Friday 4/19/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for Friday's MLB, NHL & NBA games.
Ben Burns
3*
Oklahoma -6.5
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Spartan
3*
St.louis -138
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JR ODONNELL
3*RUN -LINE GOY
St.louis -1.5(+130)
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Andre Gomes
2*
Orlando / Toronto over 210
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Stephen Nover
1*
Indiana -3
3*
San Francisco -100
2*
Toronto -4.5
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Stephen Oh
OVER 6 COLORADO @ CALGARY | 4/19 | 10:00 PM EDT
My projections see the Avalanche and Flames combining for about seven goals in their Friday meeting, providing a value spot on the Over against a total of six. The Over has hit in four of the past five meetings between this clubs and it is also on a 3-1-1 run between them in Calgary.
2-1 IN LAST 3 COL O/U PICKS | +92
PORTLAND +7.5
PORTLAND @ OKLAHOMA CITY | 4/19 | 9:30 PM EDT
This point spread reflects a lot of people thinking that the Thunder, down 2-0, will play as if their hair is on fire at home against the Trail Blazers. I get that. But the line has swung too high in the other direction. After being swept by Oklahoma City during the regular season, Portland has thoroughly outplayed the Thunder in the first two games of the series. And Paul George may be saying publicly that his shoulder is fine, but his shooting in the series (6-of-22 on 3-pointers) says otherwise. Oklahoma City may win, but I like the Blazers to cover.
69-60 LAST 129 NBA SIDES | +380
5-1 IN LAST 6 OKC ATS PICKS | +389
6-2 IN LAST 8 POR ATS PICKS | +378
BOSTON +3
BOSTON @ INDIANA | 4/19 | 8:30 PM EDT
Though the Pacers will be playing at home in Game 3, they still have a significant problem: they have trouble scoring without Victor Oladipo. Indiana’s best chance to beat Boston is to turn the game into a defensive slugfest and win a tight, low-scoring affair. Meanwhile, the Celtics’ Kyrie Irving rediscovered his shooting touch in Game 2, and that’s bad news for Indiana. Boston covers.
69-60 LAST 129 NBA SIDES | +380
6-3 IN LAST 9 IND ATS PICKS | +268
ORLANDO +4.5
TORONTO @ ORLANDO | 4/19 | 7:00 PM EDT
Down 1-0, the Raptors were desperate to win Game 2, and they played that way, blowing out the Magic by 29. Now the series shifts to Orlando's Amway Center, which will host its first playoff game in seven years. Expect the fans to be wild, and expect the Magic to get back to the kind of basketball that earned them five straight wins--and five straight covers--prior to Game 2. Take the points.
69-60 LAST 129 NBA SIDES | +380
13-8 IN LAST 21 TOR ATS PICKS | +435
3-1 IN LAST 4 ORL ATS PICKS | +200
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Kevin Rogers
Two Dog Night
MLB
Atlanta Braves +125
Miami Marlins +105
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Tim Wilkinson
NBA
Portland Trailblazers +7.5
Trailblazers/Thunder Under 222
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Kyle Markus
NBA
Indiana Pacers -140 (Moneyline)
Pacers/Celtics Over 205
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Stats Analytics Sports
MLB 55-42 (57%) + 13.77 Units
2* Plays
Giants/Pirates Over 7.5
Royals/Yankees Over 8.5
Astros/Rangers Over 9.5
Mets/Cardinals Over 9
1* Brewers +1.5 runs
1* Orioles +175
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Master Sports
MLB
4* #923/924 Houston/Texas OVER 9.5
TONY FINN
FRI AL CENTRAL DOG ~ WEEK (6-1)
Game: (919) Chicago White Sox at (920) Detroit Tigers
Date/Time: Apr 19 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Chicago White Sox -102
View Analysis
PLAY: Chicago White Sox -102 (good to -120)
3% game rating
LIST PITCHERS Rodon and Zimmerman
919 Chicago White Sox at 920 Detroit Tigers
Rodon earned his 2nd win of the season Sunday holding the Yankees to 2 runs on 3 hits over 6 innings, while striking out 5. Entering play Sunday despite a high walk rate of 3.94 BB/9 his underlying peripherals are suggesting continued success.
Rodoan is punching out batters at a 32.9% clip while also generating a slightly higher then normal ground ball rate(45%) and holding batters to a .200 batting average against.
A key to his 2019 success could be his continued effective of his over-the-top improved slider – a pitch he has thrown 43% of the time in 2019 with a ridiculously effective.121 batting average against.
Tigers starter Zimmermann hasn't been the same pitcher since he finished in the Cy Young Top-5 back in 2015. The righty, along with the Tigers overall, were a success early this year (month). Zimmerman surrendered just one run in 13.2 innings with a 10:1 K:BB in his first two starts.
The offensively challenged Detroit offense hasn't assisted Zimm in earning a win , Zimmermann is off a turn in which he allwed five runs (four earned) over 4.1 innings Tuesday against --- offensively and injury riddled Cleveland --- allowing a lead off home run to who? Leonys Martin.
Zimmermann allowed three home runs to see his ERA rise to 2.50. Zimmermann doesn't miss enough bats and while his command has been better across his first four starts than last year the veteran's flyball tendencies are an issue even at pitcher-freindly Comerico. .
Zimmermann has seen his HR/9 jump from 0.59 in 2014 to 1.92 last year.
New Tiger Stadium finds a 20 mph wind blowing to the right field corner --- and pit Zimmerman's flyball plight against Rodon's ground balls and the most probable winner in this contest is easily Rodon and the Pale Hose.
The Tigers are slashing.213/.261/.310/.571 across the last week of games and versus lefties this season ---- a inept .234/.308/.298/.606 with zero.... yes count em... zero home runs versus left-handed pitching this season after 600 at bats.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX -102
BIG TICKET 5% NL GAME ~ MONTH (4-0)
Game: (907) Los Angeles Dodgers at (908) Milwaukee Brewers
Date/Time: Apr 19 2019 8:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -108
View Analysis
PLAY: Los Angeles Dodgers -108 (good to -135)
5% game rating
LIST PITCHERS: Stripling and Chacin
(907) Los Angeles Dodgers at (908) Milwaukee Brewers
Jump the back of Dodgers young right-hander Ross Stripling before he has used his nine-lives. And I mean "nine-lives" in a positive overtone if I was in fact speaking rather than typing... Stripling will be limited this year, in total innings pitched, as will all of the Dodgers starters... a group that attracts injuries like crap draws flies.
Stripling has dominated an undisciplined Milwaukee lineup that will only be successful as far as Yolich and the power bats in the order can take them. Stripling has already beat up on the Crew once this season tossing 8 innings of work allowing one earned run on four hits... one walk... and a trio of strikeouts... Stripling stuff has been so over-the-top since the middle of last year that when a pitcher only strikes out three Milwaukee bats in over 20 plate appearances the team is a .75 percent winner.... Not against Stripling and other pitchers with a hard contact percentage in the area of 30 percent... e.g. Stripling.
Stripling has taken the hill for four starts -- 2.92 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 22% K, 7% BB, and 52% GB. The skills approaching elite in each and every category.... and regardless of the return of the injured.. Rich Hill and Hyun.. Stripling is the teams next Kershaw.. albeit from the right-side of the mound. (4.4 BB% improving to the level of elite in K's 24.3 K% and lacking only a sub.3.00 FIP to be that elite right-hander among the Dodgers deep pitching staff (FIP (3.42) and xFIP (2.99) numbers across 122.0 innings.
How serious can those of us MLB pundits who respect and understand the need for a stopper in the rotation can we look upon Milwaukee as being who they were a season ago and where they stood in September of 2018?
It is barely mid April but this Brewers team isn't going to win a division nor a series in the postseason with Chacin as their No. 1. No way... no fking how.
Let's quickly flash back to June of last year, a bit short of a year... Chacin allowed 8 ER’s on 9 hits and 5 BB’s in 4.1 IP while striking out 5 versus a middling Cardinals offense. Chacin had take advantage of a soft schedule and posted surface numbers of (2.33 ERA across 54 IP and allowing 1 ER or less in 6 of his 9 starts) --- but surface numbers are as untrustworthy as a degenerate gambler. Chacin had underlying peripherals at that time that had him with a 4.35 xFIP -- Chacin went forward to see his ERA jump from 3.18 to 3.82 one start.
The Brewers, who consider themselves postseason worthy? With a No. 1 starter that sports the following --- 6.95 K/9 and 3.91 BB/9 resulting in a 4.76 xFIP, so don’t expect his ERA to stop rising. There’s really no reason to trust or back Chacin unless the matchup is in September against a franchises September call-ups... ESPECIALLY at a minus-money price point or even a pickem.
Chacin was abused once by the power bats of the Dodgers....in a 7-1 loss in which Chacín made it through only 2 1/3 innings, allowing six hits, three walks and six runs. In his previous regular-season start here on Aug. 2 of last season, Chacín was rocked for nine runs in 4 1/3 innings, including three home runs, in a 21-5 rout.... against yes... Los Angeles.
The Dodgers lead the National League in hard contact versus a right-handed starters slider... and if a pitchers best pitch is a slider and they are pushing off the rubber against the Dodgers then it is going to be tough sledding.
And Chacin's best pitch.. and one that he has to be getting swings and misses outside of the zone against right-handed hitters... isn't working.. it is time for the Fat Lady to sing.
This Brewers bunch will win games with their bats... not their gloves nor their arms..... And when Chacin was named the Opening Day starter for the Brewers anyone with half an understanding of today's MLB knew the team did nothing in the offseason to upgrade a less than average big league staff.
Chacin won't miss enough of the hard contact swinging bats of the Dodgers (20% K) and if you are going to depend on batted ball luck when investing in MLB betting boards it will result in a negative on most nights. Do not support Chacin in most situations this year.. especially against a Cy Young candidate that is backed by power bats that LA sports. Chacin's 250 BABIP which is well below his career .279 BABIP. His hard-hit rate also rose to 37 percent a year ago...
Expecting Chacin to lead a postseason staff is fools gold... and throwing good money after bad.... .
LA DODGERS -108
FINN FRI SENIOR CIRCUIT DOG EAT DOG (6-1)
Game: (909) New York Mets at (910) St. Louis Cardinals
Date/Time: Apr 19 2019 8:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Greek
Play Rating: 3%
Play: New York Mets +134
View Analysis
PLAY: New York Mets +130 (good to +110)
3% game rating
LIST PITCHERS Vargas and Wainwright
(909) New York Mets at (910) St. Louis Cardinals
Quickly in the National League on Friday night two pitchers that are nothing short of fifth starters, if that, on an average Major League team, top to bottom. The Mets are sticking with Vargas in their rotation because the front office is waiting on what this team will be by mid May or early June. At that time you will seee the fighting division rival Philly for the one-year rights to cabable and unsigned Dallas K.
Vargas is streaky and a streaming underdog when squaring off against the soft -- and there isn't too many lineups in baseball as undisciplined at the plate than the current Redbirds.
The Cardinals are hitting ..185 versus southpaws this season. Their OBP is stupid low against lefties,, at .288 .an all of this as a lineup that has shown zero power against left-handed starters.... just a .370 SLG.
The lone reason for Wainwright being a favorite in this contest is his reputation and... plain and simple... Vargas' surface numbers. Wainwright can't miss enough bats this point in his career and will continue to walk as many batters as he strike's out. He doesn't trust his stuff. He, like Vargas, is a matchup consideration, or a streaming "play on" when the sitaution calls for it.
Wainwright struggled in his season debut (4 IP, 4 ER, 4 hits, 4 BB, 3 Ks -- and not the base on balls. -- again he doesn't miss enough bats and doesn't trust his own stuff... not at nearly 100 years of age.
The walks continue a trend -- that has saw his walk rate balloon but about half a walk per 9 each of the past 4 seasons (1.3 BB/9 in 2015 all the way up to 4.0 BB/9 last year).
Wainwright's scuffled this season have come against bottom-feeding offenses... e.g. Pirates.
He is always pitching from behind and would not be in any team's starting rotation had he not improved the SwgStr% of his curveball.
At 37 years old it is difficult to imagine Wainwright doing anything more than walking as many as he punches out along with a combvination of losing much needed velocity and command on his very hittable two and four seamers...
The bottom line truth in this NL event is that the wrong team is favored...
Trust the Mets to capture more hits on offense, more strikeouts from their starter, enjoy an overwhelmingly better bullpen and an offense that is capable of the bloop and a bomb more than the other... that team and winner in Busch tonight is New York
NEW YORK METS +130
FINN FRI AL WEST TOP TOTAL (22-13)
Game: (925) Seattle Mariners at (926) Los Angeles Angels
Date/Time: Apr 19 2019 10:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Under 9.0 (-110)
View Analysis
PLAY: Under the Total of 9 runs (good to 8.5)
3% game rating
LIST PITCHERS Gonzales and Pena
(925) Seattle Mariners at (926) Los Angeles Angels
Marco Gonzales was the Mariners American Opening Day starter for the Mariners -- in reality his second start of the year -- as he pitched the opener in Japan. Marco G tossed 6 inning and gave up 3 ER on 7 H (2 HR), 1 BB, and 4 K.
Gonzo worked 166.2 inning a season ago owning a 4.00 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. The Seattle southpaw doesn't walk batters (5% BB) without elite swing and miss stuff (21% K). Gonzales mixes the speed of his arsenal like a savvy veteran. He has four pitches -- and uses each one a minimum of 20%+ of the time.
What Gonzo brings to the table, the mound mind you, is what you see -- and he will be who he is for the rest of his career. A strike thrower that is a plus-money investment when facing a lineup like the Halos -- That LA line, versus left-handed pitching -- is slashing a ridiculously and porous .162 /.271/.260/.531 --- yes the Halos are hitting .162 versus lefties this season with a team on base percentage that would get a minor leaguer sent back to college.
Felix Peña is starting because Andrew Heaney is on the injured list -- Pena will have his share of fifteen minutes this season. He is off a start in which he retired the first eight batters he faced -- including three by strikeout -- until running into trouble with two outs in the third. That trouble I mention were seeing eye singles.... back-to-back singles to Josh Phegley and Robbie Grossman -- before hitting Matt Chapman to load the bases. Stephen Piscotty made him pay with one of the only balls with an exit velocity of 90-plus mph in the start... a hard hit single up the middle to bring home the game’s first two runs.
Pena had a sick-good spring in the hitter friendly venues of the Cactus League. Pena struck out 25 in 14 2/3 innings-- his improved change up makes him dangerous when he is ahead in the count and commanding his fastball. changeup. It is essential that when backing Pena it is against a lineup that won't and can't take advantage of his flyball tendencies and command issues....Pena is in his prime and his 4.06 xFIP and 4.09 SIERA are what you get with the veteran.
Again, push Pena to the mound against a team that is struggling, swinging at pitches outside the zone... e.g. Seattle and you have a plus-money monger in your hip pocket. Pena's K/9 is solid at 8.78 along with an Okay 3.28 BB/9.
The Mariners have comeback to earth after a stretch in which they won seemingly everyday for a two week stretch... but did so against pedestrian offenses. Seattle is hitting .201 over the last seven days with an OBP of .278 while slugging .363. Now this is a batting order that Pena can succeed against.
UNDER THE TOTAL OF 9
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PICKS2PLAY
NBA 9:35 pm Portland Trail Blazers at Oklahoma City Thunder Oklahoma City Thunder -7.5 for 1 units
MLB 7:05 pm Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees New York Yankees -165 for 1 units
ACTION
MLB 10:07 pm Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels -120 for 1 units
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Sportsvipvegas 4/19
Arizona +164
miami +101
dodgers -106
minny -2.5 (+130)
houston -2.5 (+105)
colorado -1.5 (+130)
nyy -1.5 (+105)
detroit -1 (+130)
angels -1 (+124)
oakland -1 (+107)
cleveland -1 (+112)
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Michael Rusk
HOUSTON -244
HOUSTON @ TEXAS | 4/19 | 8:05 PM EDT
Justin Verlander's splits speak for themselves. Last season he was 12-2 on the road with a 2.14 ERA. More importantly for this matchup, he went 2-0 at Globe Life Park with a 2.25 ERA. The Rangers are in the midst of a four-game win streak and are a tad overvalued. Lay the Juice.
16-7-1 IN LAST 24 MLB PICKS | +754
MINNESOTA -190
MINNESOTA @ BALTIMORE | 4/19 | 7:05 PM EDT
Road favorites are usually not my go-to, but I love Twins starter Jose Berrios, who is 2-0 at Camden Yards with a 1.76 ERA, in this spot. He is far more comfortable at Camden Yards than the Orioles' own Alex Cobb (3-8, 4.73 ERA at that ballpark). The splits indicate the Twins should run away with this one. After losing three of four at home against the Blue Jays, Minnesota will start this series with a convincing victory Friday night.
16-7-1 IN LAST 24 MLB PICKS | +754
3-2 IN LAST 5 MIN ML PICKS | +119
2-1 IN LAST 3 BAL ML PICKS | +105
N.Y. YANKEES -179
KANSAS CITY @ N.Y. YANKEES | 4/19 | 7:05 PM EDT
I’ll be the first one to say that CC Sabathia doesn’t have the velocity he once had. That being said, in his season debut against the White Sox, his location was impeccable. In his last start at home against the Royals, he was more than a 3-1 favorite. Grabbing the Yankees at home facing an overvalued Royals team that has won five out of its last seven is a no-brainer. I’ll take the Bronx Bombers here.
16-7-1 IN LAST 24 MLB PICKS | +754
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Dave essler
3*
Orlando +6
1*
Miami +105
1*
Atlanta +125
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King creole
2*
Oklahoma / Portland over 222
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Fezzik
2*
Arizona / cubs under 7
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Tom No Foolery Fornelli
TAMPA BAY -120
BOSTON @ TAMPA BAY | 4/19 | 7:10 PM EDT
A Tampa offense that's hitting the ball harder than any other team in baseball will face a starter in Eduardo Rodriguez who is prone to giving up fly balls. Fly balls that are hit hard tend to travel pretty far! Combine that with a Boston bullpen that currently has a 5.15 ERA, and I like the Rays at this price. If the Red Sox were the same team but named the Orioles the Rays would be at least -150 in this spot.
2-1 IN LAST 3 MLB PICKS | +39
3-0 IN LAST 3 BOS ML PICKS | +300
OKLAHOMA CITY -8
PORTLAND @ OKLAHOMA CITY | 4/19 | 9:30 PM EDT
The home team has been favored in each of the last five meetings, and it's gone 4-1 ATS in those five meetings. On the season Portland is 26-16-1 ATS at home and 34-19-1 ATS as a favorite, but it's only 21-20 ATS on the road, and 13-17 ATS as an underdog. As an underdog on the road, the Blazers are 9-15 ATS. Furthermore, the Thunder have played Portland at home twice this season, and they won both games by nine points.
67-40 IN LAST 107 NBA PICKS | +2289
2-1 IN LAST 3 OKC ATS PICKS | +89
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vegas killers the shark
the shark
blazers/jazz over 54.5 first quarter
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WUnderdog
MLB
Cleveland-125 vs atlanta
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Dirty Bear Sports From Cappertek
MLB:
BOS/TB F5 UNDER 4.5 -120 3u
MIL F5 ML +100 1u
SEA/LAA F5 UNDER 5 -110 1u
MLB Season: 14-13-1 54% -5.80
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BIG AL
Our 3 selections include the Raptors/Magic Under, the Indiana Pacers, and the Oklahoma City Thunder.
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto/Orlando game to go 'under' the total. The first two games of this series went 'under' the total. And that's been "par for the course" in this series, as these two teams also went 'under' in three of their four meetings in the regular season this year (and 13 of the last 18, dating back to 2014). The 'under' also falls into a super NBA Playoffs Totals system of mine which is 136-89 (60.4%) since 1991. Take the 'under.'
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers minus the points over Boston. The Pacers were up seven points at halftime in Game 1, and were up 11 points after 3 quarters in Game 2, but blew both leads. Thus, Indiana finds itself in an 0-2 hole in the series. The good news for Indy, however, is that it's an awesome 139-73-9 ATS off a loss, if it was rested, and playing with revenge vs. an opponent off a straight-up win. Take the Pacers to win (and cover) Game 3.
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma City Thunder minus the points over Portland. The Thunder were blown out by 20 points in Game 2, and now return home for a "must win" game 3. We'll lay the points with the Thunder, as favorites of -3+ points, off a Playoff loss (as an underdog) by 20+ points, have cashed 68.4% since 1991. Take Oklahoma City. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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Miller locks
7:05 pm est nba
toronto raptors vs. Orlando magic
pick: Orlando magic +5.5 (-105)
risk: 11 units
8:35 pm est nba
boston celtics vs. Indiana pacers
pick: Boston celtics +3 (-108)
risk: 11 units
9:35 pm est nba
portland trail blazers vs. Oklahoma city thunder
pick: Oklahoma city thunder -8 (-108)
risk: 11 units
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The Spot Player MLB (68-47 season)
2* Padres -126
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Strike Point Sports
7 Unit port +7.5
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