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TONY FINN
Event: (461) Jacksonville Jaguars at (462) New York Giants
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: September 9, 2018 1PM EDT
Play: Total Under 44.0 (-108)
Jacksonville visits the Big Apple in their season opener of the 2018 National Football League regular season versus the New York Giants. It will be the first meeting between the two franchises since November of 2014 when the Jaguars defeated the Giants 25-24 at Everbank Field. Jaguars vs Giants: Week 1 NFL Prediction and Spread.
The lifetime series between these two Week #1 NFL opponents is tied 3-3. There are a handful of intriguing subplots in the event. One of those is the return of Tom Coughlin to MetLife Stadium. In addition the matchup between Jags cornerback Jalen Ramsey and the G-men’s wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr is must watch television. Leonard Fournette will receive most of the pregame running back attention . But rookie Saquon Barkley’s first regular season NFL game will be hyped, as well.
Game Vitals
Matchup: (461) Jacksonville Jaguars @ (462) New York Giants
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
When: Sunday, September 9 at 1:00 pm ET
TV: FOX
Spread: Jacksonville Jaguars -4 / 44 (As of Monday, June 25, per CG Technology of Las Vegas)
Jacksonville Overview
The Jaguars are "Old School" on both sides of the ball. The offense will continue to be run oriented with running back Leonard Fournette and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett's playbook. The defense is physical and fast under the guidance of defensive coordinator Todd Wash.
The 2018 offseason saw several key signings that enforces the plan to feature Fournette on the offensive side of the ball. The addition of offensive lineman Andrew Norwell is evidence that Fournette and the running game will be the staple for the second straight season.
Quarterback Black Bortles has new weapons in the passing game however - as the offensive line and Fournette go - so go the Jaguars. At the close of June's organized team activities Bortles was quoted by the Orlando Sentinel that he now "owns the offense". Bortles also told the local media he was working at more of an 'elementary level' at the start of last season.
Head coach Doug Marrone and his coaches spoke tirelessly about specific players that stood out in the recent minicamp and OTA's. One of those player personnel was Donte Moncrief. The wide out will more than fill the role of the departed Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns, who are now with the Chicago Bears and Dallas Cowboys, respectively. Bortles in combination with Moncrief and Marqise Lee will keep opposing defenses honest. Moncrief’s size (6-foot-2) and his speed off the line of scrimmage along with the dual threat of Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Marcedes Lewis
New York Giants Overview
The Giants posted a franchise-worst 13 losses in 2017. The franchise did a solid job in the April amateur draft. And there is promise that the squad can return to their 2016 defensive form with the team's new additions this offseason.
Veteran quarterback Eli Manning won't be pressed by either Davis Webb or rookie Kyle Lauletta. Veteran tailback Jonathon Stewart will tutor projected rookie starter Saquon Barkley. The 2018 Giants will be much more balanced, and better, offensively with the additions of left tackle Nate Solder and rookie Will Hernandez. And it is safe to expect the 2018 offensive scheme to be different under new head coach Pat Shurmur. If there is any question that Shurmur wants to run the football look no further than his time as the OC in Minnesota. The Vikings ran it more than every other team in the league in 2017, outside of Jacksonville, the Giants Week #1 foe.
Shurmur and GM Dave Gettleman drafted a franchise rusher and focused on an offensive line rebuild. The Giants new leadership did so with the sole purpose of being competitive and especially more capable of running the football than they were a season ago.
The Giants finished 31st out of 32 NFL defenses in yards allowed (373.2 per game). In addition New York finished 27th in points allowed (24.2) in 2017. Bettcher's defense helped Arizona shut out Big Blue, 23-0, this past Christmas. The Big Blue defense was a mess as season ago. The team defensive drama included suspensions and more. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie storming out of the building on Ben McAdoo. In addition Janoris Jenkins no-showing for the Giants' first practice out of the bye week. Also the Eli Apple season-long felonious attitude.
Out of New York is defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo and in is former Arizona Cardinals DC James Bettcher. Expect the Giants defense to be considerably better, both in reality and statistically. Bettcher is young and aggressive. The former Cardinals defensive boss hasn't yet defined the scheme he will orchestrate in New York but Arizona operated under a 3-4 defense and did so with great success under Bettcher.
The Giants will be a run-first offense this season and the defensive will be better because of the new scheme. In addition the defensive line will be deeper and do a better job containing the oppositions running game.
Despite being a pass-happy team last year and ranking at the bottom of the league in most important defensive categories the Giants cashed the UNDER five of their eight home games. The Jaguars came in UNDER the oddsmakers total as a visitor at a 4-6 clip last season including their postseason events.
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CARMINE BIANCO
Event: (467) Tennessee Titans at (468) Miami Dolphins
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: September 9, 2018 1PM EDT
Play: Total Under 46.0 (-110)
NFL - Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins
Opening weekend of the NFL season and a play on the Under 46. Neither team had a great preseason but you can't put much stock/relevance as both head into week 1 relatively healthy and although the Titans have a healthy Mariota back at the helm they'll look to establish the run on Sunday behind Henry and Lewis. Dolphins are revamped on offense with a healthy Tannehill back and the rushing attack will be led by Kenyan Drake with FA pick up Gore. 6 of the last 8 in Miami between these two have gone under the total and in a game where we expect both teams to try and establish the run we'll side with the under here.
The Free Play is Under 46 -110
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MARCO D'ANGELO
Event: (453) Pittsburgh Steelers at (454) Cleveland Browns
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: September 9, 2018 1PM EDT
Play: Total Under 44.5 (-110)
Cleveland has gone Under in 11 of it's last 12 Home Games and 8 of the last 11 Pittsburgh/Cleveland match ups have gone Under the Total. Add that to the fact that Bell isn't playing and Todd Haley the new OC at Cleveland (former OC at Pittsburgh L6 years) surely shared the Steelers offensive playbook with DC Gregg Williams makes the Under the only way to go.
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TEDDY COVERS
Event: (459) Buffalo Bills at (460) Baltimore Ravens
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: September 9, 2018 1PM EDT
Play: Baltimore Ravens -7.0 (-110)
3% Take Baltimore (#460)
Sharp money has been pouring in on the Baltimore Ravens over the past few weeks, driving this line above a TD at many locations. And while bettors won’t be getting the best of the number to back Baltimore at the current price, this game has ‘ugly blowout for the Bills’ written all over it!
The Bills won nine games last year, despite a Pythagorean expectation (based on points scored and allowed) that showed Buffalo as a 6.5 win team. Those nine wins were every bit as ‘lucky’ as any other factor, without a single victory by more than ten points. Seven of the wins came against sub .500 foes; legit bottom feeders: the Jets, Broncos, Dolphins (twice), Bucs, Raiders and Colts.
Obviously, no position is as important as the quarterback. Coming into 2018, the Bills arguably have the worst QB situation in the league. Nathan Peterman played the single worst half of football I’ve ever seen an NFL QB play (against the Chargers) before getting benched in his lone start as a rookie last year. His preseason didn’t inspire much confidence either, and the Ravens aggressive defense is primed to give Peterman fits.
Buffalo has a whopping $46 million in dead cap space this year. To put that number in perspective, the #31 team in the NFL in dead money this year – Dallas – has $25 million in dead cap space. The Bills spent the offseason jettisoning veterans, dumping salary and rebuilding for the future. Their offensive line has replaced three starters; the back seven on defense is loaded with question marks and the Bills look very much like the single worst team in the NFL coming out of camp.
The Ravens, on the other hand, have something to prove in Week 1 after missing the playoffs in each of the last three seasons. They came out of the gate last year with back-2-back double digit wins, and I expect Coach Harbaugh to have them ready right from the get-go again this year. Chalk worth laying! Take the Ravens.
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BUSTER SPORTS
Event: (469) Kansas City Chiefs at (470) Los Angeles Chargers
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: September 9, 2018 4PM EDT
Play: Los Angeles Chargers -3.0 (-110)
The Los Angeles Chargers open up their season at their temporary home in Carson California and they are hoping it will be a better place for the home team especially after coming off a 9-7 season and just missing the playoffs. Everyone is aware of the not so much home field advantage for the Chargers last year however, it is a new season and it looks like the Chargers are going to be very good this year. The problem for Los Angeles is that it has to take care of the worst run defense in the NFL in 2017. Their first three draft picks were on the defense and it will be interesting to see if DC Gus Bradley can get the most out of his new acquisitions. One thing is for sure, the Chargers will be just as good on defense as they were last year giving up only17 points per game that ranked them third best in the league.
On offense, QB Philip Rivers and RB Melvin Gordon will be back at it again with OC Ken Whisenhunt running the show. Gordon finished 7th in the league with 1,105 rushing yards while Rivers led the NFL in passing (277 yds per game). We believe you will see more of the same this year with the Chargers. If they are able to play better run D they will be a very dangerous club. Last year the Chargers started 0-4 and to a man, they will go all out to win this game, against a Kansas City club who has owned them for years now.
Kansas City starts the new season with new QB Patrick Mahomes. This will be Mahomes only second start in the NFL. We know he will get a lot more work in the preseason but as we all know game time on Sunday is what counts. There are high expectations for Mahomes but we believe it will take some time for the new QB to be able to manage games the way HC Reid would like. We also believe that this is going to be a very stiff test for the young QB to handle on the NFL road.
The Kansas City defense we believe took a big hit this year when they basically gave away CB Marcus Peters to the Rams, and no one could be happier than QB Rivers. Rivers threw 6 interceptions against the KC secondary last year (he only threw 10 all year) and we believe even if it is just mentally, he will feel more confident against a Kansas City defense without Peters. The oddsmakers have made the Chargers the token three point home favorite and that tells you something right away especially when all the trends favor the Chiefs and Kansas City were a 3 point favorite in this spot last year. Obviously, things have changed for both clubs but we believe with those changes the Chargers are much better and will be able to break that eight game losing streak against their nemesis.
Lay the FG with the Chargers. So let’s get the job done with the Los Angeles Chargers as your free play for Week One of the NFL season.
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SPORTS DATA QUERY GROUP
Event: (469) Kansas City Chiefs at (470) Los Angeles Chargers
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: September 9, 2018 4PM EDT
Play: Los Angeles Chargers -3.5 (-108)
We have a nice league-wide, week-one only system going here. In the opening weekend, teams that made the playoffs last season are 10-32 ATS in the history of the database when facing a divisional opponent that did not make the playoffs. The Chiefs made the playoffs last season and the Chargers did not, making the Chiefs the play-against team. The SDQL text is:
S(playoffs@o:team, N=1)=0 and S(playoffs@team, N=1)=1 and week=1 and DIV
Teams that were an underdog by more than a field goal are 0-5 ATS in the history of the database.
The Chargers were swept by the Chiefs in 2014. The Chargers were swept by the Chiefs in 2015. The Chargers were swept by the Chiefs in 2016. The Chargers were swept by the Chiefs in 2017. This season, for the first time in a long time, the Chargers are the favorite to with their division, they have an improved defense (even with Joey Bosa out) and the Chiefs have an inexperienced QB under center. Kansas City traded Pro Bowl Safety Marcus Peters to the Rams and Andy Reid just announced that Pro Bowl safety Eric Berry will be out as well. With fierce, veteran QB Glenn Rivers under center a pair of excellent receivers and Melvin Gordon in the backfield, this is a great opportunity for the Chargers to take out some frustration on a divisional opponent that has been dominating them.
In favor of the Chargers, we have the fact that week one favorites by more than a field goal are 8-0 ATS when they had more than three wins last season and are facing a team that had more regular season wins the previous season. The SDQL text is:
PRSW < o:PRSW and week=1 and line = 3 and season >= 2011
These teams won by an average of 16.25 ppg and last season’s lone active date was the Rams 46-9 demolition of the Colts as a 4-point favorite. Clearly, there is a good reason for these teams to be a significant favorite over a team that had more wins the previous season.
The Chargers have won five straight home games and we don’t see that changing here.
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BOBBY LIGS
Event: (477) Chicago Bears at (478) Green Bay Packers
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: September 9, 2018 8PM EDT
Play: Chicago Bears 7.0 (-103)
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Top Shelf Sports Pick
NFL LOS ANGELES CHARGERS ‑190
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Vegas Consultants
NFL WASHINGTON REDSKINS +2 +100
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Mikey Money
NFL CLEVELAND BROWNS +4
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CHRIS JORDAN
The Jacksonville Jaguars have the best defense in the NFL. There, I said it. And I believe you will all see this in the coming weeks. Today, they're going to shut down the hapless New York Giants, who have seemingly made it tradition to stink it up early in the season, and then make a late charge in the second half of the campaign.
Jaguars cornerback Jalen Ramsey practiced without any limitation Friday, and has been cleared to play against New York receiver Odell Beckham Jr.
I can't wait to see him knock the blonde out of OBJ's hair. Wait, does he still have to do?
This stop unit is loaded with six returning all pro players: cornerbacks A.J. Bouye and Ramsey, linemen Calais Campbell, Malik Jackson and Yannick Ngakoue, and linebacker Telvin Smith Sr. The Jaguars were ranked No. 2 in the league last season, with Ramsey and Campbell making the all-Pro Team.
The Giants - who were 3-13 last season - will have their hands full, as it will be Pat Shurmur's first regular-season NFL game as coach of the Giants, a team that has made the playoffs once (2016) since winning the Super Bowl in February 2012.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars undoubtedly have been waiting for today since they blew a 10-point fourth-quarter lead against the New England Patriots in the AFC title game in January. Come that close to the big game, and come away empty-handed? The Jags will avenge that loss today, by taking all frustration out on the Giants.
5* JAGUARS
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ERIC SCHROEDER
For years I've tried to like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I've felt they could do something special in the NFC South, and be a challenge to the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints.
This year I'm not sold whatsoever.
Today, the Saints - who haven't won a season opener since 2013 - will march all over the Buccaneers, and roll to a two-TD win.
New Orleans brings back most of the key components from a squad that is likely still stinging from the "Minnesota Miracle." The 61-yard Vikings touchdown on the last play of New Orleans' season kept it from the NFC title game. And now the Saints are hungry.
Leading the charge, of course, is Saints quarterback Drew Brees, who had a 121.1 passer rating against the Bucs last season - his best rating against any team in 2017. Brees will take full advantage of Tampa Bay's new-look defense, which will take some time to build chemistry.
Meanwhile, the Bucs are coming off a five-win campaign that kept their decade-long playoff drought intact, and today will open the season without starting quarterback Jameis Winston, who is serving a three-game suspension.
Lay the chalk in this one, as the Saints roll.
3* SAINTS
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JACK BRAYMAN
Tonight we're taking the Seattle Seahawks over the Denver Broncos.
Call me crazy, but I think the AFC West will be the worst division in football. And unfortunately, because I'm a bonafide hater of all things San Diego, the Chargers likely have the best chance to win.
That said, I still think the Seahawks will be formidable at times, despite losing Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor. And tonight, they'll get the best of Denver, which lost Aqib Talib and T.J. Ward.
So the secondaries won't be the same - big deal. The absences cancel one another out, and you handicap what's left and which is the better team. I have to side with Pete Carroll and company.
I am a big believer in rookie linebacker Shaquem Griffin, who is expected to start against the Broncos with K.J. Wright out following minor knee surgery. Griffin, who had his left hand amputated as a child, is an undersized but talented athlete who will be looking to prove himself. His inspiration alone helps this team.
Inspiration doesn't put the ball in the end zone, though, and that's the biggest difference, since I think Russell Wilson is a much better quarterback than Case Keenum. Wilson is probably the most elusive signal caller in the gamme today, and that will make things hard on the sack-happy Broncos.
Take the Seahawks in this one, as they steal one in Denver.
3* SEAHAWKS
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Free Silver Key Pick for Sunday NFL Football
Under 42.5 Total Points, Dallas at CAROLINA (4:25 et)
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RICH GREEN
Free Top Consensus Pick For Sunday NFL Football
Under 40.5 Total Points, Buffalo at BALTIMORE (1 et)
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Jim Feist
Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Sunday, September 9, 2018
NFL (471) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS VS (472) DENVER BRONCOS
Take: (472) DENVER BRONCOS
Reason: Your free play for Sunday, September 9, 2018 is in the NFL scheduled contest between the Seattle Seahawks and the Denver Broncos. Your free play is on the BRONCOS.
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Sharp Bettor
SharpBettor FREE Play for Sunday, September 9, 2018
(455) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS VS (456) MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Take : Vikings
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1. NSA(The Legend) NFL - Bengals under 47.5
2. Vegas Line Crushers NFL - Redskins +1.5
3. VegasSI.com NFL - Chargers under 48.5
4. SportsAction365.com NFL - Giants +3
5. Gameday Network NFL - Steelers -3.5
6. PointSpreadReport.com NFL - Seahawks +3
7. InsiderSportsAction.com NFL - Packers -7
8. Lou Panelli NFL - Buccaneers over 49.5
9. Gerry "Big Cat" Andino NFL - Ravens over 40
10. VegasSI.com Platinum Info Club NFL - Dolphins under 45
11. William E. Stockton NFL - Buccaneers +10
12. Vincent Pioli NFL - Patriots -6
13. Steve "Scoop" Kendall NFL - Steelers -3.5
14. SCORE NFL - Packers -7
15. East Coast Line Movers NFL - Cowboys +3
16. Tony Campone NFL - Patriots -6
17. Chicago Sports Group NFL - Dolphins +1
18. Hollywood Sportsline NFL - Patriots -6
19. VIP Action NFL - Ravens -7.5
20. South Beach Sports NFL - Patriots -6
21. Las Vegas Sports Commission NFL - Panthers -3
22. NY Players Club NFL - Vikings -6.5
23. Fred Callahan NFL - Vikings -6.5
24. Las Vegas Private CEO Club NFL - Dolphins +1
25. Michigan Sports NFL - Giants +3
26. National Consensus Report NFL - Ravens -7.5
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