Thursday 11/29/18 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NCAAFB, NFL & NBA games.
Ben Burns
3*
Dallas +7.5
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Marc Lawrence
Red Hot NFL Thursday Night 100% ATS Crush Play!
Cowboys
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King creole
2*
Indiana / LA LAKERS under 216
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HUDDLE UP
Guaranteed 500,000* NFL Lock
New Orleans -7'
Best Bets:
New Orleans/Dallas over 52'
LA Clippers -3
Indiana +4
Arizona -10
Guaranteed High Roller Total
Indiana/LA Lakers over 215'
Best Bet Totals:
New Orleans/Dallas over 52'
LA Clippers/Sacramento over 235
Alabama/UCF over 133
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Ken Thomson
1*
Albany n.y -1
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Stephen Nover
3*
Sacramento +3
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JR ODONNELL
3*
UC Santa Barbara -7.5
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JSM SPORTS
Lifetime Play
Dallas Cowboys +7.5
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JSM SPORTS
Lifetime Play
Dallas Cowboys +7.5
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Worlds Worst Picker NFL
New Orleans Saints vs Dallas Cowboys
Peabodys Pick:
Total:
Under
Fade = OVER
Peabodys NFL Record *
Overall Super Sunday
Wins: 45
Losses: 45
Wins: 8
Losses: 12
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Overunderexpert
NBA
735pm pt # 505
IND LAL
OVER 216
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nbaselection
Sacramento Kings / Los Angeles Clippers
Clippers -3
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Dave Essler
Dave Essler | NFLSide - Thursday, Nov 29 2018 8:20PM
302 DAL 7.5(-120) Westgate vs 301 NOS triple-dime bet
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Tony Finn
4% Saints -6 Good to -9
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John Ryan’s NFL 10-Star SIM Titan;
10* Cowboys +7.5
7* Sacramento +3 nba
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INSIDER SPORTS REPORT
4* Alabama/Central Florida OVER 133.5 (NCAAB)
Range: 132 to 136
3* New Orleans/Dallas OVER 52.5 (NFL)
Range: 50.5 to 54.5
3* Northern Arizona +8 over California-Davis (NCAAB)
Range: +10 to +6
NCAA FB 15-15 minus 3 units
NCAA BB 10-7 plus 12 units
NFL 11-12 minus 1 units
NBA 14-9 plus 13 units
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Analytical NBA Totals Bets
11/29/18 2 Plays:
2 units GS/Tor over 224.5
1 unit Ind/LAL under 217
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Fezzik
3* Dallas +7.5
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North Coast
Thursday Night NFL Marquee: New Orleans (-7) Dallas 8:20 pm FOX
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From Northcoast group of handicappers:
Great Lake Sports
CBB
4* #516 Troy -4.5
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Fezzik
3*
Dallas +7.5
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Greg shaker
2*
Central Florida / Alabama under 135
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Dave Essler
3*
Dallas +7.5
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Rockdeman Sports (CBB) - Samford +8.5
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Miller locks
7:00 pm est ncaab
alabama vs. Central florida
pick: Central florida -5 (-108)
risk: 11 units
8:20 pm est nfl
new orleans saints vs. Dallas cowboys
pick: New orleans saints -7 (-115)
risk: 11 units
9:00 pm est ncaab
georgia southern vs. Arizona
pick: Arizona -9 (-105)
risk: 11 units
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4For4
301 New Orleans Saints at 302 Dallas Cowboys
Spread: Cowboys +7
O/U: 51.5
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Line Movement
The Saints opened as 7-point favorites and the line continues to bounce back and forth between 7 and 7.5 depending on which sportsbook you view. As for the total, it opened at 53.5 but was bet down two full points to 51.5.
Public Betting
The Saints are attracting most of the betting tickets (71 percent) and money (61 percent). As of Thursday morning, most of the betting tickets (79 percent) and money (64 percent) is also on the over.
Trends
The underdog is 9-2 against the spread in the last 11 meetings between these two teams, while the home team has covered in four of the last five meetings. That said, the Saints are 8-3 at the betting window in their last 11 games against the Cowboys while the over is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Dallas.
Prediction
There is a compelling argument to be made for taking the points tonight. The Saints are playing their third game in 12 days, their ATS streak must end at some point (if not their winning streak) and every week oddsmakers continue to inflate New Orleans’ number.
That said, bet against the Saints at your own risk.
Drew Brees is completing 76.4 percent of his passes for 3,135 yards, 29 touchdowns and just two interceptions. He has two or more touchdown passes in 12 of his last 18 games and the Saints ground game has averaged 133.1 yards per contest this year. This is a juggernaut.
The real progress has been made defensively, however. The Saints are allowing 23.3 points per game and are playing their best defense of the season. Their front four did whatever it wanted to the Falcons’ offensive line last week and completely shut down Atlanta’s running game. Granted, New Orleans’ run defense numbers are skewed because opponents keep falling behind and are thus forced to ditch their running game. Still, the Saints own the No. 1 run defense in the league and if Dallas can’t run the ball behind Ezekiel Elliott, the Cowboys have no shot tonight.
Staying with that theme, if you like Dallas tonight than you believe the ‘Boys will run the ball effectively, continue to play excellent defense as they have over the past month and effectively play keep-away from Brees and the Saints. It’s not a ludicrous thought and if you’re right, Dallas may win the game outright.
However, if you’re like me, then you believe the Saints will halt Elliott behind a banged-up Dallas offensive line (one that could be without left tackle Tyron Smith again) and force Dak Prescott to keep pace with Brees. If that happens, then we all know how this one ends.
New Orleans is averaging 41 points per game over its last five contests and held six of its last eight opponents to fewer than 20 points. There’s a reason why they’re the current Super Bowl favorite and while the ‘Boys are also hot, it wasn’t that long ago when everyone (including Troy Aikman) was debating whether or not Dallas needed to blow things up. In a matchup of contrasting offensive styles, I’m fading the team that has been one-dimensional at times this season.
Pick: Saints -7
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INT picks
Dallas cowboys + 7 1/2
CBB Alabama -6 1/2
CBB Arizona -10
CBB UCSB -7 1/2
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Stats Analytics Sports (NFL 40-33 ytd +8.72 units)
1* Cowboys/Saints Over 51.5
NBA (33-30 ytd +5.31 units)
2* Lakers -4.5
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Nfac
900 Under 52 dal-no
750 Under 78 okl-tx
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Wolf from PGF
ATL -1 3%
Bama O63 2%
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world worst picker
Alabama
ucf -fade play
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ARTHUR RALPH
THURS Super Pick Saints -7
Gold KEY Sacremento +3 NBA
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allan desrosiers
ncaab
8 belmont
nfl
7 over
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Kelso
25 Dallas
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Sleepyj
2*
6pt tease Dallas +13.5 and Over 44.5
I like the dog here at home getting this many points. I also expect points to be scored..It's hard to keep the Saints off the board..Short week for both teams or rather a long week being both played on Thanksgiving. I still think the home team has a good edge though. Dallas can control the clock when they have the ball and move the ball I think. Saints don't use much clock as they score rather fast..So I'm not worried about time, I'm just hoping the Cowboys show up and play well enough to not get drilled..Some think the Cowboys can actually win this game..I feel safer getting Dallas a bunch of points..Saints are for real, I guess we will get an answer if Dallas is tonight for sure.
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Brian Bitler's Pick Pack
NFL Guaranteed Pick
Guaranteed Plays
Matchup: 301 New Orleans at 302 Dallas
Time: 8:20 PM EDT (Thu)
Play: Under (53 -110)
Line Source: Sportsbook.ag
Posted on: November 28, 2018 @ 8:58:00 AM EST
Absolute huge game for the Dallas Cowboys who sit in first place in the NFC East but only in a tie with the Redskins and the Eagles trail by one game at 5-6 so this game at home versus the Saints is really a must win and a statement game.
Cowboys have won 3 straight games and have seen a resurgence in their defense holding teams to around 20 points a game and I can see them doing it to the Saints as well this week. Road teams always seem to struggle on Thursday Night football and that crowd in Dallas will be rocking.
Saints have a very good defense as well even though the offense gets all the credit. Look for both teams to run the football heavily and drain that clock. There is just a ton of money backing the over here giving us a great bargain on the under and I can not pass it up as my biggest total of the season.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Dallas's last 20 games
Invest 10 units on the under here rotation #302
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Mario Rojas (11-29-18)
Best pick:
307825 Sacred Heart over 154 (Added games)
Secondaries picks:
301 New Orleans -7 *1500
510 Arizona -9 *1500
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Firefox Toronto
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Jack Jones: 20* DALLAS
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Tally thru this post.
New Orleans - 6
Dallas - 14
OVER - 5
UNDER - 5
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