Mighty Quinn
Mighty Q is on the Astros +$110/Cardinals.
Mighty Q also is on Miami -2.5/Texas A&M.
Michael Cannon
Chicago White Sox (+105) at KANSAS CITY
A loser on the Dodgers last night, but I'm still on a 7-2 run with my last nine free plays.
Take the White Sox as the small road dog this afternoon over the Royals.
Jon Garland will start for Chicago and he's been pitching well lately.
The right-hander has allowed only one earned run in each of his last three starts, but is just 1-2 due to a lack of run support.
The numbers back him tonight, however, as he's 15-5 with a 3.72 ERA in 28 career games against Kansas City, including a 2-0 record with a 0.59 ERA in two starts this season.
His mound opponent, Zack Greinke, hasn't been as fortunate against the White Sox in his career. The right-hander is just 1-5 with a 4.67 ERA in eight lifetime outings against the ChiSox.
Take the White Sox as they grab the road win.
3* CHICAGO WHITE SOX
DCI
Thursday, September 20, 2007
FBS Non-Conference
Texas A&M 33, MIAMI (FLA.) 27
MIDDLE TENNESSEE 34, Western Kentucky 32
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
HAMPTON 44, Morgan St. 15
Ohio Valley Conference
TENNESSEE TECH 47, Murray St. 35
THE SPORTS ADVISORS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
(20) Texas A&M (3-0, 1-1 ATS) at Miami, Fla. (2-1, 1-2 ATS)
The Hurricanes look for their first marquee win of 2007 when they welcome 20th-ranked Texas A&M to the Orange Bowl in South Beach.
Miami rebounded from an embarrassing 51-13 loss at Oklahoma by defeating Florida International 23-9 on Saturday. However, the Hurricanes had three turnovers in the victory and never came close to covering as massive 32½-point home favorites.
After barely outlasting Fresno State 47-45 in triple-overtime at home two weeks ago, the Aggies had a much easier time with Louisiana-Monroe on Saturday, rolling up 547 total yards (310 rushing) in a 54-14 laugher. Texas A&M easily covered as a 23-point home chalk, improving to 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 lined contests.
The Aggies, who have faced UL-Monroe, Fresno State and Montana State, are averaging 46.3 points and 446 yards per game (298.3 rushing ypg). Meanwhile, Miami has put up an average of 22.3 points and 302.7 yards per contest against Marshall, Oklahoma and Florida International.
The Hurricanes have won nine consecutive games on Thursday nights, but shockingly, they’re just 3-6 ATS during this run. Also, with last week’s non-cover against Florida International, Miami is now 6-13 ATS as a favorite since 2005 and 10-19 ATS as a home chalk since 2002. Finally, the Canes are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 against teams with winning records.
Texas A&M is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog, including two outright upsets as a road pup last year. Overall on the highway, the Aggies are on a 5-0 ATS roll
One negative for Dennis Franchione’s squad from a pointspread perspective: The Aggies have lost three of their last four non-conference road games (0-4 ATS).
The under has been a lock at the Orange Bowl of late, with 21 of the Miami’s last 26 home contests staying low. The under is also 7-1 in the Canes’ last eight games on Thursday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS A&M and UNDER
Sunshine Forescast
NFL Computer Predictions
Sunday, September 23, 2007
Indianapolis Colts (-4½) at Houston Texans
Power Rating Projection:
Indianapolis Colts 24 Houston Texans 22
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Indianapolis Colts 28 Houston Texans 26
San Diego Chargers (-4) at Green Bay Packers
Power Rating Projection:
San Diego Chargers 23 Green Bay Packers 20
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
San Diego Chargers 23 Green Bay Packers 20
Minnesota Vikings (+3) at Kansas City Chiefs
Power Rating Projection:
Kansas City Chiefs 21 Minnesota Vikings 17
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Kansas City Chiefs 17 Minnesota Vikings 13
Detroit Lions (+6½) at Philadelphia Eagles
Power Rating Projection:
Philadelphia Eagles 25 Detroit Lions 20
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Philadelphia Eagles 27 Detroit Lions 23
Buffalo Bills (+14) at New England Patriots
Power Rating Projection:
New England Patriots 25 Buffalo Bills 14
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
New England Patriots 22 Buffalo Bills 12
Angle: Favored by More Than 13 Points at Home [Home teams favored by more than 13 points ]
Go against New England Patriots ( No additional conditions, 28-35-3, 44.4% )
Miami Dolphins (+3) at New York Jets
Power Rating Projection:
New York Jets 22 Miami Dolphins 20
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
New York Jets 21 Miami Dolphins 20
Historical trend: Take New York Jets ( Domination by New York Jets, 13-2-1, 86.7% )
San Francisco 49ers (+9) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Power Rating Projection:
Pittsburgh Steelers 29 San Francisco 49ers 18
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Pittsburgh Steelers 35 San Francisco 49ers 24
Arizona Cardinals (+7) at Baltimore Ravens
Power Rating Projection:
Baltimore Ravens 27 Arizona Cardinals 16
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Baltimore Ravens 27 Arizona Cardinals 16
St Louis Rams (+3½) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Power Rating Projection:
St Louis Rams 21 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
St Louis Rams 19 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 18
Jacksonville Jaguars(+3½) at Denver Broncos
Power Rating Projection:
Denver Broncos 22 Jacksonville Jaguars 21
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Denver Broncos 22 Jacksonville Jaguars 21
Cincinnati Bengals (+3) at Seattle Seahawks
Power Rating Projection:
Cincinnati Bengals 21 Seattle Seahawks 20
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Cincinnati Bengals 21 Seattle Seahawks 20
Cleveland Browns (+3½) at Oakland Raiders
Power Rating Projection:
Oakland Raiders 21 Cleveland Browns 20
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Cleveland Browns 18 Oakland Raiders 17
Carolina Panthers (-4) at Atlanta Falcons
Power Rating Projection:
Carolina Panthers 23 Atlanta Falcons 19
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Carolina Panthers 24 Atlanta Falcons 20
Angle: Scored 9 or Fewer Points in Consecutive Games [Teams coming off back-to-back games scoring less than 10 points ]
Go against Atlanta Falcons ( Playing at home, Opponent gave up at least 38 points combined in previous two, 6-17, 26.1% )
New York Giants (+3½) at Washington Redskins
Power Rating Projection:
Washington Redskins 26 New York Giants 24
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Washington Redskins 34 New York Giants 31
Dallas Cowboys (+3½) at Chicago Bears
Power Rating Projection:
Chicago Bears 25 Dallas Cowboys 23
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Chicago Bears 33 Dallas Cowboys 31
Monday, September 24, 2007
Tennessee Titans (+5) at New Orleans Saints
Power Rating Projection:
Tennessee Titans 20 New Orleans Saints 19
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
New Orleans Saints 26 Tennessee Titans 13
New Orleans Saints (1 star)
Confidential Kick-Off!! The Gold Sheet!!
America's Handicapping Leaders For 50 Seasons!
11 *KANSAS CITY over Minnesota
Late Score Forecast:
*KANSAS CITY 20 - Minnesota 6
(Sunday, September 23)
Chiefs finally get to play a game at friendly Arrowhead, where they are 12-4
last 16 vs. spread. And there are other pluses as well, with DE Jared Allen
(7.5 sacks LY) returning from two-game suspension, and Larry Johnson now
having two games to get the kinks out following his training-camp salary
holdout. QB Damon Huard played a heady game last week vs. Chicago's tough
defense, with one TDP and another perfect strike nullified by a motion
penalty. Re-acquisition of quick OLB Donnie Edwards gives Chiefs another
blitzer to pair with forceful young veteran Derrick Johnson. K.C. OL
protection held up pretty well vs. Chicago pressure. Meanwhile, Minny QBs
had 5 turnovers at Detroit!
10 *NEBRASKA over Ball State
Late Score Forecast:
*NEBRASKA 41 - Ball State 10
After suffering through a long night of being humiliated by No. 1 USC,
Nebraska will be looking for a whipping boy on whom to take out some
frustration. Ball State is stepping way up in class (faced Mia.-O, E. Mich.
& Navy), and the Falcons will be running into a focused Nebraska team that
has had success as a "bully" recording a 10-3 spread record last 13 laying
double digits. Ball State has suffered key injuries on defense, including
losing leading returning tackler MLB Wendell Brown for the season. Falcon
offensive line starters LT Andre Ramsey and C Dan Gerberry have been playing
through injuries. Ball State yielded 521 rushing yards against Navy, and the
Cornhuskers, who rushed for 413 yards in season-opener against Nevada, will
do similar damage.
10 CONNECTICUT over *Pittsburgh
Late Score Forecast:
CONNECTICUT 24 - *Pittsburgh 21
Long-time Big East scouts firmly believe oddsmakers are overreacting to last
week's results in posting mediocre Pitt (only 13-13 SU under 3rd-year HC
Wannstedt) more than TD favorite vs. experienced 3-0 UConn. Huskies were
noticeably uninspired in ho-hum 22-17 win vs. Temple, but hard-drivin' HC
Randy Edsall will crack the whip and raise UConn's intensity level in this
key Big East clash. UConn's aggressive front 7 should bottle up Panthers'
main weapon RB McCoy, putting extra pressure on unpolished RS frosh QB K.
Smith (only 85 YP vs. Mich. State), who is running limited set of low-risk
pass plays. Meanwhile, Huskies 6-5 jr. triggerman Lorenzen (Iowa St.
transfer is hitting 68%) has a quality corps of WRs and super-soph RB Donald
Brown (240 YR, 4.6 ypc in 2007; 205 YR & 3 TDs vs. Pitt LY) at his disposal.
10 EAST CAROLINA over *W. Virginia
Late Score Forecast:
EAST CAROLINA 19 - *W. Virginia 31
Sure, it's a little scary to stare straight down the barrel of the loaded
West Virginia gun. Or, in Mountaineers' case, their potent spread option and
game-altering components QB White & RB Slaton. But doubt ECU will blink after
covering big prices vs. similar WVU sides the past two seasons and holding
explosive Mounties to only 153 YR (and less than 4 ypc) in last year's Pirate
cover at Greenville. A similarly quick-footed ECU stop unit should make
White, Slaton, and new threat frosh RB Devine work for their yards and points
again. And along with improved play from emerging QB Pinkney, underrated
Pirates should have more than enough to again stay within hefty impost. Note
that ECU has been a very profitable road dog (10-1 last 11 in role!) since HC
Skip Holtz arrived in '05.
10 *UNLV over Utah
Late Score Forecast:
*UNLV 26 - Utah 24
Utah's righteous 44-6 smashing of UCLA last week has yielded a fluffy
pointspread in this one. And host UNLV will welcome Utah after having to
deal with Hawaii's Colt Brennan and all of his speedy receivers last week.
Remember, the Rebels had Wisconsin down 13-12 with two minutes to play a
couple of weeks ago, when rapidly-developing RS frosh QB Travis Dixon hit 23
of 36 for 258 yards. Utah has lost six starters to injury since the
beginning of the season, although sr. QB Brian Johnson (shoulder separation
on his passing arm) might see some action in this one. Despite their own bad
injury luck first two years under Mike Sanford (former Utah assistant under
Urban Meyer), hard-fighting Rebels 7-4 as a home dog in his tenure.
TOTALS: UNDER (43.5) in San Diego-Green Bay game-Prideful Charger defense
steaming after big loss at N.E.; Packers good on defense, not always so good
on offense...OVER (45.5) in Tennessee-New Orleans game-Drew Brees and Saints'
offense due for an outburst in first home game; Titans "over" 5 of last 6 on
the road.
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): ALABAMA (-3.5) vs. Georgia-Bulldogs
rebuilding in several departments and playing first game on road; Nick
Saban's zone-blitz defense will often be a puzzle for strong-armed QB
Stafford...BOWLING GREEN (-20.5) vs. Temple-Well-rested Falcons well remember
LY's upset at Temple; 6-3 soph QB Sheehan running the BG offense will fine
precision and confidence...AUBURN (-17) vs. New Mexico State-Aggies stepping
WAY up in class; Tommy Tuberville needs a big win after last week's home loss
to Mississippi State...SAN FRANCISCO (+9) at Pittsburgh-Niners' defense
substantially improved due to new additions; Frank Gore's presence allows
S.F. to play conservatively on offense...TENNESSEE (+4) at New Orleans
(Monday Night)-Saints eager to rally, but improved Titans a noteworthy 12-2
last 14 as an underdog
THE SPORTS ADVISORS
MLB
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Milwaukee (78-73) at Atlanta (79-73)
The Brewers’ quest for their first playoff berth in 25 years continues at Turner Field in Atlanta, as Jeff Suppan (10-11, 4.72) is set to oppose the Braves’ Lance Cormier (2-6, 7.09).
Milwaukee had a four-game winning streak snapped with last night’s critical 5-4 loss at Houston. Although the Brewers are still 12-6 in their last 18 overall, they now trail the Cubs by a game in the race for the N.L. Central crown.
Although their playoff hopes are virtually dead, the Braves have been playing well lately, winning nine of their last 13, including the last four in a row following Wednesday’s 5-1 win over Florida. During this stretch, Bobby Cox’s team is 6-1 at home.
Suppan has given up either two or three earned runs in six consecutive starts, but the Brewers are just 3-3 in those outings. However, all three wins have come in the last three games, with Suppan posting a 4.15 ERA.
The Brewers are just 3-7 in Suppan’s last 10 road starts, with the righthander going just 3-8 with a 5.44 ERA on the highway for the season. Also, Suppan is 0-3 with a 9.22 ERA in three career starts against Atlanta.
Cormier is coming off back-to-back 7-4 losses to the Nationals. On Saturday in D.C., the righthander lasted just two innings after giving up five runs (four earned) on three hits and four walks. The Braves are just 3-6 in the righthander’s nine starts this year.
Cormier is 1-3 with a 5.70 ERA in five home appearances (four starts). Also, his experience against Milwaukee consists of just five relief appearances, giving up five runs (four earned) on seven hits in just 3 2/3 innings (9.82 ERA).
The under is 9-4 in Atlanta’s last 13 home games. The under is also 4-1 in Suppan’s last five outings. However, the over is 6-3 when Cormier starts this year.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Seattle (81-79) at L.A. Angels (90-62)
The Angels can move a step closer to wrapping up the A.L. West when they welcome the Mariners to Anaheim for a four-game weekend series. Jered Weaver (12-7, 3.90) will take the ball for Los Angeles against Mariners rookie Ryan Feierabend (1-4, 6.80).
L.A. completed a three-game sweep of the Devil Rays with back-to-back 2-1 victories on Tuesday and Wednesday. Although the Angels are just 10-6 in their last 16 games, they still lead Seattle by 8½ games and have reduced their magic number to three.
The Mariners head south from Oakland, where they just swept a three-game series from the A’s, capped by Wednesday’s 9-5 win. Seattle has followed up a 2-15 slump by going 6-2 in its last eight.
The Angels have owned Seattle this year, going 11-4, including 5-1 at home. Going back to last year, L.A. is 19-7 against the Mariners.
Weaver is coming off a dominating effort against the White Sox, as he allowed just a run on four hits in six innings with one walk and eight strikeouts in a 2-1 road win. The Angels are 6-2 in Weaver’s last eight starts, with the righthander giving up two runs or less in all six wins.
Weaver is 6-3 with a 3.93 ERA in 13 home starts, with the Angels going 9-4 in those contests. He’s also 3-1 with a 4.34 ERA in six career starts against Seattle, giving up a total of two earned runs in 22 innings in three of the games, but a total of 16 earned runs in 15 1/3 innings in the other three.
Feierabend is making his first start for Seattle since July 24. He’s made three relief appearances this month in a trio of Mariners losses, giving up just a run on 10 hits in 9 2/3 innings.
Feierabend is 0-3 with a 7.77 ERA in six road games (four starts). That includes a 4-1 loss at the Angels in his first-ever big-league start on May 29, when the southpaw gave up all four runs on eight hits in 6 2/3 innings.
The over is on runs of 16-6 for Seattle overall, 10-4 for Seattle on the road, 6-2 for the Angels in divisional games and 9-6 in this season series (4-2 in Anaheim). However, the under is 10-5 in the Angels’ last 15 contests, including 7-2 at home, and 6-2 in Weaver’s last eight starts.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS and UNDER
Sports Broker - House of Sports Play
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sports Broker won his AL GOW yesterday on Seattle posted here
2-0 last 2 days
Thurs: Texas Rangers
LT Profits
Texas A&M
Miami (Florida)
u46.0 (-110) / 2 units
Wunderdog
Game: Texas A & M at Miami (Thursday 9/20 7:45 PM Eastern)
Pick: Texas A & M +2.5
In the first road test for the Aggies, we like their chances against a Miami team that struggled mightily in their first game vs. a Big 12 opponent. The Hurricanes lost 13-51 to Oklahoma in week two. That game was sandwiched between two cupcakes in Marshall and Florida International. Last week they beat Florida International 23-9 but underperformed as a 33 point favorite. So, can Miami play against good teams? They haven't proven it yet. Texas A&M returned 9 starters on offense and ranks third in the nation in rushing (296 yards per game). They are averaging over twice as many points per game this season than Miami. This offense, combined with Miami's struggling offense, will spell doom for the Hurricanes. After losing last game ATS, Miami is now riding a very poor 11-21 ATS streak at home. They just aren't the same Miami team. They are just 1-7 in their last eight vs. ranked opponents! This is a huge game for the Aggies who have had this one circled since the schedule came out. It's their first chance to start 4-0 in over 60 years! "Aggies defensive back Devin Gregg said this week, "Coach said it best. It can be exposure, or we can be exposed." We think A&M comes to play tonight and gets the cover.
THE SPORTS ADVISORS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
(20) Texas A&M (3-0, 1-1 ATS) at Miami, Fla. (2-1, 1-2 ATS)
The Hurricanes look for their first marquee win of 2007 when they welcome 20th-ranked Texas A&M to the Orange Bowl in South Beach.
Miami rebounded from an embarrassing 51-13 loss at Oklahoma by defeating Florida International 23-9 on Saturday. However, the Hurricanes had three turnovers in the victory and never came close to covering as massive 32½-point home favorites.
After barely outlasting Fresno State 47-45 in triple-overtime at home two weeks ago, the Aggies had a much easier time with Louisiana-Monroe on Saturday, rolling up 547 total yards (310 rushing) in a 54-14 laugher. Texas A&M easily covered as a 23-point home chalk, improving to 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 lined contests.
The Aggies, who have faced UL-Monroe, Fresno State and Montana State, are averaging 46.3 points and 446 yards per game (298.3 rushing ypg). Meanwhile, Miami has put up an average of 22.3 points and 302.7 yards per contest against Marshall, Oklahoma and Florida International.
The Hurricanes have won nine consecutive games on Thursday nights, but shockingly, they’re just 3-6 ATS during this run. Also, with last week’s non-cover against Florida International, Miami is now 6-13 ATS as a favorite since 2005 and 10-19 ATS as a home chalk since 2002. Finally, the Canes are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 against teams with winning records.
Texas A&M is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog, including two outright upsets as a road pup last year. Overall on the highway, the Aggies are on a 5-0 ATS roll
One negative for Dennis Franchione’s squad from a pointspread perspective: The Aggies have lost three of their last four non-conference road games (0-4 ATS).
The under has been a lock at the Orange Bowl of late, with 21 of the Miami’s last 26 home contests staying low. The under is also 7-1 in the Canes’ last eight games on Thursday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS A&M and UNDER
Sunday Dr Bob
One Best Bet and 6 Strong Opinions.
Cincinnati (+3) 3-Star at +3 1/2, 2-Stars at +3.
Strong Opinions
Houston (+6)
Buffalo - New England UNDER (42)
Tampa Bay (-3 1/2)
Chicago (-3)
Dallas - Chicago UNDER (41 1/2)
Tennessee (+3 1/2)
3 Star Selection
***Cincinnati 26 SEATTLE (-3.5) 22
01:05 PM Pacific, 23-Sep-07
There aren’t too many people that are eager to jump on Cincinnati after they allowed an astounding 51 points at Cleveland last week. However, this is the perfect time to play the Bengals as the defense will no doubt be motivated by that embarrassing performance. Cincinnati applies to a very good 49-12-1 ATS bounce-back situation this week and that angle is 12-0 ATS if the team allowed 40 points or more in their previous game. The Bengals also apply to a solid 100-38-6 ATS situation that is based on their upset loss. Cincinnati’s offense certainly looks fine, as they did score 45 points in last week’s loss, and Seattle is a below average team that is having their own defensive issues after allowing 6.8 yards per play to Arizona last week. My ratings favor Seattle by 3 points, so the line is fair, and I’ll take Cincinnati in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 ½ points (-1.20 odds or better) or at +3 (+1.05 odds or better) and I’ll make the Bengals a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 (-1.10 to +1.05 odds) or at +3 ½ (-1.21 to -1.35 odds)
Strong Opinion
HOUSTON 23 Indianapolis (-6.0) 24
10:00 AM Pacific, 23-Sep-07
The Colts are now 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite after barely getting past the Titans last week and I look for that trend to continue. Houston is 2-0 with convincing wins over Kansas City and at Carolina last week and the Texans appear to be the real deal. It was assumed that quarterback Matt Schaub would upgrade a Houston offense with good talent at receiver and Schaub has not disappointed while averaging a robust 8.3 yards per pass play. Schaub is not going to maintain that blistering pace, but he is clearly a better than average quarterback. The problem for Schaub this week is the absence of star receiver Andre Johnson, who is about with a sprained knee. Johnson has averaged an incredible 13.1 yards per pass thrown to him this season and the rest of Schaub’s passes have averaged just 6.3 ypa (7.1 ypa to the other wideouts). What makes the Texans a better than average team is an improved defense that struggled with a young and inexperienced lineup last season. Those young players have blossomed and Houston has yielded just 3.9 ypr and 5.0 yards per pass play in two games. Last year’s #1 overall draft pick DE Mario Williams and rookie 1st round pick DT Amobi Okoye each have 2 sacks to their credit and there is star talent at linebacker (DeMeco Ryans) and in the secondary (CB Dunta Robinson). Peyton Manning leads another very good Colts’ offense and the defense has played well but my ratings would have only favored Indianapolis by 4 points with Johnson playing. Replacing Johnson’s great numbers with the average of the rest of the receiving corps makes a difference of 3 points, so I now favor Indy by 7 points. The reason for siding with Houston is a solid 66-24-2 ATS home underdog momentum situation and the Colts’ recent history as a road favorite. Houston, meanwhile, is 3-0 straight up in their last 3 games as a home underdog, including a 27-24 win over the Colts in week 16 last year, so they should have the confidence to win this game. I’ll consider Houston a Strong Opinion at +6 points or more and I’d make Houston a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more.
Strong Opinion
TAMPA BAY (-3.5) 26 St. Louis 16
10:00 AM Pacific, 23-Sep-07
The Buccaneers bounced back from their opening day loss to Seattle with a resounding win over the Saints and I expect Tampa to win again this week over a struggling Rams team that has lost consecutive games as favorites to start the season. Teams that lose consecutive games as a favorite are only 42% ATS in their next game (since 1980) and St. Louis applies to a 43-86-2 ATS subset of that situation. I certainly don’t mind fading a Rams team with a banged up offensive line and my ratings favor Tampa Bay by 6 ½ points. The situation isn’t strong enough to make Tampa a Best Bet at -3 ½ points, but I’ll consider Tampa Bay a Strong Opinion at -4 or less and I’d make the Bucs a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 (at -1.15 odds or better)
Strong Opinion
CHICAGO (-3.0) 21 Dallas 14
05:15 PM Pacific, 23-Sep-07
The Cowboys have scored 82 points in two games, but it’s tough to maintain such a high level of performance in the NFL and teams that score 31 points or more in consecutive weeks are just 67-104-7 ATS the next week if they’re on the road. Dallas applies to a 2- 20-4 ATS subset of that situation and Chicago is certainly the team that can put an end to an offensive hot streak. The Bears have allowed just 4.0 yppl in their first two games and Dallas was held to just 5.3 yppl by Miami last week and only scored 37 points due to being +5 in turnover margin. Chicago’s offense has been horrible so far, averaging just 3.6 yppl, but quarterback Rex Grossman has a habit of following a bad game with a good game and I certainly don’t expect him to average 3.6 yards per pass play all season long (his career average is 5.9 yppp). Dallas has been below average defensively so far, allowing 6.0 yppl to the Giants and Dolphins, so the Bears certainly have a chance of breaking out of their offensive slump. My ratings only favor Chicago by ½ a point, but the situation against Dallas is strong enough for me to side with the Bears and this game also applies to a 55-17-2 UNDER angle. My ratings project 43 total points and the total opened at 43 points and has come down. I’m not going to give up the line value to make the UNDER a Best Bet, but I will consider UNDER 41 points or higher a Strong Opinion (2-Star Best Bet at 43 points or higher) and I will also consider Chicago a Strong Opinion at -3 points or less.
Strong Opinion
Tennessee 24 NEW ORLEANS (-4.5) 23
05:30 PM Pacific, 24-Sep-07
The Saints have looked horrible so far this season, getting blown out by an average score of 12-36 by the Colts and Buccaneers. New Orleans isn’t as bad as they’ve shown the first two weeks, but a defense that’s allowed 11.5 yards per pass play is certainly a problem. Vince Young has not shown that he can beat a team through the air consistently, but he should have success when he needs to throw the ball in this game. The Titans are averaging 213 yards at 5.2 ypr, so they may not take full advantage of the Saints generous secondary. The most puzzling part of the Saints’ failure has been the play of Drew Brees, who was great last season and very good in the preseason but has averaged just 4.7 yards per pass play in the first 2 games. I expect Brees to return to being a good quarterback and my ratings do favor the Saints by 3 ½ points in this game, but Tennessee applies to a solid 52-20-2 ATS statistical profile indicator and the Titans have covered 9 consecutive times as an underdog, including a win over Jacksonville and a 2 point loss to the Colts last week. I’ll consider Tennessee a Strong Opinion at +3 ½ points or more and I’d take Tennessee in a 2-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more.
Strong Opinion
UNDER - NEW ENGLAND (-16.5) 26 Buffalo 10
10:00 AM Pacific, 23-Sep-07
The Bills are struggling on both sides of the ball, as they’ve averaged just 3.7 yards per play while allowing 6.6 yppl in games against Denver and Pittsburgh. New England, meanwhile, has out-gained the Jets and Chargers by an average of 6.5 yppl to 3.7 yppl. This certainly looks like a blowout, but the Patriots could suffer a bit of a letdown after last week’s nationally televised romp over San Diego. My ratings favor New England by 16 points, so the line is pretty fair. This game applies to a very good 55-17-2 UNDER angle but my ratings forecast a total of 44 points and the negative line value is taking away some of the value of the situation. I’ll consider the UNDER a Strong Opinion at 41 points or higher and I’d make the UNDER a 2-Star Best Bet at 44 points or higher.
Pointwise
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
CINCINNATI over Marshall RATING: 1 48-14
BYU over Air Force RATING: 1 47-22
OHIO STATE over Northwestern RATING: 2 41-10
NAVY over Duke RATING: 3 38-14
GEORGIA over Alabama RATING: 4 27-24
PITTSBURGH over UConn RATING: 4 27-13
WISCONSIN over Iowa RATING: 5 31-10
LOUISVILLE over Syracuse RATING: 5 67-13
NFL KEY RELEASES
TENNESSEE over New Orleans RATING: 2 23-20
CLEVELAND over Oakland RATING: 3 23-20
CAROLINA over Atlanta RATING: 4 20-10
CINCINNATI over Seattle RATING: 4 31-24
PITTSBURGH over San Francisco RATING: 5
Power Sweep and Power Plays
4* Florida Atlantic
3* Purdue
3* BYU
2* Arizona State
2* Notre Dame
2* New Mexico State
Dog: Toledo (+)
POWER PLAYS 4*'s
4* Boston College (w/line less than -31)
4* Notre Dame
4* Colorado State
4* Toledo
4* NC State
4* New Mexico State
4* Wyoming
4* Purdue
4* Oregon
4* Kansas
4* Florida Atlantic
Winning Points
4* Nebraska
3* Army
2* Colorado
2* Michigan State
2* BYU
2* East Carolina