Saturday 11/24/18 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for Wednesday’s NCAAFB, NFL & NBA games.
TEDDY COVERS
Event: (161) MICHIGAN at (162) OHIO STATE
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: November 24, 2018 12PM EST
Play: OHIO STATE 4.5 (-108)
3% Take Ohio State (#162)
Michigan hasn’t beaten Ohio State since 2011. They haven’t beaten the Buckeyes by a TD or more since 2003. Yet the betting markets seem convinced that not only is Michigan better than Ohio State this year, they’re MUCH better, capable of winning by margin at the Horseshoe in Columbus on Saturday. I’m not buying that argument one iota!
Yes, Ohio State’s defense has been gashed at times this season. But Michigan’s offense isn’t particularly explosive, particularly on the highway; struggling in relatively tight road wins at Northwestern and at Michigan State, as well as their early season loss at Notre Dame. Michigan’s defensive statistics are truly elite, but it’s not like the Wolverines have faced many (any?) offenses like what the Buckeyes bring to the table. QB Dwayne Haskins, RB JK Dobbins, and WR’s KJ Hill and Paris Campbell are the best quartet of weapons that Michigan has faced, by FAR!
Ohio State showed real resolve last week, a true ‘refuse to lose’ type of game, as they rallied from behind to beat Maryland in n OT thriller. It was a character test for Urban Meyer’s squad, and they passed it with flying colors. And, after 51 consecutive games as a favorite, the Buckeyes have been thoroughly de-valued here; a ‘bet-on’ team in this pointspread range. Take the Buckeyes.
__________________
SAL MICHAELS
NCAA-F | Nov 24, 2018
Florida vs. Florida State
Free Play on Florida -7 -109
__________________
BOBBY CONN
NCAA-F | Nov 24, 2018
UL-Lafayette vs. UL-Monroe
1* Free Play on UL-Lafayette +3 -115
__________________
KENNY WALKER
NCAA-F | Nov 24, 2018
Georgia Tech vs. Georgia
Georgia Tech+17 -110
__________________
JIMMY BOYD
NCAA-F | Nov 24, 2018
Utah State vs. Boise State
1* Free Pick on Utah State +135
I really like the Aggies to go into Boise and knock off the Broncos. Utah State opened the season with a 38-31 loss at Michigan State, where they blew a 4th quarter lead against the Broncos. They haven't lost since, rolling off 10 straight wins.
I know Boise State recently won at home over Fresno State as a small home dog, but I think the Bulldogs were a little overvalued, as that's a team that lost to Minnesota in non-conference. As for the Broncos, they got annihilated in their big step up game at Oklahoma State. I just feel Utah State is the far superior team and the only reason they aren't favored here is they come in off a sloppy 29-24 win at Colorado State.
I just think given what we have seen, that was more of the Aggies looking ahead to this game (note they could have lost and this still would have been for Mountain Division title and spot in the MWC title game. Boise is outscoring conference opponents 13.5 ppg, but that's nothing compared to the +24.7 average scoring margin for Utah State.
I just don't see the Broncos being able to keep pace offensively in this one and the last 6 times they have played in an expected shootout (total of 63 or more) they have only won two of them. Take Utah State!
__________________
BLACK WIDOW
NCAA-F | Nov 24, 2018
Navy vs. Tulane
Tulane-7
__________________
DUSTIN HAWKINS
NCAA-F | Nov 24, 2018
Marshall vs. Florida International
Free Play on Marshall +1½ -110
__________________
DOUG UPSTONE
NCAA-F | Nov 24, 2018
BYU vs. Utah
Utah-11
Utah will be playing for the Pac-12 title next week, but before then they have to play in the Holy War against BYU. The Utes were sent out at -13.5 and have slipped to -11. A portion of those betting football wonder how seriously Utah will take this rivalry with a more important game on the line next week and others have noticed eight of the past nine battles have been decided by a touchdown or less is what matters. One still has to wonder about the Cougars scoring against better defenses and the fact Utah is 8-1 ATS as a home favorite.
__________________
CHIP CHIRIMBES
Minnesota (+) over Wisconsin
It has been a very disappoint season for Wisconsin and and even more so for their supporters who went 3-8 ATS this season. Minnesota is the same as they've always been and need a win here to become bowl eligible. But, you can still SWEPT the board one way for you to go 5-0 is to get Chip's Fab-5 of NCAA Best Bets or even 3-0 with his Top-3) with Chip today...8-1 88% last nine NCAA Best Bets...get it NOW. Gophers will lay it all out here. Take MINNESOTA!
__________________
MARK WILSON
NCAA-F | Nov 24, 2018
Florida vs. Florida State
Free Play on Florida State +4 -105
__________________
INFO PLAYS
NCAA-F | Nov 24, 2018
UAB vs. Middle Tennessee State
1* Free Play on UAB vs Middle Tennessee State under 52 -110
__________________
CALVIN KING
NCAA-F | Nov 24, 2018
Notre Dame vs. USC
[1%] Free Play on USC +10½
__________________
RED DOG SPORTS
Soccer | Nov 24, 2018
Roma vs. Udinese
Roma -125
The free soccer play is to take Roma -125 on Saturday. This match takes place in Italy.
Udinese 1
Roma 2
__________________
LARRY NESS
NCAA-F | Nov 24, 2018
South Carolina vs. Clemson
Clemson-25
My free play is on Clemson at 7:00 ET.
11-0 Clemson looks to cap a perfect regular season when it closes its season by hosting in-state rival, South Carolina (6-4). The Tigers are looking for a 5th consecutive win over the visiting Gamecocks but haven't won five straight against South Carolina since putting together a seven-game streak from 1934-40.This marks the 116th all-time meeting, with the first meeting coming back in 1896. The Clemson-South Carolina rivalry is the second-longest continuous rivalry in Division I college football and the longest uninterrupted rivalry series in the South (Clemson leads 69-42-4).
South Carolina head coach Will Muschamp, in his third year at South Carolina, says the intensity of this game is not lost on him. "It's a passionate game and very important to our state," Muschamp said. "One of the great rivalries in college football." The 6-4 Gamecocks are bowl-eligible for a third straight year but Muschamp knows his team faces a monumental task in attempting to handle the Tigers' defensive front of Christian Wilkins, Dexter Lawrence, Clelin Ferrell and Austin Bryant. Against Clemson's dominant run defense (91.9 YPG ranks 4th), the Gamecocks’ passing game will likely need to have a big day. QB Jake Bentley (65.1% / 2244 yards / 19-9 ratio) has completed a pass of 50 or more yards in each of the last four contests, with a total of six over that span. The South Carolina D will have its hands full with Clemson's dominant offense, as the Gamecocks allow 26.7 PPG (63rd) on 413.0 YPG (81st).
Clemson is one of two teams in the nation that ranks in the top-10 in both total offense (eighth) and total defense (second). The offense can hurt opponents passing and running with freshman QB Trevor Lawrence (2,095 yards with 21 TDs & four INTs) and RB Travis Etienne (1,185 yards on 8.5 YPC), who tied the school record with his 17th rushing TD of the season last week. The passing game (272.3 YPG ranks 9th) and the running game ranks 13th (249.3 YPG). Clemson’s defense has not allowed a TD in eight quarters and has given up more than 312 total yards only once all season. It allows a nation-best 12.1 PPG on 262.0 YPG (2nd).
Yes, this a HUGE rivalry game but the Tigers come in not just winning but winning BIG! They've won six consecutive games by at least 20 points to match the longest such streak in program history. Clemson has won 14 straight at home, a streak that began with a 56-7 drubbing of the Gamecocks in 2016. The Tigers have scored at least 27 points in a school-record 12 consecutive contests and have held seven straight opponents to 20 points or fewer. Throw in that South Carolina has dropped NINE straight games against ranked opponents since beating Tennessee in 2016 and I'll lay the points with Clemson.
Good luck...Larry
__________________
MARC LAWRENCE
NCAA-F | Nov 24, 2018
Purdue vs. Indiana
Indiana+4
Play - Indiana (Game 212).
Edges - Hoosiers: 5-3 SU and 6-1 ATS at home after scoring fewer than 35 points under head coach Tom Allen … Boilermakers: 2-8 ATS last ten as road favorites; and 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS since upsetting Ohio State a month ago … With the Hoosiers out to avenge last year’s season ending loss that sent Purdue to a bowl game and left Indiana home for the holidays, look for the tables to turn here today. With that we recommend a 1* play on Indiana. Thank you and good luck as always.
__________________
BRANDON LEE
NCAA-F | Nov 24, 2018
Kansas State vs. Iowa State
Kansas State+13½ -117
10* FREE NCAAF PICK (Kansas State +13.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Wildcats going into Ames and at worst keeping this thing within the number against the Cyclones. I actually think given the spot here, Kansas State has a very good shot at winning this game outright.
This is just one of those brutal spots for a team to play, as Iowa State just played a game last week against Texas, where a win would have meant they would have needed to simply win at home over a mediocre at best K-State team to make the Big 12 title game. To go from having that much at stake to just playing for pride is really hard and I just don't see this Cyclones team showing up.
Teams struggle in this spot every year, but I just recently cashed in on this, as I loaded up on Tennessee as a home dog against a ranked Kentucky team the week after the Wildcats lost to Georgia. Had they beat Georgia, they would have clinched the SEC East and still had an outside shot at the CFB playoffs. It wasn't even close as the Vols won 24-7.
Let's also not overlook the fact that K-State comes in playing with a ton of confidence, as they are off back-to-back wins, including a 21-6 upset win over Texas Tech last week. There's also a ton at stake for Bill Snyder's team, as the Wildcats need a win to secure bowl eligibility. All we need is for them to not lose by two or more touchdowns. Give me K-State +13.5!
__________________
ROB VINCILETTI
NBA | Nov 24, 2018
Celtics vs. Mavs
Celtics-1½
The NBA Play is on Boston at 8:30 eastern. The Celtics have covered 4 of the last 5 here in Dallas and 42 of 60 long term on Saturdays. The host in the series has failed to cover 20 of 27. Looking at a nice league wide system we see that road favorites with no rest ff a road favored win have covered 72% since 1995 vs a team that scored 110 or more as a home favorite like Dallas last out. With the Celtics 4-0 as a road favorite this year with no rest we will Back Boston.. Play on the Celtics.
__________________
EXECUTIVE SPORTS
Event: (211) PURDUE at (212) INDIANA
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: November 24, 2018 12PM EST
Play: INDIANA 4.5 (-108)
INDIANA +4.5
PURDUE is 4-14 ATS in road games after gaining 375 or more passing yards in last game. PURDUE is 5-15 ATS off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite. INDIANA is 29-15 ATS in home games after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. Take INDIANA playing at home needing that important 6th win.
__________________
KEVIN DOLAN
Event: (161) MICHIGAN at (162) OHIO STATE
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: November 24, 2018 12PM EST
Play: Total Under 57.0 (-110)
Jim Harbaugh has all eyes set on Columbus this Saturday for likely the biggest rivalry in college football as the fourth-ranked Wolverines take on the tenth-ranked Buckeyes.
Ohio State has won eight straight in Columbus and Harbaugh will be keen to stop that trend on Saturday as the Buckeyes also have hopes of upsetting the playoff applecart and potentially squeezing into the Playoffs themselves off the back of a big win here.
OSU's QB Dwayne Haskins has been more dominant than Michigan's QB Shea Patterson this season, putting up significantly more yards per game, a better TD-INT ratio and a higher completion percentage than his Wolverines counterpart, so Jim Harbaugh will likely focus more on Michigan's strengths in a more defense orientated game rather than getting involved in a shootout up in Columbus.
And what a defense this Michigan team possesses, ranking 1st in the country in opponent yards per game, limiting opposing offenses to just 212.5 ypg on the road and three of their last four opponents to just 7 points per game.
This is a game both teams have had circled all season for different reasons and we like defense to prevail here as this game likely comes in well Under the total.
Take the Under in Columbus on Saturday.
PICK: UNDER 57
__________________
DAVE COKIN
Event: (209) LSU at (210) TEXAS A&M
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: November 24, 2018 7PM EST
Play: LSU 3.5 (-108)
I'm going right into the face of lots of sharp money showing on the Aggies side. To me, this number has now reached the point where there's simply too much value to pass on. LSU is heading to College Station with some defensive injuries, as they're still down a pair of secondary starters and the defensive front is dinged up as well. Nevertheless, I have the Tigers as the better team. I have LSU -1 here on my projections and taking more than a field goal is value I have to play. It's also no a bad matchup for the Tigers as they're likely to have success throwing the ball against a leaky Aggies secondary. Plus there's the turnover statistic. That can be random for sure, but we're still talking about a differential of 19 in this matchup. LSU is +12 for the season, the Aggies are -7. I think this one is a tossup and now that the number has crossed through 3, I'm compelled to back LSU with the points.
__________________
SPORTS CHEETAH
Event: (225) NOTRE DAME at (226) USC
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: November 24, 2018 8PM EST
Play: NOTRE DAME -10.0 (-108)
__________________
BOBBY LIGS
Event: (181) UTAH STATE at (182) BOISE STATE
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: November 24, 2018 10PM EST
Play: UTAH STATE 2.5 (-102)
__________________
Mike Wynn
Free Play: Illinois +17 Over Northwestern
__________________
Totals4U
Early Saturday's Free Selection: New Mexico State/Liberty over 73 1/2
__________________
Atlantic Sports
Early Saturday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Arkansas State - 11
__________________
#1 Sports
Early Saturday's Free Selection: Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles - 13
__________________
Platinum Plays
Free Pick: the Rutgers Scarlet Knights +26½ over Michigan St
__________________
Golden Dragon
FREE WINNER for Saturday
Purdue -3'College FB
__________________
Hawkeye Sports
Early Saturday's Free Pick: Wyoming Cowboys - 7
__________________
Huddle Up Sports
Free Play: Troy +10' College FB
__________________
High Stakes Syndicate
Free Selection for Early Saturday: Georgia Southern Eagles - 10 1/2
__________________
John Anthony Sports
Early Saturday's Free Selection: Tennessee Volunteers + 3 1/2
__________________
Razor Sharp
YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR EARLY SATURDAY: SMU -2½ over Tulsa
__________________
Jim Feist
Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Saturday, November 24, 2018
CF (197) OKLAHOMA STATE VS (198) TCU
Take: (197) OKLAHOMA STATE
Reason: Your free play for Saturday, November 24, 2018 is in the College football contest between Oklahoma State and TCU. Your free play is on Oklahoma State.
__________________
Jeff Allen
Saturday's Free Selection is on the Toronto Maple Leafs
__________________
Kenny Towers
FREE PLAY FOR SATURDAY - CLEMSON/SOUTH CAROLINA UNDER 58½
__________________
BIG AL
Our complimentary selection for Saturday, Nov. 24 is:
Miami-Florida -4.5 over Pittsburgh.
__________________
TOMMY BRUNSON
Big impost today in Storrs, as revenging Temple pays a visit to hapless Connecticut. My free play is to lay the lumber - and I do mean LUMBER - with the Owls who somehow lost a 29-24 decision last year at home to the Huskies as the -11 point favorites.
No chance UConn at 1-10 pulls a stunner today, as this young Huskies team has lost 8 of their 10 games this season by 30 points or better. That includes allowing 55 points last weekend to the then 2-win East Carolina Pirates! Randy Edsall's team allows nearly 50 points per game on the season, and the generous points that they get each weekend have been of little help, as Connecticut is a money-burning 2-8-1 against the spread for the season.
Temple is on a 16-7-1 roll when favored on the road, and after an 0-2 start to the year, Geoff Collins' team can end their regular season with 3 straight wins, and 8 wins over their last 10 games. Rock Armstead was just held to a season-low in rushing yards last weekend in the Owls home 27-17 win over South Florida, with the Connecticut defense allowing 8 yards per rush this season, expect a steady diet of Armstead today as he chews up the yards, scores the football, and helps the Owls get out in front early in this game - a revenge game at that! - and Temple just balloons their lead all game long!
It is 8 losses this year by 30 points or more, and very soon to be 9 losses by 30 or better.
Owls take this one 52-10.
Lay it with Temple.
4* TEMPLE
__________________
GUS AUGUSTINE
After getting humbled, 44-17 last year in Lexington, look for Kentucky to make the short trek to Louisville this Saturday night and return the favor on this Louisville team that has had one nightmare of a year and the end cannot come fast enough for this Cardinals team!
Bobby Petrino was shown the door, but it did not matter last week for interim coach Lorenzo Ward, as the Redbirds were held to only 10 points in a 52-10 home loss to the N.C. State Wolfpack. That loss runs the losing streak for the 'Ville to 8 in a row, and it runs the spread mark for the year to 1-10, with 6 spread losses in a row on the Cards ledger.
Kentucky is not to be confused with the Wolfpack when it comes to being a "scoring machine", but the fact is Louisville has not played defense all that often this season, and they have allowed 239 points total in their last 4 losses. My feeling is Barry Snell Jr. who is just a little north of 200 yards rushing coming into this game to take over the all-time school rushing record will be hearing his number called all night long as the 'Cats look to end his regular season in record-breaking fashion.
The Wildcats also feature the top defensive play-maker in Josh Allen who has set the Wildcats single season sack record is working on #14 coming into this game, and you can figure on him recording it against the stagnant Louisville offense that is only scoring at 16+ points per game over their last 3.
Kentucky has failed 12 straight when favored, but the fact the road team is 4-0 both straight up and against the spread in this Governor's Cup rivalry, and is on a 10-1 against the spread run the last 11 series meetings tells me that the time has come for the Wildcats to actually cover a game they are favored in for a change.
UK in a big way over the 'Ville for Saturday night.
1* KENTUCKY
__________________
STEPHEN NOVER
NCAA-F | Nov 24, 2018
Arkansas State vs. Texas State
Arkansas State-10½
It has been another horrible season for Texas State. The Bobcats are 3-8. That gives them the grand total of 10 victories during the past four years. The Bobcats fired head coach Everett Withers this past Sunday. Interim coach Chris Woods will coach the Bobcats final game of the season Saturday against Arkansas State, which is tied for first in the Sun Belt Conference's West Division. Arkansas State has momentum winning and covering its last three games all by 14 or more points. Two of those victories were against South Alabama (38-14) and UL Monroe (31-17). Texas State met both of those teams, too, and lost to South Alabama, 41-31, and was beaten by UL Monroe, 20-14. The Bobcats have scored seven points in each of their last two games. This scoring drought has coincided with a season-ending injury to starting quarterback Willie Jones III. Tyler Vitt, a true freshman, replaced Jones. Vitt has thrown 10 interceptions, averaging an interception every 10 throws. Texas State ranks 121st in yards and 119th in points averaging 20.9 per game. The Red Wolves have the most prolific passer in the Sun Belt, senior Justice Hansen. He leads the conference in passing yards and touchdowns with 25. No other Sun Belt quarterback has more than 16 touchdown throws. Keyed by Hansen, the Red Wolves lead the Sun Belt in total yards per game with 461. Arkansas State is the far superior team with a monster edge in the passing game. The Red Wolves have the motivation. Texas State has an inexperienced freshman quarterback and an interim head coach. Given these signifciant matchup and situational edges, Arkansas State should cover this point spread margin.
__________________
STEVE JANUS
NCAA-F | Nov 24, 2018
Florida vs. Florida State
1* Free Sharp Play on Florida State +7½ -105
__________________
FREDDY WILLS
NCAA-F | Nov 24, 2018
Notre Dame vs. USC
Notre Dame -11
It's well documented that I don't think Notre Dame is a top 10 team never mind a final 4, but this is a situation where I think they are the far superior team at just about every level including coaching where it's clear Clay Helton will be fired after this season regardless of what happens in this game. I don't see USC fighting for a bowl game either, as I think the majority of the team is over the season. I think they may hang around early in this game but Notre Dame will pull away late, and they will be well aware of the point spread.
USC's defense has given up 30+ points 5 times this season, and they have not faced an offense that can run and pass as well as Notre Dame can. Since Dexter Williams came back at RB Notre Dame has won all of their games by double digits with the exception of their game against Pitt where they were -2 TO margin. That does not happen here as USC is 113th in TO margin. JT Daniels is going to turn the ball over here a couple times, and that's another thing that will allow Notre Dame to cover this spread. Notre Dame also has won by 29, 20,21, 29, and 5 points when they run for more than 200 yards in a game, which is likely against USC's run defense that is ranked 64th against a very weak strength of schedule facing on average 70th ranked rushing offense. UCLA ran for more than 300 yards a week ago, and Notre Dame ran for over 300 yards last season. Notre Dame will win this game and face Clemson in the college football playoff as 9.5 point dog, and I'll be on Clemson when it happens.
__________________
HUNTER PRICE
NCAA-F | Nov 24, 2018
NC State vs. North Carolina
1* Free Pick on NC State -6½ -110
__________________
RAY CHADWICK
My comp play for Saturday is Rutgers plus the points at Michigan State.
When was the last time Michigan State score 4 touchdowns in a game? How about all the way back on September 29th!
That being the case, it's hard to lay this many points with a Spartans team that simply has no offense right now to speak of. Quarterback Brian Lewerke has been bothered by a shoulder injury pretty much all season long, while back-up Rocky Lombardi has struggled without a touchdown pass in his last 2 games.
The Sparty defense will be the deciding factor in this game, as State has a stanch enough defense today that will be the difference as Michigan State stops their 2 game slide, but since the Spartans are only 2-4 against the spread this season when laying the wood, my suggestion is to ride the spread-covering Scarlet Knights to the Winner's Circle this afternoon.
Rutgers has lost each of their last 10 games, but they have been providing solid value to their backers in the big-dog role down the stretch, as the Knights have covered their last 4 in Big Ten play, all of them as the double-digit underdog.
With no more than 24 points scored in any of their last 7 games, and just 12 points total for their last 2 games, it makes it very difficult to lay nearly 28 points with Mark Dantonio's team this afternoon.
Points to work for the 5th straight week as the Big Ten big dog.
Free play winner on Rutgers.
2* RUTGERS
__________________