Charlie Sports
Ball State-3' ( 500*)
Miami Fl+11 (30*)
Nevada+10 (20*)
Ohio State-28' (20*)
Nebraska-8' (10*)
West Virginia-24 (10*) free play
MIKE ROSE
Wake Forest +8.0 (-110)
Sat Sep 8 '07 12:00p
I need to see more from this Nebraska club before I can feel comfortable laying this type of chalk in unchartered waters. Sure, last weeks win at home vs. Nevada was nice (52-10), but the Deacons sure as heck won’t be confused with the Wolfpack and they are the defending ACC Champs. This is also one heck of a look ahead spot for Big Red HC Bill Callahan’s Cornhuskers with USC on deck.
I had no problem laying the points with BC last week in Chestnut Hill, nut there’s no way I’m going to fade HC Jim Grobe at home in this spot knowing how well he’s performed in these dog roles over the years. The Demon Deacons were 7-0 ATS in the dog role a year ago, and they’re 18-12 SU off a loss under his watchful eye. He just gets the best out of his men regardless of whether they’re the more talented team, and this is an awful lot of points for him to have in his back pocket at home to cash yet another ticket for us.
While QB Sam Keller looked solid in his Husker debut and RB Marlon Lucky finally had a breakout game, I just don’t trust HC Callahan and feel the coaching advantage decisively stands on the home teams sideline. With the Huskers dominating the Wolfpack on the ground, QB Sam Keller had a very easy day and wasn’t looked upon to save many drives. That won’t be the case this week as Wake did an excellent job limiting BC’s ground attack last week, and I’m interested to see if Keller can rip apart the Wake secondary much like BC QB Matt Ryan did last week.
My money says he can’t, and yours should to!!! Back the Demon Deacons in a role they’ve come through more times than not as they give the Huskers a stiffer challenge than many expect.
Florida State -34.0 (-110)
Sat Sep 8 '07 5:00p
Blood’s in the water people, and Doak Campbell is going to be privy to a feeding frenzy quite unlike any seen in the warm Atlantic waters for quite some time. After dropping their third straight to Clemson on Monday night, the Noles aren’t going to be the most hospitable hosts. Nor should they be, as they need to get down to business if they plan on turning their ACC misfortune around later in the season.
We saw a tale of two halves last Monday night. The first stanza saw us witness a shell-shocked Seminoles club that had no idea what it was doing. Clemson’s speed and Death Valley had them up in arms for the first 27 minutes of the game. Then, after K Cismesia kicked the FG to get them on the board, the Noles turned back into the football players they originally took the field as and started playing the game they were recruited for. The defense came out in the second half and held the Clemson offense to zip, zilch, nada, and the Noles offense found its rhythm. Before you knew it, it was a one score game and the Seminoles had a shot of pulling off an unbelievable comeback. It wasn’t in the cards however, and the Noles fell to 0-1 on the year and Tommy gets to cut the bird at Thanksgiving once again.
As for UAB, the final score of their game vs. MSU isn’t truly indicative of what truly transpired on the field. Spartans HC mark Dantonio called off the dogs in the second half. At one point, I truly thought the Spartans were going to drop a c-note on the visitors. The Blazers are that bad, and they’re going to play the role of crash test dummy throughout the first couple months of the season until the youngsters finally come to terms with what the new regime wants from them.
This one is going to get real ugly. The Blazers are just the team the Noles offense needs to find its rhythm against. OC Jimbo Fisher is going to look like a genius after this one, and Tallahassee will be a happy place for at least this weekend. Don’t have any reservations laying the lumber here. The Woodshed is getting primed and lacquered as I type, and the Blazers will unfortunately play the role of Steve-O as the Noles perform some “Jackass” like pranks on these youngsters.
TCU @ Texas u44.5 (-110)
Sat Sep 8 '07 7:00p
The game the Fort Worth area has been clamoring about for over a decade is finally here!!! The TCU Horned Frogs will go into Austin with their vaunted defense looking to shock the world. Whether they do or not is anyone’s guess, probably not, but they will put their best foot forward and put on one heck of a defensive display. These clubs haven’t met since 1995 when they were both members of the Southwest Conference. Texas holds a nice lead in the series (60-20-1), and they’re a dominating 31-11-1 in Austin winning 14 in a row.
However, last weeks weak effort against Arkansas State must have the Horned Frogs believing they can put an end to their losing streak in Austin, but in order to do so, they’ll have to play shut down defense much like they did last week when they blanked Baylor by a 27-0 final count. TCU has a number of question marks on the offensive side of the ball, and I have to say I wasn’t really impressed with the play of new QB Andy Dalton or the offense for that matter. Granted, it was a vanilla attack with this game on deck, but the fact that they could only convert 3 of 15 attempts on 3rd down has to be sounding off alarms in HC Patterson’s head. If he’s behind the chains for a majority of this game, TCU stands no chance. Texas will find a way to score, so some sort of offensive consistency must be found.
That being said, Texas’ effort last week vs. the Ark State Indians was flat out embarrassing. They were out gained in total yardage, out-first downed, lost the time of possession battle, and lost the crucial turnover battle as well. That was against a Sun Belt team. Now, they have to go against a MT. West team with BCS Bowl aspirations, and they’ll no doubt lose this game if they come up short in those four categories again.
This will be a very physical game, as TCU will bring everything they have on defense knowing full well they’re lacking on the offensive side of the ball. I foresee Texas’ troubles continuing therefore keeping the combined score of this game ‘Under’ this posted number.
Brandon Lang
25 Dime
UCLA
5 Dime
Oregon
LSU
Washington
Washington State
Penn State
LEROY'S LINE (Sunday night show):
this used to be old Dave Cokin doing these but he has been replaced by Barry Holthouse.
(1-2 LW, 1-2 YTD)
CSU +15
NCST +13
VTECH +12
Friday afternoon Leroy's Line Radio Show Selections:
UVA -17
FSU -34
NMST +7
Dave Malinsky - 5*
PICK: Virginia (-16.5)
REASON FOR PICK: 5* VIRGINIA over DUKE
Here’s the thing about bad teams – they are bad. That might not sound all that brilliant, so let’s rephrase in a way that really matters in the work that we do - Most genuinely bad teams are even worse than scores and statistics show. And that is part of the story behind this one.
Duke is the prototype of being a bad team, and carrying a 21-game losing streak should have most thinking they are fully aware of how bad the Blue Devils are. But when you are bad at an extreme level, you get a reprieve on both the scoreboards and in the stat columns. Almost all of the opponents end up taking it easy against you, and you rarely have to take their best punch. You do not have to face the other team’s starters for the entire game, and instead of having an aggressive opponent attacking on offense in the second half, many games find them backing off instead, and just trying to work the clock and get the game over with. As such, bad teams can still cover a fair share of pointspreads, not so much because of any particular skill that they brought to the event, but rather because the other side was not trying very hard.
So what happens on those rare occasions when someone attacks a bad team with their full arsenal? What happened to Duke last week, and what will happen to Duke here.
On Saturday the Blue Devils thought they had a real chance to end the nation’s longest losing streak, facing a mediocre Connecticut team from the Big East. And when they caught a break by returning a kickoff for a touchdown, they actually went into the locker room ahead 14-11 at halftime. But all that did was lead to coach Ted Roof’s worst nightmare – having to face an opponent that was going to come out of the locker angry and ready to go hard the rest of the way. And it was ugly. The Huskies went on a dominating 34-0 run after intermission, and when all of the counting was over it was 45-14 on the scoreboard, 23-10 in first downs and 487-169 in total offense. Now the even worse news for Roof is that his team will get a full game of that treatment this week.
Off of a dismal opening loss at Wyoming there is a real sense of urgency for Al Groh here. In a season in which big things are expected it means a “no prisoners” attitude, especially as he catches flack from the local media in what could be his final season, if things do not turn around. And perhaps the best way to measure Groh for this setting is to look at his own history a bit, both as a big home favorite in a conference game, and against this Duke program. That is what cements the play. Groh has been favored more than a TD five times in the last six seasons vs. A.C.C. oppponents, and got the money every time. The last four seasons his Cavaliers have whipped the Blue Devils by a combined 139-23, for 29 points per game, and in the last two it has been 75-7. That is exactly what we want to see.
Although the Virginia offense is indeed nothing special, it does not have to be in this spread range. The Cavalier defense has a chance to be one of the 20 best in the nation this season, and there is every reason to believe that they can pitch a shutout this week. They did LY, holding the Duke offense to 100 yards, and two years ago it was 31-0 in the fourth quarter before the Blue Devils were able to score against the reserve defenders. And because of some other key circumstances, this is one game in which we can confidently use defense to cover a double-figure spread, which is the final piece of the puzzle.
As bad as the Blue Devils are on both sides of the ball, there is a key element in which they are particularly horrendous – the punting game. It was so bad on Saturday that they used three different punters, two freshmen and a sophomore, and they combined for an awful 28.7 yards on seven punts. That is correct, 28.7. That means plenty of favorable field position opportunities for the Cavalier offense to get untracked, and they make up for last week’s awful showing by breaking this one wide open
Teddy Covers
MinnesotaU
SMU
Virginia
Stryker:
"Blowout"- NEBRASKA
ats lock club
8 washington
8 ucla
7 n mex
2 round robin parlay
6 nwestern
5 bama
ultra Sports :
5* Virginia Tech
4* Oregon
3* Arizona St, Kent St, Nc State
northcoast Totals
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3-* Wyom/ Under 41-
3* Ak/Ohio St Under 49
3* Fres/Tx am Over 51-
2-1 last wk +2.5 u
northcoast marquee plays
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N western-10
Baylor-7
TOM SCOTT'S 5 STAR PERFECT SYSTEM PLAY 31-0!
Byu at UCLA- 6:30 PM EST
Play ON: #362 - UCLA minus the points
In addition to that perfect 31-0 angle, note that Ucla is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 home games and 14-2 SU at home in its last 16 non-conference games. That last stat is important because Byu is a pathetic 12-83-4 ATS in its last 99 SU losses. But angles and stats aside, this game is about the huge difference between Ucla's offensive speed and Byu's defensive speed. It's a simple question of how many times can the tortoise catch the hare when the hare is focused. Bruins roll in Pasadena
PREDICTION: UCLA 34 - Byu 17
SEBASTIAN
20* Mich St. -17
20* Central Mich -3
20* Wyoming -24
20* BC -13.5
30* Washington +3
20* S. Carolina +4
30* UclA -7
30* New Mexico -6.5
20* Texas -9.5
100* Texas Tech -24
Doc's Friday Public Action Report
by T.O. Whenham
When it comes to handicapping sports in general, and football in particular, there is one thing you can take to the bank - the public just isn't very good at it. With a week between games, the general public has a long time to hear the hype and act on it. With the benefit of hindsight, it's amazing how often you see a team that had an overwhelming amount of public support fail to cover, or even lose. There are a lot of reasons for this, but they all boil down to overreacting to a situation - a streak, an injury, a benching, a nasty schedule.
Though the public is often wrong, they obviously aren't always wrong. There are some cases where a game is so clear-cut and one-sided that even a blind monkey could land on the right side. Other times, though, a good case can be made for the team that is getting no public love. In a lot of cases the oddsmakers know which teams the public are going to love, and they will set their lines accordingly. The public will, for example, play the Colts against virtually anyone at virtually any spread, so the books can set the point spread at a point where they are willing to take the risk of backing the weaker side. If they are willing to do that then it often makes sense for you to do the same.
Each week I will be looking at some of the games that the public is jumping on to see if there is value on the unpopular side. We'll analyze why the public is so infatuated and if their love makes sense or if it is doomed to be unrequited. The further we get into the college and pro seasons the more we will know about the teams, and the more the public will have heard, and the more opportunities we will find. There should be some interesting opportunities right from the start, though.
College Football
West Virginia (-24) at Marshall (11:00 a.m., Saturday, Sept. 8) - 95 percent of bets placed on the game have been on West Virginia. That's the most one-sided action on the week, so Marshall obviously doesn't have a lot of fans out there. I'm not going to stand here and make the case that the Thundering Herd are going to shock the world, because I really don't think that that is true. West Virginia is clearly the better team. What is intriguing, though, is the line movement. Despite the overwhelming support for the Mountaineers, the line has moved from -25 to -24. That's not exactly the normal move of books that are afraid of lopsided action. Based on that you could deduce that the line is a bit higher than it should be, and there is some value in Marshall.
Nebraska (-8) at Wake Forest (12:00 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 8) - It's apparently hard for a defending conference champion to get any respect. Wake Forest won it all last year, weren't ravaged by graduations, and yet they are more than a touchdown behind the Huskers. This would make more sense if it was one of the top teams from the Big 12 South instead of the weaker Big 12 North. The point of interest isn't the comparison between the ACC and the Big 12, though. It's the fact that the line started at -6.5 and has moved through the key number of seven. If your opinion is that the Huskers are a touchdown better than Wake Forest then this line movement is very intriguing.
Miami (+10.5) at Oklahoma (12:00 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 8) - Four out of five bettors have been on Oklahoma, but the line isn't moving. Both teams looked absolutely dominant in their first game - Miami against Marshall and Oklahoma against North Texas. The showing by Oklahoma was particularly impressive, and it got a lot of coverage. Miami is coming off of a couple of disappointing seasons, and the public is still down on them. The biggest factor here, though, may be that freshman quarterback Sam Bradford is going to see a real defense for the first time. Miami is a heck of a lot better than North Texas, and Bradford may not be nearly as effective as he was in his debut. For that reason, this game has the looks of one that the public could have wrong.
Troy (+26.5) at Florida (6:00 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 8) - Here's another one where the line is moving against the public. 81 percent of bets have been on Florida, yet the line has fallen from -28 to -26.5. That either means that the books want more action on Florida, or some serious sharp bettors are backing Troy. Or some combination of the two, most likely. Troy stayed within 20 points of Arkansas and their ridiculously good running game last week, so it isn't impossible that they could stay close here.
California (-13.5) at Colorado State (2:00 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 8) - 88 percent of bettors are on California, yet the line is dropping like a rock. It started at -16.5 and is down below the key number of 14 now. It seems surprising given that Cal handled Tennessee nicely, and Colorado State lost to Colorado in overtime. Still, it seems clear that books aren't afraid of California action.
NFL
Atlanta (+3) at Minnesota (1:00 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 9) - The Falcons are the biggest public team there is so far, but not in a good way. The obvious loss of Michael Vick and all the problems surrounding it will mean that the public will avoid them until they see otherwise. The strength of the public distaste could create an opportunity in the first weeks of the season, including here. Atlanta has some problems, but so does Minnesota. They are starting an incredibly raw quarterback, and their running game relies on a player making his NFL debut. Bobby Petrino will be looking to pass more than the Falcons did last year, and the Vikings pass defense was terrible last year. An argument could certainly be made that the public has forced this line to be higher than it should. If you agree with that then there is value with the Falcons.
Tampa Bay (+5.5) at Seattle (4:15 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 9) - This is another case where the public is clearly on one side (83 percent on Seattle), yet the line has moved from -6 to -5.5. Though it might not make a lot of sense to a lot of evaluators, a case could be made that there is value on Tampa Bay given the way the action is playing out.
docsports.com
DR. BOB: 2 OREGON, SOUTH CAROLINA, TULANE, VA TECH/OPINIONS: EASTERN MI, NORTH CAROLINA, MISSISSIPPI, PENN STATE, TCU, FLA INT, BAYLOR, UNLV
STRIKE POINT SPORTS: 6 INDIANA
DOC: TROY
PSYCHIC SPORTS: 3 MIAMI-FLA, SOUTH CAROLINA, BYU
SPECIAL K: 20 SOUTH CAROLINA
ACE/ACE: 4 NORTHWESTERN, 3 PENN STATE, 3 MICHIGAN, 2 LSU, 2 HAWAII
NCAA LEVERAGE: LA TECH
DOLPHIN: 3 TEXAS, WYOMING, CAL
MAXWELL: GOM ARIZONA STATE
SUPERLOCK: TEXAS
TRULINE: TOP BOISE STATE, REG WASHINGTON STATE
TREV ROGERS: VA TECH
DAVE MALINSKY: 5 VIRGINIA
SPORTS REPORTER: 3 HAWAII, OREGON
SELECTIVE SPORTS: 4 SOUTH CAROLINA, 3 TEXAS, 2 OVER BALL STATE
NET PROFIT: WAKE FOREST, VANDERBILT, OREGON, SOUTH CAROLINA, UNDER SOUTH CAROLINA, SOUTH FLORIDA
CHUCK FRANKLIN: 2000 UCLA, 1500 NORTHWESTERN, 1500 VANDERBILT, 1000 HAWAII
KELSO STURGEON: 25 UPSET NEW MEXICO STATE, 10 MIAMI-FL, PENN STATE, VA TECH
CHARLIE SPORTS: 500 BALL STATE
BRYAN LEONARD: 5 SMU
TOM STRYKER: BLOWOUT NEBRASKA
ULTRA SPORTS: 5 VA TECH
TOM SCOTT: PERFECT SYSTEM UCLA
SEBASTIAN: 100 TEXAS TECH
PREFERRED PICKS: 4 SOUTH CAROLINA, 3 MIAMI-OH, 3 NEW MEXICO STATE
WAYNE ROOT: PERFECT PLAY NOTRE DAME, INSIDER UTAH NO LIMIT VANDERBILT MONEYMAKER SOUTH FLORIDA MILLIONAIRE GOY WASHINGTON SOURCE SOUTH CAROLINA