Saturday 8/31/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NFL, NCAAF & MLB games.
Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Aug 31 2019 7:00PM
192 Florida St. -4.0(-105) Pinnacle vs 191 Boise St. triple-dime bet
Analysis: 3-star (192) Florida St -4 over Boise St in Jacksonville, FL. 7:00pm ET on Saturday, August 31st. I'm buying a Florida State team that is off their worst season since 1976 as I expect to see some regression to the mean here. The Seminoles return 16 starters and are much improved on both sides of the ball. Obviously, year one under head coach Willie Taggart wasn't a good look. However, note that in his career, his teams improved upon the previous year's season win total in 6 of his previous 8 years (one win total remained the same). I reached out to an FSU insider this week that watches practice each day and the first week so far has looked good for the Noles. Meanwhile, Boise St has to replace a 4-year starting QB, a 1,400-yard rusher and their top 2 receivers. This game will be played in Jacksonville and as of a few weeks ago, FSU has sold 34,000 tickets for the game. Boise State requested only 2,500 tickets. There will be at least 90% Florida St fans in the crowd.
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Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Aug 31 2019 10:30PM
214 Southern Cal -10.0(-110) William Hill vs 213 Fresno St. triple-dime bet
Analysis:
USC needs a feel-good win here after a disappointing 2018 season. Head coach Clay Helton is on the hot seat but he did make a great hire in bringing in O.C. Graham Harrell from North Texas whose offenses averaged 35 ppg the last two years. Harrell inherits a lot of talent as QB JT Daniels is back after a "so-so" true freshman season along with one of the best sets of WR's in the country. Meanwhile, Fresno St is being over-priced because the Bulldogs are coming off their best season in school history (12 wins). I look for the Bulldogs to take a couple steps back this season as they are No. 129 in the country in returning experience with only 9 starters back. Fresno will be starting a brand new QB at night in a freshly renovated L.A. Coliseum. The Trojans should roll here.
I like this pick as a 3-star up to -12.5...2-star from -13 to -13.5. 1-star at -14.
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Dave Cokin:
164 Nebraska -34
169 Ball State +17
181 South Carolina -7.5 (wait on this one to see if you can get -7, if not -7.5 is okay)
193 SMU +2.5
204 Pittsburgh +3
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Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Aug 31 2019 8:00PM
209 Louisiana Tech 21.0(-110) Westgate vs 210 Texas single-dime bet
Analysis: 1-star (209) Louisiana Tech +21 over TEXAS. 8:00pm ET on Saturday, August 31st.
I think Texas is one of the most overrated teams in the country this year. The Longhorns have just 8 returning starters (tied for last in country)as they lose their leading rusher, leading receiver and entire front 7 on defense. However I feel there was an overreaction to their Sugar Bowl win vs an un-motivated Georgia team and note that the Horns won 10 games last year but 7 of those games were by a TD or less. Tom Herman is a great underdog coach but in his career as a favorite, he is just 14-22-2 ATS (39%). Note that Texas has failed to cover as a double-digit favorite in each of their previous two season openers (lost both games outright to Maryland). Meanwhile, Louisiana Tech head coach Skip Holtz is on a 14-4-1 ATS run as a road underdog. Finally, Texas has a huge look-ahead game vs LSU on deck.
Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Aug 31 2019 4:00PM
187 Virginia Tech -3.5(-110) Westgate vs 188 Boston College single-dime bet
Analysis: 1-star (187) Virginia Tech -3.5 over BOSTON COLLEGE. 4:00pm ET on Saturday, August 31st.
I have this line power-rated at VT -6.5. The mis-pricing here comes with a Virginia Tech team that had their first losing season since 1992 last year. However, this year's team will be much improved with 16 returning starters including 10 on the defensive side. The Hokies D should be plenty motivated in the final year under long-time defensive coordinator Bud Foster. As far as Boston College goes, I expect the Eagles to take a step back this season especially with only 9 returning starters. The betting public usually just looks at the skill positions and BC does return their starting QB, RB and top WR. However, they are woefully inexperienced in most other areas including the defensive secondary.
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FEZZIK
3*
Southern Cal -10
NDame UNDER 9.5 wins -150 2 stars
Texas UNDER 9 wins 2 stars
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SPARTAN
2*
Wyoming +14.5
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LV Wolf
Aub -3
N Western 7 (-125)
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Stanford Steve
8/31/19 Ohio State vs Florida Atlantic Over 63.5
8/31/19 Northwestern + 6.5 vs Stanford
8/31/19 Kentucky vs Toledo Under 61.5
8/31/19 Boston College + 5 vs Virginia Tech
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thelinebacker
Aub -3.5 ($113 bet for $100 bettor)
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Alex B. Smith Sports
College Football
8/31 2* Florida State -4.5 (Best Bet)
8/31 1* Liberty +18.5
8/31 1* Northern Illinois -4 -120
8/31 1* Nebraska -22 (First Half)
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Norm Hitzges' Picks of the Pole
Double Play
Florida State -6.5 over Boise State
Single Plays
Toledo +11.5 over Kentucky
Georgia Southern +27.5 over LSU
Georgia -21 over Vandy
Louisiana Tech +20.5 over Texas
Northwestern--Stanford under 47.5
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+EV: CFB 4u: 185 Northwestern Wildcats +6.5 -105 (Saturday, August 31st)
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LV Wolf
New Mexico St Over 65
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Marc Lawrence
adding LA TECH
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+EV: MLB 4u: 904 Chicago Cubs -147 (Z Davies | C Hamels) (Saturday, August 31st)
+EV: CFB 4u: 185 Northwestern Wildcats +6.5 -105 (Saturday, August 31st)
+EV: MLB 4u: 912 Arizona +138 (C Kershaw | R Ray) (Saturday, August 31st)
+EV: UFC 4u: Wu Yanan +127 (UFC on ESPN+ 15) (Saturday, August 31st)
+EV: UFC 4u: Andre Soukhamthath -150 (UFC on ESPN+ 15) (Saturday, August 31st)
+EV: UFC 4u: Anthony Hernandez -145 (UFC on ESPN+ 15) (Saturday, August 31st)
+EV: UFC 2u: Khadis Ibragimov -250 (UFC on ESPN+ 15) (Saturday, August 31st)
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Virgobbi Sports
CO ST +10.5 (+102)
TOLEDO +11.5 (-110)
FRESNO +13.5 (-105)
SOUTH AL +35.5 (-110)
3-Team Parlay: CO ST+, TOL + & FRES (+635)
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Gold Sheet
Ole Miss
Va Tech
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NFAC
CFB
185) NORTHWESTERN +7 (-120)…($900) via 5dimes
208) AUBURN -2.5…($750)
200) LSU -29.5…($600)
183) UNDER 58.5 DUKE-ALABAMA…($750) via BetUS
171) TOLEDO +12…($800) via Pinnacle
UFC
JESSICA ANDRADE -175 vs Zhang…($800) via Pinnacle
MIZUKI INOUE -140…($500) 5dimes at -135
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Allan Desrosiers
10 ohio st over
8 south car
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Lee Sterling
35 Toledo
30 Fla St
25 Ohio St
25 NW
20 Ole Miss
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BASEWINNER MLB BETTING PROJECTIONS (AUGUST 31)
The model has 4 sides and 1 total. There is 1 game with a side and total in the same game.
907 .25* MIA +280
908 .5* MIA/WAS u9 -115
918 .5* NYY -150
920 .25* TOR +158
922 .5* DET +135
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Golden Contender
At night noon the College Shocker is on Toledo. Game 171 at 12:00 eastern. The Rockets should pack plenty of punch here today as they fit a 2 powerful systems. First we are playing on teams off a bowl loss if they were a 7+ point favorite in game 1 as long as they are not laying 10 or more. This system has lost once in over 29 seasons if we add in one our subsets. Toledo has covered 19 of 26 on the road and MAC Conference teams are on a 9-0 spread run vs SEC Teams. The Wildcats are off a solid season but lost their best pass rusher and are 1-9 ats as a home favorite ad 0-5 ats on grass as well as 0-4 ats if the total is 56 to 63. Take Toledo. 4 UNITS
HIGH NOON Bonus plays on Ball St game 169 at 12 noon and Akron game 167 at 12 noon eastern. Both Akron and Ball ST are in week 1 systems where we play against game 1 favorites of 10 or more that won 5 or less last season vs a team that won 4 or more. The dogs in this system are 30-8 ats so we will back Akron and Ball St.- AKRON AND BALL ST PLAY FOR 3 UNITS EACH
The College Power system play on ABC is on Oregon plus the points at 8:00 eastern. The Ducks are dogs and qualify on our week 1 system that pertains to dogs of more thna 3 and less than 11 that were winning teams and went to a bowl last season. The Ducks have covered 13 of 14 as a non conference dog and are 5-0 in openers going 6-0 in August and have won 4 of 6 vs sec tEAMS. auburn is 0-5 ats on a neutral field when the total is 52 to 56 and has failed to cover 7 of 10 in non conference games. Play on Oregon.3 UNITS
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Sean michaels
25 DIME
Opening College
Game of the Year
oregon
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Asa
4* va -2.5
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Bobby Valentino
Top-Rated
100 DIME
Lead Pipe Lock Winner # 6 of 7, (and 8 of 10)
Revenge Game of the Year
UVA over Pitt
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Bezobets
3* Pitt +3 -118
3* Missouri -16 -110
2* Northwestern +6 -114
2* Boston College +4.5 -107
2* GA Southern +27.5 -110
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STEVE BUDIN - CEO
Saturday's Play
The Cali-Cartel has a 50 Dime play on Nebraska in the FIRST HALF at home against South Alabama. The Cornhuskers are -22 to -22 1/2 in the FIRST HALF as I put my site live at 8:30 eastern.
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Oskeim Sports
5% Louisiana Tech +21
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Pointwise Phones
4*toledo
4*oregon
3*georgia southern
3*notre dame
3*houston
3*eastern michigan
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Tom Stryker
18-6 ATS NCAA STEAMROLLER OF THE MONTH
Georgia
12-1 ATS NCAA NON-CONFERENCE ULTIMATE WAGER
Northwestern
19-4 ATS NCAA PRIMETIME STATEMENT BEST BET
Oregon
14-4 ATS NCAA HIGH ROLLER DATABASE INVESTMENT
USC
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Al DeMarco
Top-Rated 15 Dime College Football
30-Point Burial Blowout
Iowa -22
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Chris Jordan
Top-Rated
1000♦
College Football
Opening Dog of the Year
Double-digit pup could win outright
Toledo + 10.5
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NCAA Football(Bob Balfe)
4:00 PM EST
Rotation #187-188
Virginia Tech -4 over Boston College
There are a few thing that I like about Boston College. Anthony Brown is an experienced quarterback and AJ Dillon is always a home run threat at running back, but this team did lose a lot on their offensive line and Brown is going to need to pump up his completion numbers if he wants to make this team a threat.The real key in this game is the defenses.Bud Foster’s Defense for Virginia Tech returns a lot of talent while Boston College only brings back 4 of their top 11 tacklers from a season ago and has absolutely no depth.I believe Ryan Willis will continue to get better as a QB for the Hokies and Tech has a little bit more in the tank today on the road.Vegas seems to agree by making them the actual favorites.Take Virginia Tech.
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Derek Hayes
(CFB) - $300 East Carolina +17.5
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Brandon Watson
CFB
Boise State
Alabama
Boston College
Georgia
Oregon
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Rockdeman Sports
(CFB Underdog of the Day) - Toledo +10.5
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CleInsiderSports (5-4 L5 days)
MLB
Pirates ML (-120)
NCAAF
Boston College +4.5
Vanderbilt +22.5
Pittsburgh +2.5
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Sportsbook breakers
Mlb
Bos +100
Az +125
Ncaaf
Usc -13.5
Memphis under 66
Fsu -6.5
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Sky Blue Picks
Ohio State -27.5
LSU -27.5
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From Northcoast group of handicappers:
3 Rivers Sports
MLB
4* #919/920 Houston/Toronto OVER 10.5 (Valdez/Buchholz)
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Gavazzi
Saturday August 31st
#165 3% East Carolina (+17.5) Noon EST
#171 3% Toledo (+11.5) Noon EST
#174 3% LA-Lafayette (+19.5) Noon EST
#180 3% Coastal Carolina (+6) 3:30 EST
#193 4% SMU (+3) 7:00 PM EST
#199 5% Georgia Southern (27.5) 7:30 PM EST
#201 3% Georgia (-22) 7:30 PM EST
#207 4% Oregon (+4) 7:30 PM EST
#209 4% La- Tech (+20.5) 8:00 PM EST
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Millerlocks
12:00 PM EST NCAAF
FLORIDA ATLANTIC VS. OHIO STATE
PICK: OHIO STATE -27.5 (-111)
RISK: 11 UNITS
3:30 PM EST NCAAF
DUKE VS. ALABAMA
PICK: OVER 56 (-109)
RISK: 11 UNITS
3:30 PM EST NCAAF
DUKE VS. ALABAMA (1ST HALF)
PICK: ALABAMA -21 (+100)
RISK: 11 UNITS
4:00 PM EST NCAAF
VIRGINIA TECH VS. BOSTON COLLEGE
PICK: BOSTON COLLEGE +4.5 (-106)
RISK: 11 UNITS
7:30 PM EST NCAAF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE VS. MICHIGAN
PICK: MICHIGAN -34.5 (-107)
RISK: 11 UNITS
7:30 PM EST NCAAF
MIAMI OHIO VS. IOWA
PICK: UNDER 46.5 (-109)
RISK: 11 UNITS
7:30 PM EST NCAAF
GEORGIA SOUTHERN VS. LSU
PICK: LSU -27 (-109)
RISK: 11 UNITS
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