Monday 9/23/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NFL, NCAAF & MLB games.
Teyas Sports
9/23/2019
GUARANTEE NFL WASHINGTON OVER 41
BONUS PLAY NFL WASHINGTON +4
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DR. CHUCK
FOOTBALL PLAYS
Game: (489) Chicago Bears at (490) Washington Redskins
Date/Time: Sep 23 2019 8:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Total Under 42.0 (-104)
View Analysis
Redskins have looked quite decent to above average on offense...despite being led by Case Keenum and a slew of receivers no one knows...no Jordan Reed yet and for the game in question...no Guice as the primary back either!
Skins came out HOT in both the losses they've suffered so far...but as the game normalized the better divisional opponent took over and other than garbage time TDs the game came down to the wire not in doubt...either week 1 or 2. The game they just played against the Boys yielded just 4.6 yards per play and featured just 9 drives. The defense Keenum has faced with his new team improved vastly from the Eagles to the Cowboys....and will now take a further step up facing the Bears on Monday night. What the Bears have lacked while they possessed the ball they have made up for by being even better than they were last year on the defensive end.
Bears defense has given up a total of 24 points despite going 1-1...and the Nagy/Trubisky combo ALMOST letting them down to the tune of 0-2 were it not for a season saving FG as time expired in Denver. Trubisky has looked anything but good and now gets a second straight road start no matter how lacking the opponent may be the spot ain't good for the Bears offense at all...and while the defense has allowed 24 points their offense has put just 19 points on the board for the Super Fans.
Vegas is certainly baiting us here with a stand alone game and knowing the action will be hot and heavy from come one come all bettors...and the majority of bettors aren't running to any windows to bet an Under....no matter what defenses are on display...and.when a total pops at 42 they are desperate!
I will have further analysis to come....but want to make sure everyone has a chance at such a great number!
41 and 41.5 (buy the hook) are both solid spots and key numbers as well....maybe not quite to the 5% range but the winner of this game likely has 20 points at most!
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Pointwise phones
2 chicago
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R J White
UNDER 41 CHICAGO @ WASHINGTON | 9/23 | 8:15 PM EDT
THU 9/19
I've already hit the spread in this game, but I'm going to come back around and take the Under as well. Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears offense have looked pretty awful so far, and I don't know how you trust them on the road. But Chicago has one of the best defenses in the league, and you have to figure they'll show up in primetime. This should be just like the first two Bears game, with not a lot of scoring in the cards.
13-7 IN LAST 20 NFL PICKS | +529
2-1 IN LAST 3 WAS O/U PICKS | +90
ATLANTA +1.5
ATLANTA @ INDIANAPOLIS | 9/22 | 1:00 PM EDT
THU 9/19
The Falcons come into this game as the healthier team, with the Colts banged up in particular on defense. I like the matchup of Matt Ryan vs. Jacoby Brissett considering that we're on the side getting points. The Falcons defense ranks top eight in net yards allowed per pass attempt and yards allowed per rush attempt, so that defense has played well through two weeks despite tough matchups. The Falcons' receiving weapons should win out in this battle, and I like the Falcons in an indoor game when they go on the road.
13-7 IN LAST 20 NFL PICKS | +529
21-7-1 IN LAST 29 IND ATS PICKS | +1317
24-11 IN LAST 35 ATL ATS PICKS | +1176
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Mike Tierney
WASHINGTON +4
CHICAGO @ WASHINGTON | 9/23 | 8:15 PM EDT
WED 9/18
The Redskins’ flailing defense is about to get some relief. Chicago has scored only 19 points -- three on the final play of its last game on a mile-long field goal. QB Mitch Trubisky has not caught onto coach Matt Nagy’s offense. No such team should be spotting four points to anyone aside from Miami. In fact, Washington QB Case Keenum, a placeholder for rookie Dwayne Haskins, has been better than Trubisky. An extra day to prepare could allow various injured Redskins enough time to mend. If the heightened home-field advantage on Monday night kicks in, the ’Skins, in desperation mode at 0-2, could win outright.
8-4 IN LAST 12 NFL ATS PICKS | +355
13-5 IN LAST 18 WAS ATS PICKS | +743
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Emory Hunt
WASHINGTON +4
CHICAGO @ WASHINGTON | 9/23 | 8:15 PM EDT
WED 9/18
This Bears defense is still every bit as good as advertised, which is good because the offense has been anemic and quarterback Mitch Trubisky seems to be regressing week to week. Trubisky has only thrown for 238 yards and doesn't have a passing TD so far en route to a 22.1 QBR. Washington had looked downright capable in the first half of games against Philadelphia and Dallas, only to fade in both down the stretch. This is a game for the Redskins to finally figure it out for four quarters, and for more questions about Trubisky to be asked in Chicago.
3-1 IN LAST 4 NFL ATS PICKS | +190
13-7 IN LAST 20 WAS ATS PICKS | +511
9-7-1 IN LAST 17 CHI ATS PICKS | +124
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Joe Gavazzi
3% Chicago (-3-) 8:15 PM ET Monday
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Stephen Oh
BOSTON +1.5
BOSTON @ TAMPA BAY | 9/23 | 7:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:38 PM
Take the Red Sox on the run line Monday at -119, as they're covering in about two-thirds of my simulations. Boston has been eliminated but has been very competitive in this series, including a 7-4 win Sunday.
169-135 IN LAST 304 MLB PICKS | +2926
11-5 IN LAST 16 TB ATS PICKS | +500
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Tom Fornelli
WASHINGTON +4
CHICAGO @ WASHINGTON | 9/23 | 8:15 PM EDT
THU 9/19
Matt Nagy does not believe in his quarterback. That was evident in Chicago's offensive gameplan against Denver on the road last weekend, and it will be clear again on the road against Washington. The Bears are going to win this game, but if his coach isn't willing to, why should I trust Mitch Trubisky as a road favorite?
9-3 IN LAST 12 NFL PICKS | +574
3-1 IN LAST 4 WAS ATS PICKS | +194
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Mti stl -145
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Marco
3% Bears -5
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Brandon Lang
60 Dimes - Washington Redskins First Half +3
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CleInsiderSports
MLB
Mets ML (-230)
NFL
Bears/Redskins OVER 41
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Root
Mill/ Washington
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MTI
4.5-Star Chicago at Washington UNDER 41 - The Bears qualify for a league-wide, multi-season system involving good teams playing their second straight road game. NFL teams that won more than ten games the previous regular season are 0-25 OU when they are off a road game and they are visiting a team that has averaged more than 35.5 passes per game season-to-date. The SDQL text is:
A and 10=20160103
The Redskins were outgained 474-to-265 by the Cowboys last week, so the Bears have to feel like they are not going to be shut down by the Redskins defense. This gives them the luxury of playing conservatively on offense and waiting for the Redskins to shoot themselves in the foot. Indeed. Teams that won more than ten games the previous regular season are 0-19 OU on grass when they are off a win as a road favorite and they are facing a team that allowed at least 395 yards in their previous game. The SDQL for this one is:
surface=grass and 10=395 and date>=20151000
Fitting in nicely to this line of reasoning is the fact that the Bears are 0-8 OU (-12.50 ppg) when facing a team with a lower regular season win line.
team=Bears and RSWL>o:RSWL and date>=20161204
The Redskins also qualify for a recently emerging system that states, Teams are 0-15 OU (-8.47 ppg) at home on grass after a loss as a home dog. This one has produced two UNDERS this season.
The Bears have scored a total of 19 points in their first two games this season. The Redskins have a chance here if they dont give the ball away, and this indicates a low scoring game. Washington is 0-8 OU facing a team that is averaging more first downs than offensive points. The SDQL here is:
team=Redskins and oS(7*RTD+7*PTD+3*FG)=20171123
In their last four games in this spot, the Redskins have scored: 10, 9, 13 and 16 points.
Finally, it is just worth mentioning that Washington is 0-11 OU as a dog on grass when they are off a TD-plus loss in which they did not have a field goal. The SDQL text is:
team=Redskins and D and surface=grass and p:margin= 2010
In their two qualifying games from last season in this spot they scored 16 points in each game and won them both. We make the play the UNDER.
MTis FORECAST: REDSKINS 16 Bears 13
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parlaypayoff
2-Teamer
Redskins +5.5
OVER 41 Bears/Redskins
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From Northcoast group of handicappers:
Friends of Mike Lee
MLB
3* #959/960 Boston/Tampa Bay OVER 8.5
Pinnacle Sports Picks
Washington Redskins +5.5
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ROB VENO
BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (951) Philadelphia Phillies at (952) Washington Nationals
Date/Time: Sep 23 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Washington Nationals -1.5 (-103)
View Analysis
Game: (955) St. Louis Cardinals at (956) Arizona Diamondbacks
Date/Time: Sep 23 2019 9:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+110)
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teyas sports
9/23/2019
guarantee nfl washington over 41
bonus play nfl washington +4
ADDED:
guarantee mlb boston over 8 1/2
bonus plays mlb boston +175 ny mets over 8 1/2 st. Louis -145 & under 9
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Miller locks
8:15 pm est nfl
chicago bears vs. Washington redskins
pick: Washington redskins +5 (-100)
risk: 11 units
8:15 pm est nfl
chicago bears vs. Washington redskins
pick: Under 42 (-117)
risk: 11 units
9:40 pm est mlb
st. Louis cardinals vs. Arizona diamondbacks
pick: St. Louis cardinals (-137)
risk: 11 units
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Northcoast Marquee
Bears Under 41
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Tom Stryker
100% NFL MONDAY NIGHT ELITE INFO WAGER
Redskins
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Pythagorean picks:
1* Star pick: Washington Redskins (point spread) - This is a straight bet, NOT a series bet. If the Redskins lose today, do not double up on them again next time. We will record the Redskins as a loss if they lose today, and a win if they win today on this 100% pure plain and simple straight wager.
All the best,
The Champ Team
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Anyone have Rocketman picks today
Ralph Michaels 4% [NFL] (489) Chicago Bears at (490) Washington Redskins
Time: 8:15 PM EDT Chicago Bears -5.5 (-112)
Analysis:
#489 Chicago -5.5
On the Bears side we have the leagues best D, or at least to 3, while the Redskins have allowed 6.7 yards/play. When looking at the offenses the Skins surprised the Eagles jumping out to a 21-0 lead but gained just 377 the last 6 quarters.With Washington averaging just 38 YPG rushing and 2.5 YPC Case Keenum will be pressured often. Bears offense hasn't looked good but can make a case that GB and Den and a much better duo than the Redskins have faced.
Just out a few minutes ago
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Executive Sportsline
NFL
200%
Chicago -5
over Washington
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Seabass : 400 Mets RL , 300 Red Sox , 400 dbacks game under , 400 2 team teaser redskins and the over
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NFL(Bob Balfe)
8:15 PM EST
Rotation #489-490
Bears -5 over Redskins
Bears/Redskins Over 41
Mitch Trubisky has been historically bad in prime time matchups. Could it be he played against good defenses? Who knows, but tonight he is facing a Redskins Defense that is bad. To make matter worse the Redskins are very thin in their already bad secondary. Quinton Dunbar is hurt, Josh Norman has been beaten this year, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie just went on IR, they released Stroman earlier this year and the secondary has been lost. Trey Burton is working his way back to form for the Bears and I believe Trubisky has a rock solid night tonight. The Redskins are not as bad as their record. This team has put up points, but they can’t play four full quarters and have a tendency to give up any lead they have. I think the Bears are an overall better football team and over four quarters should pull away. I am not sold on Jay Gruden being a head coach in this league. The NFL had a conference call on holding penalties over the weekend because the Thursday Night Game was unwatchable. This weekend holding calls were down which is huge for offenses in this league. 41 points is low in the NFL and I would only consider taking an under with two good defenses. Washington’s Defense is not good. I think the Bears can put up 30 points tonight. Chicago played two pretty good defenses to start the year so I am not concerned just yet with them moving the football. I think this is a perfect scenario to play the side and total. Take the Bears and the Over.
MLB
7:10 PM EST
Rotation #959-960
Red Sox +1.5 runs over Rays -120
Cachin/Snell
The Red Sox season is over, but they would love to send Tampa golfing with them.The Rays are in a wild card showdown with the Indians.Boston is a good road team and they can put up runs.On any given night they can simply outscore you.This line is set so high because Tampa has so much to play for while the Red Sox don’t.Tampa is not playing their best baseball when it matters.I like the run line here because we are getting another run right off the bat and the Rays would bat one less time being the home team if they win the game.Take the Red Sox run line +1.5 runs -120.
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Virgobbi Sports 9/23:
Was +5 (+102)
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