neill NFL (0-2, 0%)
ARIZONA CARDINALS +3
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +5.5
Matty Baiungo NCAA (1-2, 33%)
UTAH -7.5
TENNESSEE +7.5
Matty Baiungo NFL (2-0, 100%)
CAROLINA PANTHERS +3.5
HQ Report
HQ Report 5 (1-1-1, 50%)
FLORIDA -7
HQ Report 4 (0-0, 0%)
HQ Underdog Play (3-0, 100%)
BAYLOR +14
HQ Total Recall (1-2, 33%)
CENTRAL MICHIGAN vs PURDUE PLAY OVER
HQ ATS (2-1, 67%)
TULSA -10
Sports Insight Marketwatch
NCAA Games to Watch (6-3, 67%)
MISSISSIPPI –6.5
AUBURN +3
TENNESSEE +7.5
NFL Games to Watch (3-3, 50%)
CINCINNATI BENGALS +13.5
MINNESOTA VIKINGS -3
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +5.5
The Sports Memo
Ed Cash NCAA (2-0, 100%)
GEORGIA -6.5
Ed Cash NFL (0-0, 0%)
Fairway Jay NCAA (2-0, 100%)
Fairway Jay NFL (0-0, 0%)
OAKLAND AT BUFFALO Under 37
Tim Trushel NCAA (1-0, 100%)
NORTH CAROLINA -1.5
Tim Trushel NFL (1-0, 100%)
Donnie Black NCAA (2-0, 100%)
AUBURN +3
Donnie Black NFL (0-0, 0%)
Jared Klein NCAA (1-0, 100%)
Jared Klein NFL (1-0, 100%)
ST. LOUIS RAMS +10
Brent Crow NCAA (0-1-1, 0%)
EAST CAROLINA -7.5
Brent Crow NFL (0-0, 0%)
Erin Rynning NCAA (1-0, 100%)
Erin Rynning NFL (1-0, 100%)
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS -4
Rob Veno NCAA (1-0, 0%)
Rob Veno NFL (1-0, 100%)
MINNESOTA VIKINGS -3
Marty Otto NCAA (0-1, 0%)
NAVY AT RUTGERS Over 58
Marty Otto NFL (1-0, 100%)
Teddy Covers NCAA (0-0, 0%)
SO MISSISSIPPI -9.5
Teddy Covers NFL (0-1, 0%)
Marc Lawrence Playbook
NCAA Best Bet 5 (2-1, 67%)
BOSTON COLLEGE - 10 1/2
NFL Best Bet 5 (2-1, 67%)
CAROLINA PANTHERS +3.5
ARIZONA CARDINALS / WASHINGTON REDSKINS Over 42
NCAA Best Bet 4 (1-2, 33%)
GEORGIA -7
NFL Best Bet 4 (1-1, 50%)
HOUSTON TEXANS +5
DETROIT LIONS / SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS Over 46.5
Upset Game of the Week (0-2, 0%)
ARMY +10
Statfox Platinum Sheet
NCAA (7-3, 70%)
LSU -3
PITTSBURGH -1
OREGON -12
TEXAS A&M +3.5
TENNESSEE +7
NFL (5-5, 50%)
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +4
ARIZONA CARDINALS +3
CAROLINA PANTHERS +3
ST. LOUIS RAMS +10.5
DENVER BRONCOS -4.5
Logical Approach
College Selection of the Week (0-0, 0%)
TULSA - 10 ½
NFL Selection of the Week (0-0, 0%)
MINNESOTA - 3 ½
College Featured Selections (0-0, 0%)
VIRGINIA TECH + 2
UL – MONROE +6
MISSISSIPPI -6.5
NFL Featured Selections (0-0, 0%)
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS + 5 ½
GREEN BAY + 3
SAN DIEGO - 9
Best of NFL Totals (0-0, 0%)
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS / ATLANTA FALCONS UNDER 36
OAKLAND RAIDERS / BUFFALO BILLS UNDER 36
ARIZONA CARDINALS / WASHINGTON REDSKINS OVER 42
MIAMI DOLPHINS / NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS UNDER 35
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS / CHICAGO BEARS UNDER 35 ½
DETROIT LIONS / SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS OVER 46
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS / INDIANAPOLIS COLTS UNDER 42
CLEVELAND BROWNS / BALTIMORE RAVENS UNDER 38 ½
College Moneyline Recommendations (1-0, 100%)
ARKANSAS
TEXAS A&M
UL – MONROE
NFL Moneyline Recommendations (0-0, 0%)
HOUSTON TEXANS
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
GREEN BAY PACKERS
Nelly's Sportsline
NCAA Rating 5 (0-0, 0%)
TULSA -10.5
NFL Rating 5 (0-0, 0%)
WASHINGTON REDSKINS -3
NCAA Rating 4 (0-0, 0%)
MIAMI FLORIDA -3.5
NFL Rating 4 (0-0, 0%)
MIAMI DOLPHINS +13.5
Cajun-Sports "Gator Report" Newsletter
3 Unit Plays (0-0, 0%)
MISSISSIPPI STATE / GEORGIA TECH UNDER 36.5
2 Unit Plays (0-0, 0%)
KENT STATE +2.5