Free NCAAB, NHL & NBA Premium Service Plays For Thursday 4/4/19

Stephen Nover

3*GOW

Winnipeg -105
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Goodfella

3*
NIT GOY

LIPSCOMB +2
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Spartan

3*

Lipscomb +1.5
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Ken Thomson

3*
Lipscomb +1.5
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Tony Finn

FINN THU NITE NL PRIVATE PLAY (9-1)
Game: (957) Chicago Cubs at (958) Atlanta Braves
Date/Time: Apr 4 2019 7:20 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Greek
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Atlanta Braves -115

View Analysis

PLAY: Atlanta Braves -115 (good to -140)
4% game rating
LIST PITCHERS: Darvish and Fried
(957) Chicago Cubs at (958) Atlanta Braves
First and foremost the Bookmakers established that Joe Public will see that Japanese import Yu Darvish is on the mound against Max "who?" Fried, and with this, twice as many public tickets issued on Darvish opposed to little known Fried. All things being equal Fried and the Braves are at minimum, in a baseball vacuum, -130, at most -150 in this getaway game at hitter friendly SunTrust Park.
With complete transparency let it be known that I firmly believe that Darvish will eventually find his way this 2019 season. He has plus-stuff and his baseball IQ is well above the average big leaguer. Due to a injury plagued 2018 season where he made just eight starts in combination with a spring that saw him working on his release point more than fine tuning his grip enabling him to command that plus-stuff.

I am stating as modestly as words will enable in relation to what Darvish is capable of. The truth be that he has better than plus-stuff.. he has plus-plus-plus stuff.. Hence, the reason for this "play against" on Thursday night in Atlanta.

Note: If you, all of you who have access to my releases and the analysis, whom have the wherewithal to watch this game -- do it. You will see in short order the crazy movement that Yu has on nearly every piece of his arsenal. There are a hundred different adjectives I could use in front of nouns that paint a picture of the Darvish arsenal. I won't go there for the sake of turning this short write-up into a short story.

In short, the amount of movement Yu gets on all of his pitches, is crazy electric. Darvish is a right-hander that has the movement of a hard throwing lefty... which by itself is a difficult puzzle for hitters to comprehend -- sick-good late jump on his four-seamer.

1. Fastball that when healthy can touch 95 mph with the movement of a 88 mph slider

2. Splitter that clocks in between 82-85 mph and has been his outpitch since he made the move from Japan to the U.S. -- when healthy with mid-season form his splitter falls off the table at a 45 degree angle.

3. Slider that was his secondary out-pitch when he arrived in the states when the count was full -- and note that it wasn't just an out-pitch when he was facing savvy hitters -- it is the quintessential wipeout -- hard lateral movement head shaking piece -- that made him the most desired pitcher in Asia in the early part of this decade.

Darvish also throws a Curve (and can throw it for a strike at as little as 68 mph) and a changeup for a strike with a 8-10 mph differential form his average fastball.

The current issue with Darvish considering my complementary outline of what he is capable of?

Form- a combination of repetition that is absolutely a must to command this many pitches with his animated movement.

His first start this season, in Texas, against his former team in the Rangers, his movement was outrageously head shaking.

His command of said arsenal?

Pathetic

He needs, at minimum, 6-8 more starts and serious side (between start) sessions before he is trustworthy. At this point, because of the reasoning I just outlined, he is a serious-serious-serious "play against"

For those that just glance at boxscores without reading between the numbers will find that the Cubs righty allowed 3 runs on 2 hits ---- Those that actually take a second to read the complete surface stats would also find that he did so in just 2.2 innings of work. Darvish was facing a Rangers batting order that is anything but patient... uber-aggressive and undisciplined is the best way to describe this Texas batting order that will be a big part of why the Rangers lose 100 games this season. Darvish walked 7 batters in that 2.2 innings of work. He allowed a home run and threw 75 pitches in those 2.2 innings of work.
'
In his eight starts a season ago he offered the necessary evidence that will have you shaking your head up and down in agreement. Darvish's surface numbers in his eight starts last season -- 4.73 BB/9 - 11.03 K/9 -- after one start this season his 4.73 BB/9 with eight starts a year ago is 23.63 BB/9 after a single start.

The best the Braves have every five days, among their pitching staff, is Mike Foltynewicz -- followed by Kevin Gausman -- and both are currently injured. And while Thursday's starter, Max Fried, at this point in his career is best utilized in long relieve or for a two inning stint due to his aggressive style and capable velocity, he is a talent worth backing and more so watching as he progresses into a solid No. 2 or 3 pitcher in the years to come.

For those not familiar with Fried -- note he is bottom line over-the-top value packed -- as a touted and respected prospect in an organization that knows baseball.

Fried was the team's best arm in camp across March. He is armed and ready form wise. He threw the most innings during camp among the Braves starters and struck out a batter per inning pitched and allowed less hits than innings pitched. He is one of just a handful of young lefties at Major League level without a full season in the bigs that is not just respected, but asked about when GM speaks to GM talking trade (availability).

The Cubs batting order ranked in the Top-10 last year in OPS, runs scored, batting average and on-base percentage, overall.

The Cubs were not that offense when facing left-handed pitching slashing a below average .260/.333/.398/.730 with just 31 total home runs versus southpaws. And this is, all things equal, the same lineup this season, as last.

The Cubs bullpen is a mess. They have already been overused --- abused -- and because of such Coach M and his staff will be looking to get five innings, minimum from Darvish on Thursday night -- which I fully expect to result in five-plus runs and possible 10 walks... either the aforementioned or Darvish throws 90 mph batting practice with aimed fastballs giving Madden what he asked for... innings.

ATLANTA BRAVES -115
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Dave Essler

1*
Atlanta / Chicago over 8.5

1*
Atlanta -115

3*
Cleveland / Sacramento under 229.5
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Fezzik

2*
LOS ANGELES ANGELS -142
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Stephen Oh

UNDER 227 GOLDEN ST. @ L.A. LAKERS | 4/04 | 10:30 PM EDT

YESTERDAY 10:40 PM
My data sees the Lakers and Warriors putting up a maximum of 220 points Thursday, providing value on the Under against the posted total. The Lakers have gone Under in four straight against winning teams, while the Warriors are 7-1 to the Under when playing on just one day's rest.

86-68 IN LAST 154 NBA PICKS | +1174
6-4 IN LAST 10 GS O/U PICKS | +169

OVER 228.5 CLEVELAND @ SACRAMENTO | 4/04 | 10:00 PM EDT

YESTERDAY 10:37 PM
My numbers see the Kings and Cavaliers totaling at least 238 points in their Thursday meeting, which would send this one soaring Over the total with room to spare. The Cavs have played Over in five straight and are 7-0 to the Over following a loss. The Over is on a 5-2 spurt in this series as well. .

86-68 IN LAST 154 NBA PICKS | +1174
4-0 IN LAST 4 SAC O/U PICKS | +400
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Ben Burns

3*
Milwaukee/Philadelphia UNDER 230.5
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Greg shaker

3*
Atlanta / Chicago over 8.5

1*
LA ANGELS / Texas over 8.5
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King creole

2*
Golden State Warriors / Los Angeles Lakers under 227
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WORLDS WORST PICKER

MLB

Both Regular Plays

Oakland Athletics Atlanta Braves

Play ON the OPPOSITES
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Rockdeman Sports

MLB
Pirates
Over 8.5 Braves/Cubs
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WORLDS WORST PICKER

NCAA BB

Both Regular Plays

Texas Wisc Green Bay

Play ON the OPPOSITES
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Seabass first report : 200 orioles , 200 orioles game over , 300 nationals , 300 royals , 400 Red Sox game under
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Billy Coleman

NCAA BK
3* #728 Texas -1

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