Special K
20* S Carolina
Special K
20* S Carolina
chuck luck:
vandy -4
ace-ace / alan eastman +14.15 units ncaa fb
3 PENN ST -17
4 NORTWEST -10
2 LSU -12 1/2
3 MICH -8 1/2
2 Hawaii -28
Gator Report for Week of Sept 6-10
Gator's NCAA Game of the Week Report
Each week in this section Gator will provide his College Games of the Week which will include his Conference, Steamroller and Underdog PLUS Bonus Selections during the season.
SEC GOW (Saturday): South Carolina +5
Steamroller GOW (Saturday): Michigan State -18
Underdog GOW (Saturday): pass
__________________________________________________ ____________________
System Game of the Week:
Game: Nevada vs. Northwestern
System: Play On a College home favorite of 1+ points with less than 11 days rest seeking revenge for a non-Saturday road underdog SU loss in the previous match up last season and not off a SU loss. 18-1-1 ATS since 1991 averages covering the spread by 11.7 points per game.
Selection: Northwestern -8
__________________________________________________ ____________________
NFL Technical Game of the Week Selection:
Game: Philadelphia vs. Green Bay
Technical Set: Play Under NFL teams when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points with a team that had a winning record last season, 23-4 Under last three seasons. Play Under on Game One NFL home teams with a line of +3 to -3 and a total more than 40.5, 17-1 Under since 2001.
Selection: UNDER 44
Phil Steeles Power Plays
4* Nebraska
4* Oklahoma
4* Ohio St
4* Virginia
4* Alabama
4* Oregon
4* Washington
4* Texas A&M
4* Penn State
4* Arizona State
4* Maryland
GOLD SHEET
KEY RELEASES
College---Miami-OH, UCLA, S. Florida, Ok. State
Pro---Steelers, Raiders, OVER Titans/Jags
XTRA
College---UVA, NCST, OLE Miss, VTech
Pro---OVER ARIZ/SF
CKO
College---11-Kansas St, 10-PSU, 10-S. Carolina, 10-Ark State
Pro---10-Dolphins
NCAA LEVERAGE INC.
(from Don Wagners's place)
Louisiana Tech +28 (over Hawai)
2:00p Jim Kruger
California r337
Colorado State r338
o62.0 (-110) / 3 units TOTALS
# 337 California - Colorado State OVER 62
Cal gave up 31 points to Tennessee in their opening game allowing a 68% completion rate for Volunteer quarterback Erik Ainge. Colorado State also gave up 31 points while scoring 28 points themselves. This was almost double the Rams’ 14.1 conference scoring average from last year. CSU quarterback senior Caleb Hanie was very sharp hitting 22 of 27 for 229 yards.
One area to look at closely in playing college totals are the special teams. CSU in their last game gave up some big plays on special teams. Does anyone remember the number one college highlight from last weekend not involving Appalachian State? Yep, CAL WR and return artist especianal DeSean Jackson’s unbelievable punt return.
The OVER is 10-1 in Colorado State’s last 11 games as an underdog of 10.5 or higher. The OVER is 6-2 in the Rams last 8 non-conference games. California is 9-4 in their last 13 games as a favorite.
Take the OVER!
Line available at BetJamaica.com
3:30p Jim Kruger
Oregon r345
+7.0 (-105) / 3 units # 345 Oregon +7 over Michigan
Michigan’s season went down the tubes with their loss to Appalachian State. The team and its fans are devastated. How do you think RB Mike Hart and WR Mario Manningham feel after bypassing last year’s NFL draft to come back their senior season to “win the national championship”? Obviously, an argument can be made that the Wolverines will be so mad they will kill Oregon. Perhaps if the Wolverines got off to a fast start in this game with a couple of quick scores that could happen. My money says it won’t.
Michigan has not done well the past three years in non-conference action as evidenced by their 3-8 ATS record. Just the opposite is true for Oregon as they are 10-5 ATS in non-conference action since 2002 and carry a 25-5 ATS record in their road opener over the past 30 years.
Oregon came alive in the second half against Houston last week putting up 28 points. They are led by dual-threat quarterback senior Dennis Dixon. The Ducks run a spread offense which is something Michigan has had problems with in the past, including going against a mobile quarterback.
A great spot to go against a team is when their dreams have been shattered.
Take the points with the Ducks!
Line available at BetJamaica.com
5:45p Jim Kruger
South Carolina r353
+3.5 (-110) / 3 units # 353 South Carolina +3.5 over Georgia
I like to look for quality teams to play on in the second game of the season who had a below average showing in Week 1. South Carolina fits that requirement as they failed to cover against ULL but were without starting quarterback Blake Mitchell due to a suspension.
The “Ol’ Ball Coach” Steve Spurrier has been speaking highly about his Gamecocks. I like them, also. Last year Georgia shut out South Carolina, 18-0. Spurrier is 13-5 ATS as a road dog and 7-1 if he has revenge. Well, he definitely has revenge as he has been shut out only one other time before.
The past five match-ups between these two teams has not produced a total of over 38 points scored so getting points in this match-up is key. Georgia Coach is 5-10-1 ATS as a home favorite.
South Carolina is a dangerous team and I like them getting the points.
7:00p Jim Kruger
Oklahoma State r396
-23.5 (-110) / 3 units # 396 Oklahoma State -23.5 over Florida Atlantic
Oklahoma State ran into a very good defense last week when they played Georgia hardly resembling the sixth rated offense from last year. OSU could only muster 266 total yards but that should change dramatically with overmatched Florida Atlantic. FAU lost last year to OSU, 48-8, and were outgained by 217 yards.
FAU is off of a nice conference win over Middle-Tennessee State and are probably feeling pretty good about themselves. FAU has done very poorly outside of the Sun Belt. Last year they were outscored 192-20 and are on a seven game non-cover streak against non-conference schools.
The Cowboys are not going to be in a happy mood after their embarrassing loss.
Take Oklahoma State and lay the points!
9:15p Jim Kruger
Virginia Tech r383
+11.5 (-110) / 3 units #383 Virginia Tech +11.5 over LSU
I love to take double digits when a total is lined as low as the 38 in this game. Virginia Tech has the shooting tragedy off of their back. Plus, they are on the road away from Blacksburg. Not many coaches in the nation better than Tech’s Frank Beamer. Va Tech is 12-2 ATS in their first road game over tha past 14 years. Beamer is 51-25-1 ATS in non-conference games at VT. And, the real kicker is Beamer is 21-5 ATS in non-conference action following an out of league win.
The LSU 45-0 win against an overmatched Mississippi State team is a shade misleading. The Bulldogs committed seven turnovers and were playing well until a Tiger touchdown in the closing seconds of the second quarter. I wasn’t overly impressed with LSU quarterback Matt Flynn.
The game should be low-scoring, a defensive battle. The edge in special teams goes to Virginia Tech and I like the Hokies to get the cover.
Take Virginia Tech!
Line available at Bodog
Selective
Saturday September 8, 2007
South Carolina +3.5 for 4 units
Texas -9 for 3 units
Ball St/EST Mich Over 43 for 2 units
Wild Bill
college
Sept 6-9
Over 58 L'ville-MTenn (5 units)...MT defense had probs vs FAU last week.. UL potent...63-10 (W)
Temple -3 (1 unit)...revenge from last year..2nd yr HC Golden looking for W, Temple 20-13
Alabama -3 1/2 (4 units)..Saban factor vs scrappy club...Tide 24 Vandy 17
Bowling Green +18 (1 unit)...BG gave Minn all it could handle, Mich State eratic...M St 42 BG 28
Baylor -6 1/2 (1 unit) Bears at home vs Rice who got beat by 1-AA LW..Baylor 24 Rice 14
Cal -14 (1 unit)...Cal offense potent vs poor defense...Cal 42 CSU 21
Over 60 Cal-Colorado St (2 units)..see above
Missouri -6 (1 unit)...Tigers undervalued...Mizzoui 37 Miss 17
Ball St -5 1/2 (1 unit)...Ball St tougher offensively...BSt 27 EM 20
Oregon +8 1/2 (3 units)..Ducks hang in there on offense...Michigan 31 Oregon 30
Under 63 Oregon-Michigan (1 unit)...read above
Fresno +17 1/2 (1 unit)...Bulldogs tough DD dog...A&M 42 Fresno 28
So. Carolina +5 1/2 (1 unit)...Spurrier revenge mode tough...Ga 24 USC 21
Penn State -17 (1 unit)...Irish no offense whatsover...Penn ST revenge 42 ND 17
Air Force +8 (4 units)...Air Force straight up...AF 31 Utah 17
North Carolina +5 (2 units)...Butch Davis era is here....UNC 27 ECU 24
UCLA -7 (5 units)...Bruins a large amount of returnees at home..UCLA 41 BYU 17
TCU +10 (3 units)...TCU goes for the jugular....UT 24 TCU 23
Over 48 1/2 So. Miss-Tennessee (2 units)....UT will have to score....UT 34 SM 21
Hawaii -27 (1 unit)...Rainbows on potent outburst with Colt at QB..Hawaii 63 LT 27
Auburn -7 (1 unit)...Auburn too tough on "D"...Aub 23 USF 10
New Mex State +8 1/2 (1 unit)...Better offense should prevail...NMSt 31 NM 24
Colorado +16 (1 unit)....Colorado revenge...ASU 28 CU 20
Arkansas State +4 1/2 (1 unit)...Ark St stayed tough with Texas LW...ASU 27 Memphis 24
North Texas +16 (1 unit)...Dog or bust
Inside Info:
3-mich, 2-nd, Tx
Joe D:
25-temp, 20-baylor, 15-mizz, Okla
Net Prophet
CFB:
Wake Forest +8' over Nebraska
Vanderbilt +3' over Alabama
Oregon +7 over Michigan
South Carolina +4 over Georgia
South Carolina/Georgia UNDER 45
South Florida +7 over Auburn
Lexus Sports (ACE) This guy isn't too good.
NCAAF
5 star Alabama
5 star Nebraska
4 star Tennessee
4 star Michigan
3 star Va tech
3 star Notre Dame
Chevy Rock & Roll 400
1 unit on T Stewart +800
1 unit on Kyle Busch +800
2 units on J Johnson +500
NFL
5 star Texans
Chuck Franklin
Saturday Plays:
College Football
1500♦ NORTHWESTERN
The Wolf Pack are still licking their wounds from the beating they took from Nebraska last week. The Wildcats are riding the momentum of their shutout vs. Northeastern at home last week. Northwestern will play in front of the home crowd for the second week in a row, and plan to take advantage of their scheduling advantage against this Nevada team that is on the road for the second week in a row. The Wolf Pack are on a 2-9 ATS run as road dogs, and with the Wildcats anxious to avenge last year’s embarrassing loss to Nevada in Reno, it’s a good time to side with Northwestern here in Evanston.
1500♦ VANDERBILT
Vandy has a great shot to keep this one close, if they don’t win the game outright. They have 17 starters returning, and have covered the spread in 10 of their last 12 and each of their last five meetings with Alabama. The Commodores are also a good bet in the early part of the season, as they are on an 8-1 ATS run in September. The Crimson Tide is coming off a blowout win over a lowly Western Carolina team, but they shouldn’t get overconfident heading into this match-up with the Commodores. Don’t forget that the Tide was a very weak performer in SEC action last year, and doesn’t look to be much improved this season. Side with Vandy at home.
2000♦ UCLA
UCLA is on a 7-2 ATS run in September, and their offense is looking very impressive this year. In their victory over Stanford last week the Bruins amassed over 600 yards of total offense! This one will take place in front of the home fans at the Rose Bowl, where UCLA is riding a profitable 11-2 ATS record in their last 13 home openers. Contrast this with the difficulty BYU has had in their first road game of the year, on an 8-17 ATS run, and the choice is even more clear to side with the Bruins. One final note: BYU has covered only one of the last six meetings with UCLA, so go with the Bruins tonight.
1000♦ HAWAII
The Warriors of Hawaii have been very impressive in their most recent road games, winning their final three of last year by an average of almost 35 points per game. With this high performing offense they will come out strong in their first road game of the 2007 season just as strong. Especially since they are matching up against a Louisiana Tech team that was ranked 119th in total defense last year. The Bulldogs will crumble to the Warriors, who are coming off a blowout 63-6 win last week. Also keep in mind that La. Tech is on a 6-22 ATS run vs. a team with a winning record. Side with the Warriors on the road.
Pointwise Redsheet
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89 Northwestern 34 Nevada 14
89 Arizona state 44 Colorado 14
88 Texas Tech 45 Utep 13
88 Penn state 37 Notre Dame 10
88 Hawaii 63 Louisiana Tech 17
87 Miich st, AF, Wash st