Monday 9/16/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NFL, NCAAF & MLB games.
Doug upstone
nfl
4 cleveland -6.5
__________________
Midwest NFL Handicapping
Cleveland -2.5
__________________
Lenny Stevens
10* Browns
__________________
NHL Teacher
Buffalo Sabres - Pittsburgh Penguins : Over 6
Edmonton Oilers - Winnipeg Jets : Over 6
Washington Capitals - Chicago Blackhawks : Over 6
__________________
Sharp Totals Club
2*Jets Under
__________________
Consensus Picks
CONS:9/16/19
NFL
5 U #289 Take Cle -6.5 ov NYJ
__________________
CleInsiderSports
NFL
Jets +6.5
MLB
White Sox ML (+210)
__________________
Root
Millionaire- Jets
__________________
From Northcoast group of handicappers:
------------------------------------
3 Rivers Sports
MLB
3* #911/912 Baltimore/Detroit under 9 (Means/Alexander)
Bezobets
3* Browns -6 -115
11-0 on the weekend.. 1 push
__________________
Jack Winningham
MLB
Baltimore -145
__________________
DR. CHUCK
Game: (911) Baltimore Orioles at (912) Detroit Tigers
Date/Time: Sep 16 2019 4:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: 1H Baltimore Orioles -0.5 (-110)
View Analysis
Means v. Alexander
Baltimore and Detroit are in an existential battle for the bottom and the top spot in the draft! The Tigers hold a pretty solid lead and the O's have improved a large amount over the absolute debacle of the 2018 season! John Means has been a season long bright spot for the O's this season as well as the lineup in spurts against LHP. Over the past month (back to 8/15) no team in the MLB has been better in my ratings again LHP than the Baltimore Orioles! The boast the highest wRAA and wRC+ and a .400 wOBA with a legitimately impressively low 15% K rate!
Tyler Alexander is getting the start for the Tigers this afternoon...and if you need any evidence they are tossing their hands in the air...he was a starter in July and into August and was quite pitiful. He was relegated to the bullpen and has been almost exactly no better since that...so of course he gets the ball to open tonight's game.
I trust Means to come out hot as in his last 6 starts he has almost always been heading for a quality start and/or nailed it hard...often dominating the beginning of games...but the O's can put some runs up again Alexander in an expanded role and we can cash this and worry litle about what happens late in this game...as the Tigers solidify the spot at the top of the 2020 MLB Draft.
__________________
Miller locks
7:40 pm est mlb
san diego padres vs. Milwaukee brewers
pick: Milwaukee brewers (-160)
risk: 11 units
7:40 pm est mlb
chicago white sox vs. Minnesota twins
pick: Minnesota twins -1.5 (-127)
risk: 11 units
8:15 pm est nfl
cleveland browns vs. New york jets
pick: New york jets (+226)
risk: 11 units
10:07 pm est mlb
kansas city royals vs. Oakland athletics
pick: Oakland athletics -1.5 (-147)
risk: 11 units
__________________
Sleepy j
3 unit Browns -6.5
__________________
Goodfella mlb
3 unit GOM
Washington / st louis over 8
__________________
+EV: NFL 4u: 289 Cleveland Browns ov26 -115 (Team Total Points) (Monday, September 16th)
__________________
Dwayne Bryant
4% Jets +6.5
__________________
NFAC
jets +7 -120 800
Jets over 45.5 800
__________________
Al Demarco
Top-Rate 15 Dime Release
browns
__________________
Bobby Valentino
75 DIME
Winner # 6 of 7
Monday Must-Play Lock
jets
__________________
MLB(Bob Balfe)
Rotation #901-902
Brewers -160 over Padres
Davies/Richards
I am not a huge fan of playing money lines this high, but the Brewers are the hottest team in baseball and just one game out of a playoff spot. The Padres will start Garrett Richards who is 14 months removed from Tommy John. I imagine he only pitches 2-3 innings in his debut this year. This is a great feel good story, but it’s a bullpen start tonight. Take the Brewers.
__________________
Fezzik | NFL Side - Monday, Sep 16 2019 8:15PM
290 NYJ 6.5(-110) Pinnacle vs 289 CLE double-dime bet
Analysis: If you can find +7-120 that is better.
PROP BET: No score 1st 6:30, -110, 1 star. I expect a cautious start to this game.......
The market has overadjusted for Darnold
Fez has the dropoff to Siemian being 2 points
The Market moved from 2.5 to 6.5
OVERreaction
Darnold and Siemian have had comparable stats
AND Siemian has often played hurt
(which would have lowered his past stats)
Fez is ON the Jets +6.5
__________________
ROB VENOBASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (913) Chicago White Sox at (914) Minnesota Twins
Date/Time: Sep 16 2019 7:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-125)
__________________
dr. chuck
Game: (911) Baltimore Orioles at (912) Detroit Tigers
Date/Time: Sep 16 2019 4:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: 1H Baltimore Orioles -0.5 (-110)
View Analysis
Means v. Alexander
Baltimore and Detroit are in an existential battle for the bottom and the top spot in the draft! The Tigers hold a pretty solid lead and the O's have improved a large amount over the absolute debacle of the 2018 season! John Means has been a season long bright spot for the O's this season as well as the lineup in spurts against LHP. Over the past month (back to 8/15) no team in the MLB has been better in my ratings again LHP than the Baltimore Orioles! The boast the highest wRAA and wRC+ and a .400 wOBA with a legitimately impressively low 15% K rate!
Tyler Alexander is getting the start for the Tigers this afternoon...and if you need any evidence they are tossing their hands in the air...he was a starter in July and into August and was quite pitiful. He was relegated to the bullpen and has been almost exactly no better since that...so of course he gets the ball to open tonight's game.
I trust Means to come out hot as in his last 6 starts he has almost always been heading for a quality start and/or nailed it hard...often dominating the beginning of games...but the O's can put some runs up again Alexander in an expanded role and we can cash this and worry litle about what happens late in this game...as the Tigers solidify the spot at the top of the 2020 MLB Draft.
Lopez underrated, Twins following Indians series letdown FLYER
Game: (913) Chicago White Sox at (914) Minnesota Twins
Date/Time: Sep 16 2019 7:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 2%
Play: Chicago White Sox +217
View Analysis
Game: (909) Miami Marlins at (910) Arizona Diamondbacks
Date/Time: Sep 16 2019 9:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: 1H Total Under 5.0 (-110)
View Analysis
Pablo v. Ray
2 teams flat out reeling right now...with the Dbacks having all kinds trouble with the Reds and Mets the past week plus and losing 8 of 12 heading down the playoff stretch. They scored a whopping 6 runs total in the weekend Reds series...and they invite in the Fish who face a second straight west coast series after they spent the weekend in the Bay agains the Giants and scored a total of 5 runs!
Neither team can get any offense going and now they have 2 plus pitchers on the mound with Lopez and Ray who miss a TON of bats and especially early it is hard to imagine either offense comes out swinging whatsoever. I also really do like the Under if you can get a 9 at one of your outs.
Gerry Davis behind the plate is also nearly a 65% Under play in the NL this season and a couple of struggling mightily lineups with pitchers batting...the Under 5 here sure feels like it might be the VALUE play of the whole board!
Check this play out and watch goose eggs go up while you watch the MNF game and hope it keeps your interest!
Game: (915) Kansas City Royals at (916) Oakland Athletics
Date/Time: Sep 16 2019 10:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Oakland Athletics -1.5 (-145)
View Analysis
Sparkman v. Roark
Crazy price for a run line even with this being the home team. Sparkman is an easy fade...and even being a RHP with the A's even more stellar against LHP...winning this by 2 runs despite the merely 8 team at bats shouldn't be all that difficult and over earlier than late in this contest!
__________________
Dime Man - Twins Nationals under
Champagne - Brewers
__________________
Teyas sport
9/16/2019
guarantee nfl cleveland under 44 1/2
bonus plays nfl cleveland -6 1/2
9/16/2019
guarantee mlb oakland over 9 1/2
bonus plays mlb baltimore -148 milwaukee -158 st.louis under 8 colorado over 13 1/2
__________________
TONY FINN
BIG TICKET 5% NL GAME ~ MONTH 13-5
Game: (903) Washington Nationals at (904) St. Louis Cardinals
Date/Time: Sep 16 2019 7:45 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Washington Nationals -133
View Analysis
PLAY: Washington Nationals -133 (play is good to -150)
5% confidence rating
LIST PITCHERS: Strasburg and Hudson
(903) Washington Nationals at (904) St. Louis Cardinals
The Nationals and Cardinals tangle on Monday Night at Busch Stadium in downtown St Louis. Both National League clubs are fighting for postseason rights. The Nationals head into Monday night's contest with the top spot in the NL wild card. The Cardinals rest in first place in the NL Central with a two game edge on second place Chicago. The Nationals have a one-and-one-half-game lead over the same Chicago Cubs who have a one game lead over divinely foe Milwaukee for the second spot in the wild card chase.
Nationals' right-hander Anibal Sanchez defeated his former employer for the third time this season, Howie Kendrick homered and drove in three runs and the Nationals avoided a three-game sweep at the hands of NL East first place Atlanta on Sunday.
Ryan Braun hit a grand slam in the ninth inning of Sunday's game against the NL Central first place Cards. Bruan's homerun was the go-ahead hit against St Louis reliever Junior Fernandez and it came with two outs in the ninth inning. St Louis closer Carlos Martinez spent Saturday night in a hospital due to respiratory issues and was not at the ballpark Sunday.
Washington Nationals (82-66) at St. Louis Cardinals (83-66)
The Nats send right-hander Stephen Strasburg (17-6, 3.49) to the Busch mound to oppose righty Dakota Hudson (15-7, 3.38). At first glance one that didn't know and understand the skill set of Monday night's starters would think they were basically equal if for nothing else their similar surface numbers (wins/losses and ERA).
The truth is that there is very little similar when comparing the two right-handed starters.
Nationals
Strasburg earned his seventeenth win on Wednesday night in Minnesota. The Nationals defeated The Twins by a 6-2 final in which Strasburg threw six innings of two run baseball. Strasburg has been unusually durable and his command has become elite. Strasburg has 229 strikeouts with just 49 walks in 191 innings this season.
The righty has one start against the Birds this year and that start was a win. In 6.2 innings of work against the Cardinals this year the Nats No. 2 has a 1.35 ERA with two walks against nine strikeouts.
Cardinals
Hudson comes off a turn in which he allowed one hit in six innings in a win 10-0 over the Giants at Busch Stadium. On the year, Hudson has now made 30 starts and has a 3.38 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP. The delta between his ERA and his xFIP point to not just batted ball luck but extreme fortune on balls hit in play against Hudson.
His strikeout rate is well below average (17% K) and he walks far too many batters (11% BB) for a right-hander that is below league average in recording swinging strikes. The primary variable in Hudson being successful is twofold. That being the batted ball luck I mentioned previously. And as is the case for all big league pitchers the combination of less-than swinging strikes and 90-plus mph exit velocity off the oppositions bats with a 10-plus percent bases on balls ratio is nothing short of a time bomb waiting to implode.
The bare naked truth is that Strasburg is Cy Young worthy and is smack-dab in the middle of the award conversation. He enters tonight's big game and important series in a matchup of starting pitching that isn't close. And in a match that he is easily the most likely to lead his team and mates to a victory he is head and shoulder and night and day better on a day he doesn't have his elite command that that of St Louis' schedule first inning arm Hudson.
WASHINGTON NATIONALS -133
__________________
Seabass : 400 nationals game under , 400 cubs , 400 Mets game over , 400 Arizona RL, 300 jets , 800 * jets game over
__________________
charlie
jets +6.5
fiw I don't have a clue who the hell Charlie is
__________________
Steve merrill
10* RL steamroller
Oak-1.5
__________________