Wednesday 12/12/18 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for Wednesday’s NCAAFB, NFL & NBA games.
Bobby Conn
Dec 12 '18, 7:00 PM in 9h
NCAA-B | Massachusetts vs Temple
Play on: Massachusetts +9 -107
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Brad Diamond
Dec 12 '18, 10:00 PM in 12h
NCAA-B | San Diego vs Oregon
Play on: San Diego +10½ -110 at BMaker
SAN DIEGO+ over Oregon
San Diego (8-2) has had to face a number of quality teams in the early going,
so they should not be shaken by a road game in Oregon. On the other hand,
the Ducks (5-3) are going to be difficult as they are an effective defensive
unit (#2 FG%), have been tough on the opposing arc builders with the #23
rated defense disallowing the three ball (27.8%) consistently. With the road
scenario for San Diego, we do expect a SU win for Oregon. On the technical
we have SD 4-1 ATS vs. the Pac-12 and 9-4 ATS vs. >.600 units. Oregon comes in
0-4 ATS Wednesdays, and 1-6-1 ATS off a SU win. TAKE THE POINTS!
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Mike Wynn
Free Play: Free Georgia St -18½ Over Tenn-Chattanooga
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Razor Sharp
YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR WEDNESDAY: DALLAS/ATLANTA OVER the total of 223
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Totals4U
Wednesday's Free Selection: Portland/Memphis under 205 1/2
Jeff Allen
Wednesday's Free Selection is on the Calgary Flames
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Atlantic Sports
Wednesday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Louisville - 11
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#1 Sports
Wednesday's Free Selection: Utah Jazz - 6 1/2
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Platinum Plays
Free Pick: the Massachusetts Minutemen +9 over Temple
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Jim Feist
Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Wednesday, December 12, 2018
12/12 05:05 PM PT / 8:05 PM ET
NBA (547) PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS VS (548) MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
Take: (548) MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
Roz Wins
Roz's Wednesday, December 12, 2018, Free Pick
12/12 05:05 PM NBA (547) PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS VS (548) MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
Take : Grizzlies
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Sharp Bettor
SharpBettor FREE Play for Wednesday, December 12, 2018
12/12 07:00 PM CB (707) SAN DIEGO VS (708) OREGON
Take : San Diego U
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Nevada Sharpshooter
Your free winner for Wednesday: Take PORTLAND/MEMPHIS OVER the total of 205½
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Golden Dragon
FREE WINNER for Wednesday
Boston College -16
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Hawkeye Sports
Wednesday's Free Pick: Utah Jazz - 7
Huddle Up Sports
Free Play: Minnesota -2
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Arthur Ralph
FREE play WED: Memphis NBA -3
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Vegas Steam Line
Your free winner for Wednesday: Take OKLAHOMA CITY/NEW ORLEANS OVER the total of 232
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High Stakes Syndicate
Free Selection for Wednesday: Murray State Racers + 3
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Kenny Towers
FREE PLAY FOR WEDNESDAY - MIAMI/UTAH OVER 209
Anthony Sports
Wednesday's Free Selection: Washington Wizards + 3 1/2
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Tommy Brunson
Wednesday comp play will be to play the Nets and the 76ers to hold just Under this big total the oddsmakers have placed on their meeting in the City of Brotherly Love.
Brooklyn and Philadelphia did play to an Over in their meeting at the Barclays Center on November 25th, but since that time, the Nets have gone 5-2 Under the total, including playing their last pair of games in the Under column.
Philly since that time has played 5 of 6 Under the posted price, including their Monday home date with Detroit their last time out.
Series numbers show 2 of the last 3 played between the teams having held Under the total, and the overall Under run is 13-5-2 the last 20 times the teams have faced one another, with the Under standing at 6-2-1 over the last 9 games played in Philadelphia.
Big total here, and the numbers point towards it staying Under.
2* BROOKLYN-PHILADELPHIA UNDER
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Jack Brayman
My free winner is on the New York Islanders over the Vegas Golden Knights, as I think the home underdog number is pure value.
The defending Western Conference champs have struggled on the road this season, and happen to face the mastermind who figured out how to clog the neutral zone and beat the fast-pace Golden Knights in the Stanley Cup Final.
Islanders coach Barry Trotz led the Washington Capitals to their first title by dominating the Knights between the blue lines, where they usually caught steam and moved into the attacking zone full speed ahead.
By implementing that style, and keeping the pressure on Marc-Andre Fleury, who hasn't had a game off since Nov. 19 and will play in his 11th straight game, will be essential for the Islanders.
And make note, last season the Islanders went 2-0-0 against the Golden Knights in their inaugural season, out-scoring Vegas 7-4 in the series. The Islanders were one of two teams to sweep their season series against the Knights.
Take the home underdog tonight.
3* ISLANDERS
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Chris Jordan
If it ain't broke, don't fix it. Thus, I'm looking for my NHL Winner # 6 of 7 in the free pick department.
Two nights back it was the San Jose Sharks Puck Line, last night it was the defending Stanley Cup champion Washington Capitals on the Puck Line against the Detroit Red Wings, and tonight it'll be the Calgary Flames Puck Line over the Philadelphia Flyers.
I'm going to say this one could easily start with the home-ice edge and special teams.
Calgary, which is 19-10-2 this season, is a sterling 10-3-2 at home. And while it owns the fifth-best home power play, the Flyers come into Calgary with the second-worst road penalty kill and worst overall penalty kill. Philadelphia also stinks with a man advantage, as it ranks 29th overall with the extra skater, and 27th on the road.
The Flames, who have the third-most goals scored at home with 63, will be led by Johnny Gaudreau, who has 23 of his 39 points on home ice this season, scoring six goals and 17 assists at the Saddledome. Also, there is Matthew Tkachuk, who is tied with Gaudreau, with 23 points at home as well scoring nine goals and 14 assists. That’s 23 of his 33 points at home.
Calgary will be too much for Philly. Lay the Puck Line.
4* FLAMES PUCK LINE
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Jimmy Boyd
Dec 12 '18, 7:05 PM in 3h
NBA | Celtics vs Wizards
Play on: Wizards +4 -109 at GTBets
1* Free NBA Pick on Washington Wizards +4
The Celtics have had a difficult time coming away with a win when they visit Capital One Arena. Boston has just one win in their last 7 trips to face Washington and I like the Wizards to add to their struggles with a win tonight.
This is a big bounce back spot for Washington after dropping back-to-back road games to finish up their short 4-game road trip. The Wizards didn't have John Wall for their last game, but he's expected back and it's the Celtics that figure to be short-handed. Gordon Hayward, Al Horford and Aron Baynes are all listed as questionable.
Washington is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a winning road record, while the Celtics are a mere 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games vs a team with a winning home record.
Adding to this is a strong system in play favoring the Wizards. Underdogs off back-to-back road losses are 70-32 (69%) ATS in the month of December going back over the last 5 seasons. Take Washington!
Jack Jones
Dec 12 '18, 8:05 PM in 4h
NBA | Thunder vs Pelicans
Play on: Thunder -2 -105 at pinnacle
Jack’s Free Pick Wednesday: Oklahoma City Thunder -2
The Oklahoma City Thunder are playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now. They opened the season 0-4, but that was largely due to Russell Westbrook sitting the start of the season. They have gone an impressive 17-4 since and are now just 2-point favorites over the New Orleans Pelicans tonight.
The Pelicans are just 4-8 SU & 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Injuries have taken their toll on this team as Anthony Davis just can’t seem to stay healthy, and neither can important players around him. Two starters in Elfrid Payton and Nikola Mirotic are both out, and E’Twaun Moore is questionable.
This Pelicans team just doesn’t have enough talent outside Davis and Jrue Holiday to be able to afford playing this short-handed. And making matters worse is that this is a tired team right now. The Pelicans will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 7th game in 11 days tonight. Meanwhile, the Thunder will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.
New Orleans is 1-9 ATS off a road loss this season. The Pelicans are 0-8 ATS after playing two consecutive road games this season. The Thunder are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games overall. Oklahoma City is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 trips to New Orleans. Bet the Thunder Wednesday.
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Ben Burns
Dec 12 '18, 8:05 PM in 4h
NBA | Blazers vs Grizzlies
Play on: OVER 204½ -107
Yesterday, Ben Burns provided an easy complimentary winner with the Spurs, while going 5-2 with his premium selections. Enjoying ANOTHER WINNING YEAR, Burns is determined to close it out in style, as per usual. He's 8-4 on the week & 114-70 (+$27K) the L6 weeks. Here, he looks at tonight's Portland/Memphis total.
This is the lowest O/U line on the board and I believe that its likely to prove too low. I came up short with the Blazers 'over' the number last night. It was close - and very possibly would have finished above the total if not for a pair of key free throw misses with just over a minute left, by CJ McCollum, an 83% free throw shooter. Either way, tonight's number is considerably lower.
The Grizzlies are known as a defensive team. While thats mostly true, they've still allowed nine of their last 10 opponents to reach triple-digits in scoring. The last time that the Blazers played the second of b2b games, they allowed 143 points. The last two meetings between these teams have both produced 211 combined points. Consider the Over.
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Dave Price
Dec 12 '18, 8:35 PM in 4h
NBA | Hawks vs Mavs
Play on: Mavs -9 -109 at GTBets
Dave’s Wednesday Free Play:
1* on Dallas Mavericks -9
The Key: The Mavericks are a perfect 10-0 SU & 10-0 ATS in their last 10 home games with 6 of those wins coming by 9 points or more. And they have played a rough home schedule during this stretch with wins over OKC, Utah, Golden State, Boston, LAC, Portland and Houston. I expect them to be able to beat the lowly Atlanta Hawks by double-digits tonight. The Hawks are 2-11 on the road this year and losing by 11.8 PPG. Take Dallas.
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Sal Michaels
Dec 12 '18, 9:00 PM in 5h
NCAA-B | Portland State vs BYU
Play on: Portland State +16½ -109
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Mike Williams
Dec 12 '18, 9:00 PM in 5h
NCAA-B | Portland State vs BYU
Play on: Portland State +16½ -109
Brandon Lee
Dec 12 '18, 9:00 PM in 5h
NCAA-B | LSU vs Houston
Play on: Houston -3 -109 at GTBets
10* FREE NCAAB PICK (Houston -3)
The line move here has me a bit concerned, but I just can't pass up the Cougars as a small 3-point home favorite. Houston has started out 8-0, including a 6-0 record at home, but all the talk right now is about when the Cougars' perfect start will come to an end. It seems like a lot of people think LSU is going to hand them a loss tonight, but I just don't see it happening. I know you can't read too much into common opponents, but it's hard to ignore the fact that Houston just won by double-digits at Oklahoma State, who beat LSU on a neutral court by 13. One thing that really stands out to me is how much better the Cougars defense was against the Cowboys. Houston held Oklahoma State to just 35.1% shooting on their home court and the Tigers let the Cowboys hit on 58.5% of their shots. Houston might not be a Power 5 program, but they got a Power 5 head coach in Kelvin Sampson. Give me the Cougars -3!
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Will Rogers
Dec 12 '18, 10:00 PM in 6h
NCAA-B | San Diego vs Oregon
Play on: Oregon -9½ -107 at pinnacle
The set-up: The Toreros are no joke, entering with an 8-2 record. The hungry Ducks are 5-3 and they’ll be eager for a win here as well. San Diego’s early numbers are skewed due to the level of the competition, most recently coming in off an 82-68 home win over CS Northridge. Oregon on the other hand will look to build off an 84-61 home win over Nebraska Omaha. Overall San Diego averages 77.8 PPG and it allows 65, while Oregon averages 78 PPG and it allows 66.7.
The pick: This is a difficult non-conference road venue and note that the Toreros are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 after having won three of their last four games straight-up. I’m banking on the step up in competition to be too much for the Toreros to handle tonight. Consider Oregon.
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John Martin
Dec 12 '18, 10:35 PM in 6h
NBA | Raptors vs Warriors
Play on: Warriors -7 -105 at pinnacle
1 Unit FREE PLAY on Golden State Warriors -7
The Warriors are finally at full strength for the first time all season. Draymond Green and Steph Curry are back from injury, and this is going to be a dangerous team moving forward. They have won four straight while going 3-1 ATS as well with their only non-cover coming on a last-second bucket by the Timberwolves to lose by 8 as 9.5-point dogs. The other three wins all came by double-digits on the road, including a 10-point win at Milwaukee. And the Warriors should be able to handle the Raptors tonight, who could be without Kawhi Leonard. It’s also a Raptors team playing for a second consecutive day and playing their 3rd game in 4 days. They haven’t had two days off in a row in nearly a month. So it’s no wonder they are faltering of late, going 2-5 ATS in their last seven games with three outright losses as favorites. Give me the Warriors.
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