Power Sweep
4* Florida 44-13
3*East Carolina +
3* LSU 41-10
2* Temple + 21-20
2*Oregon 45-3
2* Pittsburg 30-13
Underdog ULM +14 21-17
4* Carolina + 20-21
3* Jax Under
2* Houston + 24-26
2* NYG 27-13
3* Jax Under 37
3* Cowboya Under 49
3* Bengals Under 39
2* Carolina Over 41
2* Texans Over 44
Power Sweep College Key Selections
4* FLORIDA over Miami, Fl - These two were fierce rivals in the 80?s and have met 4 times this decade including 2 bowls with Miami winning all 4! UM rFr QB Marve was susp LW and makes his debut here. The line play will be the key as UM replaces 3 OL starters while UF replaces their top sack man. The Hurricanes rush attack slowed to a crawl gaining just 1.6 ypc the L/3 games of LY while Florida?s rush D all?d just 2.3 ypc on the ssn at home. Miami has never been a DD dog in this rivalry. Keep in mind LY Miami was a DD dog 3 times and was 1-2 ATS with the lone win by a half point and a loss to Oklahoma 51-13. Their young QB will make his first road start in the Swamp. Florida is coming off a 56-10 rout vs Hawaii AND has a bye on deck! The Gators also whipped Fla
St (-14) in their season finale LY 45-12. While Florida has the obvious offensive edge (#1-85), the defensive edge is slightly closer (#5-22). The Gators have a better off, better def, 4 times revenge and state pride. FORECAST: FLORIDA 44 Miami, Fl 13
3* EAST CAROLINA (+) over West Virginia - WV has won 7 in a row SU in the series outgaining EC by 194 ypg. Until LY it appeared Holtz had devised the perfect plan to stop the spread as they were the only team to hold WV under 200 yards rush in both ?05 and ?06 covering by 11 ppg. WV shredded them for 599 yards in a 48-7 win in ?07. Holtz is 10-4 ATS vs non-conf and 17-5 ATS as a dog! LW QB Pat White threw (no really) for a career high 5 TD?s in WV?s new look offense which features a more balanced attack. Despite being outgained 399-354 & allowing IAA Villanova to control the TOP(37:22), the Mountaineers prevailed 48-21. We won a 3H LPS on EC as they stunned #17 VT in Beamer-like fashion blocking a punt with 1:52 left for a 27-22 outright upset. WV once again has the off (#16-47) and ST?s (#40-94) edges while EC has the D edge (#34-56). Holtz has been an excellent underdog coach but now has his team expecting to beat BCS caliber foes. FORECAST: EAST CAROLINA 31 (+) West Virginia 34
3* LSU over Troy - Troy is off B2B 8-win seasons and HC Blakeney keeps them playing hard as they are 5-2 ATS vs BCS teams. What is even more impressive is that they avg?d 400 ypg in 3 SEC road games LY. They now are led by QB Hampton who got his 2nd career start in LW?s decisive SBC win over MT. Troy RB Harris had 148 rush (7.Cool, but LB?s Woods and Lee posted 25 tkl, 2.5 sk, 5.5 tfl to steal the show. LSU QB Hatch made his 1st career start LW (7-14 for 77 yds, 1 TD) but split time with Jarrett Lee (6-10 for 116 with 2-1 ratio) in the IA vs IAA championship battle. RB Scott got the start (160, 10.0). LSU has another week to work on their offense with NT on deck and expect
the defense to step up as they gave up 187 yds passing (42%) to App St LW. Troy is 1-8 vs the SEC only losing by an avg of 12 pgg. LSU on the other hand is 31-0 SU vs SBC teams with avg win of 46-3. In their only other meeting LSU was -24 in 2004 and barely won 24-20. Troy has a different QB,different OC and will have disparate SEC results compared to LY. FORECAST: LSU 41 Troy 10 NOTE: THIS GAME HAS BEEN POSTPONED UNTIL NOV. 15
OTHER SELECTIONS
2* TEMPLE (+) over Connecticut-Temple beat Connecticut LY getting a TD pass with :40 left but they were robbed by the officials and then the replay crew (see PH). Conn has now won 11 in a row SU vs the MAC (7-4 ATS). Temple is just 7-25 SU at home but always puts a little more into this game (4-0 ATS vs Conn) as they were kicked out of the Big East and basically replaced by Conn. UC only had a IAA foe (beat Hofstra 35-3) LW, who was without their starting QB. The Huskies have 17 starters back from their 9-4 bowl squad. Temple has all 22 starters back with just 3 lettermen lost but does have their MAC opener on deck. Golden is 6-2 as a HD while UC has been an AF just 9 times in 7 years but is 7-2 ATS in that role. The Owls are off a 35-7 win over Army, in the Knights 1st game with their new option offense, but were still outgained by Army 284-250 as the Owls scored on a FR and a 98 yd KR. Expect marked improvement from the 22 Owl returning starters from Wk 1 to Wk 2.
FORECAST: TEMPLE 21 (+) Connecticut 20
2*OREGON over Utah St - First meeting S/?01 as the Ducks are 3-0 SU (1-0 ATS) all-time vs the Aggies with a 39-12 margin of victory. The Aggies dropped their 2nd straight ssn opener at the hands of UNLV but are 6-2 ATS as an AD and 2-1 ATS vs BCS teams the L3Y but have won just 6 of 36 gms vs the Pac-10. The Ducks delivered a 3H LPS Winner LW despite losing starting QB Roper (late 2Q) with a mild concussion. UO is 13-3 ATS as a HF and beat WAC member Fresno by 31 LY (-16?). Under Bellotti, the Ducks are 27-1 SU at home vs non-conf foes but surprisingly haven?t been a 20+ fav in 4 years. With Oregon coming off a P10 game, a trip to the Big Ten, matchup vs ranked Boise and the rest of the P10 sked, this is the game they put the least emphasis on this year. FORECAST: OREGON 45 Utah St 3
2* PITTSBURGH over Buffalo - 1st meeting. Buffalo is 3-13 ATS vs current BE teams & 1-10 in their L/11 road openers. Pitt is now 25-3 vs the MAC. Pitt was handed their worst upset home loss since 2001 to USF. They squandered a 14-0 lead losing 27-17 to BG, despite a 393-254 yd edge. Buffalo had a huge win over UTEP 42-17. QB Willy threw for a IA school record 4 TD?s. For a team that allowed 406 ypg & 28 ppg in ?07, they held UTEP to 266 yds. Pitt plays their 2nd straight MAC team at home with a bye on deck while Buffalo has their MAC opener on deck. Pitt has the edge on offense (#45-52) and defense (#18-58). Pitt OC Cavanaugh told the Panther fans that they would be surprised with the new offense and the pressure is on after LW?s loss. BG stacked 8 in the box and Stull refused to stretch the field. Wannstedt will fix that TW.
FORECAST: PITTSBURGH 30 Buffalo 13
UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK
Over the past 25 years this play has been a reader favorite hitting 177-123. Over the last 8 years the Underdog Play of the Week has recorded 27 OUTRIGHT UPSET WINNERS to the incredible record! Here is this week's Underdog Play of the Week: UL-Monroe (+14 1/2) over Arkansas Arkansas? new offense struggled vs IAA W Ill only winning 28-24 but QB Dick did pass for 318 yds (just the 10th Razorback to throw for 300+ yds). They were without RB Smith who was serving a one-gm suspension. They now host an upper echelon SBC team that, of course, knocked off Bama LY but struggled vs Auburn in their opener (lost 34-0 and were without starting WR?s McNeal and Sapp). The young Ark LB?s corp will find this Lancaster-led (136 yds LW vs Aub) offense a formidable early season test. LY the Hogs hosted 3 SBC teams (Troy, FlU & NT a combined 11-25) and while they did win all 3 they allowed 329 ypg. ULM meanwhile traveled to 3 BCS teams (Clem, A&M, Bama) and avg?d 350 ypg. These tms last met in ?05 and UA is 7-0 SU but 3-4 ATS in the series. The Razorbacks have just 11 returning starters and are learning new schemes with Texas on deck while ULM has 15 starters back with Alabama A&M up next. FORECAST: ARKANSAS 21 Ulm 17
Power Sweep NFL Key Selections
4* Carolina (+) over SAN DIEGO - SD comes into the season as the runaway favorite for the AFC West while CAR, behind a healthy Delhomme, is expected to mount a serious challenge in the NFC South. SD is 6-0 ATS as a HF of 7+ while CAR is 18-9-2 ATS as an AD. CAR susp Steve Smith the 1st 2 games & the WR is struggling w/injs. CAR is returning to a power rushing attack & upgraded the OL with a new face at each spot. They showed just how serious they are in the preseason as CAR posted 107 rush att?s (4.Cool in the first 3 preseason games. LY before his elbow injury Delhomme avg?d 308 ypg (64%) with an 8-1 ratio & CAR scored 27, 21 & 27 pts. From 2004-2006 SD was in the top 3 for rush def & allowed just 16 100 yd games but LY teams spread the defense out & SD allowed 7 100+ yd games. SD allowed 102 yds rushing on STL 1st 16 rush att?s & looked sloppy vs SEA with 162 yds (5.1). SD is also dealing w/injs as C Hardwick (knee) is out & LT McNeil (stinger) didn?t practice at all in preseason. Rivers is just 7 months removed from having his ACL replaced & TE Gates is only at 85%. While Tomlinson will get his yards here, CAR has shifted its defensive strength to the back 7 &
look for Peppers to announce his return here.
FORECAST: Carolina 20 (+) SAN DIEGO 21
3* Jaguars/Titans: UNDER - The Titans upset the Jags 13-10 as a 7 pt AD by playing the Jags? type of smashmouth football (282-75 rush edge) in the 2007 season opener. In the 2nd meeting JAX beat TEN 28-13 as a 4.5 pt AD in their 3rd straight road game & were without Garrard for the 3rd straight game. TEN turned the ball over 3 times & were SOD twice deep in JAX territory. TEN has some major questions concerning their passing game as their WR?s couldn?t gain separation in the preseason in
returning OC Heimerdinger?s offense. QB Young only tallied 150 yds (50%) with an 0-1 ratio vs an ATL team whose secondary looks to be worse than LY?s #23 ranking. JAX also has issues with its WR unit as big FA signing Jerry Porter has missed virtually all of TC with a torn hamstring, slot WR Northcutt (44 rec 13.7 LY) is the #1 WR & the #2 option is either troubled Matt Jones (24 rec 13.2 LY) or Reggie Williams (38 rec 16.6 LY) who has missed most of TC with a right knee inj. Both teams rely on powerful ground oriented offenses & with neither team having a dropoff in their defenses (JAX #12 TEN #5 LY) this should be a physical, hard fought lower scoring game. TEN is a strong HD (7-1 ATS) with a solid crowd & the Under is the play.
FORECAST: Jaguars/Titans: UNDER THE TOTAL
OTHER SELECTIONS
2* Houston (+) over PITTSBURGH - While this is the 1st meeting since PIT beat HOU 27-7 as a 4.5 pt AF in 2005 the Steelers have faced a similar type of offense the L2Y vs DEN. PIT is, however, 0-2 SU & ATS vs a Kubiak-oriented offense. PIT is 8-4 ATS as a non-div HF while HOU is 3-6 ATS as an AD. HOU matches up well with their talented 4-3 DL in its 2nd season together featuring DE Mario Williams (14 sacks LY) vs an OL that allowed Roethlisberger to get sacked 47 times LY. While PIT had the #3 pass def LY HOU only had Schaub & WR Johnson together for 4 full games (3-1 SU & ATS w/24-15 avg score). In those, Schaub passed for 250 ypg (66.4%) with a 7-3 ratio & Johnson had 23 rec (18.2). PIT has a big edge with their #3 run game from LY reinforced by Mendenhall vs a HOU team that still lacks a solid feature back to balance out the offense. Look for this to be a higher scoring affair as both teams are pass oriented with quality receiving targets. We are aware that HOU had 6 road losses by a 16 ppg margin LY but that was without their QB/WR tandem, lack of depth at RB & a beaten up secondary. HOU is our 1st NFL ?Ugly Dog? Play for 2008 which is currently at 17-8 (68%). FORECAST: Houston 24 (+) PITTSBURGH 26
2* NY GIANTS over Washington - Thursday - Jim Zorn makes his rookie HC debut for WAS in a tough situation as the defending SB Champs open the season on primetime (6-0-1 ATS in that role). The Giants are 5-2 ATS as a division HF. The Giants begin the 2008 season minus 5 starters from LY?s #8 defense & 22 of LY?s 53 sacks with Umenyiora (knee) & Strahan (retired) gone. The offense however, returns 10 starters with Shockey having been traded to NO. WAS QB Campbell is in his 3rd offensive system in 4 years & hasn?t looked comfortable in the new West Coast offense which demands accuracy. Minus the IND game he has just 141 yds (52.9%) with an 0-1 ratio & a horrid
4.2 ypa in preseason. WAS may not have DE Taylor (leg) available & SS Landry was held out due to injury. Zorn also noted that his 2 rookie WR?s were out of shape & he doesn?t expect them to make an impact early in the season. He also admitted he wasn?t used to the play/clock management after Pre-3. Coughlin made it point to instill a sense of intensity in preseason to focus on 2008 & look for them to earn a comfortable win here. FORECAST: NY GIANTS 27 Washington 13
The Sports Reporter
NFL
SUPER BEST BET *BUFFALO over SEATTLE by 21
Obomanu is out of the race!?to be the Seahawks? go-to receiver in this game. The inexperienced guy was the #1 candidate among a young group of Seattle wideouts being called upon to pick up the slack in the absence of injured veterans Bobby Engram and Deion Branch. We?ve always insisted that wide receivers are the easiest to lose, plug in, and move forward with. However, considering the transition occurring on Seattle?s offensive line, at running back and at tight end, Engram stood as one of the ??sure things?? for a revamped unit. Where does this leave the Seattle offense other than up the Erie Canal without a paddle, in a game they can afford to lose as long as they get ?er done vs. NFC West rivals coming up in Weeks 2 and 3? Matt Hasselbeck played in only one pre-season game at quarterback, wasn?t practicing with his usual receivers, won?t be playing with ?em, either. To add to the degree of difficulty, the opposing Bills are in the third season of a gradual transition to a Cover-2 defense, which has a history of stopping West Coast offenses like Seattle?s. Defensive linemen provide all the pressure, reducing the need for blitzes. When the front four play its gaps correctly, they clog up running lanes and force the running backs to run outside (not where Julius Jones excels), where the corners, linebackers, and safeties all help. If Seattle?s defense was ever meant to bail them out here, the one-game suspensions to starting defensive back Rocky Bernard and nickel back Jordan Babineaux just made that task harder as the Marshawn Lynch-powered running game triggers an upsiding Bills? offense. BUFFALO, 30-9.
BEST BET *TENNESSEE over JACKSONVILLE by 9
The Titans embarrassed the Jaguars last season, running all over their defensive line for over 300 yards and ultimately motivating the Jacksonville defense to get their act together. Despite an incredibly successful regular season and a better than usual showing in the playoffs, the Jaguars made wholesale changes to their defensive line, including the drafting of Derrick Harvey in the first round and finally signing him to a slot-level contract a few days ago. With Fred Taylor getting arrested for disorderly conduct a few nights ago (just what you want from a ?veteran leader,? right?) and the Jaguars seemingly sharing in the over-inflated sense of self that many elite level teams succumb to, there?s good reason to think that Jeff Fisher and his conservative, but successful, ground-based attack will once again stymie an overconfident Jaguars squad who must adapt to a new defensive coordinator. That didn?t work out too well for, say, the NY Giants against a mobile QB and a strong offensive line when the Giants faced a division rival in last year?s opener, did it? Jags might be behind a similar 8-ball. TENNESSEE 29-20.
BEST BET DALLAS over *CLEVELAND by 17
Why did Wade Phillips hire Cleveland?s three-season defensive coordinator Todd Grantham away from the Browns prior to this season? Could it be that he knows that the NFC East games have a good chance to be 3-3, and that he is attempting to secure an edge in the four non-conference games against the AFC North? Hey, after Arizona?s new coaching staff came over from Pittsburgh last year, the Cardinals ? the Cardinals, mind you ? eventually went 4-0 ATS vs. AFC North opponents. So, there you have a little unseen potential for Dallas, on top of all the offensive firepower that everybody knows about. Grantham oversaw a 3-4 defense in Cleveland, the same style that the Cowboys have been attempting to become better at playing since Phillips arrived. He knows where the many holes are in Cleveland?s front ? new DT Shaun Rogers notwithstanding ? and Dallas? big offensive line is good at creating holes on its own to begin with. Adam Jones in Dallas? secondary, and on punt returns, has the potential to create instant momentum swings for the Cowboys. If they didn?t already know who Derek Anderson was after the nice things Cleveland?s offense did last season, then the Cowboys know it now with Grantham there to help attack the immobile young dude while Romo is dancing around and keeping the Browns off balance. The Browns were 7-1 SU on this field, 12-3-1 ATS overall last year. Big whoopity whoop. It?s not last year. DALLAS, 27-10.
RECOMMENDED HOUSTON over *PITTSBURGH by 3
Without inferior showings across the board against their AFC South rivals, the Houston Texans could have been a playoff level team. Achieving an 8-8 record, despite their poor divisional play and overreliance on Sage Rosenfels, shows just how far the Texans have come under Gary Kubiak. Houston is clearly a team on the rise and only injuries will slow their ascent. Meanwhile, the Steelers are a team that has yet to prove themselves to be as good as they can be with Mike Tomlin as head coach instead of Bill Cowher. After a dominating start to the season, the Steelers petered out as the schedule progressed and made very little changes in the off-season to make you think that they can gear up for another extended playoff push. Their o-line might be a little down, while Houston?s d-line might be on the rise. Expect the unexpected, as the Texans take advantage of balmy weather in Pittsburgh to exact an upset. HOUSTON 20-17.
RECOMMENDED TOTAL UNDER 41.5DENVER at OAKLAND
We all know Mike Shanahan has long held an axe to grind against Al Davis? skull for past transgressions, but does his team have the personnel to fulfill his blood grudge against the silver and black? Oakland experienced yet another offseason full of turmoil, but unquestionably upgraded their team. Coach Lane Kiffin finds himself with nothing to lose, knowing that if he is fired he will collect the full balance remaining on his contract ? giving him the rare freedom to do as he pleases without fear of reprisal. That might mean the traditionally high-flying Raiders run the ball more than most teams in the NFL, featuring great depth at running back, including top draft pick Darren McFadden ? this year?s version of Adrian Peterson. Denver is hoping to unveil a high-flying aerial attack to complement shaky depth at running back, but will be held back in the first game due to Brandon Marshall?s suspension and an improved Raiders? secondary. Will any of Denver?s slow-footed back-up receivers be able to find room to manuever against Nnamdi Asomugha and DeAngelo Hall? Look for a game decided on the ground and by the respective defenses. DENVER, 16-13
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 4
*NY GIANTS over WASHINGTON by 6
The Zorn-for-Gibbs move means a more efficient offense for the Redskins, even if they haven?t shown it yet. Nor would anyone be surprised to see Redskins? veteran Todd Collins come off the bench at some point of this game, to give the Washington offense a lift if Jason Campbell still can?t spark a unit filled with decent offensive talent. But that would mean that Washington is trailing, and attempting a comeback against an opponent that has a well-balanced offense with an ability to control the clock and make coming from behind harder than it normally would be. The Giants? defense got 58 sacks when it had Omenyiora and Strahan at the ends last year. Neither is there now, but defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuola is liable to blitz from anywhere, the Giants secondary is pretty good in coverage, and Washington?s best wide receivers won?t be out-jumping anybody. Redskins have a nice defense, too, but Jason Taylor?s absence offsets the Giants? DE woes. The Giants sobered up from a Super Bowl hangover when they watched tape of their mistake-filled, weather-blown Week 15 home loss to Washington last season. NY GIANTS, 27-21.
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 7
*BALTIMORE over CINCINNATI by 4
The world is hating Baltimore, 3-13 ATS last season, new head coach, and with a troubling quarterback situation. Kyle Boller, the veteran projected starter, has a partially torn labrum in his throwing shoulder. The two back-ups are rookie Joe Flacco, and Troy Smith, both accidents waiting to happen. But Boller has not been ruled out of this game, yet. If they were on the road against a good defense, then you?d want no part of the Ravens. But they are home against a bad defense, and former Bengals? wide receivers coach Hue Jackson is on their side now, helping to neutralize Cincinnati?s only strength, while Baltimore?s very competent defense maintained coaching continuity (DC Ryan) despite the head coaching change. Last season?s 0-2 SU and ATS vs. the Bengals was accomplished with 6 turnovers made each time by the Ravens? offense, many of them directly attributable to the mercifully retired Steve McNair. Clean up the mess and get by. But only with Boller. BALTIMORE, 23-19.
NEW YORK JETS over *MIAMI by 3
Last year, these division rivals were among the sorriest teams in the NFL, serving as the whipping boys of the AFC. The extensive humiliation must have spurred both teams into drastic action, as the Jets splurged tens of millions of dollars on free agents ? not to mention a certain quarterback who wears number 4 ? while the Dolphins hired Bill Parcells to become team president, who then commenced to purge the team of the past regime?s players and remake the franchise in his image ? starting with the new head coach, Tony Sparano, former offensive line coach for the Dallas Cowboys. The Dolphins won?t be so soft anymore, but it?s not going to be an easy rebuild when you?re playing with the scraps from a 1-15 squad. The Jets have more immediate expectations, especially with the addition of Bret Favre, but is Eric Mangini up to the job? The utter collapse of last season begs the question of whether last year, or the year before, was the fluke. Their release of Chad Pennington served to immediately upgrade the state of the Miami offense and could provide the Dolphins with an edge going into what should be an introductory game for Gang Green?s newly formulated
group of mercenaries. NEW YORK JETS 21-18.
*NEW ENGLAND over KANSAS CITY by 17
Opponents will be better prepared to handle the explosive Patriots offense this year, on the heels of record-breaking seasons by Tom Brady, Randy Moss and Wes Welker. The adjustments could be seen even in the second half of last season as their string of blowouts were replaced by New England consistently failing to cover the spread. However, even with a widely applauded draft class and a dedicated youth movement, Kansas City looks lost in this match-up. Can Brodie Croyle move the offense without turning it over? Does Larry Johnson have mileage left in those legs, or is this a case similar to Shaun Alexander?s? Herm Edwards can sure inspire his players, but can he game-plan against the likes of Bill Belichick? The Chiefs will grind the ball and try to limit New England?s time of possession. The real question is whether the Patriots passing game opens the year sharply and short circuits Edwards? strategy. NEW ENGLAND 27-10.
DETROIT over *ATLANTA by 7
The Lions got a lot of mistakes out of the way when Mike Martz was the offensive coordinator, developing a passing game that was non-existent under the prior Mariucci regime, where a small-play team would try to sneak its way past people with chicken-QB Joey Harrington. Jon Kitna has some guts ? not a lot of talent, of course. But with mentors like Mike Holmgren,Bob Bratkowski and Mike Martz during his 12 NFL seasons, experience counts for something, even with Kitna. It has been announced that rookie Matt Ryan from Boston College will be the Atlanta starter.With experienced NFL veterans at quarterback, the Falcons opened ?06 and ?07 with 2-5 and 1-6 records. The Lions? defense got the ball to pop out of the other team?s hands 40 times last season, not counting interceptions. For all the jokes that have been sent Detroit?s way, they have actually been groomed to be something since Rod Marinelli took over in ?06. Atlanta has only been jerked around since then, with three different coaching regimes and a mass exodus of veterans. DETROIT, 20-13.
*NEW ORLEANS over TAMPA BAY by 6
The Saints fell far short of expectations last year as the defense failed to reach even the most modest of goals while the offense sputtered because of an inconsistent running attack and poor depth at wide receiver. Even though Drew Brees put together a good season, it wasn?t enough to keep the Saints in the race. Tampa Bay was recovering from a poor 2006 showing to solidify their offense under the guidance of Jeff Garcia while displaying enough defensive acumen to win the NFC South and advance to the playoffs. What a difference one offseason can make! New Orleans spent the spring and summer revamping their defense, emphasizing their defensive line in hopes making their secondary more effective. On offense, they traded for disgruntled New York tight end Jeremy Shockey, giving Brees a steady pair of hands to throw to between the hashmarks. In contrast, Tampa Bay didn?t do much to change the personnel from last year?s squad ? other than a brief flirtation with Bret Favre that may have only served to damage clubhouse chemistry. Look for these teams to go in opposite directions this season, starting now. NEW ORLEANS 26-20.
*PHILADELPHIA over ST. LOUIS by 10
Debuting on the road against the Philadelphia defense -- which might bend, rarely breaks, always blitzes from anywhere and added speed and interception ability when they acquired Asante Samuel -- is probably not the place for a much healthier St. Louis 2008 offense to begin re-discovering the magic. The elusive RB Brian Westbrook is a good weapon to have against the Rams? aggressive defensive front. Screen to Westbrook, 15 yards, firstdown?Meanwhile, if some of Philly?s new wideouts and returners get their share of touches, the Eagles might look more like the Rams than the Rams do. PHILADELPHIA, 27-17.
*SAN DIEGO over CAROLINA by 10
LaDanian Tomlinson was rested during the preseason. Antonio Gates is complaining of nagging injuries. Shawne Merriman is playing on a knee that may give at any second? and the Chargers have the NFL?s best depth to account for all of that. The Panthers are a team that knows this is the season to show what they can do ? with several years of underwhelming
performance following their Super Bowl appearance, John Fox and his staff can feel the pressure building ? and so can their core group of players. Look for the Panthers to come out running, with two good young running backs in their stable, and for the return of Muhsin Muhammed to restore balance to the passing game, but maybe not until Steve Smith returns from a three-game suspension. For this, Jake Delhomme is playing against his first serious defense since he was injured very early last year, with the Chargers being the reigning leading interceptors in the land. They are not about the Jake some WD-40 to help remove the rust. SAN DIEGO, 24-14.
ARIZONA over SAN FRANCISCO by 6
It?s make or break time for the 49ers as Mike Nolan enters what is sure to be his final season in San Francisco ? unless the 49ers unexpectedly make the playoffs or sniff around a .500 record. Regardless of whatever unachievable goals have been set in the Bay Area, the Nolan era is one that both fans and players are tired of ? earmarks of a management team that is sure to underachive, as opposed to a more fortunate result. In contrast, the Cardinals are building from the ground up, an unsurprising strategy considering the management team they hired, and are a mere few steps away from dethroning the Seahawks as the team to beat in the ineffectual NFC West. Kurt Warner?s ascent to starting quarterback has to have won the goodwill of the locker room, who may or may not believe in Matt Leinart?s potential, but certainly have the eyesight to believe in Kurt Warner?s Super Bowl ring and MVP trophy. ARIZONA 27-21.
*INDIANAPOLIS over CHICAGO by 14
?Oh, Peyton Manning missed the entire pre-season for the Colts, so the Bears plus all these points are a lock!? Yeah, right. Mr. Manning has been practicing for many moons against the kind of defense that Chicago likes to play, which Lovie Smith was groomed in by Colts? head coach Tony Dungy, and Monte Kiffin in Tampa Bay. At this point, Manning could probably rise
from REM sleep and drill it into the seam of a zone for 17 yards, and he has learned to become patient and to take what the defense gives him, too. Anybody else think that Indy didn?t even play its best game on wet grass in the Super Bowl win against the Bears two seasons ago? Hard to envision Kyle Orton getting anything substantial accomplished for the often comical Chicago offense. INDIANAPOLIS, 30-16.
MONDAY NIGHT, SEPTEMBER 8
MINNESOTA over *GREEN BAY by 3
"We feel very confident that we can throw the ball to win against anybody," Packers? head coach Mike McCarthy said back in April. ?But we need to improve inside in the run game." Well, the next team that improves inside in the run game against the Minnesota Vikings will be the first to do so in about three years. Flip side is that with Tarvaris Jackson as their QB, there is no way that Minnesota can say that they can throw the ball to win against anybody. It?s not like Jackson has incredible receivers who can separate from the sticky man coverage the Packers love to use. But the Vikings have a terrific offensive line, and one of the most dangerous running backs in the NFL. This is a high-profile, intense, intra-division opener and perhaps the ultimate edge is that Green Bay is the only NFC North team not playing a Cover- 2 defense. Aaron Rodgers hasn?t played against one, or been practicing against one. When the Vikings do their normally good job against the run, Rodgers will be passing into something difficult, where the desired four-man rush (for extra pass coverage without blitzing) got significantly stronger when the Vikings acquired NFL sack leader Jared Allen from the Chiefs. MINNESOTA, 23-20.
The Sports Reporter
BEST BET
*FLORIDA over MIAMI-FL by 9[Miami-FL, plus the points.]
A possible Hurricane named Hanna could wreak havoc with this game, but let?s proceed as if it will be prepped for and played without interruption. Florida may have scored 56 on a transitional Hawaii club, but the total was courtesy of 3 defensive/special teams TD?s and 3 more scores of 33, 48, and 62 yards. They?ll have to work much harder against an ultra-athletic intra-state opponent trying to re-build their reputation. What better way than to battle the poster child for Sunshine State football in their own house? The ?Canes? staff has had months to prepare given last week?s softball of a game against Charleston Southern. How do they hit the 94 mile-per-hour slider that is the Gators? Look for Shannon and crew to run the ball right at the Florida defensive front, an area manned by unproven youngsters. Before they fell behind, Hawaii had some success doing just that with their backs and UGA gashed a better Gator defensive front in 2007. Success here will keep the ball out of Tebow?s hands ? a key to hanging with Meyer?s bunch. Miami was blasted 51-13 at Oklahoma in week two last year and will not oblige the Swamp faithful with an encore. FLORDIA, 27-18.
BEST BET
*WESTERN MICHIGAN over NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 20
The Westerns have dominated Time of Possession but managed only consecutive narrow wins vs. NIU the last two seasons. This time around, perhaps they?ll continue to dominate the clock while also putting a scoreboard gap between themselves and the visitor. To help them create it, they are employing a 24-season mole from NIU, Mike Sabock. As the Huskies? former recruiting coordinator for the last 12 seasons during the since-exiled Novak regime, he knows where all the holes exist in a defense that allowed 434 yards per game last season, and 425 yards to Minnesota last Saturday. NIU?s offense went nowhere on the ground in the Metrodome. Although they transition back into the MAC, they are actually facing a better pass defense in this match-up and probably a better defense overall. Western has pocketed $800,000 from the trip to Nebraska, where they stiffed us. They owe us, and they are dropping in class. WESTERN MICHIGAN, 41-21.
BEST BET
CONNECTICUT over *TEMPLE by 21
UConn head coach Randy Edsall was furious following last Thursday?s opening 35-3 win vs. Hofstra, which is exactly the mindset you want from your road-favorite head coach going against a relatively phony upstart home dog. From Edsall?s point of view, the Huskies have a lot of messes to clean up from that game, especially on offense. But they have a veteran crew and are very eligible to take a step forward. The UConn defense allowed only a field goal after being bait-and-switched by the Long Island boys, who used a quarterback that Connecticut didn?t prepare for. Which is basically how Army?s offense goes into its games, so you give Temple zero bonus points for what might have appeared to be an impressive, 35-7 win against the hapless Cadets last Friday night, where they generated only 265 offensive yards. As suggested here in the projection, several Temple scores were the result of gifts presented to them by Army. Last season?s ultra-sweaty, 22-17 home win vs. Temple in Week 3, which was pre-Pitt, is all the more reason for the Big East boys to take this trip seriously. CONNECTICUT, 31-10.
BEST BET
*KANSAS over LOUISIANA TECH by 35
The Bulldogs? outright win when getting 7.5 at home against Mississippi State sets them up nicely for a painful fall. La. Tech coach Dooley knows the SEC and why not ? his dad is a Georgia legend that played his ball at Auburn. The Big 12 ? not so much knowledge there. As noted in last week?s Recommended winner, Sylvester Croom?s offense stalled, turned it over, and was about as dynamic as a career librarian. Kansas is more the 3 am underground nightclub type and will create matchup problems for a less athletic Bulldog defense. QB Reesing was ultra-efficient against FIU and that trend will continue as he manages drives, protects the ball, and makes plays this week. Should the Jayhawk offense fail to fly at times ? no sweat ? La Tech QB (Georgia Tech transfer) Taylor Bennett was 15-of-40 last week and historically struggles against speed due to his heavy feet and weak arm. Lawrence, Kansas was rocking last week as the fan base reacts to last year?s 12-1 mark. That was for FIU, arguably the worst team in D1-A ? or whatever they call it these days. The visitors are in for a rude awakening. KANSAS, 42-7.
BEST BET
TEXAS over *UTEP by 12[UTEP, plus the points.]
There will be no knee-jerking based on Texas? rout of FAU, and UTEP?s being routed by Buffalo. Different week, different teams, and UTEP's new 3-3-5 defense was the wrong defense to go into Buffalo with, given UB?s ability to run, run, run against wispy defenders like UTEP?s. All is far from perfect in the UTEPian society, as three INTs, a dropped punt snap, and two 100-yard rushers for Buffalo attest. But Mike Price was worried that his Miners would be looking ahead to this rare opportunity to host a ranked, intra-state power on ESPN2.Was he was worried because he was one of those looking ahead, and didn?t bother preparing them for the ho-hum trip to Buffalo? Against Texas, Florida Atlantic converted four of its first five third downs to start the game, with big pass plays of 22, 15, 33 and 62 yards on each conversion. After FAU scored 10 firsthalf points, new Texas defensive coordinator Will Muschamp made some adjustments and the Owls were shut out in the second half, but they had given Texas some full-game ammo when their coach suggested the Longhorns were soft. ?We brought it to 'em, showed 'em we were tough and can play a full 60 minutes," said one Texas RB. But is Texas prepared to do that for a second straight game when they are looking ahead to hosting Arkansas in Austin? UTEP will not stop playing in this one. TEXAS, 42-30.
RECOMMENDED
*OKLAHOMA over CINCINNATI by 30
Sooner coach Bob Stoops is on a mission to avenge last year?s Fiesta Bowl loss to West Virginia. He couldn?t prove anything against Chattanooga last week, so the Bearcats will serve as the sacrifice to the football gods. Stoops put his starters back in last week when leading 50-2 in the second half because as he stated, they ?still needed to be sharp next week?. Cinci is a good squad, but they rely heavily on their athleticism and ability to create turnovers to win ballgames. Easier to take advantage of average Big East teams than against a national power. QB Bradford will have plenty of time to find his targets, especially given the fact that the Bearcats are replacing their starting defensive ends from last year ? one who chalked up 13 sacks. After losing to Boise State two years ago, the Sooners put up no fewer than 51 points in the four games that followed. They may not hit the half century mark this go-round, but the same statement will be made. OKLAHOMA,
44-14.
RECOMMENDED
*OKLAHOMA STATE over HOUSTON by 25
First-year Cougar chief Sumlin was the co-offensive coordinator for Oklahoma the last two years, so neither coaching staff will be surprised by much. Edge rolls towards the fourth-year coach with more talent playing at home. Gundy?s Cowboys have lost only to ranked teams at home in the last two years. Last we checked, Houston wasn?t sniffing the top 25. Okie St.?s offense sputtered at times on the road last week with their no-huddle spread, but got things rolling in the fourth quarter. Gundy took over play-calling duties this season so some hiccups were to be expected out of the chute. Houston switched to a 4-3 this season and will struggle with the new system against a talented and veteran offensive line that is used to paving the way for big-time yards, especially at home.
OKLAHOMA STATE, 49-24.
RECOMMENDED
*WASHINGTON over BYU by 3
An ?also ran? in their own class, the Huskies should fare better by dropping down and facing one of the non-BCS conference?s best. It worked for Willingham?s club last year when they took out Boise State in Seattle, 24-10. Washington QB Locker will be much better against this young defense that returns only three from last year, than he was against Oregon?s excellent defensive unit (12/28 for 103 yards). His giant o-line will also appreciate the change in scenery as they use their bulk to control the offensive front, giving the dynamic signal caller the opportunity to run or throw. BYU chucked it all around the field in Week 1, but will face an experienced secondary that will keep the ball in front. This week in the national media? Willingham will by synonymous with pink slips, BYU with BCS buster.We kinda like Washington, plus points, and cash.WASHINGTON, 30-27.
RECOMMENDED
*PITTSBURGH over BUFFALO by 21
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 6
*MICHIGAN STATE over EASTERN MICHIGAN by 18
The starters who helped power Eastern Michigan?s 52-0 home win vs. Indiana State last week were matched against an opponent that was playing its first game under a new head coach, and using a second-string QB in place of a suspended starter. Ya? think that of the two teams here, Michigan State might have had the better opening tester out on the Pac 10 road at Cal? But one warning about laying points with the Big Ten home favorite: EMU?s little-play offense, which had a longer week of prep time after playing home Thursday (vs. Sparty?s Saturday late-night West Coast commitment which rendered Sunday near-useless for them), can be a very pesky big underdog due to one of its few strengths ? ball security. MICHIGAN STATE, 34-16.
*SYRACUSE over AKRON by 3
The Orange offense is still crawling, with just a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel for new offensive coordinator Mitch Browning. Besides pounding it with the tailbacks (there is only one ball), and all the short passing stuff, there isn?t much else there. Akron?s defense won?t mind this too much. Put Syracuse?s offense on a long field, and more than half the battle is won. SYRACUSE, 16-13.
*MICHIGAN over MIAMI OH by 9
At least the Miami-OH defense won?t have to deal with a QB like Chris Nickson of Vanderbilt, who ran around and through them last Thursday night. Michigan?s defense will continue to play ultra-inspired ball to help protect that currently very lousy transitioning offense. Redhawks coach Montgomery to Rich Rodriguez: ?We?ve seen your offense when we played Cincinnati in ?06 and Central Michigan in ?07 and frankly, they do it better than you do right now.? It?s hard to ??Under??-stand how the Wolverines didn?t lose by much more than 2 points to Utah. MICHIGAN, 19-10.
NORTHWESTERN over *DUKE by 8
David Cutcliffe will ask his Dukies for more than they gave for anyone else in the last decade. But that isn?t Tennessee?s oversized linemen and chiseled running backs out there providing stability for him. The visitors got caught with their pants down vs. Duke last season, out-gaining them by 200 yards and still losing while racking up 13 penalties. Northwestern will show up better prepared, and, unlike last year?s outing when he was injured and out, with all important Tyrell Sutton in the backfield. NORTHWESTERN, 28-20.
*BOSTON COLLEGE over GEORGIA TECH by 2
?There?s just too many issues with this offense for people to deal with,? said losing head coach Crowe of Jacksonville State last week, regarding Paul Johnson?s new, option-based attack at Georgia Tech. ?We had two and a half weeks to deal with it. The rest of these folks will get two days. Good luck, ACC.? Hmmm, will Johnson have immediate success with something different in a stale league, like Joe Tiller did at Purdue? Even if the BC?s decent defense stings the Jackets? offense, don?t expect a comfortable victory with a BC offense that managed just 21 points against a MAC foe. BOSTON COLLEGE, 22-20.
WEST VIRGINIA over *EAST CAROLINA by 4
If you can?t beat ?em, join ?em? Well, not quite. ECU seemed to take its win against Virginia Tech in stride, so there doesn?t figure to be the emotional letdown that many handicappers fantisize about, but often does not materialize after a big upset win like the Pirates pulled vs. Virginia Tech. But the offense that they beat is pretty bland, and West Virginia?s is very varied and will be doing some different things for the first time, unlike Virginia Tech, which was doing the same old things for the zillionth time. Against very good Va. Tech defensive personnel, ECU?s offense gained 369 yards, 100 more than we expected. This is a much bigger game for ECU than it is for West Virginia, because the Pirates are eyeing the BCS bowl bid and West Virginia can win the Big East to get theirs. You might want to dare West Virginia to throw it for 245 yards again, as they did vs. Villanova. That could be a fake stat, and ECU is a proven turnover-getter. WEST VIRGINIA, 31-27.
*BOWLING GREEN over MINNESOTA by 5 The BeeGees led last season?s opener in the Metrodome 21-0 at halftime in the trying-times debut of a new Golden Gophers coaching regime, when the UM defense had few real players and BG?s offense had it way too easy. But Minnesota came all the way back and took a short lead before blowing it and losing in overtime. Still, that was Tyler Sheehan?s first career start under center for Bowling Green. He hasn?t done much to be negative about against bad opposing defenses. So, until Minnesota proves it has a pass defense, we?ll avoid needing them. BOWLING GREEN, 35-30.
*AUBURN over SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI by 17
427 rushing yards will make Southern Miss backers forget they have a first-year coach who installed a new offensive system. RB Fletcher put it simply, ?The holes were there, all I had to do was run through them?. Auburn?s defense won?t be quite as forgiving as Louisiana- Lafayette?s. It better not be because the Tiger offense is a work in progress. Through three quarters against Louisiana-Monroe, Tony Franklin?s offense had no play longer than seven yards and they converted just 5-of-15 third downs for the game. AUBURN, 30-13.
*ALABAMA over TULANE by 27
Mr. Saban and crew had 7 months to prepare for last week?s Georgia Dome battle and it showed. His offense controlled the ball for an insane 41 minutes, had no turnovers, and converted 11-of-17 on third down. At Tulane, Bob Toledo?s offense requires an intimate knowledge of the system ? something that just was not possible last year in year one. The skill players and o-line are now vets of the system and despite losing their RB horse, will fare okay vs. their own class. But the hurricane thing threatened to ruin their prep week for this, and Alabama already owned a game under the belt edge. On defense, the visitors are likely to play more zone defense after struggling at times with man. Tide QB JP Wilson has struggled in his career when forced to make multiple reads against zone defense. ALABAMA, 37-10.
*NEBRASKA over SAN JOSE STATE by 25
If Nebraska?s offense can run all over the inferior foes like this one, scoring and eating clock, then there isn?t enough time for that opponent to get ?er done. The onus is upon Yonus [Davis], San Jose?s sixth-year senior running back, to help keep the ball away from Nebraska. But reports say that two offensive line starters, Leatiota and Castillo, almost certainly won't play until the third game. Hey, they can?t fool us, this is only the second game! Still, no pointspread lead is safe with Nebraska?s defense. NEBRASKA, 48-23.
*OREGON over UTAH STATE by 38
Utah State will collect their game check along with some serious bruises after matching up with a much more athletic Duck team in Autzen Stadium. Aggie fans should consider it a wiif they score double digits and/or if they score some free Nike gear. It is likely that the Belotti will be playing his two freshmen QB?s ? so be patient if siding with team glow-in-the-dark.
OREGON, 45-7.n
*OHIO STATE over OHIO by 35
Visiting Ohio coach Solich and his popgun offense had 1.8 rushing yards per attempt in last week?s close game at Wyoming, and look ahead to the home and MAC opener vs. Central Michigan. They won?t get much on the ground here, either. When they try to pass after not being able to run, they will suffer a pick-pick here and a pick-pick there. Does Solich sacrifice his starters for four quarters in what appears to be a non-winnable game before it starts? The Buckeyes? back-ups could start for Ohio, so they?ll always be in a 1s vs. 2s situation despite an absence from #1 RB Beanie Wells with USC on deck. OHIO STATE, 45-10.
*WISCONSIN over MARSHALL by 24
The Marshall defensive front should improve upon their 4.8 yard per carry mark from a year ago, but this week won?t help the average. Wisky?s o-line averages 316 pounds and has 100+ starts under their elastic waistlines. Throw in the fact that the visitors just made the switch to a 3-4 defense in the spring and you get a recipe for a Madison-style stampede.
WISCONSIN, 35-11.
TEXAS TECH over *NEVADA by 11
Red Raider QB Harrell will seek to play keep away from a Nevada offense that can easily rack up 200+ yards rushing and passing. Unfortunately for the home dog, the secondary lacks experience and will be chasing Tech WRs all over the field ? after they catch the ball. TEXAS TECH, 42-31.
*GEORGIA over CENTRAL MICHIGAN by 24
The Dawgs may let the Chips hang around for a quarter or two, but based on the rate that BCS schools scored on Central last year ? Kansas (52), Purdue (45), Clemson (70) ? UGA will pull away to win by 6-8 lengths. Central Mich head coach Butch Jones let the young, backup matadors attempt to take care of business vs. opponents like this last season, while the guaranteed money in the bank was gaining interest for the university. A first half play with the Vegas dog may not be a bad play, as the land?s #1 could be looking ahead to next week?s clash with South Carolina. GEORGIA, 48-24.
*PENN STATE over OREGON STATE by 19
The Happy Valley faithful will leave ecstatic after PSU controls the line of scrimmage on both sides and uses their 2005?esque dynamic offense to put up points early and often. The Beavers have some athletes on offense, who basically provided all of the offense against Stanford. JoePa has athletes to match on defense and will force OSU to sustain drives. The visitors have turned in some of the most ill-prepped, mistake-prone road performances under this particular head coach, and opened the season with one of those against a highstandard admission Pac 10 foe, no less. Oregon State players make too many bad decisions to be able to provide much of a consistent challenge. PENN STATE, 36-17.
*WYOMING over AIR FORCE by 6
The Falcons played their game in week one ? (1) 76 runs/12 passes and (2) short 3rd down tries leading to 11-of-19 on third down conversions. Life won?t be quite as easy this week for a young offense and first year QB who?s replacing a 4-year starter. The Cowboys play tough defense at home and will play ball control with a big/experienced o-line. Home team is battle tested after a one-point win vs. Ohio and will use that experience to go 2-0.
WYOMING, 27-21.
*NOTRE DAME over SAN DIEGO STATE by 17
The most striking feature of Aztec civilization was human sacrifice, a primitive tradition nevertheless carried on by the San Diego State football program via scheduling too hard, then losing bodies and battles early and often. But as Year Three of Chuck Long?s regime hits, they are almost as healthy, and almost as mysterious, as they can be. New faces have been groomed to be there for a while, and the old ones weren?t much. One of the old ones who was a little something, QB Kevin O?Connell, was dissed by Long when the coach stated that current starter Ryan Lindley stays in the pocket and looks for the third check-down, unlike his fearful predecessor. After working the kinks out vs. triple-option terrors Cal Poly last Saturday, the Aztecs also own a game-under-the-belt edge against the Irish, whose ?highly ranked recruits? have all the pressure coming out of the gate. NOTRE DAME, 31-14.
*NEW MEXICO over TEXAS A&M by 1
More teams will lose 26-3 to TCU this season, so New Mexico shouldn?t be too dissed for that. After all, it?s almost as exactly as we expected it to be, was it not (27-7 Best Bet call)? A&M?s new coaching staff ? not one we?d have assembled but we?re not Mike Sherman -- couldn?t prepare ?em well enough for a home opener vs. Arkansas State of the Sun Belt, so seven days and a trip to Albuquerque to face another stranger is not enough time. Sherman to staff: ?What?s a 3-3-5 defense?? Staff to Sherman: ?What?? During the off-season, A&M?s Year One head coach said of Dennis Franchione?s last team: ?I think we played down to the level of the opponent last year.? Strange, considering the Aggies played the nation?s #1-ranked schedule on the strength scale. If the coach has no idea about what he speaks, you probably don?t want to be on him. NEW MEXICO, 17-16.
*IOWA STATE over KENT STATE by 3
QB Austen Arnaud basically needed only to turn around and execute the handoff in his ISU debut, after South Dakota State?s aborted drives (six of them five plays or fewer). Put him on a longer field, with less time to work with following more effective drives and a score or two by the Kents, and home favorite players might not like what they see. IOWA STATE, 19-16.
*WAKE FOREST over MISSISSIPPI by 7
Wake?s average margin of victory in 2007 was 6 points, so last week?s 28-point Best Bet thrashing of Baylor ain?t the norm. Ole Miss will push back a bit more, but will find the goings tough against a quirky offense manned by an ultra-efficient QB. First-year Rebel coach Houston Nutt doesn?t know what sort of road personality his team might have, making preparation a bit more difficult. Deacon QB Skinner will make fewer mistakes than Rebel QB Snead, and that?ll be the difference. WAKE FOREST, 24-17.
CALIFORNIA over *WASHINGTON STATE by 15
Washington State?s spread offense was a disaster against a very average Okie State defense. Their reward ? a date with Cal?s much better D. The Cougars will be a double-digit home dog this time and will have trouble keeping it around the number if their defense isn?t up for the challenge. They hung in there for three quarters last week, but it gets tough to stay motivated when your offense is stuck in cement. CAL, 34-19.
SOUTH FLORIDA over *CENTRAL FLORIDA by 12
Since declaring war on his Sunshine State neighbor to the southwest for the purpose of starting a rivalry ? to which USF responded with a yawn and some under-the-thumb beat-backs? UCF head coach George O?Leary is 0-3 SU and ATS, resembling the sliced-up Monty Python warrior in the beginning of the Holy Grail movie. They invite USF back for more. But does UCF know what it?s about on offense yet, when they can?t give the ball to Kevin (I?m on the Detroit Lions now) Smith on every other play? If they have to start throwing it around, USF?s pass rush is something to fear. But when USF isn?t getting turnovers, their offense still needs to prove a few things. What we?re rooting for here is a game that plays right to the number, so as not to create any tip-offs about either overrated side. SOUTH FLORIDA, 24-12.
RICE over *MEMPHIS by 2
On C-USA battlegrounds, Rice?s offense tends to leave its mark, as long as QB Chase Clement is the guy pulling the trigger. Memphis has weaponry, a potentially more devastating array than Rice?s, but they haven?t figured out how to maximize it consistently and the defense is on a par with Rice?s matadors, who tend to get flattened by the kind of decent rushing attacks that Memphis doesn?t have. As pointed out in last week?s SMU-Rice projection, which then materialized before the nation?s eyes on ESPN, Rice?s defense has an uncanny knack for coming up with the big pick against inexperienced, or experienced-idiot opposing quarterbacks. Memphis has both ? newbie Arkelon Hall, and holdover Hudgens. RICE, 38-36.
*UTAH over UNLV by 24
The Rebels will have to improve on last week?s 353-yard performance against Utah State if covering is in the cards. Despite a win in the Big House, the Utes averaged a paltry 0.8 yards per carry and had 15 penalties. Match that in week two and the media Cinderella could become an evil step sister overnight. That said, Utah has too many athletes and too much experience to drop the ball at home. Did you know that after losing 27-0 loss to UNLV last season during their injury-recovery period, Utah allowed just 7, 14, 3, 0 10 and 17 points to Mountain West opponents the rest of the way? UTAH, 34-10.
*ARIZONA over TOLEDO by 20
?Zona went anti-passing spread offense by rushing 49 times to 31 passes en route to 70 points last Saturday night. Playing Idaho allows you to do that. Toledo packs more athletes in their travel bag and they have eight in the secondary with starting experience to combat what the Cats really want to do. Problem for the Rockets ? other than having an apparent gambling problem within the sports programs -- is that their pass rush couldn?t bust a grape last year (9 sacks) and won?t do much against an offensive front that is better than most they will see in the MAC. Points, yards, athletes ? that?ll be the general theme of the post-game summary. ARIZONA, 41-21.
*ARIZONA STATE over STANFORD by 16
Lost in the Cardinal?s upset win against Oregon State. was their lack of secondary speed. Beaver wideouts regularly burned the high-IQ safeties using nothing more than superior athleticism. The Devils will provide similar matchup problems in the passing game. Unfortunately for Harbaugh, mounting a comeback will be difficult with a lackluster aerial attack that went sub-100 yards in game one. Look for the visitors to hang through the half on determination alone. It won?t be enough. ARIZONA ST. 33-17.
*IOWA over FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL by 27
FIU?s fledgling football program is not to be trusted on the power conference road. They gained 2.5 yards per play at Kansas last Saturday. Iowa?s defense is better, but Kirk Ferentz will juggle quarterbacks Christiansen and Stanzi. Christiansen is pouting about it. Coach Cristobal to IU?s AD: ?Please send that sizable check to: FIU, 11200 SW 8th Street, Miami, FL?IOWA, 30-3.
*ARKANSAS over LOUISIANA-MONROE by 14
Sure, the Hogs were two minutes away from becoming pulled pork at the hands of Western Illinois. For those expecting the same or worse, check out the following: (1) starting tailback Michael Smith was served with a pre-game suspension, meaning that a true freshman was to carry the running load; and (2) Western Illinois started six of eleven possessions in Arkansas territory ? that?s ridiculous and won?t be repeated. Petrino?s team won?t be worldbeaters, but ULM beaters. they have the better talent and the home field. ARKANSAS, 28-14.
TULSA over *NORTH TEXAS by 19
Miraculously, UNT?s Giovanni Vizza did not throw an interception at Kansas State. He evened things out by averaging only 3.4 yards per attempt. A hurry-up offense that gets only 56 plays cannot be trusted when Tulsa?s offense is shooting for 90. "Tulsa is one of those teams you just really have to be prepared for," UAB safety Will Dunbar said. "If you're not in the right spot, you're going to get burned.? North Texas? defense hasn?t been in the right spot for two years. TULSA, 48-29.
*FLORIDA ATLANTIC over UAB by 11
FAU starting QB Rusty (Big Play) Smith did not get sacked in 31 pass attempts at Texas, and managed to throw for 8.2 Yards Per Attempt. But don?t underestimate UAB?s overall team speed and the cumulative effect that chasing QB Joe Webb around might have on the FAU defense. FLORIDA ATLANTIC, 34-23.
MARYLAND over *MIDDLE TENNESSEE by 11
Holding Delaware?s offense to just seven? points was pretty good for the Maryland defense? or was it, considering that the Blue Hens were playing their first game since 2005 without Joe Flacco as the QB? Maryland?s QBs Steffy and Portis are not to be trusted as they are juggled around by Ralphie Boy as a team from the maligned ACC journeys into a strange land (and what appears to be a bad team, but Troy knew where most of the holes were). MARYLAND, 24-13.
Red Sheet
KANSAS 52 - Louisiana Tech 14 - (7:00 EDT) -- Line opened at Kansas minus 21?, & is now minus 20?.The line in this one has dropped about a TD, from what it would have been before last week's action, & it is simply non realistic. Sure, the Bulldogs pulled the upset of MissSt, much to our dismay, but remember that they trailed 14-3 at one point, before the turnover turned it all around, including a fumbled punt at the 10, followed by a penalty, when theywere apparently stopped. A year ago, we rode the Jayhawks, with their weekly rompers very rewarding. They opened in rather lackadaisical fashion in opening day rout, not allowing an "O" TD. But full attention here, following Tech's success, with plenty to spare.
RATING: KANSAS 90
PENN STATE 38 - Oregon State 10 - (3:30) -- Line opened at PennSt minus 13, & is now minus 16?. No, a 3? pt line movement in the wrong direction is hardly cause for celebration, but this one just sets up too nicely for the Lions. They've been one of the steadiest of home plays, completely dominating all but OhioSt in that role a year ago, & they return 9 starters from LY's 10th-ranked defense, including 7th vs the run. Now couple that with the Beavers managing only 86 RYs (3.1 ypr) in their opening week loss to a Stanford team which ranked 99th on defense in '07. OregonSt has dropped some bombs lately, in travelling to nonconference venues, & steady home play of the Lions (34-16 ATS) extends that trend.
RATING: PENN STATE 89
Northwestern 33 - DUKE 13 - (7:00) -- Line opened at Northwestern minus 6, & is now minus 6?. Going with the revenge motive is sometimes a knee-jerk reaction to a particular contest, with it far from automatic success, but in his case it just cannot be ignored. A year go, the Imps snapped a 22-game losing string, by upsetting the Wildcats, as 16-pt dogs. And yes, it was
done with smoke & mirrors, as the 'Cats enjoyed edges of 25-15 in FDs, & 536-309 in yards. N'Western's opening win over Syracuse was a case of simply wearing down an opponent, with a rejuvenated RB Sutton (144 RYs), & QB Bacher (3 TDs) the catalysts. The 'Cats won their last 2 trips to Durham by 28-10 & 44-7 scores (21 & 19? pt covers).
RATING: NORTHWESTERN 89
South Florida 40 - CENTRAL FLORIDA 17 - (7:00 - ESPN2) -- Line opened at SouthFlorida minus 13?, & is now minus 14. It is normally wise to stay away from bucking a team which has had a game circled for a year, but this just may be the case. In '07, the Knights of CentralFla were simply destroyed by the firepower & overwhelming defense of the Bulls, in a 64-12 wipeout, with an amazing yardage deficit of 543-145. That's nearly 400 yds, folks. And it wasn't a down year for the Knights, who posted a 10-win season. But the Bulls have risen to the 17th spot in the nation, with a renewed sense of dedication. More's the pity.
RATING: SOUTH FLORIDA 88
Maryland 33 - MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE 10 - (7:00) -- Line opened at Maryland minus 14, & is now minus 13?. We originally figured a much closer game, but respected sources have the Terps as a rather comfortable winner here. Sure, Maryland has California dead ahead, & was hardly impressive in its narrow opening week escape vs Delaware, save for Scott's 197 RYs in his first career start (7.6 ypr). QB Steffy tossed a couple of INTs, which resulted in his being benched, but look for vast improvement vs the Raiders, who came up short in their hugely important rematch vs Troy last week. Can't bypass juicy spread.
RATING: MARYLAND 88
BUFFALO 23 - Seattle 17 - (1:00) -- Line opened at pick-em, & is now Buffalo minus 1. Obviously, if this one is decided by the QB position, it would be a no-brainer with the Seahawks in a walk, as Hasselbeck has the edge over Edwards (altho neither is in the best of health). But the Bills are a comer, & have the dominating back in Lynch, who ran for 1,115 yds & 7 TDs in his rookie season, & the Bills have added LB Mitchell & DT Stroud to a defense which held 4 of its final 5 foes to 17 pts or less. At home, the Bills failed only twice ATS last year. Those teams? Try the Super Bowl Patriots & Giants. Host in Seattle contests is golden.
RATING: BUFFALO BILLS 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Alabama, Navy, ArizSt, Tulsa - NFL: Philadelphia, Jacksonville, Houston