Sunday 11/4/18 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NCAAFB, NFL & NBA games.
Steve Oh (NFL)
Kansas City -8
New England -6.5
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Micah Roberts (NFL)
Pittsburgh +3
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Fezzik
Steelers +3
Cheifs/ browns under 51.5
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Sleepyj
3*GOY
New Orleans saints
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Mike Barner (NFL 6-2 Last 8)
Denver -8
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Mike Tierney (NFL)
Miami -3
Chargers +2
Washington -1.5
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Tom Fornelli (NFL)
Buffalo +10
Kansas City -8.5
NY Jets +3
New England -5.5
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Micah Roberts (NFL)
Detroit +4.5
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King creole
3* Carolina / Tampa Bay over 54.5
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Football Jesus
NFL SAINTS
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Cowherd Week 9 Blazin' 5
New England -5
LA Chargers +1
Minnesota -5
LA Rams -1
Tennessee +5.5
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Norm Hitzges' Picks of the Pole
SINGLE PLAYS:
Pittsburgh +3
Carolina -6.5
Washington -1.5
Houston +1
Seattle -1.5
Washington-Atlanta UNDER 47
Tampa Bay-Carolina OVER 54.5
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Bobby Ligs
5% Steelers
5% Falcons
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Vegas Synergy
4% Washington Redskins -125
4% Houston Texans +2.5
4% Green Bay +6
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4 For 4
Steelers +3
Redskins -1.5
Saints +1.5
Patriots -5
Sunday games 19-6
YTD 27-12-1
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WUnderdog
nfl
New Orleans +2 vs LA Rams
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JEFF MA
jets
falcons
broncos
bears
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Adam Thompson (NFL)
LAC +1
GB +5
KC -8.5
MIN -5.5
WASH -2
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Hank Goldberg (NFL)
GB +5.5
NO -1.5
SEA -2
HOU +1
WASH -1.5
CAR -6.5
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Larry Hartstein (NFL)
SEA -1
PIT +3
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Micah Robert (NFL)
CAR OVER 55
MIA UNDER 43.5
NE -5
WASH -1.5
LAR -1
DET +4.5
PIT +3
TEN +6.5
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RJ "PLAY EVERY GAME" White (NFL)
LAR -1.5
SEA +1
DEN -1
ATL +1.5
NYJ +2.5
BUF UNDER 37.5
PIT +2.5
CLEV UNDER 51
MIN UNDER 49
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Zack Cimini (NFL)
DET +5
CLEV OVER 52
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Marc Lawrence
Sunday Night Super Hot Perfect System Club Play!
Packers
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Tom Stryker
21-5 ATS NFL DIVISION BLOWOUT of the MONTH
Steelers
20-0 ATS NFL RARE DATABASE PERFECT WAGER
Chiefs
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Swag Picks
Chiefs -9.5
Patriots -6
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Virgobbi Sports
NFL Week 9, 11/4:
BUF +10.5 (-111)
BAL -2 (-110)
WAS -2.5 (-110)
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Arthur Ralph Sports
SUNDAY Super PK Carolina -6
GOLD Keys Minnesota-5,Pittsburg + 3, Seattle +1, Saints + 2 1/2
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Teddy Covers
5% Falcons +2
3% Rams
3% Over 56.5 Packers
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Lang
200 dimes New Orleans Saints +2 buy up to +3.5.
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ray chadwick
25 DIME
Winner # 21 of 31
Sunday Night Total of the Year
greenbay/pats over 56
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tommy brunson
18th-Ever NFL
150 DIME
Release of My Career
Blowout of the Year
kc -7
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al demarco
Top-Rated 15 Dime Winner
kc -7
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sky blue
NFL Record: 12-10-0
tb
cle
det
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larry hartstein (nfl)
Adding
DEN -1
NO +2
WASH -2
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Tony Finn
5% Steelers
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Marco D Angelo
5% Ravens
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Brayman
Sixth-Ever
Top-Rated
100 DIME
NFL Release of my Career
Redskins
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Pointwise phones
4-pittsburgh
3-kansas city
3-green bay
3-houston
3-carolina
2-chicago/buffalo under
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Maddux NFL
#451 - NFL - 10 units on Detroit +5
#452 - NFL - 10 units on Detroit & Minnesota Under 50.5
#459 - NFL - 20 units on NY Jets +3
#460 - NFL - 10 units on NY Jets & Miami Under 45
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Double Dragon Sports
7-UNIT TOPS
STEELERS +3 (-120) at ravens (1pm)
REDSKINS -1.5 vs falcons (1pm)
4-UNIT STRONGS
BUCS / PANTHERS OVER 55 (1pm)
CHARGERS +PK at seahawks (4:05pm)
SAINTS +3 (-130) vs rams (4:25pm)
PATRIOTS -5.5 vs packers (SNF - 8:20pm)
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NFL Football(Bob Balfe)
4:05 PM EST
Rotation #467-468
Chargers +1.5 over Seahawks
Today’s game showcases two teams that are flying under the radar. Seattle has strung together a few impressive wins as their offensive line has looked a lot better. The Chargers have been quietly taking care of business at have tremendous talent on both sides of the ball. The Chargers in my opinion have more talent. The Seahawks still have a new defense and I believe the Chargers match up very well in this game going against it. I don’t know if the Seahawks will be able to cover the tight ends and the running backs coming out of the backfield today. This is a tough building to play in, but without the elite defense of the past teams can and have proven they can win here. Phillip Rivers and the passing game will be a little bit too much for Seattle to handle. Take the Chargers.
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Millerlocks
1:00 PM EST NFL
PITTSBURGH STEELERS VS. BALTIMORE RAVENS
PICK: BALTIMORE RAVENS -2 (-110)
RISK: 11 UNITS
1:00 PM EST NFL
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS. CLEVELAND BROWNS
PICK: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -8 (-110)
RISK: 11 UNITS
1:00 PM EST NFL
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS VS. CAROLINA PANTHERS
PICK: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS +6 (-110)
RISK: 11 UNITS
4:05 PM EST NFL
HOUSTON TEXANS VS. DENVER BRONCOS
PICK: DENVER BRONCOS -1 (-115)
RISK: 11 UNITS
4:25 PM EST NFL
LOS ANGELES RAMS VS. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
PICK: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS +2 (-110)
RISK: 11 UNITS
8:20 PM EST NFL
GREEN BAY PACKERS VS. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
PICK: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -5.5 (-114)
RISK: 11 UNITS
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Phillygodfather
jets 3
bucs 7
atl/wash under 47.5
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Bondi
6 patriots
4 Falcons
3 Chargers
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From Northcoast group of handicappers:
Master Sports
NBA
4* #710 Phoenix +3.5
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MTI
4.5-Star Rams at Saints UNDER 57 - Both these teams have good defenses and both have running games. Both will want to limit the number of possessions of their opponent. We are on the UNDER.
The Rams are 0-10 OU on the road off a home win when they are facing a team that is averaging more than 6.6 rushing first downs per game, 0-10 OU on the road on artificial turf when their rushing yards dropped over each of their last two games and they are facing a team that has averaged less than 4.375 yards per carry, and 0-8 OU on the road when the line is within three of pick off a home win. The SDQL for the last of this trio is:
team=Rams and A and -3<=line=20101024
These eight games have stayed under by an average of 11.56 ppg and this includes two overtime games.
The Rams are also 0-8 OU (-9.50 ppg) on artificial turf facing a team that has won each of their last three games and 0-12 OU when they have more than three days rest off a win and they are averaging better than 4.4 yards per rush. The SDQL here is:
team=Rams and p:W and tS(RY) / tS(rushes) >4.4 and rest>3 and season >= 2011
The Rams have a pass rush and a great running back. They should try to avoid an air war with Drew Brees and the Saints.
Shifting our focus to New Orleans, we see that they qualify for a nifty system that makes a lot of handicapping sense. It involves the fact that Saints are a good team and they are facing a team that is ahead of them in the standing and can rush the ball. It reads:
NFL teams that won more than ten games the previous regular season are 0-20 OU at home off a road game when facing a team that has a better winning percentage and has rushed the ball more than 24 times per game season-to-date. Check it out by running this SDQL text:
H and PRSW>10 and p:A and WP24 and date>=20161208
This system was 0-10 OU last season and it is 0-4 OU this season.
Finally, New Orleans is 0-7 OU on artificial turf off a road game when they have more than three days rest and they are facing a team that has an averaged more than 32 minutes of possession time season-to-date, staying under by an average of 10.43 ppg.
The UNDER is the side on which to be.
MTis FORECAST: SAINTS 27 Rams 20
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MTI
4.5-Star Chiefs at Browns UNDER 51.5 - The Chiefs should feel no urgency to score here. They should adopt a conservative strategy and they should run the ball with a lead. The Browns have allowed a lot of yards this season and they have had a lot of trouble on offense recently. The play in the UNDER.
The evidence is strong. TD-plus favorites are 0-32 OU on grass when they are off a game as a favorite and they are facing a team that is off a loss and has allowed 355-plus yards of offense per game season-to-date. Thats 32 straight unders. See for yourself by running this SDQL text:
line =355 and op:L and date>=20151000
A quick scan of the game listing reveals that the Chiefs were the TD-plus favorite in this spot in three of the 32 games. The final scores in those three games were 10-3, 17-13 and 10-16.
The Chiefs themselves are 0-12 OU as a favorite off a win as a favorite when they are facing a team that has averaged at least 17 ppg over their last two games. The SDQL text is:
team=Chiefs and F and p:WF and oA(passes)>=35 and oA(points,N=2)>=17 and date>=20151225
It is also worth mentioning that Kansas City is 0-11 OU on grass vs a non-divisional opponent when they are off a home win in which fewer than 35 percent of their first downs were from third down. The SDQL here is:
team=Chiefs and surface=grass and NDIV and p:HW and p:3DM / p:FD = 2008
Shifting our focus to the Browns we see that they are 0-13 OU (-7.27 ppg) as a TD-plus home dog. The SDQL is a straightforward:
team=Browns and H and 7=20091210
David Njoku had zero fantasy points against the Steelers last week. This is an under indicator, as the Browns are 0-7 OU since the drafted Njoku in 2017 at home after any game in which he did not have a 20-plus yard reception. The SDQL for this one is:
team=Browns and H and Brownsavid Njoku:longest reception=2017
Finally, Cleveland is 0-11 OU (-10.00 ppg) at home after a SU and ATS loss.
Gregg Williams is a hard-nosed defensive coach. He likely will not get a win in his first game as a head coach of the Browns. However, the team will play aggressively and with passion. Certainly it would not be unreasonable for Andy Reid to play conservatively to avoid injury to his players. Make the UNDER the play and it will probably be a good idea to get the current line of 51.5.
MTis FORECAST: Chiefs 20 BROWNS 16
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MTI
5-Star Buccaneers at Panthers UNDER 55 - This number is whack. The Panthers are a very conservative team when they are expected to win. They will control the clock, play tough defense and keep the ball out of the hands of the Bucs offense.
In the history of the database, the Panthers are 0-6 OU as a home favorite when the OU line is higher than 48 (and 5-0 OU on the road with the OU line is higher than 48).
More evidence is the Panthers trend number 14 from the 2018 KillerSports.com Journal of Football Research, which reads, CAR014: The Panthers are 0-18 OU (-8.97 ppg) as a single-digit home favorite vs a divisional opponent that had fewer regular season wins the previous season.
The Panthers scored a lot of points vs the best defense in the league last week and this is contributing to the inflated line. As a dog, however, the Panthers will be more aggressive on offense. Here, they are a TD-plus favorite and should adopt a more Neanderthal pace.
Trendwise, we note that Carolina is 0-11 OU (-8.73 ppg) after a game as a home dog in which they scored at least nine points more than their season-to-date average. The SDQL text is:
team=Panthers and p:HD and tA(points) - points = 1999
Further, the Panthers are 0-12 OU on grass vs a divisional opponent that is not winless on the season and is averaging at least 12.5 passing first downs per game. The SDQL text is:
team=Panthers and surface=grass and DIV and oA(PFD)>12.5 and o:wins>0 and season >= 2013
For the Buccaneers, we can cite their trend number 13 from the 2018 KillerSports.com Journal of Football Research, which reads, TB013: The Buccaneers are 0-17 OU (-9.79 ppg) on grass off a road game when they are facing a team that is averaging more than 13 passing first downs per game.
Finally, Tampa Bay is 0-7 OU (-10.57 ppg) on grass when their QB was sacked 3+ times in each of their last two games, 0-6 OU (-14.08 ppg) when they are off a loss and they converted at least five third downs in each of their last two games, and 0-6 OU (-14.75 ppg) on grass facing an opponent that is off two consecutive games with a positive takeaway margin. Those are some nice average margins and they make great handicapping sense.
There is PLENTY of room under this number.
MTIs FORECAST: Panthers 23 Buccaneers 17
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MTI
4.5-Star BILLS +9.5 over Bears - The Bears will expect turnovers and they will feature their rushing and short passing game. This makes the Bills the play.
Chicago is 0-11 ATS on the road off a win by more than a TD as a favorite when they play their next two game at home. The SDQL text is:
team=Bears and p:F and p:margin>7 and A and n:H and nn:H and season >= 1993
Also, the Bears are 0-14 ATS (-14.75 ppg) as a favorite over a non-divisional opponent after a game in which they rushed for 145-plus yards.
Chicago is 1-7 straight up their last eight in this spot, with their lone straight up win by a 23-22 margin laying 7.5; and they needed to outscore their opponent 16-3 in the fourth quarter to get the win.
The Bears are also 0-11 ATS (-10.64 ppg) on the road after a game in which fewer than 30 percent of their previous opponents first downs were from third down and 0-7 ATS (-8.36 ppg) as a favorite after a win in which they never trailed.
Buffalo hung with the Patriots for the first three quarters last week before being outscored 13-0 in the fourth to lose 25-6. Buffalo passed for 287 yards and they are still dead last in the league at 149 passing yards per game. However, the Bills are 13-0 ATS at home vs a non-divisional foe when they are off a game in which they passed for at least 66 more yards than their season-to-date average, as long as they did not win that game by 27-plus points. The SDQL text is:
team=Bills and H and NDIV and tA(p:PY) - p:PY <= -66 and p:margin= 2004
Buffalo has won each of their last five in this spot, with every win by MORE than a TD.
The Bills have played poorly the past two weeks, but they continue to be underestimated in this spot. Buffalo is 13-0 ATS (+10.54 ppg) as a TD-plus dog when they lost and failed to cover each of their last two games. The SDQL for this one is:
team=Bills and line>=7 and p:L and p:ATSL and pp:L and pp:ATSL
They were in this spot once already this season and they crushed the Vikings 26-7 getting 16.5 points.
The Bears have a rookie head coach and they tend to play not-to-lose rather than to win. Make Buffalo the play.
MTis FORECAST: Bears 20 BILLS 17
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Rainman Memphis:
5 Star: Seattle, Washington
1 star: Pittsburgh
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MTI 10pt teaser
Balt
buff
clev
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BRIAN MAC SITE......
Augie J: Falcons; Lions
Philly Guy: Falcons; Dolphins; Broncos; Bucs
Joey Dimes (Top Play) Chiefs (Reg Play)Jets
Champagne Sports (Top Play) Seahawks (Regular Plays) Vikings; Patriots
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allan desrosiers
10 kc
7 tampa over
7 teaser kc -pitt
7 teaser min - miami
7 teaser atlanta-tb- buffalo
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Vegas Sharp 11/4 GOM
5 GOM - Chiefs -8
3 - Patriots O56
2 - Panthers O54.5
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AJ Penny
10 Detroit +5.5
10 Cleveland +8
10 Baltimore -2.5
10 Denver -1
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Tony Bruno 4-0 last week
bills
steelers
saints
seahwaks
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NorthCoast
3 1/2 * Houston
3* KC & Wash
Marquee Green Bay
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