Saturday 11/3/18 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for Wednesday’s NCAAFB, NFL & NBA games.
Doug Upstone
Nov 10 '18, 12:00 PM in 16h
NCAA-F | Maryland vs Indiana
Play on: OVER 55 -108
On Saturday, Play Over on teams like Maryland when the total is between 49.5 and 56, after one or more straight up losses, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%), playing a marginal losing team. In the 26 seasons the OVER is 28-6, 82.4 percent.
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Kenny Walker
Nov 10 '18, 12:00 PM in 16h
NCAA-F | BYU vs UMass
Play on: UMass +14 -105
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Info Plays
Nov 10 '18, 12:00 PM in 16h
NCAA-F | South Carolina vs Florida
Play on: South Carolina +6½ -110
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Freddy Wills
Nov 10 '18, 12:00 PM in 16h
NCAA-F | Navy vs Central Florida
Play on: Navy +24½ -110 at pinnacle
Navy +24.5 1.1% Free Play 12PM ET ESPN2
Navy is a dangerous team as a 20+ point dog, because as a team that runs the triple option they limit possessions. Since 1980 Navy is 34-14 ATS as a 20+ point dog, and when you combine that stat with all 3 service academies they are 69-32-3 ATS. Army was in this situation at Oklahoma as a 29 point dog earlier this season and nearly pulled the upset.
Navy has faced a much challenging schedule so I think we have some hidden value in the line when you consider they have faced an average opponent defense ranking 56th in yards per play allowed compared to UCF’s 74th. They have faced an average opponent offense ranking 50th in YPP, while UCF has faced #70. So I know the stats look like UCF should probably be a 35 point favorite, but put that into consideration here.
I understand this is a bad Navy team, but they still have the triple option that is challenging for a young defense like Central Florida to prepare for. Central Florida ranks 73rd vs. the run, and I think Navy can really hold onto the ball and limit the # of possessions in this game. Navy has had 48+ rushes in nearly every game, and those are the type of games that UCF is in closer battles. Against Temple last week they gave up 46 rushes for 226 yards and won by only 12, and that game was closer early. Against Memphis they gave up 52 carries for 281 yards and they won by only 1, and earlier in the year they were in a back and forth game that they ultimately won by 20 against FAU who ran the ball 50x for 320 yards. UCF has a bigger game next week they have to be looking ahead to against Cincinnati, and Navy was a 23 point dog on a neutral field to Notre Dame and covered just 2 weeks ago. Are we saying UCF is as good as Notre Dame?
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Brandon Lee
Nov 10 '18, 12:00 PM in 16h
NCAA-F | Illinois vs Nebraska
Play on: Nebraska -17 -111
Will Rogers
Nov 10 '18, 1:00 PM in 17h
NHL | Blackhawks vs Flyers
Play on: Flyers -127 at betonline
The set-up: Chicago is 6-7-3 overall, including 3-4-1 on the road. Philadelphia is 8-7-1 overall, including 3-4 at home. The Flyers come in off consecutive victories over the Coyotes and I think they carry that momentum over here. Philly already beat Chicago 3-1 at the beginning of November and note that the Hawks come in completely on tilt, having lost six straight.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia is 7-2 in its last nine after two or more SU wins. Consider the Flyers to continue the Blackhawks’ miserable start to the 2018/19 campaign on Saturday afternoon.
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Matt Josephs
Nov 10 '18, 3:00 PM in 19h
NCAA-F | Bowling Green vs Central Michigan
Play on: Bowling Green +7½ -110 at 5Dimes
This game won't be making ripples on the college football landscape but there is money to be made. Bowling Green can't stop anyone allowing over 500 yards per game and they are facing the anemic attack of Central Michigan which is averaging only 271.4 yards per contest. The Falcons have lost six straight, but they've been able to put up some points. BG has scored 36, 35, 14 and 28 the last four weeks. They've also covered two of those contests. Central Michigan has put up 10, 10, 7 their last three weeks as the passing attack continues to fail miserably. They are turning it over too much and not getting any momentum. The defense has forced seven turnovers the last two weeks, but if the offense can't do anything with it, then who cares. I'll take the road team as long as I can get the hook.
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Bobby Conn
Nov 10 '18, 3:30 PM in 19h
NCAA-F | Mississippi State vs Alabama
Play on: Mississippi State +24½ -110
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Jack Jones
Nov 10 '18, 3:30 PM in 19h
NCAA-F | Mississippi State vs Alabama
Play on: Mississippi State +24½ -115 at Bovada
Jack’s Free Pick Saturday: Mississippi State +24.5
The Alabama Crimson Tide are coming off their ‘game of the year’ against LSU last week. They passed the test in an impressive 29-0 road victory in Baton Rouge. If they were ever going to be flat, it would be this week against Mississippi State.
The Crimson Tide realize now that they could actually afford a loss and still make the four-team playoff. They have already clinched the SEC West title, which means they’ll be going to the Georgia Dome for the SEC Championship against Georgia. They could lose this game to Mississippi State and beat Georgia and still make the four-team playoff.
Of course, I’m not saying they’re going to lose to Mississippi State this week. I’m just saying this number is too high given the bad spot for Alabama. They put everything into that LSU game and certainly could suffer a ‘hangover’ effect here from it.
I also like that Mississippi State had an easy, stress-free win over Louisiana Tech 45-3 as 23-point favorites last week. That means they’ll have plenty left in the tank here for Alabama. And this team is really starting to playbill as they beat Texas A&M 28-13 as 1-point home favorites the previous week as well.
What gives Mississippi State a chance to be competitive in this game is a defense that has been the best scoring defense in the country this season. The Bulldogs are only giving up 12.3 points per game on the year. They are also only allowing 278.7 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play. There is a ton of NFL talent on this defense, especially along the defensive line.
The Bulldogs are giving up just 111 rushing yards per game and 3.3 yards per carry this season. They have been excellent against the pass as well, allowing 167 passing yards per game and 5.4 per attempt. Alabama hasn’t faced a defense this good yet.
Mississippi State has been one team that has given Alabama problems in recent years. Only three times in the last 14 meetings have the Crimson Tide beaten the Bulldogs by more than 25 points. Nine of those 14 were decided by 20 points or fewer. And Alabama has struggled over the years with mobile quarterbacks like Nick Fitzgerald, which is what the Bulldogs always seem to have. Bet Mississippi State Saturday.
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Ray Monohan
Nov 10 '18, 3:30 PM in 19h
NCAA-F | Oklahoma State vs Oklahoma
Play on: Oklahoma State +21 -106 at pinnacle
Oklahoma State +21
The Cowboys are catching too many points here.
Rivalry games are ones you'll see teams get up for. The Cowboys come in off a heartbreaking loss to Baylor last week, which is more of a reason for them to come out with some fire.
Oklahoma has also been a team who has failed to blow others out. The Sooners are just 4-5 ATS this season and escaped Texas Tech last week.
Given Oklahoma State scoring 38.3 points per game, they can certainly keep up here.
Some trends to note. Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Cowboys are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Grab the number.
Back Oklahoma State.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
Dustin Hawkins
Nov 10 '18, 3:30 PM in 19h
NCAA-F | Virginia Tech vs Pittsburgh
Play on: Virginia Tech +2½ -110
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Cappers Club
Nov 10 '18, 3:30 PM in 19h
NCAA-F | Washington State vs Colorado
Play on: Washington State -6 -105 at 5Dimes
Washington State -6
This play just missed out on our premium card. The Washington State Cougars and the Colorado Buffaloes face off on Saturday and in this game the Cougars have the value.
The Buffaloes got off to a fast start to the season, but now they are really struggling having lost four games in a row, all by at least seven points.
For Washington State they have the offense that can light up the scoreboard and I think they should be able to do that against the Buffaloes.
Back the Cougars
Good Luck, Cappers Club.
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Stephen Nover
Nov 10 '18, 3:30 PM in 19h
NCAA-F | Mississippi State vs Alabama
Play on: UNDER 54 -115
Alabama has piled up more than 500 yards in nine straight games. Tua Tagovailoa very well could win the Heisman Trophy. But what impresses me so much about the Crimson Tide is their defense. Every year, it seems, during the Nick Saban era the Tide seem to have multiple defensive players taken high in the NFL draft. Right now I project five Alabama defensive players to go in the first round this spring. Opponents are averaging just 14.1 points versus Alabama and 295.4 yards. Mississippi State is going to have problems denting this level of defense. Bulldogs quarterback Nick Fitzgerald has experience, moxie and can be a dual threat. I don't consider him an accurate passer, though, and he's not an elite quarterback. The Bulldogs did nothing offensively in their three losses this season falling to Kentucky 28-7, Florida 13-6 and LSU 19-3. That's an average of 5.3 points in those defeats. The Crimson Tide lead the nation in scoring averaging 51.3 points per game. There is some padding in that number, though. Alabama scored 51 or more points against Louisville, Arkansas State and Lafayette. Mississippi State is the best defensive team the Tide have faced. Alabama scored 29 points against LSU last week. LSU ranks 40th in yards allowed. Mississippi State gives up the sixth-fewest yards in the nation and third-fewest points at 12.3. Tagovailoa is dealing with a sore knee that he aggravated against LSU. Najee Harris, the Tide's leading rusher, is dealing with an ankle injury and Henry Ruggs III, probably Alabama's second-best wide receiver, has a leg injury. All three are expected to play, but could be at less than 100 percent. Note, too, that both teams play well below average in terms of pace ranking among the bottom 35 in that category. A slow pace certainly is a plus for the Under.
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Jesse Schule
Nov 10 '18, 3:30 PM in 19h
NCAA-F | Mississippi State vs Alabama
Play on: Mississippi State +24½ -110 at Bovada
This is a Free #NCAAF play on Mississippi State.
Alabama is on top of the world, coming off a 29-0 road win at LSU, and unanimously ranked #1 overall in the college football rankings. If there was ever a let down spot, this would be it. With Mississippi State at home this week, and then a minnow next week, the focus is likely on their final two games at home versus Auburn and Georgia. They aren't likely to have much trouble against the Bulldogs, heck they could probably beat them by 50+ if they really wanted to. The first order of business this week should be staying healthy. Saban would be wise to rest some starters if he has a chance to, and running up the score shouldn't be a priority. The Bulldogs aren't exactly allowing teams to run up the score this season, ranking #1 in the SEC in passing defense. They have held five consecutive opponents to less than 20 points. That's even more impressive when you consider that during that span they played Florida, Texas A&M, Auburn and LSU in Baton Rouge. I'll take the 24.5 points with Mississippi State.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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Steve Janus
Nov 10 '18, 3:30 PM in 19h
NCAA-F | Northwestern vs Iowa
Play on: UNDER 46½ -110
Totals Guru
Nov 10 '18, 7:00 PM in 23h
NCAA-F | South Florida vs Cincinnati
Play on: UNDER 56½ -110
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John Martin
Nov 10 '18, 7:00 PM in 23h
NCAA-F | Temple vs Houston
Play on: Houston -4½ -110 at BMaker
1 Unit FREE PLAY on Houston -4.5
The Temple Owls are coming off a tough loss to UCF by a final of 40-52 last week. That game essentially was for the AAC East title and the Owls now lost the tiebreaker. They don’t have a whole lot to play for the rest of the way, and I think this is a very tough spot for them mentally. Houston sits at 4-1 in AAC play and in first place in the AAC West, but only by one game over both SMU and Tulane. And they lost to SMU last week in an upset. They should respond well at home Saturday night knowing that they control their own destiny in the AAC West if they just win out. Houston is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this season with an average victory over nearly 30 PPG. They are scoring 53.2 PPG and averaging 595 YPG at home this year. Temple star RB Ryquell Armstead remains hobbled by an ankle injury that he played through against UCF, but you could tell that he was not anywhere close to 100%. And he’s questionable to play in this game Saturday. The Cougars are stout up front on the defensive line behind Ed Oliver, and they are only yielding 3.6 yards per rush this season. Houston is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after playing its last game on the road. The Cougars are 5-0 ATS in their last five games off an ATS loss. Give me Houston.
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Sean Murphy
Nov 10 '18, 7:00 PM in 23h
NCAA-F | Temple vs Houston
Play on: OVER 69 -110
Saturday NCAAF Free play. My selection is on the 'over' between Temple and Houston at 7 pm et on Saturday.
This one has all the makings of a shootout on Thursday night in Houston. Temple certainly got its offense in gear last week, putting up 40 points in a loss at Central Florida. Standout RB Ryquell Armstead is likely going to be a game-time decision on Saturday night, but even if he can't go, I still expect to see the Owls light up the scoreboard against a very beatable Houston defense. The Cougars are coming off a stunning 45-31 loss at SMU last week. While their defense leaves a lot to be desired, their offense has been humming along all season, putting up more than 40 points in all eight contest prior to last week's setback. I certainly expect to see them bounce back here at home. Temple's defense is good, but by no means elite. The losing side should have little trouble breaking 30 in this one and that sets us up well with the 'over'. Take the over (8*).
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Larry Ness
Nov 10 '18, 7:00 PM in 23h
NCAA-F | South Florida vs Cincinnati
Play on: Cincinnati -14 -108 at 5Dimes
My free play is on Cincinnati at 7:00 ET.
The Cincinnati Bearcats went to five consecutive bowls from 2011-15 but entered the 2018 season off back-to-back 4-8 seasons. However, it's been a rebirth in the Queen City this season, as Cincy opened 6-0, which earned them a ranking of 20th in the AP poll. The Bearcats fell 24-17 (OT) Oct 20 at Temple but they welcome USF to Nippert Stadium 8-1 and back in the AP poll at No. 25. In contrast, USF came into 2018 off 11-2 and 10-2 seasons. The Bulls opened 7-0 to climb to 21st in the AP poll but they have 'hit a wall' with back-to-back losses. USF lost 57-36 at Houston and followed that with an embarrassing 41-15 home loss to a sub-.500 Tulane at home, allowing the Green Wave to rush for 365 yards!
The Bulls come in shaken, after allowing 98 points. USF owns excellent balance on offense with dual-threat QB Barrett passing for 2,405 yards and 11 TDs plus rushing for eight TDs, while a pair of RBs average 7.0 YPC (Cronkite with 946 yards and seven TDs) and 7.8 YPC (Ford with 496 yards and eight TDs). However, the defense is a problem, allowing 30.9 PPG (90th) on 441.8 YPG (102nd). The Bearcats can score as well (35.0 PPG to rank 31st), behind QB Ridder (13-5 TD-to-INT ratio plus 426 YR and 4 TDs) plus RB Warren (931 YR / 5.2 YPC / 14 TDs). Unlike USF, Cincy can "bring the D," allowing just 14.0 PPG (6th) on 273.4 YPG (4th).
USF has 'played on the edge' all season, as while the Bulls won their first seven games this season, the team trailed at some point in SIX of those contests.The bottom line is that the Bulls have gone from being undefeated to losing back-to-back games, while getting blasted defensively. Meanwhile, the Bearcats can reach the American Athletic Conference Championship by winning their last three games. I'm laying the points!
Good luck...Larry
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Joseph D'Amico
Nov 10 '18, 8:00 PM in 1d
NCAA-F | Clemson vs Boston College
Play on: Clemson -19½ -106 at pinnacle
This Saturday is all about WINNING as I have some of the highest-rated college football releases yet this season. I have my NCAAF 73% ODDSMAKERS MISTAKE, AAC GAME OF THE MONTH, 20-3-1 HIGH ROLLER, and my OHIO STATE/MICHIGAN STATE EARLY WINNER. Get all these proven winners and line your pockets.
Saturday's NCAAF FREE WINNER: Clemson
Game 121.
5:00 pm pst.
Yes, I know Boston College is on an 18-7-1 ATS run. But, with a big win here, Clemson further solidifies their #2 ranking. Not only that, but the Tigers put more of a buffer between themselves and the rest of the ACC Atlantic. The Eagles won't have the same success offensively, facing the 4th ranked stop-unit in the nation (13.3 PPG allowed). Clemson is 4-0 ATS the last four games vs. conference opponents, 4-1 ATS the last four games played on the road, and 4-0 ATS the last four games played in the month of November. Take the Tigers. Thank you.
Ross Benjamin
Nov 10 '18, 8:00 PM in 1d
NCAA-F | Clemson vs Boston College
Play on: Boston College +20 -110 at sportsbook
Ross Benjamin has 5 college football winners up for sale on Saturday in what promises to be a huge money-making day!
Clemson @ Boston College 8:00 PM ET
Game# 121-122
Play On: Boston College +20.0
Boston College has gone 3-0 SU&ATS during their previous 3 games and that win streak improved its season record to 7-2 (.777). That stellar record has earned the Eagles a #17 national ranking heading into this game against a Clemson team which is 9-0 and ranked 2nd. Boston College has also gone a perfect 5-0 at home this season. Furthermore, the Eagles are 4-1 in ACC action and covered all 5 of those contests. As a matter of fact, dating back to last season, Boston College is 10-0 ATS in their last 10 ACC games while winning 8 of those contests straight up. It’s not like Clemson hasn’t been involved in some close calls. The Tigers defeated Texas A&M by 2 in addition to Syracuse by 4 while being a double-digit favorite in both games.
Any conference home underdog of 14.0-points or more that’s playing after Game 5 of their season while owning a win percentage of .700 or better, and they’re coming off wins in each of their previous 2 games, resulted in those home underdogs going 19-0 ATS since 1996. Those home underdogs also won 5 of those 19 games outright and all 14 straight up losses came by 17 points or less. Bet on Boston College plus the points.
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Mike Wynn
Free Play: Free Maryland/Indiana Over 55 Points
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Jim Feist
Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Saturday, November 10, 2018
11/10 12:30 PM PT / 3:30 PM ET
CF (119) VIRGINIA TECH VS (120) PITTSBURGH
Take: (120) PITTSBURGH
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Razor Sharp
YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR EARLY SATURDAY: NEBRASKA -17½ over Illinois
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Totals4U
Early Saturday's Free Selection: Michigan/Rutgers under 47 1/2
Atlantic Sports
Early Saturday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Central Michigan - 7 1/2
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#1 Sports
Early Saturday's Free Selection: Arizona State Sun Devils - 12 1/2
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Platinum Plays
Free Pick the Purdue/Minnesota game OVER 59 Points
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Sharp Bettor
SharpBettor FREE Play for Saturday, November 10, 2018
11/10 12:30 PM CF (181) MISSISSIPPI STATE VS (182) ALABAMA
Take : Alabama
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Easy Money Sports
Lee's Early Saturday Free Selection Is
Arizona State -11½
Nevada Sharpshooter
Your free winner for Saturday: Take SOUTH FLORIDA +14 over Cincinnati
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Golden Dragon
FREE WINNER for Saturday
BYU -13'
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Hawkeye Sports
Early Saturday's Free Pick: Iowa State Cyclones - 16 1/2
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Huddle Up Sports
Free Play: Memphis -17
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Arthur Ralph Sports
FREE play SAT: Troy -1
Vegas Steam Line
Your free winner for Saturday: Take FLORIDA-INTERNATIONAL -10 ove UTSA
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High Stakes Syndicate
Free Selection for Early Saturday: Middlle Tennessee Blue Raiders - 13 1/2
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Kenny Towers
FREE PLAY FOR SATURDAY - AIR FORCE -13 over New Mexico
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John Anthony Sports
Early Saturday's Free Selection: Michigan Wolverines - 38 1/2
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Tommy Brunson
Comp play for this Saturday is Michigan minus the moving truck full of points in their game against Rutgers.
With LSU falling to Alabama last Saturday night, Jim Harbaugh's team has moved into the playoff picture at # 4, and that should serve as inspiration enough for their "stop-you-in-your-tracks" defense to want to pitch a shutout against this terrible Scarlet Knight's team.
The Wolverines just held Penn State to only one score in their 42-7 win, so asking them to get on top of this big road number is only a matter of time, as they have outscored Rutgers by a 162-30 margin in winning the last 3 series meetings. Michigan has also covered in 5 of their last 6 games on the year, as Shea Patterson continues to be efficient - 2 more TD passes in the Wolves win over the Nittany Lions last weekend - while Karan Higdon toted the ball for 132 more yards.
Michigan is 5-1 their last 6 in conference play as the double-digit favorite, while Rutgers is on an overall 4-7 spread slide their last 11 games.
Granted, the Wolverines are "only" averaging 37 points per game so asking them to cover a -36 points or so impost is a tall order, but with the playoffs now in their own hands, I doubt the Wolverines mess around at all with the Scarlet Knights.
Michigan rolls!
2* MICHIGAN
How is a team with just 2 wins - one of them over Bethune Cookman no less - laying this kind of number against a 4 win team that happens to be coming off a 55-31 conference win their last time out!?!?!?
I will tell you how....Scott Frost is finally working some late season magic in Lincoln, and while they didn't defeat Ohio State last weekend, they came pretty damn close, losing by just 5 in Columbus to the Buckeyes.
Nebraska has won each of the last 3 series meetings over Illinois, winning by an average margin of 22 points per game. The Huskers are also on a 5-2 spread uptick the last 7 in the series, and do bring in a 3-0-1 spread mark their last 4 in Big Ten play.
Illinois on the other hand, is just 8-20 against the spread their last 28 as the road dog, and their defense is in the basement of the conference standings, allowing 45 points per game and over 500 yards of offense per game too in conference games.
Cornhuskers quarterback Adrian Martinez is dealing at 100% finally, and he is now up to over 1,900 yards passing with 12 touchdowns.
Going to ride Frost to keep things cooking with his improving-each-week Huskers.
Nebraska your comp play for Saturday.
3* NEBRASKA
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Jack Brayman
My free play for Saturday is on the Oregon Ducks, on the road at the Utah Utes. I was highly impressed with how the Ducks manhandled the UCLA Bruins, as quarterback Justin Herbert threw for 264 yards and two touchdowns.
Herbert hooked up with Dillon Mitchell, who caught eight passes for 156 yards and two touchdowns, and it appears the Ducks are back on track after snapping a two-game skid.
Tossing out the two losses, Oregon has scored at least 30 points in every other game. The team has the 39th best offense in the nation, and I like what I saw from the special teams unit. The Ducks have the 18th best punt return unit, and that'll help in Salt Lake City, putting the offense in good field position.
The other thing I like about Oregon's offense is its composure on 3rd and 4th down. The Ducks rank 25th on 3rd and 27th on 4th. That's important, in terms of confidence, as Oregon can attack the Utes' defense that is 85th in the nation in stopping teams on 4th down.
I will say this, Utah is No. 1 in the country with its red-zone defense, but after seeing how it lost at Tempe last week, I don't know what is going on internally. It was the first loss in five games for the Utes, and they didn't look the same.
Now Oregon comes in firing on all cylinders, and we're catching points?
I'll take the road dog here.
1* OREGON
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Gus Augustine
Don't let this big road impost stop you from riding the Ponies on Saturday, SMU will handle Connecticut with ease, even on the road!
The Mustangs started the year at 0-3 under new head coach Sonny Dykes, but things are percolating now for the Dallas invaders, as they have won 4 of their last 6, and have realistic bowl aspirations now in their sight.
The Huskies meanwhile are going nowhere fast, as they lost again last weekend at Tulsa - 6th straight loss! - and it also marked the 6th time this season they have lost by 30 points or more.
AAC series numbers show SMU with both a 3-0 straight up, and a 3-0 against the spread mark against Connecticut, winning by an average of 15 points per game, and covering by a 9 points per game margin.
UConn is just 3-14 their last 17 at home, and their defense has been allowing nearly 48 points per game which means veteran quarterback Ben Hicks is in store for a big, big day at Rentschler Field on Saturday afternoon.
Like I said, do not be afraid to "Ride the Ponies" on Saturday in this lopsided AAC meeting.
SMU gets the money minus the points.
5* SMU
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