Sunday 10/6/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NFL, NCAAF & MLB games.
Francesa's Week 5 NFL picks
8-5 YTD
Steelers +3.5
Patriots -15
Browns +4
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BOBBY CONN
NFL | Oct 06, 2019
Bucs vs. Saints
1* Free Play on Bucs/Saints under 45½ -109
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MARK WILSON
NFL | Oct 06, 2019
Vikings vs. Giants
Free Play on Giants +6 -110
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PRO COMPUTER GAMBLER
NFL | Oct 06, 2019
Patriots vs. Redskins
UNDER 44
NFL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK: The OU is 5-18-0 (21.7%) since 2012 when you have a +8 or bigger home dog. -- Active to play on the Unders in Washington next week (System is now at 49-11 for the Under!
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MARC LAWRENCE
NFL | Oct 06, 2019
Cardinals vs. Bengals
Cardinals+3½ -120
Play - Arizona Cardinals (Game 455).
Edges - Cardinals: 6-0 ATS with losing record when both teams are coming off division games, and 3-1 ATS 2nd away game of the season … Bengals: 0-8 ATS when coming off a Monday Night game and facing a losing opponent, and 1-4 ATS home versus NFC opponents … We recommend a 1* play on Arizona. Thank you and good luck as always.
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DAVE PRICE
NFL | Oct 06, 2019
Patriots vs. Redskins
Dave’s Sunday Free Play:
1* on Washington Redskins +16
The Key: I like that the Redskins have chosen to start Colt McCoy to give the team a spark this week. McCoy has definitely played well for them in the past and almost never hurts his team with costly turnovers, which is what happened to the Redskins each of the last 2 weeks against the Bears and Giants. The committed a combined 9 turnovers in those 2 games. The Redskins will get up for the Patriots, the defending Super Bowl champs. It’s a Patriots team that has benefited from a really soft schedule with games against the Steelers, Dolphins, Jets and Bills. And they were actually outplayed by the Bills last week as they gained just 224 yards on offense and Tom Brady went 18-of-39 passing. The Patriots are hampered a bit offensively right now with injuries along the offensive line and at the skill positions. They won’t be concerned with winning this game by margin, only with getting a win and moving on to face the Giants Thursday night next week. The Redskins are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams that only allow 70 or fewer rushing yards per game. The Redskins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Take Washington.
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WILL ROGERS
NFL | Oct 06, 2019
Broncos vs. Chargers
Chargers-6 -107
The set-up: The Broncos are now looking ahead to next season after last week’s shocking 26-24 home loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. The nightmare continues for first year head coach Vic Fangio at Mile High and now his team has to hit the road to face a now confident Chargers squad which shook off an 0-2 stretch with a resounding 30-10 win over the Dolphins last Sunday. Sure it was just Miami, but LA definitely has to be feeling a lot better about itself after holding on and then pulling away for that convincing victory. And now star RB Melvin Gordon returns to LA’s line-up in Week 5!
The pick: Coming into Sunday’s contest the Broncos’ vaunted defense had no sacks and no fumble recoveries. The offense and the defense look terrible for Fangio’s team and I have a hard time seeing the mentally down-trodden visiting team putting up much of a fight vs. Philip Rivers on his home field. Consider laying the points in this one.
1* FREE PLAY on the LA Chargers.
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CALVIN KING
NFL | Oct 06, 2019
Colts vs. Chiefs
[1%] Free Play on Chiefs -9½
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TOTALS GURU
NFL | Oct 06, 2019
Packers vs. Cowboys
Free Total Annihilator On Packers vs Cowboys over 46 -110
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COLE FAXON
NFL | Oct 06, 2019
Jets vs. Eagles
FREE PLAY on Eagles -13½ -109
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DUSTIN HAWKINS
NFL | Oct 06, 2019
Packers vs. Cowboys
1 Dimer on Packers vs Cowboys over 47 -109
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JACK JONES
NFL | Oct 06, 2019
Patriots vs. Redskins
Jack’s Free Pick Sunday: Patriots/Redskins UNDER 42.5
The New England Patriots have the best defense in the NFL through four weeks of the season. They are giving up just 6.8 points per game and 243.0 yards per game on the season. Their defense has only allowed one touchdown this year, and just one touchdown in five games dating back to the Super Bowl.
The Redskins, which have really struggled on offense the last two weeks, won’t be scoring many points on the Patriots this week. They were held to 15 points and 298 total yards by the Bears in Week 3, and just 3 points and 176 total yards by the Giants in Week 4. The Giants have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and they still shut them down.
Washington has all kinds of injuries on offense that are making their job more difficult. Top receiver Terry McLaurin was out last week and is questionable this week. Starting RB Derrius Guice is out. Their best weapon in TE Jordan Reed is out. And their top two offensive linemen in Trent Williams and Brandon Scherff remain out, though Scherff is questionable this week. And it doesn’t matter who starts at QB for them because they just don’t have many weapons, and they have a terrible offensive line.
The Patriots were held to just 10 points and 224 total yards by the Bills last week. One of their touchdowns came via special teams. The Patriots will be able to score on the Redskins, but I expect them to get up big early and then sit on the lead by pounding the rock on the ground. They don’t want to risk injury to Tom Brady, and they’ll just be looking to get out of this game with a win as quickly as possible. That’s because they have a Thursday night game against the Giants on deck next week.
The UNDER is 8-0 in Patriots last eight road games vs. a team with a losing record. The UNDER is 6-0 in Patriots last six games following an ATS loss. The UNDER is 38-22 in Redskins last 60 games vs. good defensive teams that allow 285 or fewer yards per game. The UNDER is 13-4 in Redskins last 17 games off a blowout loss by 21 points or more. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
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ROB VINCILETTI
NFL | Oct 06, 2019
Patriots vs. Redskins
UNDER 42½
The NFL Comp Play is on the under in the Patriots at Redskins game at 1:00 Eastern. This game fits the totals system below that has gone under 33 of 35 times the last 5 years and pertains to regular season road favorite of more than 7 if the total is more than 37 and less than 54. The Patriots have gone under 8 straight on the road vs a losing team and 6 of 7 off a spread loss. Washington has a new Qb in MCcoy and it will be difficult to come in against a vaunted Patriots defense. Washington has gone under in 8 of 10 after allowing 150+ yards and 10 of 14 if they rushed for less than 90. Look for this game to stay under. . For the NFL Free play. Play The Patriots and Redskins under the total. Rob V- GC Sports
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Totals4U
Early Sunday's Free Selection: New York Jets/Philadelphia Eagles under 43 1/2
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Atlantic Sports
Early Sunday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Atlanta Braves - 115
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Hawkeye Sports
Early Sunday's Free Pick: Oakland Raiders + 5 1/2
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High Stakes Syndicate
Free Selection for Early Sunday: Washington Redskins + 15 1/2
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Arthur Ralph
SUN NO SAINTS -2
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Platinum Plays
Free Pick: the Cincinnati Bengals -3 over Arizona
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Mike Wynn
Free Play: LA Dodgers/Washington Under 8 Runs
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Nevada Sharpshooter
Your free winner for Sunday : BALTIMORE/PITTSBURGH UNDER the total of 44
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Razor Sharp
YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR SUNDAY:TAMPA BAY/NEW ORLEANS OVER the total of 45
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Vegas Steam Line
Your free winner for Sunday: MINNESOTA/NY GIANTS OVER the total of 43
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Huddle Up Sports
Free Play: Jacksonville +3
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THE GOLD SHEET
Event: (467) Atlanta Falcons at (468) Houston Texans
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: October 6, 2019 1PM EDT
Play: Houston Texans -5.0 (-115)
Since slow-starting Atlanta (outscored 71-20 in 1st H) clearly looks like the worst team in the NFC South and whose HC Dan Quinn could be living on borrowed time, prefer to lay fair price with Houston, which has played all quality defenses in the first month of the season. Since the hurting Atlanta D doesn’t fall into that category, look for Texans’ strong-armed QB Deshaun Watson to light scoreboard vs. the Falcon stop unit, which lacks a pass rush and misses key disruptor S Keanu Neal for the season once again. Similar to what Tennessee D did a week ago, look for the Texans to possibly “double” Julio Jones, since mistake-prone QB Matt Ryan (NFL-worst 6 ints.) failed to threw a TD pass for the fist time in 18 games last week vs. Titans. Moreover, Atlanta now 4-14 vs. spread as a visitor since 2017, while Houston 9- 4-1 vs. line in reg.-season since late 2018. Falcons, who blew the biggest lead (led 28-3 in 3rd Q) ever in Super Bowl history in 34-28 OT loss to New England on this field in SB LI in 2016 campaign, won’t exorcise any demons in their return.
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Circa Sports Million Top 5 Most-Selected Teams
1-4 last week to drop to 10-9-1
Bears -5 vs. Raiders (in London)
Vikings -5 at Giants
Buccaneers +3.5 at Saints
Steelers +3.5 vs. Ravens
49ers -3.5 vs. Browns
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SuperContest Top 5 Most-Selected Teams
0-5 last week to fall back to .500 at 10-10
Bears -5.5 vs. Raiders (in London)
Vikings -5.5 at Giants
Buccaneers +3.5 at Saints
Patriots -15.5 at Redskins
Packers +3.5 at Cowboys
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BRYAN LEONARD
NFL | Oct 06, 2019
Cardinals vs. Bengals
OVER 47
The Cardinals offense is getting more familiar with the system each and every week. But the defense continues to struggle, especially in the passing game. The Bengal offense looked terrible Monday night, but this scoring unit is taking a sizable step down in quality here. With neither team having any postseason aspirations, we can see both teams looking to lengthen the field here. These offenses come to life on Sunday.
PLAY OVER
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STEVE JANUS
NFL | Oct 06, 2019
Cardinals vs. Bengals
1* Free Sharp Play on Cardinals vs Bengals over 46½ -105
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BRANDON LEE
NFL | Oct 06, 2019
Jets vs. Eagles
10* FREE NFL PICK (Jets/Eagles OVER 43.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 43.5. I just think the number here is low enough that this is worth a shot. Jets aren't just down Sam Darnold. They won't have several key defensive players, including maybe the most important in linebacker C.J. Mosley. Last time out they let New England score 30 and I think the Eagles can easily get to that mark. Because the Jets offense hasn't been great and is going to be without Darnold, people are overlooking how bad the Eagles defense has been this year. Philadelphia has allowed at least 24 in all 4 and it's not like they have played a bunch of offensive juggernauts. I think the bye week could have only helped Luke Falk. I think the Jets can at least get to 17-20 and that should be more than enough to push us past the mark set by the books. Give me the OVER 43.5!
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CHIP CHIRIMBES
Atlanta at Houston 1:00 ET
Falcons (+) over Texans
This is NOT going to be a meeting of brilliant NFL coaching minds as Falcons leader Dan Quinn and Houston head master Jim O'Brien have manged to negate the talents of Matt Ryan and Deshaun Watson. The Falcons behind Quinn have lost six straight to the AFC and 12 of their last 13. But when shut down on offense one week scoring less then 15 points they respond the following week and are 23-9 ATS. Texans are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. Take ATLANTA!
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VIC DUKE
NFL | Oct 06, 2019
Packers vs. Cowboys
Packers+3½
Packers/Cowboys 4:25: Packers' QB Rodgers had some huge games vs Dallas. Today, Rodgers will be without his top receiver Adams (toe) but still has a solid supporting cast of weapons to work with. Cowboys' offense stuck in neutral last week. RB Elliott shut down vs a New Orleans defense to the tune of 35 yards on 18 carries (1.9 YPC) after gouging lightweights Washington and Miami for 5.25 YPC. Sure, GB is having trouble stopping the run and it will be a priority for Dallas to get Elliott going; however, Dallas offensive line shuffling bodies due to injuries could make for not so easy sledding. Road team is 5-1 ATS in this series and interesting to note that Dallas is a money burning 2-22-1 ATS at home following a SU conference loss since 2009, including 1-18 ATS as a favorite! GB the call.
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RAY MONOHAN
NFL | Oct 06, 2019
Bears vs. Raiders
Bears -5
Sunday's kickoff from Tottenham Hotspur Stadium is set for 1 p.m. ET, and the all-time series between the Bears and Raiders is tied at 7-7. The Bears come into this game a -5 pt favorite the over under is set at 40.5. The odds for this one opened at -6.5 (Bears) and the Over/Under opened at 41. The Bears meet the Raiders in the first NFL London game for the 2019 season. Chicago is currently 3-1, and they're 1-0 all-time in London. On the other side the Raiders are 2-2 and they're 0-2 in London.
It's hard to think the Raiders will be able to move the ball much on Sunday vs. Khalil Mack and his Bears teammates. The Bears defense is again among the league's best, and are only allowing 11 points per game. They've allowed 45 points in the first four games.
The total is begging me to play the UNDER but I have a lot of faith in Chase Daniels who will likely be in for Trubisky on Sunday. Daniels completed 22-of-30 passes for 195 yards and a touchdown versus the Vikings in relief last week. He tossed the ball to 9 different players last week and I have faith that the 32-year-old will keep on taking what the Raiders defense gives him. He likely won't put up monster numbers, but you'll be impressed by his effort.
Some betting trends of note. Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in October. Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win, and are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win. Head to head the Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Sunday the Bears lock up their fourth consecutive victory, and you'll hear Bears faithful singing "Bear Down Chicago Bears, Make Every Play Clear The Path To Victory" on the other side of the pond. (Since they love to sing in football stadiums over there!)
Good Luck, Razor Ray
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JOHN MARTIN
NFL | Oct 06, 2019
Cardinals vs. Bengals
1 Unit FREE PLAY on Cardinals/Bengals OVER 47
Two bad teams square off Sunday when the Arizona Cardinals visit the Cincinnati Bengals. I think this total has been set too low due to the Cardinals and Bengals combining for 13 points last week. They will both get their offenses going against two of the worst defenses in the NFL this week. The Cardinals are giving up 28.8 PPG and rank 31st in total defense at 417.5 YPG. The Bengals are giving up 27.5 PPG and rank 24th in total defense at 386.2 YPG. Arizona is 12-3 to the OVER in its last 13 road games after two straight losses by 10 points or more. Cincinnati is 30-13 to the OVER in its last 43 home games after being outgained by 100 or more yards in their previous game. The OVER is 8-2 in Cardinals last 10 road games against a team with a losing record. The OVER is 4-1-1 in Bengals last six home games. Give me the OVER.
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Jim Feist
Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Sunday, October 6, 2019
NFL (457) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS VS (458) CAROLINA PANTHERS
Take: (458) CAROLINA PANTHERS
Reason: Your free play for Sunday, October 6, 2019 is in the NFL scheduled contest between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Carolina Panthers. Your free play is on the PANTHERS.
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Roz Wins
Roz's SUNDAY, October 6, 2019 Free Pick
Take : (468) HOUSTON TEXANS
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Sharp Bettor
SharpBettor FREE Play Sunday, October 6, 2019
(457) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS VS (458) CAROLINA PANTHERS
Take : Panthers
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Golden Dragon
FREE WINNER for Sunday
New England -16'
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Kenny Towers
Your Free Pick for Sunday: Tampa Bay/New Orleans OVER 45
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Easy Money Sports
Lee's Free Is Early Sunday Selection Is
BUFFALO +3
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TONY WESTON
My free NFL winner for Sunday is on the under in the London tussle between the Oakland Raiders and the Chicago Bears, as the two hop the pond for the week.
Shortly after the Raiders defeated the Colts in Indianapolis last Sunday, they hopped the pond for London. Meanwhile, the Bears were still in Chicago, as they didn't make it to London until later in the week. I'm thinking the time over there allowed the Raiders time to adjust to whatever they need to, and prepare mentally for this game.
Oakland came up big in Indianapolis, and that win alone will have provided the team with plenty of confidence for this trip, against a Bears team that is banged up at quarterback and has one of the more lethargic offensive units in football.
I wouldn't rule out a play on the underdog, but I'd rather play the low, as I also know the Raiders have a dinged up receiving corps, which will make it hard on quarterback Derek Carr. And since the only person geared up for this game more than anyone else is Khalil Mack, for obvious reasons, I don't think the Raiders are doing much offensively.
I mean, we are talking about a Chicago stop unit that gives up just 290.8 yards per game.
The Bears need to rely on that defense since we're going to see Chase Daniel will start for the Bears in place of Mitchell Trubisky. I don't trust either one of them. Chicago has one good offensive showing this season, and that was against a terrible Redskins team.
Chicago has scored 3, 16, 31 (in Washington) and 16 points. The first 16 was in Denver, against the weak Broncos. Now, against a fired up Raider team, I don't see much more offense coming.
Not from either team.
Play this one low.
1* UNDER Raiders-Bears
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CHRIS JORDAN
Wouldn't it be just like Oakland coach Jon Gruden to have his troops ready for a trip across the pond, one week after strolling through Indianapolis on the way to London, and impressively defeated the Colts, 31-24
Immediately following the game, the Raiders went to London. The Bears stayed in Chicago after their hard-fought 16-6 victory over division-rival Minnesota and ventured abroad later in the week.
It may sound odd, but a good part of my reasoning is behind the mental aspect of this trip for both teams. The mentalities I believe an be in place, relate to how I think each will perform. Fact is, Oakland will be far more fired up to play football in London, while the Bears are in London to play football.
Make sense?
Oakland opened the season with a win over Denver and then stumbled against Kansas City and Minnesota - two teams that can certainly make the playoffs. Going on the road to Indy seemed insurmountable before traveling 3,987 miles across the world. But the Raiders played well, as quarterback Derek Carr was efficient while throwing for 189 yards and two touchdowns vs. zero interceptions. Now he's looking for his third straight with two or more touchdown throws and 100+ rating.
If the Bears lowered their energy even one iota post-Vikings and pre-departure, they're going to be in for a rude awakening.
The Bears' only game they produced more than 16 points was against a terrible Redskins team that is allowing 29.5 points per game - second-worst in the league. Chicago opened with Green Bay (3-1), at Denver (0-4) , at Washington (0-4) and vs. Minnesota (2-2). That's a combined 5-11 this season.
Oakland, on the other hand, has played Denver (0-4), Kansas City (4-0), Minnesota (2-2) and Indianapolis (2-2). That's 8-8. Not that much better record-wise, but I give the nod to the Raiders, along with the motivation in must-win mode.
This one goes beyond the depth and injury reports, not to mention season-long potential. The Raiders will own the competitive edge in this one, so I'm taking the points.
5* RAIDERS
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JACK BRAYMAN
The Miami Dolphins may be the worst team in football, but the Washington Redskins are doing their very best to challenge that.
Since playing the Philadelphia Eagles close in Week 1, the Redskins have been thumped by the Dallas Cowboys (31-21), Chicago Bears (31-15) and New York Giants (24-3).
Now comes the Super Bowl-favored New England Patriots, who just had a close call with the Buffalo Bills, and will be looking to flex some muscles against a team that is struggling on both sides of the ball.
Conversely, the Pats are balanced on both sides of the football, averaging 362.3 yards on offense and allowing 243.0 on defense.
And the one thing I will say about the Pats' defense, is this week might be as close to a perfect game as we saw in Week 2 against Miami, more so than any other week this season. The Redskins will go with Colt McCoy, instead of Case Keenum, which makes me wonder what they're going to do with first-round draft pick Dwayne Haskins, since he's more athletic than both.
Redsking coach Jay Gruden announced the switch to McCoy after practice Friday. Keenum started Washington's first four games this season, all losses, but was yanked in favor of Haskins in the second quarter of last week's 24-3 loss to the Giants.
This offense is, in a word, a mess. I can't imagine it responding to its third quarterback in two weeks. The confidence of the whole unit is shot, and now you bring in a 33-year-old who's never made a name for himself as a pro and who owns a career passer rating of 78.9 with 29 touchdown passes and 26 interceptions. Oh and by the way, his teams have a 7-20 record in his starts.
I could compare him to Tom Brady, and the Redskins' lethargic offense to the Patriots, but why bother? You get the idea, right?
Lay the road chalk with New England.
5♦ PATRIOTS
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CAPPERS ACCESS
(NFL)Bears
(NFL)Bills
(NFL) Cowboys
(NFL) Chiefs
(MLB) Cardinals
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DailySpotPlays
NFL CAROLINA PANTHERS ‑170
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Sports Book Edge
Kevin 'Bubba' Smith
'Railside' Harry MLB Expert
#455/6 Ariz.Cardinals/Cin.Bengals Over
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Priority Sports Info
Roy Maddux
#468 Houston Texans
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Doug Upstone
#451/2 Balt.Ravens/Pit.Steelers Over
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Tony Mejia
#453 Bears
#455 Cardinals
#458 Panthers
#459 Vikings
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Matt Zylbert
W.G.Ramirez
#454 Raiders
#460 Giants
#461 Patriots
#468 Texans
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