Tuesday 1/21/20 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NFL, NCAAB, & NBA games.
John Bollman
BOSTON -148
VEGAS @ BOSTON | 1/21 | 7:00 PM EST
9:40 AM
The Bruins are just 4-3-3 in their last 10 games but they are 16-2-9 at home this season. The Golden Knights are just 5-4-1 in their last 10 games but they are 11-9-4 on the road. They just fired their head coach and they are going through a bit of a transition phase right now. Tuuka Rask is still out with a concussion but Jaroslav Halak has been reliable with a 2.62 GAA and .918 save percentage this season. The Bruins have already beat the Knights in Vegas this season and they are 4-1 all time against the Knights. Take the Bruins at home.
19-5 IN LAST 24 NHL PICKS | +1315
3-2 IN LAST 5 LV ML PICKS | +96
5-4 IN LAST 9 BOS ML PICKS | +79
OVER 5.5
FLORIDA @ CHICAGO | 1/21 | 8:30 PM EST
9:39 AM
The Panthers are 29-16 with the over this season and they have scored four goals in six of their last seven games including a 5-4 game last night. The Panthers will be starting their backup goalie who has a 3.35 GAA and .888 save percentage. The Panthers lead the league in goals scored per game at 3.67 and they are 11th in goals against per game on the road at 3.41. The Hawks are dead last in home power play effectiveness but the Panthers have the 23rd best road penalty kill. Get this over at 5.5 before it goes up.
19-5 IN LAST 24 NHL PICKS | +1315
3-0 IN LAST 3 CHI O/U PICKS | +300
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TONY FINN BASKETBALL PLAYS
BIG TICKET: ESPN GAME of the MONTH
Game: (603) Kansas State at (604) Kansas
Date/Time: Jan 21 2020 7:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Kansas -15.0 (-110)
PLAY: Kansas Jayhawks -15 (good to -19)
5% confidence rating (603) Kansas State at (604) Kansas
There are as many as 10 different spots in the College Basketball season in which I make adjustments to the power rankings of the 353 Division I schools/teams. And note that I have different criteria for the Power 6 and Mid-Majors that I use for my official and documented releases. Recently I did my fourth power ranking/rating update and there was a shakeup to the Top 100. That shakeup was primarily the discrepancy from the Top 20 teams that fill those ranked slots to the Bottom-20 of my Top-100. It’s important for me to note that the team's within the Top-100 remained 90 percent intact with some moving up and some moving down, be because of that team's remaining schedule, past performance and/or injury, or all of the aforementioned. It is also at this time of the year when I make three power ratings in total. There is a cream soda list which essentially, in terms simple enough I don't have to write a novel outlining the convoluted formula that essentially is C in the A+B Oesterie-Masser conjecture numbers theory. Back to the point of the trio of team ratings. I also assign a number to teams when playing teams within their conference and one outside of the conference during the typical conference schedule (January through conference tournaments). The two mentioned in this paragraph have been more time consuming to assemble and at times propagate to the group I work with on these, what some would call abstracts because a number of the conferences I cover now begin competing inside of their conference as early as November. My Intel source that covers the Big 12, in particular, the schools in the northern portion of the conference has issued me a weekly breakdown of those five and it is not an exaggeration to state he has been spot-on with the criteria I ask for pertaining to a number of particulars. I will have a team breakdown added to this game analysis in the next few hours. But for now, I believed it important to get the game, the teams, a couple of notes on what each club faces and offer you, the WagerTalk faithful, the opportunity to get the best number, which figures to be early Tuesday morning. The current number of 15 isn't likely to get any better. Not in Vegas, with your local or at a large number of offshore shops. This Big 12 play that includes the public Kansas Jayhawks in combination with laying what I typically call wood (a big number, or greater than 10) or 15 points, is in my orbit a double-negative. I am recommending that you back a public team vs. a non-public squad in combination with a handicap that requires we start the game two touchdowns-plus behind the eight-ball. However, this double negative is a true-blue dub-neg; a positive statement in which two negative elements are used to produce a positive force. The why in the rarity of this play is three-fold. First, as Finn client, you will be found fading public elements five times more than backing them. Second, it doesn't take a large number of variables to make a public team, a public target, by a number of forces, that would never be accused of the things they can be accused of in this situation. Bill Self would never be ridiculed for putting a combination of the second and third rotation in the game with five minutes left in the second stanza affording those that supported the dog (Kansas State) in this contest a backdoor cover. A poorly called game by an official that leans to the visiting team that is not just an underdog but a large one, e.g. the Kansas State Wildcats. When a team, in league play, is receiving 15-points or more there is a reason. In this situation it isn't just because the Hawks are at the Phog and are the public team... it is because this Kansas State team is not equipped to defeat KU in Phog Allen Fieldhouse. My adjusted numbers for this contest, which is my chart with power ratings inside of conference play has the Jayhawks 23 points better, or my number in this game should be Kansas -23. The root power ratings I have for this game has the Jayhawks as 26 point favorites. When my number is off the oddsmakers number, or game day handicap as far as this one is, I do two things. First I investigate seeking something I missed. This could be an injury or a player returning from injury. This could be a travel switch or delay. It can be a situation with the coaching staff.. etc. There is not a virus or deflecting factor in this game that make this anything but a big play. I will complete this game analysis with a matchup break down in the next few hours. You can either check back or read my work in the email that will accompany the update.
KANSAS JAYHAWKS -15
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From Northcoast group of handicappers:
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Red Dog Sports
NCAA BK
3* #602 Villanova -4
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Elite Sports Picks (Yesterday 1-0, Last 41 Picks 19-22)
Maryland -7.5
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Inside Sports Report (Yesterday 1-1, Last 119 Picks 52-67)
Bowling Green -8
Texas A&M +8.5
New Mexico -11
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National Sports Service (Yesterday 1-1, Last 107 Picks 57-50)
4* Air Force +12.5
3* Kansas -14.5
3* Nebraska +15
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Top Rank Sports Picks (Yesterday 1-1, Last 28 Picks 12-16)
4* Air Force +12.5
3* Miami FL +17.5
3* New Mexico -11
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Goodfella
3* Florida +3
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SHARP TOTALS CLUB
3* Eastern Michigan/Bowling Green Over 133
2* Nebraska/Wisconsin Under 131
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Bezobets
NCAA Basketball: Duke -18.5 @ 1.893/-112 (3 Units)
NCAA Basketball: Illinois +6 @ 1.909/-110 (3 Units)
NCAA Basketball: TCU +1.5 1st Half @ 1.952/-105 (3 Units)
NCAA Basketball: Wisconsin -15.5 @ 1.893/-112 (2 Units)
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Nick Vegano NHL 1/21
Blackhawks/Panthers OVER 6 -105
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KEN THOMSON | CBB SIDES TUE, 01/21/20 - 7:00 PM
606 Purdue -5.5 (-108) Pinnacle vs 605 Illinois
triple-dime bet
Analysis:
Whether this number drops or not....I'm on PURDUE for one reason only......PAYBACK!!
EMBARRASSED in Champagne by Illinois 63-37 just 16 Days ago.....The BOILERMAKERS & their FANS at MACKEY ARENA did not FORGET! HC Matt Painter will have the boys READY!
PURDUE by DOUBLE DIGITS!
UPDATE TUESDAY 7:55 AM PACIFIC TIME™- Up to minus 6 some places - still 5.5 at South Point, Coast, Caesar's & Circa in Las Vegas
UPDATE- 12:48 PM PACIFIC TIME TUESDAY- LINE IS STEADY BACK AT 5.5 PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE
Big TEN teams now (41-7) at home this season straight up including (9-1) straight up and (8-2) ATS last ten games
Pick Made: Jan 20 2020 5:17PM PST
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jonny numbers vegaskillers
butler +4
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jesse prante vegaskillers
new mexico -10.5
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uncle fitz vegaskillers
duke-miami under 151
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Root
Pinnacle - LSU
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Seabass: 300 Penguins, 300 Maryland, 300 NewMexico, 300 Utah St, 400 Duke, 400 LSU, 600 Wyoming, 1000 * Kentucky game under, 1000 * Clippers
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Jim feist
Dog game of month
Tcu +3
Inner circle
Akron -4
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VIP SPORTS LOCK CLUB
Duke -17.5
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Mississippi Kid
4U ATP/WTA Tennis ML Parlay
#893 Tsitsipas -500
#918 Agut -900
#2665 Osaka -500
#2601 Barty -700
#2314 Sabalenka -425
425/520
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Marco
4% TCU +3
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PickersMX
Lady Pickers
100 Dimes
Kansas -15
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