Thursday 10/25/18 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NCAAFB, NFL & MLB games.
Kenny Walker
Oct 25 '18, 7:00 PM in 7h
NCAA-F | Ball State vs Ohio
Play on: Ball State +12 -110
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Hunter Price
Oct 25 '18, 7:00 PM in 7h
NCAA-F | Toledo vs Western Michigan
Play on: Toledo +6½ +100
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Bryan Leonard
Oct 25 '18, 7:00 PM in 7h
NCAA-F | Baylor vs West Virginia
Play on: Baylor +14 -109 at GTBets
113 Baylor at West Virginia
The Bears are a team that's been an afterthought in the betting markets. Off a 1-11 season a year ago, many have written off this program. But we've paid special notice to the improvements under second year coach Matt Rhule, and we think the future is bright in Waco. This is a team that has recently played at Oklahoma and Texas, the two best teams in the conference. So it won't be intimidated by this venue. Over the last three years Baylor has outscored the Mountaineers 119-100, with West Virginia being ranked in two of those seasons.
West Virginia has a very tough schedule after this contest. Games against Texas, TCU, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma to end the season. Dana Holgorsen is just 13-19 ATS off a straight up loss, so don't expect a rebound off that defeat last time out at Iowa State. We take the generous points here with the Bears.
PLAY BAYLOR
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Doug Upstone
Oct 25 '18, 7:00 PM in 7h
NCAA-F | Ball State vs Ohio
Play on: OVER 64 -110
On Thursday night in the MAC, Play Over on teams when the total is between 63.5 and 70 like OHIO U. and BALL ST. in a game involving two average teams, who are +/- 0.6 yards per play. This situation is 38-12 OVER the last five years.
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John Martin
Oct 25 '18, 7:00 PM in 7h
NCAA-F | Toledo vs Western Michigan
Play on: Toledo +6½ -105 at 5Dimes
1 Unit FREE PLAY on Toledo +6.5
Toledo is still one of the better teams in the MAC. And the Rockets need a win right now as they sit at 3-4 if they are going to make a bowl game. I think this line has gotten a little out of hand with all the bets and money on Western Michigan tonight. It’s telling that the books aren’t going to -7. Toledo actually opened the favorite at one place. And I think the value is with the Rockets. Western Michigan is getting a lot of love from six straight victories, but three of those were one-score games that could have gone either way. The other three blowouts came against poor teams in Delaware State, Georgia State and Central Michigan. This is a big step up in class for the Broncos tonight against Toledo. The Rockets have won six of their last eight meetings with the Broncos, including a 37-10 drubbing at home last year. The Rockets are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 road games. The underdog is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Give me Toledo.
Mark Wilson
Oct 25 '18, 7:00 PM in 7h
NCAA-F | Baylor vs West Virginia
Play on: UNDER 68½ -110
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Dustin Hawkins
Oct 25 '18, 7:00 PM in 7h
NCAA-F | Toledo vs Western Michigan
Play on: Western Michigan -6 -110
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Brad Diamond
Oct 25 '18, 7:00 PM in 7h
NCAA-F | Baylor vs West Virginia
Play on: West Virginia -13½ -109
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Brandon Lee
Oct 25 '18, 7:00 PM in 7h
NCAA-F | Toledo vs Western Michigan
Play on: Western Michigan -6½ -104 at pinnacle
10* FREE NCAAF PICK (W Michigan -6.5)
I'll take my chances with Western Michigan winning by at least a touchdown at home. Not only do I think Western Michigan is the better team, but I also think they have a huge advantage here playing at home with both teams on short rest, as each were in action this past Saturday.
I know both teams have struggled against the spread up to this point, but I just feel there’s some hidden value with Western Michigan right now, especially as a small home favorite. The Broncos were dealt a tough hand, having to play 5 of their first 8 games on the road and one of their home games was against a Power 5 opponent.
It’s also worth noting that despite managing just 3-points and 208 total yards in a loss at Michigan, Western Michigan comes into this game ranked 25th in the country in scoring (36.4 ppg) and are 24th in total offense (467.1 ypg). I look for that Broncos offense to have a field day here against a struggling Rockets defense, that comes in ranked 101st in the country against the run (195.1 ypg) and 111th agains the pass (268.6 ypg).
As for the Toledo offense, it’s got some fire-power, but when they have stepped up competition, it’s not been nearly as potent. The best example of that was last week’s home loss to Buffalo, where they managed just 295 total yards and 8 first downs. Note that basically all of their offense came on two plays, as they had a 70 yard TD run and 80-yard TD pass. Not to mention, 8 first downs is atrocious in today’s game, especially at home.
Some might think that Toledo’s ground game, which ranks 42nd at 195.3 ypg will be a factor against a Western Michigan defense that ranks 79th agains the run (168.8 ypg). However, I don’t think that will be the case. Western Michigan allowed 334 rushing yards to Syracuse in their opener and 308 rushing yards to Michigan the very next week. Since those two games, they have allowed just 114.2 ypg on the ground in their last 6.
Something else to note is that while Toledo is getting outgained by 71 ypg in conference play, the Broncos are outgaining opponents by 90 ypg in conference play. I just don’t think it’s asking a lot here for Western Michigan to win by a touchdown on their home field. Not to mention the Rockets are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Give me the Broncos -6.5!
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Steve Janus
Oct 25 '18, 7:00 PM in 7h
NCAA-F | Baylor vs West Virginia
Play on: Baylor +14 -109
Mike Williams
Oct 25 '18, 7:05 PM in 7h
NBA | Blazers vs Magic
Play on: Blazers -3 -102
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Jack Jones
Oct 25 '18, 7:05 PM in 7h
NBA | Blazers vs Magic
Play on: Blazers -3 -102 at 5Dimes
Jack’s Free Pick Thursday: Portland Trail Blazers -3
We’re getting the Portland Trail Blazers pretty cheap tonight against the Orlando Magic. I’ll gladly back the Blazers here who are off to a 2-1 start and motivated for a victory following a tough one-point overtime loss to the Wizards last time out. They’ve had two days off to get ready for Orlando and should be primed for a big effort.
I think the Magic are now getting respect from oddsmakers after their 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS start to the season. That’s especially the case off a shocking win at Boston as 11-point underdogs last time out. But if anything, that sets them up for a letdown spot here, and they simply aren’t that good. One of their losses was an 88-120 home loss to the Hornets. That effort is more indicative of their talent level.
The Blazers have owned the Magic, going 4-1 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Their four wins have all come by 5 points or more and by an average of 14.5 points per game. Again, asking them to lay only 3 points here isn’t asking too much.
The Blazers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight Thursday games. The Magic are 18-40 ATS int heir last 58 games following a win. Orlando is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games when playing on two days’ rest. Portland is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on two days’ rest. The road team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings. Bet the Blazers Thursday.
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Sal Michaels
Oct 25 '18, 7:30 PM in 7h
NCAA-F | Georgia Tech vs Virginia Tech
Play on: Georgia Tech +3 -110
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Cole Faxon
Oct 25 '18, 7:30 PM in 7h
NCAA-F | Georgia Tech vs Virginia Tech
Play on: Georgia Tech +3 -110
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Bobby Conn
Oct 25 '18, 7:30 PM in 7h
NCAA-F | Appalachian State vs Georgia Southern
Play on: Appalachian State -9 -105
Totals Guru
Oct 25 '18, 7:30 PM in 7h
NCAA-F | Georgia Tech vs Virginia Tech
Play on: OVER 58½ -105
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Info Plays
Oct 25 '18, 7:30 PM in 7h
NCAA-F | Georgia Tech vs Virginia Tech
Play on: Virginia Tech -3 -115
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Marc Lawrence
Oct 25 '18, 7:30 PM in 7h
NCAA-F | Georgia Tech vs Virginia Tech
Play on: Virginia Tech -2½ -115 at BMaker
Play - Virginia Tech (Game 112).
Edges - Hokies: 5-1 ATS weekdays; and 4-1 ATS with rest … Yellow Jackets: 0-5-1 ATS in first of consecutive away games … and head coach Paul Johnson 3-9 ATS away when coming off a SU favorite loss … With that we recommend a 1* play on Virginia Tech. Thank you and good luck as always.
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Jimmy Boyd
Oct 25 '18, 8:05 PM in 8h
NBA | Celtics vs Thunder
Play on: Thunder +102 at 5Dimes
Free Pick on Oklahoma City Thunder +102
I'm taking the Thunder at home on the money line in Thursday's big showdown with the Celtics. Oklahoma City has gotten off to an 0-3 start, including a 11-point home loss to the Kings last time out, which was also the first game for star point guard Russell Westbrook.
This is too good a team to be sitting without a win and I look for the effort here to be at a max and it should help that OKC has had 3 days off leading up to this game. Boston is a lot of people's pick to win the east with LeBron James now in the west, but the Celtics are sitting at just 2-2 and just lost at home to the Magic as a 11-point favorite.
Thunder are 13-2 against the money line in their last 15 off an upset loss as a favorite of 10 or more and we also find a strong system in play that backs this up even more. Home teams are 21-5 against the money line over the last 5 seasons when off an upset loss as a favorite and facing a team that just lost at home by 3-points or less. Take Oklahoma City!
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Sean Murphy
Oct 25 '18, 8:20 PM in 8h
NFL | Dolphins vs Texans
Play on: Texans -7 -115 at BMaker
Thursday NFL Free play. My selection is on Houston minus the points over Miami at 8:20 pm et on Thursday.
This is not a favorable spot for the Dolphins as they travel on a short week to face a red hot Texans squad that is quietly gaining confidence and a serious contender for the AFC South crown. If there's one thing Houston does well it's take away opposing running games, which should put this game squarely in the hands of Dolphins QB Brock Osweiler. He has played better than expected since taking over for Ryan Tannehill but will face an uphill climb here with WRs Albert Wilson and Kenny Stills sidelined. Look for the Texans to make enough plays down the stretch to secure a win and cover. Take Houston (8*).
Cappers Club
Oct 25 '18, 8:20 PM in 8h
NFL | Dolphins vs Texans
Play on: Texans -7½ -103
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Jack Brayman
I did everything I could to give Georgia Southern the benefit of the doubt in this game, but with my free pick for Thursday in College Football, I'm siding with No. 25 Appalachian State.
The Mountaineers are ranked in the AP poll for the first time in school history, and have not lost since opening the season with an overtime defeat at Penn State.
Since transitioning to the FBS in 2014, this team has achieved many things: bowl eligibility, winning a bowl, winning the Sun Belt and now being ranked. The Mountaineers aren't about to throw that away.
Appalachian State, 46-23 under coach Scott Satterfield, has won two Sun Belt titles and is on pace for a third, even after replacing four-year starting quarterback Taylor Lamb, two four-year starting offensive linemen, four defensive players that were four-year starters and veteran defensive coordinator Nate Woody, who bolted for Georgia Tech.
Newsflash: the Mountaineers are good.
It is probably the fastest team under Satterfield and arguably the best defensive team he's coached. Since losing to Penn State, the Mountaineers have outscored their opponents 231-49 thanks to the eighth-best defense in the nation.
App State allows just 294.8 yards per game, as it's just one of 10 teams to allow less than 300 yards per game. It has the 11th-best scoring defense, too, and getting deeper it has the third-best first-down stop unit. The red zone defense ranks 16th in the country, so Georgia Southern will have stiff competition inside the 20.
And I bring those last two stats up because the Eagles rely on their running game - the fifth-best in the nation. But if App State shuts that down, the Eagles have to rely on the 129th-ranked passing offense, out of 130 teams.
I like App State here, as it will roll to a two-touchdown, road win.
5* APPALACHIAN STATE
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Tommy Brunson
Over the past pair of years, the Yellow Jackets triple-option offense has been able to generate 570 yards of total offense the past 2 seasons in this series, so you can be sure that defensive coordinator Bud Foster has been burning the midnight oil in an effort to scheme his defense to slowing down the Jackets offense.
Georgia Tech saw their streak of 3 in a row well Over the total come to a halt in their 28-14 loss to Duke their last time out, meanwhile Virginia Tech comes in off an Under in their last game against North Carolina, as 2 of the Hokies last 3 games have held Under the total.
Yes, last year the teams combined for 50 points, but that was good enough to take it Over for the first time in the past 6 meetings. Each of the last 5 showdowns between the teams at Lane Stadium have all held Under, and the Hokies have been a most definite Under team under the Thursday night lights with a 21-6 Under mark!
Yellow Jackets and Hokies to land Under on a Fall Thursday in Blacksburg.
4* GEORGIA TECH-VIRGINIA TECH UNDER
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Ray Chadwick
This one shapes up to be an Under...back up quarterback Brock Osweiler going against his former team. Injured starting QB, Deshaun Watson who is battling both injured ribs and lungs, and a stingy defense in Houston that has not allowed more than 16 points in any of their last 3 games. Them's the facts!
Miami has played 3 road games this year, and all 3 have landed Under the total.
Houston has played Unders in each of their last 3, and 5 of their 7 games overall this year. The Texans allowing only 36 total points over their last 3. If you don't think this defense is salivating over facing Osweiler who was with the Texans last year, and they know like a book, then you better think again.
With Watson compromised throwing the football, I would tend to believe this game will be all about battling for field position, protecting the rock when the Texans have it, and allowing the Texans "D" to deliver the KO-blow to Osweiler and the 'Fins.
Miami-Houston Under the total.
5* MIAMI-HOUSTON UNDER
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Jim Feist
Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Thursday, October 25, 2018
10/25 05:05 PM PT / 8:05 PM ET
NBA (705) BOSTON CELTICS VS (706) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
Take: OVER
Mike Wynn
Free Play: Free Denver -3½ Over The LA Lakers
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Razor Sharp
YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR THURSDAY: OKLAHOMA CITY -1½ over Boston
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Totals4U
Thursday's Free Selection: Portland/Orlando under 218
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Jeff Allen Sports
Thursday's Free Selection is on the Pittsburgh Penguins
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Atlantic Sports
Thursday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Detroit Pistons - 8
#1 Sports
Thursday's Free Selection: Portland Trail Blazers - 3
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Platinum Plays
Free Pick the Orlando Magic +3 over Portland
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Easy Money Sports
Lee's Thursday Free Selection Is
Appalachian State -10
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Golden Dragon Sports
FREE WINNER for Thursday
Georgia Tech +3
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Huddle Up Sports
Free Play: W. Michigan -6'
Hawkeye Sports
Thursday's Free Pick: Nashville Predators - 130
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Arthur Ralph Sports
FREE play THURS Houston -7 NFL
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The Vegas Steam Line
Your free winner for Thursday: Take APPALACHIAN ST/GEORGIA SOUTHERN OVER 47 1/2
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High Stakes Syndicate
Free Selection for Thursday: St Louis Blues - 130
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John Anthony Sports
Thursday's Free Selection: Denver Nuggets - 4
Nevada Sharpshooter
Your free winner for Thursday: Take CLEVELAND +7 over Detroit