Sunday 12/2/18 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NCAAFB, NFL & NBA games.
JACK JONES
NFL | Dec 02, 2018
Panthers vs. Bucs
Jack’s Free Pick Sunday: Carolina Panthers -3
It’s safe to say the Carolina Panthers will be highly motivated for a victory Sunday. They have lost three straight since their 6-2 start and are now on the verge of missing the playoffs if they don’t get it turned around quickly. I expect a big effort from them Sunday against the Tampa Bay Bucs as a result.
The last two losses were fluky as the Panthers outgained the Lions by 78 yards but missed a two-point conversion going for the win late and lost 19-20. They also outgained the Seahawks by 79 yards but lost 27-30 on a last-second field goal after leading the entire game up to that point. They missed a potential game-winning field goal of their own as well.
The Panthers are far from broken, and they should get back on track against a Bucs team that has been broken for most of the season. The Bucs sit at 4-7 and keep playing musical chairs at quarterback. They also have a laundry list of injuries right now that is holding them back with several of their star players missing time on offense and defense. It’s just not a team I trust at all.
Carolina held a 35-7 lead on Tampa Bay a few weeks back in their first meeting before letting off the gas and coasting to a 42-28 victory. They put up 407 total yards on the Bucs in that contest and held them to just 301 total yards. They rushed for 179 yards and Christian McCaffrey is primed for another big game. This is a Carolina offense that is vastly improved this season, and one that put up 476 total yards on the Seahawks last week with 220 rushing and 256 passing.
No question the Panthers have the better defense as well as they give up 356.5 yards per game while the Bucs allow 30.7 points and 390.9 yards per game. And I think the Bucs are getting too much respect for their 27-9 win over the 49ers last week that ended a four-game skid. The 49ers can’t win without Jimmy G and were certainly distracted from the Reuben Foster news that came out Saturday night before the game.
Plays on road teams (Carolina) - after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games coming in, in December games are 38-13 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. Ron Rivera is 13-4 ATS off two or more consecutive ATS loss as the coach of the Panthers. Carolina is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games following a loss. The Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last five trips to Tampa Bay. Bet the Panthers Sunday.
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JIMMY BOYD
NFL | Dec 02, 2018
Vikings vs. Patriots
1* Free Pick on Vikings +5.5
The book says don't bet against the Patriots in December, as this team always wins, especially at home, when it matters the most. The thing is, you could be saying the same things about the Vikings, who are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games played in the month of December.
Usually by this point in the season the Patriots are on a upswing and playing well, but they haven't been that impressive. They struggled to put away a bad Jets team last week. A game they won by 14, but were tied 13-13 with 4 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter. The previous week they got owned by the Titans.
I'm not saying New England won't win this game, but I think it's asking a lot for them to cover a near touchdown spread against a team like the Vikings. Minnesota has the talent up front on defense to make Brady uncomfortable and I got no doubt Kirk Cousins and that Vikings offense will be able to move the ball against this Patriots defense. Take Minnesota!
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ALEX SMART
NFL | Dec 02, 2018
49ers vs. Seahawks
49ers+10½ -30
The 49ers have a strong defence, ranking 11th in the NFL in total defense and 10th against the run and must not be underestimated vs a team like Seattle that likes to move the chains on the ground leading the league in rushing, averaging 147.1 yards per game. Im betting the Niners ability to slow the run, will keep them in this game, and get us the cover.
NFL Road teams (SAN FRANCISCO) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in December games are 38-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.
NFL Home favorites (SEATTLE) - good rushing team (4.5 or more YPR) against a team with an average rushing defense (3.5 to 4.5 YPR), after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game are 17-45 ATS L/35 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
Play on San Francisco 49ers to cover
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DUSTIN HAWKINS
NFL | Dec 02, 2018
Jets vs. Titans
Free Play on Titans -7½ -110
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RAY MONOHAN
NFL | Dec 02, 2018
49ers vs. Seahawks
San Francisco +10
The 49ers are worth a flyer at this number.
Seattle has played well at times this season, but they aren't a team known for blowouts. They typically play to closer affairs with defenses dominating.
This is going to be another case where they will look to work the clock and slow things down. That plays into the favor of the 49ers, who are very one dimensional.
Some trends to note. 49ers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in December. Seahawks are 1-3-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Grab the points. Back San Francisco.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
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Doc’s Sports
Take #360 Houston Texans over Cleveland Browns (1p.m., Sunday, December 2 CBS)
The Browns are coming off an outstanding performance last week against Cincinnati. But that was personal since former coach Hue Jackson was on the Cincinnati staff and I just do not believe they can put forth that type of an effort again on Sunday playing their second consecutive road game. The Texans are off a short week, but I believe they will win the AFC South and could make some noise in the playoffs come January. Houston has covered the spread in 4 straight games against Cleveland. The Browns are 7-18 ATS (1 push) in their last 26 games against teams with a winning record.
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DOUG UPSTONE
NFL | Dec 02, 2018
Cardinals vs. Packers
UNDER 44
On Sunday, Play Under on December teams when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points like ARIZONA who have lost eight or more out of their last 10 games. In the last several years this situation is 32-8, 80.0 percent.
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PRO COMPUTER GAMBLER
NFL | Dec 02, 2018
Chiefs vs. Raiders
UNDER 56
NFL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:The OU is 5-18-0 (21.7%) since 2012 when you have a +8 or bigger home dog. Active on the Unders this week in Detroit and in Oakland
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MARK WILSON
NFL | Dec 02, 2018
Chiefs vs. Raiders
Free Play on Raiders +15½ -115
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CALVIN KING
NFL | Dec 02, 2018
Chargers vs. Steelers
[1%] Free Play on Chargers +3½
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DENNIS MACKLIN
NFL | Dec 02, 2018
Bills vs. Dolphins
Bills+5 -110
DMack's Free NFL Play for Sunday, December 2, 2018 is on the Buffalo Bills
The Bills can play defense and seem to have not quit which is so important in these out-of-the-money division games. Buffalo played a big game against the Jags while the Dolphins folded late to the Colts going down for the sixth time in eight games. Josh Allen is making plays with his arm and feet and the Bills are 7-3 ATS L10 in the series. Grab the five points while you can.
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JOSEPH D'AMICO
NFL | Dec 02, 2018
Browns vs. Texans
Texans-5½ -110
Sunday's NFL FREE WINNER: Houston Texans.
Game 360
While Cleveland has improved on their 1-31 record the L2 seasons, they are still not in the class of a Houston team riding an 8-game SU win streak and looking for an AFC South title and a 1st round bye in the playoffs. The Browns offense must face the NFL's 5th ranked stop-unit (20.2 PPG allowed). The big issue for Cleveland is their leaky "D". The loaded, Houston "O" has the red-hot trio of Watson, Miller, and Hopkins. That's just too many playmakers for the Browns to cover. Cleveland is 0-4 ATS the L4 meetings in this series while Houston is 4-0 ATS the L4 games vs. AFC opponents. Take the Texans. Thank you.
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MARC LAWRENCE
NFL | Dec 02, 2018
Browns vs. Texans
Browns+6
Play - Cleveland Browns (Game 359).
Edges - Browns: 4-1 ATS as a dog versus foes coming off a Monday night game… Texans: 1-5 SUATS coming off a Monday night game and facing a sub .400 opponent … With NFL favorites riding an 8-game-exact win streak just 6-17 ATS, we recommend a 1* play on Cleveland. Thank you and good luck as always.
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MIKE LUNDIN
NFL | Dec 02, 2018
Ravens vs. Falcons
Falcons-125
The Atlanta Falcons will take on the Baltimore Ravens at Mercedes-Benz Stadium Sunday afternoon, and I like the home team in this matchup.
The Ravens put a 34-17 beating on Oakland last week, but they're just 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
We can also note that Ravens' veteran QB Joe Flacco has missed the last two games with a hip injury and he's been limited at practice this week. This would be rookie QB Lamar Jackson's first road game if he gets the nod.
The Falcons will come enter this contest looking to put an end to a three-game slide. Their prolific passing attack should match up well against a Ravens D which might be among the best in the league, but it has not recorded an interception since Week 5.
I'm counting on Matt Ryan to have a big game and lead the Falcons to victory.
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LARRY NESS
NFL | Dec 02, 2018
Chiefs vs. Raiders
Chiefs-14
My free play is on the KC Chiefs at 4:05 ET.
Once upon a time, the Oakland Raiders and the Kansas City Chiefs had one of the best (and most bitter) rivalries in pro football. It began in the AFL and continued long after the AFL/NFL merger in 1970. However, as Kansas City travels to Oakland for this Week 13 contest, the Chiefs come in with a 9-2 record (off a bye week) and one of the most explosive offenses in recent history (36.7 PPG ranks 1st), the Raiders are a woeful 2-9 and are coming off a 34-17 loss at Baltimore last week. It marks the first of two meetings in a five-week span, as the teams will face off again in the regular-season finale Dec. 30 in Kansas City. This will be the 116th regular-season meeting between these two teams and the Chiefs have won 19 of their last 20 games against AFC West opponents. The lone setback came last year at Oakland, when the Raiders won 31-30).
Kansas City last played in Week 11's wild MNF game, a 54-51 loss at the Los Angeles Rams (it snapped the Chiefs’ four-game winning streak). Kansas City boasts one of the NFL’s most exciting offenses thanks to second-year QG Patrick Mahomes, who has passed for 3,628 yards, leads the NFL in TD passes (37) and ranks second with a 117.9 quarterback rating. Major 'weapons' also include RB Kareem Hunt (834 RY/328 rec yards / 14 combined TDs) and WR Tyreek Hill (65 catches and 11 TDs), who had a career-high 215 receiving yards against the Rams. However, Hunt won't play after being put on the commissioner's exempt list for a serious off-the-field incident. Kansas City’s offense HAS to be good, because its defense ranks 30th in total yards (414.7 per) and 28th in scoring (26.7 PPG).
The Raiders snapped a five-game losing streak with a 23-21 win at Arizona in Week 11 but the Raiders returned to their losing ways in Week 12, falling 34-17 at Baltimore. The Raiders’ offense sputtered in loss and has been abysmal of late, averaging only 279.1 YPG in the last seven contests. QB David Carr has been sacked 35 times behind a makeshift offensive line. Carr has not topped 300 yards passing since Week 4 against Cleveland and hasn’t surpassed 250 yards since Week 5. The defense ranks 30th in scoring (29.7 PPG) and has been particularly awful against the run, ranking last in the league (151.4 YPG), allowing 140 rushing yards or more eight times in 11 games and 200 or more three times.
Andy Reid’s teams are 16-3 SU in games following a bye and although the Chiefs are a heavy favorite, I'll still lay the points. To put it mildly, Oakland has struggled in the first season of coach Jon Gruden’s comeback and a quick turnaround is not in sight. "I know what we're in for," Raiders head coach Jon Gruden said. "I know what (Chiefs head coach Andy Reid's) record is. I know what the Chiefs are right now. I know what they're capable of doing. I know what the point spread is. I know a lot about what I see on tape." Gruden added, "And oh, by the way, the quarterback might be the most dynamic player to enter the NFL in history." I feel your pain Jon.
Good luck...Larry
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ASA
PLAY ON Atlanta -1 over Baltimore, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET
This is Atlanta’s last stand. They are much better than their 4-7 record, however a loss here all but eliminates them from any playoff consideration. Despite their 4 wins, the Falcons have a plus YPG differential and a plus YPP differential. QB Matt Ryan is having a great year with 24 TD’s and just 5 interceptions and he ranks 7th in the NFL in QBR. They’ve had a few extra days to prepare for this game after losing @ New Orleans on Thanksgiving. Atlanta actually outgained the Saints in that game but 4 costly turnovers helped hand New Orleans the win. Those turnovers were key in keeping points off the board for Atlanta as they fumbled at the Saints 2-yard line and 30-yard line. They also contributed to adding points to the scoreboard for New Orleans as one of their four giveaways was at their own 22-yard line which turned into a Saints TD. Baltimore has won 2 straight games with Lamar Jackson at QB but those were both at home and came against Cincinnati (Bengals have now lost 5 of their last 6 games) and Oakland (who has 2 wins the entire season). This will be Jackson’s first ever road start against a much better team than the two he just faced. The Ravens are just 2-3 on the road this year and that was with the veteran Joe Flacco at QB. Atlanta’s overall defensive numbers are poor but they’ve played much better as of late. Last week they held the most potent offense in the NFL (Saints) to just 312 total yards. A week earlier they held Dallas to only 320 yards. They face an offense here with very little passing game as Lamar Jackson has passed for 134 & 178 yards in his 2 starts. Atlanta has had extra time to prepare for the Ravens new running game with Jackson under center and we expect them to play well. We’ll call for Atlanta to win at home in this one.
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EXECUTIVE SPORTS
Event: (351) Indianapolis Colts at (352) Jacksonville Jaguars
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: December 2, 2018 1PM EST
Play: Total Under 48.0 (-108)
Play Under Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (JACKSONVILLE) after having lost 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games, in the second half of the season.
(43-16, 73% over the last 5 seasons.) The situation's record this season is: (4-1). Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (20-9).
UNDER 48 INDY/JAX
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TEDDY COVERS
Event: (363) Chicago Bears at (364) New York Giants
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: December 2, 2018 1PM EST
Play: Chicago Bears -3.5 (+102)
3% Take the Chicago Bears (#363)
This is a complete mismatch just waiting for kickoff. The Giants weak offensive line and their ancient, turnover prone QB have to take on Vic Fangio’s defense that leads the NFL in interceptions AND forced fumbles. I’m not convinced that New York is going to bring max effort here, a last place team coming off a soul crushing blown 16 point lead loss to their divisional rival. It’s surely worth noting that the G-men are just 2-13-1 in their last 16 tries following an ATS victory like the one they had last week, including an 0-3-1 ATS mark in that role in 2018. Meanwhile, the Bears have been an UNDER-valued commodity of late, cashing winning bets in each of their last five ballgames. In Chase Daniel we trust! Take the Bears.
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BRYAN LEONARD
Event: (365) Denver Broncos at (366) Cincinnati Bengals
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: December 2, 2018 1PM EST
Play: Total Over 44.0 (-110)
365 Denver at Cincinnati
The Broncos should move the ball well against one of the worst defenses in the league. This is a team playing with confidence after facing the Steelers and Chargers coming out of the bye. With Cincinnati, San Francisco, Cleveland and Oakland on deck, this is a team that isn’t out of the playoff hunt.
Very short total here considering the Bengals are finally healthy at the receiver spot. Word out of Cincinnati is that the players are excited to get a good look at Driscoll behind center. The talk in camp is that the team doesn’t expect and offensive drop-off. This line expects the Bengals to really struggle offensively, we disagree.
PLAY OVER
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Mike Wynn
Free Play: Free Indianapolis/Jacksonville Under 47 Points
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Totals4U
Early Sunday's Free Selection: Arizona Cardinals/Green Bay Packers under 42 1/2
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Atlantic Sports
Early Sunday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Missouri Tigers + 2 (CBB)
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#1 Sports
Early Sunday's Free Selection: Arizona Wildcats - 1
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Platinum Plays
Free Pick: the Indianapolis Colts -4 over Jacksonville
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Hawkeye Sports
Early Sunday's Free Pick: Arizona Cardinals + 13
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High Stakes Syndicate
Free Selection for Early Sunday: Delaware Blue Hens pick 'em
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John Anthony Sports
Early Sunday's Free Selection: Denver Broncos - 5
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SAL MICHAELS
NFL | Dec 02, 2018
49ers vs. Seahawks
Free Play on Seahawks -10 +100
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BOBBY CONN
NFL | Dec 02, 2018
Jets vs. Titans
1* Free Play on Titans -8 -110
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BRODY VAUGHN
NFL | Dec 02, 2018
Broncos vs. Bengals
Bengals+5½
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CHIP CHIRIMBES
Chicago at New York Giants 1:00 ET
Giants (+) over Bears
Wow, what a matchup, YA Tittle and Frank Gifford up against the Midway Maulers...ah football I love it...even in today's age. (What you should love his Chip's NFL slate) But now New York's version has a Manning, a Barkley and I dare say a Beckham Jr. while the Bears have a Mack. Mirror records with Chicago at 8-3 and New York at 3-8 with the Bears 3-2 ATS and SU on the road and the Gants 1-4 SU and 0-4-1 ATS. I look for the Giants to get their first home 'cover' as they have been playing better of late and should have won last week against the Eagles. Take NEW YORK!
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ROB VINCILETTI
NBA | Dec 02, 2018
Blazers vs. Spurs
Blazers+1
The NBA Comp Play is on Portland at 7:00 eastern. The Blazers are off a home loss to Denver and should bounce back here. They already whipped the Spurs this season and now they fit a solid 8% system that pertains to road teams that are off a home spread loss vs a team like the Spurs off a home dog loss by 10 or more. The Spurs have failed to cover 6 of 7 with 1 day of rest and the last 5 times after allowing 125 or more. Look for the Blazers to win this one.
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PURE LOCK
NFL | Dec 02, 2018
Bears vs. Giants
Pure Lock's FREE NFL play Sunday 12-2-18
Chicago -3 1/2
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Jim Feist
Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Sunday, December 2, 2018
NFL (363) CHICAGO BEARS VS (364) NEW YORK GIANTS
Take: (363) CHICAGO BEARS
Reason: Your free play for Sunday, December 2, 2018 is in the NFL Scheduled contest between the Chicago Bears and the New York Giants. Your free play is on the Bears.
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Razor Sharp
YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR EARLY SUNDAY: DENVER/CINCINNATI OVER the total of 45
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Roz Wins
Roz's Sunday, December 2, 2018, Free Pick
(353) LOS ANGELES CHARGERS VS (354) PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Take : Steelers
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Sharp Bettor
SharpBettor FREE Play for Sunday, December 2, 2018
(363) CHICAGO BEARS VS (364) NEW YORK GIANTS
Take : Bears
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Nevada Sharpshooter
Your free winner for Sunday: Take NY JETS/TENNESSEE OVER the total of 40½
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Golden Dragon
FREE WINNER for Sunday
Indianapolis -4
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Huddle Up Sports
Free Play: Arizona +14
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Arthur Ralph
FREE play SUN: NFL Tennessee-8
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Vegas Steam Line
Your free winner for Sunday: Take MINNESOTA/NEW ENGLAND UNDER the total of 49½
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Kenny Towers
FREE PLAY FOR SUNDAY - INDIANAPOLIS/JACKSONVILLE OVER 47
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CAPPERS ACCESS
(NFL)
Packers
Bears
Vikings
Chargers
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BIG AL
Our complimentary selection for Sunday, December 2 is:
Columbia PK over Delaware.
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TOMMY BRUNSON
The Bills head to Miami for their first game of the season against the Dolphins, and somehow Buffalo comes to the Sunshine State with 3 straight Overs on their schedule.
The Dolphins welcomed Ryan Tannehill back last week at Indianapolis, and while that game did play Over the total, Miami had played Under the total in their previous pair.
I am NOT expecting this meeting to head north of the total, as I think today's meeting at Hard Rock Stadium will not see much more that 35 combined points.
The Bills have played 4 of their last 5 road games this season Under the posted price, while the Dolphins will be playing at home for the first time since November 4th when they combined with the Jets for a grand total of 19 combined points.
Last year's meeting in Miami did hold Under the total.
Josh Allen made some nice throws and runs last week at home against Jacksonville, let's see if he can repeat last week's effort today on the road. I am not counting on that.
Minimal points today, as the Bills and 'Fins land Under for Week Thirteen.
4* BUFFALO-MIAMI UNDER
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GUS AUGUSTINE
Comp winner for Sunday will be to back the Patriots as the home favorite over the Vikings.
This will be the only home game in a 4 week stretch for New England, as the Pats did win and cover a double-digit impost at the New York Jets last weekend, and will have road games at Miami and at Pittsburgh over the next 2 weeks. The win over the Jets was of note, as New England has not lost this season when BOTH Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski at in the lineup.
Minnesota did well to beat back their arch-rival Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers last Sunday night, but this is a tough road spot for the Vikings who did lose their last away game both straight up and against the spread in Chicago the game prior.
Take a look at the calendar, it now reads December, and this is the month that the Patriots traditionally put their foot on the gas pedal. New England is both 8-1 both straight up and against the spread their last 9 in the month of December, and the average margin of victory stands at 17.3 points!
Sony Michel has emerged as a reliable threat on the ground, and former Viking Codarelle Patterson has become a key piece to the Patriots offensive attack - something he was NOT while with Minny.
Vikings give the Patriots a game for about 3 quarters, but at the end of the day this is still Kirk Cousins opposing GOAT Tom Brady.
Lay it with New England as that December mark improves for the Patriots to 9-1 both straight up and against the spread their last 10 in the last month of the year.
3* NEW ENGLAND
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Priority Sports Info
Roy Maddux
#706 Philadelphia 76ers
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HUNTER PRICE
NCAA-B | Dec 02, 2018
UC Riverside vs. Valparaiso
1* Free Pick on Valparaiso -15 -105
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INFO PLAYS
NCAA-B | Dec 02, 2018
Loyola Marymount vs. UCLA
1* Free Play on UCLA -10 -110
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STEVE JANUS
NCAA-B | Dec 02, 2018
UC Riverside vs. Valparaiso
1* Free Sharp Play on Valparaiso -15 -105
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OSKEIM SPORTS
Event: (713) Arizona at (714) Connecticut
Sport/League: CBB
Date/Time: December 2, 2018 1PM EST
Play: Connecticut 2.0 (-114)
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DWAYNE BRYANT
Event: (365) Denver Broncos at (366) Cincinnati Bengals
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: December 2, 2018 1PM EST
Play: Cincinnati Bengals 4.5 (-108)
The Bengals are definitely worth a shot as a home dog of more than a FG against Denver. Sure, Andy Dalton won't be under center. But stud WR A.J. Green will be back, which is a huge help to QB Jeff Driskel. The Broncos' porous run defense allows 4.7 yards per carry, so Joe Mixon and company should find success. That opens things up for Driskel, Green, and the Bengals passing game. Denver's stock has never been higher this season after upsetting the Chargers in LA, then beating the Steelers in Denver. The Bengals' stock has never been lower this season after losing three straight (the last of which was a 15-point loss to the Browns at home) and their starting QB. That makes this the perfect time to buy low on the Bengals and sell high on the Broncos. The home dog is barking loudly in this one. Grab the points with CINCINNATI.
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Jeff Allen
Sunday's Free Selection is on the Colorado Avalanche
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BEN BURNS
NFL | Dec 02, 2018
Panthers vs. Bucs
OVER 53
Both these teams have been involved in some very high-scoring games of late. Carolina's last five games have had combined scores of 57, 39, 83, 70 and 57. The "70" game was against these same Bucs, a 42-28 affair on 11/4. Including that result, three of Tampa's last five games have produced a minimum of 70. This one should also see plenty of points. Consider the Over.
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RAY CHADWICK
The Chargers catch a major weather break tonight at Heinz Field, as the temps will feel downright balmy for this time of year in the Steel City.
That nice weather should be of benefit to BOTH teams quarterbacks tonight, as I fully expect Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger to give us a treat with their passes and specifically their touchdown passes!
Rivers just torched the Arizona Cardinals, as the Bolts posted 45 points to snap a string of 4 straight Unders. On the road this year (not counting their London showing) the Chargers have played Overs in 3 of their 5 games.
The Steelers have played Low in their last pair and 3 of their last 4, but all of the lower-scoring games have come on the road. At home Pittsburgh is a different beast, as they have played 3 straight and 4 of 5 this season Over the posted price. At home this season, the Steelers are averaging 35.4 points per game.
Both Rivers and Roethlisberger are high-risk, high-reward type passes, and Ben's key pick last weekend was a game ender in a loss at Denver.
Plenty of TD passes, and a pick or two tonight sprinkled in?
That's a recipe for a Sunday night Over in my book.
3* L.A. CHARGERS-PITTSBURGH OVER
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JACK BRAYMAN
The Chicago Bears, with that ferocious defense, head into Jersey to battle the New York Giants, and I don't see Eli Manning and the crew being much of a challenge.
Chicago, with the fourth-ranked stop unit in the league, will stifle New York's offense, which, despite rookie running back Saquon Barkley's impressive debut, has looked lethargic. The Giants have the fourth-worst rushing defense. Barkley's strength is coming out of the backfield and be a dual threat to help Manning.
But the Bears' defense is too good for that.
The NFC North-leading Bears have won five in a row on the strength of their swarming defense that ranks second against the rush and 10th against the pass. Chicago, which leads the NFL with fewest first-half points allowed (64), wears teams down in the first two quarters while getting what they need with a blue-collar offense. During the win streak, the Bears have allowed an average of 15.4 points per game.
Chase Daniel looked good in his start against the Lions, going 27 for 37 for 230 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. He can keep the Bears moving, especially if the turnovers the defense can create come in New York territory. Chicago, which ranks fourth in the NFL with 34 sacks, leads the league with 20 interceptions and is tied for the lead with 16 forced fumbles.
Khalil Mack has been a beast for the Bears, as he comes in with an impressive highway stat sheet. Mack - who had a sack, forced fumble and recovery against the Giants last season, while playing for Oakland - has three sacks, two forced fumbles and a 27-yard interception return for touchdown in his last four on the road. And safety Eddie Jackson has three touchdowns in his last four outings, including interception returns in his last two.
Too much balance, with a dominant defense. The Bears roll to the win and cover. And as I will always tell you with favorites laying anywhere between -3 and -4.5, I want you buying the half point down.
3* BEARS
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SCOTT DELANEY
All week I was looking at the Kansas City Chiefs as my free winner, as they head to Oakland to face the tanking Raiders, who are battling the San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals for the No. 1 draft pick. But anyone paying attention the past few weeks has seen the Raiders play competitively. Particularly on offense.
So, with the Chiefs coming to Oaktown with the third-worst defense in the league, and the Raiders countering with the seventh-worst, I think we're in store for an entertaining AFC West shootout.
Kansas City has had a week to let it sink in that it became the first team to lose a game when scoring 50 or more points, when it fell to the Rams, 54-51. The Chiefs have scored 30 or more points in nine of 11 games this season. Oakland did put a 45-spot on the Browns earliers this season, and threw 28 up in a loss to Indianapolis. Both were at home.
This is a rivalry game, and don't be surprised to see the Raiders open the scoring. Oakland ranks fifth in the league with 34 points on opening drives. And quarterback Derek Carr has gone six straight games without throwing a pick. I expect the Raiders to come out firing as if they're challenging the Chiefs for the division.
Kansas City will rely on quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who threw six touchdown passes in the loss to the Rams. The Chiefs lead the NFL with 7.05 yards per play, and won't have any trouble moving the ball and putting up points against Oakland.
Besides, we all know Kansas City coach Andy Reid's teams are 16-3 when coming off a bye week. The Chiefs and Raiders are about to have some fun.
Play this one high.
5* OVER Chiefs-Raiders
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