Saturday 12/1/18 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for Wednesday’s NCAAFB, NFL & NBA games.
Cole Faxon
Dec 01 '18, 12:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-F | Akron vs South Carolina
Play on: South Carolina -29 -
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Bobby Conn
Dec 01 '18, 12:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-B | Louisville vs Seton Hall
Play on: Seton Hall -3 -105
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Ray Monohan
Dec 01 '18, 12:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-F | Akron vs South Carolina
Play on: Akron +30 -105 at 5Dimes
Akron Zips +30
An added game will pin the Zips and Gamecocks in a rare spot here.
This is a game likely the Gamecocks don't want to have to deal with. It's been an up and down year and with 6 wins already, they are ready for bowl season.
Akron meanwhile, knows they won't have a postseason, which means you'll get some inspired play here with the season coming to an end win or lose.
Grab the points.
Back Akron.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
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Hunter Price
Dec 01 '18, 12:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-F | Marshall vs Virginia Tech
Play on: Marshall +3½ -105
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Marc Lawrence
Dec 01 '18, 12:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-F | East Carolina vs NC State
Play on: East Carolina +24 -103 at 5Dimes
Play - East Carolina (Game 327).
Edges - Pirates: 8-1 ATS versus ACC opponents, including 3-0 SUATS the last three in this series … Wolfpack: 1-4 ATS when coming off a SU win and an ATS loss … With NC State heading off a ball game. Look for this to be the Pirates bowl game. We recommend a 1* play on East Carolina. Thank you and good luck as always.
Alex Smart
Dec 01 '18, 1:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-B | NC-Greensboro vs Kentucky
Play on: Kentucky -12 -110 at BMaker
UNCG is a quality team and will bring a 7-1 record into Rupp Arena on Saturday, its only loss coming on the road to LSU. They have the Wildcats attention, and the home team will be ready take them on here today.UK has looked lethargic at times this season but have made strides its last time out when the Wildcats held Monmouth to 44 points and 27.6-percent shooting, both season best totals. I look for the momentum of that effort to carry on into todays tilt.
The difference maker here today, will come under the glass, where the Wildcats are at plus-16.9, averaging 41 and allowing only 24.1 ranked No.1 in the nation.
Play on Kentucky to cover
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Frank Sawyer
Dec 01 '18, 1:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-F | UL-Lafayette vs Appalachian State
Play on: UL-Lafayette +17 -103 at 5Dimes
Take the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers. UL-Lafayette (7-5) has won three straight games with their 31-28 upset win at UL-Monroe as a 1.5-point underdog. The Ragin’ Cajuns generated 453 yards of offense in the game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. UL-Lafayette has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. Appalachian State (9-2) has won four straight games with their 21-10 win over Troy last week. But the Mountaineers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning at least three straight games. Appalachian State has also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 home games after playing two conference opponents in their last two contests. Take UL-Lafayette plus the points. Best of luck — Frank.
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Brandon Lee
Dec 01 '18, 1:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-F | UL-Lafayette vs Appalachian State
Play on: Appalachian State -16½ -118 at betonline
10* FREE NCAAF PICK (Appalachian State 16.5)
I think for a lot of people that handicap this game, are going to see how close the first game was between these two teams and be quick to jump on the Ragin’ Cajuns. I just think that first go around is a bit misleading.
You have to keep in mind that no one was picking Lafayette to win the West. In fact, just about everyone was picking Arkansas State or ULM. When these two teams met in the regular season it was a really tough spot for Appalachian State. They were coming off a a huge road win over Arkansas State and had a massive showdown at Georgia Southern on deck in a matter of just 5 days. I just don’t think they took the Ragin’ Cajuns all that seriously and they were up 17-points before Lafayette added a garbage TD in the final minutes to lose by 10.
This time around Appalachian State is going to be 100% locked in and I just think that there’s a big enough gap in talent that a focused and motivated Mountaineers team, especially at home, will have no problem winning here by at least 20 points.
Offensively these two teams are pretty similar, as both have made a living with their running game. The big difference is the two defenses. Appalachian State is giving up just 15.4 ppg and 278 ypg games (only 4.3 yards/play). Lafayette isn’t even close to that. The Ragin’ Cajuns come in allowing 34.0 ppg and 443 ypg (6.5 yards/play).
If you remember back to last year, these two teams played on Dec. 2nd with Appalachian State needing a win to secure at least a tie of the Sun Belt regular-season title and they annihilated Lafayette 63-14 on their home field as a mere 14-point favorite. You also can’t ignore the fact that the books had the Mountaineers as a 26-point favorite the first time around. I get that line was probably a few points high, but I think they have over-adjusted. Give me Appalachian State -16.5!
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Matt Josephs
Dec 01 '18, 3:00 PM in 4h
NCAA-B | Harvard vs Siena
Play on: Siena +8½ -110 at sportsbook
Siena has lost four straight entering this one against Harvard. The Saints have flashed some competitiveness during that stretch and are getting a Harvard team that could be without leading scorer Chris Lewis. Siena has two good scorers with Jalen Pickett and Evan Fisher, but not a ton behind them. Harvard is 4-3 and still waiting for their two best players to even play their first game of the season. The Crimson have lost to Northeastern, Rhode Island and San Francisco. The team's wins were against MIT, UMass, St. Mary's and Holy Cross. I think they are laying a little bit too much in this one as overcoming Lewis' injury will be tough.
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Jesse Schule
Dec 01 '18, 3:30 PM in 4h
NCAA-F | Memphis vs Central Florida
Play on: Central Florida -170 at 5Dimes
This is a Free #NCAAF play on the UCF Knights. The self proclaimed "national champs" are gunning for a second consecutive perfect season, but they have to face rivals Memphis without their star quarterback McKenzie Milton. When you consider that the Knights had to rally from behind to beat the Tigers by a single point with Milton under center earlier this year, you might think that UCF is in trouble. Keep in mind that game was at Memphis, and this game will be played in Orlando. Milton was nowhere near at 100 percent in that game either, he was unable to run the ball and he completed just 17 of 29 passes for 296 yards and a TD. I don't think it's asking much of Darriel Mack Jr. to put up similar numbers here in the AAC Championship Game. He already picked up a solid 37-10 road win over ECU earlier this year while filling in for an injured Milton. He ran for 120 yards and a TD in that game. The Knights are 10-0 straight up versus Memphis since 2007, and a perfect 5-0 ATS at home during that span. I'll take the home favorite to get the "W". Take UCF. GL,
Jesse Schule
Mike Williams
Dec 01 '18, 4:00 PM in 5h
NCAA-F | Georgia vs Alabama
Play on: Georgia +13 -110
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Kenny Walker
Dec 01 '18, 4:00 PM in 5h
NCAA-F | Georgia vs Alabama
Play on: Alabama -12½ -106
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Mark Wilson
Dec 01 '18, 4:00 PM in 5h
NCAA-B | George Washington vs Princeton
Play on: George Washington +7½ -
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Freddy Wills
Dec 01 '18, 4:00 PM in 5h
NCAA-F | Georgia vs Alabama
Play on: Alabama -12 -110 at betonline
Alabama -12.5 2.2% Free Play
I looked hard to find reasons to take the dog here, but just couldn't find them. Alabama is 6th against the run, and probably better than that when you factor in how many games their defense was just not trying because their offense put up 40+ points in the first half. When Tua came into the game last year it was just a different game as Alabama went on a 26-10 run on their way to a come back victory. This year's Georgia is just as good on offense if not better, but they lack some of the senior laden leadership, and their defense is not nearly as good ranking 46th vs. the run, and 62nd in defensive success rating. Alabama is #1 in offense and defensive success rate and a ridiculous 27.2 % success rate differential. Compare that with Georgia who is at 11.4%. To impact this game Georgia needs to get after Tua, and we have seen him make mistakes, but Georgia ranks 118th in sack % this year against teams that don't protect the QB well, and Alabama's offensive line has been a rock. This is a high total, and I expect a cover by Alabama winning by 20+ points.
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Steve Janus
Dec 01 '18, 5:30 PM in 6h
NCAA-B | Temple vs St. Joe's
Play on: St. Joe's -3½ -110 at YouWager
1* Free Sharp Play on St. Joe's -3½ -110
My money is on the Hawks to cover against the Owls in Saturday's battle of the birds on the college hardwood. Temple comes in at 6-1, while St Joseph's is just 4-3, but the Hawks have played the tougher schedule to this point. All 3 of St. Joseph's losses have come on the road, as they are a perfect 3-0 at home, where they are averaging 82 ppg and only giving up 67.3 ppg. Temple just pulled off a big upset win at Missouri and are getting way too much respect here because of it. Bet the Hawks -3.5!
Joseph D'Amico
Dec 01 '18, 7:00 PM in 8h
NCAA-B | Davidson vs NC-Wilmington
Play on: Davidson -7½ -105 at BMaker
I got you paid in college hoops LN with an EZ WINNER on Pitt. Today, I do it again as I have my NCAAB POWERHOUSE PLAY which are 1-0 TY and 84% the L4 years and my NCAAB LAS VEGAS STRIP MOVE winner which is 2-0 TY and on a 47-16 run. Get both and get paid.
Saturday's FREE NCAAB WINNER: Davidson.
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Bird Bouchard
Dec 01 '18, 7:05 PM in 8h
NHL | Blue Jackets vs Islanders
Play on: Blue Jackets -125 at Bovada
Both teams are playing exceptional hockey lately and are in the top 10 in the power rankings. Despite being on the road, the Blue Jackets are in the better position to win this game.They play much better in the neutral zone and they're working the powerplay to their advantage. Columbus is great on the road and they'll pick up another big road win here.
Pick Rating: ****
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Jack Jones
Dec 01 '18, 8:00 PM in 9h
NCAA-F | Clemson vs Pittsburgh
Play on: Pittsburgh +28 -110 at Bovada
Jack’s Free Pick Saturday: Pittsburgh +28
The Clemson Tigers don’t need style points this week. They simply need to win and get out of town and get into the four-team playoff. They won’t be looking to impress anyone Saturday when they take on the Pitt Panthers. Simply a victory would get them into the four-team playoff. That’s why they shouldn’t be laying four touchdowns here.
These Clemson lines are really starting to get out of hand. They failed to cover last week as 25.5-point favorites against South Carolina, and they also failed to cover the week before as 29.5-point favorites over Duke. Heck, South Carolina put up 35 points and 600 total yards on them last week. Pitt can hang within 28 points.
I think the betting public wants nothing to do with Pitt after its 3-24 loss to Miami last week. But that was a clear look-ahead spot for the Panthers as they had already clinched the ACC Coastal Division title and really had nothing to play for. They were simply saving up for Clemson.
More important is how Pitt played in previous weeks when they were motivated leading up to that Miami game. The Panthers went 5-1 SU and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their previous six games. Their only loss was a 14-19 loss at Notre Dame as 21-point dogs. That’s a 12-0 Notre Dame team that has clinched a spot in the four-team playoff. They also pulled outright upsets over Syracuse, Duke and Virginia, while also beating VA Tech by 30 and Wake Forest by 21 as favorites.
Remember a few years ago when Pitt was in a similar situation against Clemson. The Panthers actually upset the Tigers 43-42 as 21.5-point underdogs. Now, I’m not saying they’re going to pull the upset again, but they don’t have to for us to cash a winning ticket. They just need to stay within four touchdowns, which they are clearly capable of.
Plays against any team (Clemson) - after gaining 575 or more total yards in their previous game against an opponent that gained 3.25 or fewer yards per play in their previous game are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Dabo Swinney is 3-12 ATS as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points as the coach of Clemson. The Panthers are 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 games following a loss. Bet Pittsburgh Saturday.
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Doug Upstone
Dec 01 '18, 8:00 PM in 9h
NCAA-F | Clemson vs Pittsburgh
Play on: UNDER 53 -110
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Sal Michaels
Dec 01 '18, 8:45 PM in 10h
NCAA-F | Fresno State vs Boise State
Play on: Fresno State +2 -110
Jimmy Boyd
Dec 01 '18, 8:45 PM in 10h
NCAA-F | Fresno State vs Boise State
Play on: Boise State +1 +103
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Dustin Hawkins
Dec 01 '18, 8:45 PM in 10h
NCAA-F | Fresno State vs Boise State
Play on: Fresno State +2 -110
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Tommy Brunson
I know they can score, but can they defend enough to cover this impost that is hovering around 8 as I type my analysis?
I don't think they can.
Tom Herman showed - albeit early in October - that he knows how to defend Kyler Murray and Oklahoma just well enough to give them fits, and the Longhorns did indeed hang the lone blemish on the Sooners season report card, dumping OU, 48-45 at the Cotton Bowl back on October 6th in a game they led 45-24 entering the 4th quarter, then hung on as the +7 point underdog for the outright.
So, today we have Red River Rivalry II, only this time it will be played for the Big 12 Championship at AT&T Stadium AKA Jerry World instead of at the Cotton Bowl.
Very interested in taking the points again today with the underdog Longhorns, as they have covered in each of the last 6 series meetings - all of them in the underdog role. Tom Herman was only the head coach for 2 of those 6, but his chops when getting points are well-documented, as his Longhorns are 2-0 this season - also winning outright over TCU - in the underdog role, and 7-1 overall when installed as the underdog since arriving in Austin. You want to backtrack it further? How does 12-1 now against the spread in the underdog role since the 2015 season (while with Houston) sound?!?! Sounds pretty darn good to me, especially when you consider that the Sooner Schooner is on an 0-3-1 spread slide their last 4, and just 4-7-1 overall for the year against the spread!
Kyler Murray and his offense may rate the edge over Sam Ehlinger and the Texas offensive unit, but the fact remains the Longhorns defense gets the nod over the Sooners defense in a big way.
OU's defense is simply too leaky for me to even think about backing the Sooners in the role of a touchdown or so favorite.
Texas gets my money today in the Big 12 Title Game plus the points.
4* TEXAS
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Jack Brayman
Look who's back. Back again...
Slim shady they're not, but the Georgia Bulldogs and Alabama Crimson Tide are back on the field for another title.
Alabama and Georgia walked off the field at Mercedes-Benz Stadium almost 11 months ago - the Crimson Tide as national champs - and the Bulldogs waiting to exact revenge.
Thus, look who's back...
Inside the same venue Alabama captured the fifth national title of the Nick Saban era, I'm looking for Georgia to cause problems in the SEC Championship game. And what's crazy about this clash, is while last year's was a shock to most - the Bulldogs making it as far as they did - both teams were expected to be here in this game.
The Bulldogs - in their own right, and like Alabama - have been dominant heading to the fourth quarter, as they've enjoyred double-digit leads in 10 of their 11 wins, with the lone exception being a victory over Florida, which they led 23-14 after three quarters. Georgia has gotten things done this season with one of the nation’s best defensive backs locking it down from his corner. Deandre Baker, a Thorpe Award finalist, has just two interceptions, and none since Week 3.
That's because quarterbacks are scared to throw his way. And knowing the ego of Saban, and brash ways of Alabama, I think Tua Tagovailoa will go after Baker, throwing anywhere on the field he likes. The Bulldogs also have redshirt freshman Eric Stokes at the other cornerback, and if there were ever a game for him to mature, and make a name for himself, it's this one.
I like the Bulldogs' defense, which is ranked 12th in the country, including the 13th-best passing defense in the land. Georgia allows jusst 17.2 points per contest, which is 10th-best in the nation.
Alabama hasn't faced a team like this, since, well, the national championship in January, when the Bulldogs pushed the Tide to overtime and lost 26-23 on this same field.
Well, look who's back. Back again...
Take the Dogs!
2* GEORGIA
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Ray Chadwick
There are simply not many teams in the land that have the athletes to match up with Alabama.
After watching closely this college season, I count just two that have the talent to at least give the Crimson Tide a game. One of them is Clemson, and the other happens to be today's opponent, Georgia.
This is a rematch from last year's College Championship Game that Alabama was able to win in overtime by a 26-23 count. The Tide turned to then back-up Tua Tagovailoa to engineer an Alabama comeback win capped by a 41-yard touchdown pass in OT on the same field they will do battle on this afternoon. Remember, Alabama and Georgia did NOT play in the SEC Championship Game last year due to Auburn's upset win over 'Bama in the Iron Bowl. Georgia easily dispatched AU, 28-7 in said title game in Atlanta last December.
That was then, this is now.
Tua is a revelation. The kid has thrown 36 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions as the Tide enter a perfect 12-0 on the year. The word is regardless of the outcome tonight, Alabama is on the safe side of the 4-team playoff that will be announced after today's events are completed.
The same cannot be said for the Bulldogs who know they MUST win this game in order to advance to the playoffs for a second consecutive season.
Can they do it? Ehh, I am not bold enough for a money line play here, but getting close to 2 touchdowns definitely has my whistle whetted.
Jake Fromm is a year older this time around, and while Sony Micheal and Nick Chubb are now carrying the pigskin in the NFL, the Bulldogs are still stacked at the skills positions. Look at the names; Swift and Holyfield provide an above average 1-2 running punch, and Hardman and Ridley catching the football also provide a pair of home run options for Fromm to work with.
True, the Alabama defense is just as good, if not better than last year's title winners, but again, UGa is familiar with this team, and are not likely to blink - especially playing in nearby Atlanta.
The Tide obviously have play-makers that I must mention in Harris and Harris running it, and they also have the dangerous Jerry Juedy as a deep threat for Tua to work with. The good news for Georgia is they have a first-round future draft pick cover man in cornerback Deandre Baker to keep an eye on Juedy today.
UGa is 12-3 their last 15 against the spread on the road, and Kirby Smart has cashed the ticket in 5 of 7 as they underdog since 2016.
Conversely, the linesmakers have made it tough on Saban and his Tide when playing in big games (bowl/playoff/SEC title since 2013), as the Crimson Tide have covered just 4 of those 10 games in that situation.
I am not going to play the hero as say the 'Dawgs win this one outright, but I am going to take the near 2 TD spot and side with Georgia to cover against Alabama today at Mercedes Benz Stadium.
3* GEORGIA
Chris Jordan
My free play for Saturday is on the Clemson Tigers over the Pittsburgh Panthers, in the ACC Championship.
Clemson, which ranks seventh in the nation with its defense, counters with the third-best offense in the country. And I'm convinced the Tigers have the most balanced team in America, and this one isn't going to be close.
This one starts up front, on the defensive line, as I love to see Clemson defensive ends Clelin Ferrell and Austin Bryant and defensive tackles Christian Wilkins and Dexter Lawrence work against offensive lines. We're talking about a unit that ranks second in the country in sacks and rushing yards allowed.
Clemson is also second in the Football Bowl Subdivision with 112 tackles for loss.
That fearsome foursome will be a problem for Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett, who has thrown for just 1,825 yards, the fewest for a Pitt signal-caller who has played 10 games since 1996. The worst thing that could have happened was the Tigers giving up 510 yards passing and five touchdown throws to South Carolina quarterback Jake Bentley.
Despite the 21-point win for the Tigers, that was a wake-up call for the passing D, and I don't know if the Panthers will get 200 yards through the air. Not with the 80th-ranked offense and 119th-ranked passing offense.
I do know I'm much more impressed by Clemson's freshman quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who passed for 393 yards and a touchdown in the win over South Carolina, and is tied for the ACC lead with 22 touchdown passes. He will make a mockery of the 61st-ranked passing defense, and 71st-ranked scoring defense.
Lay the big chalk, as Clemson rolls.
3* CLEMSON